Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 2/27/13

11:47
Eno Sarris: ola, see you soon
12:00
Jesse Reinier Nieuwenhuijzen:
12:00
Eno Sarris: That should wake us all up.
12:00
Comment From John Stamos
Yeah! Baseball chat!
12:00
Eno Sarris: I’m excited too.
12:00
Comment From Smack Breinke
Are you ready for the 90 win Mets?!

12:00
Eno Sarris: In 2016? F yeah.
12:00
Comment From Craig
Eno, saw you had Scherzer ranked 10th in the pitching ranking. I was curious if you could expand on having him that low. Thanks!
12:01
Eno Sarris: My projection (193.7 16 0 225 3.35 1.14) might be a little light in innings, but I haven’t forgotten all the talk that his mechanics might lead to injury. He’s pitched a lot too. And 194 innings is still a lot. Maybe he’d jump up with ten more innings. It’s tight at top other than Kershaw.
12:02
Comment From John Stamos
Cliff Lee + Chris Archer for Prince Fielder in dynasty. Which side?
12:02
Eno Sarris: Fielder. No change-up from Archer yet and Lee claims he wants to retire when the deal is up.
12:02
Comment From bdhudson
re: nfbc leagues. have one starting in an hour, 50 round 5×5 no transactions. any last minute strategy tips?
12:03
Eno Sarris: Draft for balance with no trading. Can’t punt anything. They take pitchers a little sooner than some leagues, but just make sure to get a couple starters in 12-18 range and you’ll be fine.
12:03
Comment From Eddie
First year of a 12 team auction draft keeper. We use linear weights to assign point values. I’m freaking out. Any general draft advice?
12:03
Eno Sarris: Sort by wOBA and FIP in the projections leaderboards and clear your mind of 5×5 analysis.
12:03
Comment From Jake
Sup Eno.
12:03
Eno Sarris: Sup.
12:03
Comment From Guest
ola, ENO. Is it too greedy to ask when draft help will be available–that is to say rankings/auction values?
12:04
Eno Sarris: Rankings up every day. Tomorrow we finish with RP and I’ll have a rankings spreadsheet up. We delaying on auction values for a good reason, we trying very hard to do something nice that works for everyone.
12:04
Comment From DB
What do you think of Brandon Moss? Is he a legit, yearly 30 HR candidate or should we prepare for him to pull a Kevin Maas this season?
12:05
Eno Sarris: Neither. Platoon bat with power, batting average regression coming, but not Maasian regression. He was finally told the right things by his hitting coach (Chili Davis): open up, and sell out for power.
12:05
Comment From Jake
The book claimed platoon stats should be regressed, qute heavily, against league average to get a guy’s true talent level. Should the same be done to get an idea of how much a guy is a GB, FB hitter or pitcher? To what extent?
12:06
Eno Sarris: Haven’t seen that research. And I’ll admit I go out in front of the book on declaring a guy a platoon guy, mostly if I see his team platoon him. I think they know more than I do, and in fantasy I can’t wait until 1000 plate appearances.
12:06
Comment From bdhudson
d’arnaud – if healthy he gets starter-quantity plate appearance, right?
12:06
Eno Sarris: Sure. I’m not sure he’ll be a great fantasy catcher — his strengths might be in framing and defense, with a little patience and representative power.
12:06
Comment From Hobbs
Is the ability to discern pitches and take pitches a skill that many players could acquire if taught, or if stressed as valuable? To be successful in baseball you have to be able to more or less know the strike zone and identify pitch type. Why do we see so few batters with meaningful plate discipline?
12:07
Eno Sarris: Trumbo told me he thought it was innate and only hard work could shave a few percentage points here and there. He’s a hard worker, and I tend to believe him. Look at Starlin Castro trying to be different.
12:07
Comment From Jake
What is Dean Anna’s contract situation? Do the Yankees have team control for six years if he gets called up?
12:07
Eno Sarris: It’s my understanding that they traded for him and do indeed own his rights.
12:07
Comment From Tom
Eno, please reassure me…I am keeping Segura and Puig (+30lbs & Bender’s article yesterday) and am worried about both.nWould you swap any of those for Pujols or Scherzer?
12:08
Eno Sarris: Nope. I’m good with those guys. If Puig steals fewer bags, so be it. Legit power. .275/25/10 seems like a floor to me. And Segura? You can hate on him, but if he hits .275/5/30 (also floor sounding to me), he’s a fine SS.
12:08
Comment From superfan
what do we want!? ENO! when do we want it!? at some point shortly after 12pm EST!!
12:08
Comment From superfan
might need to work on my chants…
12:08
Comment From Guest
Will you be coming out with an overall consensus rankings post?
12:09
Eno Sarris: Next week on that. Me and my rankers are exhausted and I have AL LABR this weekend.
12:09
Comment From Kris
What separates Salazar and Cobb by 19 spots, to you?
12:09
Eno Sarris: Every single one of Salazar’s pitches is better than every single one of Cobb’s pitches, IMO. I like Cobb, but I love Salazar’s stuff, and it comes with good control. All he needs to do is be less predictable.
12:09
Comment From saskatunes
Someone just told me “Lunch” by Maine Beer is the best IPA.. confirm/deny?
