Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 9/19/13

11:53
Eno Sarris: phew. here at noon! having some internet issues..
12:00
Eno Sarris: Okay so I know nothing about this artist for the lyrics of the day, and the clip I listened to actually quoted another artist for the first part (one that I like), but that makes this hard to google, and the name of the song is relevant today. So that’s why.

You can find some time to be someone
Like a valentine for a lonely soul
You can treat me like a fool
And hate-

Some love brings me down
Some love turns me round and round
and round and round
and round and round and round and round and round

12:00
Comment From AJT
Just wanted to say that I loved the Trout piece. Nice work!
12:01
Eno Sarris: I don’t think it was my best work actually. I wish I could have gotten him to open up more. But! I really do love the idea that Mike Trout is Joey Votto plus centerfield D and elite speed on the basepaths.
12:01
Comment From Matt
Ubaldo or Cole today?
12:01
Eno Sarris: I’m going with Cole. Houston can run into a few homers and Cole is the better pitcher right now.

12:01
Comment From Tristan
I know that logically he isn’t a keeper, but I feel like I HAVE to keep Villar now or I will feel bad. That butt tag was brutal.
12:01
Eno Sarris: There is no sympathy in fantasy baseball, buttfacetag or no.
12:01
Comment From Desperate for saves
The probability that Melancon loses closer job (i.e. not counting possibly resting tonight) during next 4 games is ____.
12:02
Eno Sarris: Kinda feel like it’s 10%. Thought it was higher before I saw that Grilli’s velo is not quite back and he’s already blown a save. If they said from the beginning, we need to get grilled cheese back in the ninth eventually… then I’d say higher.
12:03
Comment From JEB
Saving my last bottle of Pliny for a championship fantasy toast…did I just jinx myself?
12:03
Eno Sarris: Dangit dude drink it now, it’s the only way to undo the jinx.
12:03
Comment From Tommy
Drop 2 pitchers who are going to hurt me most on whip in their matchup (ROS Steamer whip shown):

Nolasco @ARI (1.24)
Porcello vCHW (1.29)
Gray vMIN (1.35)
Kluber vHOU (1.30)

12:04
Eno Sarris: It’s Porcello that leaps out for me. And for that matchup alone I might take Gray over Kluber.
12:04
Comment From JT
Is Hanley a decent off season sell this year in fantasy leagues? He just can’t seem to stay healthy.
12:05
Eno Sarris: He is, but I’m going to keep him at $23 in one auction league. I know this is armchair psychology, but he really seems to live and die with the competitiveness of his team. And that team should be competitive.
12:05
Comment From JAL
Eno, have had a hell of a year but it’s all down to these last ten days. Need some advice. Need wins and to lower my rates. Have an innings cap. Can you back me starting Kuroda today v. Toronto? How about Ervin Santana tomm. v. Texas or CC tomm. v. SF? Greatly appreciate it as always!
12:05
Eno Sarris: Yes on Kuroda, CC, no on Erv.
12:05
Comment From Joe
What is a proper sacrifice to protect Matt Kemp from any more injuries?
12:05
Eno Sarris: Only Jobu knows.
12:06
Comment From SteveV
If you were the BlueJays would you hand Rasmus a BJ Upton type contract extension?
12:06
Eno Sarris: nononononononononon
12:06
Comment From tehzachatak
have you ever had oyster beer? like it?
12:06
Eno Sarris: The one from 21A is better than I thought it would be. If you’re talking Rocky Mountain Oysters, no. Not yet. Will try most things once.
12:06
Comment From Spencer
What round are you drafting Billy Hamilton next year?
12:08
Eno Sarris: I’d like him after I had much of my lineup and my first two starters, so maybe 8/9/10 without looking? Check out this piece by JJ Cooper at Baseball America http://ht.ly/p1u7O It’s basically impossible to throw out Billy Hamilton.
12:08
Comment From Day Drinking
Tied for 2nd best regular-season record in my H2H league. Will place 6th, thanks to playoffs and bad juju. MIght sit out H2H leagues next year.
12:08
Comment From TB
Thursdays are my new Fridays, thanks Eno!
12:08
Comment From Marty
ENO, whoa-oh-oh-oh….
He’s for the money, he’s for the show
Eno’s a-waitin’ for another go
Eno, whoa-oh-oh-oh-oh-oh….
12:08
Comment From Guest
Will the Cubs trade Smardj? If so, what will be their asking price?
12:09
Eno Sarris: I think they could, but it’s too bad he didn’t keep it up all year. They’d want a ransom, I think. He’s a little older than you might think because of his history.
12:09
Comment From Todd
Championship! Which 2 sketchy streams are my best bet: Hammel @TB, Volquez @SD, Erlin v LAD, Dice-K @PHI, Clemens @CLE, P Hernandez @Oak…
12:10
Eno Sarris: Oh man I just looked at this same list and hated all of them. Seriously. All of them. Erlin might be the one I like most. The rest all have terrible K-BBs, which is the easiest way to evaluate guys. And some of them might not even make it five innings because of durability questions.
12:10
Comment From person hscer
even the Braves will have a hard time blowing a 9-game lead with 10 to go, I assume? drats.
12:11
Eno Sarris: But for all the bellyaching about the Nats’ playoff percentage being high, now it seems reasonable, given how the schedule has played out. Nats gave it a good ride.
12:11
Comment From saskatunes
Need a fill in catcher today… roll w Sanchez vs. Niese? or wait to see who plays tonight. slim pickings…
12:11
Eno Sarris: Seems okay. I dunno who else you got.
12:11
Comment From Marty
Let’s be honest, if you had just stood near Trout, and drooled, we would’ve liked it. I’m glad you didn’t though, that piece was fun.
12:11
Eno Sarris: Almost what happened. Except he’s very physically intimidating and also gave me the impression that he was on his way to doing something more important. Which… he was.
12:12
Comment From SteveV
CF question, who would you rather invest money in for the next 5 yrs-Rasmus or Fowler (also consider defense)?
12:12
Eno Sarris: I think Fowler. I mean, I wish Fowler hadn’t goofed up his knee this year, but if that’s not a big deal… Rasmus’ power surge came with all those Ks, speed declining… I don’t love him.
12:12
Comment From Brian
A-Cab, Andrus or Iglesias at ROS in a BA league? Or should I take it series by series?
12:13
Eno Sarris: A-Cab for power, Andrus for speed, depends on needs.
12:13
Comment From Marty
How many games will Hamilton start ROS?
12:13
Eno Sarris: Three?
12:13
Comment From juan pierres mustache
based on villar’s reaction, i’m not sure he fully comprehended that he had just run into a butt
12:13
Eno Sarris: He was in the game! He was like, WAS I SAFE? I’m sure a second after the clip ends, he was like. aw man, that was butt.
12:13
Comment From person hscer
Nats still get to be among the favorites going into 2014, right?
12:14
Eno Sarris: I’d say so, but this is the guy that picked the Braves to win the division this year. My other picks go a long way to making that look like dumb luck though: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2013-fangraphs-staff-predictions/
12:14
Comment From Gila Monster
Am I the only one targeting Cole Hamels in every single league next year?
12:15
Eno Sarris: I love getting second-tier number ones. I always try to get two or three #1/2s in the 6-8th rounds. I think I’ll own a lot of Hamels.
12:15
Comment From Daniel Bryan
I have Reyes (SS), Ortiz (UTIL) and Votto (1B). Who do I bench the next time I see Billy Hamilton is starting? Anyone?
12:15
Eno Sarris: I guess Reyes. Hamilton more auto-SB.
12:15
Comment From Tom
How do you feel about CC against the Giants and Latos against the Pirates? I have a few starters going up against bad offenses, so should I avoid starting those two if I can?
12:15
Eno Sarris: I like both of them.
12:15
Comment From saskatunes
I saw the Red Sox in April and they lost to the O’s 3-2. I saw them Tues and they lost to the O’s… 3-2. Should I self-impose a ban on attending Sox games? (Note: was totally awesome to see Davis break O’s HR record though. Ball went right to my section)
12:16
Eno Sarris: It’s only weird if it doesn’t work?
12:16
Eno Sarris: (So sorry. So so sorry. Advertising campaigns are separate from the actual thing they advertising to me. And that’s not a bad one.)
12:16
Comment From JEB
NOOOOOOOOOOOOO, i wanted to have it in a champagne flute sunday evening!
12:16
Comment From Vin
Is JP Arencibia the worst player in baseball?
12:16
Eno Sarris: GUZZLE IT NOW RESPONSIBLY
12:16
Eno Sarris: yes maybe yes
12:17
Comment From JAL
Thanks for that. How have your teams fared this year?
12:17
Eno Sarris: I’ll win three or so leagues. Only finish in the bottom half in a couple leagues. Took my scoresheet team from worst in league to second in wild card race. Pretty good year.
12:17
Comment From Toommy
Follow-up on whip pitchers…so your trust Nolasco to meet his Steamer whip of 1.24 @ARI after his blowup vSF last week?
12:18
Eno Sarris: You know, he’s @AZ. I’ll take Kluber at home over him. So Kluber and Gray? I like their matchups.
12:18
Comment From juan pierres mustache

