Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 1/23/14

11:47
Eno Sarris: I’ll be here at the top of the hour!
12:00
Eno Sarris: Lyrics of the day!

You threw me out the building, the middle of the night
momma tried to tell me something wasn’t right
Now I’ve got a problem, I need to do the math
something goes wrong now you’re gonna get half

12:00
Comment From Spaulding
Why are you so good looking?
12:00
Eno Sarris: Hah. Hopefully it’s not the hair, thinking of a big cut on Friday.
12:00
Comment From YOLO Swag Master
Which baseball player in MLB has the most swag?
12:00
Eno Sarris: Well if swag is car-related… Puig?

12:01
Comment From NatsFan
If Barry Bonds were magically signed by a team for this season, what would his line look like?
12:01
Eno Sarris: .230/.340/.380?
12:01
Comment From Joel Ortiz
Are they really going to go with Ruben Tejada at short stop?
12:01
Eno Sarris: I think he can be a two-win player based on D and patience in the eight hole.
12:01
Comment From NatsFan
Stephen Strasburg signs a contract extension tomorrow, does it look like the Tanaka deal?
12:01
Eno Sarris: I think the injury thing with him keeps the numbers down.
12:02
Comment From Jake
When looking at a pitcher’s single season performance, the first thing I search for is how his BABIP compares to his career numbers. It occurred to me that it’d be easier if there was a stat for how lucky the pitcher was on the year, compared to his career norms for BABIP, LOB%, etc. What other inputs would go into such a stat? Ideally, how would it be structured?
12:02
Eno Sarris: I think you’re looking for SIERA, which uses BB, K, GB rates to estimate what the BABIP and LOB should have been. There are some inter-relations between K and BABIP and LOB (high K% means low BABIP and low LOB).
12:02
Comment From NatsFan
Which living member of the Hall of Fame would do best in MLB TODAY at their current age?
12:02
Eno Sarris: Greg Maddux I bet.
12:03
Comment From Jake
Best FA left on the market, for what team?
12:04
Eno Sarris: Morales, Drew, Cruz, Burnett, Garza, Ubaldo, Maholm… Probably Drew, probably Boston.
12:04
Comment From Clayton
Curious about your education background. Where did you go to college and what was your degree in? When did you learn the heavy math?
12:05
Eno Sarris: I took three years of calculus and some linear algebra in high school in Boston (with Carson at prep school) and never took it again. Took some light statistics at Stanford, graduated with liberal arts degrees. I’m in the liberal arts wing.
12:05
Comment From JEB
Enus! Enus! Enus! Enus!
12:05
Eno Sarris: Oh god it’s followed me all the way from middle school latin class.
12:06
Comment From FrustratedHypocrite
Hey Eno, you won’t be able to read through this during chat but I thought I’d share since it seemed to be interesting when paired with your “Building the Perfect Pitcher” piece re: Gerrit Cole: http://www.whygavs.com/pittsburgh-pirates/january-2014/gerrit-cole-and-curveballs.html
12:06
Eno Sarris: Oh yeah I saw he posted that and I wanted to read it before the chat but no time. I’ll take a look later.
12:06
Comment From Jake
What move are you the most surprised by, good or bad, this offseason?
12:07
Eno Sarris: I think maybe Loney signing with the Rays. I just figured they’d continue finding first basemen. And oh yea, Cano in Seattle was a bit of a shocker.
12:07
Comment From Jack
Nats really interested in Balfour? Isn’t Storen better or at least similar and for less money? Then the idea has to be to trade Storen right? who can they get for Storen..They need a back up catcher and somebody better than Moore for the Bench and LaRoche problem. Thanks Man. also do you like coffee stouts?
12:08
Eno Sarris: I do like coffee stouts but I tend to like them sweet with vanilla or chocolate in there too. As for Balfour/Storen… they don’t seem to love Storen as much as I do. But I guess he could return those kinds of players!
12:08
Comment From Old Joe
If playing in a fantasy league with 10 hitter and 10 pitcher (5 SP and 5 RP) slots does it make sense to spend equally on hitters and pitchers?
12:09
Eno Sarris: I wrote a piece about this last week, but I do think that the fact that pitchers are more volatile year to year and hit the DL more often and for longer means you should spend less on them.
12:09
Comment From NatsFan73
So now that the NYYs have ended the charade about living on a budget, they rather MUST go trade shopping for a productive but expensive 2B/3B currently rostered by a frigne- or non-contender … yes? Someone like Utley would be perfect, though the Phils aren’t going to move him. Brandon Phillips maybe? Anyone else you can think of?
12:10
Eno Sarris: Wouldn’t be surprised if a Phillips deal happens now. They were close to 189 until Tanak so I do think they were trying to build the infield on the cheap. What about Aramis Ramirez??
12:10
Comment From JEB
What are your thoughts on Grady Sizemores return? How do you think he’ll do in 2014? .270/.350 25HR a reasonable projection? Any fantasy value?
12:11
Eno Sarris: His health particulars scared off a team. I say 250 PAs of .250/.330 maybe.
12:11
Comment From Guest
Cashner (16th rounder) or Profar (17th)? Could keep either up to 6 years with progressive round penalties.
12:11
Eno Sarris: Even with Profar’s reduced speed upside, I’ll take the second baseman over the pitcher.
12:11
Comment From Jake
What types of pitchers tend to end up as low FIP high ERA guys?
12:12
Eno Sarris: Hmm, it can’t be a homer problem… someone who consistently gives up bad BABIP or strand rates? Could be someone that is bad out of the stretch.
12:12
Comment From Carl
Rockies get off to slow start do Tulo and Cargo become available? If so, as a Mets fan would it require Syndergaard to land either of them?
12:12
Eno Sarris: Absolutely would require Thor. AS for it happening… there’s a bit of smoke there.
12:12
Comment From Blinger
Hi Eno. Thoughts on Joc Pederson? I know Joc seems blocked at the ML, but… thinking I may take him in my Dev draft, over say, Maikel Franco… Insane? Would you take him over Khris Bryant or Owings?
12:14
Eno Sarris: I’m in a dev draft over at BP with a good list of people and I took Franco three before Pederson (end of second, beginning of third), but Bryant went eighth overall.
12:14
Comment From Jake
How many questions do you have in a queue at any given moment? Say, right now?
12:15
Eno Sarris: I’m looking at 11:57 and I’m maybe 9/10 of the way down to the bottom of the queue… oh boy.
12:15
Comment From Pale Hose
Salazar or Gausman in a dynasty?
12:16
Eno Sarris: Love this question. Both have the great splitter, great velocity. Gausman better history of command. Now the question is, whose next pitch is better? I’ll go with pedigree and the former first round pick in Baltimore, especially since Gaus is probably cheaper right now.
12:16
Comment From SMC
K’plah!
12:16
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
You and Pod really like looking at batted ball distance. How stable is that year to year?
12:17
Eno Sarris: Check out his three part series with Chad Young on the subject. Some interesting observations. It’s not rock solid, but I find it interesting to look at, and there is a link between batted ball distance and expected HR/FB.
12:17
Comment From Prospector
Tanaka will finish up 2014 as a fantasy SP # ___ ?
12:17
Eno Sarris: Two. A younger Hiroki Kuroda.
