Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 11/14/13

11:42
Eno Sarris: Here at noon! or nine am, if you live on the right coast.
12:00
Eno Sarris: Lyrics of the day from a band that sounds like an updated Beatles in a good way.

This time I’m just gonna take or I’m never gonna shake it,
I’ll just close my eyes and make so that all these little things don’t affect me now

12:00
Comment From Henry
Left coast, Eno. Left coast.
12:00
Eno Sarris: Right as in correct.
12:00
Comment From Sadwick
Guess I’m on the wrong coast…..
12:01
Eno Sarris: you and something like 85% of the population.

12:01
Comment From Henry
Jason Heyward in 2014! I have a good feeling. Do You?
12:01
Eno Sarris: Yes. I think the biggest thing for him was maintaining a more power friendly batted ball mix… and health. He was one for two last year.
12:01
Comment From zack
Better next season: Delmon or Francoueur?
12:02
Eno Sarris: Delmon. Wouldn’t be surprised if we’ve seen the last of Frenchy.
12:02
Comment From Johnny
Do you think Jeff Samardzija would be a good fit in Toronto? Decent ground ball rate and does not give up a tonne of home runs. Can it get done without Sanchez or Stroman?
12:02
Eno Sarris: Well he does give up a lot of homers. I think spotty fastball command and the splitter is occasionally not there, plus wind out at Wrigley. Homers and command are the only thing that separate him from acedom in my estimation. I think i’ll take some pain to get him though.
12:02
Comment From TR
Do you think Mookie Betts is the real deal? If so, I see no way he fits into the Sox’ future plans. Would it be wise to sell high right now and use him as a piece to bring in a plus guy at 1B or in the OF?
12:04
Eno Sarris: 1) Yes I think he’s the real deal. More walks than strikeouts, good power, and ability to play the MI, that puts him in the best buckets in terms of bust rates. 2) I heard that SS (high school) and CF are possibilities, so the Red Sox could make room. 3) I think the Red Sox are going to make a big trade this offseason. Betts is absolutely a possible trade piece.
12:04
Comment From person hscer
If you ignore RA/9 is the Wainwright vote THAT ridiculous? Of course, the guy who made the vote probably used Wainwright’s wins as his deciding factor.
12:04
Eno Sarris: No vote for Waino is that ridiculous. Beast.
12:05
Comment From Chet
Cru Jones won Hell Track..but he was on PEDs. anyhow – lets talk Nats – discussions of them trading Rendon, Golito and Cole for Scherzer or Price are way off, no? Rendon should be enough to get either. Correct? And the Nats shouldn’t do it.
12:05
Eno Sarris: Nah I think those are silly. Their front three pitchers are great. In fact, their premium talent at most positions is great. They just need depth.
12:05
Comment From Pale Hose
In a Diamond Mind dynasty league rookie draft I’m having an impossible time choosing between Myers, Puig, Cole, Wacha, and Wheeler. Advice?
12:06
Eno Sarris: I know that dynasties that mimic real life (Strat, Scoresheet, DM) value pitching, but I’d be looking at the outfielders. Obviously Myers, even with those Ks, has a better plate approach in his rear view mirror. They both were great, they both showed weaknesses.
12:07
Comment From odbsol
Two trades on table, Keep 10 + minor league roster. Weak at MI and SP. 1. Trade J. Upton + T. Walker for Pedroia + Marisnick. 2. Trade Taveras for S. Castro + Wacha. What say you?
12:08
Eno Sarris: Number one is tempting, if you need a 2B, just because of positions, but Pedroia is older, and though I think he’ll get his power back with a healthy thumb, it’s not no-doubt power. Number two… nah. I mean Castro should bounce back and Wacha is tempting, but if Taveras hits his ceiling, he’s more valuable than either. And he’s close.
12:08
Comment From zack
Rank for next season: Wheeler, Wacha, Salazar, Cole?
12:09
Eno Sarris: Cole, Salazar, Wacha, Wheeler. Salazar/Wacha was the hardest, but I like Salazar’s slider more than Wacha’s curve.
12:09
Comment From Jack
I think the new NPL posting fees are going to backfire in the MLB face. The avg price between the top two teams sounds good..but doesn’t it make it that the top teams with interest will bid more thinking that will be lesser than what they bid. But group mentality will cause a team that would have bid 40 to bid 50 and the winning team instead of bidding 50 will bid 60…and so the winning team will have to pay 55 mil for example.
12:10
Eno Sarris: yeah, unclear those average bids will be any different.. unless there has been a trend that one team blows the rest out of the water. Then the 55 bids 60, but second place still only bids 25 instead of 20, and the average is still 40, which is much less than 55.
12:10
Comment From Marty
Eno, have you seen the space jam 30 for 30? it’s pretty fantasatic.
12:11
Eno Sarris: Those are great. I’ll make sure to watch that.
12:11
Comment From juan pierres mustache
Matt Harrison is ALREADY in the best shape of his life, pacing the offseason pack. He has 5 months, plenty of time to get fat again and then return to the best shape of his life a second time before spring training even starts
12:11
Comment From person hscer
I’m on the privilege coast
12:11
Comment From RotoLando
Hey Eno,
12:11
Eno Sarris: up and down
12:11
Comment From Guest
Ike Davis ends up where?
12:11
Eno Sarris: Tampa, Pittsburgh or Houston.
12:12
Comment From zack
Who do you trust more to sustain their performance next season: Liriano or Ubaldo?