today, in umpire modern dance:

12:18
Comment From Seth
Why is WAR measured with only one decimal point? I understand that you can’t show ALL the digits, but shouldn’t we know who’s a 2.0 win player and who’s a 2.09 win player at least?
12:20
Eno Sarris: I don’t think WAR is that precise. Or supposed to be. It’s a better rough estimate type thing, given some of the limitations of defensive numbers. I’d rather know who are the six-win guys in the NL, and consider them all NL MVP candidates, and then decide between them. A grouping number. Ten wins is impressive, so is Musial’s 9.9.
12:20
Comment From Grrr
Matt Dominguez worth watching at all? Low BB%, low K%, decent ISO.
12:20
Eno Sarris: I had him in AL-Labr and was happy with him. For mixed leagues, his batting average just doesn’t look like it’ll work. But with that low K% and good power, there is a chance for him.
12:20
Comment From John
Trout was a 10 win player last year, then increased his OBP by 40 points and should surpass that. What is his true talent level? 8 Wins? More?
12:21
Eno Sarris: I believe his BABIP is real. He’s a Votto-type spray hitter with more power probably. Or more power coming at least? If he’s even just a +5 CF defender, I’d push that up to 9 wins or so. If he’s a +5 LF, maybe eight.
12:21
Comment From zack
Verlander is a top _ starting pitcher next year? I mean he was struggling against the Mariners offense?
12:22
Eno Sarris: There’s some velocity loss, and some mechanical stuff. I’ll still take him in my “second-tier ace” strategy, where I try to get two or three starters in the top 20.
12:22
Comment From Haymaker
Best guess on how the Cubs will handle Baez/Castro when it is time to bring Baez up. Move Castro to 2B? Move Baez to 3B? Trade Castro?
12:23
Eno Sarris: They have another half-year-plus of Castro to see what he can do. If he doesn’t play that well with the bat, but improves the D, maybe they keep him because trade value not high. if he’s not great with D still, and that’s more likely, and he improves with bat, I bet they trade him.
12:23
Eno Sarris: That all presumes that Baez can handle short.
12:23
Comment From zack
Is Strasburg breaking down? How many starts can I reasonably expect next year?
12:24
Eno Sarris: 30 starts / 175 or so IP sounds okay to me as a cocktail napkin projection.
12:24
Comment From Razor
Does the moment ever get too big for you as a writer? Like do you ever think when you’re talking with Trout that this is what it would have been like to interview Mickey Mantle?
12:26
Eno Sarris: My inclination is to say no because it’s not like I have Nelson Mandela in my interview room or something. On the other hand, I do have a sort of urgency that pops up into my head like “dude you better get these questions out he’s not going to give you a ton of time, did you ask that one, gah are you screwing this up, come on, rally.” It’s the kind of thing that I can shut up most of the time, and with time hopefully I’ll shut it up more. Like when you’re at the plate, you probably don’t want to be thinking a ton.
12:26
Comment From Ray
When I think of you talking to Trout I imagine you looking like Charlton Heston in the Ten Commandments when he was conversing with the Almighty.
12:26
Comment From Razor
I won my league (thanks Eno), but…now what?
12:26
Comment From Ian
“aw man, that was a butt” is how most of my interactions with other people end
12:26
Eno Sarris: Melancholidrama Lude.
12:26
Comment From Farva
feelings on Puig for next year?
12:27
Eno Sarris: Some adjustment. .265/30/10 would feel like a decent projection for me. Maybe make that homer number 28 just so you don’t overbid.
12:27
Comment From KJ
safe to drop Delabar in a keeper? I feel like he can do so much better but been killing me in playoffs…
12:27
Eno Sarris: Always safe to drop non-closer relievers when you need to.
12:27
Comment From Tristan
Better play for the final week in Roto: JB Shuck or Josh Willingham?
12:27
Eno Sarris: Willingham.
12:27
Comment From Joe
If Kemp is back and healthy (Jobu Pray for us) is the right move to sit Crawford? Also, would that make the Dodgers WS favorites?
12:28
Eno Sarris: They can play the matchups. I’d be sitting Ethier a lot though.
12:28
Comment From Time Traveler from March 1st 1996
Quickly Sarris: Who do I take with my first overall pick in my 5X5 10 team H2H, AL only league: Albert Belle? Junior? Mo Vaughn?
12:28
Eno Sarris: JUNIOR
12:28
Eno Sarris: Kinda want to look at 1996 to see if I goofed that up.
12:28
Comment From Marty
What do you think happens to the Pirates? I get this sinking feeling they’re gonna lose the WC game, and it won’t feel like they made the playoffs to anyone except MLB brass.
12:29
Eno Sarris: They have a good rotation and a good pen and I think they could win the WC game. But yeah, it’s a crap shoot, and winning the division is huge. Frigging cardinals. Every year.
12:29
Comment From Farva
Feelings on Rendon next year?
12:29
Eno Sarris: I think he’ll improve. Okay batting average, better OBP, good power.
12:29
Comment From SteveV
Delgado a breakout candidate next year?
12:30
Eno Sarris: I keep looking at his peripherals and am usually a bit surprised. That said. I don’t love his stuff. I think no.
12:30
Comment From john
Whats worse, dropping from first to second with only 2 weeks to play, or dropping from first to second after trading wheeler, rendon, and soler in an NL only league, thinking that you pretty much secured the victory with that move?
12:30
Eno Sarris: All of it.
12:30
Comment From Tristan
