FanGraphs 2014 Staff Predictions: National League

The 2014 Major League Baseball season kicks off for real on Monday — no, random days where the Dodgers play someone and it’s the only game of the day don’t count — and so, as a baseball site, we are compelled to offer our staff’s predictions for the upcoming season. We are compelled because you like to read our staff predictions, even though they are terrible. And boy are they terrible.

Among last year’s gems were things like Aaron Hicks, American League Rookie of the Year. Aaron Hicks did not get a single vote by any one voter on a Rookie of the Year ballot last year. We also had the Angels and Blue Jays making the playoffs. Predicting baseball is silly. Everyone is terrible at it, including us. But as long as you know that going in, it’s still kind of a fun exercise.

Okay, so, on to the picks. We did the AL this morning, so now for the NL.

Division Winners

West: Los Angeles (30), San Francisco (1), San Diego (0), Arizona (0), Colorado (0)
Central: St. Louis (30), Pittsburgh (1), Cincinnati (0), Chicago (0), Milwaukee (0)
East: Washington (28), Atlanta (3), Phiadelphia (0), Miami (0), New York (0)

People like to accuse groups of authors, like the ones we have here, of “groupthink”. Well, if you want to accuse us of such a thing, we have just provided you with evidence to support your claim. You are welcome.

The other possibility is that there really is just a clear separation between the NL contenders and NL pretenders, with the senior circuit hosting a bunch of rebuilding teams who have no realistic chance to contend in 2014. Or we’re biased and we hate your team. Your call.

Wild Card Winners

Note: Consensus division winners are excluded, and the non-consensus winners have had their division title selections added to their Wild Card selections, so for the teams listed below, their placement is based upon their combined number of total predicted playoff appearances, either through WC or Divisional victory.

Atlanta (17 WC, 3 DIV)
Pittsburgh (14 WC, 1 DIV)
Cincinnati (10 WC, 0 DIV)
San Francisco (7 WC, 1 DIV)
San Diego (5 WC, 0 DIV)
Arizona (2 WC, 0 DIV)
Colorado (1 WC, 0 DIV)
Milwaukee (1 WC, 0 DIV)

Total Predicted Playoff Appearances

This is the number of all authors who voted for each team to make the postseason, either through the division or the wild card.

Los Angeles: 31
St. Louis: 31
Washington: 31
Atlanta: 20
Pittsburgh: 15
Cincinnati: 10
San Francisco: 8
San Diego: 5
Arizona: 2
Colorado: 1
Milwaukee: 1
Philadelphia: 0
Miami: 0
New York: 0
Chicago: 0

Every single FanGraphs author who filled out our spreadsheet penciled in the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Nationals for the postseason in some fashion. There was less agreement on which second tier teams would emerge and claim the other two spots, but our staff is basically convinced that the three top teams in the NL are clearly in a class of their own.

MVP

Bryce Harper: 5
Hanley Ramirez: 4
Buster Posey: 4
Paul Goldschmidt: 4
Andrew McCutchen: 3
Yadier Molina: 3
Troy Tulowitzki: 2
Joey Votto: 2
Justin Upton: 1
Ryan Braun: 1
Matt Holliday: 1
Carlos Gonzalez: 1

Bryce Harper received a plurality of the votes, but by no means anything close to a majority, as our panel selected a wide and varied number of players as legitimate MVP candidates. And really, this feels pretty accurate to me, as the NL is home to a strong class of excellent players, with no very clear best player that stands above his peers. I don’t know that I’d buy into Ryan Braun ever receiving an MVP vote from the BBWAA again, but most of the rest of the names on the list are entirely reasonable selections.

Cy Young

Clayton Kershaw: 18
Adam Wainwright: 3
Jose Fernandez: 3
Madison Bumgarner: 3
Stephen Strasburg: 2
Zack Greinke: 1
Homer Bailey: 1

No toss-up here: Kershaw is the best, and everyone else is playing catch up. As with any award selection involving pitchers, you should always take the field over any individual player, but if forced to pick a player as the favorite, Kershaw is the guy.

Rookie of the Year

Billy Hamilton: 7
Gregory Polanco: 7
Archie Bradley: 7
Chris Owings: 5
Travis D’Arnaud: 3
Javier Baez: 1
Jameson Taillon: 1

A three way tie for first, with a pair of athletic outfielders and a power throwing pitcher all checking in as favorites. Like with the MVP, there is really no clear favorite here, allowing for any number of reasonable selections. Unlike with the MVP, a large consideration for the prediction has to be the date or arrival, as Polanco’s chances to win the award are basically tied to whether or not the Pirates keep him down long enough to avoid Super Two status. If he (or Bradley, for that matter) is up by the beginning of May, his chances increase dramatically.

