FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 4/29/14

5:44
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Jeff and I will be here at 9 pm ET to nerd it up and/or down with you. In the meantime, please enjoy this wide array of polls. And by wide array, I mean four polls that cover two topics.

See you soon!

9:00
Paul Swydan: OK, let’s light this candle!

9:01
Comment From Evil Fredi Gonzalez
Looks like we’re going against one of the best pitchers in baseball tonight. Sounds like the time to throw out my backups who are all far worse both offensively AND defensively. They’ll never see it coming! MUAHAHAHAHAHA!

9:01
Paul Swydan: Mawahahahahahaha!

9:01
Comment From Shoeless Joe Jackson
Any chance Pete Rose is admitted to the HOF posthumously?

9:01
Paul Swydan: I suppose there’s always a chance, though I’m not holding my breath.

9:03
Comment From A Tribe Called Kipnis
Short on starters in both my AL and NL only leagues. Which about to be called up pitchers should I jump on in each league?

9:03
Paul Swydan: MARCUS. STROMAN. Six no-hit innings tonight, and he was lined up with McGowan.

9:03
Paul Swydan: Definitely not Archie Bradley, now that’s he’s damaged goods.

9:03
Paul Swydan: (Jeff is setting up a poll btw)

9:04
Comment From Os Nos
Even with Machado coming back, the O’s are pretty much stuck as a .500 team unless Ubaldo turns into Good Ubaldo and Gausman is immediately good, right?

9:04
Paul Swydan: I think there are a few other scenarios that involve them getting to 90 wins, but those are certainly big factors.

9:05
Comment From Hrkac Circus
What are the chances Deduno gets another shot at the Twins rotation? Pelfrey just really needs to go, everything about him is just terrible, and he’s not even being victimized by bad luck.

9:05
Paul Swydan: I don’t see the upside in Pelfrey or Deduno, to be honest. Rather give the kids a shot.

9:05
Comment From Wes
Both the NL West and AL Central look tighter than anticipated– who do you like there?

9:05
Paul Swydan: I went with the Dodgers and Indians before the season, and I haven’t seen anything to make me feel bad about those picks a month into the season.

9:06
Comment From Dungo
Should I drop Tyson Ross for Marcus Stroman in a 14team k/9 dynasty?

9:06
Paul Swydan: I would prefer to find someone worse than Ross, but I doubt you’ll really regret losing him in the end.

9:06
Comment From Rick
The Reds are 3-9 in one-run games: a sign of bad luck or a sign of a bad bullpen?

9:07
Paul Swydan: Little from column A, little from column B, little from column our leadoff hitter has a .300 OBP.

9:07
Comment From Brian
Hi guys – thanks for hosting the chat. Cingrani or minor? I got offered Rios for either one. To complicate matters I have an OF of Jennings, Braun, Cepedes and Gordon – so don’t see the need for the upgrade- but also move Jennings for Fister. Final deal would be Jennings/minor(or cingrani) for Rios/Fister?

9:07
Paul Swydan: You spelled one of those wrong, Jeff!

9:08
Paul Swydan: Also, come on, like I didn’t know about a guy named Odor. Sometimes you guys disappoint me…

9:08
Jeff Zimmerman: Yep, your right. Am I fired?

9:08
Paul Swydan: As to the question, I like Cingrani better.

9:08
Paul Swydan: You spelled your wrong too, Jeff! You clearly haven’t drunk enough yet!

9:09
Comment From Dungo
who gets better end of deal? Im thinking of offering my Kyle Seager for his Bogaerts (i have Brad Miller and Longo at 3B) Will Bogaerts > Seager next few years?

9:09
Jeff Zimmerman: I would make the trade in a heart beat.

9:09
Paul Swydan: If he isn’t a more relevant fantasy commodity by the end of this year, Bogaerts certainly will be more valuable than Seager in the coming years.

