Escobar and Cain
Alcides Escobar didn’t hit at all in 2010. Lorenzo Cain hit better than expected once he reached the big leagues. In both instances, I think we can say that their 2010 performances were among the chief reasons they were traded to Kansas City over the weekend. If Escobar had hit like he was expected to, Milwaukee would have been loath to give him up. If Cain hadn’t hit .300 upon reaching the majors, his stock probably wouldn’t have been high enough to make him a main piece in a trade for Zack Greinke.
However, a look beyond their slash lines shows that Escobar and Cain weren’t all that different offensively last year. Escobar’s walk rate was marginally better, but that difference is just the intentional walks he was issued as an occasional benefactor of the eighth spot in an NL line-up. Escobar struck out a little less, but their contact rates were basically the same. Neither showed much power, as they combined for a whopping five home runs.
The difference in their batting lines is almost entirely due to their rate of hitting singles. In some cases, this is a skill, as some players are simply better singles hitters than others. In this case, however, it looks a lot more like luck.
The main cause of Escobar’s pitiful 2010 slash line? His .613 batting average on line drives, second worst in baseball among full time players – only Carlos Lee (.612) had a worse outcome on line drives. Of the 93 balls he hit hard enough to be judged liners, he only ended up with 57 hits. The league average is around .725 in most years, and the year-to-year correlation in BA on line drives is a minuscule .015, as the results appear to be mostly random. If Escobar had gotten hits on 72.5 percent of his line drives, he’d have ended up with an extra 10 base hits, and his average would have been .255 instead of .235.
Cain is exactly the opposite. He got better than expected results on his line drives, coming out with 19 hits on 24 liners, a .792 average. If we adjust his BA on LD down to .725 as well, his batting average would drop from .306 to .293. If we accept that hitters don’t have much control over whether they get hits on line drives, which both the numbers and our experiences should agree with, the 70-point gap in batting average between Escobar and Cain gets cut nearly in half.
There’s even more bad news for those hoping for Cain to repeat his 2010 line again, however. He had a .340 batting average on ground balls last year, which was also among the highest in baseball. He is fast, so we’d expect him to do better on grounders than average, but no one has been able to sustain a .340 average on ground balls for any length of time.
The highest BA on GBs from 2002 to 2010 is Ichiro Suzuki, not surprisingly, but he comes in at just .311. Matt Holliday is the only other guy to hit .300 on grounders, as he hit exactly that. It continues to fall off quickly from there. For instance, Chone Figgins has the fifth-highest average on grounders since ’02, but has hit just .272, not that far from the .245 league average. While fast guys can eek out more infield hits, and thus improve their average on grounders, it doesn’t seem like they can do it often enough to push themselves that far away from the pack.
With significant improvement, Cain is in for a pretty big step back offensively in 2011. Escobar is almost certainly going to see his numbers improve, and probably by a significant margin. I wouldn’t be surprised if Escobar had a better slash line than Cain next year, in fact. Both will need to add either walks or power to their repertoire if they want to become stars, but if you’re going to bet on either of the two position players that KC acquired this weekend, bet on Escobar. Their 2010 slash lines don’t reflect their real abilities.
I think if Cain and Escobar can both hit near .280/.330/.380 with plus speed and defense, the Royals will be very happy.
They’ve got plenty of power coming on the corners with Moustakas and Hosmer – with Will Meyers right on their heels. Butler looks like a perenntial .310/.370/.475 type of hitter which will fit right in as well.
I say all of that to make the point I believe the Royals are more interested in Cain and Escobar for their speed and defense to support their remarkable pitching prospects. As long as they can get on base well enough to make use of their speed they’ll be very good complementary players to the others already on their way.
If the pair do hit merely .280/.330/.380 with speed and defense, then the Royals should have never traded for them. A SS or CF who can do that are pretty easy to come by off the scrap heap, and trading your best piece (one of the more desirable pieces in all of baseball) should bring you more then scrap-heap players, you know.
When I say plus speed and defense, I mean PLUS. Escobar was not so long ago the highest rated SS prospect for his defense and offensive abilities. His talent is far above ‘scrap level’ quality. I’d argue the same for Cain.
.280/.330/.380 is the baseline I’d use to gauge their worth. I think both can and should eventually hit better with time. I’ve seen long term projections for both around .300/.350/.400.
