Fan Projection Targets – 01/06/10

Commenter Derek mentioned last week that neither Dan Haren nor Brandon Webb had crossed our 30-ballot threshold, so this edition of our Fan Projection Targets goes out to him. Today’s targets, in no particular order, are: Dan Haren, Brandon Webb, and Billy Buckner. Now go project the hell out of them.

Haren cemented his place among the majors’ best starters last year, posting a 3.08 xFIP while topping 200 IP for the fifth consecutive year.

Webb, after having also having topped 200 IP for five consecutive years, pitched all of four innings last year while dealing with shoulder problems.

Though he had a 6.40 ERA last year, Buckner’s 3.95 xFIP suggests that he has the skill to succeed. He’s tentatively slated as Arizona’s fifth starter.




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Carson Cistulli occasionally publishes spirited ejaculations at The New Enthusiast.


7 Responses to “Fan Projection Targets – 01/06/10”

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  1. The Hit Dog says:

    Ok just did my civic duty. But I’m confused. How can FG calculate stats like WHIP and LOB% when we don’t have an opportunity to project hits allowed (just BB/9)?

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  2. LittlePanda says:

    Also, how come the fan projections include Saves, but I don’t see a place to project them?

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    • Toffer Peak says:

      This has been explained in other comments but basically although the Fans pick most of the underlying components there are some under the hood calculations that use those inputs to extrapolate other stats. That is if the fans predict 600 PAs for a .380 wOBA leadoff hitter on a .345 wOBA team then the calcualttions may spit out a projection of 110 Runs and 80 RBIs.

      Same with saves, you select what their role and innings pitched will be; that combined with their projected ERA and overall team quality should give an idea of how many saves they should get.

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  3. Derek says:

    Cool! Fangraphs shout out. I am honored.

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  4. dprat says:

    Now that Derek has gotten his 15 nanoseconds of fame, my turn. May I respectfully submit that “proven” closers are way under-represented in the players who have crossed the 30 projection barrier. Among those not there yet: Nathan, Broxton, Bell, Marmol, Brian Wilson, Street, Jenks, Hoffman, Lidge, etc etc. Might we target a few of these?

    Thanks.

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  5. mcrawford620 says:

    Right now Billy Buckner is projected for 32 starts and 42 games…that’s seems doubtful. In the rotation all year, makes virtually every start, and gets in some bullpen work a couple of times a month?

    I know, it’s just a formula quirk. But some of those GS projections seem weird, like projecting Dan Haren for 36 GS.

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  6. crix says:

    Brandon Webb will mos def be a top starter next year but, Dan Haren surpassed him for the ace of the staff, which could have been even better next season if they didn’t give up Max Scherzer.(bad move for the future) Not to sure about Buckner yet, still a little early to tell.

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