Just realized I sent in a question about choosing between Josh Willingham and JB Shuck. My season is already over.
12:30
Eno Sarris: I like the Compliant Pork.
12:30
Comment From Day Drinking
Trout is like Gandalf to Eno’s Frodo. Carry the WAR, my son, but be warned, statistics will twist your beliefs and, if you’re not careful, your very soul. Sometimes a ballplayer is just a ballplayer.
12:31
Comment From dude
Eno Sarris introduces himself to Mike Trout: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wK9odsWwfIo
12:31
Comment From John
I just have a hard time wrapping my head around the fact that Trout’s true talent could be equal to a career year of a star player.
12:31
Eno Sarris: Fishy Interlude
12:31
Comment From Dave
I don’t think fantasy baseball works in a chat format, why don’t you just answer those questions on twitter or through email. The only person who cares about each question is the person asking it.
12:32
Eno Sarris: Eh, there are a lot of player evaluations in here that concern most people, plus beer and fun.
12:32
Comment From Guest
At what point do platoons have a negative impact on payroll for teams? Basically, in order to spend money two roster spots on one position, is it fiscally reasonable to do so (if the amount of money is 50%,70%, etc. of what it would take to fill said position with one FA)?
12:33
Eno Sarris: yeah you know, there’s also a roster question. Say you want to platoon your OF and 1B like the Rangers did. Then you have one guy to play the entire non-1B infield, right? You need all-the-time starters somewhere on the diamond. Look at what happened to Adam Rosales this year. I submit that his plight was the direct result of all the platooning the A’s did in the OF and at 1B. And when you get to the playoffs, you need to pick 25.
12:33
Comment From Guest
is there any statistical merit to the conventional baseball wisdom that says that deep pitch counts favor the batter (i.e. he’s seen all your pitches)
12:34
Eno Sarris: I don’t think it works for just the batter, or the outcome of the single plate appearance, but TEAMS that see more pitches do see an effect, I think. So it’s more about cumulative tiring.
12:34
Comment From JL
I will have the opportunity to meet Nate Silver in person tomorrow. If you could ask him one question (about baseball), what would it be?
12:35
Eno Sarris: I think I’d ask him something about pitches. Does he think there’s a pitch that’s better than the rest, or a pitch that is healthier for the arm? Either that, or what is sabermetric analysis worst at evaluating?
12:35
Comment From SteveV
Do you think Espinosa can regain his offense and find a full-time job?
12:36
Eno Sarris: I’ll think he’ll end up with a third-tier team like the Marlins, and rebuild some value. Really, he can be valuable if you look past the batting average.
12:36
Comment From Guest
Wilson Ramos or Matt Wieters in 2014?
12:36
Eno Sarris: Kinda liking Ramos actually. It looks like his batting average should be better. And not like Wieters’ power is elite.
12:36
Comment From Guest
Eno, I’m in a keeper league where I was just knocked out of the playoffs. Our league has no trade deadline. Do you think it is acceptable to trade my players who are usable but not keepable to the contending teams for draft picks, or should there be a rule that these contending teams can’t make a move this late? Thanks
12:37
Eno Sarris: If there’s no rule, it’s acceptable. But there should be a rule in the future. Probably. I like late trade deadlines, but probably rosters should be set for the playoffs.
12:37
Comment From Guest
Better fantasy pitcher next year – Jordan Zimmerman or Gerrit Cole?
12:37
Eno Sarris: I think Cole’s Ks will continue to embiggen, so I like him.
12:37
Comment From Guest
My AL-only team included the following players at auction: Pujols, Ackley, Moustakas, Brett Anderson, Jeremy Hellickson, Peter Bourjos, Michael Saunders and Jose Veras. Hold me.
12:38
Eno Sarris: Looks pretty much like my AL-LABR team.
12:38
Comment From Guest
What round do you think Josh Donaldson goes next year?
12:38
Eno Sarris: I don’t think people believe! I’ll take him in the first five though. I believe. Might even push it to third or fourth.
12:38
Comment From Matt Harvey
Eno, let’s get into fantasy baseball and beer some other time. I really want to talk about Qualcomm.
12:38
Eno Sarris: It’s really excellent.
12:38
Comment From John Stamos
Stream Burch Smith against @LAD and vSF to close the season?
12:39
Eno Sarris: A lot of risk, but really top-shelf upside. If you need Ks and need a ‘home-run’ type move, this is great.
12:39
Comment From wes
Granderson or Pagan ROS? And Headley or Swisher? HR, SBs most important
12:39
Eno Sarris: Granderson. Hmmmm Headley.
12:39
Comment From saskatunes
Tony Cruz vs Oswalt also on the table….
12:39
Eno Sarris: I’ll take that one.
12:39
Comment From JAL
Kind of a dumb/relative question, but who will be next year’s crop of young, possibly underrated, sick pitchers? (I am thinking this year’s Minor, Cobb, Miller, etc.) Sonny Gray, Alex Wood, Kluber, Salazar there or no? Others? Thanks!
12:40
Eno Sarris: Those are all great names. Kluber more of a find it late veteran, so I’ll put him last.
12:40
Comment From Andrew
Can I ask how you even get interviews with these guys? Do you go through the Angels? How do you introduce yourself? FanGraphs nerd?
12:41
Eno Sarris: I’m a member of the baseball writer’s association, so I’m allowed into the clubhouse. And then, yeah, pretty much. I ask them if they have a moment or if I can bug them while they’re dressing. Then I ask them if they’ve heard of FanGraphs, just because some have and that makes for an interesting conversation.
