Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 11/7/13

11:48
Eno Sarris: HEYO
12:00
Eno Sarris: Lyrics of the day come from a song that’s either searing social commentary or a love ballad about survival:

And naaw I don’t want to see your thongs
I kinda dig them old school cute regular draws
And I will pause for your cause

12:00
Comment From juan pierres mustache
whoa, so early today
12:00
Comment From Argos
Hiya!
12:00
Comment From Man With A Plan
LET’S GET IT STARTED
12:00
Eno Sarris: Starting with an interlude. Just cause.

12:00
Comment From Christopher
Byron Buxton looks nothing like Mike Trout. I wasn’t expecting someone so… slender.
12:01
Eno Sarris: Yeah I think I’ll lower my power expectations a bit, at least right out the gate. Plate discipline was good though, and he made strong contact on a line drive to the outfield in the All-Star game.
12:01
Comment From Kyle
Can Kole Calhoun be a serviceable major leaguer?
12:02
Eno Sarris: I liked him! I saw his numbers, his good plate discipline, okay power, good all-around numbers, and I liked him. I watched him! I thought, huh, well, could work. I talked to Sam Miller! He pointed out that he was old at each level and played in offensive parks. I talked to Jeff Zimmerman! He pointed to some secret sauce that’s coming in FG+ and now I think I might like him again.
12:02
Comment From C-What
Rick Renteria isn’t Joe Girardi! I want my money back! – Heads of Meat.
12:03
Eno Sarris: I have no idea how to appraise manager selections unless they have a major league track record of position player bunting %, and maybe innings per reliever.
12:03
Comment From Corey
Is there a FA you are most interested in tracking?
12:04
Eno Sarris: Curtis Granderson. I agree with Dave Cameron’s points about his age and injury, but I also find it hard to blame Grandy for getting hit by a ball, and I think if he’s 3/36 (Ken Davidoff prediction) or 3/45 (mine), then he’ll be 60+ million cheaper than Choo, and that seems wrong. I wanted Choo for the Mets but now I think Grandy and some extra cash works too.
12:04
Comment From Dave
What can we expect from Wilmer Flores in 2014?
12:05
Eno Sarris: A trade? Flores, Rafael Montero and D’Arnaud might actually get the Mets into talks for a really good player… and there have been signs that all three are available.
12:05
Comment From pogotheostrich
If McCann signs with Boston, Texas or the Yankees does his value go up? Where would you rank him against of catchers for fantasy?
12:06
Eno Sarris: We joke on the podcast that there are 10 catchers from around 6 to 16 that can do .260/15-20. I think McCann is safely above that scrum.
12:06
Comment From First Time Poster
Having some trouble figuring out my preliminary final 3 keepers (in a keep 27) for next year. In a vacuum, who would you choose out of M. Montero, KR Davis, Nova, Kazmir, Heaney, Butler, ERam and R. Montero.
12:07
Eno Sarris: Erasmo? Is that E-Ram? Huh. Well.. I like what Nova did actually, and he’s young but with established track record, so I think he’s in. Billy Butler? I have to think he’s in. Davis vs Kaz/Heaney is interesting… I think I’d go with all major leaguers and take Davis. There’s some risk of a bad platoon split, but I like something about him.
12:07
Comment From First Time Poster
How much can I rely on my minor league OF trio of Hicks, JBJ, and Castallanatos to fill out the final 2/5 OF spots?
12:08
Eno Sarris: You should get one full time outfielder out of the bunch. Two is pushing it. Three is crazy talk.
12:08
Comment From Thomas
Allen Webster or Brett Oberholtzer? 2014 and beyond….
12:08
Eno Sarris: Broke my had punching ALLEN WEBSTER into my computer.
12:08
Comment From BRM
Cingrani a top 25 starter next year?
12:09
Eno Sarris: I don’t think they re-sign Arroyo, but I’m a little worried about the lack of secondary stuff. But a number two in mixed leagues? I’d rather pay number three prices.
12:09
Comment From Justin
Best rainy November day beer?
12:09
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
I had Sierra Nevada’s devESTATEtion Ale (sad story about their lost crop) and enjoyed it. Really like a nice black IPA.
12:10
Eno Sarris: asked and answered. Although you could go sweet with Speedway Stout or Left Hand Milk Stout. I have some of that Sweet Baby Jesus on the way — peanut butter milk stout — so I’ll report back.
12:10
Comment From Nats fan
Yesterday Dave said that Rendon for Scherzer straight up would be an overpay for the nats, so what kinda package would make sense for both teams that the nats could make for scherzer?
12:12
Eno Sarris: I have no idea how to appraise this one because I think both are win-now teams. So I really doubt Scherzer is traded. If he is… Zimm is under control for two more years… or maybe something like Taylor Jordan (close, has some nice whiffs on secondary stuff), plus… what. No idea. Has to be in MLB or really close IMO.
12:12
Comment From First Time Poster
In your opinion, will either Machado or Profar eventually stick at SS? Obviously that would only happen in the case of Profar in the event of a trade, and will heavily depend on Machado’s knee/Hardy’s contract status. Thoughts?
12:13
Eno Sarris: Profar more likely for me. Another year at third, plus knee injury, thinking he’ll stick. But if Profar spends the year not at short, I’ll be flummoxed. Both are athletic enough, but maybe Profar a bit quicker.
12:13
Comment From Curtis
What was your first beer of the off season? (are your beer choices “seasonal” as well?)
12:13
Eno Sarris: If I remember right, it was from a package sent to me from Minnesota, so it might have been a saison, despite it not really being season. I’ll cheat and say Surly Over-Rated, just because that makes sense.
12:13
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Targeting $6-8 first basemen in a 4×4 ottoneu league. Assuming asking price is about the same, who do you prefer: Matt Adams, Anthony Rizzo, or Brendan Belt?
