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Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 10/17/13

Posted By Eno Sarris On October 17, 2013 @ 12:39 pm In Chat | No Comments

12:40
Eno Sarris: Hope you guys show! Sorry for being late. Sick. Tough morning.
12:56
Eno Sarris: Gonna get going! Not many of us today!
12:56
Comment From Steve 1
Hi Eno! Sorry no one is here
12:56
Eno Sarris: It’s not your fault! You’re here!
12:56
Comment From Jake
Please don’t be dead, Eno
12:56
Eno Sarris: Just bronchitis.

12:56
Comment From larrya
Any wasted craft brews in the tigers celebration?
12:56
Eno Sarris: All non-alcoholic terrible-smelling champagne.
12:56
Comment From Marcus A.
I’m right there with you today Eno! Staying home from class because I’m sick
12:56
Eno Sarris: let’s roll up in front of the tv with some soup then.
12:56
Comment From GSon
it’s not the quantity.. it’s the quality..
12:57
Eno Sarris: Motion/ocean.
12:57
Comment From person hscer
I’m here!
12:57
Eno Sarris: Good news.
12:57
Comment From Spencer
What are the Braves gonna do with papa Uggs and BJ? Huddy? I assume McCann has his bags already packed…
12:58
Eno Sarris: I actually don’t assume that about McCann — Gattis might be better in the role he’s in — but they have some decisions to make. I bet they let Hudson go. They’ll look hard at cutting Uggla, and they’ll give BJ a chance to get it back, they have to. Cutting Uggla coesn’t cost them as bad.
12:58
Comment From Enos High School Principal
Young man, these chats are not just something you can show up to when you feel like it. Now I’m sorry if you’re not feeling well, but I’m going to need to see a note from your guardian to excuse this. Baseball fans depend on you and you don’t want to let them down do you? Ok, now run along to 3rd period.
12:58
Comment From 80scalled
Are we not men? We are Eno!
12:58
Eno Sarris: Chided interlude.
12:58
Comment From person hscer
Do you read the community blog? I’m asking for selfish reasons.
12:59
Eno Sarris: Yes! I agree that the projections on Harper might be too mellow.
12:59
Comment From Greg
What are the odds of the Dodgers winning the next two in St. Louis? Slim to none?
12:59
Eno Sarris: Well the next one is Kershaw, so that doesn’t seem crazy at all. But both, yeah the odds aren’t great.
12:59
Comment From Andrew
Hey we all have problems, like a baseball chat starting late, we don’t want to here about yours. Give us answers.
12:59
Eno Sarris: But there’s no question here.
12:59
Comment From Tom
I read your closer article at rotoworld and was a little surprised you put Holland in the top tier. I don’t see him being in the same class as Kimbrel, Chapman or Jansen.
1:00
Eno Sarris: It’s all about the command, I agree that he’s probably the shakiest inclusion. But Chapman once had questions about his command. And he’s had worries about his elbow too. Holland had a great season.
1:00
Comment From MLB
Instead of going with a postseason anthem every commercial break, we just decided to go with ads for TBS’ new comedy “Ground Floor.” Cool?
1:00
Eno Sarris: Ice pick. Ear.
1:01
Comment From GSon
Jim Leyland = Genius.. Moving a guy with 18 K’s out of the lead off spot for game four of the LCS..
1:01
Eno Sarris: There aren’t too many things that guy gets wrong though.
1:01
Comment From ryan
what are the arguments against “clutch”. To elaborate, isn’t there something to the idea that certain players can be more calm under stressful, higher leverage, situations?
1:03
Eno Sarris: The argument isn’t that it can’t exist, the argument is that we haven’t been able to show it in the numbers. In other words, there’s very little year to year correlation in clutch. And part of that might be ‘getting older.’ For example — Barry Bonds was not clutch, he couldn’t buy a hit in the postseason, then he won two straight games with walkoff homers against the Braves in the postseason and we stopped hearing about how unclutch he was. Small samples in extreme, especially postseason, situations. And players evolve and get more comfortable in those situations and skew the numbers.
1:03
Comment From GSon
who is Soleil Moon Frye and why should anyone care if she’s having a baby boy?
1:03
Eno Sarris: Don’t you say a bad thing about Punky Brewster. Don’t you do it.
1:03
Comment From Mike
better fantasy option next year: Bogaerts or Profat?
1:04
Eno Sarris: Gotta watch the offseason. Do the Red Sox re-sign Drew? Do the Rangers trade Profar to the Rays for Price? If both of them had jobs, I might take Profar actually. Profar can add in all five categories, Bogaerts doesn’t have a ton of speed.
1:04
Comment From Guest
Does Fangraphs carry postseason statistics?
1:04
Eno Sarris: It doesn’t now in leaderboard form. It does on the player pages when you select ‘show postseason.’
1:04
Comment From John
Will MooseTacos bounce back next year? My fantasy team needs it
1:05
Eno Sarris: He makes contact, and in the second half, he didn’t hit fly balls at such an extreme rate. If he gets the GB/FB to a more manageable level, I could see a .270/20+ season from him next year. Deep leaguer.
1:05
Comment From Bo
Fredi G made comments that the Braves need an ace. While I may not agree, who could you see them targeting?
1:06
Eno Sarris: Not too many options. Tanaka really the only free agent ace out there. Available in trade are David Price and Jeff Samardzija, and if Samardzija costs a lot less, I might go that route. Otherwise they have to go for a reclamation project ace like Tim Lincecum or Josh Johnson (gah).
1:07
Comment From larrya
Is there a unifying theme to Winter seasonals?
1:07
Eno Sarris: Usually thicker, sometimes spicier. You’ll see a lot of chocolate and coffee stouts, for example.
