Eric Longenhagen Prospect Chat, March to Completion

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe. Link to Nationals prospect list….

Eric A Longenhagen: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-20-prospects-washington-nationals/

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve wrestled the Yankees list to the ground should finish hog-tying it late tonight, just before Olney and Gammons start tweeting.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, let’s go.

80 grade question asker: hi eric, upcoming prospects draft. do you have a preference maitan vs senzel?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll say what you probably already know: I like Maitan’s upside, I like Senzel’s probability. Beyond that I’d ask you and all other fantasy owners with this guy or that guy fantasy questions to read my stuff and make a decision about your draft on your own based on what I’ve provided.

Hal Kitzmiller: In your tool grades, what, for example, does 50/55 signify?

Eric A Longenhagen: Average/above average.

Eric A Longenhagen: So, if I say a guy has a 50/55 curveball it means I, scouts I’ve spoken with or both have a mixed or general but not specific opinion of the curveball.

Dave: Will Estevan Florial be the Yankees #1 prospect at any point?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s good but I kind of doubt it.

Sam: Do you have a top five for the upcoming draft? How does the overall talent pool compare to last year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Will have a formal board up after the lists are done but Faedo, Greene, Wright, Kendall, Lewis and DL Hall are up there for me right now. It’s about the same, talent-wise, as last year but it’s composed much differently.

Dan: Why was Cory Taylor left off the Giants list? I know the list came out awhile ago, just got to it. Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, he’s alright. 92-95, will show you an above average slider. But was like 24 or 25 in A-ball last year, is a 250lb guy without physical projection and a relief-only guy. An overwhelming majority of relievers are 40s, just by nature of the job, and based on proximity and reliever volatility in general I had to back out FV based on risk so a 40 ceiling drops off the list. You could have put him in the honorable mention section and I wouldn’t have argued with you, he has a good arm.,

Danny: Which Garcia do you think has the best chance of breaking out, Dermis or Wilkerman? Why?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not sure Wilkerman has the offensive tools needed to break out, scouts like the bat despite his on-paper performance last year and he seems likely to track through the minors as a bat-first middle infield prospect. Dermis, if he ever starts hitting, breaks out and becomes a potential 30 homer bat. So I’ll say Dermis.

Darrell: Does Estevan Florials best case scenario look anything like Eloy Jimenez?

Eric A Longenhagen: They’re very different players. Florial is more of a power/speed CF prospect. Eloy is an elite power corner guy.

Brett: Is Dustin Fowler a leage avg. CF? Anything more?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have a firm 50 on him so yes, average. Which is really good.

Tim: Who is the best relief prospect at the moment? Jimenez? Glover? Burdi? Other?

Eric A Longenhagen: Burdi has the highest grade I’ve given to a reliever during the offseason.

Manny: Royals haven’t had a guy on a top 100 list this year (and Strahm at a 55 FV seems fringey for your list). Given their not excellent pick in the draft this June, when is the next time they have a top 100 guy?

Eric A Longenhagen: 55 makes my list and I’ll have a bunch of 50s on there, too. He’ll probably be on the back third of the list, I like him.

Drew: How many WAR does Clint Frazier average at his 7 year peak?

Eric A Longenhagen: 2.5

Michael: Do you ever see Orlando Arcia turning into a .280 AVG, 15-20 HR, and 25 SB guy? I know your love for Amed Rosario, that being said I have been offered a trade in my dynasty league of my Arcia and Lazaritos for Rosario. Take it?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d make the deal. Really like Arcia but Armenteros has a long way to go and Rosario is on another planet.

felixthecat: Can you tell us a little about this guy called Eudor Garcia from the mets orginzation eric

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah he was tough to get a lot of reports on when I did the Mets list because he had a PED suspension last year. Has some power (though nobody’s sure how much of it is legit because of the PEDs) but it’s a 1B-body, pull-only…wasn’t quite enough to shove on the list when my focus was on the young Latin American talent in the system which I just find more interesting for that quick hits section.

Brad: I don’t think I’ve seen your seattle rundown. What do you think of Kyle Lewis? Thanks.

Eric A Longenhagen: AL West is my last division to do this month. I really like Lewis, think he could hit 20+ homers and play CF if the knee issue doesn’t rob him of speed but we won’t know that until we see him back in action.

pauo: Eric, Nellie Rodriguez or Bobby Bradley long term and why

Eric A Longenhagen: Bradley. I think he gets to that power consistently despite all the K’s

ian richard: can andres gimenez continue his unprecedented K/BB rate in the minors

Eric A Longenhagen: I doubt it.

ian richard: Willie Abreu of the Rockies or Ibandel Isabel of the dodgers in a 30 team dynasty pts league

Eric A Longenhagen: Damn, you’re going deep. I’ve heard crazy things about Isabel’s raw power but Abreu has a better chance to hit. Not really on either guy though, if I’m being honest.

