FanGraphs 2014 Crowd Predictions: National League

On Friday, managing editor Dave Cameron published the various (and probably wrong) FanGraphs staff predictions for the American League and National League — shortly after which the present author provided the readership their own opportunity to make embarrassing predictions.

Below are the results of that same exercise for the National League. The results for the American League, published earlier this afternoon, are available here. Note that, owing to rounding error, percentages might add up to slightly more or less than 100%.

Division Winners

West: L.A. (89%), San Fran. (6%), Arizona (3%), San Diego (2%), Colorado (1%)
Central: St. Louis (87%), Pitt. (8%), Cinn. (5%), Milwaukee (1%), Chicago (0%)
East: Washington (82%), Atlanta (17%), Miami (1%), Phil. (1%), New York (0%)

As Cameron noted on Friday, there was near-total consensus with regard to the staff’s divisional picks. This is also largely the case with the crowd’s divisional selections. Moreover, just as Atlanta was the only club besides the triumvirate of Los Angeles, St. Louis, and Washington to receive as many as three of the staff’s 31 votes, so Atlanta is the only club here to appear on more than 10% of the crowd’s ballots.

Wild Card Winners (Top Five)

Note: Consensus division winners are excluded, and the non-consensus winners have had their division title selections added to their Wild Card selections, so for the teams listed below, their placement is based upon their combined number of total predicted playoff appearances, either through WC or Divisional victory.

Atlanta (47% WC, 17% DIV)
Pittsburgh (42% WC, 8% DIV)
San Francisco (26% WC, 6% DIV)
Cincinnati (23% WC, 5% DIV)
Arizona (11% WC, 3% DIV)

Predicted Playoff Appearances by Overall Percentage

Los Angeles: 97%
Washington: 96%
St. Louis: 96%
Atlanta: 63%
Pittsburgh: 50%
San Francisco: 32%
Cincinnati: 28%
Arizona: 13%
San Diego: 8%
Milwaukee: 6%
Colorado: 6%
Philadelphia: 1%
Miami: 1%
Chicago: 1%
New York: 1%

Once again, three clubs appear to be regarded as virtual certainties to qualify for the postseason. Both the staff and the crowd view the fourth and final playoff berth as considerably more open.

MVP (Top Five)

1. Bryce Harper: 21%
2. Andrew McCutchen: 15%
3. Paul Goldschmidt: 10%
4. Hanley Ramirez: 8%
5. Joey Votto: 7%

Among the staff, no single NL field player received a vote on more than five of the 31 ballots cast. There are similar questions among the crowd with regard to the likely best player in the National League. Of note: despite finishing among the staff’s top five and also receiving entirely favorable projections, San Francisco catcher Buster Posey was omitted from the crowd’s own top five.

Cy Young (Top Five)

1. Clayton Kershaw: 46%
2. Stephen Strasburg: 14%
3. Jose Fernandez: 9%
4. Adam Wainwright: 9%
5. Madison Bumgarner: 7%

Owing to how he also received a number of MVP votes, it’s not surprising to find Clayton Kershaw’s name atop this list. More surprising was the support for Turd Sandwich, a pitcher of whom the author was previously unaware.

Rookie of the Year (Top Five)

1. Billy Hamilton: 19%
2. Gregory Polanco: 14%
3. Archie Bradley: 10%
4. Kolten Wong: 10%
5. Javier Baez: 9%

The author would like to extend a debt of gratitude to the reader who felt that my mother was the favorite for Rookie of the Year honors this season. My mother, likewise, sends along her regards.

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Carson Cistulli occasionally publishes spirited ejaculations at The New Enthusiast.

26 Responses to “FanGraphs 2014 Crowd Predictions: National League”

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  1. Feltoneaston says:

    I didn’t get any of them right.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Doug Lampert says:

      How can you know? Unless you picked the Rockies to win the AL East or something similar we won’t know if you were right or not till the end of the season.

      The objective of a poll like this is not to guess what other people will say, it is to be correct at predicting what will happen by the end of the season.

      -10 Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Well-Beered Englishman says:

    Oh, Cistulli’s mother is no rookie.

    +66 Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. kdm628496 says:

    Giant Douche for Cy Young! Turd Sandwich is a turd sandwich.

    +10 Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. MDL says:

    How many ballots were submitted?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. Turd Sandwich says:

    My K/9 is just over 8 and I’m under 2 walks per 9 with about a home run every 27 outs. I got some creeeeeeeedenshuls man.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  6. Generic Dork says:

    I’m surprised that Andrew McCutcheon and Zach Grienke didn’t receive votes

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  7. Outside of 2009 has Grienke had anything even close to a Cy Young season? He has only cleared 5 WAR one other time in either BBref or FG…and barely at that.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Javen says:

      Last year he was 8th in the Cy Young voting so that’s pretty close. Also, in 2012 he split time between AL and NL effectively taking him out of any discussion. His 2012 with a combined 15 wins, 200 Ks and 3.70 ERA would have at least put him in the discussion. Does he surpass any of those guys in likelihood for Cy Young? No. But I think he’s closer than you make it seem.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Yeah, he is a really good pitcher, but according to WAR at least, he has never even been close to deserving #2. Of course the writers don’t care about WAR…so if he gets tons of run support on a high profile team like the Dodgers and Kershaw misses some tome, I could see him finishing high in the race regardless of deservedness. So i guess you are right about that.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  8. Shrewd Cat says:

    Sorry. I got confused- I thought this about predicting how big the crowds each NL team would get.
    re: ‘FanGraphs 2014 Crowd Predictions: National League’

    My prediction- Marlins lowest.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  9. DoucheX says:

    I think the person that voted for your mother as ROY was trying to tell you that she isn’t really your mother, if you follow my train of thought.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  10. GilaMonster says:

    Like I said:

    Bold Prediction

    The San Diego Padres will claim a NL Wild Card and Andrew Cashner will be top 5 for NL Cy Young,

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Bil Bo Baggins says:

      how do you write in bold?

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Jason B says:

      Well they are currently on pace to go 162-0.

      If they do, I feel virtually certain they will at least get a wild card berth.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • jayman4 says:

      I would feel much, much better had Luebke had not gone down, again. And then JJ, albeit for something less serious, but had to count on that. Weiland and Luebke continuing to battle the injury demons hurts them, but they could easily surprise.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  11. Hufrnutr says:


    Vote -1 Vote +1

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