1:07
Comment From JT
What are the best websites for intelligent fantasy basketball and or sabermetric NBA analysis?
1:07
Eno Sarris: I like HoopData for stats, and their writing is good if a bit sparse. The True Hoop network on ESPN has a lot of good writers.
1:08
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Holland has benefitted from a surprisingly low HR%
1:08
Eno Sarris: Well there’s his park, and then there’s the small sample, but I’m mostly gigging off his K and BB numbers.
1:08
Comment From Alek
If the Yanks don’t get McCann, who do they target for behind the plate?
1:09
Eno Sarris: There’s Pierzynski… Salty if the Red Sox don’t sign him. Kurt Suzuki I bet will be out there. You know, given their limited offensive upside as a group, that’s not a terrible group.
1:09
Comment From Kimball
The lack of depth, especially in the NLCS, seems surprising — Matheny pretty much had nothing to work with to sustain the rally last night — but is it actually (ie. is there usually a correlation between depth and wins?)? Other than carrying Miller when it seems clear they won’t use him, any obvious mistakes in their roster construction?
1:11
Eno Sarris: I did a lot of work for my piece on NL dept this year, and if I do that work for a few more seasons, maybe I can answer that. I think depth is something that wins you games during the season (think A’s), but is a ‘last piece’ thing and if you don’t expect to be in the postseason every year, you don’t always have the luxury of thinking about depth. Also, depth in the pitching staff is always good, but depth on the bench (the Dodgers have it, the Cards don’t) doesn’t always help much. There’s a pinch-hitter penalty (10% worse off the bench), and you only get 2-3 PA out of them if your starters are healthy.
1:11
Comment From Alek
Do the Royals need SS depth with the down year from Escobar?
1:12
Eno Sarris: Nah, his defense is good enough to just be thankful of whatever offense you get, IMO. I don’t think he’s a problem.
1:12
Comment From Alek
Hughes to Padres?
1:12
Eno Sarris: Makes sense. I guess you could put him in the reclamation project bin for the Braves too. NL team for sure.
1:13
Comment From Tom
Does what Rosenthal has done in the postseason send his ranking up a couple of tiers? 100% job security and he is at least 2nd tier maybe first.
1:13
Eno Sarris: I can’t give him first tier until he’s earned some leash. Which a postseason can do, but he won’t debut in the top tier, just can’t do it with Motte coming back. Love love love his peripherals.
1:13
Comment From ryan
Do advanced fielding metrics give credit (or penalize) to a fielder for his positioning before the play? For instance, if I as a fielder slide over 3 feet to the left and that’s what caused me to not get to a ball that other fielders would have, am I discredited for not making the play or is it neutral since from where I started I could not have made the play?
1:15
Eno Sarris: All credit for the play goes to the player, but positioning isn’t normally accounted for unless a shift is on. So if the player takes a few steps to his left or right and makes or doesn’t make the play based on that movement, then it’s on him. But if the shortstop is in right field and makes a play there, he doesn’t get credit as if he started from shortstop. Does that make sense?
1:15
Comment From bruce
Favorite Tofu meal/sandwich
1:15
Eno Sarris: Only one I really like: crispy fried orange sauce tofu.
1:15
Comment From Guest
Scherzer to the Braves would make some sense…
1:15
Eno Sarris: I don’t see the Tigers trading him unless they win.
1:15
Comment From Guest
Punky Brewster got hot
1:15
Eno Sarris: “got”
1:15
Comment From Guest
But when Leyland does something wrong, it’s a Jose Valverde sized mistake.
1:15
Eno Sarris: whooo baby. Well, he did eventually find Benoit.
1:15
Comment From bruce
I won my Otto league despite having a 67 dollar braun. Just allow me to gloat for a minute
1:15
Comment From person hscer
Tofu? Get outta here!
1:16
Comment From GSon
The puppy (pita.. peet for short).. is doing well.. has become a constant companion.. has chewed up only my wife’s shoes.. good puppy…
1:16
Eno Sarris: Weird lude guys. Weird day.
1:17
Comment From larrya
Can Pinto sneak into the top 15 catchers next season?
1:18
Eno Sarris: Crazy BABIP, bad K rate, inconsistent track record for power. Top 15 maybe, but doubt top 12. I might pencil him in for a .250 BA and 15 homers.
1:18
Comment From Roy Hibbert
if dodgers get lucky and make WS wouuld u start kershaw 3 games?
1:18
Eno Sarris: I’d start him 7 games.
1:18
Comment From juan pierres mustache
mlb.tv’s “companion coverage” of the playoffs is most hilariously useless thing ever. I wish I could hear the negotiations that led to it existing. “Sure, you guys can stream live video, but you can’t include any production value whatsoever.”
1:18
Eno Sarris: Yeah, keep them on the TV, watching the ads.
1:18
Comment From person hscer
Anyone not interested in this is [insert insult]. http://mentalfloss.com/article/53216/mental-floss-exclusive-our-interview-bill-watterson
1:18
Comment From juan pierres mustache
one time i had a sore throat and though maybe a sour would be a good choice in that situation, which was grossly incorrect for multiple values of the word gross
1:18
Comment From Steve 1
Ever go on Reddit? There was a good thread there the other day about the worst beers people have tried. http://www.reddit.com/r/beer/comments/1oknaf/the_worst_beers_youve_ever_tried/
1:18
Comment From GSon
— made a big old pot of Hungarian Vegetable soup… very tasty…
1:19
Eno Sarris: I’m not sure I can use all of this in my sick day, but at least some of it is useful to me.
1:19
Comment From juan pierres mustache
Is it just me, or do the cardinals, the braves, and their respective fanbases appear to be engaged in a race to alienate all other baseball fans? It seems deliberate at this point.
