Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 8/21/14

11:45
Eno Sarris: Be here now. Also, I’ll be here soon.
11:45
manofonetitle:
12:00
Comment From Billy Beane
Is something wrong with Sonny Gray?
12:01
Eno Sarris: Nah. Wasn’t a mid-twos ERA guy. The change has graduated to okay but isn’t great.
12:01
Comment From American League Hustle
Assuming he can remain a full-time regular, prediction on Mookie Betts, both ROS and 2015?
12:01
Eno Sarris: I think he’s probably a .275/7/20 true talent guy right now, but next year I think if he can get out of the bottom of the order, .280+/10/30 is possible.

12:01
Comment From Cronut Burger
Woohoo, looks like C.J. Cron’s coming back this weekend! Will he get regular playing time at DH upon his return?
12:02
Eno Sarris: Shared for handle. Cron’s looking like another Trumbo, which is weird. Had to check the depth chart for the Angels. I think DH is wide open.
12:02
Comment From Bob
Is Matt Harvey a top-10 pitcher next year?
12:03
Eno Sarris: Maybe by the end of the year, but going in, you have to acknowledge the risk: 15% failure rate for Tommy John, plus the 10-15% chance that he pitches to a 3.8 ERA or so. So I’d be more comfortable picking him 7-10 th rounds.
12:03
Comment From Michael
Who would be the biggest threat to make a run in the playoffs: Orioles, Royals, or Mariners
12:04
Eno Sarris: Mariners because they might have the best top-shelf talent, at least when it comes to pitching.
12:04
Comment From Dr. Met
Poor Richards just crumpled and with his knee goes a big piece of both the Angels and my fantasy squads’ playoff aspirations. Will be hard for them to waiver deal anyone since almost every other team can block them correct?
12:04
Eno Sarris: Niese has cleared waivers. Colon is probably going on waivers as we speak.
12:04
Comment From Vic Romano
Over/Under for Joc Pederson PA’s in September = 50. Which side do you bet on?
12:04
Eno Sarris: Under. Croweded outfield.
12:04
Eno Sarris: Croweded.
12:04
Comment From DeGroms Hair
Does Dallas have a good beer scene? Might be moving there
12:05
Eno Sarris: I would say no, but Texas is starting to make some noise. http://www.beergraphs.com/l…
12:06
Comment From Bobby Blownilla
Thanks for the advice on Strasburg last week. With Richards down now I need to fill his spot. Most important cats are QS, WHIP, ERA. Best choices are: Roark, Gio, Liriano, C. Young, Colon, Fiers, W. Chen, Carrasco, H. Alvarez. Suggestions? Streaming is possible. Thanks!
12:07
Eno Sarris: I like Liriano Fiers and Carrasco, but Gio is the one-shot guy. PIck him up and check him out for a while. If you don’t believe, stream the other guys in pitcher’s parks.
12:07
Comment From Tony G.
It seems most every baseball writer has offered up their opinion on Allen Craig in recent days. Given that he was pretty awesome from 2010-2012, why have a fair amount of fantasy writers written him off so easily? Isn’t it possible that the injury is the main reason he’s struggled this season, and that he could return to being very good again once completely healthy next season?
12:07
Eno Sarris: Yes, but injury predicts injury and he’s 31. I’d put him down for .280/15/80 next year, making him useful in all leagues, but not a high pick, considering the risk is obvious.
12:07
Comment From Rod Allen
Eno, big fella, will be in San Diego in a few weeks. Any good breweries or beers to try for a Midwesterner like myself while in town?
12:08
Eno Sarris: All of them. If you can drive to Alpine, do it, but Miramar is closer and you get Societe (MUST), AleSmith (get the Speedway variant), and Green Flash in one swoop. Hess is out there too. Stone Liberty Station is fun, and Modern Times is closest to town and good.
12:08
Comment From Dave
What do you think the Mets should do this offseason to put them in contention for 2015?
12:08
Eno Sarris: Find a bat.
12:08
Comment From Cleon
In a vacuum – Arcia, Garcia*, or Snider rest of the way? Also, I challenge you to take the ice bucket challenge.
12:09
Eno Sarris: Oh man I remember all my cold showers in Jamaica unfondly. Have you done the ice bucket thing because if you haven’t… I’ve been calling Arcia a one-tool guy in a bad park for that tool, but in this group, I take him.
12:09
Comment From Dr. Met
Our medical staff has been suspect for years… not shutting down Mejia now is just another headscratcher isn’t it? Familia reminds me of a younger wilder Kenley and risking Mejia altering his mechanics to compensate for pain is just plain dumb!
12:10
Eno Sarris: He should probably shut down, but there’s some pride here, and they’re probably willing to let him play through some pain so that they know he can do it. I think he’ll get shut down soon.
12:10
Comment From Dave Thomas
Have you had Terrapin’s Guano Loco beer (chilli pepper brownie)? It’s…..unique.
12:10
Eno Sarris: Sounds like it’s not my style. I don’t even like the Habanero Sculpin.
12:10
Comment From Jack
If Benoit goes on DL is it Quakenbush, Thayer or committee?
12:10
Eno Sarris: Quack
12:10
Comment From Northsider
Hey Eno. I’m a bourbon drinker but had my first sour beer this weekend (a Monk’s Café Flemish Sour Ale to be exact). The bartender said it was a good beginner sour, and I really enjoyed it. Any suggestions on the next step on the sour beer trail?
12:11
Eno Sarris: All of them. Generally, they good. If you can pony up, the Goose Island Sour Sisters (Halia, Juliette, etc) are great actually. Really top of the line. I love love Russian River’s sours, but they much harder to find.
12:11
Comment From Waiting for Next Year
Eno my man. I’m building my team around Pitching next year. Limited keeper 11 x 11 league. Kershaw (1st Rd.), Felix (2nd), and Kluber (10th) and Marte (12th) are getting kept. I’m punting HR and RBI. I want to target hitters who don’t K much, walk, get on base, and rack up 1B, 2B, 3B, and SB. Any suggestions (instead of don’t build a team on pitching) on players to target who will be undervalued or stats to look at?
12:13
Eno Sarris: Sounds crazy. I’d look for low strikeout rate guys with some power. Just did a leaderboard for you: http://www.fangraphs.com/le…
12:13
Comment From Tom Jones