12:12
Eno Sarris: Liriano because he’ll be in the NL. If Ubaldo moves to the NL, him.
12:12
Comment From Marty
Do you think the Mets will sign any of the big FAs?
12:13
Eno Sarris: One FA that would cost a pick, but not the most expensive or second-most expensive one. Which means, dunno about Choo. If he’s at the crowdsourced 80mill, then yeah they could do that. I’ve heard 100-110 though and wowza.
12:13
Comment From Colin
Do it. Tell me the Cubs are going to get one of the Taillon/Giolito/Archie Bradleys of the world for Jeff Samardzija.
12:13
Eno Sarris: Got to.
12:13
Comment From Jim
AJ Burnett pitches for the ___________ next year
12:13
Eno Sarris: Pirates.
12:14
Comment From Razor
Considering taking over an abandoned ottoneu team, and have never played ottoneu. Advice?
12:14
Eno Sarris: It’s both deep and it’s not. 40 man rosters mean you have to draft your waiver picks and prospects, but 12-team league means you need to have a starting lineup that looks like a mixed league.
12:14
Comment From Guest
Eno what are some bands you have been enjoying recently?
12:15
Eno Sarris: Lorde, Cults, Holy Ghost, Clasixx…
12:15
Comment From David
At some point doesn’t Tanaka make sense for teams like the Nats or Texas. If Garza and Ervin are asking for 5+ years and 100+…How would you rate those pitchers…granted the estimated 75 mil posting fee is a downer..its a one time fee – eh.
12:16
Eno Sarris: Still makes most sense for Rangers, Dodgers, Yankees, Sox — teams near the lux tax. A little bit for Giants, but they have a bunch of owners that have to get together and pay that one-time fee.
12:16
Comment From Henry
How’s the WAR baseline working out for everyone? It’s been a while since we’ve talked about that.
12:16
Eno Sarris: Still differences in the calculations, which is something people missed.
12:17
Comment From RotoLando
I am suffering with Ryan Howard and Paul Konerko. Got any deep dynasty 1B picks?
12:17
Eno Sarris: I don’t love Cron, but he’s close and the Angels need to get some pitching. I hate Ike Davis less than most people. Khris Davis might get another shot in Milwaukee, even though it didn’t go great the first time.
12:17
Comment From Steve
Thoughts on Brad Miller next year?
12:18
Eno Sarris: I like him. I think he could do a Brian Dozier type thing, with more batting average upside.
12:18
Comment From Jacque
How many pitchers do you recommend keeping in a keep 8? I have Price, Scherzer, Hamels (and Bailey hanging out somewhere). Would you keep Heyward over one and go with 2 pitchers?
12:19
Eno Sarris: Definitely no more than three. I do like Heyward, but that’s a tough group to find a dropper. I might shop one in two for one… maybe even Price even though he’ll bring back less. And don’t forget there was once a league-wide certainty that Scherzer wouldn’t stay healthy.
12:19
Comment From Adam
Terry Francona said on a radio appearance yesterday that Yan Gomes will be the everyday catcher. Over/under 4.5 WAR for Gomes in 2014.
12:20
Eno Sarris: Santana is the first baseman? Wow! Thing about Gomes is track record. Last time was the first time he made contact and showed power at the same time almost. But I’d take the over on four WAR.
12:20
Comment From dbet
Do you have any sleeper pitchers in mind for next year’s drafts? I’ll definitely be targeting Cole and Cobb a round early.
12:22
Eno Sarris: Shelby Miller! Danny Salazar. Bounce backs from Samardzija, Price.
12:22
Eno Sarris: There will be plenty of time to add to this list by March.
12:22
Comment From Jackie
How do you feel about a proposed Andrus for Kemp deal with the Dodgers kicking in about 20 mil to Texas?
12:23
Eno Sarris: Still a lot of money on Kemp’s contract. Andrus more likely to return his value. And Kemp’s plate discipline is not good, and his defense isn’t either, even when he’s got the power / speed thing going.
12:23
Comment From Guest No. 1
Is Billy hamilton the most perfect candidate in MLB history to bat 9th after the pitcher?
12:24
Eno Sarris: I think eighth is great. They’ll be tempted to walk him to get to the pitcher, but…
12:24
Comment From Marty
What did you think of the AFL’s experiment with replay?
12:24
Eno Sarris: Would have said it was too much but they admitted they were pushing the envelope to see how it would work. In more limited use, I think it’ll be fine.
12:24
Comment From Guest No. 1
I forced myself to enjoy my Enjoy By by the deadline date. It was amazing, but a bomber at 9.8 abv on a tuesday night doesnt make for a fun Wednesday
12:24
Comment From Ian
I am the Most Valuable Chatter.
12:24
Comment From person hscer
the space jam thing isn’t *really* a 30 for 30, but a 30 for 30 parody. i think. i’ve not seen it
12:25
Eno Sarris: egg on face enjoy by interlude
12:25
Comment From Henry
Don’t forget that Liriano gets 4-5 games a year against the Cubs
12:25
Comment From Jacque
If you were in Burnett’s situation, presumably happy with the Pirates and wanting to pitch with only them next year, would you have removed your leverage by stating that it was them or retirement?
12:25
Eno Sarris: no. but I haven’t made millions of dollars.
12:25
Comment From LarryA
Do you think all teams rate Bourjos as high as Cameron, or will he be traded for realatively cheap
12:26
Eno Sarris: It’s hard to avoid recency bias, even for major league teams, and he hasn’t been great recently. I bet he’s included in a larger package.
