Eno Sarris Winter Meetings Chat 12/12/13

11:47
Eno Sarris: Will be here in 15!

11:59
Eno Sarris: Lyrics of the day… next line describes my next move

I wasn’t always cargo
I was once kind of my own

I guess I’ll pack up my mind
It took so much effort
Not to make an effort
Oh, what a flawless design

It was always worth it
That’s the part I seem to hide
And the busy ant empire
Put all your clothes inside

11:59
Comment From Staypufft
Always nice of you to show up 13 minutes early to let us know you’ll be 2 minutes late.

11:59
Eno Sarris: And then I throw a curveball and show up a minute early!

11:59
Comment From Carls Golf Bag
Eno!!!!!

11:59
Eno Sarris: Just a bunch of excited balls.

12:00
Comment From juan pierres mustache
What’s been the most exciting moment of the meetings so far? Boras presser or the agent fistfight?

12:01
Eno Sarris: personally, the most exciting moment for me was talking to Bill James and Rob Neyer about ballparks, cities, and old television shows. And baseball people about Tyler Skaggs, that was fun too. But between those two, I’ll take the fights. I walked away from the Boras scrum.

12:01
Comment From 2ndHS
You’re Doug Melvin. Do you trade for Ike Davis or sign James Loney? What do you give up for Davis?

12:02
Eno Sarris: Piece going up at one about Ike’s trade value, so don’t want to spoil that too bad, but it looks like it will be a mediocre pitcher. I suppose I might do that if I was Milwaukee, but mediocre guys sometime turn into good ones, and really it seems like Milwaukee should be keeping all their pitchers just in case they have something. I think Loney is the way to go, as long as it’s something like 3/27, maybe 30 at most.

12:02
Comment From A Guy
Hey Eno, so ultimately do you think Xander Bogaerts will be fantasy relevant this year or do the BoSox pick up Drew for another year? Trying to decide on a last keeper position for our H2H points league between XB and Segura at SS. I’m leaning Segura right now just based knowing he’ll play everyday and be a SS. Thoughts? And thanks for your work! Always enjoy your chats.

12:03
Eno Sarris: Even if they pick up Drew — I think they might — there’s the chance that WM loses hi job to XB. But in this case, take Segura, it’s a sure thing, relatively, at a tough position.

12:03
Comment From Ellis
Does the arrival of Logan Morrison mean Smoak will go with Ackley & Paxton for Price? or is this “M’s Stockpile 1B/DHs: Part II” as many would suggest?

12:04
Eno Sarris: Just not sure who can play the outfield. Maybe Corey Hart, if he’s healthy, can do it, but I thought most people agreed that he was a first baseman at this point. Nobody here thought Logan Morrison could play the outfield after his ankle problem. So there’s a mystery there.

12:04
Comment From Fish
Central Florida is pretty much the worst. I feel bad for you.

12:05
Eno Sarris: First night, BBQ joint, was all like, oh yeah I remember Orlando. Second night, Peruvian chicken and I thought okay, something good is happening even if it comes with too-sweet too-weak Sangria. Last night, went to the Ravenous Pig, food was excellent, beer was good, and I thought okay this is doable. STILL NO JAI ALAI.

12:05
Comment From Brian
Thanks for chatting, Eno! What are your concerns (if any) about how MLB will go about eliminating home plate collisions? I think it’s a great idea in theory, but it sounds like there could be a lot of loopholes or grey areas.

12:06
Eno Sarris: I’m sure they can figure out the details and I’d rather protect the catchers. I don’t really watch baseball for the violence. I can watch boxing for that (and feel guilty as I bob and weave). They figured out second base collisions without breaking the game, they can do it at home too.

12:06
Comment From Marc
What on earth is Baltimore doing? (or not doing…)

12:07
Eno Sarris: Looks like Balfour today? Not sure there’s a signing that I thought they really needed to jump on, other than perhaps Beltran. Their needs might need to come from within. Top-end starting pitching is too expensive for them, and they have two guys that could be that for them in the next few years. I love Gausman.

12:07
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
which is a more unfavorable run environment: AL West parks as a division or NL West parks as a division?

12:08
Eno Sarris: We should look into this, but you’re absolutely right that it’s close. For every SafeCo there’s a PetCo.

12:08
Comment From Fish
So, I’m happy Trumbo is in AZ now, but it causes me problems. I now have Goldy, Hill and Trumbo as starters, which is way too many on the same team, right? Move Hill?

12:08
Eno Sarris: H2H maybe there’s a slight problem there, would suck if they were in PetCo during your finals or something. In roto, not at all a problem.

12:08
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
more value in 2014: Morse or Hart?

12:09
Eno Sarris: If we’re talking real-life value, I’m taking Hart. More patience. More upside for defense if healthy. But in fantasy? Yeesh. Both are iffy mixed league fliers… if Morse falters, Blanco is okay as a starter v RHP, and Seattle has the aforementioned glut in the COF/1B/DH situation.

12:09
Comment From Guest
Samardzija’s stats aren’t that great. How about a deal along the lines of Anthony Gose, Kyle Drabek and a reliever.

12:10
Eno Sarris: I love Samardzija and that’s not enough.

12:10
Comment From Dave
How will Nolan Arenado do in 2014? Offensive uptick, small defensive regression?

12:10
Eno Sarris: Sure. .280/20 is in his reach, and peak I think he can push that to .300/25. Defense steady in early career.

12:10
Comment From Dave
Over/Under: Kolten Wong 400PA .265/10/20

12:10
Eno Sarris: Over across the line, but not by much. by one or two in each cat.

12:11
Comment From Doctor Met
Hopefully by the time you’re back we can get some decent RP back for Ike already!