Billy: Does Miguel Andujar keep the Yankees away from Manny Machado?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nobody should keep any team away from Machado.

Frankie : Who is the Yankees top prospect once Gleyber gets to the bigs?

Eric A Longenhagen: Since Gleyber probably won’t lose rookie-eligibility until late 2018, if that, Judge, Frazier and maybe even Kaprielian will likely have graduated at that point so probably Rutherford.

saditude: Just a general question to further understand FV ratings: A 40 or 45 FV for many/most minor league position players between the ages of 21-24 is basically a “they look like org depth until they show something scouts haven’t seen.” Is this a fair assessment? I guess I am wondering how to rate a farm system with a large amount of 40-45 FV talent between low A and AA/AAA. Do you have a sense of a percentage of those players who ‘take an unexpected leap forward’? Fewer than 3%?

Eric A Longenhagen: 40s from that age range are made up of either low-risk 5th starters, utility types (usually ones that can’t play SS because they’d be 45s if they could) or bench outfielders. 45s in that age range are usually #4/5 starters, utility guys who can play short and low-end everyday players. Those are good prospects.

Ryan Dunne: Do we still put too much stock in minor league numbers now that more and more organizations are emphasizing process over production?

Eric A Longenhagen: I consciously avoid putting much stock in #’s beneath Double-A but I can’t speak for the royal we. I’d trust your friendly neighborhood scouting writer before a statline.

Scruffy-Looking Nerf Hurler: Who is the best pitching prospect who hasn’t seen MLB time yet?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d take Espinoza but would accept arguments for 3-5 other guys like Kopech, Yadier Alvarez..

Gest: If Ariel Hernandez was coming out of college next year, about where would teams have him on their draft boards?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s 25

Eric A Longenhagen: 21 year olds with that fastball/breaking ball combo but bad control probably go in the 2nd or third round

Gest: Is it weird when a pitcher who gets good movement on his 2 seamer doesn’t get good movement on his changeup? Gsellman seems to be like this.

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, other than the shape of the movement on the pitches, they’re very different.

Eric A Longenhagen: There seems to be positive correlation between fastball spin rate and fastball movement

Eric A Longenhagen: but spin and movement on changeups are the inverse

Drew: With the recent power surge, do we need to reframe how we think about the 20-80 scale for power? Or are prospects with 45/50 power just not as valuable as they used to be?

Eric A Longenhagen: I know some teams are monitoring the scale and have at least considered tweaking it based on the way outputs are changing, but others think the communicative value is more important than the scale being scientifically accurate (I fall into this camp) or that we don’t have enough data to justify doing it yet.

@RationalMLBfan: The Yankees have been moving Gleyber Torres around–some time at 2B, and some talk of getting him time at 3B. It’s good for players to be versatile, but doesn’t this diminish his value? (A bat that is good at SS may not be as valuable at 3B, for example.) Should the Yankees let Torres master SS and instead let lesser prospects (Wade, Mateo) focus on versatility?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think the roster flexibility a player’s versatility allows provides value and I like that they’re expanding the horizons of those middle infielders.

Eric A Longenhagen: And not everyone is sure they like Gleyber at short anyway.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’ll be fine there

Brian: During your research, what has surprised you about the Yankees’ farm system thus far? Anyone you are unexpectedly higher on, lower on? Thanks.

Eric A Longenhagen: Leo Molina isn’t all that far behind the Garcias or Florial.

Rebel IPA: Which prospects have impressed you the most so far in ST?

Eric A Longenhagen: Anthony Banda is throwing really hard, seen him up to 96. Jeimer Candelario looks more agile and better at third base. True Minor League games don’t start until next week though, so I’ve only seen some guys in big league games and it’s hard to scout there because of the sea of humanity that has descended upon my utopia.

Ted: Is it me, or is the nationals’ farm system pretty uninspiring at the moment? Outside of robles that is.

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s not all that sexy, probably a tick below average as farm systems go. But part of that is because they’ve graduated someone good just about every year for the last several years and that’s part of why, as is their pursuit of a title which sucked three good arms out of the system.

Harvey Birdman: What was the report on Nick Quintana as an amateur? Has he improved on anything in particular? His start is quite something for a FR

Eric A Longenhagen: I was on him. Hit/power potential at 2B, some scouts liked him as a catcher because nobody thought he’d stay at SS. Body has gotten stronger sooner than I expected.

Dodger Guy: O’Neil Cruz sounds like he’s been turning some heads in ST. Is there significant power there?