1:19
Eno Sarris: All fanbases have trolls.
1:19
Comment From Roy Hibbert
is ryu going to be same/better/worse next season compared to his season this year?
1:20
Eno Sarris: You know, I was really wrong about him. His arm speed is the same on all of his pitches, his command is good, his change is great, and he can make it work. That said, I’d put the over/under on his ERA next season at 3.50, so that means he’s going to be a bit worse. None of his pitches, other than the change, have better than average whiff rates, so you can’t project a better K%. BB% was great, GB% was good. Hard to make those much better.
1:20
Comment From Roy Munson
Thoughts on all the good pitchers that came into the league last year and had little to no trouble adjusting to mlb hitters? Seems when drafting prospects the safer route used to be taking advanced hitters but now I’m not do sure. Coincidence, or some sort of improvement in the way teams are developing pitchers?
1:22
Eno Sarris: The league is for sure for sure going younger at starting pitching, and that’s led to a higher league velocity and probably has something to do with the better K%s from pitchers. If you have stuff, you can get by with stuff for a couple of years before your velocity starts to go a bit, and by then you can learn to pitch. Buying an ‘advanced hitter’ is buying too much into an environment — do you trust that the advanced hitter saw advanced pitching, and how did he do in those situations, and is your sample too small by the time you get to that point in your analysis?
1:22
Comment From ryan
Are you more likely to watch Mob City or Ground Floor?
1:23
Eno Sarris: Mob City, but I like funny movies.
1:23
Comment From person hscer
How many things were wrong with this ESPN Stats & Info tweet from yesterday: “Torii Hunter has not batted leadoff for his team since September 24, 2000. In 25 career games from the leadoff spot, he is hitting .164.”
1:23
Comment From Roy Munson
Am I crazy to think Gerrit Cole will be a top 5 pitcher next year, not taking innings into consideration?
1:24
Eno Sarris: I don’t think he’ll have too much of a limit either, he pitched 180+ innings this year. I love him next year. I’d give him a 8+ K/9 with the increased use of his offspeed stuff. I don’t see the need for his walk rate to regress a ton. A similar line to this year, with more Ks, makes him a top 20 pitcher easy. Top 10 maybe. It’ll take a bit of luck to get into the top 5, but it usually does anyway.
1:24
Comment From Roy Hibbert
Is there a way for the dodgers to trade for price w/o giving up seager?
1:25
Eno Sarris: I don’t think they’ll be first in line for Price.
1:25
Comment From juan pierres mustache
Hey, on Fox they just replace the ads for “Ground Floor” with ads for a series that was racist and unfunny enough to get a 0% on Rotten Tomatoes! To summarize, this year is about equal with the year that every commercial break was announced by WRITTEN IN THE STARS A MILLION MILES AWAY
1:25
Comment From Schmiggy
Hey what about that Aunt Betty’s Ginger Brown Cinnamon Pomegranite Nut Wheat Sassafrass Vinegar Hash Tuttifrutti October Humdinger Ale?
1:25
Comment From Schmiggy
Price to the Braves.
1:25
Comment From Ted
What do you think about streaming pitchers in fantasy baseball, strategic or cheap?
1:25
Eno Sarris: Anything in the rules is strategy. That’s what I think!
1:26
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
If the Braves let Huddy go, he probably retires. I would be surprised if they parted with his veteran leadership.
1:26
Eno Sarris: Then maybe they trade for an ace. Because if you put Huddy back in that rotation, you’ve got a bit of a ‘surplus’ if that exists with pitching.
1:26
Comment From Marcus A.
Donaldson more real than not? At least solidy startable next year, right?
1:27
Eno Sarris: More real than not. Top 12 3B for sure. I can believe in a .280/.360 avg/obp, and I think 25 HR is doable again. He’s just doing what he did in his better years in the minors.
1:27
Comment From Krog
Took a brewery tour of Sierra Nevada and the wort aroma was the best thing I’ve ever smelled. Good god I love beer.
1:27
Comment From person hscer
Is “Profat” Prince Fielder’s new nickname?
1:27
Comment From Alex
Jim Leyland Batted Ramon Santiago (53 wRC+, .283 OBP) and Ryan Raburn (27 wRC+, .226 OBP) in the 2 spot last year consistently because they are “fast.”
1:28
Eno Sarris: Okay we’re hitting a bit of a stride here.
1:28
Comment From Frank
Isn’t Price kinda overrated? Doesn’t really get a ton of whiffs….
1:28
Eno Sarris: It is strange. It’s like he’s traded whiffs for ground balls but his GB rate is only average. Great command, but velocity is starting to go. I dunno, he’d look pretty awesome in the NL.
1:28
Comment From JT
Have I asked yet this month for you to whisper some sweet nothings for Rizzo’s dynasty owners? Owning him is like dating the bad boy; all potential goodness.
1:29
Eno Sarris: Hey man his peripherals all stayed the same or got better! He’ll be my low-cost 1B next year in a lot of leagues. 18% K rate? .200 ISO? Yes please.
1:29
Comment From lebRON Gardenhire
Is alex cobb better than matt moore cause of his command. I mean look at the walk rates?
1:30
Eno Sarris: Moore has the velocity, but he’s losing it. He’s complained of elbow soreness. If I want one next year, it’s Cobb. Even though his FB is 90, 91.
1:30
Comment From Mikeron
Any idea what Oakland does with their OF this offseason? Seems like someone needs to go.
1:30
Eno Sarris: I doubt they pick up Young’s option. Maybe they pick up Choice next year, and work him in. If Reddick is as bad as he was, then Choice will take more of his at-bats. Choice’s D is pretty good.
1:30
Comment From Moses
I know he’s in decline, but Teixeira is a keeper at $7 in 4×4 right?