Hi Eno. Hope you’ve had a great week so far. I had high hopes for Drew Smyly going into this season, and felt that he scuffled on the most part with the Tigers. Since being traded to the Rays he’s been everything I hoped for and more. So my questions are, can we blame the Tigers shoddy defenders for some of Smyly’s struggles, and could Smyly be a semi-elite pitcher in 2015 with a stellar defense behind him?
12:14
Eno Sarris: D is part of it, park is nicer in the trop, plus his usage has been wonky. That said, the change doesn’t look like it’s a real pitch for him and his velocity is not impressive. So he’s a Richards with 6mph less velocity. I think he’s good but not a fantasy 1/2.
12:14
Comment From Stephen
Eno, how awesome is baseball?
12:14
Eno Sarris: Awesomest.
12:14
Comment From Los
Why is Jacob deGrom better than we thought?
12:15
Eno Sarris: He never had this collection of pitches at this level of refinement in the minor leagues.
12:15
Comment From Guest
Eno, obviously losing Richards is a big blow in the first week of playoffs, do you trust Minor the next 2.5 weeks to at least pick up some of the slack and not destroy my ratios?
12:15
Eno Sarris: Minor’s movement has looked a little bit better over the last few starts, so e’s an okay pickup. But he might be a true talent 3.9/1.25 guy…
12:15
Comment From Ethan
Didja grab a case of Sierra Nevada Beer Camp? I picked one up but haven’t tried any. Looking forward to the Firestone Walker, 3 Floyds and Russian River! Any of them stand out to you?
12:16
Eno Sarris: All of them were good so far. Deadspin didn’t like the hoppy pils, but I liked it very much.
12:16
Comment From Vic Romano
Samardjiza seems to be getting progressively worse as the year goes on. Is he going to get right, or will the A’s regret this trade even more than they already do with Hammel’s disintegration?
12:16
Eno Sarris: His command is in and out. When it’s out, and he can’t get to the split finger, he’s much worse. I bet he has a standout performance at some point that helps people like him more.
12:17
Comment From AC
Better stream option, Norris @ Cubs, Hendricks vs Baltimore, Chris Young @ Boston or Cashner @ Arizona?
12:17
Eno Sarris: Cashner because you won’t know how Wrigley will play until the day of, or an hour before.
12:17
Comment From Beaucoup Bucks
Killer Mike seemed genuinely happy to be on CNN, I just hope people’s only takeaway isn’t “My woman, weed, Polo, & Politics.”
12:17
Comment From Beaucoup Bucks
Also, he’s Killer Mike because he kills mics. I can vouch for that one, he’s great.
12:17
Eno Sarris: Love those guys.
12:17
Comment From Awake in Seattle
The starting SS for the Mariners in 2015 will be: a) Chris Taylor, b) Brad Miller or c) none of the above?
12:17
Eno Sarris: Looks like Taylor right now, I’ll have to admit.
12:18
Comment From Guest
Do you like Montero, Cron or Pagan for util in 4×4?
12:18
Eno Sarris: No steals? Cron.
12:18
Comment From Rod Allen
Any hope for Verlander who thinks he will pitch this weekend?
12:19
Eno Sarris: There’s no reason to have hope for him. His K-BB, velocity, whiff rates are all down. Then again, plenty of people have thrived with 93mph velocity and three pitches. So if he can figure it out, he can be Verlander lite soon. The back of the baseball card is not that great of an argument at times like this, but I’m hearing people ask if he should be picked up off the wire, or if they should trade Fiers for him. In those cases, I’ll take the back of the baseball card.
12:19
Comment From Mike
Garrett Richards :(. Assuming he’s done for the fantasy season, who do you recommend most among Tyson Ross, Odorizzi, Archer and McHugh?
12:19
Eno Sarris: Ross, McHugh.
12:19
Comment From Fortune Teller
Random Prediction Time: The Angels and A’s square off in a pivotal series this weekend. Who you taking to come out on top? 2 out of 3 or a sweep?
12:20
Eno Sarris: A’s two of three.
12:20
Comment From Joe
Think Kluber is the real deal even in the coming years? 12 tm roto dynasty, would you trade Yu and pieces for him and Frazier, Bum and Rendon, or Cueto and Arenado? In 3rd now but also right at even pace for total starts on the year.
12:20
Eno Sarris: Love it for Bum and Rendon, Kluber and Frazier second.
12:20
Comment From Alex Anthopoulos
Does my team still have a chance to make the playoffs in your eyes? If we miss the dance, do I lose my job in the offseason?
12:21
Eno Sarris: You at about 5% last time I checked.
12:21
Eno Sarris: As for your job, it might be on the line soon actually. I’d say some of the developments this year bought you a year.
12:21
Comment From Locke
Who is the odd man out in Boston in September once Jackie Bradley is recalled and Will Middlebrooks if healthy? Is Brock Holt pushed to the bench, or do you expect a reduction in playing time from Nava and/or Betts?
12:21
Eno Sarris: I think JBJ is looking like a fourth outfielder right now.
12:21
Comment From John
There are tons of rumors that the Braves may trade Gattis this offseason to free up room for Bethancourt – what’s your take on the probability of that happening?
12:22
Eno Sarris: Not great, I’d guess. This team is close, and they’d probably rather see more than 54 MLB PA before making the plunge.
12:22
Comment From Looking Ahead to 2015
I’m in an AL-only keeper league. As of now, looks like Sonny Gray and Scott Kazmir will be the 1-2 of my staff. Am I in good shape or should I be looking to upgrade in the offseason?
12:23
Eno Sarris: Upgrade in offseason. Kaz has regression/injury risk.
12:23
Comment From Marty
Favorite Simpsons Ep (and if it’s Homer at the Bat, next fav).
12:24
Eno Sarris: Dumbbell Idemnity. The one where he says “wouldn’t have happened if you’d hailed to the chimps” and Moe gets a girlfriend. Modeled after Double Indemnity, a noir movie I like.
12:24
Comment From Guest
Lester’s gonna go to whoever gives him year six, right?
12:24
B.o.B:
12:24
Comment From Marty
What kind of world are we living in when Freddy Gonzalez / Ned Yost / Lloyd McClendon / Matt Williams / Mike Matheny are all projected to manage in the playoffs? Is the takeaway that managers don’t matter much?
12:24
Eno Sarris: It ain’t football.
12:25
Comment From Turbo Sloth
A while back you touted Austin Jackson as a potential breakout guy on SATB. But he’s been so bad and worse in SEA, and projections are sour on him. What happened here?