12:11
Eno Sarris: Maine is one of I think six bigger breweries that makes 100% above-average beers in the United States. And Lunch is well-rated: http://beergraphs.com/leaderboards/beer/393-lunch/
12:12
Comment From Hobbs
Are you an east coast observer, Eno? Do you know more about Lagares’ fielding ability than we can see from his stat line? Sounds like he has decent range and a strong arm. But the eye tells you if he is Gary Pettis or something more mundane (Choo).
12:12
Eno Sarris: I’m a supporter. I think he gets to the balls he can get to, doesn’t make mistakes, has some athleticism, and yes a killer arm.
12:13
Comment From Jake
In a one game sample size containing a meaningless exhibition game this player who people thought would perform really well/really poorly this season performed really poorly/really well. Can this player’s team’s season be salvaged/Can this player’s team’s season expect to win the world series?
12:13
Eno Sarris: TREVOR BAUER SAT 97
12:13
Comment From Jake
BASEBALL IS BACK!
12:13
Comment From bdhudson
brad miller a good hedge bet with castro/gyorko my starters? apparently i’m playing the upside game in that league
12:13
Eno Sarris: love love Miller
12:13
Comment From Jake
What college major’s offer the most overlap with sabermetric study and analysis?
12:14
Eno Sarris: Surprisingly, my Psych and Econ classes had me in enough stat classes to be up to date.
12:14
Comment From Spanish speaker
Who is “ola?”
12:14
Eno Sarris: German guy I play basketball with.
12:14
Comment From Jake
I could totally kill some nachos right now
12:14
Eno Sarris: Nachocide is a real problem.
12:14
Comment From Guest
Scott Kazmir’s 2014 line?
12:15
Eno Sarris: My column: 140 10 0 137 3.99 1.3
12:15
Comment From JEB
Which position do you think has the most scarcity? SS, 2B? Best to try and fill those spots first, then move on? Which do you think is the deepest, C, OF?
12:15
Eno Sarris: 3b, OF are deep in 12-teamers. C surprisingly bunched near 10-16. 2B drops off wicked hahd.
12:16
Comment From Michael
hr only league. must have hit one home rum last year… breakout candidate not named Khris Davis?
12:16
Eno Sarris: Ike Davis .244 with 32 homers?
12:16
Comment From Graham
I inherited a H2H keeper team. I’ve never played H2H before. 5×5 mixed with TB instead of HR. I need to keep two position players (Votto, Hanley, & Posey) and two pitchers (Kimbrel, Cueto, Buchholz, Romo). Thanks.
12:17
Eno Sarris: You’ll be fine. With depth of catcher, I take Votto and Hanley. I like starters but not Clay, so Cueto and Kimbrel it is.
12:17
Comment From quinceleather
After reading through your rankings, we share similar optimism/pessimism on players. I think you should be warned that this bodes ill for your year ahead finish. Good luck in AZ!
12:17
Comment From Hobbs
I would like to see a study of the number of “toolshed” players drafted, their success rate in reaching the majors, and the perception of their tools once they arrive at the majors. It seems as though “five tool” is a common enough thing to say when drafting, and a very rare thing to see in the majors. Do these types of players fail more than others, is it mostly prospect hype talking, or is it typical of all minor league ball player attrition rates? (Doesn’t need to be mutually exclusive of course).
12:18
Eno Sarris: I can tell you this: the bust rate on players with bad K% is bad, bad BB% is bad, and bad BOTH is atrocious. So Lewis Brinson is a very long shot prospect.
12:18
Comment From USA
Between this chat today and beergraphs releasing beer player pages, how many hours of American productivity lost do you think you’re personally responsible for today?
12:18
Eno Sarris: This is my aim in life, to steal productivity from legitimate enterprises.
12:18
Comment From Foggy
20 team Dynasty points league rebuild, need pitching – G.Cole and Syndergaard enough of a return for Cargo?
12:19
Eno Sarris: I think I’d rather deal for longer shot young guys using lower-rated veterans, just because of injury and bust rates, even on a guy like THOR. Go get guys like Burch Smith, Allen Webster, guys that aren’t being talked about as much and might only cost you fringier veterans.
12:19
Comment From Jake
Holy crap those Tanaka projections. Steamer/Oliver/Fans/ZiPS have 3.5/6.4/3.8/5.1 wins. Who’s closest to the true 2014 number?
12:20
Eno Sarris: I’l take the under on six wins, but I’ll settle around four. Above-average with a risk of being closer to average.
12:20
Comment From Jake
What steamer/ZiPS projection do you personally disagree with?
12:20
Eno Sarris: Steamer’s a bit high right now in terms of run environment and I think they’re working on it.
12:20
Comment From Jim
Why are you so low on Anibal?
12:20
Eno Sarris: Innings.
12:20
Comment From Lily
Are you all aboard this Abreu hype train… whats his 5 categories look like at end???
12:21
Eno Sarris: This is what I have 601 541 71 85 28 0 0.276
12:21
Comment From DC_Coughlin
I noticed steamer loves them some Dan Haren. Do you share the optimism?
12:21
Eno Sarris: Bad stretch, DL time, good stretch in good park. I moved the numbers up a bit from Steamer, 150 IP max for me.
12:22
Comment From Jake
STAMOS
12:22
Comment From DC_Coughlin
This chat needs more Baltimora – Tarzan Boy
12:22
nailofgilead:
12:22
Comment From Guest
Any chance Marcus Semien is starting by June?
12:22
Eno Sarris: This year for sure. If Beckham is good, he’s traded. If he’s not, he’s gone.