12:17
Eno Sarris: Good news in my chat box!
12:18
Eno Sarris: Jeff Zimmerman thinks he’s found a usable xBABIP which beats last-year BABIP in predictability …. that’s something we’ve been looking for for a long time…
12:18
Comment From Justin
Hey Eno, If MLB were to expand to 32 teams, where would you suggest adding teams?
12:18
Eno Sarris: Montreal! Vegas!
12:18
Comment From juan pierres mustache
There is a ghost ship full of cannibal rats headed straight for the UK. This is neither a drill nor the plot of Michael Bay’s next movie; it is wholly real. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/mystery-of-the-lyubov-orlova-ghost-ship-full-of-cannibal-rats-could-be-heading-for-british-coast-9080103.html
12:18
Eno Sarris: Wow I thought that was a joke I’m honestly a little scared right now.
12:19
Comment From Pirates Hurdles
In a keep forever dynasty, Liriano for Gausman? I can likely contend now, is Gaus too risky short term, overall?
12:19
Eno Sarris: Liriano scares the crap out of me. Just look at his career!
12:19
Comment From JAL
Welcome back Nyjer Morgan!
12:19
Eno Sarris: Oh he’s got some swag.
12:19
Comment From Justin
I took a tour of Flying Fish Brewery in NJ the other day. Flying Fish extra pale ale is criminally underrated on Beergraphs!
12:19
Eno Sarris: Beer is always at its best straight from the teat.
12:20
Comment From John H.
Expectations of an Kennedy??
12:20
Eno Sarris: I like him better than some of the rankings I’ve seen.
12:20
Comment From juan pierres mustache
are you at all concerned that cutting your hair will lead to a Samson-esque situation in which you lose most of your writing ability?
12:20
Eno Sarris: Yes.
12:20
Comment From Justin
Any suggestions for good local Washington D.C area beers?
12:20
Eno Sarris: DC Brau, but I know there’s others.
12:21
Comment From Rob
Projected line for BJ Upton?
12:21
Eno Sarris: .230/.330 15/20
12:21
Comment From John H.
Utley or Granderson a safer bet??
12:22
Eno Sarris: Utley’s problem is degenerative, so if you’re only talking health, I’ll take the guy that was just beaned twice last year. On talent, Utley.
12:22
Comment From Steven
The Rays have scheduled “a significant baseball announcement” for late this afternoon with Sternberg, Friedman and Maddon on hand . Any guesses what it might be? Thanks, Eno!
12:22
Eno Sarris: Price trade? Myers extension.
12:22
Comment From jim
hi eno, do you ever use r in your ANALysis?
12:22
Eno Sarris: I want to, but might just settle for tableau on the mac.
12:22
Comment From bababouey
Brandon Belt or Ortiz, 2014 only?
12:23
Eno Sarris: Ortiz. .275/18/5 is still a very strong possibility for Belt, as much as I like him and the swing changes he’s made.
12:23
Comment From Fantasy Strategy
Hi Eno…in 12 team leagues where you have 3 OFs, if you had to guess which offensive positions do you think you are most/least likely to find a startable alternative on the waiver wire. I’m assuming OF is one of the most likely kind of like SPs/closers.
12:24
Eno Sarris: yes in three OF leagues, the replacement level outfielder will look really nice.
12:24
Comment From Jake
Does Sierra just assume minus .300 BABIP and 71% LOB, or does it adjust for strikeout guys, flyball guys, etc
12:24
Eno Sarris: It’s Skill-Interactive, so no, it adjusts for those things more than any other ERA estimator.
12:24
Comment From Grack Zeinke
Ubaldo: Cubs or Jays – 4/64M? Garza: Halos, O’s or Braves 3/45M? Santana – M’s or ‘Stros 4/60M?
12:25
Eno Sarris: Ubaldo to the Jays, that number looks okay. Garza to the… Angels? Santana to the Mariners?
12:25
Comment From Hawk
Yes, but your fancy SIERA stats haven’t yet been able to calculate TWTW.
12:25
Comment From Jake
MADDAWG
12:25
Comment From Grack Zeinke
wow, you’re really drinking the Tejada Kool Aid. That’s a shame.
12:25
Eno Sarris: Have you looked at his two good years recently.
12:27
Eno Sarris: “drinking the Tejada Kool Aid” like there’s a bunch of analysts out there that love the kid and have been pushing for this. Like saying he can be a representative shortstop is crazy talk. Like I have to be in the pocket of the team to say that a guy with a career 24% line drive rate and decent glove could be above replacement.
12:27
Comment From LarryA
Can you throw harder than 65mph?
12:27
Eno Sarris: No, I’m terrible at baseball.
12:27
Comment From Dave
How much would you have to get paid to manage a team of your choice for a year? How good of a job would you do?
12:28
Eno Sarris: Based on the fact I couldn’t write and would have to be away from my young son… a good amount. High six figures. I’d bring in some hard-line sabr ideas just to see if they could work over the course of the year. Some players would like me, some would hate me, and I’d probably do a bad job because they wouldn’t respect my place in the game.
12:28
Comment From FrustratedHypocrite
I think Burnett would be a bigger sign for Pittsburgh than Drew for Boston…
12:29
Eno Sarris: I do actually think that Burnett will return, but I don’t get the dance. And yeah, they could use a veteran.
12:29
Comment From annoyed
Do you ever deal with writer’s block?
12:30
Eno Sarris: Rarely. Baseball’s pretty awesome for providing content.
12:30
Comment From Jake
Stanford, very impressive. Can you provide references?
12:30
Eno Sarris: Sure I’ll walk over to campus and see if any of my favorite teachers will provide one.
12:30
Comment From Ceetar
Obligatory Lucas Duda in the outfield question. Will he have learned anything to make him less horrible? Will Granderson/C. Young at the other positions minimize his deficiencies? Is this just a bluff to try to get Juan Lagares to walk a little bit?
12:31
Eno Sarris: God he can’t play in the outfield… I think this is just a way to keep him in the bigs while they try to get the most out of Ike.
12:31
Comment From Prospector
Most surprising offseason move: Fister for a pack of Big League Chew.
12:31
Eno Sarris: Oh yeah, I didn’t get that. I guess they wanted to spread the money around the rest of the team…
12:32
Comment From Jono
I grabbed a Goose Island Barleywine based solely on its BAR rating- what did I do? I’m not sure I liked it. They’re great for getting you warm on a winter night- but was that beer? I liked it by the end, but I think it was just the 15% ABV telling me that- what’s your take on barleywine?
12:32
Eno Sarris: Hate it, for the most part. The only Barleywine I’ve really liked was Hog Heaven from Avery, and most people think that’s just a double IPA. My ABV limit is right around 13%. Woulda bought wine if I wanted wine.
12:33
Comment From Eddie
Draw me a map to the 2015 NL Central Champion Chicago Cubs.
12:35
Eno Sarris: I see it. An ace. They need to get an ace. That pushes the shark down to second spot, and takes the pressure off guys like CJ Edwards. And you can sign a four/five for decent money. Bryant/Almora/Lake in the outfield. Trade Soler for that ace, with other parts — maybe either Starlin or Baez. Olt does power/patience at third. Rizzo emerges this year. Welington is fine.
12:35
Comment From LarryA
AJ Burnett is a FA? isnt he the lowest risk, close to highest reward FA pitcher left.
12:35
Eno Sarris: He also wants to retire.
12:35
Comment From vbarot87
The best part about your article yesterday, IMO, was all the evidence and links you provided. I humbly request more fangraphs articles that are like “review papers” that assemble known knowldedge.