12:25
Eno Sarris: The leg kick never produced the power that his batted ball mix said he could show, which is really something he’s teased us with forever.
12:25
Comment From Kris
You’d trade MadBum & Rendon for Darvish???
12:26
Eno Sarris: I’d take Madbum and Rendon for Darvish, yes. Darvish has higher injury risk than Madbum.
12:26
Comment From The Oriole Bird
There must be transaction costs hidden from the public for trades in pro sports, right? If not, they’d seemingly happen much more often–because there are lots of “this trade makes so much sense” out there that have no shot of getting done. Reputation issues (not wanting to look bad or lose job), endowment effect (overvaluing what one owns relative to a neutral observer), and asymmetric information (worrying the other party might know something bad about their players that you don’t know) might also play a role. Agree?
12:27
Eno Sarris: Also lack of past history with the other GM (networking effect?) and then hidden transaction costs of another sort: the player making noise that he wants something picked up or dropped off his contract (the primadonna effect?).
12:27
Comment From Sadwick
My first chat back from Chicago. I managed to hit every brewery you recommended except Pipeworks, and the friend I was staying with was a 10 minute walk from the Half Acre taproom. So much good beer, it makes me sad coming back to Knoxville….
12:27
Eno Sarris: Don’t go back to KNOXVILLE, Don’t go back to KNOXVILLE
12:28
Comment From Minnie Minnie Moe
Oswaldo Arcia spits on pitcher park stats.
12:28
Comment From Kris
Ya, I was saying I feel like Bumgarner + Rendon would be too much for Darvish. Also, throw in Wicked Weed for the sours, if ever in NC!! So good
12:28
Comment From The Oriole Bird
Eno, what year did you graduate from Stanford? I visited senior year high school, and stayed across dorm hall from Chelsea Clinton. No joke, her roommate was a dead-on ringer for her. Secret Service got that woman into the school, right? Ha.
12:28
Eno Sarris: Uh I was a floor down from you playing punk rock and phish loudly. We traded hair tips.
12:29
Comment From Reginald Denton III
Or Rockville.
12:29
Comment From CSB
Do we expect Alex Guerrero to do something interesting in September (and beyond)? He’s slashing pretty neat in AAA, but not walking so much.
12:29
Eno Sarris: he’s 29, he should be putting up neat stats in the minors. He’s no 2B, so now he’s hoping to be OF depth after a trade next year, or starting 3B if they let Uribe go.
12:29
Comment From Shawn
Would Alex Gordon/Jason Heyward represent the best examples of players who are much more valuable in reality than fantasy? Has there ever been anything done to determine this, or is it mainly the players who derive alot of value from their defense?
12:29
Eno Sarris: It’s just that. Andrelton.
12:29
Comment From GSon
Ultimately, the Indians have four role players in Jose Ramirez, Zach Walters, Mike Aviles and Ryan Raburn. Giving no credence to financials & knowing Raburn is on the DL, who plays where for the next 37 games?
12:30
Eno Sarris: That Walters has been DHing more than SSing says he’s an LF/DH. Aviles and Ramirez might fake SS the rest of the way.
12:30
Comment From Boyz in the Hood
What are the chances that Jon Singleton becomes Goldy 3.0 or Rizzo 2.0? High K power first baseman who reigns in his k rate leaving us that sweet sweet power pop.
12:31
Eno Sarris: He made a major adjustment, shortened his swing, and got his August K% down to… 30.3%. I don’t buy it.
12:31
Comment From Exar Kun
It makes me happy that Gerrit Cole is back. Does it make you happy Eno?
12:31
Eno Sarris: yes!
12:31
Comment From Et Tu, Brute?
Thoughts on selling high on Papi after this year?
12:31
Eno Sarris: At some point, he’s going to have to implode.
12:31
Comment From Mario Impemba
Rod, we have a game in less than an hour. What are you doing here?
12:31
Comment From Et Tu, Brute?
PAPA NEEDS LUDES
12:32
Comment From Sycophancy
Are you and Malcolm Gladwell in the same basic, uh, camp–other than the Canadian thing? And by thought I mean you’re both smart, good writers, and have some crazy hair.
12:32
Eno Sarris: Shaky finish to the lude. All we have in common is hair, really.
12:32
Comment From Stephen
If your hair gave you a superpower, what would you lose if you got it cut?
12:33
Comment From The Oriole Bird
Where does Michael Brantley’s true talent lie? I realize he’s playing over his head; but what could you legitimately hope for fantasy-wise (OBP/SLG/R/RBI/SB)?
12:34
Eno Sarris: I think he’ll take a step back in slugging and be a .280/.350+ guy with 15/15 type stats next year.
12:34
Comment From Bobert
Please rank for future fantasy value: Steven Souza, Michael Taylor, Rymer Liriano. Any potential stars there? Thanks!
12:34
Eno Sarris: I don’t think so. Contact issues galore. I’d take the shot on Liriano I guess.
12:34
Comment From Dean "Rusty" Koontz
Would you rather have Zach Walters or Chris Taylor ROS?
12:34
Eno Sarris: Taylor.
12:34
Comment From Reginald Denton III
Was at Coors last week for Reds/Rockies. Ludwick hits homer that goes right over my head, guy behind me catches it. Usher walks over a couple minutes later and tells him he’ll get tossed out if he throws it back. Is that true at every park? How about Wrigley?
12:35
Eno Sarris: Wow. Can’t be true at Wrigley. Haven’t heard that before.
12:35
Comment From Greg
Kyle Zimmer finally threw a few pitches in a real live baseball game! Is he locked into the Royals’ rotation by ASB 2015, or are we looking at another year of building up innings in the minors?
12:35
Eno Sarris: He won’t have any innings next year. Maybe a little bit in the second half.
12:35
Comment From Et Tu, Brute?
Eno! Thoughts on Rougned Odor’s hit tool? Is it reasonable to expect his avg. year to resemble 2014 Scooter Gennett?
12:36
Eno Sarris: Reasonable actually. Though Scooter’s been showing more power than we thought he had.
12:36
Comment From Zach
If Mejia & Benoit go on DL do you like Quack or Familia?
12:36
Eno Sarris: Familia then Quack, but I like both.
12:36
Comment From Matt
Kyler Zimmer shoulder is going to fall off by next year, don’t worry.
12:36
Comment From jocephus