12:26
Comment From Razor
Starting in ottoneu, did you just kind of get a feel for player valuation, or do you a run a specific analysis (like $/WAR for example) that gives you an idea of how players are being valued in the league?
12:27
Eno Sarris: You’ll get some help from Chad Young if plunk down the five bucks for FanGraphs plus. But yeah, no defense, so dollars per wOBA would be a good idea. Problem is, you’re taking over a team, and you don’t know what’s in the pool. So some of it will be intuitive.
12:27
12:27
Eno Sarris: Weird Al huh
12:28
Comment From SSMeatHammer
Trevor Story: Took him last year in the Dev draft and he really stunk it up/looks lost. I have the #2 Dev pick next year (keep 4 porospects) and with a good crop at AA, I’m thinking I might cut bait on Story and pick up someone with more upside/closer to the show. Thoughts?
12:28
Eno Sarris: He’s still young, but 33% strikeout rate in High-A, whoof. I think you could move on.
12:28
Comment From Jacque
Three BHam questions: 1. What round are you taking him if he is a starting OF? 2. Is there any merit to him taking over at 2B? 3. Where would you take him if he was starting at 2B?
12:30
Eno Sarris: Can’t speak to 2 until trades happen, but if he was a marginal SS, he might be able to handle 2B. I might take him a round earlier if he was going to be an MI, especially since a no-power speedster at 2B is kind of perfect, where the average top-12er only hits like 12 homers anyway. He becomes tempting to me after four rounds — I’d like to have a couple five-cat guys, maybe a pitcher, and a position of need filled before I take a flier like that. Big risk.
12:30
Comment From bob
Rumblings about the Cubs swapping some minor-league position players with some of the Marlins’ minor-league pitchers. I don’t see any pitchers in the Marlins’system worth any of the Cubs’ top position guys. Is there a scenario that makes sense for both teams?
12:31
Eno Sarris: Heaney? He’s close and polished and pretty good. Almora is further away than most, and sometimes teams use the AFL as a showcase for trades?
12:31
Comment From LAstros Fan
What’s your take on Villar for next year? Will he be able to get on base enough to showcase his speed?
12:32
Eno Sarris: Do not like. That plate discipline makes me think he’s a .220 true talent hitter, which brings his OBP down to maybe under .300 if there’s BABIP regression.
12:32
Comment From Razor
Can we get a kickstarter together for Eno’s vanity California license plate to be “LUDED”
12:33
Eno Sarris: oh man someone sent me a picture of a car with a ‘ludes’ license plate which is like such a bad idea. in a related story, my first car was a teal hyundai accent with a spoiler and a license plate that said eno and I had so many different emotions at the same time when I saw that.
12:33
Comment From Alex Anthopolous
Whats my rotation like in 2014?
12:34
Eno Sarris: Dickey, Buehrle, Redmond, Hutchison, Stroman? They don’t have a ton of money left…
12:34
Comment From Razor
Cobb County is financing $276 mil to the braves new stadium. If I’m opposed to publicly funded stadiums, can I still attend games there without being a hypocrite? (i.e., please justify me continuing to go to ballgames)
12:35
Eno Sarris: oh man I’m so pissed. I mean I’ll go. it’s baseball and f’ed if stupid politicians will take that from me. but I’m pissed. if you have vote…
12:35
Comment From Justin
I wonder how long Dave spent staring at his computer this morning wondering if he had to write 500 words about Nick Punto signing with the A’s.
12:35
Comment From Marty
“Buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo” is a grammatically correct sentence. Mind Blown.
12:36
Comment From Marty
Yes, 30/30 on Space Jam is a parody…shouldve specified. Eno, you’re too trusting! I blame the West Coast…
12:36
Eno Sarris: I enjoyed that one.
12:36
Comment From Andrew
What would be your reasonable amount of annual salary to forego, to do something you maybe would enjoy instead of something you kinda hate?
12:36
Eno Sarris: Man I’d like to tell you what I did. Let’s just say this: I make half of what I did three years ago.
12:37
Comment From Marty
SP Sleeper: Ventura?
12:37
Eno Sarris: Good one. But watch the helium. Right now, it’s a bit of gas and not a great idea of where it’s going.
12:37
Comment From Guest
Mat Latos, Zack Wheeler, Taijuan Walker, Michael Wacha…can only choose 1 for next year…who would you take?
12:37
Eno Sarris: I can’t see a great argument against Mat Latos, unless it starts with Michael Wacha’s age. Wish we’d seen more of his curve.
12:38
Comment From Henry
Pick one category to sort by and then draft with for all of batting and pitching
12:38
Eno Sarris: K%.
12:38
Comment From Colin
Think it’s worth packaging Castro with Shark to go all in on pitching? I find it hard to trade a 23 year old with near 700 hits.
12:38
Eno Sarris: I don’t think they have to, and they can try to recoup some value on Castro.
12:38
Comment From Nolan
have you had the Karl Strauss peanut butter cup porter? I don’t like Strauss, but man alive that beer is good.
12:38
Eno Sarris: I do want to try one of these. I’m getting that Jesus one from Duclaw in the mail soon. Will report back. Seems crazy.
12:39
Comment From LAstros Fan
So…Mauer is going to man first base is he? In a world where he isn’t eligible at catcher next year, what is his value as a BA specialist essentially?
12:39
Eno Sarris: Hosmer like. Still top twelve, maybe not top four or five.
