Fan Projections Update

Bill Baer of Crashburn Alley yesterday wrote an article titled, “FanGraphs Fan Projections Are Craaaaazy”. And there certainly was something crazy going on with some players on the Braves.

Long story short: I’ve made some updates and the Braves projections have returned to sanity and now look like this:

Player       Fans   CarAvg    Diff
Heyward, J   .393   .376      .017
McCannn, B   .360   .364     -.004
Uggla, D     .365   .359      .006
McLouth, N   .337   .343     -.006
Prado, M     .351   .352     -.001
Freeman, F   .332   .213      .119
Gonzalez, A  .294   .298     -.004

Player        Fans    CarAvg    Diff
Hanson, T     3.25     3.38    -0.13
Lowe, D       3.94     3.80     0.14
Minor, M      3.83     3.77     0.06
Jurrjens, J   4.02     3.85     0.17
Hudson, T     3.98     3.82     0.16



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David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.


11 Responses to “Fan Projections Update”

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  1. SeaWolf says:

    Was it only the Braves’ projections that were off or were other teams/players affected as well?

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    • The one other player that saw a big change was Albert Pujols. Other than that I think it was only the braves. This issue only popped up in the past couple days due to the introduction of some bad ballots that weren’t being properly validated.

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  2. Fred says:

    This long story sounds interesting to elaborate upon.

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  3. Biased Fan says:

    I’m a Braves Fan, and let me say I’ve thought about attempting to influence reality by dropping some ridiculous stats on J-Hey’s player projections, but it looks like someone already tried it. I looked at projection leaders yesterday and thought, “Hmm, Jason right behind Pujols in value… I like it.

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  4. CircleChange11 says:

    Fans over-rate …

    [1] Players on their favorite team.
    [2] Prospects.

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  5. Heyward says:

    What is CarAvg?

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  6. Ricky says:

    “Clearly the result of the overwhelming mid-market southeast media bias.”

    This.

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  7. Mike says:

    @Heyward: Career Average I believe

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  8. phoenix2042 says:

    what were the projections before?

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    • Biased Fan says:

      I copied them down as part of some data gathering for my own porpoises (the swimming ones) on the 14th – the day before they were reverted to sanity. The formatting sucks because I copied them straight from excel. Too lazy to fix.

      Player (BT) fWAR fFIP
      Chipper Jones 4.6 0.389
      Jason Heyward 7.8 0.426
      Alex Gonzolez 3.8 0.339
      Brian McCann 6.0 0.383
      Dan Uggla 4.9 0.382
      Martin Prado 4.3 0.371
      Freddie Freeman 3.3 0.368
      Nate McClouth 3.9 0.380

      Player (SP) fWAR fFIP
      Tim Hudson 5.0 3.51
      Derek Lowe 4.9 3.43
      Tommy Hanson 7.7 2.63
      Jiar Jurjjens 4.4 3.46
      Mike Minor- 3.9 3.24

      Player (RP) fWAR fFIP
      Jonny Venters 1.5 3.03
      Craig Kimbrell 2.0 2.68
      Eric O’Flaherty_ 1.0 3.50

      Vote -1 Vote +1

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