9:09
Comment From King Maron
Jeff is a moran

9:10
Comment From toot toot
your typo made me think we were being asked which prospect is most like paul

9:10
Comment From Edge O
Other than Ventura it has been a rough start for young AL Central SPs. Do E. Johnson and Carrasco make it back into the rotations this year? Long-term solid starters?

9:11
Jeff Zimmerman: Bauer may be a recent bet.

9:12
Paul Swydan: First off, Carrasco is 27. He’s not young.

And yes, I think Johnson will come around eventually. But he’s not a star.

9:12
Jeff Zimmerman: Meyers for Minnesota. Zimmer for KC once healthy

9:12
Comment From Price is right
What are the odds the Dodgers trade for David Price (e.g., Joc Pederson +)?

9:13
Jeff Zimmerman: Not for a few months.

9:13
Paul Swydan: I’ll say low. Given Moore’s surgery and the injuries to Cobb and Hellickson, I doubt the Rays could trade Price in-season and still field a competitive team this season.

9:13
Comment From Adam
How excited should we be about the probable upcoming debut of Trevor Bauer?

9:13
Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t say I’m excited, but I’m definitely intrigued.

9:14
Jeff Zimmerman: He already debuted once this season for a double header.

9:14
Paul Swydan: Also that.

9:14
Comment From Guest
The next CBA has to eliminate the draft pick compensation for FAs and the Super-Two, doesn’t it?

9:15
Paul Swydan: The former, I expect to be eliminated. The later, I don’t. The latter most effects players that are not yet in the union, and the union has consistently shown that it doesn’t give a damn about minor leaguers.

9:15
Paul Swydan: Latter not later, d’oh!

9:15
Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure what will happen

9:15
Comment From Art Vandelay
Who has the better year? Stanton or Pujols?

9:15
Paul Swydan: I’ll still say Stanton.

9:15
Jeff Zimmerman: Stanton

9:16
Comment From Should Be Paying Attention In Class
Bumgarner is going to right the ship soon right? Nearly every peripheral is in line with last year/career. SwgStr%, velo, batted ball data, K% are all the same. BB% a little up (maybe because his Fstr% is slightly lower) and his BABIP is sky high. Nothing to be worried about long term right?

9:16
Paul Swydan: Yeah, I’m not worried.

9:16
Jeff Zimmerman: Not worried at all.

9:17
Paul Swydan: I will say that I think Bumgarner’s line is skewed because of either random pinch-hit circumstances or that Bochy is treating him oddly. He has had three starts with 5 or less IP.

9:18
Comment From Tywin Lannister
Can I drop Dan Straily for streaming purposes in a 12-teamer?

9:18
Paul Swydan: Yeah, I’m not big on Straily.

9:18
Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, he is struggling.

9:18
Comment From zzz
Drop Morrow for Bauer???

9:18
Jeff Zimmerman: Yes.

9:18
Paul Swydan: Seems fine to me. Morrow is a total mystery at this point.

9:18
Comment From Stephen
What is greater at the end of the season: number of HRs by the Royals team, or number of HRs by Miggy, Chris Davis, and Prince Fielder Combined?

9:19
Paul Swydan: The former.

9:19
Jeff Zimmerman: Royals

9:19
Comment From Edge O
Tigers just stuttered another injury to Sanchez. What do they do for the rotation?

9:19
Paul Swydan: No problem, they have Fister coming back soon. Oh wait.

9:20
Jeff Zimmerman: Better hope Robbie Ray is the real deal.

9:20
Comment From Society
You starting Kluber in LAA tonight?

9:20
Paul Swydan: I would be if I owned him in any leagues. I don’t though, so I’m not.

9:20
Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, why not.

9:20
Comment From Jaack
Where is Billy Dee Williams. Lando Calrissian is the true power behind the force.

9:21
Paul Swydan: I feel like I heard awhile back that he will be involved at some point, but maybe I just wanted to hear that?

9:21
Jeff Zimmerman: Drinking some Malt Liquor

9:21
Paul Swydan: Thatta boy, Jeff.