12:14
Eno Sarris: Since steals don’t matter, Rizzo. Adams is interesting, but we don’t know what’s happening with the offseason plans in St Lou yet, and he’ll get shifted more and the BABIP will come down. Rizzo has just a little less power (if he does) and way more contact.
12:14
Comment From First Time Poster
In my dynasty league, there will be 324 players kept going into the draft, leaving a particularly weak crop of players to pick from; however, with new entrants to the league in the form of imported players (Tanaka, Abreu) and the 2013 draft class (Bryant, Appel, Gray). What players -named or not named- would you target for both short term and long term?
12:16
Eno Sarris: I’d rather know where Tanaka was headed, but if you are a win-now team, it absolutely makes sense to go after the guys you’ve mentioned mostly. Appel is really really close, he won’t need to polish much. Bryant’s Ks worry me a bit, but all the scouts said he’s ready with the bat and it’s the glove that’s going to hold him back, if it does. If Tanaka goes NL I might put him first. Abreu in the Cell… his MLE that I believe in, from OLIVER, was .275/.330/.480 or so, which you can bump up in the Cell.
12:16
Comment From STiVo
Steamer projects Trout to post a 7.7 WAR in 2014. You taking the over or under on that number?
12:16
Eno Sarris: Over. Bet he plays center.
12:16
Comment From Curtis
Can Maness/Seigriest get a decent Non-Texas shortstop SS to STL or should they just try to sign Drew?
12:16
Eno Sarris: Too light.
12:16
Comment From Cam
Thoughts on La Stella?
12:17
Eno Sarris: It could work. I think they’ll end up having to keep Uggla, so they just go in with both, and maybe La Stella spends a year at utility. Worse things have happened (Elliot Johnson cough cough).
12:17
Comment From First Time Poster
Thought on Moss in a daily OBP/SLG league for 2014? Will he be serviceable as a 3rd OF in a 5 OF league?
12:17
Eno Sarris: I might put him at 4 or 5, just because you’ll have to platoon him.
12:17
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Eno, you say “you’know” a lot in the podcasts. Is that because it kind of sounds like y’Eno?
12:18
Eno Sarris: Dammit, I gotta work on that. Verbal ticks get annoying. Also, I spent a good portion of my childhood in shell shock because I kept thinking people were calling my name.
12:18
Comment From The Oriole Bird
How much does Machado’s offseason knee surgery and recovery scare you for 2014?
12:18
Eno Sarris: Take away a month, and he was worth about $11 last year… So yeah, worried.
12:18
Comment From First Time Poster
Opinion on Rizzo based on numbers and opinion on Rizzo based on your gut moving forward?
12:19
Eno Sarris: Numbers! He’s got above-average contact rate, doesn’t hit the ball straight in the air, doesn’t infield fly a ton, and has a bit of athleticism. He’s pre-peak. I think a conservative projection is .275/25 and .280/30 is not crazy at all. Plus, the position is screaming out for waiting if you don’t get Goldy.
12:19
Comment From Cool WHIP
Eno! I’ve been trying to develop my palate with different kinds of beer, and I’ve really discovered I enjoy IPAs, but I have trouble distinguishing among different styles/variations of IPAs. How can I start to understand/appreciate the more subtle flavors in beer?
12:20
Eno Sarris: Easiest way is to buy single-hop IPAs. By a Chinook IPA. Citra. Deschutes Chasing Freshies says it’s Chinook on the label. Almanac, Six Point, a few other places do single hop series. Then you’ll know what hops you like. Otherwise, home brewing does the same thing.
12:20
Comment From Ringtone Composer
Clubhous Confidential is back on MLB Network. The best sports show on earth??
12:20
Eno Sarris: I wish it was year round.
12:21
Comment From Guest
With all the buzz around the Northwestern football uniform, what do you think about the intrusion of camo into the MLB uniforms this year? (leaving the Padres out of this due to their pre-standing camo jerseys)
12:21
Eno Sarris: Pass.
12:21
Comment From gump
where can i find information on the physics of splits? i.e., why pitches that dive away from a hitter are harder to hit than pitches that dive in, or why it’s easier to ‘see’ a pitch from an opposite handed pitcher than a same handed pitcher. I understand there’s evidence of it, but has anyone explained *why* it occurs?
12:22
Eno Sarris: I mean I think you just stand in the left-handed batter stance and try to look at a sidearmer and you get your answer. But maybe we should ask Alan Nathan about this. @pobguy on twitter.
12:22
Comment From pogotheostrich
Probably spots for the Reds to trade Phillips? There doesn’t seem to be many options and he isn’t cheap.
12:23
Eno Sarris: Only people calling are people that want to trade their bad 2Bs back. Scutaro, Uggla… I don’t think that’s what the Reds had in mind. If they pay a bunch, maybe they can get a team like Houston or Florida involved… well Houston doesn’t seem like it’ll work. The Nationals could push Zimm to first, Rendon to third, install Phillips and actually improve… hey… that could happen!
12:23
Comment From First Time Poster
Anything other than random occurrence to explain Kipnis’ consecutive 2nd halve slumps?
12:24
Eno Sarris: It’s *possible* he’s a young man that struggles with the work load. If that is true, I bet he works on his strength and endurance this offseason. Otherwise, it’s just random variation, which is much more likely.
12:24
Comment From Walter Reed Nurse
Did anyone’s AFL performance show you something you didn’t expect?
12:25
Eno Sarris: Alex Meyer had more gas than I expected, and his delivery didn’t scream bad control to me. Both secondary pitches are plus, and his no-seam two-seam gets great movement. I think he’s a top-top prospect and close to ready. Tough to bite in mixed redraft leagues until you know he’s up, but do. Otherwise… Brett Nicholas looked good, but I saw three games and in one he hit two homers. Delino Deshields was not interested.
