FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 5/27/14

7:06
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! My apologies for not setting up the chat earlier. I usually sit down and do it at 5:30, but tonight at 5:30 I was at the park for a picnic for my son’s school. Whoops!

In any case, fill up the queue and I’ll get some polls working and together we can do this. Just make sure you caress the ball the way you would your wife or girlfriend or husband or boyfriend. Baseball!

9:02
Paul Swydan: OK, let’s do this.
9:02
Comment From Matt
What are you doing with Hanley Ramirez? In the lineup but are you selling now?
9:02
Paul Swydan: I’m holding. Unless you find someone really desperate for a shortstop.
9:03
Comment From Jose
Jacob Turner: ERA 5.35, FIP 4.27, xFIP 3.73, BABIP .351. Even better numbers if you remove his one start before going on the DL. Is he turning a corner?
9:04
Paul Swydan: Color me intrigued, but it’s hard to fall in love with a guy who has such a low strikeout rate. May be one of those guys whose peripherals always look better than what he really is.

9:04
Comment From Sonny
Three bad starts in a row for Ervin Santana. Has the league caught up to him?
9:04
Paul Swydan: Not so much that as he just was pitching much better than his talent level before. Even now, his FIP- is 86, and that would be the second-best mark of his career.
9:04
Comment From Mike at the Ted
Is Wily Peralta kinda regressing back to his norm now? How do you see his rest of season shaking out.
9:06
Paul Swydan: I see him doing pretty well. He has been probably more homer-prone than he will be given his batted ball mix, even given his home ballpark. I have him in Ottoneu, and I use him as a matchup guy. But that’s because I need to watch my innings. I think he’s a good sleeper/buy low guy.
9:06
Comment From asdfasdf
What do you think about Francisco Liriano?
9:06
Paul Swydan: I never trust Liriano.
9:06
Comment From Leslie
Delin Betances is amazing. That is all.
9:07
Paul Swydan: He certainly has been. What a roll.
9:07
Comment From Stephen
David Price keeps getting lit up, but the peripherals look great. He’s going to turn this around, yes?
9:08
Paul Swydan: I feel like he will, but it seems odd to keep praising a guy for allowing five runs. He was great in innings 2-whatever against the Sox, but he was all over the place in the first inning. I’m sure he’ll be fine, but this may just not be his year.
9:08
Comment From Lenard
Thoughts on Pomeranz? 12 team mixed league starter, at least streaming?
9:09
Paul Swydan: I love him, though I’m biased because I want to love him. I felt the Rockies wanted him to be perfect right from jump street because they needed him to be awesome in order to validate the Ubaldo trade, and when he wasn’t they buried him. Now he has a fresh start, and is pitching like a guy who was drafted with the fifth overall pick not too long ago. It’s been fun to watch. I am buying, but am being cautious.
9:09
Comment From Lenard
What’s up with Longo? Batted ball distribution is out of whack compared to career norms. Will that normalize or is it (and the power outage) here to stay?
9:09
Paul Swydan: Not worried about him.
9:10
Comment From Tylersnotes
Matt kemp worth holding in a league with weekly lineups and only 3 OF?
9:10
Paul Swydan: Maybe just for another week.
9:10
Comment From Guest
What are your thoughts on a $25 Fielder or a $15 C . Santana going forward in a 12 team mixer dynasty?
9:11
Paul Swydan: With the caveat that I really don’t know your salary cap, I’d still be holding on Santana, but if you can find anyone to take Fielder off your hands, I’d do it.
9:11
Comment From First Time Poster
Think Hamels is still a top 20 arm?
9:12
Paul Swydan: I’m losing faith, that’s for sure.
9:12
Comment From First Time Poster
What are your thoughts on Solart? As a Yankee fan it would be very nice to see a guy come up from the minors (though he is new to their system) and actually maintain MLB success.
9:12
Paul Swydan: I think he can be .275/.340/.410 guy, which is a heck of a lot better than they got at 3B last year.
9:13
Comment From First Time Poster
Prince Fielder’s slash line next year? 260/330/450?
9:14
Paul Swydan: I think we can’t even be sure that he plays. Neck injuries aren’t exactly plentiful, so the defined timetable is probably more a moving target, and we sure as heck don’t know what he’ll be if he does come back. I’m not optimistic, let’s put it that way.
9:14
Comment From Player Development Nerd
When do you think we will see the first woman in MLB to work in the following roles? 1) Umpire 2) Base Coach 3) Hitting/Pitching Coach 4) Manager 5) GM 6) Player
9:14
Paul Swydan: Bradley Woodrum will have an article on women in baseball at THT on Thursday. Be sure to check that out!
9:15
Paul Swydan: For myself, I’ll say that umpire will happen first. Not going to make guesses on dates, because that would be a depressing exercise.
9:15
Comment From Bill
What would the mets have to give up to get Rios? fixes the OF this year and next
9:15
Paul Swydan: Alex Rios? I’m going to respectfully disagree, sorry.
9:15
Comment From Breezy
Why aren’t more people taking about Michael Brantley?
9:16
Paul Swydan: I guess he’s just not that exciting of a guy?