12:36
Eno Sarris: I enjoy doing those. I used to do a column on Getting Blanked like that. Might reprise it for RotoGraphs.
12:36
Comment From Guest
Who wins this fantasy trade: Goldschmidt and Scherzer for Stanton and Grienke?
12:36
Eno Sarris: Goldy side.
12:36
Comment From Jake
Why aren’t straight, cash for players trades more common? Beyond fan outcry at an alleged fire sale, is there any strategic reason?
12:36
Eno Sarris: Probably because the chance at a controllable asset is worth more than a few bucks in the hand.
12:37
Comment From Mike
I understand the thinking most people have with comping Japanese players to other Japanese players, but when real live paid analysts compare Tanaka to Irabu and Igawa, isn’t that just bordering racism? I mean, if someone said not to sign Yasiel Puig because Yuniesky Betancourt is terrible, we’d all laugh because different players are different. So why the double standard w/ Japan?
12:38
Eno Sarris: I think you can look at it less cynically: when we make major league equivalency lines in stats, we use players that played in the same leagues as comparisons. It’s the league that matters. You could talk Colby Lewis in that way. And I do use Hiroki Kuroda, but that’s because they both have low-90s fastballs (kuroda a little less so these days), good control, and a wicked splitter. I prefer to base comps on that sort of thing.
12:38
Comment From TJ
I’ll spare you the intricacies of my league’s draft but what it boils down to is I can keep Matt Cain or let him go and draft Tanaka? They would have same keeper value going forward.
12:39
Eno Sarris: Tanaka may only be Cain in terms of Ks. But the years you’d get probably make it worth it.
12:39
Comment From The Oriole Bird
As an Orioles fan, I kind of love the Yanks’ signing Tanaka: (1) if he’s great, I get to watch him play a lot; (2) if he’s not great, the Yanks just blew the luxury tax, and I get the satisfaction of watching them misallocate their resources.
12:39
Comment From KJ
Do you/Would you share your untappd username? I require more instantaneous Eno beer recommendations.
12:39
Eno Sarris: Believe it’s just enosarris or Eno Sarris. no mystery!
12:39
Comment From Three Fingers Stump
How many times does Cano reach the playoffs over the duration of the Seattle contract?
12:40
Eno Sarris: Maybe once or twice down the road with a new leadership team and plan in place?
12:40
Comment From Guest
Otto LWTS SP Keep or Cuts: Brett Anderson (7), Dan Straily (6), Erasmo Ramirez (5), Garrett Richards (3)
12:40
Eno Sarris: Cut, keep, keep, keep as lotto ticket
12:41
Comment From Grack Zeinke
Do you think the Mets FO is considered difficult to deal with now? Why have they found it so difficult to deal with the roster redundancy they’ve got and not brought in any players to compete at SS with uber-stud Ruben Tejada? It seems the FO is just so anti-incremental steps forward.
12:41
Eno Sarris: I know the Rays’ FO is considered difficult to deal with.
12:41
Comment From RotoLando
How jealous are you of my outfield: Alfonso Soriano, Grady Sizemore, Carlos Beltran. Pretty sweet, right?
12:41
Eno Sarris: LOL
12:41
Comment From Jesse
As far as arbitration goes: don’t most of the denigrations of Arb really just come down to how people value and present stats whether that be the team, player or arbiter?
12:42
Eno Sarris: Yeah, so I think just a simple tweak — a little education for the arbitrators — would do wonders.
12:42
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
You have made me a very K-phobic fantasy player (especially in 5×5) for offense. Thank you. It has made my player valuations almost dead easy: If I like two guys similarly it’s just a matter of who makes more contact.
12:43
Eno Sarris: It’s good for batting average leagues. You have to un-learn it for your OBP leagues though.
12:43
Comment From John
Can you give an example of a player whose batted ball distance correctly predicted a change in power?
12:44
Eno Sarris: I hope I’m summing up the research right, but a large increase in batted ball distance (15+ feet) makes a power surge more believable (more sticky).
12:44
Comment From Cochise
I tried Bourbon county from 09 while brewing yum. When do you suppose Tanaka starts coming off the board in keep leagues?
12:45
Eno Sarris: I had an industry non-keeper draft where he went near 100. But he’ll go higher in keeper leagues, probably somewhere around the fifth or sixth, after the young aces are gone. And BCBS is so much better aged!
12:45
Comment From Pierre
I just dusted off my Expos hat! Who
12:45
Comment From StevePete
That rat thing is terrifying
12:45
Comment From JEB
When are you and Pod gonna get around to talking about the Indians?
12:45
Eno Sarris: Me and Collette? We’re doing it alphabetically by team name!
12:45
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
best bet for very deep OPS league in 2014: Sizemore, Ibanez, Ludwick, Byrd?
12:45
Eno Sarris: Byrd the only every-day player for me, at least from the get-go. And the youngest?
12:46
Comment From Jason
Say, through an entirely unlikely miracle of modern science, Billy Hamilton ends 2014 with a .350 OBP. How many steals does he have?
12:46
Eno Sarris: 85
12:46
Comment From STiVo
re DC area beers… try Atlas Brew Works. Solid new brewery–only available in tasting room (incl. growler fills) and on tap at local restaurants.
12:46
Comment From Bobby
How do you feel about Alex Gordon for $25 in otto points?
12:46
Eno Sarris: good. really good.
12:47
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
best guess on how many PA Marcell Ozuna gets in 2014? Full-time player?
12:47
Eno Sarris: I think he’s full-time! I kinda like him.
12:47
Comment From Gabe
Can the Mets contend (longterm, not in 2014) with Tejada at SS and Davis/Duda at 1B?
12:48
Eno Sarris: If a couple of two-win guys at first and short are their worst regulars, yes.
12:48
Comment From Desmond Doubter
How many 5-win seasons does Ian Desmond have to put up until I believe in his ability?
12:48
Eno Sarris: I feel you. I even own him in an 18-team keeper (OBP!) and I really feel you. He scares me.
12:48
Comment From saskatunes
Ever think about having Fantasy BeerGraphs? $ values based on popularity. Get points for # check ins, weekly rating improvement %age, there must be more
12:49
Eno Sarris: WE just debuted Fantasy Beer this week on BG. You pick a brewery from a couple of tiers and then you get credit for their rookie beers this year.
12:49
Comment From Matt
At this point, how many SPs would have to come off the board in a deep fantasy draft before you’d take Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez? any guess what we can expect if he even pitches?
12:49
Eno Sarris: I’m really only going to take him in reserve rounds.
12:49
Comment From Conrad
Give me a High K reliever that might step forward this year in leverage situations – closer or late innings…Cody Allen?
12:50
Eno Sarris: Sure, but giving young guys saves makes them expensive and the Indians haven’t done it much. There could be a new guy in Seattle, they have lots of arms and like to run through them. Maybe Cishek goes and Ramos or Capps step forward. Sergio Santos?
12:50
Comment From J
What’s your favorite and least favorite part of a draft (and a drought)?
12:51
Eno Sarris: First round is my least favorite. I just see ghosts in every pick. Love love the late rounds. I can pick my guys!