A .280/.330/.380ish type SS just brought back four prospects from the Padres. Not sure where your scrap heap is located, but +5 defense at the two most important defensive positions with league average (for the position) offense isn’t exactly a dime-a-dozen.
If they are so easy to find, would you like to give us a list of plus fielding SS’s and CF’s who might provide at least that much offense who might be available this offseason or next? I bet you can’t think of very many!
Let’s see, Span had a worse line than that and was a 2.9 WAR cf. Scuataro about that line, sub o uzr and not all that fast and he was above replacement too at 2.2. In fact, Yunel Escobar had a much worse triple slash and he was above 2 as well.
I don’t think Escobar is getting to that line anyway, but he could still be above a 2 war without it.
Could you please send one of those “dime a dozen” shortstops from your scrap heap to the Cardinals? Thanks.
Daniel,
Okay, but that better be one huge “PLUS” then, lol. I just see .280/.330/.380 as a sure-fire lightning-rod for dissatisfaction from the fans since that will be their tangible evidence from the trade of one of the top trade pieces you can find, you know. And if you could have gotten one stud blue-chip from another club, plus signed someone off the FA market who could post a line like that at SS, then… Defending lines like that from the pieces you got will be tough.
Sandy Kazmir,
You mean a 28 Year Old Reliever with a career 1.53 WHIP and 4.05 xFIP and 27 Year Old Reliever with a career 1.95 WHIP and 4.02 xFIP? That constitutes “four prospects” now, does it? Because I am having a hard time even finding one…
to everyone else,
Over the last 3 seasons, 29 SS with 800+ PA have posted a .690+ OPS, while 44 (of 52) CF did it. And thats players with 2+ years worth of ABs, so doesnt include all those capable but without the playing time to show it. In fact, KC just signed two OFers that posted 690+ OPS over the last two seasons; to laughable responses from the fans.
wobatus,
A 2.0 WAR is league average. If they are to provide that line (which isnt a sure thing at all) then they might be able to end up league average? So Grienke was traded for two guys who might, if they are lucky, end up being about league average? Is that the argument?
@joey O: they may hit at the MLB average, but they play above average defense at the most important and difficult defensive positions (sans catcher). so they may hit average, but their defense will be well above average, putting their WAR above 2, probably closer to 3. so if you get them both plus the two pitchers, which will probably get like 1 WAR each, you get AT LEAST 6 WAR if escobar and cain are 2 WAR players and you can get up to 8 WAR if they are 3 WAR players. now greinke is probably good for 5-7 WAR a year, which is about what these guys are worth, but he gets paid a lot more than the league minimum prospects are getting.
now i’m saying this is a great deal for the royals, because it’s not. i am just saying that it’s not terrible as you think. they could have done much much better and gotten jesus montero or justin smoak or maybe ike davis or something from another team and it would have been a much much better deal. but the return they got is OK in terms of WAR, even though it could have been a slam dunk for the royals.
NOT* saying in the second paragraph lol
But Greinke takes up only one roster spot. Prospects for stars rarely work out, especially when teams go for major leaguers, because teams are only willing to trade away major leaguers they don’t see having a high upside. And it’s really the upside and getting a prospect to fulfill it that gets you value. If Kansas City thought the Maximum value of these players was to have four players who return the same WAR that Greinke can provide by himself than they made a mistake. They need Escobar to reach his absolute peak potential offensively at .350-.360 obp and .420-.450 slg, with his defense, or they need the starting pitcher they got to hit his. Because really, Kansas City should have been looking for a trade, but they were under no pressure to take any deal right now, and in trading a star pitcher with a reasonable contract, they should be able to get back a future star.
phoenix2042,
Here is the issue as I see it. First, as bad as Betancourt is, someone would have given them a reliever. And sure that reliever may not have the upside of Jeffress, but someone with a more secure (albeit lower) performance range would have at least probably been semi-comparable. I would set those two aside as a Betancourt/Jeffress stand-alone trade that the Royals clearly won on and factor the rest from there.
That leaves us with Escobar, Cain and Odorizzi for Greinke – and it also gives us our issues. Cain is just too easily replaced on the FA market for little or no money spent. I mean really, you can sign a guy like Reed Johnson or Fred Johnson and get similar production to Cains likely upside. Because of it, you really dont add any value from his inclusion in the package; KC merely bought high on a guy with gigantic questions and little real value. He represents a value they could have easily gotten through other means with no real value surrendered.