12:41
Eno Sarris: That said, I’m not sure if it’s the best open.
12:41
Comment From dude
This chat is full of nerds. NERDS!
12:41
Eno Sarris: Darwin?
12:42
Comment From Sadwick
Loria is starting to look like more of a dictator than just a dick. It’s really petty to screw with a guy’s career because he logged a complaint against someone you hired and liked. Any chance Selig can man up and do something about Loria, or are the Marlins doomed to the same treatment the Expos got?
12:42
Eno Sarris: Bud Selig is in the back pocket of every owner. You think he hates Loria? Why’d he give him two teams?
12:42
Comment From Marty
If you’ve ever met Eno, you wouldnt compare him to Frodo. Eno’s very tall in person.
12:42
Eno Sarris: More fraggle rock. Or Kenny G.
12:43
Comment From Joe
Why sit Ethier, he has been clearly better than Crawford this year, even against lefties (Yikes is that a low bar).
12:43
Eno Sarris: I guess I still have hope for Crawford, who I’m guessing has a smaller sample due to the injuries. But maybe you’re right.
12:43
Comment From TB
I don’t know how many times someone has asked my question. The only problem is then I hate them for life!!!!!!!!!!!!! There can only be one!!!!!!!!!!!!
12:43
Comment From juan pierres mustache
well no one cares about your question either, Dave. Also, I don’t believe your name is Dave.
12:43
Eno Sarris: Dave got luded?
12:44
Comment From JEB
The real question you should have asked Trout: Do you think the Angels are going to draft fish named players more often than not now? I mean come on, they’re 2 for 2!
12:44
Comment From person hscer
Why is it when I order a Subway footlong, I always eat the better half first? Two bites into the second half, I almost always start thinking I should have switched my order of consumption. This is going straight to a lude, isn’t it…
12:44
Eno Sarris: we hit a real bumpy lude there.
12:44
Comment From Mike
How good does Billy Hamilton need to be at the plate to justify a full-time role next season? .300 OBP? Pardon my ignorance, but I don’t know much about his defense.
12:45
Eno Sarris: Well his D is kind of the same as his offense: iffy but athletic. I think he can at least be a scratch CF, because even with a bad route, he can fly to the spot. And honestly, from the few times I’ve seen him in CF, I’ll take it for more than scratch. So +5 CF, +infinity on the base paths, I think they can handle a .300 OBP. And he HAS walked some in the minors. Could be better.
12:45
Comment From SteveV
Do you think Beltran can maintain his production next year or does he regress a little or a lot?
12:46
Eno Sarris: I think the regression will come more in the playing time. He’s an excellent hitter, and has aged well with the bat, but the knee will come knocking.
12:46
Comment From Farva
lets get hypothetical. Stanton traded in the offseason? 1/2 through next year? ends up where and his final stat line?
12:47
Eno Sarris: You know, if the Rangers don’t make it this year, I think they might consider a package. Especially if that package can be built around Andrus instead of Profar. And if he goes to Texas, I.. don’t… can’t… write those numbers down. Just say: it will be good.
12:47
Comment From Guest
Nova (vs SF, @ HOU) or Lynn (@ MIL, CHC) down the stretch?
12:48
Eno Sarris: Dangit, kinda like both. Nova’s matchups slightly better I guess.
12:48
Comment From Saison Bernice
Do I dare drop Ellsbury (2nd round keeper)to help my team, maybe, win this year? If I do drop him, someone else will add him and be able to keep him as a last round pick.
12:48
Eno Sarris: Oh man that’s too much value you’re giving someone else. I’m in a dogfight H2H league and I have to keep CarGo on the roster. I just wish they put these guys on the DL
12:48
Comment From Guest
thoughts on d’aurnoud for 2014? i’ve heard if healthy, carlos santana but i mean, serrriousslly???
12:49
Eno Sarris: Nah, I’m not putting him there. .270+ with a good OBP, so I guess in that way Santana, but doesn’t have the same power. 25ish HR power?
12:49
Comment From Et tu, Brute?
Eno… thoughts on snifters? Do they make a huge difference in taste quality?
12:49
Eno Sarris: Big difference in smell quality, which does affect taste a bit. We have an ongoing series on BeerGraphs about same beer, three cups, and they’ve been coming up with the same results.
12:49
Comment From juan pierres mustache
wilson ramos has saved countless fantasy teams this year. god bless the nats and their sudden willingness to run players into the ground because of diminishing playoff hopes.
12:50
Eno Sarris: Did he start like 24 games in a row or something crazy?
12:50
Comment From guest
How good is D.Salazar going to be next year?
12:50
Eno Sarris: The crazy thing is that his slider could be plus, and if it is, he’s plus plus. I wonder if he’s always had velocity like this, but otherwise, I’m drooling.
12:50
Comment From person hscer
Burch Smith? Is Bud Smith trying to make a comeback in disguise?
12:50
Eno Sarris: Burch throws GAS. Bud… didn’t.
12:51
Comment From Guest
gotta take bonds first overall in 96, 40-40 .300
12:51
Eno Sarris: But did we know that going in? Wish I had a great memory. My computer is my brain.
12:51
Comment From SteveV
Did Tor make a mistake on Cabrera or does he make a comeback next year?
12:51
Eno Sarris: I don’t believe. I think he’s back off the juice. I can say that, right? Cause it’s all documented.
12:52
Comment From Tristan