1:30
Eno Sarris: Yes.
1:31
Comment From person hscer
I have 15 followers, so this didn’t work as a trivia question on Twitter, but let’s see how chatters do: Name the 3 players with PA>=3000, OBP>=.400, and ISO
1:31
Eno Sarris: Wait ISO over what?
1:31
Comment From Gila Monster
Looking at the Contract Crowsourcing, What do you think of Lincecum? He has a massive home run problem in SF and it isn’t like that would get better anywhere.,
1:32
Eno Sarris: 1/14. QO from SF to rebound.
1:32
Comment From person hscer
why’d that cut off? ISO under 200
1:32
Eno Sarris: ooh. Under 200! interesting!
1:32
Comment From Todd
% chance Brad Ziegler closes for AZ next year?
1:32
Eno Sarris: He worked on his changeup, and I have an interview I’ll publish this offseason that was interesting, but I still am nervous about him vs a lefty, and his K% isn’t really closer like. I’ll call it 40%.
1:33
Comment From Todd
Carl Crawford is having a massive playoffs. Top 30 of next year?
1:34
Eno Sarris: Crawford still not stealing bases (stupid applet), and you don’t really own him for power. Could he go .275/15/20 next year? Sure. That’s probably right on the cusp of top 30 in the OF.
1:34
Eno Sarris: Wait, what happened to my Ziegler answer?
1:34
Comment From person hscer
Ziegler A still showing here, “He worked on his changeup, and I have an interview I’ll publish this offseason that was interesting, but I still am nervous about him vs a lefty, and his K% isn’t really closer like. I’ll call it 40%.”
1:34
Eno Sarris: Ok, well, then that’s fine.
1:34
Comment From ryan
Trivia Question: Ichiro
1:35
Comment From Guest
Mauer
1:35
Comment From JEB
1. Ichiro 2. Jeter 3. Rollins
1:35
Comment From Schmiggy
Votto?
1:35
Eno Sarris: I don’t think Ichiro has the OBP. I think it’s … oh there’s the answer.
1:35
Comment From person hscer
Mauer is right; he’s the only active player
1:36
Comment From person hscer
so still 2 retired players to get
1:36
Comment From Guest
Raines
1:36
Comment From Moses
Rickey Henderson
1:36
Comment From person hscer
Henderson is #2. Raines career .385 OBP
1:36
Comment From Alek
Whose going to lead the league in OBP in 14?
1:37
Eno Sarris: Votto. Easy.
1:37
Comment From juan pierres mustache
juan pierre if you squint at his OBP and make it real blurry like
1:37
Comment From Andrew
How were the beergraphs region’s decided upon seem somewhat arbitrary? And as a resident of the middle Atlantic I initially found the term industrial derogatory but I go over it, great tool.
1:38
Eno Sarris: Every regional breakdown has flaws. We found a semi-standard one to start things off, and are open for discussion on the topic. It’s not perfect, and regional availability is the toughest thing for us to do anyway.
1:38
Comment From Sad Hawpe
Who are some of your favorite non-fg family baseball scribes? Any good rays or marlins writers. Just moved florida from nebraksa. Go CORNHUSKERS!
1:39
Eno Sarris: Jason Collette, R.J. Anderson, Tommy Rancel for Rays. I like Jong for the Marlins (on SBN).
1:39
Comment From Guest
ty cobb
1:39
Comment From Schmiggy
Morgan
1:39
Comment From Guest
What sort of time frame on this question? Cobb I’m sure did it, but I feel like there’d be more old guys that did it too.
1:39
Comment From person hscer
Cobb was in the HOF for 25 years by 1961. Morgan career .392 OBP
1:39
Comment From Alek
Will the Braves seek a 2Bman this year. Trade Uggla?
1:40
Eno Sarris: If you’re talking about signing a 2B to trade Uggla, you’re talking about Brian Roberts, Nick Punto, Kelly Johnson or Robinson Cano. I actually think Uggla will be back at second next year.
1:40
Comment From person hscer
expansion era (61-pres)
1:42
Comment From Ted
Tommy la Stella starting at 2B in Atlanta next year.
1:43
Eno Sarris: He was a bit old for his level last year, so I’m not sure he’s as great of a prospect as his numbers make him. But he could be the utility infielder if he has a good spring, and he could push Uggla off second by the end of the year.
1:43
Comment From Tom
Who would you choose for you All-Defense team?
1:43
Eno Sarris: Beltre, Simmons, hmmm…
1:44
Eno Sarris: Was going to say Zobrist, but Pedroia is great.
1:44
Eno Sarris: I’ll take Belt actually.
1:45
Eno Sarris: cf: gomez. and I’ll fill the rest of the OF with Trout and Ellsbury.
1:45
Comment From Spencer
Gattis! (In LF of course!!)
1:45
Eno Sarris: Oh boy.
1:45
Comment From Guest
trivia answer, 3rd guy not Gwynn?
1:45
Comment From JEB
WADE BOGGS!
1:45
Comment From Dustin
Gwynn or Boggs
1:45
Comment From Bkgeneral
Rod Carew
1:45
Comment From person hscer
Yep, Boggs
1:45
Eno Sarris: Ding ding ding.
1:45
Comment From person hscer
Answers: Mauer .405 OBP, .145 ISO; Henderson .401 OBP, .140 ISO; Boggs .415 OBP, .115 ISO
1:46
Comment From Arnie
Do you think that Taijuan Walker breaks camp with the Mariners next season or do they keep him in the minors for a few months.
1:46
Eno Sarris: If their GM is still there, I think Walker and Paxton are in, Saunders is out.
1:46
Comment From MarinerDan
Is Mike Zunino a serviceable fantasy catcher next year?