12:25
Comment From Wallace
What exactly ARE front offices looking for in Managers? it sure seems so nebulous…..
12:25
Eno Sarris: Calm fortitude in the face of stress I guess.
12:26
Comment From LarryA
Were there any females at the roto conference?
12:26
Eno Sarris: … No. Well, a couple guys brought their wives, like to the final presentation of the day, before they left to do something. Wish I could say differently.
12:27
Comment From Justin
Whyfore Outkast?
12:27
Eno Sarris: Just cause.
12:27
Comment From Colin
Man, does Albert Almora look good. Does he start High A? AA?
12:27
Eno Sarris: On the fast track, so even if High-A, he’ll be Double-A quickly. And I think a lot of guys were at the AFL to preview Double-A, so he might go right there. Mookie Betts basically told me that.
12:27
Comment From Cool WHIP
Miguel Sano shut down with a strained UCL. How much should Twins fans be concerned? Is this type of thing usually something to worry about with position players?
12:28
Eno Sarris: Pujols has had it for a long time. Plenty thought he as a first baseman anyway…
12:28
Comment From pogotheostrich
How early do you expect Billy Hamilton to go in 2014 drafts?
12:29
Eno Sarris: Man all that helium in the late season… If he has a starting role… second or third round maybe? Seriously! In many drafts at least. i wouldn’t consider him until later, maybe fifth, sixth, seventh. I’d like to have a core three hitters and a starter at the very least. And I’d have to have gotten all power guys I guess.
12:29
Comment From LarryA
How do team decide who to send to what different fall leagues?
12:30
Eno Sarris: The AFL is really weird. The MLB teams draft ‘positions’ so that the Royals get an OF slot, the Rangers get a C slot and so on. One baseball person told me that if they didn’t do that, every team would send catchers and center fielders and they’d have a hard time building teams.
12:31
Eno Sarris: Otherwise, fall leagues are for a few things. 1) injured players to build innings/plate appearances. 2) position-switchers to work on new position. 3) fast-trackers to get a preview of next level.
12:31
Comment From STiVo
What’s up with Kolten Wong?
12:32
Eno Sarris: Bad debut, possible over-rating, but the pendulum has swung too far. could take full time job and hit .270 with 10/25 type counting numbers. Want to know more about Freese’s future before touting him at all though.
12:32
Comment From Man With A Plan
I’m looking to package Choo + Felix in an OBP dynasty. Any players you’d suggest targeting? Too much/little for McCutchen, Harper, etc?
12:32
Eno Sarris: Not too much, so I’d give it a shot on the elite players first. It’s a great idea.
12:32
Comment From semperty
What do you think it’d take the Cardinals to pry Andrus away from Texas?
12:33
Eno Sarris: I think pitching would do it. Then the Rangers could spend money on offense.
12:33
Comment From pau
lind romero delabar for kinsler?
12:33
Eno Sarris: It’s only one year of Kinsler, but that seems light.
12:33
Comment From The Oriole Bird
What should we expect for Roy Halladay’s free-agent deal this offseason? Which teams will most vigorously pursue him?
12:34
Eno Sarris: Nationals, Dodgers, teams that are veteran and close. He’ll get an incentive-laden one-year deal probably. 1/10 that can be 15 or something. I bet he pitches 75-100 innings.
12:34
Comment From Justin
In the current information environment, is there really such a thing as a “sleeper” anymore?
12:34
Eno Sarris: Always someone undervalued.
12:34
Comment From Regional Lampoon
Who will be the first major free agent signed?
12:34
Eno Sarris: Someone going back to their old team. Could be Cano even.
12:34
Comment From John
My team is full of question marks for keepers… pick two for next year: Nick Swisher, Chris Carter, Chase Utley, Coco Crisp
12:35
Eno Sarris: Utley and Swish, but I’d be shopping Utley hardcore. Degenerative knee condition.
12:35
Comment From Guest
Interesting, as a jays fan, seeing fellow fans complain about Dickey’s performance, when he more than earned his pay on a $/win basis
12:35
Eno Sarris: And pitched through an injury that would have put YET ANOTHER conventional Jays starter on the shelf for a month-plus.
12:35
Comment From Ringtone Composer
What’s the two-sentence scouting report on Masahiro Tanaka?
12:36
Eno Sarris: MehFastball. WickedSplitter.
12:36
Eno Sarris: Oh, that’s two words lol.
12:36
Comment From pogotheostrich
Is Votto still a first rounder? I think so but I have my doubts about that lineup. If he had only 73 RBI this year, what is going to happen without Choo on base all the time?
12:37
Eno Sarris: In batting average leagues, I think not actually. He was worth $15 in our calculations this year! Maybe a little more power changes things, but a first round 1B has to either hit 35ish homers or steal bases or do both. Fawn Goldy Fawn.
12:37
Comment From First Time Poster
Sorry, Eddie Butler, not Billy Butler.
12:37
Eno Sarris: Oh then one of the pitchers. Maybe Heaney just because it’s nice to get a Florida pitcher. Kaz could drop back easily.
12:38
Comment From Mitch
Think Aaron Hicks will turn things around?
12:38
Eno Sarris: Worried about the strikeout rate actually. If he gets it down under 25% and gets the walk rate over 10%, and plays wicked CF D, he can make it happen but might not be a great fantasy asset (more likely in OBP leagues).
12:39
Comment From Miketron
Let’s say Nathan goes to the NL, is Holland the top AL closer?
12:39
Eno Sarris: He is either way, probably. Have to regress Nathan more heavily due to age then you have to regress Holland due to control.
12:40
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
warning on the devESTATEtion: it’s got a really thick black wax coating over the cap and took me like 5 minutes to break into….but it was worth it.