Now Escobar is a little bit harder to easily replace then Cain. You can get a guy like Hairston each season, but he will cost a little money and not have the theoretical upside of AE. And while Odorizzi has potential, his high-mid rotation ceiling isnt extremely valuable either. But it brings us to the forgotten aspect of the move – the draft picks. Can you honestly say Escobar + Odorizzi > 2 years of Greinke + 2 1st rounders?
It can be argued that the Royals may have broken about even overall. But when you are trading one of the most desirable trade chips in the game with the 2 years of service and 2 DPs attached, “arguably even” shouldnt even be in consideration. So it isnt a laughably horrible trade, they might have gotten rough on-field value in return. But yes, it should have been much closer to a slam dunk. They should have focused much, much less on what they perceived they eventually might be in need of and instead focused on the best actual value they could get.
As you said, “they could have done much much better” – and that will always be the issue here.
*Fred Lewis up there in the “Fred Johnson” place
@JoeyO
Cain is much better defender who is younger, cheaper and has more upside than Fred Lewis or Reed Johnson. Your analysis discounts his defense too much. Those two aren’t premier CF defenders, they are below league average. Cain has a chance to be well above average
EricZ,
Yeah, but he cant hit a lick without a 400 BAbip. The improvement with the bat Johnson or Lewis represent would balance out the defensive difference. As far as “cheaper” – not true, those two will likely get league minimum or at least something around it. As far as age – doesnt matter, its on field production and cost we are worried about here. And Cain is just extremely easily to replace on a cost and production level.
“If Kansas City thought the Maximum value of these players was to have four players who return the same WAR that Greinke can provide by himself than they made a mistake.”
That would be true if the players going and coming back were under control for the same number years at the same price. Neither of those things are true, though.
Whether area of *need* or not. I think The Royals could have got a better package from Texas or the Jays. In fact given the end result I would have setteled for Martin Perez and some other lower level prospects. How do you flip a 4-6 WAR SP with two yrs remaining on a deal for 4 players who would not even crack the top 20 on any 100 prospect list!
find me one article that says the Rangers were willing to give up Martin Perez in a deal for Greinke
Exactly. They are but one of the “logical” scenarios who took their #1 prospect off the table from the start. Odorizzi is not Perez, but at least Milwaukee didn’t tell Dayton to take Eric Arnett or go spit. Texas is having one really terrible off-season.
Escobar was number 12 on BA’s top 100. OK, so he had a bad year, and not comparable, but Cargo had a pretty poor first season at the plate.
They wouldn’t crack the top 100 because they aren’t prospects any more.
I did not say they would’nt crack the top 100. I said they would not crack the top 20. Also do you think Escobar would still rank that high if eligable?
As for the mention of Perez
http://newberg.mlblogs.com/archives/2010/12/royals_trade_zack_greinke_and.html
But again I was simply implying I would have taken Perez and say Beltre over that quartet. Just my opinion though.
“How do you flip a 4-6 WAR SP with two yrs remaining on a deal for 4 players who would not even crack the top 20 on any 100 prospect list!”
Because teams simply don’t trade top 20 prospects – except for the Yankees, who prefer to buy their stars rather than develop them. But apparently they weren’t interested in Greinke. I think he made them anxious or something.
And everything I read says that the Rangers flat out were not trading Perez.
Hanley, Carlos Pena, Salty, Andy Laroche, Andy Marte, Cargo!
Yea they are *never* traded
I don’t recall the Yankees trading away a top 20 prospect ever. Nick Johnson wa already an establihed MLBer a well as Soriano. We’ve seen that they are reluctant to part with guy like Joba, Hughes, Kennedy (when he wa considered a top prospect), Montero, Bernie Williams, etc.
You might have to go all the wy back to Joe Rijo.
*apology for various typos
Where was Jay Buhner ranked?
Jay Buhner for Ken Phelps was one of the few that “got away”.
But my baseball people love Ken Phelps’ bat.
Austin Jackson was a top 20 prospect and he was traded.
Wasn’t Ruben Rivera top 20? And they were willing to trade Montero for Lee. It was Seattle that preferred Smoak.