1:46
Eno Sarris: More likely in OBP leagues.
1:47
Comment From person hscer
Trevor Bauer and the Orioles coaching staff are confused about the concept of “developing pitchers.”
1:47
Comment From jono
i want to hire hscer for my marketing department. guy (assuming gender) has gotten word out about his article in community blog better, and cheaper, than anyone else who shows up in these spheres…
1:47
Comment From Enos High School Principal
And why can’t you be more like Mr. Cistulli?
1:48
Eno Sarris: Hey now we’re getting a little testy in our interludes.
1:48
Comment From Alek
Where is Curtis Granderson going?
1:48
Eno Sarris: The other New York team? I have a feeling this Choo love is going to price them out of their prized acquisition, and they’ll take Grandy for cheaper (!) which might make sense because of injury, but Grandy probably has a little more upside.
1:49
Comment From Val Lowe
What’s more important for a pitcher’s fastball: Big dick velocity or movement & control?
1:49
Eno Sarris: Well I don’t know what his pelvis velocity has to do with it, but we have a great piece on this in the community blog. Looks like velocity isn’t super important… until you get to around 94 mph. Anything over that is a big deal.
1:49
Comment From Steve 1
Roy Halladay. :-(
1:50
Eno Sarris: Reclamation ace? I don’t think so. I did a piece showing that people his age, just going on DL for shoulder issues meant that you’d be lucky to have 50+ more IP in the rest of your career. And he had surgery.
1:50
Comment From MarinerDan
Anyone play fantasy baseball with minor league players?
1:51
Eno Sarris: I think half of my 12 leagues have minor league players. You might like ottoneu.
1:51
Comment From Guest
Jonathan Schoop to Atlanta for a pitcher?
1:51
Eno Sarris: They might need him to play second in Baltimore. And I don’t think he’d bring back a top-end starter or anything.
1:51
Comment From Schmiggy
yeah jono, but there are 6 people here
1:51
Comment From person hscer
How serious was that comment, jono?
1:51
Comment From JEB
Nick Johnson just missed the cut btw. 3300PA 173 ISO 399 OBP soooooo close
1:52
Comment From Spencer
Billy “quick feet” Hamilton worth starting? What about in a second utility? H2H points league
1:52
Eno Sarris: I think he’ll be their CF next year, but he’ll go super early in drafts. People will dream on his SB totals.
1:52
Comment From MarinerDan
I mean with exclusively minor league players and counting only minor league stats!
1:53
Eno Sarris: Oh! That’s different! what a huge player pool! seems daunting.
1:53
Comment From Preston
Factoring in the money, how would you rank FA OFers Cruz, Granderson, Beltran and Choo?
1:54
Eno Sarris: Choo, Beltran, Grandy, Cruz, but if Choo’s money gets anywhere near his agent’s posturing, push him down past Grandy. I like Choo, but I’ve seen some degrading in his peripherals going into this year, and one great year in a hitting ballpark doesn’t dissuade me of that.
1:54
Comment From Kimball
Rank in order of most to least likely, who will take a largely DH role in 2014: Cabrera, Fielder, Jeter, Davis, Moss.
1:54
Eno Sarris: Move Jeter behind Davis and you got it.
1:54
Eno Sarris: (I don’t think the A’s will ever have a primary DH).
1:55
Comment From Spencer
Where is Halladay going?
1:55
Eno Sarris: LA?
1:55
Comment From Razor
What’s the highest-leverage aspect to be good at in fantasy: draft, in season waiver wire, keeper strategy, or offseason research?
1:56
Eno Sarris: Great question. I think offseason research / draft / keeper strategy is kind of one area. But the draft is where it all goes down, the draft is what I focus on, so I’ll answer draft. then research.
1:56
Comment From Andrew
What happens with Detroit’s rotation, do you see anyone being traded in the off-season?
1:56
Eno Sarris: I think too much depends on if they win the world series or not. If they don’t, I’d expect anyone under contract to be back.
1:57
Comment From Damon
Have you seen Tanaka? Is he really a potential “ace” if he comes to the states?
1:57
Eno Sarris: Video only. Looks like a legit splitter and good control. Not as good as Yu though.
1:57
Comment From Gabe
If Choo is too expensive and Alderson doesn’t want to part with too many pitching prospects, how do the Mets plan to get a potent offense by opening day 2014?
1:57
Eno Sarris: Abreu and a middle-tier OF?
1:58
Comment From Miketron
So our company had Kool and the Gang play at our annual employee meeting. Lamer for our company or the band?
1:58
Eno Sarris: Band. Company scored decently.
1:58
Comment From ryan
What is the highest leverage value and the situation in which it occurs?
1:59
Eno Sarris: Dunno! Tie runner in scoring position, bottom of the ninth? That way you’re losing but you can swing it to winning?
1:59
Comment From Razor
Problem with doing a minor-league fantasy game is that if you do really well, you’ll lose all your players. Or is that part of the game OH GOD I WANT TO PLAY
1:59
Comment From MarinerDan
Puig boom or bust in 2014?
1:59
Eno Sarris: I like him for a .270ish BA at worst. 25+ homers, 15+ stolen bases. I see these as baselines, because he’s shown these skills.
1:59
Comment From Preston
What can you draw from SSS in the AZFL? Would a productive season there be enough to make you think Tyler Austin’s unproductive AA season was because of the wrist injury.
2:00
Eno Sarris: Can’t go overboard. Mostly what I take from the AFL is that the team still thinks highly of the player to send them there.
2:00
Comment From Gila Monster
Should the Mets take advantage of the Yankees sucking and try to steal market share by getting really really good?
2:00
Eno Sarris: Uh, the Mets should probably just try to be good every year lol.