12:22
Comment From Chris
Im a otto newb never done auctions before either any tips strategy suggestions? i know kinda vague question im super hungover
12:23
Eno Sarris: Get top-12 starters, because it’s a 12-team league. But platoon guys are valuable because you have 40 roster spots and can move them in daily. Only draft like five prospects and don’t pay more than $5 for any of them.
12:23
Comment From Lily
Any chance that Buxton pushes the envelope and we see him after the All Star break???
12:24
Eno Sarris: Yes actually, people are HYPED. Twins might want to sell some tickets, or think that they can with Buxton.
12:24
Comment From Marty
Is Matt Moore a top 25 SP? His velo and command are trending in the wrong directions. who has been around him in your mocks?
12:24
Eno Sarris: No. 45 in our rankings today and nobody went higher than 39.
12:25
Comment From Compton
What’s the best way to value fantasy draft picks? Just match dollar values to rankings (E.g. Trout is worth 50, so the first overall pick is worth 50, etc) as proxies?
12:25
Eno Sarris: That doesn’t seem terrible. I’ll put a writer on this.
12:25
Comment From Craig
Are you on the Albert Pujols bounce back bandwagon?
12:25
Eno Sarris: Not all the way, like 28 homers, but in terms of playing time? Cautiously optimistic.
12:25
Comment From GSon
Midnight Metallic Blue M-B CL-Class w/ Black Leather Interior or Alabaster White M-B CL-Class with Ash Leather Interior?
12:26
Eno Sarris: White cars make me think Miami Vice for some reason.
12:26
Comment From Hobbs
Nick Franklin tradebait question: Franklin, when a prospect, was ranked by most pundits in the 30s-50s at his highest. He currently can only seem to fetch a return of pitchers in the 80s or 90s. Do these ranks mean anything?
12:26
Eno Sarris: When he was ranked at his highest, people thought he could be a shortstop. Now most people are skeptical. Which is why he’s attainable. Almost a catch-22.
12:26
Comment From J
Could you explain why you have Anibal so low compared to the others in the pitching rankings?
12:27
Eno Sarris: Innings. Labrum survivor that had shoulder issues last year.
12:27
Comment From Guest
Has the luster worn off of Profar already?
12:27
Eno Sarris: I think we do know he won’t steal 30. As far as power and BA are concerned, there’s more to know.
12:27
Comment From Jon
In a H2H league where rosters set daily, do you think it’s important to have a backup for each position, so you can maximize at-bats? I like to carry a lot of SPs and use my bench spots there usually.
12:28
Eno Sarris: I’d rather use em on pitchers. Matchups for them are huge. Maybe one or two bench guys with many eligibilities.
12:28
Comment From Rizzos Mom
I have the option of keeping Castro for Bogaerts, both in the last round, or I can attempt to get a SS in the draft and keep Rizzo in 15 round.
12:28
Eno Sarris: I know he’s your son, but you gotta go with the young shortstop in Boston.
12:29
Comment From GSon
Trevor Bauer’s first spring outing showed off a revamped delivery that looks marvelously smooth and consistent. Early results aside, TORP ceiling for him?
12:29
Eno Sarris: None of his breakers have been above-average by whiff rate to date…
12:29
Eno Sarris: But 94+ might change a lot of that.
12:29
Comment From Smack Breinke
wait is this the all fantasy chat? c’mon…
12:30
Eno Sarris: I’ve answered questions of all kinds, and this is not really a good question. we need QUESTION+
12:30
Comment From Marty
Kipnis is worth a second round pick this year because _______
12:30
Eno Sarris: I don’t believe in second half splits being predictive, he’s pre-peak, and he’s already shown the skills to go 20/25, and he plays a tough position.
12:30
Comment From bdhudson
i wish i was friends with somebody named chili davis.
12:31
Eno Sarris: Me too. My mission this year is to talk to Chili about Jamaica.
12:31
Comment From GSon
Is it always true.. beer snobs like nice cars?
12:32
ScottieDTV:
12:32
Eno Sarris: Dunno. My dad has this car in light blue but is only now learning about good beer.
12:33
Comment From DB
What’s your take an Eric Young? Sneaky stolen base add late in the draft, or the second coming of Rajai Davis? Will he start and hold off Lagares?
12:33
Eno Sarris: As a Met fan I want him as a backup. He’s not a good defender, has no patience or power, and is a one-tooler. Lagares might only be a one-tooler (glove) but he also is younger and has more upside.
12:33
Comment From bdhudson
What happens first: Morales signs/Drew signs/Franklin traded
12:34
Eno Sarris: Morales signs.
12:34
Comment From GSon
Player A makes MLB debut Fall of 2012. Player A gets significant playing time in 2013 and gains starting spot by force of will, skill and superb numbers. Why would this player be tagged as a ‘regression” candidate? (Yan Gomes)
12:34
Eno Sarris: Because he has a long minor league track record with higher K rates. That said, K rates stabilize quicker, so I believe in him more than Navarro.
12:34
Comment From Z
Ok, maybe a dumb question, but why do teams give pre-arb raises (a la the Angels and Trout)? Is the sole purpose to generate goodwill with the superstar?
12:35
Eno Sarris: Well that’s really weird in Trout’s case because they could have given him more money last year and didn’t. So dunno how much good will they got. On other hand, they are now talking a seven-year deal!!!