Love love the first sip. The last one.. eh. at least there’s hope for another.

12:51
Comment From Marty
What top 3 prospects are worth drafting late? Addison Russell? Baez? Springer? Buxton? Any of these guys getting decent time this year?
12:53
Eno Sarris: Springer should be up, batting average tbd. The rest, probably not. Top prospects.. Sano if no TJ and you’re talking September. Polanco could be up soonish? It’s only Byrd, after all, and he’s close. Appel will be up at some point. Taillon?
12:53
Comment From Saison Bernice
Thoughts on Cellarmaker, Almanac, and The Rare Barrel as UTL in the brewery fantasy league?
12:53
Eno Sarris: Almanac gets decent distro and their sour porter really was great. They might come up with a nice beer this year, and don’t live in IPAs, which are a tough category.
12:53
Eno Sarris: I JUST ANSWERED MY FIRST FANTASY BEER QUESTION
12:54
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
any crystal ball projections on who signs Rodney? Does he close again?
12:54
Eno Sarris: Rodney signs with O’s, which would make him the favorite?
12:54
Comment From Thought fo That Ass
SABR-minded people talk like TWTW and grit, hustle, determination, etc. don’t exist. But isn’t it more accurate to say this: (1) these are hard to measure; and (2) even if they do exist, it’s likely that the variance among MLBers on these “metrics” would be very small?
12:54
Eno Sarris: yes
12:54
Comment From Marty
You estimated similar slash numbers for BJ Upton and Grady Sizemore…who hasnt played in 2 years. That’s funny.
12:55
Eno Sarris: more PT for the younger one at least
12:55
Comment From Andrew
“I’m the best writer on the internet, that’s what’s gon happen is you throw a sorry question at me like that!” – Eno
12:55
Comment From JT
Stanford? Oh, so you’re a thug? (j/k)
12:55
Comment From Marty
The Jamaican Bobsled team made the Olympics!!
12:55
Eno Sarris: Thank you for a proper lude. Yes, I’m a rude dude and y’a cyan talk pan me boblsed team!
12:55
Comment From Cochise
Are with Dave and Sulli that Cruz ends up a Mariner?
12:56
Eno Sarris: I think they’re just resigned that the worst possible free agent will show up in Seattle. We’ll see. If Cruz does go there, they suddenly have like four iffy 1b/dh types.
12:56
Comment From GSon
Now that the cubs have tied for second place in the Masahiro Tanaka Sweepstakes, will Jeff Samardzija get a new uniform before spring training starts in two plus weeks?
12:57
Eno Sarris: Only reason to trade the Shark is if you get a few ace-upside lotto ticket pitchers back. But yeah, they’re probably closer to trading him now than before.
12:57
Comment From JT
As a craft beer drinker, how do you manage going back to your favorites vs. trying new ones?
12:57
Eno Sarris: I usually try to get new ones. But I’ve tried out most of the beers at my beer store, so now I pick a few greatest hits when there’s nothing new.
12:58
Comment From Guest
Do beer people like New Belgium?
12:58
Eno Sarris: Dunno. Don’t think so. I hate Fat Tire. I’ve liked some of their other stuff. sort of.
12:58
Comment From Dudarino
Do we have any idea what kind of defense and pitch framing D’Arnaud will provide? Might one dream about improvements in the Mets pitching staff from full seasons of Lagares and D’Arnaud in the field and subtractions of Duda and Buck?
12:58
Eno Sarris: He looks like a good framer. I think his defense is good. There will be some ancillary benefits, even if I don’t think he’s going to be an elite bat.
12:59
Comment From Colin
About to go pick up some Hopslam. What’s your thoughts on it?
12:59
Eno Sarris: Someone has tried to send me that beer three times and some postal worker somewhere is drinking it all.
12:59
Comment From Jake
Best way to go about digging into the FIP v. ERaA problem? That is, is there an easy way to see who has the highest ERA-FIP?
12:59
Eno Sarris: ERA-FIP is on our sortable leaderboards!
1:00
Comment From Cochise
Will the short porch in NY hurt Tanaka 1st yr?
1:00
Eno Sarris: I think he’ll give up a homer per nine, yes. Some call his fastball flat, too.
1:00
Comment From Aaron
Jeff Samardzija is sort of a changeup away from your perfect pitcher, right?
1:01
Eno Sarris: The splitter is a changeup, but I’d rather have a guy with great control.
1:01
Comment From Tom
Keep one of the following: Hosmer, Pujols, Puig, Scherzer.
1:01
Eno Sarris: Puig for me. Hosmer’s steal totals should decline. I like Puig to hit at least .270 with 25+, 15+
1:02
Comment From LudeBurger
Not. eno. ugh; weird,
1:02
Comment From JBD
Who’s your #1 prospect in baseball right now?
1:02
Eno Sarris: Taveras. Like his contact rate over Buxton. Bogaerts is there, but I’m unsure if it’ll be more real-life than fantasy greatness.
1:02
Comment From ShawnC
Eno what are your top 5 metrics to determine a hitter’s probability of progression or regression?
1:03
Eno Sarris: K%, GB%, FB%… the bag of tricks is small for hitters. Have been looking at batted ball distance recently. All the other power metrics — ISO, HR/FB, take forever to become reliable.
1:03
Comment From ShawnC
Ike Davis’ dad is difficult to deal with haha
1:03
Comment From Kev
How would you rank Grandal, Zunino and d’Arnaud?
1:04
Eno Sarris: Grandal, TdA, Zunino. Really worried that Zunino’s K% is here to stay. He can’t hit the curve, yes, but his whiff rates on all breaking pitches are super high.
1:04
Comment From Guest
Coming from Toronto, what beers are available and delicious in Haines City, Florida? I see some Cigar City Brewing beverages on the Beergraphs rankings, but can I get them in Haines City??? Thanks Eno!!!
1:04