2:01
Comment From person hscer
4 players all time 400 obp and under 100 iso – should I just say, or should people try to guess?
2:01
Eno Sarris: Tell us
2:01
Comment From Miketron
Puig or Cespedes next year?
2:01
Eno Sarris: Very close but Puig is younger, so I think he’ll steal more. And Puig hasn’t yet K’ed that much (but really could)
2:01
Comment From person hscer
Max Bishop, Eddie Stanky, Roy Thomas, and Eddie Collins
2:01
Eno Sarris: EDDIE STANKY
2:01
Comment From Michael
Dan Szymborski recently said Trout’s peak may be 11-12 WAR. Thoughts?
2:01
Eno Sarris: I don’t see why not.
2:02
Comment From person hscer
Most recent player on that list, and he retired 60 years ago.
2:02
Eno Sarris: People just don’t value the no-pop patience guy.
2:02
Comment From Guest
who do you see as “sleeper” bounceback candidates among pitchers next year? maybe Jason Hammel?
2:04
Eno Sarris: Nah, he’s back to who he was. Lemme see. Jeff Samardzija. Justin Verlander. Matt Cain. Ian Kennedy to a lesser extent.
2:04
Comment From person hscer
Either that or it’s just impossible to get on base that often without being a power threat nowadays. You’d basically have to be an Ichiro who walks more.
2:04
Comment From MarinerDan
Rank these pitchers for 2014: Ryu, Shelby Miller, Fister, Liriano, and Medlen.
2:05
Eno Sarris: Miller, Liriano, Ryu, Medlen, Fister.
2:05
Comment From GSon
come back player of the year in the AL.. Mariano Rivera or Scott Kazmir?
2:05
Eno Sarris: Didn’t even think about this. You know MO will win it.
2:05
Comment From SK
Safer bet: Josh Johnson or Roy Halladay?
2:05
Eno Sarris: Johnson, amazingly!
2:05
Comment From Bryan
Who do you have winning the World Series?
2:05
Eno Sarris: Red Sox?
2:06
Comment From ryan
Regarding leverage index, if I am reading the table right (http://www.insidethebook.com/li.shtml) you can have a 10.9 if bases loaded, two outs, and down by 1.
2:06
Eno Sarris: Yeah you have to be down in order to get the big swing.
2:06
Comment From Spencer
How long does it take pitching staffs to ‘adjust’ to recent call ups?
2:07
Eno Sarris: What do you mean? For the team to find their roles?
2:07
Comment From Drew
I am worried about Matt Moore. I have him for 23$ in a pts ottoneu league. Should I consider shipping him out for a Paxton like player?
2:07
Eno Sarris: I’d shop him yes. The walks are an issue in points leagues.
2:07
Comment From Preston
What do you expect to see from Michael Pineda next season?
2:07
Eno Sarris: I really don’t know. If the velocity is really back, he still doesn’t have a changeup. Maybe a high-threes ERA and decent whip, decent K%? Low fours?
2:08
Comment From En OSarris
Over/under on Homer Bailey’s K/BB next year?
2:09
Eno Sarris: Tough one without looking! So I have to look. And that takes a second. It was basically 4/1 after being 3+/1 to one for most of his career. I’ll take a step back in K% (will the velocity hold? will the split finger be the difference?) but I still like him.
2:10
Comment From Gila Monster
I like Medlen. 6th in SwgStk%,15th in F-Strike%,14th in Contact. He could get better.
2:10
Eno Sarris: Kinda two-pitch pitcher, but at least that second pitch is a changeup.
2:10
Comment From SK
Who do you think would be best Free Agent catcher signing (based on expected performance but also expected contract)? Ruiz?
2:11
Eno Sarris: He looks pretty good. Salty’s BABIP could crater and make him overpriced. AJP might be super cheap and I don’t hate him as mcuh as the league does.
2:11
Comment From LarryA
When is that fantasy conference in Arizona? Are there really enough people willing to pay 500$ to listen to Fantasy advice
2:11
Eno Sarris: Packed every year! Nov 1-3.
2:11
Comment From Guest
what should I expect from Kevin Gausman next year?
2:12
Eno Sarris: Oh man I’ll be owning him. I drool about his stuff. I can’t imagine that high nineties with a split finger like his won’t eventually work.
2:13
Comment From Wink
Among 2B/3B prospects with high expectations, who do you think may still reach all start status: Rendon, Ackley, Gyorko, Kipnis, Lawrie?
2:13
Eno Sarris: Kipnis! He’s practically there already! I see no problems with him. Among the others, I kinda like Lawrie more than others.
2:13
Comment From En OSarris
No one is asking you about beer today.
2:13
Eno Sarris: We had some questions. I’m not gung ho on it because I have bronchitis and can’t touch my beer for five days.
2:14
Comment From SK
Better beer: Pliny the Younger or Pliny the Elder? or Pliny the Middle Aged?
2:14
Eno Sarris: Younger by far. But, being middle aged, I’d be interested in what that beer has to say.
2:14
Comment From LarryA
Out of the cubs 4 top prospects: Baez, Almora, Bryant and Soler- logic states that 2 of them will either fail or undewhelm, right?
2:14
Eno Sarris: Yeah, even top ten prospects have a near 50% bust rate.
2:14
Comment From JEB
Beergraphs chat Friday’s duh!
2:14
Eno Sarris: Oh yeah, don’t forget that.
2:14
Comment From Kennel District
What do you expect from Hosmer next year?
2:15
Eno Sarris: .275/25/10. Pretty much what I figured him for this year, plus 5 homers in case the changes he made were real.
2:15
Comment From Wink
I love beer. So, I’ve got a Stone Imperial Porter (the Suede collabo), the Enjoy By, Hangar 24 Polycot, and Port Brewing Anniversary. Rank?