12:40
Eno Sarris: Yeah that was actually tough. My wife gave up.
12:40
Comment From teddy
Ramos, top ten cather next year? Top 8?
12:40
Eno Sarris: One of my favorite targets for next year. No matter what happens with power, he should hit for better average than the .260/18 scrum.
12:40
Comment From Razor
“Starting with an interlude” = “prelude”
12:41
Eno Sarris: prelude to nolude apparently
12:41
Comment From Pads Fan
Other than Cashner, are there any Pads SP you feel have a decent future?
12:41
Eno Sarris: Burch? Gets a lot of whiffs on his fastball. Joe Ross has a nice arm. Erlin can still be a back of rotation guy.
12:42
Comment From Secret Santa
D’Arnaud available?!? my hand is on my forehead… if so it solidifies the notion that the Mets are indeed directionless. His first 100 PAs only tanked his value and the Mets catching is only beaten in barrenness by SS!!! oh god…
12:42
Eno Sarris: No I think they acquired an asset and if they can move him as a top prospect, they like Pawlecki. Also, it’s not the 100 MLB PAs, it’s the added injury that I think is more worrisome.
12:42
Comment From STiVo
Picked up a growler of Best by 11/12/13 a couple weeks ago. Man, that was great!
12:43
Eno Sarris: Enjoy By is great. So so great.
12:43
Comment From skipperxc
Considering joining otto next year. What’s the single most important thing to know heading in that differentiates it from normal 5×5?
12:43
Eno Sarris: You start a normal amount of players, but you own 40. So it’s deep with respect to the waiver wire, but it’s not deep when it comes to starting players. Don’t go crazy on prospects, because your injury replacements will have to come from within, but get some. 5-6 maybe.
12:44
Comment From First Time Poster
What do you think Buchholz will do moving forward? Is the uptick in K-rate? He saw his Sw% decrease by 3% but an uptick in SwSTR%
12:45
Eno Sarris: I’m skeptical. I thought the splitter might mean something, but he used it less often this year. All he did by mix was throw the cutter more and the splitter less. Velocity went down and he was injured. I doubt 170 IP next season, and I doubt any more Ks.
12:45
Comment From t
Will a sour beer ever crack the top 25 on the BeerGraphs leaderboard?
12:45
Eno Sarris: Too many people think of the sour beer face and give it low ratings when they pucker up.
12:45
Comment From Guy
Is it better to buy beer that is in a fridge or out on the shelves? Assume equal lighting for each scenario.
12:46
Eno Sarris: Fridge. Even though light is the worst thing for beer, keeping a beer cold preserves its hops better.
12:46
Comment From Drew
Any general thoughts on Patrick Corbin? I am sensing a big decline. Am I crazy?
12:46
Eno Sarris: Doesn’t have a third pitch! Needs to work on the changeup.
12:46
Comment From Kinanik
The Cubs have been 29th or 30th in BABIP by hitters the last few years, both at home and away. Is there something systematically keeping them low?
12:47
Eno Sarris: I would not have a .300 BABIP in the bigs, and they’ve had some bad players. I think that’s it. What was the Astros’ BABIP? Also, are they a fly ball team?
12:47
Comment From First Time Poster
Can Cashner take another step forward this year? I’m not too familiar with the type of pitcher he is, though I do know he stopped throwing his slider early this year and saw negative results, but once he started throwing it again he began dealing like an ace.
12:48
Eno Sarris: I do actually think so. What happened even more specifically — and I’m going to talk to him about this as soon as I can, hopefully with grip pics — is that he went to a conventional slider and then scrapped that for a KNUCKLE SLIDER. Sorry, the emphasis was mine. More Ks are more exciting, even if he has the injury risk.
12:48
Comment From person hscer
what do you think the R^2 would be for page hits and comments for fangraphs articles? any differences between main, not, roto, community?
12:49
Eno Sarris: over .5, but not super high. If you don’t say anything controversial, sometimes you get a couple ‘good story’ comments and the piece has good hits. You could do a research piece that the harder-core readers read and rabble about.
12:49
Comment From juan pierres mustache
camo unis make defensive shifts more effective, as the hitter can’t tell where the fielders are. new market inefficiency
12:50
Comment From Jake
Gotta love seasonal beer. My girlfriend and I went to Schlafly last weekend, I got an Oktoberfest and she got a Christmas Ale.
12:50
Comment From juan pierres mustache
wax coatings become really easy to get off if you burn them with a candle/lighter, generally (haven’t had devESTATEtion, though)
12:50
Eno Sarris: Difficult to get an interlude together guys.
12:50
Comment From Miketron
Matt Garza needs to go back to the NL right?
12:50
Eno Sarris: yeah but for some reason I’m looking at the Angels.
12:50
Comment From Cool WHIP
Could Phil Hughes have a slight rebound in Minnesota?
12:51
Eno Sarris: Is he there? I do actually think so. I thought he’d go NL. He need to go NL more than Garza.
12:51
Comment From Zach
Do you think Drew Hutchison is in the Blue Jays’ rotation next year?
12:51
Eno Sarris: yeah but I don’t think his upside is mixed league worthy, not yet.
12:51
Comment From LarryA
Lance Berkman: D-U-N?
12:51
Eno Sarris: yeah.
12:51
Comment From LarryA
Re: Fall leagues, but what of Joc Pederson says that he doesnt want to go to venezuela, hed rather go the Dominican. Does he have the choice?
12:52
Eno Sarris: Venezuela has been a bit dangerous, if he tells his team why and is respectful, I think he has a say, if not a choice, if that makes sense.
12:52
Comment From GoGoMrPoPo
Eno, how much do you pay for a choader of Enjoy By in your nape of the way? Just trying to figure out how much I get hosed by living in Brooklyn. Any suggestions for enjoying the bounties of barley and hops without sacrificing my daughter’s college hopes in 2029?