12:39
Comment From vivalajeter
If Hamilton bats 8th, does it make more sense to bunt him to 2nd and have him steal third, or have him steal 2nd then bunt him to third?
12:40
Eno Sarris: Steal both. Let the pitcher swing away while it’s happening.
12:40
Comment From juan pierres mustache
recently i’ve been taking the train to work and suddenly I read two books a week as a result of all this time sitting on trains. Any book recommendations, ideally stuff that’s easy to digest in half hour increments?
12:40
Eno Sarris: I love David Sedaris.
12:40
Comment From RotoLando
We have to go deeper! *BWAMMMMMMMMMMM* How about at the Greg Bird/DJ Peterson/Kyle Parker level? Is 1B the crappiest position to try and home grow?
12:41
Eno Sarris: Oh. Yeah. Don’t do it. People find old 1Bs in baseball all the time. Try to get a Corey Hart guy. Parker could have a chance, but probably going to be Cuddyer, no? I’d play it like the Rays.
12:41
Comment From LarryA
Cespedes or Alex Gordon next year?
12:41
Eno Sarris: Cespedes. I think his true talent BA is .265 or so, and he has more power.
12:41
Comment From Jack
paxton from the Mainers? how good?
12:41
Eno Sarris: I thought no good, but apparently the knee was the source of his control problems. He looked much better and was hitting 94. Now the only problem is a third pitch. Might still be a back-end real and fantasy starter if he doesn’t improve on it.
12:42
Comment From vivalajeter
Peralta is looking for a contract north of 3 years, $45MM. I thought he’d be a good signing for the Mets, since he’d get 2 years, $16-20MM. Any chance he really gets that contract, or is that more in line with “yeah, and I’d like a bj from Christy Turlington”?
12:43
Eno Sarris: Really worried about his SS defense. I think it’s all positioning, no athleticism. And his bat doesn’t really play at other posiitons if you pay him like a shortstop. And then I *think* the past indicates that PED guys get shorter deals. So I still think it’ll be two years, and maybe over that time frame he’s a cheaper/shorter term alternative to Drew.
12:43
Comment From Guest
Billy Beane says that, with Balfour out the door, the A’s are looking for a closer. I can’t imagine he’s talking about a #provencloser. But if Cook/Doolittle are the heirs apparent, who’s the next Balfour in Oaktown?
12:44
Eno Sarris: I guess Mujica is too proven? Veras? If a non-closer… Joba? Crain?
12:45
Comment From Jake@BaseballProf
What do you think we can reasonably expect from Smyly as a starter next year. I think he can have an ERA in low 3.00 range and around 170k. 12+ wins as well.
12:46
Eno Sarris: We laughed that he was like the only reliever that didn’t get a velocity boost out of the pen… he stopped throwing his change in short stints. Great command though. I’d give him the over on 3.5 ERA, but 8 k/9? Sure.
12:46
Comment From Guest
Better keeper, Rizzo in the 8th? Or Carlos Gomez in the 10th
12:46
Eno Sarris: I love Rizzo. But Gomez two rounds later is the guy.
12:46
Comment From Colin
Didn’t I read a million stories about how “in love” the Cubs front office was with Almora when they drafted him?
12:47
Eno Sarris: They all love their guys until they don’t. Soler has more worrisome plate discipline, but he’s a monster, and they’ll probably want to see more before they trade. Baez is not getting traded now. or Bryant. I doubt Szczur gets em much.
12:47
Comment From Nico
If Wong is the everyday 2B next season, is .260 with 30-35 steals a reasonable projection?
12:48
Eno Sarris: On that team, I think I’d push that down to 20+ steals. maybe ten homers.
12:48
Comment From Bruce
Do you or anyone in this chat know if the Trop sells Cigar City? Jai Alai would make Rays games pretty enjoyable
12:48
Eno Sarris: Yes I’ve def heard you can get Cigar City inside, and that makes the Trop more interesting to me!
12:48
Comment From david
Dickey bounce back?
12:49
Eno Sarris: Sounds like something you should do thin privacy of your own home. yes, though, to an extent, I believe the issues were do to his back/neck health problems.
12:49
Comment From Stumped
Keep three: C. Davis, A. McCutchen, E. Longoria, J. Reyes, A. Jones
12:49
Eno Sarris: The first three. Jones/Longo is the hardest decision. I guess you could go Jones actually. But he’s going to keep stealing fewer bases, and the batting average is actually going to be a risk one year.
12:50
Comment From Pirates Hurdles
Whoa about did a spit take, over 4 WAR for Gomes in 2014?! So he’ll be a top 5 C in MLB (only 5 guys reached 4 WAR this year)? Seems like some babip regression is coming and the K:BB isnt great.
12:51
Eno Sarris: I do think there’s a lot more regression coming, but he managed 3.5 in limited playing time. Checks page again. 322 PAs? Okay I’d take the over on 3.5. Regression going one way, playing time value going the other way.
12:51
Comment From John
Speaking of Eno-related vanity license plates – I saw a PA plate in Cherry Hill NJ over the weekend that said ENOBONG. Couldn’t take a pic but I swear it’s true!
12:51
Eno Sarris: Wow.
12:51
Comment From Sadwick
I like how the justification for Cobb County voters not getting a say in funding the new stadium comes down to “Hey it’s not a tax hike, it’s just crippling debt.”
12:51
Comment From Seymour
speaking of Villar, what are the Stros SS options? ’14 is premature for Correa. What do they think of Fontana?