2:15
Eno Sarris: I’ve got that damn Suede mocking me in my fridge. Haven’t had it. Enjoy By TROUNCEs. Port second.
2:15
Comment From Kennel District
Jose Fernandez or Gerrit Cole in a dynasty?
2:16
Eno Sarris: You know what? I’ll take Cole. More wins in the short term. Also, I believe in his changeup. Fernandez’ change is okay, but the slurve he throws should have bigger platoon splits than Cole’s.
2:16
Comment From Pliny the Middle Aged
Where did I put my metamucil?
2:16
Eno Sarris: And why does my ankle still hurt.
2:16
Comment From person hscer
“Will instant replay kill the neighborhood play?” a Deadspin writer asks.
2:17
Eno Sarris: If it does, there will be tradeoffs when it comes to how people can slide into second, so it’ll all be good.
2:17
Comment From En OSarris
I don’t drink…why does bronchitis preclude the consumption of brews?
2:17
Eno Sarris: Antibiotics.
2:17
Comment From Sorceror
Chances that Matt Adams is a full-time 1b somewhere next season?
2:17
Eno Sarris: In St. Louis. Very high.
2:17
Comment From My name is also spencer
With 96 mph av fb, does Eovaldi ever start to rack up the ks you might expect?
2:18
Eno Sarris: The velocity was down but now it’s up, so that’s part of the picture. The other is that he doesn’t have a platoon-split-busting pitch. So he can’t really strike out lefties well. But he could Pineda, I guess, if he works on his command.
2:18
Comment From Jake
Where does Craig go if Adams starts next year? Beltran’s OF spot?
2:18
Eno Sarris: Yes.
2:18
Comment From LarryA
Will the twins sign any decent bats this off-season?
2:19
Eno Sarris: Are there any on the market? I doubt they go after an OF. Does Abreu seem like their sort of deal? I don’t see it.
2:19
Comment From Bruce
Do 3rd base caoches get WS rings?
2:19
Eno Sarris: Yes
2:19
Comment From MarinerDan
Does Oscar Tavares start everyday from Opening Day next year?
2:19
Eno Sarris: No
2:19
Comment From Sorceror
So then what does STL do with Taveres?
2:19
Eno Sarris: Start him in the minors and then bring him up when someone gets injured.
2:20
Comment From Bruce
Will there be any Rotographs articles dealing with Otto allocation strategies this year? I seem to remember some last year
2:20
Eno Sarris: Will get Chad on it!
2:20
Comment From En OSarris
I’m tired of hearing the Montero trade regarded as a failure…the Yankees have gotten 0 innings in exchange for a catcher who they probably wouldn’t have been able to start, and is now suspended.
2:20
Eno Sarris: Oh it was a failure allright. For everyone involved.
2:20
Comment From Teller
Myers or Puig?
2:21
Eno Sarris: Great question. I’ll have to look at Myers’ BABIP closer. I don’t think he’ll run as much as Puig. I might take Puig! I bet market takes Myers.
2:21
Comment From juan pierres mustache
The Montero trade is equivalent to those shootouts at the end of action movies where everyone ends up dead
2:21
Comment From Bruce
Career over/under 100 inings left for Johan?
2:21
Eno Sarris: under
2:21
Comment From Wink
What is it about Stanford that messes with hitters so badly?
2:22
Eno Sarris: I don’t think it does, necessarily, especially since the best hitters don’t take on the Stanford Swing. But if it does, it’s because they focus on contact and getting the foot down, so they *might* kill rhythm and dampen power.
2:22
Comment From Iceborg
Leonys Martin – cannon arm and steals some bases. But more valuable in real life than fantasy?
2:22
Eno Sarris: He’s athletic but I’m not sure he’ll turn all that athleticism into stats. .280/15/30? Sure. But much more? Dunno.
2:22
Comment From My name is also spencer
Johan or Halladay?
2:23
Eno Sarris: Johan has a couple years on Doc if I remember right, but also a second surgery. Hmm. Johan?
2:23
Comment From LarryA
I just had the BEST idea! a FG/BG meetup in Cooperstown! who hangs up first? NO ONE! Ill start researching Allegash, you book your flight
2:23
Eno Sarris: Oh Appelman!
2:23
Comment From Guest
How do the Orioles solve their DH problem next year? Platoon Valencia with someone else again? Go after Beltran? Abreu is another option but I’m not sure they’d win that bidding war.
2:24
Eno Sarris: Beltran would make a ton of sense for them if they have the money. I sorta see top-end starting rotation as their need, but maybe Gausman can help. Not like the market is great, unless they go after Tanaka.
2:24
Comment From En OSarris
5×5 who do you like more…Billy Hamilton/Lorenzo Cain/Brett Gardner?
2:24
Eno Sarris: Without price included? Hamilton. With price included? Gardner.
2:24
Comment From JT
“People just don’t value the no-pop patience guy.” Pity Rich becker
2:24
Comment From person hscer
Who hangs up first: the one who placed the call or the one who answered it?
2:24
Comment From Schmiggy
ok enuf of this.
2:24
Eno Sarris: That’s my kind of innerlude.
2:25
Comment From Kennel District
Which potential suitor would be the best fit for Stanton?
2:25
Eno Sarris: The one with tons of minor league talent, especially on the infield. (Texas)
2:25
Comment From Shark Mapiro
If the Indians decide to keep spending money, do you think they would take a risk and sign Abreu, and keep Swish in RF then split DH/1B for Abreu and Santana?
2:25
Eno Sarris: Tanaka would be a great risk for them IMO.
2:25
Comment From En OSarris
Stanton will have more suitors than Penelope of Ithaca.
2:25
Comment From JT
So is Wilhemsen just gone like Gagnum Style and parachute pants now?