My god that was violent.

12:52
Comment From JT
I’m sick of trying to pick between Rizzo and Belt at UTIL in one league: it’s Belt, right?
12:52
Eno Sarris: Right now, sure. But long term? I’m not so sure. I believe in Rizzo’s power more. He Ks less, so I could believe in his batting average more too. And I doubt Belt keeps stealing.
12:53
Comment From dude
Donaldson has a higher WAR than Miguel Cabrera in 2013. So, let’s say you knew Donaldson would post his WAR, and Miggy his…and you can pick either to be your 3b for that year (2013), knowing full well what their WAR would end up being. Salaries aside, who do you choose?
12:53
Eno Sarris: Could I pick Miggy to be my first baseman? Cause that’s what I’d do.
12:53
Comment From SteveV
Do you see Eaton as a breakout candidate next year with above avg OBP and defense and average power and speed for a CF?
12:54
Eno Sarris: Yes I love him. Look at that contact rate! Decent power! Wheels! I might roll the SB projections back, but still, .280/.350 type avg/obp with 10-15 hr, 30 steals? Yeah, I dig it.
12:54
Comment From jesse
12:54
Comment From Terrible Ted
Who has surprised you by answering “yes” to the have you heard of fangraphs question?
12:55
Eno Sarris: Trout surprised me by having not heard of it despite having heard of WAR. Doolittle had heard of FanGraphs, don’t know why that surprised me, but it did.
12:55
Comment From juan pierres mustache
Eating the better half of the sandwich early is fundamental sandwich consumption. In the course of eating a sandwich, there are countless things that can go wrong–the second half falls over and is impossible to reassemble, someone nearby sneezes on it, you spill your drink and soak the good half you were saving, or you might just be less hungry than you thought. As appealing as it might be to “finish strong” by preserving the better half, it’s just good strategy to make sure you take full advantage of the resources at hand before something terrible happens.
12:55
Eno Sarris: SERIOUS.
12:56
Comment From John
24 team, H2H, cap at $295 next year, can keep as many as you want. Am I certifiably nuts for considering Ike Davis at $16?
12:56
Eno Sarris: Yes.
12:56
Comment From saskatunes
Right now my last 2 starts in the championship are scheduled to be Vogelsong and Petit @NYY. Pray for me.
12:56
Eno Sarris: OH GOD NO DON’T DO THE PETIT START NOOOOOOOOO
12:56
Eno Sarris: Seriously, he’s a homer barrage waiting to happen.
12:56
Comment From dude
My prediction if Stanton goes to Texas: Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
12:56
Comment From dude
I have real life things to do, and this chat is stopping me from doing them. I thank you.
12:56
Comment From person hscer
If you read Beltran too quickly it comes out Batman. At least just now for me.
12:56
Comment From juan pierres mustache
tulips make all the beer better
12:57
Eno Sarris: I approve.
12:57
Comment From Dave
Thoughts on Tanner Roark? Mostly for next season
12:57
Eno Sarris: Have to watch more, but tons of GBs, and that team could use a 4/5. Wouldn’t spend a ton on him.
12:57
Comment From juan pierres mustache
yeah, ramos has started every game since 8/22 except for one half of the doubleheader on tuesday
12:57
Comment From JEB
I like tulips more than snifters. But I still would like to find a good teku glass to drink out of.
12:57
Eno Sarris: I want one of those IPA glasses!
12:57
Comment From TB
Whom do you like better next year, D. Salazar or J. Fernandez???
12:58
Eno Sarris: Fernandez pitches in the NL. And has been better for longer.
12:58
Comment From LudeBurger
I’m back. from your stomach
12:58
Eno Sarris: Nah dude you better stay down there.
12:58
Comment From LarryA
On a per Inning basis, whos more likely to get a win (or a desicion) a starter, setup man, or closer
12:58
Eno Sarris: On a one inning basis? Setup man. Closer has to blow it to get the win.
12:59
Comment From Terrible Ted
Is it unrealistic to think I should be paid by an MLB club to read Fangraphs and report back to them with the coles notes?
12:59
Eno Sarris: Some people wonder if the players are telling me too much. And you can see from my interviews that the veterans tell me more: they know the book is out there already, so F it, lets’ talk.
12:59
Comment From ar
where are you picking stanton next year? or are you waiting to see where he lands?
1:00
Eno Sarris: If he’s traded, that’s a big deal to his value. But in Florida, still a third-rounder to me. Just a bit more health risk, still great power.
1:00
Comment From JAL
Eno, back to Eaton for a second. I have posed this question before to someone else here, but what is the deal re Eaton and steals (or the lack thereof re attempts)? In 291 AB between this year and last (SSS of course), he has 6 steals and 5 gun downs. I never get to watch them as an East Coaster – is this Gibson? Something else? You think he will be 30-40 guy next year? Much appreciated.
1:01
Eno Sarris: I think it takes a while to read pitchers if you don’t have Billy Hamilton skills. It could be Gibson, but if you get caught half the time, you don’t get an auto green light. I would project 40 but he’s got some wheels and I think 25+ is still in his reach next year.
1:01
Comment From LarryA
Is this about what I can expect from Alex Gordon for the next few years, .275 20/10? I wish he wasnt hitting leadoff
1:01
Eno Sarris: Basically Nick Markakis plus.
1:02
Comment From Andrew
I have a serious question, and feel free to answer as vaguely as possible or not at all. How would you describe all your income? Let’s say compared to your fellow Stanford grads. If unemployed a 0 and the lucky dude who started some tech company is 10. I’m just really really curious on this, without getting too personal.
1:02
Eno Sarris: -2
1:02
Eno Sarris: Ah I guess if zero is unemployed, maybe a two or three.
1:02
Comment From JEB
Think Eaton is a keeper in a 4 keeper league?
1:02
Eno Sarris: No
