Dodgers Spend Starter Money on Ryu Hyun-Jin

One move over the weekend is getting all the negative attention today, but there was another big acquisition that might have an even slimmer chance of working out for the organization in question: The Dodgers signed Korean lefty Ryu Hyun-Jin to a six-year, $36-million contract. When added to his $25.7 million posting fee, that outlay means that the Dodgers are locked into more than $60 million for a pitcher that hasn’t yet touched the minor leagues. That’s starter money, and it’s unclear that Ryu is a lock to be a starter. But, yah, it’s only money… right?

The comp that comes up most of the time is David Wells. And hey, it’s not a terrible comp. Wells had a four-pitch mix, threw with his left hand, didn’t have plus-plus velocity, and oh yeah, he was “stout” and quirky. Ryu checks in over 220 pounds even though he’s two inches shorter than Wells, and tales of his velocity have begun to tail off, up from he ‘maxes out at 95‘ to he ‘sits 88-91‘ from Keith Law most recently.

Of course, Ryu’s changeup is his best pitch, while Wells was known for his curveball. You can scout Ryu yourself with this youtube playlist put together by Dan at MyKBO.net if you like (The video embedded below probably has the best angle). And it’s a little early to say that Ryu has a four-pitch mix like wells. He throws four pitches, yes, but by most accounts, his slider is not exciting and his curveball may just be a lefty-on-lefty type of pitch that won’t solve a platoon issue if righties like his changeup.

See where this is going? Doubt. If you are as friendly as possible to the Dodgers, you still can’t erase that overwhelming sense of doubt that surrounds the confident, smiling young Korean. Let’s say you use $5.5 million per win this season, and then, as you eye that $1.5 billion in new TV money coming towards the existing $3 billion in player salaries, you say that the price per win will rocket forward 25% in 2014. Settle back in around 10% inflation, and you get dollars per win that look like this over the next few years: $5.5, $6.9, $7.6, $8.3, $9.2, $10.1. Ryu would still have to be worth over a win and a third per season to be worth $60 million, and that’s a feat only ten relievers have managed in the last six years.

If he’s a starter, the bar lowers precipitously. 108 starters have accrued seven and a half wins over the last six years, including young (non-ace) lefties like Jon Niese and Derek Holland. Barry Zito was close!

Asking the 25-year-old Ryu to be better than the post-peak Zito doesn’t seem like much, but remember back to the Korean’s arsenal. We “know” he has two pitches, and we hope he has three. Let’s call him a prospect — he hasn’t pitched in the bigs yet, after all — and then we also know that his bust rate would then be over 50%, even if he is immediately a top-ten prospect here.

It’s fair to say that Korea might be a step above American Double-A ball, but it’s also almost impossible to get a decent sample size for translations. There are only five current major leaguers that played in the KBO before, and Travis Blackley was the most prominent of the group. Blackley struck out 16% of the batters he saw with Oakland last year, and he struck out 21% of the batters he saw in Korea. Ryu struck out 24% of the batters he saw over his career. He was about a five-win pitcher by FIP last season. This is not a Yu Darvish situation.

Ryu is in his peak, most likely. He’s been healthy most of the years he’s pitched (even after Tommy John surgery in high school), and he hasn’t thrown gaudy innings totals. He has two good pitches and is well regarded by scouts in his region, and the curveball could be a good enough third pitch to make him a starter in the bigs. He might also be seventh on the current Dodgers’ rotation depth chart (Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Josh Beckett, Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano, Chad Billingsley with Ted Lilly and Stephen Fife still kicking around), so he has some hurdles to overcome. If he falls just a little short, he’ll have to be better than Sean Marshall in the pen to make this contract worth while.

And though there are those that contend that the Dodgers are playing with monopoly money — their local television contract does outstrip the nearest contender by nine figures — that depth chart should tell you something. At some point, roster spots begin become scarce. Even the richest teams don’t want a $60 million man pitching to lefties in the seventh inning.

Thanks to Mike Petriello for this post, which was a helpful starting spot for me.




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Graphs: Baseball, Roto, Beer, brats (OK, no graphs for that...yet), repeat. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris.