this is what happens when you try to cut enos hair

12:36
Comment From thomas
is deGrom awesome or jawesome?
12:36
Eno Sarris: deGroovy
12:36
Comment From Rated Rookie
Is Danny Salazar sticking in the CLE rotation?
12:36
Eno Sarris: Yes
12:36
Comment From Rated Rookie
The Alex Wood-Gerrit Cole matchup was a joy to watch. How do you see those two performing going forward?
12:37
Eno Sarris: Before the year, I would have said something about health separating them, but since they both have question marks now, I’ll take Cole’s velocity.
12:37
Comment From jocephus
that guy who posted the long “enoooo” has messed up the chat box size parameters and it annoys me
12:37
Eno Sarris: Is gone.
12:37
Comment From Jim
Alex Guerrero is 27 you JERK.
12:37
Eno Sarris: I AM a jerk.
12:37
Comment From numbnucks
Isn’t it too soon to write Walters off as a role player? His bat has been compared to Morse and he has a lot of offensive versatility (great for fantasy in which he’s SS)
12:38
Eno Sarris: Well, I mean, he could have a career like Morse’s!
12:38
Comment From Turbo Sloth
Whoa just realized SATB (Sleeper and the bust) is the same acronym as (Soprano Alto Tenor Bass)
12:38
Eno Sarris: Not on purpose.
12:38
Comment From Drew Pomeranz
Will I get a shot this year or next at a starting gig?
12:38
Eno Sarris: I think he’ll step in after a fire sale if they win this year.
12:38
Comment From Billy
My playoff spot is sown up. Still have 2.5 weeks before I play a meaningful match. Pick 2 who have best chance of surprising help in 2.5 weeks: – Verlander, Bailey, Minor, Wacha, Fiers, Pineda.
12:38
Eno Sarris: Verlander Bailey. Do it.
12:39
Comment From CuriousGeorge
my cousin insists that the orioles will win the world series. and they have a great pitching staff. literally dont even know where to begin. am i crazy to say the angels and nationals are way better?
12:39
Eno Sarris: Not crazy. It’s not crazy to say they’ll win the world series, not a bunch crazier than the other playoff teams. But that staff is underwhelming actually.
12:39
Comment From Byron Bucks Ton
Is Kiermaier going to continue turning back into a pumpkin? Is Pearce’s great season more sustainable ROS?
12:40
Eno Sarris: I’d bet on Kiermaier before Pearce. Plus D will keep him in the mix.
12:40
Comment From Byron Bucks Ton
If I’m playing for this year in an AL-only keeper and nobody’s offering anything of value for Kipnis despite an $20 contract in a $250 AL-only keeper, should I hold him?
12:40
Eno Sarris: Yes, he can still help you this year.
12:40
Comment From Kris
Jake McGee was dropped. Drop Mejia for him?
12:40
Eno Sarris: You know what? Yes. I think Mejia headed towards a shutdown.
12:40
Comment From Vic Romano
I’m not expecting much out of Xander the rest of this year, but he’s still a good keeper pick for the future, right?
12:41
Eno Sarris: May be a better in real life guy, but I don’t think he’s far away from .280/20/5
12:41
Comment From Jolly Roger
Just saw that Dalton Pompey was promoted to AAA. Are they getting him ready for a regular role in 2015?
12:42
Eno Sarris: Love that guy. How am I going to be an optimist about this? I’ll say he gets MLB time next year (not full year) and hits for a .260ish average with good speed and some pop.
12:42
Comment From JCA,CA
what are your thoughts on Yelich? what is his ceiling?
12:42
Eno Sarris: .280/25/25? I think the power is coming.
12:43
Comment From Rated Rookie

Carlos Rodon? Lucas Giolito?