1:02
Comment From LarryA
If Ubaldo helps the Indians make the playoffs, I think Mark Shaprio will have won his 1st trade ever!
1:03
Eno Sarris: And that was the one where he gave up two interesting pitching prospects for an over-the-hill declining wild thing!
1:03
Comment From Guest
Who is the most pleasant player you’ve ever interviewed?
1:04
Eno Sarris: Sean Doolittle. Joey Votto. John Jaso.
1:04
Comment From person hscer
At some point Trout is only going to have a decent season, and then what
1:04
Eno Sarris: He’ll rebound the next year. Or he’ll win the MVP in the down year and we’ll just headassplode.
1:04
Comment From ScotT
For next year, is Taveras this years Myers? Do you think he’s average in CF?
1:05
Eno Sarris: I think he’s a bit different. I believe in his hit tool more, so I like his batting average. Myers more power.
1:05
Comment From LarryA
where can I see this butt tag?
1:05
Eno Sarris: Scroll up.
1:05
Comment From ScotT
Doesn’t Beltan to Tex on a 2 yr deal to play DH/OF make too much sense for all involved?
1:06
Eno Sarris: That’s pretty delectable, and will probably work out better than Berkman.
1:06
Comment From ar
you know what i want to ask all the heyman idiots: if trout was on detroit, with the same numbers, who would you vote for?
1:06
Eno Sarris: We don’t have to do the name calling, but the sentiment is good. What if Austin Jackson was Mike Trout.
1:07
Eno Sarris: The quality of the team mattering is a head scratcher to me. 25 men on a team, and we’re going to hang the record on one guy?
1:07
Comment From Guest
Keep 5: Marte or Fernandez in the 18th?
1:07
Eno Sarris: .275/15/35 or an ace. But the ace is a pitcher. Fernandez. I’ll take him.
1:07
Comment From tylersnotes
Brandon Belt is a top __ 1b in 2014, between ____ and ____
1:08
Eno Sarris: 12, between 14 and 10.
1:08
Comment From Tristan
Pretty sure your headassplode comment was a backhanded shot at Villar. The guy has has enough.
1:08
Comment From Spencer
Why does CB Bucknor suck so much? Why is he allowed to be an umpire?
1:08
Comment From tylersnotes
you’re killing me eno
1:09
Eno Sarris: Wait you think he’s much better? I’d pencil him for .270/20/7 next season.
1:09
Comment From Terrible Ted
Is there any fault to how Dusty is utilizing Billy Hamilton so far?
1:10
Eno Sarris: Personally, I would have had Hamilton up earlier in the season, when Luddy was out, and moved Choo to LF. Because I don’t like Choo’s CF D. And he probably would have made Luddy a fourth outfielder by now.
1:10
Comment From tylersnotes
no– i know what numbers 12 is between. i want names
1:12
Eno Sarris: LOL. Okay, yeah my bad. Somewhere between Rizzo and Butler and freeman. Sorry had to look.
1:12
Comment From Terrible Ted
I just googled tulip glass…is this the glass I should buy to drink beer out of or do different glasses compliment different beers?
1:12
Eno Sarris: There’s a guide on Beer Advocate.
1:13
Comment From Tomme
You giving up on Bauer? Can he figure it out in 2014 and be a #3 or #4?
1:13
Eno Sarris: I have not given up on him. I still have some hope. Dunno what’s happened, and yeah you gotta revise hopes down to #4 maybe.
1:13
Comment From Spencer
What do you expect from Paxton next year?
1:13
Eno Sarris: He must have made a change. His velocity is up big time, and he was supposed to be a reliever, and now he’s starting and has been good for a while. I need to know what happened.
1:14
Comment From Tomme
Do you think Beachy returns to a top 25 pitcher next year?
1:14
Eno Sarris: No, he’s a fantasy number three.
1:14
Comment From Doc
I just woke up in 2015. Who’s the best ss in baseball?
1:14
Eno Sarris: Tulo
1:14
Comment From tylersnotes
if angels finish as far out of the WC as baltimore, does mike trout get as many mvp votes as chris davis?
1:14
Eno Sarris: Hah. Of course not because HOMERZZZZZ
1:15
Comment From Doc
3 year keeper league. Lineup needs 2 Catchers so good ones are scarce. Have to decide between keeping Ramos or Gerritt Cole.
1:16
Eno Sarris: I almost always like keeping the position player over the pitcher, but you guys are testing me. I like Cole there. I guess the two-catcher thing is interesting, but there seem like there are a lot of .275/15-20 HR catchers.
1:16
Comment From person hscer
The Nats have given 585 PA to Tracy, Lombardozzi, and Moore. the best wOBA in the bunch: Lombardozzi’s .266. why.
1:16
Eno Sarris: Cause Danny Espinosa Average? To be fair, Espy was pretty bad this year.
1:16
Comment From thomas
Fantasy championship on the line: Do I start CC, McAllister, Gee, Kluber, Porcello, all of whom have favorable matchups? Assuming I need to, that is.
1:16
Eno Sarris: Sure. Mcallister is the worst pitcher of the group though.
1:16
Comment From juan pierres mustache
How many WAR is Bauer’s rap career worth, though? He has many skills, like how Zobrist can play all the positions
1:17
Eno Sarris: -5
1:17
Comment From person hscer
Verlander panic with 4.5 WAR (11th) – issues yes but maybe this is like the “what if Trout has a 4-5 WAR season” thing
1:17
Eno Sarris: Good point! I think he’s been better than the hyperbole has had it.
1:18
Comment From JT
WAIT? Did you just say Belt and Rizzo will be back-to-back in your 1B rankings? SAVE ME JEEBUS
1:18
Eno Sarris: I’ll have Rizzo ahead still.
1:18
Comment From JT
Do you have Skaggs’s upside diminished after this year?
1:19
Eno Sarris: He won’t give up homers like this, but I never liked him. 89 mph fastball with the curveball? In order to really make a primarily fb/cb thing work, you need to throw the FB high. If you throw the FB high and you have an 89 mph fastball, your name is Yusmeiro Petit or Barry Zito.
1:19
Comment From Scott
Best chance of contributing in 2014? Ranaudo, Stephenson, Owens, AJCole
1:19
Eno Sarris: Owens.
1:20
Comment From person hscer
Lombo’s the only one who took time away from Espi though
1:20
Eno Sarris: The rest were Zimm and Harper injuries?