He’s one of those guys that does a lot of things pretty well, but doesn’t do anything extraordinarily well, and those guys tend to be overlooked. But maybe new FG writer and Ohio person August Fagerstrom will write about him soon!

9:17
Comment From Guest
Would be OK with dropping $12 Seager for a $1 Dominguez in 4×4 Ottoneu?
9:17
Paul Swydan: Yeah, assuming the cap penalty doesn’t crush you.
9:17
Comment From Clap near my Stubby
Hey Paul I forget if you chat about fantasy trades or not. Give: Puig and Taijuan Receive: Beltre and Coco Crisp. Innings cap rotiss I lost Arenado and Trumbo and have solid pitching.
9:18
Paul Swydan: Sure, like Ice Cube, I’m down for whatever.

I would not deal Puig for Beltre and Crisp at all, especially if you have to toss in Taijuan. I get that you want a 3B, but that is a steep price, especially since Beltre has started slower than usual.

9:18
Comment From john
Tell me why I still watch the mets. It can’t be good for my health
9:20
Paul Swydan: Because someday they will win it all, and you will call your father (if you’re not watching with him) and break down crying, and you’ll remember all your family members who died before getting to see that moment, maybe like your Uncle Herbie who could barely walk but would stand in the yard and play catch with you until dusk because no one else would.

Or maybe that’s just what I did when the Sox won. But you’ll have similar feelings, and it will absolutely be worth it. You know, once the new commish takes one look at the Wilpons and forces them to sell.

9:21
Comment From Young Joc
When does Joc Pederson get called up? Are we waiting for the LAD OF situation to get cleared up or the Super 2?
9:21
Paul Swydan: The second they trade Carl Crawford or the second Matt Kemp hits the disabled list?
9:21
Comment From Jake
Paul!! I was just offered Myers, A. Gordon, & Porcello for Longoria in a 11 team roto league. I have Miggy. If I can get a better pitcher is that a decent enough haul?
9:22
Paul Swydan: Jake!

Yes, if you can get a better pitcher.

9:22
Comment From Banjo
Is there anything wrong with Alex Gordon or this is the new normal?
9:23
Paul Swydan: Well, the power is down, but overall his wRC+ is up from last year, so it’s hard to call that a major thing, unless you were counting on him for home runs. But given that he’s only hit the 20-HR threshold twice, I doubt that you were doing that anyway.
9:24
Comment From Mike at the Ted

Blue Jay reaction after Encarnacion goes yard tonight.