12:51
Eno Sarris: It’s Villar.
12:51
Comment From Todd
Lavarnway have any catching value in 2014 and beyond? How about a different position?
12:52
Eno Sarris: Let’s see how FA works out. If they don’t sign a starter, absolutely. If they do, well, it doesn’t bode well for him. Not sure he has the bat for first. probably not actually.
12:52
Comment From Sadwick
How many crappy Fozzie bear jokes can we expect from the mainstream reporters now that Wacha is getting attention?
12:53
Eno Sarris: *sticks his wacha wacha wacha no-hit inning counter in his back pocket* / *whistles*
12:53
Comment From Mark
Who is your “Brokeback Mountain” player, the one man whom you just can not quit? For me it is Morrow. So much potential!
12:53
Eno Sarris: Heyward, Lawrie.
12:53
Comment From Razor
Crazy thing is Cobb Co residents can’t even vote on the proposal, since technically there aren’t any new taxes being assessed… just existing taxes taken away to finance the stadium. So their only recourse is to vote out the officials that vote for it, like Miami did. But then it’ll be too late anyway.
12:53
Comment From dude
Lude me up!
12:53
Comment From person hscer
Paul would be unhappy that you didn’t suggest the Hardball Times book
12:53
Eno Sarris: Done!
12:53
Comment From Seymour
Mets obviously will not be high bidder for Choo, so you’re saying Cruz?!? Holy crap. I think it’s pretty clear that the Mets WILL NOT sign anyone that will cost a pick.
12:55
Eno Sarris: Their pick is protected, if they don’t sign a guy that ‘would’ cost a pick, they let an opportunity go wasted and they open themselves up for back biting. I think they sign one guy that ‘would’ cost a pick, but won’t for them, but it’ll be the guy who falls. If Grandy falls to 3/45, I like him despite his flaws. They won’t sign the most expensive position player, I agree.
12:55
Eno Sarris: As for ‘it’s pretty clear’ — this front office has been shackled by ownership and Madoff is what’s clear to me. If those shackles are off — I can’t say they are, but they say they are — then let’s see what they do with some cash before we write them off.
12:55
Eno Sarris: And last: free agents are all bad deals.
12:56
Comment From the farm
What outfielder will be more productive in 2014: Marlon Byrd or Chris Young? Over the next two years? Who will earn more money over that period?
12:57
Eno Sarris: Great question. Moobs altered his swing but also got busted for PEDs recently. Young is a better defender, so he’ll get value there. I bet he costs less, for sure. But if Byrd continues to jack fly balls… I’ll take Byrd on value, Young on value per dollar.
12:57
Comment From Guest
What is your best argument against Danny Salazar being good?
12:57
Eno Sarris: He gets predictable when he falls behind in the count, goes to the fastball, and then gives up jacks. That seems pretty fixable.
12:58
12:58
Eno Sarris: Oh the MLB doesn’t like the posting process now? They must not like the idea of being fined if they don’t agree to sign a player…
12:58
Comment From sid
Any hope for Pineda this year?
12:58
Eno Sarris: more than zero, for sure. Had a whole year, was young when he had the surgery. Probably still doesn’t have a changeup tho.
12:59
Comment From Harry
Other than Cruz, Ellsbury, Beltran, and the Dodger OF glut, who might the Mariners target for their holes out there?
12:59
Eno Sarris: So many holes. Anyone with a bat that’s available I guess. Saw Butler today.
12:59
Comment From Guest no.1
No grateful dead for you, Eno?
12:59
Eno Sarris: Sure. Not in my regular rotation, but it’s on my ipod and shows up when I’m driving. Pops listens to them all the time.
1:00
Comment From vivalajeter
I just googled your name, saw your LinkedIn page, and it said you worked for Cengage and you were in the publishing business. It’s all out in the public, man!
1:00
Eno Sarris: OH NO NOT CENGAGE… actually let me plug my last job: Kumon Publishing’s workbooks are awesome sauce for 2-8 year olds.
1:01
Comment From Sadwick
Wilson might make some sense for the A’s.
1:01
Eno Sarris: Not bad, as long as he doesn’t cost a lot.
1:01
Comment From Guest no.1
Grady Sizemore: Over under 50 ABs rest of career?
1:01
Eno Sarris: Donezo?
1:01
Eno Sarris: Oh man the Mets are going to sign him aren’t they haha. IF it’s minor league, why not.
1:01
Comment From Marty
Joba seems like a Rays golden ticket in the making.
1:02
Eno Sarris: I’d like the Mets to sign him. I think there’s a chance there’s something still there.
1:02
Comment From Seymour
Daniel Murphy for Brett Anderson + Jemile Weeks? despite the Sogard/Punto platoon!
1:02
Eno Sarris: Fits the A’s philosophy of no D on IF, but it’s not enough and they have a glut now. They’ll be looking to trade off Sogard or Callaspo.
1:02
Comment From Pirates Hurdles
Top prospect for top prospect trades never happen, name one?
1:03
Eno Sarris: That’s why I reached down for Almora. Almora for Heaney wouldn’t touch anyone’s top 20, would they?
1:03
Comment From Daniel W
Of SP with >20 innings last year, Jenrry Mejia led the league in SIERA. What should I expect from him this coming season?
1:04
Eno Sarris: Surgery was worrisome, but the pitching coach taught him a new pitch, which is great. I’d pick him up at the end of a mixed league draft, sure. Pay real prospects for him in a deep dynasty? dunno.