Eric A Longenhagen: Haven’t seen him yet but check out the frame on him as an amateur…

Eric A Longenhagen:

Eric A Longenhagen: If he has begun to fill out, that power may have begun to arrive. He’ll be fun to catch during Extended.

Carl: Cody Bellinger is getting a ton of hype this year. Who is better, both this year and long-term, among him, Brinson and Austin Meadows?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have Meadows, Bellinger, then Brinson

The Cincinnati Kid: Does the current crop of prospects feel higher, lower, or about what you’d expect from year-to-year. A different way of asking is, do the 65s, 60s, 55, 50s, etc. seem to be the same this year as other years, or is the well a little dry compared to 3 years ago?

Eric A Longenhagen: Definitely lower than recent years when we’ve graduated Lindor, Bryant, Russel, Correa and on and on. Not sure if that means the minor are bad right now or just that those years were superlative. It’s a better question for Klaw, Callis or Manuel who have been doing this since before I had facial hair and have more context.

soaktherich: Is a relatively unknown 80 speed guy like Cuban prospect Dairon Blanco worth a shot as possibly Billy Hamilton 2.0? Having him available as a post-season pinch runner (while grooming him in AAA during the season) should be worth something in itself, right?

Eric A Longenhagen: Perhaps but based on what I’ve seen from Blanco he doesn’t have a good feel for CF at all, despite the speed. That might be because he hasn’t played in games lately, though.

Ryan Dunne: Who is the most exciting prospect participating in the WBC?

Eric A Longenhagen: Victor Mesa

John: Does Moniak have a 70 Hit tool upside?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

soaktherich: When teams recruit you, are they offering positions that would require you to live in the MLB city or could you just as easily stay in AZ (if they aren’t the D-Backs)? You’re gone as soon as you finish the team prospect lists, aren’t you?

Eric A Longenhagen: It has been mixed. But no, I’m unlikely to go anywhere at this point. Teams have their staffs for the year.

SDinSEA: You mentioned that scouts liked Potts more than Tatis Jr. It seems like Tatis is the one who gets all the love though. Do you Potts has the talent to be a potential top 100 prospect? Is there hope for me to not always wonder what if with Perez?

Eric A Longenhagen: Did I say that? I don’t recall that and my Padres list doesn’t reflect that. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/prospect-reports-san-diego-padres/

Eric A Longenhagen: I doubt Potts is ever a top 100 guy but I do like him.

John: If you were ranking the best players in the world, how far would you get before naming a non-MLB player?

Eric A Longenhagen: This is one hell of a question

Eric A Longenhagen: Basically, how far down is Otani, right?

Eric A Longenhagen: And with Otani we’re talking about 94+, plus curve, 55 slider, 55 change. Right now. That’s almost definitely top 50 in baseball, I think.

Andy: What’s the best nickname given to a current prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Itchy

Eric A Longenhagen: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa920269&position=DH/OF

Eric A Longenhagen: Itchy Xu

Drew: When grading fastball, do you not make a distinction between 4 and 2 seamers? Do they all roll together into a fastball “grade”

Eric A Longenhagen: I do not, unless there’s a huge difference in utilization for the given prospect it just isn’t worth the extra sourcing to nail down that sort of specificity.

Jane: I cannot believe that Estanli Castillo is 15…

Eric A Longenhagen: I know, right. Insane power.

Brazilians baseball: How much interest is Eric Pardinho getting from MLB teams? And where do you see baseball in Brazil in ten years?

Eric A Longenhagen: Had workouts for LAA and CLE here in AZ but I have Toronto as the front runner. I think it will continue to grow and I hope we can start coaxing athletes who might otherwise have played soccer or basketball onto the diamond. Someone needs to find the next Ronaldinho and put a mitt in his hand at 12.

Natitude Adjuster: I feel somewhat ashamed as a Nats fan–I’d never even heard of Juan Soto before. But you blow him up as the system’s #2-rated prospect! Your write-up has me optimistic, though in decidedly tempered fashion, given his age. Would you be the over on his KATOH 3.2 first-6-season WAR figure?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s one of those guys that’s too far away for KATOH to get a real grip on, I think. I’m more interested in KATOH for guys with multiple years of data at higher levels.

Drew: I’m really surprised about everything I’ve read about Rutherford. What makes him so special? Tools look like a corner-OF with low 20s HR power and some batting average but I’ve seen him ranked in top 50 lists.

Eric A Longenhagen: Has always hit as an amateur, only fell in the draft because the price was artificially high due to teams in the 40s trying to move him back to their pick.

Eric A Longenhagen: Give credit to the Yankees amateur staff for figuring out how out how to fidget with their bonus pool to get him signed and still have a solid draft class.

Jim Lahey: How do you rank the first tier of Yankees SP prospects? Kap/Sheffield/Domingo/Abreu/Adams?