Eno Sarris: Gotta get Cigar City, it’s the jewel of Florida. Might get some Terrapin from GA down there.
1:05
Comment From Jack
When you’re talking about OBP leagues, would you consider a points league that values a walk as a single to be an OBP league?
1:05
Eno Sarris: Yes.
1:05
Comment From Jake
When did the big books start to embrace Saber philosophies? Before or after the big league clubs? IS there any history of Saber-guys making decent cash handicapping anyone behind the curve?
1:05
Eno Sarris: Great questions. There are people using saber stats to win cash.
1:05
Comment From Grack Zeinke
If the Mets have another mid 70s win season, will things begin to get ugly for the FO? I know there is some degree of built in excuse with Harvey lost for the year but it’ll be 4 yrs with no improvement and with graduations still a mid tier farm system. The media honeymoon will be long gone.
1:06
Eno Sarris: They have at least one manager firing before the FO gets on the chopping block. Remember that Bud was behind the hiring.
1:06
Comment From Eddie
Why trade Soler when Cubs may be able to sign Scherzer as a FA? Would likely cost them cash and a 2nd round DP only.
1:06
Eno Sarris: Eh that was just my plan. I’m a little worried about Soler’s plate discipline making him a possible bust. He’s huge though.
1:06
Comment From JT
I DEMAND MORE INTERLUDE!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!??!?!?
1:06
Comment From Miketron
I think I fear your Pitcher McPitcherson creation. His desire for perfect pitch sequencing is only matched by his desire for MURDER!
1:07
Comment From HELLA COOL
SUP ENO HOWS IT GOING
1:07
Comment From Matt
Great BP articles on understanding SIERA: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=SIERA
1:07
Comment From PaulM
Doesn’t it make sense to nominate popular sleepers early in an auction draft so to inflate their draft cost, leaving the more established players cheaper?
1:09
Eno Sarris: I think so and I wasn’t bowled over by Larry Schechter’s response as to why not to do it. I guess the point is, you might have a plan for your team, with plans a-d. If you throw a guy you don’t want, maybe later it turns out you might have liked him at that price. And he did say that ‘nomination is an advantage’ which is true. You get to decide the player being bid upon. But sometimes, the best move is to throw someone you don’t want.
1:09
Comment From Jake
What kind of guys tend to have good Clutch scores?
1:09
Eno Sarris: Hasn’t really been shown to exist, reliably.
1:09
Comment From Miketron
Any thoughts on Scott Baker? Does his value depend on where he ends up due to his fly ball tendencies?
1:09
Eno Sarris: yes. Would love him in Florida.
1:09
Comment From StevePete
Are there any beer styles that, if a brewery has them, really impress you?
1:10
Eno Sarris: Always look to see if they have saisons and sours.
1:10
Comment From Jake
Getting old must suck.
1:10
Comment From HELLA COOL
WATS UR FAVE BODY PART?
1:10
Comment From Jake
TROUT
1:10
Comment From Grack Zeinke
Have you had that Winter Porridge Brown Nutsac Dry Wheat Germ Molasses Goulash Spaetzle Ale?
1:10
Comment From PaulM
Garza to Brew Crew is being reported.
1:10
Eno Sarris: Deliciously weird! The medicals must have scared everyone off.
1:10
Comment From Sadwick
That ship doesn’t really scare me, it’s really just an empty ship full of rats. No reason to think they’ll carry worse diseases than any other rats found in every major city. Then again if you have a phobia of rats it would be an awful thought. Now, if the ship had been a floating lab for the CDC, then we’d have something.
1:10
Comment From The Oriole Bird
re Rodney–but does he pass his physical with the O’s?
1:11
Eno Sarris: oh god, that thing.
1:11
Comment From Pirates Hurdles
Polanco is behind only Tabata/Snider = less than Byrd
1:11
Eno Sarris: yeah I think he’s a decent bet for production this year. I really like him. And in batting average leagues, he could give power and speed with a better BA and more PA than Springer…
1:11
Comment From Mike
Cashman has said that the yanks are done with big spending this offseason — do the yankees really go to ST with the bullpen/infield they have now?
1:12
Eno Sarris: Bullpens are whatever, they can build one with spare parts and what they have. Kelley, Robertson, Thornton… sure. Second base seems okay if it was KJ and Roberts. But third base, Nunez? yeah the infield is iffy.
1:12
Comment From Jon
Do you like Lawrie over 3B such as Asche, Frazier or Moustakas?
1:13
Eno Sarris: Very much so. Good contact rate, good power, some speed.
1:13
Comment From juan pierres mustache
working on selected brewery scouting reports now, if people have other breweries they want profiled
1:13
Comment From Jake
Steamer and Oliver both put Gardner at ~100 wRC+. That’s harsh, right? WHY ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT BEER AND LUDE AND COOL RUNNINGS INSTEAD OF BASEBALL
1:13
Eno Sarris: shh, we mustn’t upset Jake.
1:14
Comment From Jim
Hey Eno – Who do you think out of Dickey, Morrow and Buehrle has the best bounce-back season? Who out of Happ, Hutchison, Rogers, Redmond and Stroman makes the biggest contribution out of the back end of the rotation?
1:15
Eno Sarris: Dickey. I think being removed from WBC will be good for him. health will allow him to throw the hard knuckler. Morrow… I’ll never trust him again. God I love Stroman. Unreasonably. He might not get the bulkiest chance, but in terms of upside/ elite impact, he’s the name I’m looking at.
1:15
Comment From Brian
Dynasty league…give up Sano, and Teheran or Minor to get Puig. Yay or nay?