Where can I find the data regarding BABIP by batted-ball type?
splits here on fangraphs
thx, i was gonna ask the same thing
i have to say, i get the BABIP argument and all that, but if there’s one type of player who i’d believe actually had a low BA on line drives for a reason, it’d be players like escobar: rookie shortstop with no power. gotta consider the possibility that his hits categorized as “line drives” just weren’t as good as other people’s. as at least a factor here. that he was just having a harder time getting them out of the infield. would be interested to see a video montage of all of them – if he really was getting robbed on snagged rockets, or if he just tends to hit loopers at the shortstop.
brewers fans, feel free to weigh in with informed opinions or smackdowns.
This was tossed about on amazinavenue about Ruben tejada’s low line drive babip, and that his xbabip didn’t account for his weak line drives.
“gotta consider the possibility that his hits categorized as “line drives” just weren’t as good as other people’s”
Not a bad surmise from my SSS viewings.
wily mo: I might be completely wrong on this, but I believe that there’s a speed element to classifying a ball in play as a “line drive”. It’s not just the trajectory. That being said, his line drives could still be on the low end, but it does make the low end a lot less low. Basically, I think they’ve narrowed this category of balls in play down to the point where they’ve mostly taken the skill out of it.
Again, that’s just my understanding and I could certainly be wrong.
ok. DC does say hit “hard enough” in the article, which implies something like that. but alcides did have a 21.5% LD%, which seems perfectly normal – i don’t know offhand what league average LD% is, but a twitter conversation i saw last night came up with 18.8%, although i don’t know if that’s the same system. but that would make 21.5 actually above-average.
which seems suspicious to me, if you’re measuring speed on the hits, and alcides is who he is.
Regression should help Escobar, but I’d spend some time watching him before counting on that. He was legitimately terrible as a hitter this season. Zero clue about what pitch was coming.
And it’s eke, Dave, not eek.
Also, I think you meant to say “without significant improvement” in the last paragraph, instead of “with significant improvement.” Regarding future performance, does it not matter at all that Cain had a higher BB% and ISO throughout the minors than Escobar did?
It surely does matter, but that brings up the scouts/stats intersection people commonly refer to when discussing prospect projections.
A guy who is tools-heavy and stats-light like Escobar (or even Adam Jones prior to the Bedard trade) will be more of a scouting projection, whereas a guy like Daric Barton (who is a pretty polished, completed hitter and has an extensive track record) is more of a stats projection.
Escobar draws tons of attention because of his fantastic glovework, and at times this might make the scouts overstate his offensive upside. Most of the time, they get it pretty close with premier talents.
Escobar’s xBABIP from last year was something like .310, so compared to the .264 number he put up, it was clear he’s due for some regression before you even look at this numbers on line drives.
Assuming he’s as good a defender as he’s hyped up to be, the Royals would probably be thrilled with .280/.330/.400 from Escobar. Still though, there’s probably no chance he becomes a star, and he does absolutely nothing to address their horrible lack of OBP.
Considering this was probably the most valuable player in the deal the Brewers parted with, I’d say they made a hell of a deal here.
A .280/.330/.400 with plus fielding and he is in the top 10 SS in WAR, possibly the top 5.
Speculation is fun
It’s also fun when hypothetical numbers get more and more inflated as this discussion continues.
I feel like .240/.290/.330 is a safe line for Escobar going forward
So you think a 24-year-old former prospect who just had a .264-BABIP season after regularly posting BABIPs above .330 throughout the minors is going to continue to hit at that exact same level? That sounds pretty speculative to me.
“It’s also fun when hypothetical numbers get more and more inflated as this discussion continues.”
I agree. I have no way of verifying it of course, but I suspect that the .280/.330/.400 triple slash smells an awful lot like Mr. Nugent’s butt. That would be the upper bound of most Escobar projections I’d reckon.
Escobar will steal a lot more this season now that he’s not in front of the pitcher.
Yes. Unfortunately, even if he’s phenomenally successful that won’t add more than 3-5 runs to his projected value.
I believe Escobar has the potential to be a +10 run defender at shortstop. That’s how sold I am on his defense. He doesn’t have to hit much to be a good player with that caliber of glovework.
I think that’s more fair than projecting him to improve significantly with the bat. Going inside UZR, he took a hit due to errors, but his range factor was very good. I’m not a fan of this part of the deal, except that he’s better than Yuni (and I can’t take one more year of a swing-at-anything SS out-homering our supposedly stud 1Bman).