9:21
Comment From Ryno
Who do you like better ROS, Nelson Cruz or Yasiel Puig?

9:21
Paul Swydan: Puig.

9:22
Jeff Zimmerman: Puig

9:22
Comment From Lars
Worst baseball card investment? Mine was Hensley “Bam Bam” Muelens.

9:23
Jeff Zimmerman: Trade a Michael Jordan RC for a Bo knows Bo card. I lost a couple thousand off that deal.

9:23
Paul Swydan: I once asked my mom to buy me a Robin Yount rookie card, but she didn’t want to pay the price, so she bought me one where the piece of the corner was torn. I tried to explain to her that while this card was cheaper, it was also worthless. She didn’t believe me.

9:23
Comment From Lars
I’m curious to see if Princess Leia has mastered the Force over the years.

9:23
Paul Swydan: That actually would be a cool storyline.

9:23
Comment From Kermit
Abreu & Stanton in the Homerun Derby…………..

9:24
Paul Swydan: (Fainted)

9:24
Jeff Zimmerman: Where’s Billy Hamilton.

9:24
Comment From Boba Fart
Cast the Fangraphs writers as Star Wars characters. Appelman or Cameron as Darth Vader? Blengino as C3PO? Wendy defaults as Princess Leia? Who would Sullivan and Swydan be?

9:25
Jeff Zimmerman: Barr is Han

9:25
Comment From Art Vandelay
Cistulli as Yoda?

9:26
Paul Swydan: Appelman is Yoda, Cameron is Obi Wan.

Sullivan is Darth Maul, Eno is General Grievous.

Zimmerman is Vader, Cistulli is Palpatine (bet you didn’t see that one coming)

I’m an Ewok.

9:26
Paul Swydan: Hmmm, who the hell else works for us?

9:26
Comment From Jake
Readers as stormtroopers?

9:27
Paul Swydan: Petriello is Luke, and I agree that Barr is Han Solo, and then yeah, Wendy is Leia, I guess. Although I think Temple could pull off being Leia too.

9:27
Paul Swydan: Murray Chass is a stormtrooper.

9:27
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Is Dayn the sarlacc pit?

9:27
Comment From Jaack
THe real question: Who is Chewy?

9:27
Jeff Zimmerman: Bender?

9:28
Comment From Art Vandelay
what kind of malt liquor?

9:28
9:28
Paul Swydan: Oh, I could be Chewy I guess. But since I made myself an Ewok … we’ll make Remington Chewy.

9:28
Paul Swydan: Or Woodrum. No, definitely Woodrum is Chewy.

9:28
Paul Swydan: All he makes are loud noises anyway.

9:28
Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her
Who do you think comes up first Zimmer or Stephenson?

9:28
Comment From toot toot
murray chass is obviously admiral motti

9:29
Paul Swydan: I’m a huge Star Wars nerd, and even I don’t know who Admiral Motti is.

9:29
Paul Swydan: And I’ll say Stephenson. Just as soon as Alfredo Simon is locked up.

9:29
Jeff Zimmerman: Zimmer may be a bit, he needs to get healthy first.

9:29
Comment From Guest
Dropping Jorge De La Rosa for Bauer

9:29
Paul Swydan: Ehhhh, I would hang on to Georgie.

9:30
Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, I hate having a pitcher I can only use half the time.

9:30
Comment From Jaack
Motti is the dude who’s lack of faith is disturbing. Come on Paul.

9:30
Paul Swydan: I didn’t know that dude had a name, sorry!

9:30
Comment From King Maron
What if you were rappers?

9:30
Paul Swydan: Come on guys, let’s try not to confuse Jeff.

9:31
Comment From Victor
Joey Gallo, Has he finally figured out an approach to minimize his whiffs? How does this affect his prospect status?

9:31
Jeff Zimmerman: I could be Wren on NWA

9:31
Paul Swydan: I don’t know, that’s the guy I had never heard of until last week. Ask Jeff, he knows alllllllllllllll about Joey Gallo!