1:15
Eno Sarris: I would. Maybe you can get a pitching flier back, a young guy. Wood! lol.
1:15
Comment From HELLA COOL
R U OVERCOMPENSATING FOR MASCULINITY WITH BEER & BASEBALL
1:16
Eno Sarris: I’m not the most masculine guy actually!
1:16
Comment From KB
I have no idea where to draft Jose Abreu in a Keeper League, but I know if he is going to be great I want him with how scarce HR can be. When are you drafting him?
1:16
Eno Sarris: He’s a bit older than young guys, and him and rizzo might both hit .275 with 25+ homers this year. Maybe that’ll help.
1:16
Comment From ShawnC
Hopslam is fantastic!!!
1:16
Comment From juan pierres mustache
I think people ask you about Hopslam just to make you mad now
1:17
Comment From John Winston
Agree about Fat Tire. * barf *
1:17
Comment From JT
“y’a cyan talk pan me boblsed team” Your mayorship!
1:17
Eno Sarris: At least I was born in Jamaica.
1:17
Comment From ShawnC
Do we believe in Jiminez’s…err Jiminez’ errr Jiminezezezez first half or second half from 2013? Wherever he signs…
1:18
Eno Sarris: He added the splitter, and I think that’s been huge. But there was some luck involved in the second half. I’m not hugely excited to sign him. If the Jays sign him, surgery coming.
1:18
Comment From Jono
whats a good way to cleanse your pallet between beers? always disappointed when i try a second style at how muted it is compared to the first
1:18
Eno Sarris: Tasters do it with bread…
1:18
Comment From Ian
What is Longoria’s upside? I’m wondering if Beltre’s age and Wright’s legs push him into consideration after Cabrera’s gone as the next third baseman. He has a high floor.
1:18
Eno Sarris: High floor, but the ceiling seems lower than I thought. .280/30… can he do much better? Beltre seems a better bet for batting average.
1:18
Comment From $
Puig’s .383 BABIP should fall, correct?
1:19
Eno Sarris: yes and his K rate should go up with that swinging strike rate.
1:19
Comment From Neglected postal worker
Answer one of my questions and you’ll get your beer.
1:19
Eno Sarris: The truth comes out.
1:19
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
I like misleading fantasy opponents that are just catching up on the SABR wave w/ FIP and xFIP as appropriate (I am selling you someone who plays in a hitter’s park: xFIP! I am selling you someone who gives up tons of hard contact and has been HR lucky: FIP!) Folks need to learn that these stats especially in-season aren’t really all that predictive vs. core skills like swSTR, velo and batted ball profiles
1:19
Comment From JT Piggyback
Who’s the top defensive infielder coming up (no majors experience yet) who has a legitimate shot at the majors?
1:19
Eno Sarris: Francisco Lindor. Russell is going to make the majors but his defense a bit behind.
1:20
Comment From JBD
Remind me… a metric becomes reliable when the best projection is mid-way between actual performance and the mean. Is that right??
1:20
Eno Sarris: yes. 50% regression to the mean = reliable. amazing!
1:20
Comment From Dudarino
“Bud was behind the hiring.” Of who? Alderson? Collins? Why would that give the Mets’ front office a longer leash?
1:20
Eno Sarris: Alderson. I think it does, because the Wilpons and Selig are BUDDIES.
1:20
Comment From fear the tree
Do you live near the Stanford campus?
1:20
Eno Sarris: Feet.
1:21
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Re: Comping Japanese players. On the BP Podcast, while recounting his experiences at scout school, Ben Lindbergh said that they explicitly instructed them to make comps within race/heritage because it would make it easier for higher ups to imagine a player they had never laid eyes on.
1:21
Eno Sarris: Scouts do fall into it a lot.
1:21
Comment From RotoLando
I’m really interested in doing an auction draft, but my usual leaguemates all have different schedules. Is there any method to doing an auction draft offline?
1:21
Eno Sarris: Blind bids? Everyone submits a list of bids for a list of players?
1:21
Comment From Kris
What happens with Craig Kimbrel? You and Jeff have both said he might not get as much on the trade market as most would expect, yet he might get like ~9mm in arb? Where’s the middle ground for the Braves?
1:22
Eno Sarris: Keep him until he’s an FA and thank him for his services.
1:22
Comment From Guest
Cubs give up Samardjiza, Castro and Schierholtz for Syndergaard, Wheeler and Duda. Thoughts on fairness and probability?
1:22
Eno Sarris: Not the right fit. Shark has two years of eligibility? He needs to go to a contender.
1:22
Comment From JAL
You taking Estrada this year at right price?
1:23
Eno Sarris: yes. good offspeed stuff and control. Fastball is only 90, and he’ll give up homers, but I like him.
1:23
Comment From scatterbrian
I know auction values can be even more volatile and league-dependent in ottoneu points/dynasty leagues, but do you know of any resource that provides any type of guide? I’m experimenting with things like the value of a roster spot and replacement level value, but I’m starting to think this is too league-dependent to be of any value outside my league.
1:23
Eno Sarris: FanGraphs plus has some strategy stuff on that sort of thing this year. We’re working on the calculator.
1:23
Comment From Matt
New Belgium has had a few tasty sours in the Lips of Faith series.
1:23
Eno Sarris: true
1:23
Comment From here goes nothing
DUCKRABBIT
1:23
Comment From E
I wish there was a way to find the most thumbs up and thumbs down comments on these comment boards. There is some great commentary. We need CommentGraphs!
1:24
Comment From GSon
