FAN Projection Targets: Five Cuban Emigrants

Last week, FanGraphs CEO and founder David Appelman announced that the ballots for the 2014 FAN Projections are now available for the tender ministrations of this site’s readership. With a view to ensuring that all notable players are addressed sufficiently — and also to producing content while managing editor Dave Cameron is away this week on a pleasure vacation — the present author is highlighting certain players who are lacking in ballots.

Before casting a ballot, don’t forget this note from Appelman’s announcement post:

Please note that everything this year is a rate stat. You’re projecting 2B+3B, HR, SB, and Fielding as a measure of 150 games (basically a full season). The player’s previous stats are shown per 150 games in the projection ballot too. This will make changing playing time projections much easier as you’ll only have to change the games played portion.

Now, here are five players for the reader’s consideration — all of whom have emigrated from Cuba at some point over the last five years:

Player: Jose Abreu, 27, 1B
2013 Line: ca. 174 PA, .298/.393/.576, 13.2% BB, 24.1% K in Cuba
Notes: Signed by Chicago White Sox to six-year, $68 million contract this last October after defecting in August. Expected to serve as club’s starting first baseman. Stats here are translations from Cuban numbers, care of Clay Davenport.

¡Submit Projection for Jose Abreu!

Player: Alexander Guerrero, 27, 2B
2012* Line: ca. 315 PA, .215/.280/.408, 8.3% BB, 18.7% K in Cuba
Notes: Signed by Los Angeles Dodgers to four-year, $28 million contract in October after defecting in January. Expected to serve as Dodgers starting second baseman. As with Abreu, stats here are translations from Cuban numbers.

¡Submit Projection for Alexander Guerrero!

Player: Adeiny Hechavarria, 25, SS
2013 Line: 578 PA, .227/.267/.298, 5.2% BB, 16.6% K, 53 wRC+ at MLB
Notes: Defected in 2009 and signed four-year, $10 million contract with Toronto the next April. Traded to Miami in November of 2012 as part of trade that sent majority of Marlins roster to Blue Jays. Noted for terrific defensive skills. Compiled decidedly negative WAR figure this past season.

¡Submit Projection for Adeiny Hechavarria!

Player: Leonys Martin, 26, CF
2013 Line: 508 PA, .260/.313/.385, 5.5% BB, 20.5% K, 87 wRC+ at MLB
Notes: Defected from Cuba in 2010 while playing tournament in Taiwan. Signed with Texas in April of 2011 for five years and $15.5 million. Started 109 games in center field last year, following offseason departure of Josh Hamilton to Angels.

¡Submit Projection for Leonys Martin!

Player: Henry Urrutia, 27, COF
2013 Line: 224 PA, .365/.433/.550, 10.7% BB, 16.1% K, 174 wRC+ at Double-A
Notes: Defected to Haiti in September of 2011 before signing with Baltimore in July of 2012. Made debut in affiliated baseball last April, also making appearances at Triple-A and the majors. Candidate to play left field for 2014 Orioles.

¡Submit Projection for Henry Urrutia!




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Carson Cistulli occasionally publishes spirited ejaculations at The New Enthusiast.

7 Responses to “FAN Projection Targets: Five Cuban Emigrants”

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  1. Thufir says:

    Rusney Castillo says hello….

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  2. Froglegs Jackson says:

    If Abreu’s numbers translate better than Cespedes’, Puig’s, Martin’s, etc why is there so much skepticism surrounding his bat?

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    • Matty Brown says:

      I don’t know if there is skepticism per say, more just an unpredictability.

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    • Tim says:

      Some scouts say he CRUSHES upper 80s fastballs and struggles against fastballs faster than 90. The number of Cuban League pitchers that average less than 90 mph versus the number of MLB pitchers that average less than 90 is why some don’t believe a translation can be made straight from the numbers.

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      • Froglegs Jackson says:

        Sounds more like a scouting cliche than something that will actually come up in games… But we’ll see.

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        • ankle explosion hr celebration says:

          Indeed. Nothing magical happens once fastballs begin to be accelerated past 90mph. There’s not a phase transition. Presumably you just have to start your swing slightly earlier.

          Given how much better his bat is than any of the other Cuban emigres, I’m pretty optimistic. But then again, as you say, we shall see..

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  3. Brian Cartwright says:

    the stats for Jose Abreu are only for the 1st half. In 2013, for the first time, the Cuban league relegated teams halfway through the season into two divisons. It was hard to find 2nd round stats for awhile, but they are now back online.

    For the full 2013 regular season, Abreu batted 345/481/617 in 77 games, 337 PA. It was somewhat of a down year, after hitting 399/532/822, 453/597/986 and 394/542/837 the prior three years.

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