I don’t see any reason why he can’t improve SOME on offense, especially given his BABIP last season, and the fact that he was a rookie. It’s unlikely he will ever be even an average offensive player, but if he can be a plus-plus defender and hit just a little more than he did in ’10 that’s still a great player to have around on the cheap for three years.
Just regressing the numbers from 2010, it looks like Escobar will bounce back. If he hits .280/.330/.380, steals 30 bases, and plays defense like he can, he’s at least a 3 WAR player – for the next five years, at bargain prices.
If Cain regresses to average production, that’s another 2.0 WAR over a season – once again, at bargain prices.
Even if neither prospect really improves, they’ll produce almost what Zack will over the course of a season. And we have both of them for the next five years, at positions at which we were weak organizationally.
This trade is a huge win for the Royals, even when you don’t consider that we got a good pitching prospect, AND WE GOT RID OF YUNI!
While I think this is well-stated if a tad optimistic, I definitely would not call this a huge win for the Royals. Lots of “ifs” in this deal, which is actually the one reason why even though I’m not overwhelmed by either Cain or Escobar, the huge gambles that Dayton and his staff believe in but everybody else is meh on have paid off pretty well. For me Jeffress is a more important “if” than the other two, because I’m not sure Cain is even a CF in two years. Dyson’s defense is just incredible, and if he can stay healthy at Omaha this year he has believers within the organization. If Dave’s projection for Cain is right, Dyson might hit enough to be more valuable. As much as I like the projectable value component of the deal for Cain and Escobar, Jeffress is the only guy they truly don’t have one of in their system, and a guy with the potential to be truly dominant in an important role.
“Dyson”
My feeling was that they had options in Dyson, D. Robinson and orlando that might be as good or better than what Cain offers. Cain seems to clearly be the fourth piece of this puzzle in terms of value.
Thank you everyone for the outstanding analysis. Its probably the best breakdown of the trade I’ve seen anywhere.
Two comments. (1) My non-analytical eyeball assessment of the pair was that Cain’s defense was outstanding and Escobar’s was erratic and unreliable. On offense, both were strictly banjo hitters, with Cain having a much more disciplined approach. But yes, everyone has always said that Escobar has tremendous upside. I just didn’t really see it. On the other hand, one of the pitchers Kansas City received, Jeffress, looked very impressive in September… he just needs to stay away from the Bob Marleys.
What’s the story with this shortstop the Brewers got as a throw-in? Everywhere I read I see people vomiting when they mention his defense. Is it that bad? Melvin has him penciled in as a starter, but Melvin has never had any regard for defensive value, so that doesn’t give me any comfort. The Brewers defensive holes might make their pitching staff depreciate in value.
Go to Royals Review and read what they are saying about Yuni. There are guys who like this trade simply because they got rid of Betancourt. He’s rated as the worst regular on a contending team. He should never be a starter unless your team plays beer league softball. Even then…
and yet, Betancourt was equally valuable as Alcides Escobar in 2010.
The Royals had deals in place with both the Nationals and the Blue Jays and Zack exercised his no-trade. Boston and New York we’re passing on him. You also don’t trade him within the division without a majot haul. So, who does that leave?? The Dodgers were interested but were looking for a third team to get involved…who else…the Rangers made an offer during the winter meetings that was heavy on lower level prosepects and did not include Martin Perez.
Sure is easy to sit here and say, “I can’t believe they didn’t trade him for Montero, Nunez, Betances…etc, or for Profar, Perez, Beltre, Holland…
Those deals weren’t out there. And with the wave that is coming (Mouse, Hosmer, Myers, Colon, Montgomery, Lamb, Duffy, etc) they didn’t need to get superstars back. They had defensive hole at SS and CF, what helps out young pitchers the most?? Up the middle defense…
Also, if this trade was made a year ago, people would be raving that the Royals just got a top 15 player and the best SS in the minors. A bad offensive rookie year for a 23yr old SS a career does not make.
Take a listen to Buster Olney in this podcast on 810 in KC. Level headed stuff…
http://www.810whb.com/podcasts
“You also don’t trade him within the division”
It sounds like the problem may have been that Moore took that to the extreme and insisted on not trading within the A.L., much less the division.
*eke*
incorrect use of benefactor in paragraph two. please revise and repost