12:52
Eno Sarris: I think it’s a 7.99 or 8.99 type beer.
12:52
Comment From Corky
Who is your favorite prospect Defensively (any position) that hasn’t seen the majors yet? any Simmons-y dudes on the horizon?
12:53
Eno Sarris: Mookie looked pretty good around the bag. Sorry, off the AFL I can only think of those guys and Semien, Seager were not great at SS, Cecchini was disinterested and hyper alternatingly, and Bryant was bad.
12:53
Comment From Guest
What do you expect from Arcia over the next 3 years and how does he compare to Hicks ?
12:55
Eno Sarris: Almost the opposite. Well, he has some contact problems so far, but I have more faith in him to improve that part than Hicks. Defense won’t help him stick really. But probably enough power to make it. Steamer has it about right for me.
12:55
Comment From First Time Poster
How do you go about prospects in a dynasty? Do you just target the top guys knowing most prospects are lottery tickets anyways?
12:56
Eno Sarris: Yeah I try to keep a finger in the pool though. Just try to get prospects a little later than most that have a ton of upside if things go right. Lewis Brinson won’t cost as much as Miguel Sano, for example, but if he can cut his strikeout rate down to the low twenties, he has a ton of power and speed upside. If he doesn’t, let him go, get the next guy.
12:56
Comment From Bruce
If you could only choose one next year- would you go to Spring training or AFL?
12:57
Eno Sarris: There’s a bit of desperation about the AFL — YOUR LAST CHANCE FOR BASEBALL — and spring is all about hope. Also, in spring, at least all the players wear the same team jersey. You won’t see some top prospects in spring that you’ll see in the AFL, but you’ll see most of the guys that are relevant this year. and you’ll have hope squared.
12:57
Comment From First Time Poster
Should I move Moore in a dynasty?
12:58
Eno Sarris: I think so. Velocity already going and control doesn’t seem like it’s his friend. Also, already on DL once.
12:58
Comment From Corky
One move (FA/Trade) the Mariners should make to get the (current) “rebuilding” program going?
12:58
Eno Sarris: They need a pre-peak hitter that plays defense… dunno how to get that going. Maybe trade Iwakuma?
12:59
Comment From First Time Poster
Marco Estrada was incredible in the second half… how much of that pitcher is he?
12:59
Eno Sarris: I think a guy with an 89 mph fastball in Milwaukee has limited upside, but if you look at his yearly totals, I think he could match that. He’ll always give up homers. Love the K, swSTR, and BB numbers though.
12:59
Comment From Sox Fan
What/Where will Middlebrooks be in 2015? I don’t really know what to make of him?
1:00
Eno Sarris: Can’t forget that he’s going to K too much. And the BBs aren’t coming, it looks like. I could see him leaving in a trade actually.
1:00
Comment From Guest
Angels need pitching, Cardinals have it. Bourjos and Aybar an attractive package for St. Louis?
1:01
Eno Sarris: It’s not terrible. Will it get Carlos Martinez? under-reported facet of Martinez’ game: bad platoon splits because he’s a sinker slider guy.
1:01
Comment From Brad
I’m looking to make a run at title in 2015. Which one of these 3 pitchers do you expect to perform the best in ’15? Anibal Sanchez, Homer Bailey or Julio Teheran? I’m leaning towards keeping Teheran. Thanks.
1:02
Eno Sarris: Bailey’s safest for me. DL stint and shoulder surgery and career high IP make Sanchez worrisome for me. Teheran is not so much more risky that you have to take Bailey, but Bailey’s safest imo.
1:02
Comment From First Time Poster
I know keeping pitchers in a keep 5 is a terrible idea, but I have great pitchers for great value, who do I keep? Miller (24th round), Machado (22nd Round), Marte (18th round), Choo (7th), Waino (8th), Scherzer (9th), McCann (10th). I DID have Fernandez in the 18th… but could only keep one in that round and I needed the roster spot during playoffs… I also had Harvey in the 14th… but you know.
1:03
Eno Sarris: well if it’s a keep-by-round, the risk is mitigated somewhat. I think I’d do Miller, Marte and … that’s a cheap Machado… Scherzer.
1:03
Comment From First Time Poster
Could Lucroy be a .300 hitter moving forward?
1:04
Eno Sarris: Catcher BABIP is usually ten-to-fifteen points below the rest of the positions, so I’ll just call him a .285 hitter to be safe.
1:04
Comment From Colin
Cubs are shopping/listening Shark, Beef Castillo, and Castro. Any of those 3 get moved? For pitching, one presumes.
1:04
Eno Sarris: Shark if he doesn’t sign. to Braves, Sawx or Rangers.
1:04
Comment From First Time Poster
Would greatly appreciate a SP ranking: Bailey, Moore, Buchholz, Cueto, Cashner, Cobb, Estrada, Milone, Nova.
1:05
Eno Sarris: Bailey, Cobb, Cueto, Moore, Cashner, Estrada, Buchholz/Nova………. Milone.
1:06
Comment From Adam
Ballast Point Wahoo Wheat. It kept burning my mouth, but I couldn’t stop drinking it…a mystery indeed.
1:06
Comment From LarryA
Ay, thanks STiVo! you just reminded me I only have 5 days left to Enjoy my Enjoy By!
1:06
Comment From Tom
Other IPAs similar to Goose Island’s that I can try? I don’t like the three C hops…..
1:06
Eno Sarris: Go for galaxy and nelson hops then. Alpine’s Nelson. I’ll have to look up what’s in GI to know better though.
1:06
Comment From 2ndHS
What kind of deal do you think Loney will get? Would you rather sign him or Hart?
1:07
Eno Sarris: I think I’d rather have Hart, because he’ll sign for fewer years and has more offensive upside. 3/30 type thing for Loney scares me a bit.