Grant Balfour signs with the Rays..
1:24
Eno Sarris: Hello. Very interesting. I had Bell penciled in for 30 saves. Now… you’d have to think Balfour is in the lead.
1:24
Comment From 1st St, SE
Strasburg is still awesome, right? Brian Kenny’s show “Top 10 Right Now” didn’t have him listed as a top-10 starting pitcher for 2014. Huh-what?
1:25
Eno Sarris: I actually think he could have a monster year this year. Dunno why people denigrate him.
1:25
Comment From Jake
:( Seriously, Gardner tho
1:26
Eno Sarris: I like Gardner, but a lot of his value is glove-related.
1:26
Comment From Fitz
Kipnis or Carpenter this year for a points league?
1:26
Eno Sarris: Without seeing your specific points… I take Kipnis. I think he could be the #1 2B this year. Love love.
1:26
Comment From Drew
Is wRC+ adjusted for players at the top? I feel like many players that I would consider “average” have a below 100. Is that because the few players are above 100 are way above 100?
1:27
Eno Sarris: No, it’s just relative to league average. If you leave pitchers in, the ave wrC+ is 96 or 97.
1:27
Comment From Justin Bieber (Prison)
1 year of Rizzo in the last round, or 2 years of Starling Marte in the 15th?
1:27
Eno Sarris: I love Rizzo, but an extra year of control is big.
1:27
Comment From Jesse
RE Gardner. Projecting a 30 year old with a career wRC of 101 to put a 100 wRC sound pretty much the opposite of harsh!
1:28
Comment From MilwaukeeBeerJays
I’m in drama class ENO! also – who do the Blue Jayz sign to their rotation now that tanaka-san has landed?
1:28
Eno Sarris: Ubaldo, the signs are pointing to Ubaldo I think.
1:28
Comment From Steve
Matt Moore – any reason for optimism? His fastball is fading, his command is somehow getting worse, and then his elbow starts barking. What’s your read on his 2014?
1:28
Eno Sarris: yeah I’m officially worried. The DL thing might be the worst, it predicts more DL in the future.
1:28
Comment From Farting for Science
Have you taken the boy to a baseball game yet? I’m thinking of taking my now-8-month-old to a minor league game this year so we can sit kinda close (and behind the screen!) without breaking the bank accounts.
1:29
Eno Sarris: yeah he’s been to a couple Padres games, where we sat far away and he ran around the concourse and spent about five minutes looking at the game.
1:29
Comment From Chubbs
How DOES Oakland do it?
1:29
Eno Sarris: Depth. High variance FA signings. Churn and burn the arms.
1:29
Comment From NatsFan73
Carlos Gomez does it again in 2014? Or was he a mirage?
1:29
Eno Sarris: Power, speed real. Batting average might fall a bit.
1:29
Comment From gareth
Eno – i made it!
1:29
Eno Sarris: congrats!
1:29
Comment From Northsider
What Ace would you see the Cubs trying to acquire? Price?
1:30
Eno Sarris: That’s the one they keep getting linked to.
1:30
Comment From Bud Wiser
Heady Topper or Zombie Dust?
1:30
Eno Sarris: Zombie for me.
1:30
Comment From gareth
Do you like Maholm, Capuano, baker or Arroyo as a consolation prize for Cleveland?
1:30
Eno Sarris: One of the first two. All seem like injury risks other than Arroyo.
1:30
Comment From Porter
Panda, Lawrie, or Seager – next three years…
1:31
Eno Sarris: Seager for safety, Lawrie for uspide. Panda for first base at the end of it.
1:31
Comment From here goes nothing
Will Jaso get enough innings behind the dish to qualify as a fantasy catcher/will he be worth a look in a deepish league?
1:31
Eno Sarris: He should be a catcher in 2014 based on his 2013 work, but if not, no, I don’t think he gets much catcher work this year. The other guys are better defensively.
1:32
Comment From MSW
When I lived in Colorado I was pretty meh on Fat Tire. Now that I live in New York, all I want is a nice bowl of green chile and a Fat Tire, two things you absolutely cannot get in this great city.
1:32
Comment From Jesse
well anyone who can be sold on just one stat in a fantasy is a suck to taken advantage of anyways.
1:32
Comment From LudeBurger
Go Bears!
1:32
Comment From MSW
4/$52 for Garza. Seems like… a bargain?
1:33
Eno Sarris: Probably because people didn’t like what they saw in his elbow.
1:33
Comment From Guest
which of the Cubs big prospects do you think has the greatest chance to be great in MLB? which one has the greatest chance to bust?
1:33
Eno Sarris: Soler for bust. I think Bryant for best. Real power even if I don’t think he’ll be a 3B.
1:33
Comment From Porter
Are you spelling Erasmo with two “S”s or will be actually be decent this season?
1:34
Eno Sarris: I dunno about him. Big velo bump was part of his helium as prospect, and the erosion has begun. Needs the slider to be better.
1:34
Comment From MSW
I would like to nominate Eno Sarris for the Eno Sarris Leadership Award.
1:34
Comment From HELLA COOL
MMMMOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
1:34
Comment From Brian
where do you stand on tyson ross? I’ve seen a lot of hype on him this year and wondering if you think it’s warranted?
1:34
Eno Sarris: Park and league and velocity make him interesting. Lack of changeup limits his ceiling considerably.
1:35
Comment From scatterbrian
Ross’s mechanics are just awful.
1:35
Eno Sarris: That too
1:35
Eno Sarris: Hey guys! kid’s home sick. Gotta go!
1:35
Eno Sarris: Thanks for chatting!
1:35
Comment From RotoLando
The big Alex Torres/Logan Forsythe trade seems to be going totally ignored today. Why do you people hate America?
1:36
Eno Sarris: We’ve got a piece coming!
1:36
Comment From juan pierres mustache
save the child!
1:36
Comment From Miketron
good luck with that
1:36
Comment From Jake
Thanks for chatting with us