1:20
Comment From @TheREALMarthaStewart
Wait, there’s another Spencer in here? What the hell? Looks like I’ll have to use my real name.
1:20
Eno Sarris: Oh no let’s not do this again.
1:20
Comment From BentheHen
any relievers out there not getting saves now, who you expect to get saves next year? stashing in my dynasty format…
1:21
Eno Sarris: Cody Allen. Brad Boxberger? It’s always a crapshoot with relievers. Look for fun young guys behind bad old ones. Strop I guess.
1:21
Comment From Cold Mug?
What do you think about ice cold beer mugs? I love them, but I am from the southern US. Last year, when I was in London, they did not serve their beers in cold mugs which made me think that they might know what they are doing. Is it just personal preference or is there something to one or the other?
1:21
Eno Sarris: Taste is inversely related to temperature. The Brits like warm beer because there’s more taste. I like my beer cold for the most part, but I don’t do the frosted mug, just keep my beer cold.
1:22
Comment From Jman
How many HR and RBI for Joey Votto in 2014?
1:22
Eno Sarris: 25 and 90
1:22
Comment From Spencer
Rather keep one of these young arms, Wacha, Ventura, or Salazar?
1:22
Eno Sarris: Danny boy
1:22
Comment From Tristan
I am a health nut who just found out that I have to go gluten free as well. Are there any low cal gluten free beers out there? Or do I have to resort to sheepishly drinking Woodchuck Cider when no one is home.
1:22
Eno Sarris: Haven’t had a great cider or gluten free. Still looking.
1:22
Comment From @TheREALMarthaStewart
In a weekly NL league for the ‘chip, start Stults? 2 starts vs. ARI and @SF…
1:23
Eno Sarris: AT least AZ is at home in SD. It’s risky but you in NL-only. I do it.
1:23
Comment From LarryA
Sometimes it takes not owning a player (like Rizzo) to step back and properly evaluate. We all over-evaluate our own guys
1:23
Eno Sarris: I have 15 leagues. I own everybody.
1:23
Comment From JT
Oh, that’s depressing about Skaggs. Turf him as soon as I’ve added him in a dynasty?
1:24
Eno Sarris: There’s potential for a rebuilding of value early next year, but if he built value, I’d trade.
1:24
Comment From Ranking K-BB
Last week you mentioned that K-BB was better than K/BB. However, I can easily find rankings on K/BB but not K-BB. Do you know of a site that ranks K-BB?
1:24
Eno Sarris: It’s fairly easy to export the leaderboard with K% and BB% and then do an extra column in excel. It’s also something I’m lobbying for.
1:25
Comment From KJ
US South = hot = need to take an extra step to keep beer chilly longer? just a guess
1:25
Eno Sarris: Good point, and like i said, I’d rather have cold beer.
1:25
Comment From juan pierres mustache
Omission was gluten free and kind of a beer, i guess. that’s as much as I can say for it
1:25
Comment From person hscer
As John Pinette says about gluten free things, they need gluten.
1:25
Comment From saskatunes
Eno, if you want to do a swap I will get you some good cider. Downeast Cider from MA… takes like actual apple cider and not apple water.
1:25
Comment From Bruce
Canada has some amazing Ciders.
1:25
Comment From Haymaker
Is beergraphs going to have any representation at GABF in Denver next month? Meetup planned?
1:26
Eno Sarris: I’ll ask my guys in the beer chat tomorrow at BeerGraphs.
1:26
Comment From tylersnotes
impossible to get outside of the philly metro area, but the Commonwealth Ciders (Traditional, Ginger, and Raspberry) are quite good. The ginger, especially, is like a really good ginger beer but actually alcoholic.
1:26
Comment From LarryA
If you had to pick one- Paxton home to The Bruce Chen next week. Who are you starting?
1:26
Eno Sarris: Isn’t Paxton at home v DET? Then Chen.
1:26
Comment From person hscer
Everybody? I’m sure you can think of someone (200+ PA) you own in 0/15
1:26
Eno Sarris: Juan Uribe?
1:26
Comment From BentheHen
if chris davis reverts to his floor next year (.240 ba, 30 hr, 90rbi), what do you see as a fair auction value for that level of production?
1:28
Eno Sarris: well if that’s his floor, you’d still have to pay for his ceiling, and I actually think his floor has a couple more homers. .240/35/95… I’d pay $25-30 for that. Third round prices. Still has power. And actually, I don’t own Chris Davis once, so there’s that. And I won’t next year either, I’m guessing, because I won’t pay first-round prices.
1:28
Comment From saskatunes
also, to Tristan, look up Green’s for GF beer. They have pretty tasty belgians.
1:28
Comment From Bruce
Hector Santiago a decent breakout pick for next year? 175 IP, 150Ks, 3.70/1.25?
1:29
Eno Sarris: yeah but I don’t love his stuff. the screwball is actually really meh. But you picked non-agressive numbers, so they’re okay.
1:29
Comment From person hscer
You have Friday chats at beergraphs? Is baseball allowed seeing as you allow beer for baseball
1:29
Eno Sarris: They’re more all questions answered threads. And there isn’t as much baseball.
1:30
Comment From Guest
aside from a fastball obviously, what pitches should ever pitcher learn to throw? change and curve?
1:30
Eno Sarris: I think the change. The curve/slider continuum is all just varying degrees of ‘snap’ and shoulder stress. A change, a sinker, a four-seamer, and you’ve already got yourself a platoon-busting arsenal.
1:31
Comment From @TheREALMarthaStewart
I apologize, I should’ve included this before, but 2 start Stults or one start Nolasco @SF? W/L are (unfortunately) a pretty big deal in this league.
1:31
Eno Sarris: Stults will get you more innings, but I’m guessing he’ll go 0-1 in those two tilts. Given that’s the worst case scenario for Nolasco, I might go Nolasco.
1:31
Comment From Dead Horse
In 2014, Belt is a top __ 1B in an OBP/SLG league
1:32
Eno Sarris: I’d push him up to top eight or so. Most of the 1Bs have good OBP, but he could push ahead of Billy Butler and Allen Craig types.
1:32
Comment From Terrible Ted