12:43
Eno Sarris: I want to see the Rodon change before I put him above Giolito, I think.
12:44
Comment From Playoff bound
Is Stroman worth holding onto for the next three weeks or are we going to see him melt down more as he reaches an innings limit? Thanks.
12:44
Eno Sarris: If the Blue Jays fall out of it, I think he could get shut down. Most teams might limit him to around 150-160 this year.
12:44
Comment From CommentGraphs
Can Jose Abreu get better? Or is this just about his peak?
12:45
Eno Sarris: Age says he’s very near his peak.
12:45
Eno Sarris: But there could be some adjustment to the league benefits. Obviously he’s made some changes this year.
12:45
Comment From Corey
Should I sell Belt cheap for playoffs, or hold onto him due to his future potential?
12:46
Eno Sarris: I think he’s a sellable piece. If he hits 25 homers, it’s with a .250 average. Or he hits .270 with 18 homers. I don’t think we’re going to see .280 and 30.
12:46
Comment From Matt
I tried to push my chips in my deep dynasty league. Tulo and Anderson out RoS. Bailey,Lawrie,Beckett are all on the DL. What should I do?
12:48
Eno Sarris: Ouch. Ouch. if you’re really screwed, see if someone will bet on Lawrie, Becktt or Bailey coming back. But only get someone back that will be an asset for you next year. You’re still close. Holding is fine, too, and hoping for better health next year (with some work on your depth).
12:48
Comment From Corey
Do you believe in Scherzer as an ace? Even if he moves to a different team next year?
12:48
Eno Sarris: I do, but I don’t think we should forget about the fact that he was once universally accepted as an injury risk.
12:48
Luis Soares:
12:48
Comment From Guest
Are you the mayor of Gripadelphia?
12:48
Eno Sarris: #grips
12:49
Comment From Jon Bon
I’ve heard many many say that Gardner has been the Yankees’ MVP this season. Is that why they’re not going to make the playoffs?
12:49
Eno Sarris: No, you could have Granderson as your MVP and be good if you had a better pitching staff or better depth.
12:50
Comment From Joemomma
Drop crappy Rios or crappy Lind for crappy relievers?
12:50
Eno Sarris: Lind’s a platoon bat with inconsistent power, so I could see that.
12:50
Comment From Chris
Kluber and Crisp to the 1st place team for Cargo, Jake Thompson and Michael Taylor in a dynasty league. Not enough back for Kluber?
12:50
Eno Sarris: Cargo is good.
12:50
Comment From Guest
How many new grips have you tried out in your backyard after interviewing players on them? Any success using them?
12:51
Eno Sarris: I’m working on my knuckle curve. But I can’t throw very hard to my two year old.
12:51
Comment From GSon
Since the All Star Break, Kluber has pitched 47.2 innings over six starts, almost 8 innings per start, with a 0.76 ERA and a 4-0 record.. Leader in the clubhouse for the AL Cy or does Felix’s 2-2 record in 41 IP, 1.53 ERA (double double) still get the love?
12:51
Eno Sarris: Felix still out in front.
12:51
Comment From Drew
De Grom, Wood or Ross to replace Richards ROS?
12:52
Eno Sarris: deGrom has 185 IP, which might be more than Wood. Wood only threw 140 last year and could be capped around 170.
12:52
Comment From Art Vandelay
to Greg: Who throws a homer back a couple minutes later?
12:53
Eno Sarris: Yeah but still is it policy to throw guys out that throw the ball back right after?
12:53
Comment From Vic Romano
Jorge Soler’s production ROS (after he gets called up)?
12:53
Eno Sarris: Given that his strikeout rate has jumped at new levels, he may not rock it right away this year. But I do like his improvements.
12:53
Comment From Sadwick
I think if you cut Eno’s hair he would suddenly lose his taste for beer and drink nothing but wine until it grew back.
12:54
Comment From Rick Lancellotti
How do you project Joe Kelly ROS for Boston? Should we expect more starts like his last one? Pitchers with dual SP/RP are important for roster tweaking in a CBS league I play in otherwise I wouldn’t be interested.
12:55
Eno Sarris: They’re trying to get him to throw his secondary stuff more, because those pitches are good. Unfortunately, he can’t command them, so it’ll be interesting to see what happens. Hard to throw him until he shows he can K guys with that stuff and command it well.
12:55
Comment From numbnucks
Do you see Pearce playing every day down the stretch? Will he continue this high AVG with good power ROS?
12:55
Eno Sarris: I see Pearce’s average coming down. If you watch him at the plate, he’s practically running at the ball to ramp his bat speed up for high velocity.
12:56
Comment From Jim
No, If you cut off Eno’s hair, he still would drink beer. But, it would be Schlitz, Hamms, or Old Milwaukee! You know, the good stuff!
12:56
Comment From Matt
Has Hisashi Iwakuma become what Dan Haren use to be?
12:56
Eno Sarris: Splitter with control. sure.
12:56
Comment From Corey
Segura, hold onto or bust?
12:56
Eno Sarris: Holding.
12:56
Comment From Brian Enos Synth
Eno, a question regarding fantasy team performance. Assuming a manager is decently competent, how much do you think luck/variance play in success in a fantasy league?
12:57
Eno Sarris: More in football than baseball, IMO. But I play a lot of leagues, and I can push most of my teams into the top half with energy, good portion into top three, but there are always stinkers. (I play 15 a year, so maybe as many as five will terrible)
12:57
Comment From Vic Romano
Is it reasonable to think Cain will come back strong next year? Or is this a beginning-of-the-end type of thing?
12:58
Eno Sarris: If he had 10% (league average) HR/fB, I think he’d be a 3.7/1.25 guy with 7k9. I think eh can do that.
12:58
Comment From PM_ME_YOUR_BRATS
Was offered Jered Weaver and Cody Allen for Jon Lester and Boxberger. Gotta accept, right?
12:58
Eno Sarris: Redraft league? Sure. Not in keeper. Weaver is on the way out. 86 mph fastball that he’s throwing less than ever. Looking old.
12:59
Comment From Dan Haren
Hey? I’m still here you bastards! I’m STILL DAN HAREN!
12:59
Comment From Owen
Thoughts on the cubs giants game resuming?
12:59
Eno Sarris: Seems to me like the grounds crew messed that up, I just didn’t know that was a rule.
12:59
Comment From Alex
Eno, what’s up? Should I pick up Sam Fuld or Adam Rosales? I’d be dropping Szczur for them
1:00
Eno Sarris: Fuld looks like he’ll get regular playing time down the line and Szczur is up now, so when will he be up.
1:01
Comment From Theo
With 15 leagues, do you try to get as many of the same players as possible in each? Or do you like to roll the dice on different guys? How similar are your teams?
1:01
Eno Sarris: I try not to get too target-driven (everyone has a right price), but I do usually do a list of guys I end up with: http://www.fangraphs.com/fa…
1:01
Comment From Mad Bettor