9:24
Paul Swydan: That’s a great photo.
9:24
Comment From Breezy
Is Yordano droppable in a re-draft league? I really don’t want to deal with his valgus stress overload
9:24
Paul Swydan: No, sorry. You gotta hang on to him and see where this goes. If he magically is fine somehow, and keeps tossing up a 2.00 ERA or whatever, you’re going to pretty pissed at yourself.
9:25
Comment From First Time Poster
Think Alexander Guerrero (A-Gu in baseball speak) will make an impact with the bat once his ear grows back/Dee Gordon reverts back to only being able to steal bases (and our hearts)?
9:25
Paul Swydan: Impact, I think, is a strong word. I’m not expecting him to have an impact bat. Also, I think Dee Gordon can probably hit .270 and score a ton of runs and steal a ton of bases. And my heart, obviously.
9:25
Comment From Paul
I can’t wait for the 2014 edition of your article on the Giants are not equipped to win it all if the Giants are in the playoff:)
9:26
Paul Swydan: Glad I have you on pins and needles. Check back in October.
9:26
Comment From Insert witty name here
Paulllll I’m so impatient. I want to sell on Mark Trumbo/Matt Barnes. What should I be looking to get back for a package like that?
9:27
Paul Swydan: I get that you’re impatient, but I wouldn’t expect a lot for a guy who is on the shelf or a guy with a 4.35 ERA in Triple-A who may or may not have been passed by three-four other guys on the Red Sox’s depth chart this year.
9:27
Comment From john
Would mark Cuban be good for baseball? I’d like him owning the mets
9:29
Paul Swydan: No one could possibly be worse for the Mets than the Wilpons, so, in that sense, yes. In another very real sense, I think MLB just wants peace and quiet from their owners:

http://www.hardballtimes.co…

And Cuban is basically the opposite of that, so I wouldn’t hold your breath.

9:29
Comment From Insert witty name here
Dear Paul, That was not the answer I was looking for. Signed, :(
9:29
Paul Swydan: Sorry, call em like I see em. We keep hearing Webster, Workman, Ranaudo, without mention of Barnes. And Owens has probably jumped Barnes on the depth chart as well. And then there’s Rubby De La Rosa still hanging around. And, seriously, why is Buchholz still pitching? Bah!
9:30
Comment From Hmmmmm
Isiah Rashad or Chance the Rapper, Rest of Career?
9:30
Paul Swydan: This isn’t entirely fair because I haven’t heard Rashad yet. But he’d have to be pretty damn good for me to not say Chance The Rapper, who I love.
9:30
Comment From Pork Sale
Traded Yordano for Arenado last week. Who ends up winning that trade with the events of the last week?
9:31
Paul Swydan: Arenado will be fine, but his potential as a fantasy player is far lower than Ventura’s. Arenado is a better real life player. But if Ventura needs TJ….
9:31
Comment From osund
The Indians dodged bullets with the Ubaldo and Masterson contracts, but probably should’ve kept Kazmir. I guess 2 outta 3 ain’t bad.
9:31
Paul Swydan: Who says they’re not going to re-sign Masterson?
9:31
Comment From john
Thanks for being the first stats guy to take Alderson to task. His decisions have been brutal, and I’ve been getting sick of the adulation
9:32
Paul Swydan: Not sure that I can claim to be the first, but to be honest, I have been skeptical since the day he was hired. It had been a longgggggg time since he was in charge of a baseball ops department, and it has shown.
9:32
Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
Stroman and Aaron Sanchez for The Shark. Who says no?
9:32
Paul Swydan: The Blue Jays.
9:33
Comment From Pete Wheeler
Will there be a FanGraphs meetup in Boston this summer before the Saber Seminar? It was a great time last year.
9:33
Paul Swydan: We haven’t discussed this formally, but it has been in my mind to make it a point of discussion, as I’d like to do that again. And Jeff will be there this time I think as well! Which should be fun.
9:34
Paul Swydan: BTW, if you’re wondering why Jeff isn’t here tonight, it’s because his kids have baseball on Tuesday nights right now, and he’s a good father. We may do this on Monday or Wednesday the next few weeks, but this week Monday wasn’t happening, and I have Sox tickets tomorrow, so we’ll make due without Jeff for one more week.
9:34
Comment From Pork Sale
I just saw an article about the Cardinals trading for Price. It seemed like a non reputable site, but why would they entertain that for the undoubtedly high prospect cost?
9:35
Paul Swydan: Not sure. They already have plenty of starting pitchers, and don’t need an ace with Waino and Wacha around.
9:35
Comment From park chan hos beard
I keep getting angry fangraphs is so low on the Rockies, but then i watch them get shut out by Kyle Kendrick and im like “oh yeah”
9:36
Paul Swydan: It’s not that we’re low on them, it’s just that anyone can have a good couple of months. Reality is this:

– CarGo is banged up and will be all year.
– Blackmon is already back to being Charlie Blackmon and not Willie Mays
– Tulo will probably get hurt at some point, and also probably won’t hit .380 all year

Now, if Eddie Butler and Jon Gray come up and are immediately awesome, that’ll solve a lot of problems, but the odds on that are rather long.