1:07
Comment From Guest
Who spends more time in the majors next season: Alex Meyer, Taijuan Walker?
1:07
Eno Sarris: Walker in from the get-go, Meyer in bigs after super two.
1:07
Comment From SS MeatHammer
Verbal ticks = disfluencies. Learn it, live it, know it.
1:08
Comment From chuck
Hart = Nats
1:08
Comment From Guest
Whats up with the A’s hitting so many fly balls last year? How is this advantageous for them given their stadium?
1:08
Eno Sarris: Because they’re doing the K/power thing.
1:08
Comment From person hscer
I gotta find this burrito and clone it http://www.theonion.com/articles/giant-burrito-to-solve-all-of-area-mans-problems-f,34479/
1:08
Comment From pogotheostrich
% Chapman gets another shot at the rotation?
1:09
Eno Sarris: Apparently the new manager was a pro-SP camp, so that percentage is up. 30%? I think the picher is against it and that is most important.
1:09
Comment From Fred Wilpon
Which starting pitcher FA could actually make sense on the Mets? None of them seem to fit at all
1:11
Eno Sarris: I’d want a younger, possible bounce-back innings eater type. Scott Feldman? Phil Hughes?
1:11
Comment From pogotheostrich
Rosenthal has been named the closer for 2014. I’m thinking only Kimbrel and Chapman are better bets than him for next year at closer.
1:11
Eno Sarris: Holland.
1:11
Comment From person hscer
Venezuela’s fine! Just ask Wilson Ram–actually, don’t ask him.
1:12
Comment From JayT
I was at a work even with my wife and they had bottles of Anchor Steam. It’s a fine beer, and I was enjoying it. Then the bartender accidentally gave me an Anchor barley wine, and I didn’t notice the switch. That first sip was quite the shock.
1:12
Comment From person hscer
BORAS VS JAY Z WHO WILL EMERGE VICTORIOUS http://t.co/y20bJWLcyz
1:13
Eno Sarris: had to do a traditional interlude, just once. #highsocks
1:13
Comment From Seattle Slough
I know nothing about beer but Russian Imperial Stout any good?
1:13
Eno Sarris: It’s a really great style actually. it’s a bit strong, but most russian imperials are up my alley. Old Rasputin is high quality and available.
1:13
Comment From LarryA
Lynn or Shark for next year and the foreseeable future?
1:13
Eno Sarris: Shark. Lynn has problems v LHB.
1:13
Comment From pogotheostrich
Hopefully if the Cardinals move a pitcher it is Lance Lynn. What do you think they could get in return for him?
1:14
Eno Sarris: Maybe if they add a live A-ball arm, they can get the Bourjos/Aybar package.
1:14
Comment From Dave
If Jordy Mercer grades out to a 2.5-3 win player per year, the Pirates are pretty well set at that position, yes?
1:14
Eno Sarris: yeah and I think he can. A little bit bat-first, but they can resign Barmes or another glove-first guy, and I don’t think it’s a problem spot. COF, 1B a little more worrisome.
1:14
Comment From Bill
Who starts the season at SS for St. Louis? Also, who’s the go-to guy at FG for talking wine instead of beer, if there is one?
1:15
Eno Sarris: Stephen Drew? Carson?
1:15
Eno Sarris: I said that just because he’s in France, probably.
1:15
Comment From JayT
I can keep two of Avisail García, Oscar Taveras, and Yordano Ventura. WHich two do you think have the best chance of helping my team next year?
1:15
Eno Sarris: The non Garcia ones. I mean, yeah Garcia will play more than Taveras, but I no likey.
1:15
Comment From Tom
IS Naquin anyting more than a Trevor Crowe with a bit more pop?
1:16
Eno Sarris: Saw him in batting practice and all the hits were soft, nothing hit the track. In the game, he rifled a triple. I was told that he practices hitting to all fields, and in game he can make the most of his balls in play. Defensively stronger than Crowe, too, I think. But definitely no guarantees there.
1:17
Comment From BeerBaseballGeek
What is the best beer with steepest drop off between 1st beer and 2nd beer of the session (I guess it would be called best anti-session beer)?
1:17
Eno Sarris: For me, it’s a barleywine or something like Parabola. Can be amazing for the first one, you’re passed out by the second.
1:17
Comment From Tom
Is Segura a keeper in a keep-5 format? My other option is OF (Puig)
1:18
Eno Sarris: Oh that is tough. My pencil projection for Puig is .265/25/20… Segura might regress to .275/7/35. Probably take the shortstop though.
1:18
Comment From Cool WHIP
Extremely pressing question, Eno: How do you feel about having a sizeable portrait of yourself placed in a prominent area of your house? What would your pose/attire be?
1:18
Eno Sarris: Oh no, couldn’t do it. Unless it was really silly, and then I’d probably get sick of it too.
1:19
Comment From dude
I am adding so little to this chat today. Not even a lude. I’m a failure.
1:19
Eno Sarris: Don’t worry, dude.
1:19
Comment From Secret Santa
Plawecki nowhere near the prospect status of D’Arnaud despite word of “how much they like him….” not to mention that he has just 200 PAs at A+ so it’s another 1.5 yrs till he shows up and the team having to go patchwork behind the dish again. Moving TDA now makes absolutely no sense.
1:21
Eno Sarris: Here’s one thing that strikes me about the idea that it doesn’t make sense. Trading only arms for a young, cost-controlled hitter doesn’t work. And there are a ton of “Just a Guys” that you can get to catch. I don’t think TDA is an offensive star, never have. And if you think he’s injury-prone — which is totally a possibility — you’re talking about a cost-controlled Just a Guy or a market value Just a Guy when the market doesn’t really value meh catchers. So if someone likes him in a trade, and it nets a corner outfielder with pop and patience, heck yeah he’s gone for me.