12:35
Comment From juan pierres mustache
beer prediction: everyone makes IPLs in 2014
12:35
Eno Sarris: The new session IPA, could be.
12:35
Comment From Bo
What do you make of players like BJ Upton, who go from high OBP to high power to nothing?
12:36
Eno Sarris: With him in particular, tinkerer with bad fundamentals in swing but okay eye. With those players in general, three true outcomes doesn’t age that well. If you aren’t great at making contact, that gets worse quickly.
12:37
Comment From Ceetar
I literally just had Lunch last night. It’s very good, but not “the best” I enjoyed Lawson’s Finest Liquid’s AVA more for instance. Heady Topper is comparable. Hopslam and Sucks are at least comparable. 2 people at the bar last night said they enjoyed Maine’s “Another One” better than Lunch.
12:37
Comment From Hobbs
Lost Abbey Cuvee de Tomme, very nice sour. Give it a try.
12:37
Comment From Horace
Junior Lake have a .270/15/20 season in him for 2014?
12:38
Eno Sarris: As much as people are down on him, and as bad as his plate discipline is, I think this is possible. My projections are close 569 502 55 69 12 18 0.268
12:38
Comment From Thufir
How terrible is the early start to the MLB season for fantasy players. Aren’t we a much more important constituency than Australians? Do you think leagues should move up their drafts to accomodate the early start or should they just act as if they aren’t happening and begin the roto season with the traditional April 1 opening day?
12:38
Eno Sarris: And the players aren’t even excited about it.
12:39
Comment From Mrs. Jason Collette
Eno i need you keeper deadline is here. Freeman for a 7th rounder, or Billy ham for a 12th rounder. ( i already have goldy, and two util spots in my league)
12:39
Eno Sarris: Hamilton is such a risk.. Freeman is at least three rounds of value in the bank. Hamilton zero to six rounds. I’d probably take the surer thing, unless the rest of my keepers were stellar.
12:40
Comment From Spencer
Sorry I’m late to the party, but I love the new beer page(s)! Question: is one BAR equal to one WAR? If so we have a lot more Trouts in beer than in ball
12:40
Eno Sarris: There are a lot more beers than baseball players. Check the percentages: http://beergraphs.com/glossary/
12:40
Comment From Marty
At any given time __% of your chatters are stoned.
12:40
Eno Sarris: THEY ARE HARD AT WORK DUDE
12:41
Lindsay McCutcheon:
12:41
Comment From john
Mets interest in Franklin – posturing to bring Drew’s price down? Legit? If he really can’t play short, whats the point?
12:42
Eno Sarris: One wrinkle in the Mets interest is that I’m not sure how much they value defense. Some decisions in past, like playing Duda in the outfield and letting him take fly balls there now, seem to suggest maybe they don’t value it as much as some teams. That might mean Eric Young plays more, and it might mean Franklin can play short for them.
12:42
Comment From DC_Coughlin
Johnny Ola was in The Godfather…
12:42
Comment From kevinthecomic
Watching the Dodgers/Diamondbacks game on TV last night, my wife called Vin Scully annoying. I need to file for divorce, right?
12:43
Comment From jocephus
id sociology with good sabr potential
12:43
Comment From Metsox
You walk into Good Beer in the East Village, with Beergraphs open on your smartphone. What do you do next?
12:44
Comment From The Stranger
Jake – major in a hard science or engineering. Take statistics classes. Critical thinking is the most important skill – you need to see relationships that others miss and ask the right questions, and that’s harder than the math to find the answers. Whatever you do, major in something that gives you options other than baseball analysis – it’s a crowded field.
12:44
Comment From Alex
I need power: keep Justin Upton or Pujols?
12:45
Eno Sarris: If power is your only need, Pujols, but I have them close in 2014 dollars and Upton’s younger.
12:45
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Graham, if you can, trade Posey for an upgrad over Cueto for your pitcher keeper
12:45
Eno Sarris: I agree with this.
12:45
Comment From Jon
I’m looking to draft a catcher from Sal Perez, Ramos, Castro, Mesoraco, Gomes… Anyone you especially love from there in a keeper?
12:46
Eno Sarris: All good, as much as I love Ramos’ power and believe in Castro’s breakout, I might wait for cheapest. Mesoraco safely last though.
12:46
Comment From David
Rendon: .280/.350 15HR. Reasonable?
12:46
Eno Sarris: I have him very close to that. I love him this year.
12:46
Comment From Rex owner
Does Brothers become the full time closer in COL or is Hawkins the man this year? Thanks.
12:47
Eno Sarris: There’s no way in _FILTH COMING OUT MY MOUTH_ that Brothers doesn’t have more saves than Hawkins this year, and probably by the all-star break.
12:47
Comment From Brandon
Who would you rather have both this year and long term? Xander Bogaerts or Jurickson Profar? What type of production you see from both this season and long term potential?
12:47
Eno Sarris: XB closer to sticking at short, more power, better plate discipline. I’ll bet on him.
12:47
Comment From Pauley
Love Love Love me some Burch Smith….am I crazy?
12:47
Eno Sarris: Awesome change-up. Might be seventh on depth chart though.
12:48
Comment From Guest
16 team, 8 player keeper league, top 10 SSs are all kept, where do I look? Brad Miller?
12:48
Eno Sarris: Yes.
12:48
Comment From bdhudson
where’s maxamuz?
12:48
Eno Sarris: I know I’ve had to do all the visual work today.