1:04
Comment From LarryA
Why do Cuban players start as FAs, and not just enter the draft. If I was Castro, Id initiate some sort of posting requirement à la Japan to get some money coming in.
1:04
Eno Sarris: Politics are crazy man.
1:04
Comment From RotoLando
Its been a while, but I think you can get Cigar City Jai Alai, Maduro, and Hotter then Helles in the Trop.
1:04
Comment From Marty
The Marlins helped Jose Fernandez’s grandmother get to the states, then surprised him and reunited them. Pretty great video. Good job Marlins (we dont get to say that often).
1:04
Comment From Colin
For the record, I agree. Seems silly to trade away your org strength (4 of the best hitting prospects in the game) while you’re still a few years away from competing and have no idea what you are yet as a team.
1:04
Comment From Billy Beane
Will there be a second surge of something like moneyball, where poor teams find a new way to adapt to richer teams? Or will the poor teams die out again after the rich teams catch on to the value of sabermetrics
1:05
Eno Sarris: Always a cycle, IMO. Look at Pittsburgh. They teach everyone ground balls and then shift like maniacs. Oakland buys fly ball pitchers and gets great fly-catchers in OF, skimps on IF D. If big market copies one of those things, you do the other. Or something new.
1:05
Comment From John
Samardjiza or Liriano? Close?
1:06
Eno Sarris: Samardzija for me because of injury risk with Liriano.
1:06
Comment From palo alto
I won my 10-team 5×5 dynasty league by nearly 30 points this season and will consider skipping the 2014 auction and going with the same roster for the entire season (but making daily lineup changes). I’m likely to drop quickly in the standings, but should the other owners be upset with me as a relatively inactive manager?
1:06
Eno Sarris: I doubt you’d win so I doubt they’d be that pissed.
1:06
Comment From LarryA
Which hops are the most citrusy?
1:07
Eno Sarris: Citra? This looks pretty awesome http://zekeshore.com/hops_v1.12.png
1:07
Comment From Aaron
Do you think Strop and Alcantara would net Porcello for the Cubs?
1:07
Eno Sarris: No
1:07
Comment From Mike Rizzo
How risky do you think it would be to pick up Scherzer in a trade? I see him as a guy with only one year of control, funky mechanics (injury risk?) and only one dominant season driven by a fluky BABIP (.260, 40 points below his career average and 45 points below his previous best). I think he’s likely a solid #3 (116 career ERA+) but not an ace that will make a serious run at another Cy Young
1:07
Eno Sarris: Nah he’s legit, just look at the strikeouts. Strikeouts depress BABIP and LOB. Injury risk on one year not as big a deal. Signing him long term is another.
1:08
Comment From david
The Nats have me confused. So much talent and not a bunch of run scorers. Now this talk about moving Span? what would a return be for Span? Better or worse than Meyer who the Nats gave up? Starting SP like Jarrod Parker?
1:08
Eno Sarris: Doesn’t make sense, was shot down.
1:09
Comment From Rothbard
Just got here, had a couple lagunita IPAs and a shot of Red Breast whiskey for lunch. No question. Just feeling good.
1:09
Comment From James
Do you think investment in foreign prospects will increase or decrease in the next ten years?
1:09
Eno Sarris: Probably get more regulated, like they did with international pool money, so go down.
1:09
Comment From Marty
Wilpon supposedly said they don’t want to lose ANY pick, so they’d lose the second rounder if they went with a QO denier. It seems like the Mets continue to find excuses to not add payroll. also, Alderson’s joke about his stack of $5 has NY fans really pissed.
1:10
Eno Sarris: Here’s my general feeling about this though. Are we sure Alderson is the direction our ire should be directed. As a fan, mine is directed at the owners.
1:10
Comment From Guest
JJ Hardy for Shelby Miller obviously wasn’t getting it done. What about Hardy for Lynn? Or do the Cards just set their sights higher?
1:11
Eno Sarris: Miller is a more attractive piece than Lynn. Problem is that the O’s are competitive and need Hardy.
1:11
Comment From LarryA
If Mookie Betts is a decent prospect than Rougned Odor must be an A+ prospect. 1.5 years younger, one level higher and only slightly less output
1:12
Eno Sarris: Completely different plate discipline. Odor’s below-average patience and average K% puts him in a completely different bust percentage bucket.
1:12
Comment From Guest
I guessed Tame Impala just from “updated Beatles.” Finally I knew one!
1:12
Eno Sarris: So I’m not crazy, good.
1:12
Comment From LAstros Fan
Speaking of Chris Young, He seems to play well in Houston….Do you think the ‘Stros have a shot at him? Seems like their kind of guy. Relatively cheap, Could fit in a few places on that young squad of players.
1:15
Eno Sarris: Boston just said he’s their backup plan. I guess Houston could use an OF. I think they’ll just cherry pick a couple falling FAs. Problem is that Rays, Mets, (A’s?) are all going to be doing the same thing.
1:15
Comment From Bruce
Are runs down in general in baselball or just more spread out? These days it seems like hardly anyone gets to 100 runs anymore. Leadoff men are getting 70. 10 of 12 teams in my fantasy league had way more runs than RBIs. Obviously you cant have RBIs without runs, but I cant figure out where they all are
1:16
Eno Sarris: Runs down in baseball. Offense down. Lot of reasons though.
1:16
Comment From dbet
I’m waiting in line for several hours tonight to purchase a computer that doesn’t do much besides play games. What should I do while waiting in line for a PS4?