9:37
Comment From Insert witty name here
Speaking of the Cards, do you think they would ship Allen Craig to the Sox? I like him as Napoli insurance and regular LFer but I don’t have any idea if the Cards would sell on him so low. Also, Papi is still amazing
9:37
Paul Swydan: Not sure why the Cards would want to do that, and I am definitely certain I don’t want to watch him try to play left field.
9:37
Comment From Joe
Ethier or Crawford get moved instead of Matt Kemp right?
9:38
Paul Swydan: No one is trading for Matt Kemp, and as Mike Petriello noted the other day, Ethier may just be their best center fielder.
9:38
9:38
Paul Swydan: I think, I would try to trade Crawford, and then run with this alignment:

LF – Kemp
CF – Pederson/Ethier
RF – Puig
Fifth OF – Van Slyke

9:39
Paul Swydan: With Pederson spelling Kemp as needed.
9:39
Comment From osund
Paul Dolan’s checkbook says the Indians aren’t going to resign Masterson
9:39
Paul Swydan: Paul Dolan is a very rich man, and could absolutely re-sign Masterson if he wanted to.
9:39
Comment From Insert witty name here
People keep mentioning how the Cardinals HAVE to move either Allen or Adams to make room for Taveras. And I think he’d be okay playing the Monster, no worse than Mike Carp at least.
9:40
Paul Swydan: I’m not enamored with Adams. 2.5% BB%. His fall is coming, I think.

And if that’s your standard for LF defense, Ooof. I don’t want Carp out there either, FWIW.

9:40
Comment From Guest
IF you could add one of Polanco, Springer or Taveras in the next two weeks who would you choose?
9:41
Paul Swydan: Well, Springer since he’s already up and hitting well. We really don’t know for sure when the other two will come up or when they will hit well.
9:41
Comment From JDagg
do teams basically have to plan on having 7-9 MLB ready SP arms moving forward?
9:41
Paul Swydan: Yes, I believe both Eno and Jeff Sullivan rammed that point home this offseason.
9:41
Comment From Rated Rookie
Aaron Boone just said on the Red Sox-Braves broadcast “We’ve seen a handful of balls…”
9:41
Paul Swydan: He’s not wrong!
9:41
Comment From matt adams
matt adams ros??
9:42
Paul Swydan: Shouldn’t you have just said, “me, ROS?”

Trending down.