12:48
Comment From Larry David
What would you trade to get Buxton? How high would you go in a dynasty?
12:48
Eno Sarris: I got him from RJ Anderson for Jayson Werth.
12:48
Comment From KB
Is Belt same player as Hosmer, but cheaper?
12:49
Eno Sarris: Nah, lower ceiling perhaps across the board. Might match in power this year if his adjustments stick.
12:49
Comment From Conrad
How will the catcher situation pan out for the Dodgers?
12:49
Eno Sarris: I don’t see nothing wrong with a little AJ Ellis.
12:49
Comment From Trevor Bauer
How do you see my future?
12:49
Comment From Mike Frown
It’s not baseball season until Trevor Bauer throws back to back walks! Glad he got the season started right on time!
12:49
Eno Sarris: Literally back to back in the Q.
12:49
Comment From Guest
Hey Eno, any chance a PHX-resident can come watch the LABR draft this weekend?!
12:50
Eno Sarris: Huh, have to check with Steve Gardner about that. I know we on XM radio. I think it’s tough to come see us because we in the Arizona Republic building and there are passwords and computers about and security and the like.
12:50
Comment From enosaurus
What do you make of Ian Kinsler this year? He’s on the edge of my keeper list (OBP league, keep 8 forever). Worth bundling him and Wainwright to go after Darvish?
12:51
Eno Sarris: I’ll own Kinsler some this year because I think the hate is going too far. .270/15/15 seems possible to me and that’s zobristian. But sure, I’d do something like that if it was on the table.
12:51
Comment From bdhudson
thoughts on oswaldo arcia?
12:51
Eno Sarris: Power-only guy in a power-suppressing park.
12:51
Comment From Larry David
Does Alex Wood make and stay in the rotation this year? I’ve got to choose between Wood as my 2nd RP or Brad Miller as my backup SS to Tulo.
12:52
Eno Sarris: I think I’d take Miller just because I sorta love him and he could probably get you more than Wood in trade. But in short term, I like Wood. Until something blows up, because wow that delivery.
12:52
Comment From Hobbs
Do you feel Capuano continued to be under-rated right through the signing of his contract?
12:52
Eno Sarris: That’s a cheap contract for a major league average pitcher, yes.
12:53
Comment From Mark
Why are there not more readily available sours? Will they become the new saison/farmhouse and everyone will have them soon?
12:53
Eno Sarris: They are more expensive to make, especially if you barrel age. But Almanac is going nuts on the west coast, Crooked Stave in Denver. Goose Island has the sour sisters everywhere. It’s happening, a bit.
12:53
Comment From Stephen
Could you please explain your thoughts on ranking Mark Trumbo and Martin Prado? You have both ranked higher than your colleagues.
12:54
Eno Sarris: Trumbo, I pushed his projection some. He’s moving from Anaheim to the desert and I think a few homers will help his BA. 628PA 589AB 81R 98RBI 38HR 4SB 0.262BA
12:55
Comment From bdhudson
if buxton comes up, who gets moved?
12:55
Eno Sarris: Presley becomes a backup. He is a backup. Even Hicks might be a backup.
12:55
Eno Sarris: But Willingham will go if he shows anything.
12:55
Comment From Hobbs
Aaron Hicks vs. Rymer Liriano. Who’s a better risk in a prospect league?
12:55
Eno Sarris: Interesting. I’m fairly sure LIriano won’t steal in the bigs. So I’ll go with Hick as low as his stock is right now.
12:56
Comment From Sadwick
I was going to ask a question, but 9 hours of pure spreadsheet manipulation yesterday and a mere 4 hours of sleep have numbed my brain. Thus I am left with the quandry of whether I have a question truly worth asking, or shall I be eternally relegated to those questions unanswered, those forgotten coments sliding past the crowded queue. Such thoughts lend a sombre air to the chat, and a certain smack of Cistullian soliloquy to my commentary.
12:56
Comment From Guest
It’s almost unthinkable to ask but has Bryce Harper somehow become underrated? There was a good article on Grantland yesterday saying that people are already treating him as if he’s old news, which is bizarre.
12:56
Eno Sarris: over/under rated is such a weird thing. In fantasy circles he’s being taken in the first round, and I think that’s over-rating him.
12:56
Comment From david
can you give your overall thoughts on joining ottoneu?
12:57
Eno Sarris: The first year draft is a bear, but I’ve had 100% retention in all my leagues because it’s a fun way to play all year.
12:57
Comment From Guest
which fringe contenders do you see as having the best chance to make the playoffs next year?
12:58
Eno Sarris: I’m interested to see what the Mariners, Blue Jays and Padres do this year.
12:58
Comment From matt
Catch-22 backwards is SS-hctac. SS is the position in Seattle he cannot handle, and C-Tac sounds like SeaTac. DISCUSS
12:58
Comment From Guest
Don’t worry Eno, there are no “legitimate” enterprises, as money is made up and just something abstract we accept to keep society from descending into chaos or returning to hunting and gathering. Have a great day!