Taking the fun out of horse breeding.

1:32
Eno Sarris: Oh god no why did I
1:32
Comment From Scott
Does Singleton start at 1B for Houston next year?
1:32
Eno Sarris: For at least two months. I think they’ll do the audition thing again next year.
1:33
Comment From Plagarist
do you ever try to talk to personnel rather than players, e.g. managers/coaches/execs? it seems like most of your conversations are with players, but i think hearing a perspective from a pitching coach could be really interesting.
1:34
Eno Sarris: It’s actually harder. I got Matt Williams for this thing I’m doing, but they’re working! Like, they spend the time in the clubhouse getting video ready for hitters and pitchers, organizing things, in the hitting cage, talking to players. The players themselves spend more time sitting by lockers. Williams eve said to me “I’m working, not really” when I asked for time, but when he realized I wanted to talk about his playing days, he lit up for a bit, gave me a few minutes.
1:34
Comment From Mojo
Eaton a potential keeper in 10-team keep-six? Cost to keep is round drafted, so he’d cost a last rounder in our league.
1:35
Eno Sarris: With that added piece of information, maybe. But he’s a borderline ten-teamer if he hits the bottom end of projections and goes .280 in a batting average league with 10 homers and 20 steals. That’s not even a ten teamer.
1:35
Comment From Bruce
Realistically, do you expect Nova to have a better season in 2014 than CC? Im guessing CC will still cost much more in auctions, right?
1:35
Eno Sarris: Given respective prices, I could see Nova being a better value, yes. He made some real strides this year with his pitching mix.
1:36
Comment From Todd
How is WARs positional adjustment for catchers decided? It would seem like there isn’t much of a way to compare their performance at other positions and vice versa.
1:36
Eno Sarris: We don’t compare a single catcher’s performance at other positions. We just look at how catchers perform offensively and then give them whatever value bonus we need to put them on equal footing with other positions.
1:37
Comment From TB
Seems to happen every couple of years, someone no one would expect hits 50 homers, i.e. Bautista. How long does Davis keep hitting home runs?
1:37
Eno Sarris: He has power, so he’ll keep hitting them, but at this level? I don’t think so, just look at Bautista. Also, since he’s got a lot of whiff in his game, I think they’ll re-find some holes where he can be pitched to.
1:38
Comment From Ray
How many hours a week do you spend managing your fantasy teams during baseball season?
1:38
Eno Sarris: 15-20? Maybe only 15. It is part of my job.
1:38
Comment From Frank
Any chance Brandon Gomes is TB’s next closer? Seems to have enough velo and strikeouts?
1:39
Eno Sarris: yeah but McGee has been the guy for so long. I’ll think they’ll sign a veteran and let them all scrum it out like they usually do.
1:39
Comment From Ronald
Inevitable Hos question: Hosmer will be a top __ 1B next year?
1:39
Eno Sarris: He’s basically Belt with less power, IMO. So same spot. I’ll really have to eye those guys.
1:40
Eno Sarris: Hey guys!
1:40
Eno Sarris: Thanks for stopping by!
1:40
Eno Sarris: Had fun today.
1:40
Comment From juan pierres mustache
stay classy, tall man.



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Graphs: Baseball, Roto, Beer, brats (OK, no graphs for that...yet), repeat. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris.


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