1:22
Comment From chuck
actually I have no idea what the Nats should do on offense..everyone is sort of tied to a position. I think it’s only sign a loogy, one vet SP like Nolasco, and other bullpen and bench additions.
1:22
Eno Sarris: Most likely. But I think they were only depth away from the postseason last year. Everyone has injuries, the guys the Nats pushed into roles were worse than other teams’.
1:23
Comment From person hscer
if prime Randy Johnson were a closer, what would have been more ridiculous: that he was closing games, or his numbers?
1:23
Comment From David
Anderson Valley is the best brewery in all the land. #amazballs
1:23
Comment From The One
I don’t play fantasy baseball, and I’m not really a beer drinker, which probably explains why I wasn’t sure if La Stella was a player or a beer, but I love your chats.
1:24
Eno Sarris: Love it.
1:24
Comment From David
Name one thing you would do if you were the Nats?
1:24
Eno Sarris: Put me on the field. For one game at least.
1:24
Comment From David
Please rank for next year: Greinke, Sale, Zimmermann, Dickey?
1:24
Eno Sarris: Sale, Greinke, Zimm……. dickey. And I like Dickey.
1:24
Comment From Big Toucan
Rather own Samardzija or Lester in a 6×6 dynasty league that counts QS in addition to the standard 5 catagories.
1:24
Eno Sarris: Shark.
1:24
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Carson also buys wine by the magnum, so he’s probably pretty knowledgeable
1:24
Eno Sarris: yesss
1:24
Comment From Bruce
I need to ask the expert pronouncer (you). is it Rug-ned O-der?
1:25
Eno Sarris: Man I thought it was French like RougeNEH Odour. But I was wrong.
1:25
Comment From Pirates Hurdles
Did you see Hanson in the AFL? Thoughts on the glove?
1:25
Eno Sarris: I saw him a bit. Fast on the field and on the basepaths, but maybe needs to slow down the game a bit, focus on making the play.
1:26
Comment From dbet
are there teams permanently building for the future?
1:26
Eno Sarris: Marlins?
1:26
Comment From person hscer
ahem, Tracy & Lombardozzi & Moore
1:26
Eno Sarris: I can’t tell if this is a pro-depth or anti-depth argument.
1:26
Comment From Colin
Does Bryant make it to the majors sooner if he’s moved to the OF? Better value if they can get him to play good to decent D at 3B though, eh?
1:26
Eno Sarris: And with Baez and Olt, it might happen.
1:27
Comment From person hscer
PRO. They were all horri-bad in 2013.
1:27
Eno Sarris: pro-depth as in those guys argue they had no depth.
1:27
Comment From Goldie Wilson
Is Xander Bogaerts plate discipline for real? He seemed wise beyond years in playoffs and WS but beware small sample sizes.
1:27
Eno Sarris: yes I believe.
1:27
Comment From David
If the nats trade their an arm from their farm who do you like better: Solis or Cole…obviously LilGio is legit.
1:27
Eno Sarris: If you got the arm back, Cole. If you want to trade away, Solis. Solis is only okay for me.
1:28
Comment From Secret Santa
Corner OFers prob less difficult to find than competent catchers so if TDA is on the track of being a productive ML catcher then you roll with that now that he’s here. When is the next Dickey going to come along to turn into the next top catching prospect bc there are plenty of doubts about Plawecki’s likelihood of remaining behind the plate. A year from now if D’Arnaud establishes value while Plawecki does the same and is that much closer to his debut, then entertain moving TDA, not now when leverage is lowest.
1:30
Eno Sarris: It’s all about the deal. I see this many competent catchers on the free agency wire: AJP, McCann, Molina, Pena, Ruiz, Salty, Suzuki. COFs with power: Mike Morse? Marlon Byrd? Grandy, Choo, Cruz.
1:30
Comment From Tom
Segura over Puig? But aren’t SB pretty plentiful and easily replaced? If Segura hits .250….what’s the difference between him and Bonifacio?
1:30
Eno Sarris: Fewer SBs every year.
1:30
Comment From gump
more power than bonifacio too
1:31
Eno Sarris: He’s not a zero.
1:32
Eno Sarris: Puig, I love. He had a 13% swinging strike rate though. Even though he made adjustments in the second half, I think the K% is going up. so the BA is going down. I doubt Segura hits .250 with his contact rate, more than nothing power, and wheelz of steal.
1:32
Comment From Colin
Nick Offerman’s brother is a brewer at Solemn Oath Brewery in Illinois. I just thought you should know that. Also, it’s tasty beer.
1:32
Eno Sarris: Dammit for a second I thought you were talking about Jose Errorman.
1:32
Comment From Secret Santa
and TDA still figures to be a better ML catcher than all of those options over the next 5 yrs, possibly McCann aside, and of course far cheaper. Eno, what happened to your head??
1:33
Eno Sarris: this is what happened: I don’t love TDA like you do, so if we were talking trade and you offered me what you seem to think he’s worth, I’d give him to you and get a guy to Just a Guy for me behind the plate for a couple years.
1:33
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
Jose Errorman was also known around Boston as Jose Awfulman FYI
1:33
Comment From Daniel W
Flew down to SD last weekend for start of SD Beer Week. WAS PLEASED. If you ever go down to Ballast Point, will make gf give you free beer because BASEBALL.
1:33
Eno Sarris: That’s one of my favorite places to go. Love BP homebrew mart. So many great beers.
1:34
Comment From pogotheostrich
Rutledge in Colorado sleeper or not interested?
1:35
Eno Sarris: I’ll buy him in final rounds, maybe. But I want more info in the spring. Since the other guy is so batting-average first, if he has a bad batting average in the spring, that could matter.