1:16
Eno Sarris: Rosterbate your dynasty team.
1:16
Comment From Guest
Do the Royal sign anyone this offseason that matters? Do they matter?
1:16
Eno Sarris: Ervin Santana. Maybe a surprise on a pitcher.
1:17
Comment From Steve
I’m expanding my keeper fantasy league from 10 to 12 this year. How do I contact someone from FanGraphs and/or submit an article to the site for other’s to comment on about the best ways to do the new teams keepers?
1:17
Eno Sarris: Could try the community blog.
1:17
Comment From Curtis
Will Juan Lagares repeat/exceed his defensive magic next year?
1:17
Eno Sarris: He’s very good defensively. Might just regress because the numbers were so crazy.
1:17
Comment From the farm
For what it’s worth, Steamer projects a 2014 WAR of 0.6 for Marlon Byrd (ouch!) and 1.7 for Chris Young.
1:17
Comment From Cool WHIP
Adam Dunn stole 19 bases in 2002. That is all.
1:18
Comment From person hscer
best cheese w/ham?
1:18
Eno Sarris: Swiss Lude
1:18
Comment From John
Any reason for optimism with BJ Upton?
1:18
Eno Sarris: Career track record, age. I think he can .250/20/30 again.
1:18
Comment From Jake@BaseballProf
Do you expect Jose Fernandez to produce Max Scherzer like numbers next year without an innings limit handcuff?
1:19
Eno Sarris: Unsure he’ll hit the same strikeout levels. And he’s being picked top six, seven in mocks, which seems early.
1:19
Comment From Charles
Which of the three should Texas move for 1B/OF/DH help…Elvis, Ian or Profar?
1:19
Eno Sarris: Kinsler. Fewest years under control, defense slipping. Oldest.
1:19
Comment From Seymour
don’t take it from me, Rubin is saying his Met source says they aren’t going to sign a player who costs a pick (forget that it’s a 2nd for the Mets) aside from Choo and they dont want to go over 4 yrs for him so that effectively means not him either. your move.
1:20
Eno Sarris: See all my other responses. Are we playing a game here?
1:20
Comment From Ed
Hey Eno! I need to decide whether to keep Matt Kemp at $35 in a league that has significant inflation and with rf/cf/lf. Help!
1:20
Eno Sarris: Don’t like it. That’s second-round prices for a guy that has second-to-late-first upside … if he bounces back.
1:20
Comment From Sagar
I was able to pick up Straily and Cashner before the season ended in my dynasty league. Do you think they continue where they left off?
1:21
Eno Sarris: Straily’s changeup is important, that’s why he went through 17 grips to get it. Cashner has much more upside, and more health risk. As far as performance, I’d bet on Cash. Health, Straily.
1:21
Comment From Marty
How much longer until the QOs go away, and player comp is no longer tied to the draft? It doesn’t make any sense now.
1:22
Eno Sarris: Kyle Lohse was so pissed about it when we talked. Bet the MLBPA takes it on next CBA.
1:22
Comment From Marty
Alderson is on camera more, so maybe it’s unfair, but he’s getting destroyed daily. People are just annoyed, and they see a window where the Yankees arent the favorites anymore.
1:22
Comment From vivalajeter
Personally, I see nothing wrong with what Alderson said. Why can’t a GM be funny? If the team sucks next March, complain. But don’t complain about a sense of humor.
1:22
Eno Sarris: Love those comments right in a row in the queue.
1:22
Comment From Nick
Eno, where on the west coast do you live? I’m thinking about moving out to Seattle.
1:22
Eno Sarris: Northern California. Bay Area.
1:22
Comment From RotoLando
Can you dunk a basketball?
1:23
Eno Sarris: LOL. No. But I hit a three or two every pickup session, and can do a decent hook shot from the top of the key, and can dribble both ways… my problems are basketball IQ (when to cut) and finishing left-handed. Also, don’t have that big man RAGE in the post.
1:24
Comment From Marty
That swiss lude shouldve been a brie lude
1:24
Comment From Chicago Mark
Hey Eno, I know it’s way early but do you see more trips to Chicago next year? Maybe south this time.
1:24
Eno Sarris: My BeerGraphs co-founder is in Chicago. I’ll be back often.
1:24
Comment From Ed
Eno, I know you’ve been concerned about Springer’s K rates, but does his power/speed potential and proximity to majors make him a better keeper than Kris Bryant? Or does Bryant’s offense win out?
1:25
Eno Sarris: Doubt Bryant is a 3B — he was pretty bad when I saw him in Arizona — so we’re talking two OFs. Both K a bit much, but Springer is crazy in that regard. Both highly regarded. Haven’t seen a ton of Springer. For me, I’m reaching for Bryant.
1:26
Comment From Guest
So Nick Punto is kind of whatever, but do you think this increases the chances the A’s part with Lowrie. He seems like the kind of guy they pick up, raise his value, and move.
1:26
Eno Sarris: They keep claiming no. I like Callaspo’s ability to make contact on that team, but he might be the one to go. Doubt Sogard brings much back.
1:27
Comment From dbet
I like the system the NFL uses for compensatory picks. Basically if you lose in free agency more than you gained, you’ll be awarded extra picks. Think something like this could work in MLB?
1:27
Eno Sarris: Need to know more. Will check it out.
1:27
Comment From Bruce
re you chugging SN Celebration by the gallonful right now?
1:27
Eno Sarris: Love love.