Eric A Longenhagen: Still shuffling them a bit but have Kap, Sheffield, Abreu, Adams, Acevedo right now.

$200 hot dog: How did you get your job?

Eric A Longenhagen: Incriminating photos of Appelman.

Rod: I’m a little new to all this. When I was browsing the top 30 international prospects from 2016 on MLB.com, I noticed that a lot of them have these huge 50-60 grades (Almanzar, Almenteros) but appear nowhere on MLB’s top 100 prospect list. Are the grades wrong, should at least somebody beyond Maitan be on the top 100 prospect list, or something in between?

Eric A Longenhagen: The MLB grades are on ceiling/likely future outcome. My grades try to combine that + risk/proximity into one number. Both on the 20-80 scale, but saying different things.

Drew: Where do you think Forest Wall ends up defensively? Does he even matter or is he just an empty batting average?

Eric A Longenhagen: You try him at 2B until he he’s so bad there for the level that you can’t keep him there anymore, then you try CF and then LF.

Bert Campaneris: Any perspective on DJ Burt? Have you seen him? Reaching base on 54 consecutive games sound like a nice little feat.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, he’s one of those prospects I love to watch but realize his upside is limited. Utility guy for me and that’s an abstract projection because he hasn’t branched out on defense yet.

Ron: Prospect in your top 25 with the highest bust probability?

Eric A Longenhagen: Pick an arm, any arm.

Rebel IPA: How do you say Rosario is on another planet? When I look at his numbers I see Andrelton Simmons 2.0. What am I missing?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s got room for another 15 pounds and better feel for airborne contact than Simmons. Non-zero chance Rosario grows into 18+ homers.

Hank: Is Sandy Alcantara going to be a lights out reliever?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m on him as a starter.

Twoseamers: what’s your take on cody reed, 2017 and also long term?

Eric A Longenhagen: I still believe he can be a #3/4 and was kind of shocked he was as bad in the bigs as he was last year.

Jeffrey Loria: Am I like the Vladimir Putin of Baseball?

Eric A Longenhagen: Do you own a $3,000 track suit? Then, no.

Eric A Longenhagen: Do you seek to annex foreign lands and consolidate infinite power under your own umbrella of rule? Then, no.

Eric A Longenhagen: Never comp

mike sixel: Which Burdi is the better Burdi?

Eric A Longenhagen: Haha, Zack. Both are nasty when healthy but Nick hasn’t been and I think Zack has three pitches.

John: Any chance Luis Urias can stick at short?

Eric A Longenhagen: It deserves more than passing dismissal and consideration of how batted ball data might allow for it but based on what I’ve seen, no.

Southpaws : Out of the fringe prospects the White Sox got this offseason (Dane Dunning, Victor Diaz and Luis Alexander Basabe) who will have the brightest future?

Eric A Longenhagen: Dunning

jordy: Any idea on how many sites there are dedicated to prospect coverage of just one team such as Tim Williams at Pirates Prospects?

Eric A Longenhagen: No idea but I admire their hustle.

Bert Campaneris: Domingo Leyba (40FV), Ildemaro Vargas (not FV listed: Cistulli guy), and Sergio Alcantara (honorable mention)… they all had strong winter seasons. What do you need to see this summer to bring them up a notch in your FV?

Eric A Longenhagen: Vargas was a minor league FA that was brought back so definitely seen as a fringe guy league-wide. Leyba just has to keep hitting until I can’t ignore it anymore. Alcanatara…not sure. He’s always going to be like 5-9 and slight-framed, a high probability 40 for me. 70 arm though.

Murdoc: Which model of radar gun do you have?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t. I’m poor and have excellent, gun-peeking eyes. But if someone took me out, Pretty Woman style, and told me to pick out a radar gun it’d be the Stalker Pro II.

Kristen: If Mike Matuella stays healthy this season, do you see him moving quickly up through the Rangers’ system given their dearth of SP prospects?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes. That’s a large “if” but when I saw him throw as he came back last summer, his stuff was too good for low-level hitters. Healthy Matuella’s stuff plays at Hi-A immediately.

Rob: I don’t have a comment, just wanted to thank you for all of your work. The lists are great to read, looking forward to the NYYs one later tonight.

Eric A Longenhagen: Thank you, we’re almost done and I shall rest. I’d expect Yankees late this week once it goes through the editing grinder.

The Yankee ginger: Frazier only averages 2.5 war? What’s his peak WAR?

Eric A Longenhagen: 4? 2.5 is good, that’s what Greg Polanco and Marcel Ozuna put up last year.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, I’m off.

Eric A Longenhagen: Thanks for stopping by, enjoy the WBC bonus in addition to spring games this week.