9:31
Jeff Zimmerman: Paul, do you know who this Gallo guy is?

9:32
Paul Swydan: I know about Jerry Gallo!

http://en.wikiquote.org/wik…

9:32
Comment From Cistulli is Big Sean
does Seattle have the best beer selection in any park?\

9:32
Jeff Zimmerman: Don’t know.

9:32
Paul Swydan: I don’t know, Safeco is still on my list of parks to visit.

And don’t insult Cistulli like that.

9:33
Comment From Jaack
Literally everyone in Star Wars has a name, a comic book, two novels, and and entire fanfiction message board.

9:33
Paul Swydan: Yeah, well, it’s been a long time since I read a tiny sliver of the fan fiction books. Though I remember them being awesome.

9:33
Comment From Dan
Stroman has a 5.14 K/BB, how does that translate to the MLB?

9:34
Paul Swydan: He won’t be that good, but I expect him to be good.

9:34
Jeff Zimmerman: Usually K% and BB% each get 15% worse.

9:34
Paul Swydan: Check out Noah Woodward’s recent piece on him at THT:

http://www.hardballtimes.co…

9:34
Comment From Ryan
Bradley is hurt and we’ve heard about Polanco, Taveras and Singleton– who else should we be on the lookout for in the next few weeks?

9:35
Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t be on the lookout for Taveras. If he was coming up, they would have just called him up instead of Grichuk.

9:35
Jeff Zimmerman: I have stated him before, but keep an eye on Meyers with Minnesota.

9:35
Comment From madden_curser
Drop CC for Bauer?!

9:35
Paul Swydan: Not ready to give up on CC either.

9:36
Jeff Zimmerman: No, CC is starting to figure out the whole loss of velocity thing.

9:36
Comment From Art Vandelay
There was an article on mlb.com about long windups, who has your all time favorite windup?

9:36
Jeff Zimmerman: Fernando V.

9:37
Paul Swydan: I always like Hideo Nomo’s, and my dad used to go on and on about Luis Tiant’s when I was a kid. I’ve always liked Ubaldo’s. As odd as it is, it just seems amazing to me that he can get the ball to the plate pitching the way he does.

9:37
Paul Swydan: And Pedro. Obvs.

9:37
Comment From Brian
Who hits a HR first: Hosmer or Butler? Parlay: Over/Under May 15

9:37
Paul Swydan: Hosmer. Under – if under means before…

9:37
Jeff Zimmerman: Hosmer, under.

9:38
Paul Swydan: AGREEMENTS!

9:38
Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her
How long do you think it will take for Springer to start hitting well? There is no chance HOU will send him down right?

9:39
Paul Swydan: There is absolutely a chance that Houston sends him down if he is overmatched. The last thing they want to do is kill the kid’s confidence. Also, sending a player down to Triple-A is a big black mark against players in arbitration, and since the Astros are cheap now…yeah, it’s a possibility.

9:40
Comment From Devin
Ubaldo’s is like a pop and lock

9:40
Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t know. I would give him quite a bit of time. Issues right now seem BABIP driven.

9:40
Paul Swydan: It kind of is. It’s freaky. The ball almost hits the dirt of the rubber before he whips his arm up.

9:40
Comment From Guest
Any chance of getting day/night splits here on FG?

9:41
Jeff Zimmerman: I am not a fan, but can ask.

9:41
Paul Swydan: I like splits data as much as the next person, but I don’t really see the value in day’night splits. And honestly, it would be way down my list of asks for the Dark Overlord. He’s still gotta get P/PA on the player pages!

9:41
Comment From Art Vandelay
how many 10 WAR years can Mike Trout pump out?

9:42
Paul Swydan: I’ll say four. So, two more.

9:42
Jeff Zimmerman: That seems about right. The D and speed will begin to age soon.

9:42
Comment From Guest
Is Mike Trout secretly a Norse god descended to play baseball?