12:11
Eno Sarris: I break this down further and I guess that’s the market return for him, but man that’s a depressing sentence.

12:11
Comment From Lenard
Agent fistfight?1?!

12:12
Eno Sarris: Seriously. But more fun was walking down memory lane and remembering that Tomo Ohka (now a knuckleballer in Toronto) once fought teammate Sunny Kim at the ballpark and in the team hotel and nobody would talk about why.

12:12
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
how much does the Eaton trade impact De Aza’s playing time in 2014?

12:12
Eno Sarris: Hahn said Eaton is his CF, DeAza to the corner, he’ll mix and match with him and Viciedo, but he’ll also continue to take calls on his outfielders. So, yeah, badly.

12:12
Comment From Jon (DC)
Tom Boswell had an article in the WP today about the importance of bench players and how they get significantly more AB’s then the 3-4-5 hitters on any team. His implication was that a good bench is an undervalued market asset. Do you think he’s right and how important is a good bench to a MLB team?

12:13
Eno Sarris: I’m trying to systematically answer this question this offseason. My idea is to correlate WAR “slots” on a team to winning percentage. Is WAR from your 1-5 slots significantly more important than 10-13? 15-20?

12:14
Comment From John H.
How do you project Corey Hart in Seattle? I’ve seen the full spectrum.

12:14
Eno Sarris: Time to just put a number on it, huh? Okay. .265 18 in a full season? with decent OBP.

12:14
Comment From Ajas Fahtid
What is the buzz on J-Z as an agent and do people feel that he indeed got top dollar for Cano?

12:15
Eno Sarris: He got a lot of money for Cano, but what I’ve heard more often is that it wasn’t just J-Z, it was an entire agency.

12:15
Comment From Jacquomini
Is there ANY way to get a bottle of Zombie Dust to Washington state? I’m itching to try it. Would make a trade if there was someone who wanted to try weird Elysian beers!

12:15
Comment From LarryA
Dont even bother showing your face around here if you still havent had any Jai Alai

12:15
Comment From Marty
Winter Meetings in my head: bunch of GMs driving around a hotel complex on golf carts eating dinner at 4:30.

12:16
Eno Sarris: Well… that last one wasn’t crazy, but mostly the GMs just sit in their suites with computers and talk like crazy, don’t leave, order room service… at 4:30.

12:16
Comment From Vince
Does Dave Dombrowski look bat-poop crazy in person?

12:16
Eno Sarris: Wore an Athletics-green tie in Oakland when they clinched.

12:16
Comment From Guest
Best 1B option for Pirates? Loney? Ike? Chavy? Smoak?

12:16
Eno Sarris: Loney or Ike fit well because they have Gaby. Whatever costs less I guess.

12:16
Comment From Bill
Do you feel like Fangraphs is treated with a similar amount of respect and access as more traditional media outlets? Or do a lot of folks treat you differently because Fangraphs is “just a website”?

12:17
Eno Sarris: This event is actually a fun one for us. Baseball people know and love us for the most part. Lots of knowing grins. At the park… sometimes. Just gotta keep stepping out there and showing we’re professionals.

12:17
Comment From John H.
Is Brandon Phillips doomed this yr? Do I try and move him in a dynasty league??

12:17
Eno Sarris: I think his value is low because his team is shopping him. Keep him, hope for a normal start to the season, and then shop him quietly.

12:18
Comment From Marty
If/when ARod goes on his 100 game vacation, who is going to play third for the Yankees?

12:18
Eno Sarris: Nunez if Jeets is healthy, right? Infante could mean some sort of platoon with Kelly Johnson.

12:19
Comment From John H.
Does Jackie Bradley Jr have any fantasy relevance in Boston?

12:19
Eno Sarris: With Victorino another year older, and Daniel Nava currently slated in the outfield, yes. I think there’s a window for him. More likely in OBP leagues.

12:19
Comment From Marty
What exactly does a baseball physical entail? If Bartolo Colon went to a normal doctor, he’d probably load him up with cholesterol meds and tell him to do some exercise before he ends up with diabetes!

12:19
Eno Sarris: YES BUT HOW’S THE ARM

12:20
Comment From Guest
Are the Indians going to do anything? Did they just go to Orlando to sight see? The rumblings about Benoit and Balfour are bogus as there is no way they spend that on a reliever.

12:20
Eno Sarris: They gotta sign a starter, don’t they?

12:20
Comment From NFL Fan
I’M SICK OF THE NANCY-ING OF SPORTS! BASEBALL SHOULD HAVE COLLISIONS AT EVERY BASE!

12:20
Eno Sarris: ON THE MOUND

12:20
Comment From LarryA
Otto league, are ether Santiago or Morton worth 3$ as a keeper?

12:21
Eno Sarris: I’m staring a hole into Morton. At 93mph, yes. At 90mph, the platoon splits just get bad. Santiago I hate… but in Anaheim? If you’re competitive, $3 won’t kill you, and it’s the price of the lottery. They’d go for that in the auction.

12:21
Comment From Shark Mapiro
Is Shin Soo Choo really going to get 7 years? How many years does he have left not having to be blatantly platooned?

12:22
Eno Sarris: That, and some evidence of declining athleticism, was definitely a problem for me. As soon as I heard 6/120 and 7/whatever, I got much less interested in him.

12:22
Comment From Monroe
Shouldn’t someone else be cleaning up Zduriencik’s mess? clearly he hasn’t learned anything from his many mistakes.

12:22
Eno Sarris: Kinda surprised he’s still there. If this iteration doesn’t work… much more work for the next guy.