2:25
Comment From person hscer
innerlude?
2:26
Eno Sarris: innertube innerlude
2:26
Comment From Wink
We should have a crowd-sourcing for Tanaka. I believe Yu and Iwakuma have made people somewhat forget Matsuzaka and we’re heading for a pretty big overpay. Thoughts?
2:26
Eno Sarris: Could really happen. Wild card, and maybe why we haven’t done it yet: the rules for posting could change this offseason.
2:26
Comment From LarryA
Jayson Werth a sell high?
2:27
Eno Sarris: Sure. He’s older than you might think, and more of a batting average risk then he showed last year.
2:27
Comment From Brian
New prognosis for Manny Machado?
2:27
Eno Sarris: Seems less likely to head to short now. And fewer steals is iffy. But if he irons out the infield flies, could still be great.
2:27
Comment From Miketron
Thanks for the long chat eno. You have totally killed my afternoon productivity…
2:28
Eno Sarris: Have a manager meeting coming up so I might have to go soon, so your bosses just sent me a thank you.
2:28
Comment From Bruce
Chris Perez get another year of closing in Clev?
2:28
Eno Sarris: He won’t make it through the year. Cody Allen?
2:28
Comment From person hscer
If you look at 2012 and 13, Werth had a .311 average over 762 AB/876 PA. But yeah, 2013 was probably the best season of the rest of his career. And the Nats wasted it.
2:28
Eno Sarris: Looking mostly at his hitting profile and K%.
2:28
Comment From Iceborg
Was Corbin a flash in the pan last year for the first 2/3 of the season, or did he just get tired and can we expect good things next season?
2:29
Eno Sarris: He doesn’t have a good changeup and he needs one. I hope he works on it. Even with his current arsenal, though, I’ll set the over under on 3.7ish and put him right around Ryu (but after).
2:29
Comment From MarinerDan
Strasburg or Verlander?
2:29
Eno Sarris: Verlander has proven he can do the innings, Stras hasn’t.
2:30
Comment From Bruce
Do you think once the Redskins change their name (inevitable), all the pressure and outrage will fall on the Indians? To go back to the Spiders would be kinda fun.
2:30
Eno Sarris: Oh man I like Spiders. Spiders from Mars headlines write themselves!
2:30
Comment From person hscer
I’m still waiting for an explanation on how the Redskins are getting all the scrutiny when Chief Wahoo exists.
2:30
Comment From Guest
What about the Braves? Say bye to the chop?!
2:30
Comment From My name is also spencer
Mike Trout is projected by many to become much more of a power hitter while losing speed and defence, and by implication an even better hitter, is he following the accelerated Barry Bonds career path?
2:30
Eno Sarris: Oh man this is *not* a crazy thing to say.
2:31
Comment From Jon
Cashner, Tillman, Medlen, Bailey or Masterson in 2014 and going forward?
2:31
Eno Sarris: Bailey over Cash because of health, Medlen in the trio ……………… Tillman, Masterson.
2:32
Comment From person hscer
You’re right, it’s not crazy. Now I’m scared.
2:32
Comment From MarinerDan
E5 a first rounder?
2:32
Eno Sarris: The back end of the first round gets a little iffy, I could see him sneaking in. I might take him over a pitcher there.
2:32
Comment From Shark Mapiro
Chris Perez will get non-tendered, no way Cleveland pays him $9mil, or whatever he would get in arbitration.
2:32
Eno Sarris: That seems like a reasonable thing to say.
2:33
Comment From Wink
Would you sooner bet on the Mariner playoff chances than say the Cubs?
2:33
Eno Sarris: Actually I think the Cubs could be closer. Especially if they add another starting pitcher. There are things to like about what they are doing, already.
2:34
Comment From MarinerDan
Eric Young Jr. goes for 50+ in 2014?
2:34
Eno Sarris: I think he’s better cast as a fourth OF, so maybe no.
2:35
Eno Sarris: Wow, breaking beer news. Duvel bought Boulevard, one of my favorite breweries.
2:35
Comment From Guest
of all the playoff teams this year, which has the worst chance to get back next year? someone in the NL Central, right? can’t imagine the Pirates get a repeat of those performances.
2:35
Eno Sarris: Eh, they are building something nice and have Taillon in the wings. Least likely to return… interesting. Cleveland?
2:35
Comment From MarinerDan
True or false: Stanton would be a top 5 pick if traded to Colorado.
2:36
Eno Sarris: Or Texas. Still doesn’t steal. But middle of the first round possible in either scenario.
2:36
Comment From Raul Ibanez
What, sir, are you implying about the moves the Mariners have made recently?
2:36
Eno Sarris: ALL OF THE NO D SLUGGERS
2:37
Comment From En OSarris
Mashers like Just In Smoke and Mike Morse
2:37
Comment From Frank
Who are some of your favorite underrated free agents? Jose Molina maybe, if the framing numbres are right?
2:38
Eno Sarris: McLouth? Grandy, depending on the numbers. Beltran, but if the Cards advance he’ll have an aura. Hughes for an NL team. Kazmir? Scott Baker? It’s a terrible group.
2:38
Comment From Razor
You going into drafts this year treating Jose Abreu as if he’ll be a top-5 1B?
2:38
Eno Sarris: No. I’m more risk averse.
2:38
Eno Sarris: oh man! guys! I’m coughing up a lung, anyone want it?
2:39
Eno Sarris: I gotta go! Thanks for coming. We’ll do some more chats, really happy y’all came.
2:39
Comment From person hscer
thanks Eno!
2:39
Eno Sarris: Till next time.
2:39
Comment From Enos High School Principal
EVERYONE BACK TO CLASS
2:39
Comment From Miketron
Get well soon eno

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