For those interested, and for future mocking purposes, here is a table with each author’s selections.

Author	West	Central	East	Wild Card	Wild Card	MVP	Cy Young	Rookie
Alan Harrison	Los Angeles	St. Louis	Atlanta	Washington	Pittsburgh	Ramirez	Wainwright	Hamilton
Bill Petti	Los Angeles	St. Louis	Washington	Atlanta	San Fran	Posey	Kershaw	Polanco
Blake Murphy	Los Angeles	St. Louis	Washington	Cincinnati	San Fran	Tulowitzki	Kershaw	Bradley
Brad Johnson	Los Angeles	St. Louis	Atlanta	Colorado	Washington	Tulowitzki	Kershaw	Hamilton
Brett Talley	Los Angeles	St. Louis	Washington	San Diego	Atlanta	Braun	Kershaw	Polanco
Carson Cistulli	Los Angeles	St. Louis	Washington	Pittsburgh	San Diego	Posey	Greinke	Owings
Chris Cwik	Los Angeles	St. Louis	Washington	Atlanta	Cincinnati	Harper	Kershaw	Owings
Colin Zarzycki	Los Angeles	St. Louis	Washington	Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	Harper	Kershaw	Bradley
Dave Cameron	Los Angeles	St. Louis	Washington	Pittsburgh	Atlanta	Molina	Kershaw	Polanco
David G Temple	Los Angeles	St. Louis	Washington	Pittsburgh	Atlanta	Molina	Fernandez	Hamilton
David Laurila	San Fran	St. Louis	Washington	Los Angeles	Cincinnati	Posey	Strasburg	Hamilton
David Wiers	Los Angeles	St. Louis	Washington	Atlanta	Cincinnati	Upton	Kershaw	d’Arnaud
Eno Sarris	Los Angeles	Pittsburgh	Washington	St. Louis	Atlanta	Goldschmidt	Kershaw	Polanco
Howard Bender	Los Angeles	St. Louis	Washington	Pittsburgh	Arizona	Goldschmidt	Bumgarner	Bradley
Jason Collette	Los Angeles	St. Louis	Washington	Atlanta	Milwaukee	Harper	Bailey	Hamilton
Jeff Sullivan	Los Angeles	St. Louis	Washington	Pittsburgh	San Fran	Molina	Kershaw	Polanco
Jeff Zimmerman	Los Angeles	St. Louis	Washington	Arizona	Cincinnati	Ramirez	Wainwright	Bradley
Jeremy Blachman	Los Angeles	St. Louis	Washington	Cincinnati	San Diego	Holliday	Kershaw	Bradley
John Paschal	Los Angeles	St. Louis	Washington	Cincinnati	Atlanta	Votto	Kershaw	Hamilton
Karl de Vries	Los Angeles	St. Louis	Atlanta	Washington	Pittsburgh	McCutchen	Kershaw	Owings
Marc Hulet	Los Angeles	St. Louis	Washington	Pittsburgh	San Fran	Posey	Strasburg	d’Arnaud
Matt Klaassen	Los Angeles	St. Louis	Washington	Atlanta	Pittsburgh	McCutchen	Fernandez	d’Arnaud
Matt Yaspan	Los Angeles	St. Louis	Washington	Atlanta	Cincinnati	Harper	Kershaw	Taillon
Max Weinstein	Los Angeles	St. Louis	Washington	San Fran	Atlanta	Ramirez	Kershaw	Baez
Michael Barr	Los Angeles	St. Louis	Washington	Atlanta	Pittsburgh	Goldschmidt	Wainwright	Hamilton
Mike Bates	Los Angeles	St. Louis	Washington	Pittsburgh	San Fran	Gonzalez	Fernandez	Owings
Mike Petriello	Los Angeles	St. Louis	Washington	Atlanta	Pittsburgh	Goldschmidt	Kershaw	Polanco
Patrick Dubuque	Los Angeles	St. Louis	Washington	San Diego	Atlanta	McCutchen	Kershaw	Bradley
Paul Swydan	Los Angeles	St. Louis	Washington	San Diego	Pittsburgh	Votto	Bumgarner	Polanco
Wendy Thurm	Los Angeles	St. Louis	Washington	Atlanta	San Fran	Harper	Bumgarner	Bradley
Zach Sanders	Los Angeles	St. Louis	Washington	Cincinnati	Atlanta	Ramirez	Kershaw	Owings