12:58
Comment From IPEYYYY
“Eno is the most global of GlaxoSmithKline’s (GSK) gastrointestinal products. The fast-acting effervescent fruit salts, used as an antacid and reliever of bloatedness, was invented in the 1850s by James Crossley Eno (1827-1915). ”
12:58
Eno Sarris: THIS INTERLUDE BROUGHT TO YOU BY BUBBLY BUBBLY BUBBLY ENO
12:58
gskasiachannel:
12:59
Comment From bdhudson
EVERYBODY IS IN AWESOME SHAPE WITH FANTASTIC MECHANICAL TWEAKS DRAFT THEM ALL DRAFT THEM ALL DRAFT THEM ALL
12:59
Comment From Bryce
Tell me why I should believe you over everyone on Gerrit Cole
1:00
Eno Sarris: Cole started using his breaking pitches more in the second half, and his overall strikeout rate doesn’t reflect that. He has three plus pitches by whiff rates, a great team behind him, no innings limit, in a good pitchers park, in the pitcher’s league. My projection is not insane: 198IP 12W 0SV 190K 3.31ERA 1.17WHIP
1:01
Comment From Mark
If 2B has such major drop and OF is so deep is Pedroia a better 3rd keeper than Stanton?
1:01
Eno Sarris: At .295 15/16 I have Pedroia worth more than Stanton.
1:01
Comment From Reddickulous
How do you, like, actually draft? I’m talking about the half hour drinking in front of your computer on a web browser during a live draft, where you have 2min of frantic window-tabbing. I take it a lot of this can be solved by personalized spreadsheets incorporating the data you most value? (Talking about Yahoo leagues, specifically).
1:02
Eno Sarris: Actually I become more intuitive in the draft. Load my rankings, and then sometimes ignore them a bit.
1:02
Comment From Jon
What do you think about Kolten Wong this year?
1:02
Eno Sarris: .270/10/20 in 2/3 play? Platoons with Ellis IMO.
1:02
Comment From juan pierres mustache
like i can afford a nice car what with all this beer i buy
1:02
Eno Sarris: Another problem with liking good beer.
1:02
Comment From jocephus
would buddy guy have the same success if he was named guy buddy?
1:03
Comment From GuyAtWork
I’m a beer snob and bought a Honda Civic last year
1:03
Comment From Friendly Guy
If you could take over as GM of any major leagueteam, which would you choose and why?
1:03
Eno Sarris: Cubs because I love those prospects and I think they need to make some trades and they have some money, which is a great combo. Plus, wrigley. Plus, wrigley has shite beer and I could bring craft to wrigley.
1:04
Comment From Guest
Are MLB players ALLOWED to play fantasy baseball? You hear about NFL players playing fantasy football, and baseball players playing fantasy football, but I wonder if the gambling prohibition is just so strong in baseball that it scares guys off.
1:04
Eno Sarris: You don’t hear about it often, but I’m pretty sure they play it too.
1:04
Comment From Brad
Do you think Ventura gausman and wood break camp as starters?
1:05
Eno Sarris: With their relative upsides, I’m really almost banking Gausman as a starter over Norris. Ventura less clear to me. Wood in at the beginning, IMO, because Floyd and Garcia probably not ready to start anyway.
1:05
Comment From Stephen
What’s your stat line on Khris Davis? You obviously love him by your ranking.
1:05
Eno Sarris: 579PA 508AB 78R 84RBI 24HR 7SB 0.271BA
1:06
Comment From The Stranger
Thoughts on guys with an innings cap (like Salazar) in a H2H league? I downgrade him a lot because he might not be there for the playoffs. Right move?
1:06
Eno Sarris: Yeah you have to, a little bit. But if he falls too far, you can have guys that get you to the playoffs even if they don’t help then.
1:07
Comment From Jay
Following up on Everth Cabrera from last week – When you said his contact % was way too high, is that typically something that regresses to career norms? Didn’t he do it over enough plate appearances last year for it to be meaningful?
1:08
Eno Sarris: Mostly those stabilization points are for in-season analysis. For example, in 2013, after two months, we could believe that Cabrera’s contact rate didn’t need to be fully regressed to his career norms. But when you project going forward, you weight last year 5 times, the year before three times, the year before twice. So you still have to regress his contact rate in projections.
1:08
Comment From Zach
ENOOOOO! Can you help me out? I’ve worked very had in the last year to turn over an aging roster in my keeper league. I don’t know how you feel about balancing age on keeper teams, but I’m now in a position where my oldest hitter is Chris Davis, and two of my pitchers are on the right side of 30 (Samardzija and Bailey) but Hamels isn’t, and with his innings and injury, I’m concerned. But the injury also makes him hard to trade. Would you trade Hamels for someone younger who hasn’t really put it together yet, like Porcello or Matt Moore, and a draft pick, in the name of keeping the whole roster young?
1:08
Eno Sarris: Nah, don’t sell low.
1:08
Comment From Terrible Ted
Someone make a custombobble.com of Eno.
1:08
Comment From bob81
eno “the Jamaican sabre” sarris
1:08
Comment From saskatunes
No one needs an IPL. Just have a normal dang lager or an IPA. It’s like belgian IPAs…. leave the components alone, ya jerks.
1:08
Comment From Fish
Hey Eno, is there a leaderboard somewhere with whiff rate by pitch? I can only find it on player pages
1:09
Eno Sarris: Nope, not here. I’ll put it on my list of things to bug Appelman about. He gets bugged a lot though.
1:09
Comment From Earl
Looking for some cheap-ish power in an AL only keeper, how would rank WMB, Willingham, Hart, Joyce, Morrison
1:10
Eno Sarris: If it’s a keeper, roughly how you have it.
1:10
Comment From dundee
you didn’t answer Thufir’s question re: whether to move up your draft date because of the Australia games.