12:22
Comment From Justin
What would the Yankees realistically have to give up to snag Espinosa?

12:22
Eno Sarris: Baga Bahls

12:23
Comment From Staypufft
I found the Brewers’ Rule 5 pick to be really interesting. Do you think they’ll let him take his bumps like the Twins did with Santana in 2000 or try to swing a trade? (pretty similar picks I think, Santana barely had a longer track record than Wang does, not that I expect Wang to live up to that similarity at all).

12:23
Eno Sarris: Just hide him in the bullpen/ swing him some, see if they have something. Final pitcher type deal. Every once in a while that turns into something.

12:23
Comment From Justin
Do you have a favorite, under the radar low level prospect?

12:23
Eno Sarris: Mookie Betts.

12:24
Comment From PNT
What is Morse worth in Otto points league? Looks like there will be slim pickings in the draft.

12:24
Eno Sarris: I don’t think he’s more than a one or two dollar player. Real risk of heavy platooning.

12:24
Comment From Robert
Biggest move Amaro could make right now to improve long term? Moving Lee and Paps?

12:24
Eno Sarris: Especially if Lee’s only pitching one more year, yes.

12:24
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
any sense on how soon we will see Japhet Amador get a shot at 1B/DH w/ HOU?

12:24
Eno Sarris: He’s so huge. He was fun to watch in Arizona. I’m not sure he’ll be a big leaguer.

12:25
Comment From A. Lane
When looking at whiff rates on breaking pitches, where so you draw the line between pedestrian/good/elite?

12:25
Eno Sarris: 15% is about average on changeups, and that number works okay on sliders. Elite elite is over 25%. Good can be 17,18% plus.

12:25
Comment From Bruce
Feliz over Soria as closer in Texas?

12:25
Eno Sarris: Soria, Feliz, Frasor… that’s a grab bag we’ll have to watch in spring.

12:26
Comment From Vic
Better career, Betts or Brad Miller?

12:26
Eno Sarris: Miller plays shortstop so that’ll help a lot. But scouts told me they think Betts can play short or CF, and he might have to to get to Boston. It’s always safer to go with the guy who actually has done things in the bigs… or Double-A at least.

12:26
Comment From Dan
Do you think the Colon signing was a good deal?

12:27
Eno Sarris: Wrote a whole piece on it.. basically I hated it at first for all the risk in it, but it’s a market-rate deal and it’s marginally cheaper than a couple of other guys. But I’d rather have ponied up a few bucks for Hudson, really.

12:27
Comment From bob
Morse to the Giants? WTF? Why do they hate Belt?

12:27
Eno Sarris: Morse is for left field. Belt will play every day, and the season rests on his and Pablo’s shoulders much more than what happens in LF.

12:27
Comment From Dan
Any clue what SS are out that on the trade market? Who would you target if you were the Mets?

12:28
Eno Sarris: I mean, maybe someone like Ahmed in Arizona? Since they love Didi so much?

12:28
Comment From drew
I have just about given up on trading Greinke ($34) & M Moore ($23) in my ottoneu pts league. Is a trade even realistic or should I just cut ’em?

12:28
Eno Sarris: If you’re competitive, keep em another year. Those are fine prices, everyone just thinks they’re sell-highs.

12:28
Comment From LarryA
Re: Lance Lynn. I know you are down on him due to his platoon problems, but they dont really show in his overall stats. 2 straight years of sub 3.5 FIP and close to 9K/9. Are you saying its going to get worse?

12:29
Eno Sarris: Yeah look at the platoon splits and the rumors… home park and league helps make it all look better, though, and while those don’t change, I suppose he’s a decent back-end guy.

12:29
Comment From JTT
Are we ever going to see a Yankees/Braves type string of playoff runs ever again? Or has baseball drifted into the competitive window then rebuild philosphy forever

12:30
Eno Sarris: Oakland? New York missed the playoffs in two of last 19 years! Detroit? We’re still seeing some good long-term competitive teams.

12:30
Comment From ben jonson
segura….sure thing….did you know that was a pun?

12:30
Eno Sarris: I’m supposed to learn Spanish this offseason lol.

12:30
Comment From Razor
Need to up your game if you’re trying to get a Zombie Dust, Jacquomini. Elysian won’t cut it- you’d need 3 space dusts to get 1 ZD, according to BAR.

12:30
Comment From Fish
How amazing would it be if Choo wound up in Detroit? I drool at a Choo/Rajai fantasy platoon.

12:30
Comment From Dan
Had my first Breakfast Stout yesterday, Eno. It was Founder’s, and it was pretty good. However, I’d like to find something similar with slightly less bitterness/less coffee flavor. What should I be looking for? Some sort of Milk Stout?

12:30
Eno Sarris: Yes. Yes is the answer to that interlude.

12:30
Comment From Steve 1
30 million for James Loney! Glad my team doesn’t need a 1B

12:31
Eno Sarris: 1.5 wins costs about $10 million at this point.

12:31
Comment From Doug
The Cubs rebuild is an “all day sucker”. Calculated choice of words? Or unintentionally poor selection of nouns?

12:31
Eno Sarris: I like what they are doing!

12:31
Comment From Guest
with their track record of fixing burnette and lirano, can the pirates fix volquez or are they finally pushing it??

12:32
Eno Sarris: I’m so excited to see Volquez’ walk rate this year. Honestly. With Martin, Stewart behind the plate… I don’t necessarily think he’s a great mixed league fantasy guy, or will turn into Liriano, but this has to be about the best case scenario for him.