1:27
Comment From Chicago Mark
Do you see anything in Henderson Alverez stuff that will make him a better strikeout pitcher in the future? He has a wicked fastball.
1:27
Eno Sarris: I love his fastball. He’s got nothing else is my explanation for not being better. I mean the slider is okay, but there’s enough of a track record now, I don’t think the Ks are coming.
1:28
Comment From person hscer
i need to find a pickup basketball game. maybe get in shape first
1:28
Eno Sarris: pickup ball is my way to get in shape. on days I don’t play I practice.
1:28
Comment From Miketron
Who is more likely to be traded this offseason: Jose Bautista or Max Scherzer?
1:28
Eno Sarris: Gonna take neither. And be lame.
1:28
Comment From Marty
Do the Yankees sign Brendan Ryan?
1:28
Eno Sarris: yes.
1:28
Comment From Guest
Do you think the Indians will be aggressive in the offseason? Fans are worried that last time they were competitive (2007) they stood pat the next year, resulting in them falling off and trading 2 Cy Youngs for Michael Brantley.
1:29
Eno Sarris: Aggressive? Doesn’t sound like them. But they do need to figure out some pitching. Dunno how.
1:29
Comment From Marty
What do the Os do to help that rotation?
1:30
Eno Sarris: Hope Gausman finds it? He’s the one with ace potential, and they don’t really have the money to go get Tanaka, do they?
1:30
Comment From Charles
Odds on Corey Hart being as valuable offensively coming off injury?
1:30
Eno Sarris: 60%? In short term? I mean, he’s not 38 or anything.
1:30
Comment From Big Mami
Is there any real trade value left for Freese? Stl seems forced into keeping him on the roster nxt year.
1:31
Eno Sarris: Yeah if only he’d had another great postseason. Wrong side of platoon, old. I’ve got the same problem on one of my dynasty teams (20-team, 28-keeper) and I’m not even bothering to shop him.
1:31
Comment From Seymour
of course the FA comp makes sense if your goal is to keep salaries in check.
1:32
Eno Sarris: So the MLBPA will beat their bodies against it and try to effect another small change to the system which will have a butterfly effect that they didn’t consider… it’s actually kind of fun.
1:32
Comment From Guest
RE Indians: Masterson, Salazar, Kluber, McCalister and Kazmir/ubaldo/free agent X isnt a terrible rotation. Bullpen is a mess but performance is so volatile that they could sign a few arms be okay, no?
1:33
Eno Sarris: Yeah my point is that it needs that extra guy or two. McC is best as number six IMO. So four and five need to be filled. Cody Allen is great, maybe they can convert a guy, pick up a retread and be okay in the pen. But I’d feel better if they got two starters.
1:33
Comment From Seymour
no game at all. just saying that despite the assumption by some, don’t expect the Mets to sign anyone of the 13 players tied to comp. I’m not saying they won’t be active but I expect it to be at a lower level. It’s why I’ve said that a guy like Nolasco could be a very solid value and possible make Gee expendable bc they clearly cannot use the FA market to fill all their holes.
1:35
Eno Sarris: A good veteran starting pitcher would be helpful, “innings eater.” And they should do due diligence on the guys that have picks attached just in case they fall too much — that’s the only reason I have my eye on Grandy. But if Choo goes for over $100 million, I don’t think I want the Mets in on it anyway. And I really don’t blame Alderson for any of this.
1:35
Comment From Seymour
and guys like Ike, Murphy and Duda have limited value, and they aren’t likely to deal Wheeler, Noah or Montero…
1:35
Eno Sarris: They’ve said Montero is movable and have some bites on Ike FWIW.
1:35
Comment From LarryA
What if your son chooses soccer over baseball?
1:37
Eno Sarris: Is fine. I did everything as a kid. lessons/camps/leagues for: soccer, tennis, horseback-riding, swimming, baseball, basketball. Awful at all of it other than okay at tennis, swimming and just too small for basketball before my growth spurts.
1:37
Comment From Andrew
Would you let your son play football if he wanted to?
1:37
Eno Sarris: Really really really hope he doesn’t want to.
1:37
Comment From pau
Derosa in an interview with a Toronto radio station mentioned the Jays needing to sign “winners”, guys who have played postseason ball. This isn’t exactly tangible in any statistical analysis but kind of makes sense. Do you see any truth in this statement?
1:38
Eno Sarris: I’ll buy that there are degrees of difference in the ability for major leaguers to cope with stress, foster good work environments, and stay healthy. These things are my intangibles that I believe exist. Those things might lead to winning, but I’d be looking from a different direction.
1:38
Comment From vivalajeter
Who was your favorite Met when you were younger? Mine was Piazza. When I read his book earlier this year, I was shocked that he loves cigars as much as I do. I would’ve gone to Occidental more often when he played for the A’s, to try to bump into him. I did see Paul Pierce there, but I couldn’t care less about the Celtics.
1:38
Eno Sarris: Kinda dug Rey Ordonez. Dunno why. Just slick.
1:39
Comment From Bruce
Do you practice ball in your driveway?
1:39
Eno Sarris: Church court lol.
1:39
Eno Sarris: Okay. Gotta go! Big things coming to FG. Today, Jason Collette! Tomorrow, who knows.
1:39
Eno Sarris: Later guys!
1:39
Comment From Miketron
Take it easy eno
1:39
Comment From person hscer
bye thanks eno



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Graphs: Baseball, Roto, Beer, brats (OK, no graphs for that...yet), repeat. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris.


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