1:10
Eno Sarris: oh. eh. I have drafts dealing with it in different ways. You can use retroactive stats, doubt it’ll change much.
1:11
Comment From Larry David
Corbin or Anibal?
1:11
Eno Sarris: I say Corbin.
1:11
Comment From worksucks
I’m not stoned but I did put some vodka in my ‘water canteen’ for work
1:11
Comment From bdhudson
I’m at work, at least
1:11
Comment From jocephus
if this chat took place after 5pm, the stoned % would skyrocket
1:11
Comment From bdhudson
How hard are you wishing for Grady Sizemore to be awesome again?
1:11
Eno Sarris: At least hoping a little, I am.
1:12
Comment From Spencer
Oh hell no. That other Spencer in here is gonna have to get out.
1:12
Eno Sarris: FEUD
1:12
Comment From Fantasy
What did you think of Carlos Martinez’ porn stash on Twitter? Hit or miss?
1:12
Eno Sarris: Lincecum’s scared me to the point that I’m afraid to look at upper lips.
1:12
Comment From juan pierres mustache
when people ask “what should i major in for sabermetrics?”, you should probably say classics or fine art. these people will be competing for your job in four years, after all
1:12
Eno Sarris: I think they want a job in baseball. I do not.
1:13
Comment From Stu
Is broken penis the best injury explanation of this off-season?
1:13
Eno Sarris: Right up there with fractured testes (Beltre).
1:13
Comment From JT
in the consensus sp rankings, it looks like you are the only one who has noticed that james shields has declining peripherals across the board. why has no one else noticed this?
1:13
Eno Sarris: Shiny ERAs, consistency I guess. I was surprised, my projection didn’t seem that weird to me. 205 13 0 188 3.61 1.24
1:14
Comment From Chris
Are you buyin Zips has Donaldson barely better than Seager?
1:14
Eno Sarris: I have them separated by 22 points of BA in my projections.
1:15
Comment From saskatunes
Hi Eno, thinking about trying my hand at projections. Just curious what you weigh the most, I think before maybe you said K%?
1:15
Eno Sarris: I actually just use the given projections as a range and try to find the right spot within the given range. I do look at K% a lot for batters and hitters, though.
1:15
Comment From jocephus
do you slide into rooms ala cosmo kramer? i could see you doing that.
1:16
Eno Sarris: No but I do start sentences with “So…” and completely forget to give people context.
1:16
Comment From Matt
Danny Salazar over Homer Bailey, Julio Teheran, Gerrit Cole among others in consensus ranks. I LOVE his potential and ability, but at a certian point, doesn’t pushing him so far up draft boards take out any upside value drafting him might yield?
1:17
Eno Sarris: I hand-”project” each player and then value them. The rankings aren’t ‘best value’ that’s another question.
1:17
Comment From Rated Rookie
How do you post gifs or images and not just the link to such visual detritus?
1:17
Eno Sarris: Thanks to cover it live. poke around, I think you can do it too.
1:17
Comment From Brian
Option of keeping Bailey, Minor or Traveras? Keeper league..I’d say I have an less than 20% of winning
1:18
Eno Sarris: Totally cool not to keep Bailey then, given relative age. If you really have less than 20% chance… Taveras. Makes me nervous because Cards sometimes take a long time with prospects, but I love love his ability and all he needs to do is prove health.
1:18
Comment From Andy5
Dogfish Head is coming back to Milwaukee for the 1st time in 3 years! Other than 90-minute, what is a must-try?
1:18
Eno Sarris: 75 minute is my favorite.
1:19
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Eno, do you have any nicknames? How does Eno “For the benefit of those of you with flash photography” Sarris sound?
1:19
Eno Sarris: Better than Enis the …
1:19
Comment From Terrible Ted
Rice beer agrees with me so I drink Bud. Any good suggestions?
1:19
Eno Sarris: HITACHINO WHITE RICE ALE is great.
1:19
Comment From Adam
Looking through consensus pitcher ranks. Why did you (personally) have Kluber ranked so low?
1:20
Eno Sarris: I showed my projection for him already. Only thing I’m worried about is a long history of bad BABIPS and homer rates. And from watching, I think he loses command within the zone sometimes, so it doesn’t show up in walk rates but it does show up in hit and homer rates.
1:21
Comment From Wembley
Wouldn’t a Morales/Cano/Miller/Seager infield be pretty darn good? combine with Saunders/Lagares (for Franklin)/Hart OF and a more “prospecty” Zunino and thats a decent lineup, right?
1:21
Eno Sarris: I mean, yeah, they’ve made some changes around the house and I like their young pitching.
1:22
Comment From Larry David
Eno I’m from Toronto and I love Steamwhistle. Your thoughts.
1:22
Eno Sarris: Looks like a good beer http://beergraphs.com/leaderboards/beer/4502-steam-whistle-pilsner/ I’d love to have the ‘dirty’ version.
1:22
Comment From Tom
I’m thinking about starting an Eno Chat Fantasy League, you get points based on how often your picks get questions or ludes posted. Anyone interested?
1:23
Comment From person hscer
Adam Dunn is ____ at baseball.
1:23
Eno Sarris: interesting
1:23
Comment From Guest
Is Michael Saunders platoon worthy?
1:23
Eno Sarris: Yes.