12:32
Comment From Guest
Modest Mouse, Florida! Clever clever

12:32
Comment From juan pierres mustache
wearing pajama pants under your work clothes is the new market inefficiency

12:32
Comment From Meano Eno
ENOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

12:32
Comment From Joe
Dee Gordon for Justin Maxwell means that Dodgers are serious about moving Kemp or Ethier, right? Personally, I do not see the motivation for letting Kemp go at his lowest possible value. Potential scenario: Ethier gets moved and they play Maxwell until Kemp returns (not ready for spring training is word) or both play in a platoon?

12:34
Eno Sarris: Well Ethier does need a platoon mate and Hairston just retired… I wouldn’t read too much into this. Trading Kemp is impossible because they need a star there anyway, there isn’t that kind of upside available in trade, and they’d have to kick in $30-40m to really make it worthwhile, and I doubt they do that.

12:34
Comment From Razor
What should the Brewers do at first base? At this point, they should just wait and see who’s available in January/February, right? I have a feeling they’re going to get desperate and overpay Loney.

12:34
Eno Sarris: Khris Davis.

12:34
Comment From Vic
Why wouldn’t the Orioles try and trade for ThatdudeBP?

12:34
Eno Sarris: They love Schoop and now have Weeks to goose him.

12:34
Comment From Robinson Canyes
Do you think the lack of O’s movement in the OF is because of faith in Henry Urrutia? And would said faith be misplaced? Am I just vainly rationalizing dull management?

12:35
Eno Sarris: Well he’s probably their DH just based on defensive skills, but he looks like he can make a lot of contact, power tbd.

12:35
Comment From Evan
Who is more likely to be on a major league roster on opening day, Michael Pineda or Jesus Montero?

12:35
Eno Sarris: Pineda. Montero’s embattled GM already said the dude is on the outside looking in.

12:35
Comment From Guest
if the Choo fits… give it 7 years

12:35
Comment From Team Theo
Expectations for Bryce Harper in 2014?

12:35
Eno Sarris: A little bit better than the projections.

12:36
Comment From cthabeerman
Everyone seems to think Price is the premier Ray leaving Tampa, but Zobrist only has two more years of control as well. What’s the chances someone pulls him from the Rays, and what would that package look like?

12:36
Eno Sarris: They have tons of pitchers, they sorta need Zobrist around the diamond. I think Price trade probability is around 75%, Zob around 25%

12:36
Comment From Maldives
Padres Rotation with JJ on board? chance to be decent?

12:37
Eno Sarris: I’m excited to see Luebke, Cashner and JJ, yes. They could be realy good, and even the guys behind them are interesting.

12:37
Comment From Dan
Why are the Mets so intent on trading Davis over Duda?

12:37
Eno Sarris: Because Duda has no trade value at all.

12:37
Comment From Steve 1
If you see any Westbrook beers from South Carolina, GET THEM. Their gose and citrus ninja IPA are top tier.

12:37
Eno Sarris: All I’ve had is Terrapin MooHoo, Racer 5, and the local Cask & Larder.

12:37
Comment From Guest
top 5 available OF?

12:39
Eno Sarris: Choo, obviously, and then it’s something like… Delmon Young, Brennan Boesch, Jeff Baker, Jason Kubel and … Chris Coghlan. LOLz

12:39
Comment From JohnnyV
Otto Points which side do you like $19 Scherzer and $44 Cano for $20 Chis Davis and $34 Darvish

12:40
Eno Sarris: Davis Darvish, because even though I think the K% will rise for Crush, I think he’ll keep some BB% gains. Darvish is sexy. I’m worried about his health long term though.

12:40
Comment From Vic
Do you think Storen will be a team’s closer in 2014? 2015?

12:40
Eno Sarris: Not in 2014, but no I don’t think he’s done closing.

12:41
Comment From KB
Does Carter get enough AB in Houston this year to remain relevant? I’d be fine w/ a repeat of last season, but not sure if Houston will accept another year of his strikeouts.

12:41
Eno Sarris: I think, from how I’ve heard Houston people talking about him, he’ll get almost a full workload this year.

12:41
Comment From Bryan
Should the Blue Jays sign Ubaldo?

12:42
Eno Sarris: Was their pick protected? I don’t think it is…. Ubaldo, money and a pick… and it’s not like he’s the healthiest guy. Kinda feel like Cleveland is best place for Ubaldo…

12:42
Comment From Officer Farva
since you love Betts….. does A) his bat play up at 3rd b) he harness his glove and play short….. is he going to be in Portland this year (AA)? i’ll scout him… i mean go watch him if he’s there :)

12:43
Eno Sarris: Pretty sure he’ll start in Double-A or get there quickly. The AFL was about giving him a preview of the high minors, IMO. Where he plays will be super interesting. Yes go watch. He has live hands, power, a great plate approach, smiles, and seems to like what he’s doing.

12:43
Comment From jfk
i think based on the WAR projections for their key players the Mets can be an 80-85 win team. thoughts?

12:43
Eno Sarris: I’d feel better about those numbers with Harvey back, but sure, I see them as over .500 now.

12:43
Comment From Seymour
u see the Colon signing as part of a bigger plan to create a surplus and deal a SPer? Mets have added 1 position player under 30 this winter – Brandon Allen. that’s it. There is still much work to do.

12:44
Eno Sarris: Plan seems to be pointing at 2014+. Any piece they get this year is just a stab at either value in 2014 or surplus value in 2013 they can trade for help in 2014-2015.

12:44
Comment From Tom
Would you rather keep 2pitchers Kershaw, Scherzer in a keep 5 when your position players are only so/so….(Gomez, Puig, Pujols, Upton, Segura)?

12:45
Eno Sarris: Swing a trade. Gotta. Gomez, Puig, Upton, Segura and Kershaw is what I’d do now. So Scherzer plus Upton or Gomez for a top-three OF.