Thoughts? I’m pissed…that goes down as a loser no matter what happens because the grounds crew screwed the pooch!
1:02
Comment From francis
Furbush or Quackenbush ROS ?
1:02
Eno Sarris: Quack
1:02
Comment From Johan Santa
Eno! I’d like to congratulate you for not featuring me in your DeGrom article… not that hard to fix the link, right?
1:02
Eno Sarris: Actually almost missed it in three edits, and I hear/here there’s still something for me ot fix in there/their.
1:02
Comment From Bob
If you’re the Jays, do you keep the team together until the young prospect pitching rotation takes over, or do you sell off the veterans and do a total rebuild?
1:02
Eno Sarris: One more year and hope the young guys are ready next year.
1:03
Comment From Vic Romano
Wainwright’s struggles and shrinking K’s have me wondering how much more he’s got left in his tank, not just for this year, but for his career. Overly paranoid?
1:03
Eno Sarris: He is 32, but he seemingly has the Cliff Lee skillset if not the same health outcomes. I think maybe a major health event in the next couple of years, plus some minor ones, rob him of PT more than good numbers.
1:04
Comment From Tomas
Would you rather have Josh Harrison or Jedd Gyorko in your middle infield spot in 2015?
1:05
Eno Sarris: Harrison probably true talent .280/10/30 guy. Gyorko maybe .250/18/2? Looks like Harrison.
1:05
Eno Sarris: (Gyorko could have upside as high as .265/25, but even that is not quite better than Harrison if he holds the gains.)
1:06
Comment From Guest
Wait I’m just catching up in the chat, why were you taking so many cold showers in Jamaica?
1:06
Eno Sarris: Born there. Lived there until I was six and returned every summer until I was 21.
1:07
Comment From baltic fox
Arismendy Alcantara: he should be playing 2b more next year, right? In a 16 team 14 keeper league, I have lots of good OF bats and Miggy and Dozier in my IF. But that MI slot is so hard to fill. Keep AA over a pitcher like Smyly? My other two SP keepers would be Scherzer and Kluber.
1:07
Eno Sarris: You gotta think something happens at third and Baez ends up over there. Or Arismendy ends up at third. Or something. He’s a good infielder, I don’t *think* they give that up so easy.
1:07
Comment From Marty
I just discovered I like saisons…just in time for pumpkin beer to take shelf space. what. the. hell.
1:08
Eno Sarris: They’re not too seasonal. I just saw a few new Dupont saisons, so that’s nice.
1:08
Comment From Guest
Kuechel Stro or Mchugh as a G-rich replacement?
1:08
Eno Sarris: Keuchel safest.
1:08
Comment From Turbo Sloth
I’m challenging you to the Knife Spleen challenge to raise awareness of water wasting. Donate $1,000 to your local desalination plant or post a youtube video of you stabbing yourself in the spleen and challenge your friends!
1:08
Comment From Phil
What’s the probability that Votto and/or Bailey return by 9/8? Account for the probability the Reds might be out of it and pull the plug.
1:09
Eno Sarris: Yeah that team doesn’t seem to want to pull the plug though.
1:09
Comment From Stephen
You should talk pitching grips with the kids in the LLWS.
1:09
Eno Sarris: hah. they’d probably love it.
1:09
Comment From CuriousGeorge
know any good NYC bars with exceptional craft beers? I had to seek out a craft beer shop in grand central just to get dead rise, and pay 16$ for 4 of them… outrageous
1:09
Eno Sarris: BierKraft in Brooklyn. Pony Bar in west and east side.
1:10
Comment From Pale Hose
I am seriously disappointed that NotGraphs has failed to give us butt position plots.
1:10
Comment From Stephen
It would be a dream to be apart of an infamous lude.
1:10
Comment From Stephen
Have you ever measured how long your hair is?
1:10
Comment From Kris
Texas has Jester King. just drink that
1:10
Eno Sarris: How about one half of a decent lude?
1:10
Comment From Kneeth Richards (too soon?)
Last night I had Goose Island Bourbon County Stout for the first time. It was even better than the Parabola and Parabajava I had on Monday! DC Beer Week is the best
1:10
Eno Sarris: I found them a bit hot until aged. See if you can get an aged BCBS.
1:10
Comment From Stephen
Did you see a potential volcano eruption is threatening to cancel a college football game in ireland?
1:10
Eno Sarris: That’s a strange sentence.
1:10
Comment From JFC
Lesson learned from Dave’s great article on the Orioles and accepting random variation: don’t read the comments section. Just. Don’t.
1:11
Eno Sarris: I do! All the time!
1:11
Comment From Scooby
Don’t know why the Rangers insist on waiting till Sept to bring D. Holland up. Can we count him to at least take regular turns in the rotation through the end of the season?
1:11
Eno Sarris: I guess innings are innings and they can be funkier with him in the minors (three innings starts and the like).
1:11
Comment From DC
Regarding Mookie, what about his OBP potential? 375+?
1:11
Eno Sarris: yeah once the walk rate comes up, with a plus strikeout rate (he’s already showing a great contact rate), he could really have a nice OBP.
1:12
Comment From joey
wade miley’s K% has gone from 17.4% to 22.1% and I did not realize this until today
1:12
Eno Sarris: He actually has three above-average pitches! He’s not a bad sleeper.
1:12
Comment From baltic fox
Is Robbie Grossman going to be an adequate replacement for Coco Crisp in an AL only league (OPS + walks added as categories)? It’s six weeks of a slump, how much longer should I wait? Rosters lock at time of playoffs–two weeks from now. Thanks.
1:12
Eno Sarris: Eh. Keep Crisp. I like Robbie, but I like Crisp more.
1:13
Comment From joey
is allen webster ever going to figure it out?
1:13
Eno Sarris: He’s got legit velocity, great change, good slider. It’s all about command. And sometimes it’s confidence to just throw that damn thing in the zone.
1:13
Comment From Sadwick
I was actually able to find Left Hand Milk Stout Nitro on tap at a Texas steak house.
1:14
Eno Sarris: That’s one of the best beers you can find in strange places in the south/southwest.
1:14
Comment From Darth Stout
Ice bucket challenge but with cats.
1:14
Comment From CubsGuy1
Javy is being auditioned for a Stanton trade. You heard it hear first.
1:14
Comment From Walter Neff
She was a tramp from a long line of tramps.
1:14
Eno Sarris: Well there you go, we’re ramping up the ludes.
1:15
Eno Sarris: like the beginning of this song
1:15
LE7ELSOfficial:
1:15
Comment From Terrible Ted
If you take the blue pill, the story ends. If you take the red pill Eno, you stay in this chat forever.
1:15
Eno Sarris: you know I’d go red
1:16
Comment From Alex
Think Montero builds on his last start? I’d love to see him stick as a starter
1:16
Eno Sarris: Threw more changeups than he’d ever thrown before. That’s really good news. And got whiffs on em. Even better. I’m more hopeful now.
1:16
Comment From Rated Rookie