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Graphs: Baseball, Roto, Beer, brats (OK, no graphs for that...yet), repeat. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris.


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John W.
Member
Member
John W.
2 years 5 months ago

Eno! Now that the sad, sad, sad Cubs have lost Tanaka to the Yankees, do they go drunken whoring trying to forget the one that got away. Jiminez maybe?

Chats=Great

Tim Bennett
Guest
Tim Bennett
2 years 5 months ago

What Rd should I target Tyson Ross in? I’m in a 12 team Keeper Lg where we keep up to 8 non rookies and 2 rookie eligible players. For example if we drafted Sonny Gray last year or Oscar Tavares, they can slot into the 25th and 26th this year(I did this). I have Braun/Reyes/Fielder/Bruce/Gio/Verlander/Latos front loaded in Rds 1-7, Profar in the 22nd and Gray/Taveras kept as rookies. I’m targeting Headley in the 8th once I finally get to pick and taking best available arms/bats in the following few Rds. Most of the Top 120 is already kept before we even draft in various Rds which makes for a great draft annually. I’m clearly in a win now mode but I always target upside arms late with the hopes that they pop. They become valuable trading commodities in the Off-season.

JoeM
Guest
JoeM
2 years 5 months ago

new belgium should get points for being an environmentally friendly facility

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