12:45
Comment From Evan
To Jacquomini-I live in Indiana and it’s nearly impossible to get a bottle of Zombie Dust here. It has to be pre-ordered at the liquor stores months in advance…Good Luck

12:45
Comment From Officer Farva
There be pitchin Voodoo with them there Pirates!

12:45
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
let us hope the ban on home plate collisions leads to more plays like this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-b22rjX2RGc

12:46
Comment From PNT
How long until Tommy La Stella unseats Uggla?

12:46
Eno Sarris: This spring maybe. Like he’s that ready and the team seems that sour on Uggla.

12:46
Comment From Razor
Prove you’re at the winter meetings… ask the next person that walks by what they think of the Cano deal and report back their response.

12:47
Eno Sarris: I can do better. See the guy making a silly face in this Trent Rosecrans Winter Meetings Panorama? http://t.co/nFSajLW0Gc

12:47
Comment From Jess
Can David Robertson be a successful closer? People tell me he throws too many pitches.

12:47
Eno Sarris: That makes no sense to me!

12:47
Eno Sarris: (so yes I do think he can)

12:47
Comment From juan pierres mustache
re: milk stouts, the answer is LH Nitro Milk Stout. If we kept track of what beer gets the most mentions in this chat it’d be a tossup between that and Double Jack I bet

12:47
Comment From bob
I had some Biere de Champagne brewed in France last week. It confused the hell out of me. It kind of tasted like a soft drink with alcohol in it. Do you have any experience with this style?

12:47
Eno Sarris: yes and no thanks. GIVE ME DOUBLE JACK OR LH NITRO.

12:48
Comment From Fish
Can we just take a minute to consider that Elysian is probably an extremely overrated brewery? And I live here and drink Elysian all the time. It goes Space Dust……that’s it.

12:48
Eno Sarris: Yes but how do we figure this out in the numbers? I’ve never had.

12:48
Comment From TC
Is it advisable that the Jays trade Rasmus now? Has his value peaked or is he just reaching his potential?

12:48
Eno Sarris: I think it’s good to try. Dunno if it’ll work though.

12:49
Comment From Seymour
Stop. Ethier does not need a platoon mate.

12:49
Eno Sarris: Career 76 wRC+ against lefties with a .115 ISO, 6% walk rate and a normal BABIP.

12:50
Comment From hooha
Fausto at 1/4.5 versus colon at 2/20?

12:50
Eno Sarris: Well with the point being 2014, the only problem with that Fausto deal is it doesn’t help later.

12:50
Comment From Pat
Do you think the Mets could get in on Nick Franklin if the Mariners decide to move him? Maybe him for Dillon Gee?

12:51
Eno Sarris: I haven’t heard a lot of love for Nick Franklin here. But Gee’s pretty good, I’d like him if they could spend less to get him.

12:51
Comment From Pirates Hurdles
What is the motivation to sign Loney for 3 years at 1.5 wins/per if the Bucs have Gaby/Lambo?

12:52
Eno Sarris: Andrew Lambo has 33 MLB plate appearances and many flaws. The Pirates are a contending team.

12:52
Comment From Pork Sale
Yes/no Cardinals questions

12:52
Comment From Guest
Alesmith IPA vs. Pliny the Older,,,?

12:52
Eno Sarris: AleSmith.

12:52
Comment From ethan
Slowest winter meetings ever?

12:52
Eno Sarris: it all happened last week!

12:52
Comment From Pat
Do you think the Mets could possibly get Huk Ju Lee from the Rays? Maybe in the Ike trade?

12:52
Eno Sarris: This is one I love. Dunno if it’s possible. Rays are kinda hard to deal with and Lee was supposed to be the future.

12:53
Comment From Guest
scherzer and cano

12:53
Eno Sarris: yeah that was a hard one for me. I like Scherzer’s health going forward better than Yu (wow that’s kind of crazy, considering what people used to say about Max), and Cano plays the MI.

12:53
Comment From dude
Eno, what have you learned from attending the winter meetings?

12:54
Eno Sarris: Tyler Skaggs may not be as bad as I thought. If he can fix the mechanics and get back up to 92 or so, he’ll be okay, his changeup is better than Corbin’s.

12:54
Eno Sarris: Rick Hahn is a ninja.

12:55
Eno Sarris: Tyler Skaggs might not be as bad as I thought. If he can get the mechanics fixed, he could be up to 92ish and has a better change piece than Corbin.

12:55
Eno Sarris: Arbitration is not as terrible a process as I thought it was and it’s super interesting.

12:55
Comment From Chicago Mark
Hello Eno, Have you started to put together any schedule for travel during the season? Chicago?

12:55
Eno Sarris: Chicago will always be on the itinerary.

12:56
Comment From Froglegs Jackson
Just got offered Aoki for Eaton in an OBP dynasty. Thoughts?

12:56
Eno Sarris: I’d rather have Eaton because of age and upside.

12:56
Comment From Pat
Keeper league – have Goldschmidt (26) and Rosario (24) as keepers. Who should I pair them with – Ortiz (9th), Marte (17th), Gray or Cingrani (27th)?

12:57
Eno Sarris: How many can you choose? Marte is obvious to me. Between the pitchers… Gray. He doesn’t have to have platoon problems with a big curveball.

12:57
Comment From Gabe
Why don’t you like tripels? :(

12:57
Eno Sarris: I’m a bad person. They taste boozy and sweet to me.

12:57
Comment From Chicago Mark
Trumbo hit 34 HR’s last year playing 50% of games in LAAofA. Prediction for 2014 in Ariz?