As the baseball season draws to close…

1:16
Comment From Exar Kunn
Do you know SQL? I keep thinking of ideas to look into, but combing through pitch f/x data by hand takes way too long, so I am going to have to learn it.
1:17
Eno Sarris: It’s easy. Go for it. Everytihng’s out there to google for you once you get your Sequel Pro and DB set up. It’s an easy language. Im an idiot and I can do easy queries with it.
1:17
Comment From Sadwick
Wait…. Darth Stout, are you dumping the ice bucket onto the cats, or just dumping a bucket of cats on yourself? Either way, I’m in.
1:17
Comment From PowerPlay
Betts, Danny Santana,or Segura ROS SS. Keep in mind the way my team is in the standings right now I have really no need for sb’s. Right now I’m rocking Bett’s
1:18
Eno Sarris: Give Betts a chance. Santana over his head and Segura not really a power help.
1:18
Comment From Tito
How would you rate Liriano, Hammel, McHugh, Carrasco for ROS?
1:18
Eno Sarris: Liriano McHugh…. Carrasco…… Hammel.
1:18
Comment From Krusty
Are IPA’s simply in a range from not too hoppy to eyes tearing up ultra hoppy, or are there multiple variables (axes) to judge the taste?
1:19
Eno Sarris: Fruity to citrus, since the New Zealand hops are fruity and the old-school hops are more citrus. You may find a nice Nelson IPA where the fruityness balances the traditional bitterness of the hops, many of my favorite IPAs are like that. Nelson IPA, Victory DirtWolf, examples.
1:20
Comment From Darth Stout
@Sadwick – Either way it’s the last thing you ever do.
1:20
Comment From Guest
Re: Jamaica. Ok, but the point of the question was WHY THE COLD SHOWERS, not why Jamaica!
1:20
Eno Sarris: Cause it’s a third world country and we didn’t have real plumbing or a hot water heater?
1:20
Comment From Darth Stout
Who is your fantasy LVP this season?
1:20
Eno Sarris: Is it Chris Davis for playing and sucking, or Prince Fielder for not playing at all? I don’t think it’s Harper, he wasn’t a first rounder.
1:20
Comment From Barton Keyes
Try The Jeffrey on 60th east of 2nd Avenue, right by the Queensboro Bridge.
1:21
Comment From Bill
In Vegas next week…suggestions?
1:21
Eno Sarris: Eat. if you spend well to eat, you’ll get good beer.
1:21
Comment From David
If baseball players were beers, what would Chris Davis be this year?
1:21
Eno Sarris: Big Hurt beer: massively disappointing.
1:21
Comment From dbet
Vegas, Cosmopolitan-Wicked Spoon buffet
1:21
Eno Sarris: Agreed!
1:21
Comment From David
Do you think Manny Machado’s offensive game would benefit from a change to SS? What do you think his offensive ceiling is?
1:22
Eno Sarris: No I doubt that move would do much. He did shave some infield flies off the resume this year, making me think he could maybe .280/25/5 at some point.
1:22
Comment From I LIKE TURTLES