9:42
Comment From Out in the Desert
How do the D’backs turn it around? And how soon?
9:42
Paul Swydan: It’s going to be a long time, because they basically did the opposite of what they should be doing. Tony La Russa is an old man, and wasn’t hired to oversee a five-year rebuild, which is basically what they need after Towers and Gibson torched their farm system.
9:43
Comment From Erin
Who should the Sox target to help out in the OF? Or should they be selling instead?
9:43
Paul Swydan: Not sure the Sox need to do either thing right now.
9:43
Comment From Word
Is Cargo done being a premier player?
9:43
Paul Swydan: No, but his knee probably isn’t going to be right all season, and unfortunately he’s one of those guys who needs to be as close to 100% as possible.
9:43
Comment From Word
Is Carlos Gomes the new “cargo”
9:44
Paul Swydan: A, it’s Gomez with a “Z,” and B, No! Why do we just accept the same stupid nicknames for everybody? Use your imagination!
9:44
Comment From SK
What’s up with Dom Brown?
9:44
Paul Swydan: He’s not that good.
9:44
Comment From Insert witty name here
You really don’t think the Sox need OF help?
9:45
Paul Swydan: I think that as painful as it has been to watch, the team needs to give Sizemore and Bradley another couple of months. I can get behind the idea of cutting bait on Sizemore, but until Nava gets back to the business of being awesome, it’s basically a moot point. What the team really needs is for Victorino to be healthy.
9:45
Comment From Name
What’s for dinner?
9:46
Paul Swydan: Well, I had SubWay for dinner, but I’m getting hungry again.
9:46
Comment From SK
Giancarlo over/under 120 RBI
9:46
Paul Swydan: I’ll say under. Also, I don’t particularly care, except for fantasy purposes, where he’s one of my linchpins.
9:46
Comment From Bay
Does MadBumm contend for a Cy Young if he keeps it up?
9:46
Paul Swydan: Yes, Madison absolutely will.
9:46
Comment From park chan hos beard
thoughts on the manny hiring?
9:48
Paul Swydan: I think there’s very little downside from the Cubs’ perspective. If he’s “Manny Being Manny,” they cut him quick. The players will have a fun story to tell, and management can say, “Hey, we tried to give him a chance at redemption.” If he DOES behave, then they just got one of the best hitters of all-time for nothing. Which is nice.
9:48
Comment From joe
How do feel about weekly H2H? My league just switched to it from roto. We have daily transactions but I just feel like there is too much luck incvolved with only a 7 day matchup.
9:48
Paul Swydan: Head to head is for football, or better yet, for no fantasy games. There is very little talent involved in knowing who will pitch twice in a week. It’s all tedious busywork. No thanks.
9:48
Comment From Insert witty name here
Fair enough. I’m of the opinion that they’re running out of time to wait on all of that to happen is all.
9:49
Paul Swydan: I think the reality is that the Red Sox are just not very good this year, and that they’re better off just really seeing what they have with Bradley especially so they don’t go into the offseason feeling uncertain about him.
9:49
Comment From Long time Mets Fan
Any hope for us in near future?
9:50
Paul Swydan: Well, like I said, hopefully the next commissioner won’t be best buddies with the Wilpons, and he/she will put pressure on them to either stop F’ing around or sell the team. So, let’s wait and see who the next commish is. Not much hope until then, unfortunately.
9:50
Comment From Bob
Would you trade Huston Street for Alvarez? I already have Todd Frazier. If I do it I would explore trading Frazier. SO i guess my question boils down to is Alvarez better ROS than Frazier
9:50
Paul Swydan: Not better enough to warrant trading a closer for him, no.
9:51
Comment From Insert witty name here
Nobody wants Carp out there. They have Jonny Gomes in right tonight though. The OF is a mess and nobody from AAA is likely to solve it. Ugh, I’m getting depressed typing this
9:51
Paul Swydan: Right, and nobody is just going to punt a good outfielder to them in May. So, we get another month or two of Bradley and Sizemore while the team figures out if they’re buying, holding or selling.
9:51
Comment From Matt
Paul are you a Red Sox fan?
9:52
Paul Swydan: Yeah. Sorry if that wasn’t clear earlier!
9:52
Comment From Matty
Appreciate the chats Paul. Feel like you generally try to give your best each Tuesday. Pick one for rest of career… Will Meyers or Jason Heyward. Thanks!
9:52
Paul Swydan: Appreciate it. I would bank on Heyward over Myers, but I like both of them.
9:53
Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
Will the Mets be buyers or sellers?
9:53
Paul Swydan: They’ll probably do nothing because doing things might mean breaking a sweat. It’s too hot today.