12:57
Eno Sarris: 38

12:57
Comment From TC
Yes, Jays pick is protected.

12:58
Eno Sarris: Then Ubaldo makes sense. They have some upside coming up in case he gets injured, and they need some bulk. Although, Dickey, Buehrle, Ubaldo… yeah okay, then you’re hoping one of your young guys comes up (I like Stroman) and is awesome on the back end.

12:58
Comment From Seymour
“Duda has no trade value at all.” Meanwhile Duda’s career OPS is .766, 115 RC+, .336 w/OBA in 1282 Pas. Mark Trumbo who just returned 2 young SPs is .768, 111 RC+ and .329 w/OBA

12:59
Eno Sarris: Baseball still values old bulk stats. Trumbo can play the outfield and has hit all the homerz.

12:59
Comment From dude
I haven’t looked, but sounds like Modest Mouse lyrics.

12:59
Eno Sarris: Damn that was pretty good.

12:59
Comment From Garth Vader
What’s the earliest you take Braun next year? Think can hold out on the first round of lets say a 10 teamer?

12:59
Eno Sarris: Yeah. Around 15 or so I’d have to do it.

1:00
Comment From Guest
Are the O’s set on giving Schoop the job this year? If not, think that Mark Ellis could make sense for them. Short commitment, relatively low cost.

1:00
Eno Sarris: They might add a veteran to the mix, one that wouldn’t make too much noise of the young one steps to the fore.

1:01
Comment From Dan
Brad Ausmus won the “Most Handomse Manager” Award. Suck it everyone else, it’s great to be a Tiger.

1:01
Comment From Dan
What exactly is the Tiger’s offseason plan, do you imagine? It seems sort of….Schizophrenic.

1:01
Eno Sarris: Seems like they wanted to improve the team in certain areas without spending more money than they did before. So Fister and Fielder to save money, spread that around to make the infield and bullpen better.

1:02
Comment From Pat
I think the Mets should try to move Gee – he’s going to be excess in the coming years with young arms coming up and he’s probably at maximum value right now – what are your thoughts?

1:03
Eno Sarris: Three seasons of team control left. Just beat his FIP for the first time. Terrible fastball. Great changeup. i think I’d rather keep him for some of this year, move him at the deadline if someone like Syndergaard and Montero take big leaps and look close to ready. Because otherwise, Niese and Gee at below-market prices makes for good “potatoes’ to the ‘meat” of Harvey.

1:03
Eno Sarris: Gross.

1:03
Comment From kramer
Cameron said something about Lynn’s platoon problems yesterday, but his OPS v LHers is better than that of Samardzija’s and their overall numbers are really close (including FIP & xFIP). (not to mention Lynn is younger and has an additional season under team control). Why does the Shark have more trade value?

1:04
Eno Sarris: Gotta look below OPS and to the pitching mix. Lynn doesn’t have a pitch to get lefties out. The splitter has a reverse platoon split, so Jeff’s FB/SL/FS combo is more complete. More velocity.

1:04
Comment From dude
Are catchers not allowed to block the plate with their lower leg/shin guard under this new rule?

1:04
Eno Sarris: Rules aren’t set. Won’t happen until 2015.

1:05
Comment From Right Field Rob
Eno – what has been the biggest surprise to you about the meetings?

1:05
Eno Sarris: How quickly a fellow writer would push me out of the way to listen to Scott Boras.

1:05
Comment From Dan
RE: Lefty Milk Stout. Dammit! They were both on the draft menu last night, but I picked the Founders Breakfast Stout over the Lefty because…I don’t know. Next time.

1:05
Eno Sarris: you did the right thing.

1:05
Comment From Pork Sale
You know what beer I think is underrated? Sierra Nevada Torpedo. It’s not flashy, but I just like the hell out if it.

1:05
Eno Sarris: Solid for sure.

1:05
Comment From Jon (DC)
Where can I find an explanation of what is “average” of stats like wOBA, WAR, and batted ball rates, etc? I can’t put some of this in context when I look at the stats.

1:06
Eno Sarris: Our glossary shows that two WAR is average. wOBA is best compared to other wOBAs through wRC+, which park and league-adjusts and goes on the 100 scale where 100=average.

1:06
Comment From Tom
Who would you target in a Upton and Scherzer deal? Cargo?

1:07
Eno Sarris: I like that. Or take a chance on Braun. Ellsbury’s not crazy. Doesn’t have to be an OF, could be a 1b or 3b.

1:07
Comment From Chicago Mark
Can you see more development in LoMo? I know he’s been around a long time. But his development has been stymied by injuries. Hasn’t it?

1:07
Eno Sarris: The ankle hurt him bad. Apparently he gets his power from his arms, and that’s not great. Really hasn’t developed the power people expected. Seattle seems like a tough place for that to finally happen. But his plate discipline is good.

1:07
Comment From Seymour
Ethier’s same side OPS+ was 90 this past yr so why the sudden outrage? 87 the yr before. He’s far from awful there. About same league as Choo who is *not* going to platoon.

1:08
Eno Sarris: OPS+ is a bad way to measure these things and it’s much better not to slice platoon data further into years.

1:08
Comment From BP
My league has a rookie draft where you control the player 3 years. So, looking at a 3 yr time frame, do you take Myers or Bogaerts ?

1:09
Eno Sarris: Trade down to next guy for Bogaerts plus something. Or take Myers and trade him for Bogaerts and something nice. You have to take Myers because of how your league will likely appraise him, but I think the difference is tiny once you consider position and Myer’s BABIP.

1:10
Comment From Guest
Alesmith IPA vs, Pliny the younger…?