1:22
Comment From Wobatus
Orioles staff has the 5th best WAR in the 2nd half. Tillman, Chen and Norris are 17th, 27th and 29th in the 2nd half in k%-bb%. Maybe not great, but with that fielding and power lineup, and sss and all, not bad.
1:23
Eno Sarris: Yeah, they’ve been better. I still don’t see a number one, and I may be a caveman, but I think those matter in the postseason.
1:23
Comment From Chris
What would be a reasonable deal for JJ Hardy? Just turned 32 so his greatest asset (above average defense at a premium position) is likely to decline and a league average offensive player with some injury history. 3 years, $34 million in the ballpark?
1:23
Eno Sarris: Definitely don’t pay more than that. I think the team will want to make it two years, even if it’s $30.
1:23
Comment From Terrible Ted
It’s lonely out in space.
1:23
Comment From Krusty
[dumb question deleted]
1:24
Comment From Mike
I, for one, am disappointed that you aren’t recommending Belching Beaver in your critique of SD beers. I am, however, overjoyed that you mentioned Modern Times
1:25
Eno Sarris: I didn’t even know they were in San Diego, honestly. I’ll have to check them out next time.
1:25
Comment From Vic Romano
Is Arrieta the pitching equivalent of Brantley this year, playing considerably over his head all year long? Or has he truly turned a corner and what he’s done actually who he is now?
1:25
Eno Sarris: He’s throwing the slider a ton, which is different, and is working. I think the next thing is a health thing.
1:25
Comment From Guest
alert(“sup”)
1:25
Comment From Guest
;;;
1:25
Comment From Rob
Just visited San Diego and here is my scouting report on Stone World Bistro in Liberty Station: Food 55, Beer 75, Atmosphere/Design/Decor 80
1:26
Eno Sarris: Airplanes 20
1:26
Comment From Sadwick
Who the hell decided everything needs to be pumpkin flavored in the Fall anyway? Can I declare that everything needs to be tomato flavored in the spring or rhubarb flavored in the winter and expect it to stick?
1:26
Eno Sarris: All of it gross.
1:26
Comment From TB
Gave my dad a trogenator last night and he took two home with him..
1:26
Eno Sarris: Spread the love!
1:26
Comment From MARTIN
HOW WILL MLBAM AFFECT FANGRAPHS AND THEIR STATS
1:26
Eno Sarris: IT COULD IMPROVE DEFENSIVE STATS GREATLY
1:26
Comment From David
Have you ever had Hell or High Watermelon beer by 21st Amendment Brewery out of California. Get one before summer ends!
1:27
Eno Sarris: I’m here so I have it often. It’s good. Really good?
1:27
Comment From Garth Vader
Even if Rodon has a 60-65 current change, Giolito has a 70 FB 70 curve and a 50/60 change. He’s going to be phil-thee
1:27
Comment From David
My league wants to stray from the traditional 5×5 and change BA to OBP. I don’t want to. What’s the best argument I can make to defend myself?
1:27
Eno Sarris: Only “most analysis and rankings is aimed at 5×5,” really. It’s all just a game, learn the rules and win.
1:28
Comment From Ryan
Looking at that preseason list of players you loved must be sad. The only viable RP you went for was… Chad Qualls?
1:29
Eno Sarris: Ah but look at the SPs I had! I was in on Richards, Keuchel, Skaggs, Kluber, Gray, Tanaka… I only have a lot of crappy RPs on the list because I never spend on bullpens. I wouldn’t say any of my bullpens sunk my teams though. Saves are always on the wire.
1:29
Comment From Vic Romano
I don’t drink beer, I prefer whisky….but it is entertaining to see all these odd names for beers.
1:30
Eno Sarris: Oh like Laphroig and Lagavulin and Caol Isla aren’t weird looking.
1:30
Comment From David
Which of the Billy Dee tandem leads the NL in stolen bases next year?
1:30
Eno Sarris: billy
1:30
Comment From Mike
How would you recommend that someone who doesn’t travel much get the opportunity to try new and interesting beers? (Belching Beaver is in San Marcos, but they opened a tasting room in North Park)
1:30
Eno Sarris: Trade?
1:30
Comment From Guest
can you comment briefly about Lester, Scherzer, Shields as good/bad free agent buys? I go shields (because he’s cheapest) 1st, scherzer because he’s the best now (+ abuse) second, lester last because he hasn’t been that great 2 previous years
1:30
Eno Sarris: Not bad, I like it.
1:30
Comment From Fowler
What’s Guyer’s story? Is he a fluke or does he have some value next season?
1:31
Eno Sarris: he’s got skills but he’s right-handed and so the floor is really low.
1:31
Comment From Guest
I am first in a deep league but am now down richards and tulo for my post season. what do I do? cry probably
1:31
Eno Sarris: in a similar situation in a dynasty, I traded Corey Seager for Jose Reyes and picked up Shoemaker. Make due!
1:31
Comment From Alex
Billy deNutz
1:32
Comment From Wobatus
Gavin Cecchini sighting just outside Cistulli’s fringe 5. 98 wRC+, 11.1% BB 14.8% k rate and .131 ISO across 2 levels at age 20. Might not be much in fantasy, but may end up useful in real life after all as a scratch hitting shortstop.
1:32
Eno Sarris: And the Mets need a shortstop. They still don’t have one.
1:32
Comment From Locke
Despite his shoulders issues are you surprised that Jon Niese wasn’t claimed off of waivers due to his success while on the mound and his affordable contract?
1:32
Eno Sarris: Yes but I’m not wowed by his stuff and he went on waivers while he was on the DL I believe.
1:32
Comment From Art Vandelay
http://www.reddit.com/r/bee…
1:33
Comment From David
Is Miguel Cabrera’s best years behind him now or a bounce back to 40 homers still likely?
1:33
Eno Sarris: I think both are possible. He’s 31, so he has another good year in him, but how great will it be, even if he hits 40.
1:33
Comment From MARTIN
KLUBER OR ARRIETA 2015?
1:33
Eno Sarris: Kluber.
1:33
Comment From Art Vandelay
I think I like looking at 21st Amendment beers more than I ever enjoy drinking them.
1:34
Eno Sarris: Yeah, I like not love them. I actually go to Cellarmaker if I’m looking for beer on the way to the ballpark now. Or the Public House.
1:34
Comment From Ryan
Yeah you have nailed SPs this year. Do you feel like you’ve had unusual success there this year? A lot of the calls have been backed up by legitimate data from pitch type peripherals, info about new pitches, etc.
1:35
Eno Sarris: I’m hoping to turn it into something more regimented. Need to run some numbers so I can see how important the fastball is versus the rest of the pitches, but so far my ideas have been stymied.
1:35
Comment From Garth Vader
If the Royals were to let Butler walk and trade for Gattis, would you think a Top-100 guy like Zimmer/Mondesi/Manaea is an overpay?
1:37
Eno Sarris: Well Zimmer’s injury maybe makes him an interesting name. Gattis going to have a three-plus win season at 28. Not much projectability left. But yeah, should get a good name back, if not a top top talent.
1:37
Comment From Darth Stout
You can design your own “#55 Carmona” Dodgers jersey at MLB’s website. This is funny to me.
1:37
Eno Sarris: Nice, can I change it to #68 Camaro instead?
1:38
Comment From Jeet
Is this now the new standard for Evan Longoria?
1:38
Eno Sarris: I think I’d project him for .260/25 next year, so a down year, but it has changed his projections.
1:39
Comment From Engorged
Cellarmaker>Almanac>Magnolia>Speakeasy>21st Amendment>Anchor
1:39
Eno Sarris: Nailed it.
1:39
Comment From Alex
Not having all the awesome Cubs prospects in the majors is killing me inside
1:39
Eno Sarris: Here’s something worse: one will bust when they get there, at least.
1:39
Comment From Locke
Do you expect David Robertson to be back with the Yankees next year or does Betances take over as closer next year?
1:39
Eno Sarris: I bet they just give it to Betances and use the money elsewhere.
1:40
Eno Sarris: Hey!
1:40
Eno Sarris: Thanks for hanging out!
1:40
Eno Sarris: See you guys again next week.
1:40
Comment From Sadwick
May the beer be with you.


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Graphs: Baseball, Roto, Beer, brats (OK, no graphs for that...yet), repeat. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris.


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Dingus
Guest
Dingus
1 year 9 months ago

Garret Richards :( Why are dem baseball gods so cruel? Doesn’t this reinforcement the idea that the most dangerous team in October is the healthiest team and not necessiarly the most talented team? And also, is there a large enough sample size of patella injuries to pitchers to make assumptions about Richards when he turns? Thanks Eno!

DC Beer Week
Guest
DC Beer Week
1 year 9 months ago

It was a 2012 BCBS, on tap at some special Stout event. I went to have one, had three, and fell off my bike on the way home. My body hurts but I wasn’t hit by a bus, so, worth it!

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