1:23
Comment From Gila Monster
Is it possible you underrated Cole? BP’s has him at 4 stars hovering about guys like Bailey,Sanchez,Greinke,Latos. Noting at worst he is a fantasy #2 with top 10 SP upside. Plus he is young with no injury history.
1:24
Eno Sarris: I really don’t feel I pushed him too hard in the projections.
1:24
Comment From Royal Farms
Would Beachy be a good DL stash to start the season if he’s still having shoulder issues?
1:24
Eno Sarris: Ug, it’s getting harder to be interested in stashing him.
1:24
Comment From NickyBob
Should I be selling Torii Hunter now?
1:24
Eno Sarris: Decent time, given his age.
1:24
Comment From Zeke
How good is Carlos Gomez going to be this year? Last year was kind of a breakout season.
1:24
Eno Sarris: Very same but with worse BA.
1:24
Comment From Royal Farms
What are your thoughts on Bret Gardner? Seems like he could be had for a bit below market value in an AL only auction given the perception that the Yanks OF is crowded…
1:25
Eno Sarris: I like him. Good real life player. Above replacement in any league.
1:25
Comment From Bill
Going to Phoenix to watch spring training in a few weeks…any recommendations for good breweries?
1:25
Eno Sarris: PAPAGO
1:25
Comment From Tony
Gregory Polanco just killed a baseball.
1:25
Eno Sarris: POLANCO
1:25
Comment From Sammy
Eno, I’m in a 18-team auction keeper league. I’m going back and forth with either Arenado at $4 or Salazar at $8. Either would retail for the $15-18 range. Where would you go?
1:26
Eno Sarris: Damn. Arenado probably not a top-third guy in your league at his position, but Salazar could be. I have them pretty far apart in value, so I’ll take the pitcher even with the risk.
1:27
Comment From juan pierres mustache
wait what? how does one fracture a testicle.
1:27
Eno Sarris: You know, I don’t actually want to know.
1:27
Comment From jocephus
theory: the rise in craft beers is in direct correlation to the decline of dressing up to a ballgame
1:27
Comment From Mike Frown
Which of these do you foresee: Carlos Santana full time 3B, Santana/Chisenhall 3B platoon, Santana splits 1B/DH/backup C?
1:28
Eno Sarris: Santana 1b/3b/c/dh with maybe 20 games at third and catcher each (if we lucky).
1:28
Comment From person hscer
I’m going to be sad. This might be the first Eno chat I participate in without getting posted :P
1:28
Eno Sarris: noooooooooooo
1:28
Comment From Matt
How do you figure out SPG when I can’t find last years stats on Yahoo…?
1:28
Eno Sarris: Look at your profile, find your leagues through your profile, they still on there.
1:28
Comment From Matt
Fantasy was talking about Martinez’s stash of pornography on his twitter page, not his moustache
1:28
Eno Sarris: oh. wow. missed that.
1:29
Comment From Tom
What’s a good beer I can try, IPA, available in Missouri?
1:30
Comment From E
why cant i stop drafting carl crawford in mock drafts?
1:30
Eno Sarris: Cause he’s real cheap?
1:30
Comment From Bryan
I am very Bullish on Middlebrooks and Rendon becoming lesser tier stars this season. Am I wrong?
1:30
Eno Sarris: I’m with you on Rendon, really liked what he did last year. MB? Maybe. Plate discipline wanting.
1:31
Comment From Dan
Enis the WHAT??? Don’t just leave me hanging? Oh my god!
1:31
Comment From Thirsty
Favorite black IPA?
1:31
Eno Sarris: Wookie Jack?
1:31
Comment From Royal Farms
What “to-be closer” ends up getting the job the soonest?
1:31
Eno Sarris: Brothers. Allen?
1:31
Comment From Dan
Drew Smyly made Freddie Freeman look like Freddie Incarceratedman yesterday. Boom roasted. Am I doing it right?
1:31
Comment From Dr. Claw
Kluber also has excellent mechanics. Some of the the best of any pitcher in baseball. That should lead to more consistency, few homers..etc
1:32
Comment From Tongue Punch the Fart Box
Beachy had elbow issues
1:32
Comment From Bryan
Why is Brian McCann on all of my teams so far?
1:32
Eno Sarris: Cause he’ll be awesome this year, in that park, with some DHing.
1:32
Comment From Guest
Are you going to opening day?
1:33
Eno Sarris: oh wow. I’m on the radio on XM with Chris Liss in like a minute. You reminded me lol. Gotta go!
1:33
Comment From Zach
So, I’m trying to piece it together from these chats, but are you…German, but born in Jamaica? Have you lived in Germany at all? My girlfriend’s from Germany (Munster) and we’re looking at moving over there after we finish grad school in May. Can I get MLBTV abroad? If not, WHAT DO I DO? Also, any recommendations on favorite cities in Germany?
1:33
Eno Sarris: Yes you can get MLBTV, i did in London. I’ve lived in Hamburg, which is the Amsterdam of Germany. Go go go go to Berlin.
1:34
Comment From Bill
Wookie Jack over Dubhe?
1:34
Eno Sarris: oh no. you’re right.
1:34
Eno Sarris: Ok later!!!!!



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Graphs: Baseball, Roto, Beer, brats (OK, no graphs for that...yet), repeat. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris.

One Response to “Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 2/27/13”

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  1. Lily says:

    Are you all aboard this Abreu hype train… whats his 5 categories look like at end???

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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