1:10
Eno Sarris: PtY

1:10
Comment From JustAGuy
Anything worth taking away from this year’s rule 5 draft outside the Russel Wilson publicity grab?

1:10
Eno Sarris: Jabari Blash and JD Martinez don’t have enough defensive value for an MLB team to stash them as fourth or fifth OFs, and that’s a terrible sign for their futures.

1:11
Comment From thebeardedcrew
Eno, lot’s are coming from the winter meetings, except about of Boston’s camp – they just lost a 5.8 WAR player in Jacoby Ellsbury. I think Xander helps make up some of those wins and I don’t think JBJ is replacement level, but the two of them don’t get them there. They need another OF, have you heard anything on that front? Further, what makes the most sense? Any idea what sort of prospect the Dodgers really want for Kemp?

1:11
Eno Sarris: I think the Red Sox will ninja something. They have a ton of prospects, they have to know that others like a few of them more than they do. Something built around Ranaudo would make a few teams giddy.

1:11
Comment From Jon (DC)
Ike Davis can’t have any trade value either though.

1:11
Eno Sarris: Piece is up now. Check it out!

1:12
Comment From Jobo
Do you think Michael Choice gets a shot this season in Texas?

1:12
Eno Sarris: They don’t need him to play center, which means he’s closer now to playing time than he was in Oakland. I want to see what the roster looks like in spring and how much burn he’s getting, but I’m optimistic, especially since the park will now help not hurt.

1:12
Comment From Seymour
u buying EY Jr to play 2B if Mets move Murphy?

1:13
Eno Sarris: I think EYJR is no longer a second baseman. Colorado was sure of it.

1:13
Comment From crw
GM that is most cordial to the writers at winter meetings?

1:14
Eno Sarris: Alderson has been seen the most, maybe, since he’s been meeting on the catcher thing and has done a few pressers. He’s nice, studied, calculated, says interesting things, and makes jokes. My sample size is around four though.

1:14
Eno Sarris: They mostly hide.

1:14
Comment From Gila Monster
Are you surprised Hart didn’t have more suitors. He would be pretty good at 1st. He seemed to make sense for Pittsburgh,Boston,Tampa,LAA..etc considering the cost

1:14
Eno Sarris: I don’t think people were happy about the knee.

1:15
Comment From BP
Danny Salazar or Wheeler, next year only ?

1:15
Eno Sarris: I’m taking Salazar because he has better innate command, and if he can stay away from being predictable, I think the homers will go down. Still like Wheeler.

1:15
Comment From Officer Farva
are you live chattign from the Lobby? that would be great… funnier yet would be if a player came over and saw you…or Ex player.

1:15
Eno Sarris: Media room.

1:15
Comment From dude
Potatoes to the Meat is my new band name.

1:16
Comment From DLowe
Eno, please put these pitchers in order of who gets the most saves in 2014 – Janssen, Balfour, Cody Allen, F Rodney. Thanks

1:16
Eno Sarris: Balfour, Allen, Janssen, Rodney. Concerned that Janssen’s control-based K-rate will continue to decline, Santos has more pure stuff and Delabar is sexy too. Allen is hard to bet on until you know he has the role. Rodney could go anywhere.

1:16
Comment From GSon
Boston is looking for a RHH CF’er.. any chance the Red Sox and Indians have a Stubbs for trade working?

1:17
Eno Sarris: He’s definitely available and wouldn’t cost much.

1:17
Comment From bronx
Four years of 25-year-old secondbaseman Dustin Ackley for one year of 30-year-old centerfielder Brett Gardner. Who hangs up first?

1:17
Eno Sarris: It’s sexier than Phillips probably.

1:17
Comment From Gila Monster
Is the Colon signing proof that the Mets are waiting for 2015-2016 and the return of Harvey + prospects are up to make some more splashes? He seems like a “he’ll hold us over for a year” type signing.

1:17
Eno Sarris: Definition of that, given his age.

1:18
Comment From Mike
You pretty much have to go to the brewery if you want to get Zombie. Friday at noon seems to be the best bet it my experience.

1:18
Comment From Officer Farva
You should put Portland Maine on you travel itinerary… lots of local brews … Allagash is made here. you could make the trip to Hill Farmstead and or Alchemist in VT(heady topper) if you had a day and watch Mookie.

1:18
Comment From Marty
How would you optimally manage Trumbo on a fantasy team?

1:18
Eno Sarris: Stick him in there, enjoy the bad batting average and a ton of homers. Done.

1:18
Comment From Guest
Who do you like more in Otto Points at 1B: $15 Mike Napoli or $7 Logan Morrison

1:18
Eno Sarris: Napoli.

1:18
Comment From dude
Do you think Infante ends up with the Yankees? I would like that.

1:18
Eno Sarris: They seem reluctant to add the fourth year, but it seems an obvious match.

1:18
Comment From Jay
Which would you prefer: Jim Johnson 1 year deal for $10 mil or G. Balfour for 2 years and $20 mil?

1:19
Eno Sarris: The rumor is 2/18 for Balfour, and JJ is 11, so that, plus missed bats, has me leaning GB. Of course he’s older and it’s two years, but two years doesn’t seem like a huge deal to me.

1:19
Comment From E
what do the GMs order for room service? Do they eat normal food like the rest of us? Are they picky? Any dietary restrictions? I cant imagine that myself and a GM eat the same thing for dinner! We need answers.

1:20
Eno Sarris: I had a Presidente in the Giants suite, and there’s a Don Shula’s downstairs that I’m sure delivers upstairs.

1:20
Comment From Froglegs Jackson
Any concern about Sano’s UCL? Do you think having TJS would prematurely move him off 3B?