1:35
Comment From Brian
Over the past two years it seems the Nats are the lazy journalist pick for acquiring talent(formerly the yankees or redsox) – weather it be “Price or Scherzer or Prince or even Cano” is it because they spent big one offseason and Boras clients tend to go to familar places? Its getting old.
1:35
Eno Sarris: I don’t see a lot of money left to spend in there, I agree.
1:35
Comment From person hscer
I should probably cancel my flight to the Philippines. Can planes land effectively in 190 mph winds? http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/11/07/super-typhoon-haiyan-closes-in-on-philippines-among-strongest-storms-ever/
1:36
Eno Sarris: Yikes.
1:36
Comment From David
Silver Sluggers mean nothing to us–but they do in arbitration. Desmond has now won two and his price will continue to rise. Do the Nats lock him up this winter and what type of deal do you think he gets if so?
1:36
Eno Sarris: Oh man, arbitration is silly. If they had a good shortstop prospect, it might make sense to trade him. Don’t love his defense or plate approach, a little worried about premature aging.
1:37
Comment From nick
what free agent pitchers make the most sense for the Orioles? I’m thinking Feldman is someone they should want back. is it worth it to overpay for Garza? how about Tanaka? I just want some hope that this team will finally make the moves to win.
1:38
Eno Sarris: I think they should be careful. I love Gausman, and they need top of the rotation more than they need an expensive filler. Buy some okay guys and hope Gausman is as awesome as his stuff, no? They have dabbled in the international market, but they’re already at 88million for next year and last year was 92. They really going to jump to 110+?
1:39
Comment From Secret Santa
whoa, I don’t love TDA. What I don’t love even more is trading when value is lowest. Bailing after 100 PAs of TDA is silliness and he’s not going to be more than a throw-in right now until he shows he’s a real MLer cause he’s got 7 minor league campaigns in w/very little to show in the majors thus far…
1:39
Eno Sarris: This is silly. I’m not talking trading him for nothing. I’m saying if he goes in a trade for Tulo, Cargo, Stanton, I’m not holding him back. Not trading him for Aybar and Bourjos.
1:39
Comment From Horseback Rider
Speaking of Mookie Betts earlier…..what are your thoughts on him?
1:40
Eno Sarris: Love love the high ISO combined with more BBs than Ks. Smart kid. I wonder if his height means something for his power upside, but he has wheels and I’ve heard SS and CF mentioned around the scout section.
1:41
Comment From Bruce
Mclouth- 500 ABs of leadoff hitting next year? He was platooned this year some but didnt have crazy splits
1:42
Eno Sarris: I think you have to plan for platooning him. Platoon splits not generally useful one-year samples. Unless you’re talking pitchers and their pitching mix says something about it.
1:43
Comment From Secret Santa
well, but Cargo, Tulo, Stanton aren’t available by all reports. As far as Stanton goes, the Mets would never go all the way on an extension for him anyway so that one is totally moot.
1:44
Eno Sarris: They’re always not available until they’re traded. Stanton under team control until 2016, and that’s a decent window, two years with Harvey back, I’d do it.
1:44
Comment From Bruce
Did Profars Trade value go down or is it that same as it was a year ago?
1:45
Eno Sarris: Has to have gone down some, if just because we know more about him. Sometimes you get more for a guy that hasn’t been in the bigs. Also, he didn’t play shortstop, and he lost a year of eligibilty / team control.
1:45
Eno Sarris: But other than that, I’m still pretty happy about him.
1:45
Comment From Gareth
Hey Eno. I finally made it!
1:45
Eno Sarris: oh no, i have to go!
1:46
Comment From Gareth
According to Wendy Thurms article about payrolls for 2012,13, 14: I noticed The case of the THE ST. LOUIS CARDINALS.

All that young talent. Perennial World series contenders.

Went from 111 to 116 to 76.

WOW.

A 40 million decrease in payroll coupled with a 25 million influx of cash for 2014. Add to that all the in season attendance sellouts PLUS money garnered from every Post season game played PLUS all the team merchandise sold in 2013 (Who wants a Wacha/Adams/Carpenter Jersey? Lots of people that’s who.)

That’s just scary.

1:46
Eno Sarris: Means they could absorb a Tulo contract, or sign someone big… Ellsbury?
1:46
Comment From Gareth
With the Luxury tak thing – Tanaka to the Yankees has to be the move obvious move of the offseason, right?
1:47
Eno Sarris: yeah but Dodgers, maybe even SF, Texas.
1:47
Comment From nick
Cubs or Mets, which team do you think is good first? neither seems absurdly far away to me.
1:48
Eno Sarris: If you could smash them together, this year lol. Would you rather have hitters first and be forced to find pitchers on the market or vice versa? With aging curves for pitchers… and also attrition, not an easy question to answer. Anyway, both are fairly close. A signing and a trade and 2014 Mets with Harvey, Wheeler, Niese… I like that team.
1:49
Comment From Adam
If the Mets are going to try to trade for anyone, it should be Edwin Encarnacion IMO. Coming off the wrist surgery his power could be a concern, but it will lower his trade value. He also still managed to hit for power when the wrist was bothering him last season.
1:49
Eno Sarris: Unfortunately the Mets’ only position of surplus is first base.
1:49
Eno Sarris: Okay!
1:49
Eno Sarris: this time I’m SERIOUS!
1:49
Comment From juan pierres mustache
alas, alack, eno is leaving and will not be back (til, like, next thursday)
1:50
Comment From person hscer
thx eno bye
1:50
Eno Sarris: later guys!



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Graphs: Baseball, Roto, Beer, brats (OK, no graphs for that...yet), repeat. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris.

One Response to “Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 11/7/13”

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  1. Cam Skaugrud says:

    Thoughts on La Stella?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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