FAN Projection Targets: Some Very Compelling Starters

Last week, FanGraphs CEO and founder David Appelman announced that the ballots for the 2014 FAN Projections are now available for the tender ministrations of this site’s readership. With a view to ensuring that all notable players are addressed sufficiently — and also to producing content while managing editor Dave Cameron is away this week on a pleasure vacation — the present author is highlighting certain players who are lacking in ballots.

Before casting a ballot, don’t forget this note from Appelman’s announcement post:

Please note that everything this year is a rate stat. You’re projecting 2B+3B, HR, SB, and Fielding as a measure of 150 games (basically a full season). The player’s previous stats are shown per 150 games in the projection ballot too. This will make changing playing time projections much easier as you’ll only have to change the games played portion.

Now, here are some very compelling starters for the reader’s consideration:

Player: Alex Cobb, 26, RHP
2013 Line: 143.1 IP, 8.41 K/9, 2.83 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9, 3.36 FIP at MLB
Notes: Despite having been generally less celebrated than teammate Matt Moore as a prospect — and certainly featuring less in the way of armspeed — nevertheless finished 2013 with the second-highest WAR (behind David Price) among Rays pitchers. Has increased strikeout rate each of last two seasons while also recording ground-ball rates of 54% or greater. Named after a famous salad, definitely.

¡Submit Projection for Alex Cobb!

Player: Corey Kluber, 28, RHP
2013 Line: 147.1 IP, 8.31 K/9, 2.02 BB/9, 0.92 HR/9, 3.30 FIP at MLB
Notes: Entered the 2013 season as a 27-year-old having recorded just 67.1 innings in the majors; ended it as fixture in very strong rotation. Discussed changes to repertoire with FanGraphs. Bathed in warm, golden light, according to reports.

¡Submit Projection for Corey Kluber!

Player: Scott Kazmir, 30, LHP
2013 Line: 158.0 IP, 9.23 K/9, 2.68 BB/9, 1.08 HR/9, 3.51 FIP at MLB
Notes: After rise and subsequent fall, rose (rised?) again in 2013 to record 78 xFIP- and 2.7 WAR with Cleveland. Fastball averaged 92.1 mph, according to PITCHf/x. Signed two-year, $22 million deal with Oakland this offseason.

¡Submit Projection for Scott Kazmir!

Player: Tyson Ross, 27, RHP
2013 Line: 125.0 IP, 8.57 K/9, 3.17 BB/9, 0.58 HR/9, 3.20 FIP at MLB
Notes: Former Oakland prospect who recorded career-best 91 xFIP- and 1.6 WAR (both park-adjusted numbers, one notes) with San Diego last season. Joined rotation in July to good effect. Was National League’s most unhittable starter — until September 19th, at least, when Jeff Sullivan considered Ross in these pages.

¡Submit Projection for Tyson Ross!

Player: Danny Salazar, 24, RHP
2013 Line: 52.0 IP, 11.25 K/9, 2.60 BB/9, 1.21 HR/9, 3.16 FIP at MLB
Notes: Entered 2013 season absent from most/all notable top-100 preseason prospect lists; ended it by starting Cleveland’s wild-card play-in game. Throws a split-change known to provoke mystical experiences. Is likely to be fixture in Cleveland’s 2014 rotation.

¡Submit Projection for Danny Salazar!




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Carson Cistulli occasionally publishes spirited ejaculations at The New Enthusiast.


6 Responses to “FAN Projection Targets: Some Very Compelling Starters”

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  1. Tom says:

    My projection, I will draft all of these guys too high in my fantasy drafts

    +11 Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. buddyglass says:

    Have you guys considered game-ifying the fan projections? Turn it into a contest. $10 buy-in and each contestant has to rate all players identified as “relevant” by the FanGraphs staff. Winner is based on subsequent regular season performance of rated players. Winner gets the pot, i.e. cash prize. If new players became relevant after the initial contest is announced then roll them into a second ratings contest that involves only those players.

    Not only would this system guarantee a decent number of ballots for “fringe” players, having a buy-in (and cash prize) would probably also improve the accuracy of the ratings.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Cybo says:

      This sounds like something I seen online somewhere. Fantasy baseball I think its called.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • buddyglass says:

        Yes and no. You can take draft results from fantasy baseball leagues and come up with a crowd-sourced ranking of players based on draft position and/or auction value, but that doesn’t give you stat projections.

        Also, unlike fantasy baseball, what I proposed is a one-time thing. There’s no managing of a team mid-season. You just project stats for every “relevant” player and then let the season play out.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

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