9:54
Comment From First Time Poster
What do you think the Yanks’ should do about their rotation? They almost certainly need an arm, no? A package centered around JR Murphy would make a lot of sense, no?
9:54
Paul Swydan: They probably need an arm eventually, but I’m not sure they’ll be in a rush to go get one. We’ll see. Their farm system isn’t the greatest.
9:55
Comment From Schaf
Assuming both pitchers are healthy which one would you pick, Paxton or Smyly?
9:55
Paul Swydan: Smyly
9:55
Comment From Jake
Ozuna or Colby Rasmus ROS?
9:55
Paul Swydan: Hmmm, probably Ozuna.
9:55
Comment From Lars
Where was your first online fantasy league? Mine was AOL’s Grandstand Fantasy Baseball. My first season was 1997, and I was lucky enough to have drafted Pedro Martinez.
9:56
Paul Swydan: Oh, I think I have you beat. My first was in high school, I used to do the mail-in leagues that were in the Baseball Weekly issues, and you had to pay like $1 per transaction. Like, a real dollar, not a FAAB dollar or whatever.
9:57
Paul Swydan: And high school for me was 1993-1997, which I just realized you all have no way of knowing.
9:57
Comment From Lars
You must have a billion entries in the queue!
9:57
Paul Swydan: A billion is a lot, but this year there has been more than I/we could answer each week, and that is new. You guys are the best.
9:57
Comment From Guest
Who is taking over for Collette?
9:58
Paul Swydan: Eno says that the fantastic and effervescent Nicholas Minnix is taking over the RG podcast.
9:58
Comment From Bartolo Fink
Serious question: has anyone ever actually SEEN Billy Butler and Sgt. Schultz from Hogan’s Heroes in the same room?
9:59
Paul Swydan: Not sure, but now hopefully someone will see this and try to make it happen.
9:59
Comment From SK
Samardzija to the Red Sox?
9:59
Paul Swydan: I want to see some of the arms come up from Triple-A before any decision on paying the freight for Samardzija or any other high-value pitcher is made.
10:00
Comment From James
agree or disagree AL player of the Month Victor Martinez and NL player of the month Yasiel Puig
10:00
Paul Swydan: Without scanning the leaderboards, it’d be hard to disagree with this.
10:00
Comment From john
The league I’m in is something like 23 years old. I’ve only been here for 5
10:01
Paul Swydan: I’m in a similar league right now. It’s my third year in it but it has been going forever, and I still feel like the outsider.
10:01
Comment From SK
True or false: Josh Donaldson is the best 3B in the bigs
10:01
Paul Swydan: If you put a gun to my head, I’d still probably take Beltre, Longoria and Wright over him, but he is the best at the moment, and that’s OK too.
10:01
Comment From Zach
AJ Pollock is a 20/20 guy. True or false? I say true. Dat batted ball distance is up big time.
10:02
Paul Swydan: The question is whether or not he gets enough playing time to pull that off. I don’t think he will, because Trumbo will be back at some point, and they’re not going to platoon Trumbo, which leaves Pollock/Ross/Parra fighting over two OF spots. And then Prado will get a random start here or there as well. Campana too, probably.
10:02
Comment From JDagg
Hypothetical … if you were Dombrowski and faced with an off-season signing VMart for 4/48 or BBulter for 3/27 as your DH for next season, who would you choose?
10:03
Paul Swydan: VMart, though if I was Dombrowksi I’d be more likely to offer him 2/$30M than 4/$48M.
10:03
Comment From Rated Rookie
Any other pitchers of recent memory who have also suffered and rehabilitated a lateral elbow strain?
10:04
Paul Swydan: I can’t remember one, but A) I have a poor memory and B) Ventura could be the first. You never know.
10:04
Comment From SK
I traded Tulo & Wainwright for Kershaw & Reyes pre-season…FML
10:04
Paul Swydan: You have my condolences.
10:04
Comment From Mike C
Neil Walker, is he 4 real or due for regression? top 5 2b in NL right now. really?
10:05
Paul Swydan: He’s consistently a bottom of the top 10 guy. If this is the year that he ends up being a top five guy, because Zobrist is hurt, Kipnis is hurt, Pedroia has no power stroke, etc., I wouldn’t be shocked.
10:06
Paul Swydan: While Walker may or may not be a top five guy though, you are all definitely top five guys (and gals) in my book. Thanks as always for hanging out with me. We’ll be back next week. Maybe on Monday. Keep your ear to the ground!


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Paul Swydan is the managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for Boston.com. He has written for The Boston Globe, ESPN MLB Insider and ESPN the Magazine, among others. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan.


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