9:43
Paul Swydan: If he is, when do we get to meet his version of Sif?

9:43
Jeff Zimmerman: With the name Trout, he is from Atlantis.

9:43
Comment From dgrussel
Rasmus is just about worthless at this point, yes?

9:44
Paul Swydan: Ehhhhhhh….give it another couple of weeks.

9:44
Jeff Zimmerman: I think so.

9:44
Comment From dgrussel
Trout don’t live in the open ocean Jeff!

9:44
Jeff Zimmerman: Mike Trout is no ordinary trout.

9:45
Paul Swydan: Jeff = Oil Can Boyd.

“That’s what they get for building the ballpark on the ocean.” – Oil Can Boyd, after a game was fogged out in Cleveland

9:45
Comment From Dan
Yahoo has day night splits if desperate. Josh Hamilton is the only one with interesting splits

9:45
Comment From The crow that sits on Odins shoulder.
Odin’s gonna be pissed.

9:46
Paul Swydan: Didn’t Loki kill Odin?

9:46
Comment From John
Who benefits more from a rainy day, hitters or batters

9:46
Paul Swydan: Uh…

9:46
Jeff Zimmerman: I think fielders suffer the most, so hitters have the advantage.

9:47
Comment From madden_curser
Who would you be most comfortable with their pic on your teams box of Wheaties; Heyward, Myers, or Billy Hamilton.

9:47
Paul Swydan: Heyward, probably.

9:47
Jeff Zimmerman: Myers

9:47
Comment From King Maron
Any insight or #HotTakes on the Cistulli-Kluber breakup?

9:48
Paul Swydan: Cistulli broke up with Kluber? When did this happen?

9:49
Comment From King Maron
NERD of sub-11 for tonights game

9:49
Jeff Zimmerman: Carson is kind of like Annie from Bull Durham, he finds a new love each season.

9:49
Paul Swydan: Hmmmm.

9:49
Paul Swydan: This is true.

9:49
Comment From Guest
Barnes or Dickerson ros?

9:50
Paul Swydan: Dickerson. Though Barnes has more than double the plate appearances.

9:50
Jeff Zimmerman: ………..uuuhhhh Barnes

9:50
Comment From dgrussel
I’m trying to convince my girlfriend to watch Bull Durham because it has baseball…but it’s not really about baseball so I think she would be accepting. I just watched Love/Actually for a 3rd time with her this weekend instead.

9:50
Paul Swydan: Pick a better battle with your girlfriend. Bull Durham sucks.

9:51
Jeff Zimmerman: What Paul, let me guess, you like The Natural?

9:52
Paul Swydan: The Natural was OK, but I’m a Major League guy.

9:52
Comment From dgrussel
I take all my relationship advice from Paul, I’m constantly rebuilding.

9:52
Paul Swydan: I got nothing.

9:52
Comment From Guest
Better rapper to have ever spent time in a MLB uniform — Lastings Milledge, Trevor Bauer, or MC Hammer?

9:53
Paul Swydan: Let me know when Milledge and Bauer have been all around the world, from London to the Bay.

9:53
Comment From Snid
Joey Gallo, Is he in “My Cousin Vinny”?

9:53
Paul Swydan: Come on, I already made that joke!

9:53
Comment From Dave
Melky Cabrera just set a Jays record for most hits in April. What a turnaround.

9:54
Jeff Zimmerman: Helps have a tumor off your spinal column

9:54
Paul Swydan: And yet, still clueless in the field. He missed one ball this weekend against the Red Sox so badly that I think he was literally sleeping until it was hit.

9:54
Comment From jo
What is up with Verlander? Ok results so far but every outing seems like a struggle, not putting people away. Just April or should I shop him for a #2 type OF?

9:55
Paul Swydan: I mean, you can’t stop the freight train that is Gordon Beckham….

I think it’s just April, and I wouldn’t overreact.

9:56
Jeff Zimmerman: Not yet. Not many chances to get a pitcher with Verlander’s potential.