33 Responses to “Dodgers Spend Starter Money on Ryu Hyun-Jin”

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  1. sunglasseskim says:

    i have been following ryu for quite awhile. as for the velocity report, i do think both sources are correct: when he is in no rush, he will sit at 88~91 ish range with fastball but deep into the game/when he is in the jam, he definitely can bring it up to 92~95 range. there was a game last year that he was hitting 92~94 consistently in 9th and 10th inning. he definitely can go deep into games but the question is, how will 162 game schedule affect his stamina? korean league have shorter season length (think it’s like 120 or 130 game ish per season) i would not be surprised if he has a strong start/middle and have feebler finish with velocity trending downwards in september.

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    • joe says:

      I’m sure he wont have to pitch 10 innings due to a bad bullpen, which I have red is the reason why he pitched so many innings in the KBO. If he can do that in the MLB though…. the guy is fascinating. Cant wait to see what he can do!

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    • Some guy who isn't a Sarcastocrat and probably is the opposite of Sarcastocrat says:

      Radar guns are volatile and subject to purposeful tampering to impress.

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  2. AK7007 says:

    I wonder a what point the owners decide to collude in such a way to prevent the Dodgers from spending like this and screwing everybody else over. Selig can’t be happy about contracts like this.

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  3. Average_Casey says:

    Seriously, I thought the Yankees spent way too much money in their heyday and the Dodgers make them look like minor leaguers in money spent. Thank goodness that Ned Colleti is their GM and not a really good one or they would be unstoppable.

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  4. jdsmitty says:

    as a dodger fan i dream about kasten being the little angel on colleti’s shoulder. id like to think hes the guy making the majority of decisions.

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  5. Ken Masters says:

    there seems to be some mistake. Ryu is Japanese:

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  6. Kyle says:

    His delivery and body language sure look like CC Sabathia’s, don’t they?

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  7. The Foils says:

    Look, I get that the KBO is not the major leagues and that it’s hard to

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    • The Foils says:

      Oh well, the rest was something about… but if you really think that one of South Korea’s absolute best pitchers is not likely to be better over the next six years than Zito was over the last six… and then some kind of half-hearted ghost of Kim Jon-il joke.

      I dunno. Just seems mean.

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      • Eno Sarris says:
        FanGraphs Supporting Member

        I did not mean to denigrate Koreans or Ryu in particular. I’m German-Jamaican-American! The best German pitcher I know is named Pretzels and wasn’t good. The best Jamaican pitcher is Justin Masterson.

        Point was that the doesn’t have the raw stuff of a Yu Darvish, so he’s more like buying a good but not great starting pitcher prospect, and half of those bust. And if he turns out be a workable reliever, the Dodgers still lose because of the contract.

        And Zito is a decent pitcher once you get past the contract.

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      • chuckb says:

        The best German pitcher I know is named Bock.

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  8. Nate S says:

    Something else to consider is that LA has a huge Korean population. If Ryu were able to drum up interest in the Korean community as Chan Ho Park did, the deal could also have some off-the-field value.

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    • CJ says:

      I’m Korean, so I’m inclined to agree that marketing aspect can tip the balance at least somewhat. However, roster spot IS very precious for money-is-no-object teams like the Yankees (I should know, I’ve been a Yankee fan for ~20 years) and apparently Dodgers. No room for sentimental (old veterans) or marketing choice(s) if your goal is to maximize the talent on your roster.

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    • Eric says:

      as if the Dodgers need any more off-the-field value right now

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  9. JLed says:

    Best part of that embedded video? Hee-Seop Choi sighting (and whiffing) at :53 mark.

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  10. Hurtlockertwo says:

    I can’t wait for the crying when all this money doesn’t lead to the Dodgers getting into the post season. But I’m a Giants fan and annually hope the Dodgers go down the toilet.

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  11. Pops says:

    Is this guy going to get his own fangraphs page?

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  12. Dicks says:

    So what do you think now?

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    • Eno Sarris says:
      FanGraphs Supporting Member

      Yeah, obviously I might have whiffed on this one. Been trying to figure it out all year. I think his arm speed is the same on his three primary pitches, so even if he doesn’t have good fastball velocity and the slider is only okay, batters don’t know what’s coming. Still, given the fact that he’s starting at 89/90 mph, and can only go down, I’m very interested in seeing what the rest of his career will look like. I’m not assuming he’ll remain this dominant.

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