1:20
Eno Sarris: I am concerned about the UCL. James Andrews visit!

1:20
Comment From Guest
Thoughts on 2014 Robbie Grossman?

1:21
Eno Sarris: Undervalued. Interesting.

1:21
Comment From Seymour
“OPS+ is a bad way to measure these things” pretty sure you led with that data point.

1:21
Eno Sarris: Pretty sure you can scroll down and see that I didn’t.

1:21
Comment From Sagar
Alen Hanson or Mookie Betts in Dynasty Leagues?

1:21
Eno Sarris: Betts!

1:22
Comment From Seymour
Eno, why do you think there isn’t more attention paid and action in the rule 5 draft? a good handful of recent success stories isn’t enough to get GMs to take it seriously?!?!

1:23
Eno Sarris: Very few success stories, and you have to dedicate a whole 40-man roster spot to the guy all year to find out! That means only about five teams can manage to take that chance.

1:23
Comment From Guest
mauer worth a spot at 1B? he’ll still have c position elif this year, but after that?

1:23
Eno Sarris: A little bit more in OBP leagues, but sure, I think Mauer’s a top-12 1B.

1:23
Comment From Gila Monster
They shut down The Alchemist store because neighbors were complaining :(

1:23
Eno Sarris: booo

1:23
Comment From Jake@Baseballprof
What side of the Billy Hamilton coin do you fall on? The I think he can steal 100 bases side or the I don’t think he can get on base enough to play regularly.

1:24
Eno Sarris: I’m reasonably positive, but I’m no scout and of course I’m nervous. But if he can manage even a .310 OBP, the turning of singles and walks into doubles and triples via the steal will be sexy enough to keep him out there. And I think that same athleticism will make him a good center fielder despite iffy routes. That much I saw myself.

1:24
Comment From Pips
What is your favorite fantasy format and why ?

1:25
Eno Sarris: 5×5 roto classical because it’s my first love.

1:25
Comment From dude
Is it awesome at the winter meetings? Should we all be jealous?

1:26
Eno Sarris: Not all of it is, but the bar is amazing. Once they got Racer 5 in there, I had a good beer in my hand and was constantly talking to someone very smart about baseball. That part was worth all the travel and stupidity during the day.

1:26
Comment From Marty
Roberto Clemente was a Rule 5 draftee.

1:26
Comment From Adam
Considering that Garza has no draft pick compensation attached to him, why aren’t more team interested?

1:26
Eno Sarris: Probably wants a lot of years.

1:26
Comment From Seymour
whoopsadoodle my bad, you used RC+ splits. for reference Choo 81 same side RC+ in ’13 and 78 in ’12.

1:27
Eno Sarris: And people talking about platooning him at some point in the deal. And I’d rather use multiple years so we’re not slicing the numbers too far. I mean, hey, if Ethier’s new team wants to run a guy out there that’s 25% worse than league average against lefties, fine. But if you could put Brown out there instead, why not.

1:27
Comment From Marty
People who think the winter meetings are awesome probably don’t travel to business conferences. I imagine it’s 90% boredom, 10% heavy drinking

1:27
Eno Sarris: There’s a lot of that, but the 10% is pretty awesome.

1:27
Comment From LarryA
Whats your take on Lag Brown Shugga? A bit too malty IMO

1:28
Eno Sarris: I like Sucks better.

1:28
Comment From Kris
See the Braves adding Shark? Or someone like Jason Hammel?

1:28
Eno Sarris: They’re going to add a pitcher but I think it’ll be a cheap one. Move might be coming soon.

1:28
Comment From DLowe
Will the Yankees actually let Robertson close, or will they grab someone like Rodney to do the job? It doesn’t seem like the Yankees would take the chance on Robertson…

1:28
Eno Sarris: They might actually take an established guy but say Robertson still has a chance.

1:29
Comment From Staypufft
remember with the new CBA there is an extra year before players are Rule 5 eligible so we should probably see a lot fewer impact Rule 5 guys than we did previously

1:29
Comment From Eastern NC
Stupid Orioles. Do you see a point in signing Balfour? Is he steadier than Johnson or something?

1:29
Eno Sarris: Cheaper and they get another lotto ticket at second base for their troubles.

1:29
Comment From LarryA
WAIT- Thay have chick-fil-A in Florida, all over the place. Get there now!

1:29
Eno Sarris: Oh yeah that’ll be my dinner in the plane for sure.

1:29
Comment From Gila Monster
Suprising we haven’t heard anything on Headley. Is expensive,1 year from FA, and Padres don’t seem interested in an extention.

1:29
Eno Sarris: That could easily happen! Heard some people wondering what it would be.

1:30
Comment From LarryA
Couldnt the cubs basically bbuy low on Shark with an extension now, or do they not believe in him?

1:30
Eno Sarris: No I think that was the problem, they wanted to (heard $11m a year) and he doesn’t like. He might need to be really aggressive considering his age and late start.

1:30
Comment From Jake@Baseballprof
Is this the year Porcello finally puts it together with a reasonable defense in the infield?

1:31
Eno Sarris: He’s our number one least likely pitcher to hit the DL, too, so that’s nice. The curve was a big deal, the defense will help. Career year. How good will it be?

1:31
Eno Sarris: hey guys!

1:31
Eno Sarris: Gotta go!

1:31
Eno Sarris: Next week!

1:31
Comment From LarryA
dont say it

1:31
Eno Sarris: I did.

1:31
Comment From Froglegs Jackson
booooooo

1:31
Comment From Jake@Baseballprof
Thanks Eno! Your the best



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Graphs: Baseball, Roto, Beer, brats (OK, no graphs for that...yet), repeat. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris.


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