9:56
Comment From Dodged a bullet
Girlfriend’s shopping for a new bathing suit online. She said “These bathing suits are all for pale, bigger girls.” I took a breath and sipped my beer quietly.

9:56
Jeff Zimmerman: Awesome.

9:56
Paul Swydan: You made the right call there. Better yet, get up and go to the bathroom for like an hour. You can watch the game on your phone.

9:56
Comment From Bill
Is Cueto really this good?

9:56
Jeff Zimmerman: If healthy.

9:56
Paul Swydan: I doubt it. And I know Jeff still hates his delivery, right Jeff

9:57
Comment From Ruki
Verlander seems to be having an increase in walks and his BB% is consistant with last year’s. It might be a good time to shop him around and use his low ERA/FIP to push him. Just don’t bring up his xFIP!

9:58
Paul Swydan: It’s true that his walk rate is up since the start of 2013, and even with that being said I still wouldn’t shop him.

9:59
Comment From dgrussel
I have a second level outfielder I’ll trade for Verlander…Swisher is a second tier outfielder right?

9:59
Paul Swydan: Uh, no.

9:59
Jeff Zimmerman: I would still take Verlander. Not worried yet. SwgStr% projects to a 22%K%

10:00
Comment From Ricer
Perez tumbles back toward earth tonight.

10:00
Paul Swydan: Pretty amazing how good Oakland’s offense has been.

10:01
Comment From John
And theories as to why the shift is being used so much this year?

10:01
Paul Swydan: I think this one is pretty simple – the Pirates made the playoffs.

10:01
Jeff Zimmerman: Because it works.

10:01
Paul Swydan: Also, it works.

10:02
Jeff Zimmerman: Players and coaches are buying into it more.

10:02
Comment From Guest
Thanks for taking my question. Do you know of any resource that gives the 20-80 tools of current big leaguers? I think it would be interesting to get a scout’s perspective.

10:02
Jeff Zimmerman: There is a good website which does/did this, one sec.

10:03
Paul Swydan: I don’t. I think because we generally just use quantifiable stats for that, but it’s certainly an interesting idea.

10:03
Paul Swydan: Well, I guess Jeff does.

10:03
Comment From Concerned Friar
Hey guys. What’s with Everth Cabrera’s lack of early season steals? Is this something you see keeping up? What seems to be the matter with him? I recall some folks having him as a potential SB leader.

10:05
Paul Swydan: I mean, he’s posting a 105 wRC+, and generally showing that he can succeed offensively. Yes, .395 BABIP, but an increase in walk rate should offset that. Moral of the story, I don’t think anything is the matter with him, he’s just getting warmed up.

10:05
Comment From King Maron
http://mlbscoutingreports.com my buddy runs this site!

10:05
Jeff Zimmerman: Http://Mlbscoutingreports.Com

10:05
Paul Swydan: Not sure I equate Pedroia with Allen Craig, but interesting nonetheless.

10:06
Jeff Zimmerman: shit, beat me to it, I was looking through my reader for it.

10:06
Comment From Alex
I cant wait for May, I can finally begin to worry about poor starts

10:07
Paul Swydan: And with that, we’re going to call it a night. Tune back in next week, which will be next month, and we’ll begin to worry about people’s slow starts together!

10:07
Jeff Zimmerman: Sounds good.

10:07
Paul Swydan: Also a quick reminder — the content at The Hardball Times is awesome this week, please check it out!

OK, nite!



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Paul Swydan is the managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for Boston.com. He has written for The Boston Globe, ESPN MLB Insider and ESPN the Magazine, among others. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan.


Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Annoying guy
Guest
Annoying guy

I predict that it will not be dark in most U.S. time zones at 9 pm EDT.

bob
Guest
bob

I am in central… its dark here… so i presume its dark in the east as well… so you are wrong… 50% is not most. its half.

Jay29
Member
Jay29

Don’t count Alaska and Hawaii?

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