FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 6/11/13

6:04	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Chris, Jeff AND myself will be live with you tonight at 9 pm ET to cram some baseball down your cramholes. In the meantime, I’ll get up some polls, and you post some questions and comments. It’s just crazy enough to work. See you soon!

9:01	Paul Swydan: Six shutout innings from Gerrit Cole > seven walks from Jon Lester. Let’s light this turkey.

9:01	Chris Cwik: Hi, everyone. Been a while.

9:01	Paul Swydan: Chris is married now you guys. Tell Chris congratulations!

9:01	Jeff Zimmerman: I am working on a poll, will jump in soon.

9:02	Paul Swydan: Btw, 56% of you are pissing me off. Man of Steel looks AMAZING.

9:02	Comment From Logan Davis Let’s all insult the Mariners for calling up Zunino! Boy they are really desperate

9:02	Chris Cwik: I made the mistake of picking up Zunino in a fantasy league before seeing his stats. Kind of agree with Dave Cameron, who tweeted that people are trying to save their jobs with his promotion.

9:03	Paul Swydan: Oh man, if only you guys could have heard Cameron and Sullivan complain about this on our conference call. It was like this, except in my ear balls: http://www.ussmariner.com/2013/06/11/mariners-call-up-mike-zunino/

9:04	Comment From The Hammer from Cedar Lkae Is Matt Kemp still and elite player or is he done?

9:04	Paul Swydan: I think this is poll worthy.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: I would like to see one more season from him, but it is not looking good.

9:05	Chris Cwik: Well, I’m more optimistic than Jeff

9:06	Paul Swydan: On the one hand, he has two seasons with 5.0 WAR or higher. On the other hand, he has three full seasons of ball with a 3.2 WAR or lower. And that’s not counting this year.

9:06	Comment From Guest Can this be the only comment that you post tonight about this Puig guy? I am sick of hearing only about him already

9:06	Paul Swydan: No, probably not. Sorry. I like me some Major Puig Baseball.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: Who?

9:07

Comment From Metsamorphosis
Please some fantasy advise. I have collection of underachievers this year (heyward, zobrist, hosmer, vmart) and am rock bottom in power categories. Also have mcutch and posey. Do i ride this out and hope for some of these guys to come around or bust it up in a fire sale? Who do i hold on to?

9:07	Chris Cwik: It’s funny to look at what he’s doing now and read his initial scouting reports. Something has to give. Either he’s going to continue to be way better than others expected, or he’s going to revert.

9:08	Paul Swydan: Metsa – I would be happy to cut bait on Heyward, Hosmer and Vmart. Not sure how much you get, but I’m comfortable thinking they’re not going to be great this year.

9:08	Chris Cwik: I would look to deal Hosmer or VMart, but you won’t get anything great. I would still hold most of those guys because you won’t get good enough value if you try and deal them.

9:08	Paul Swydan: Cole loses his shutout w one out in the seventh.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: You could smartly bust it up. Zobrist will be wanted for flexibility.

9:09	Comment From LudeBurger married people don’t get opinions, Chris. Congratulations

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: I concur.

9:09	Paul Swydan: Haha, true fact!

9:09	Chris Cwik: As if I had them before

9:09	Comment From Crusty Did she take your last name, Chris? If so she’ll spend the rest of her life explaining how to say it. Good luck to her, too.

9:09	Comment From AJT Is Chris whipped yet?

9:10	Chris Cwik: She did. Her last name was something very common, so she was ok with the change. Knew what she was getting into.

9:10	Chris Cwik: I don’t have to be married to be whipped.

9:10	Comment From Jaack For Chris: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u2m6sHROA3U

9:10	Chris Cwik: Necessary

9:11	Paul Swydan: That’s my favorite reply anytime my wife shakes her head at me: “You knew what you were getting yourself into!”

9:11	Comment From Archer Cut bait on Heyward? I know SSS and all, but the guy has really turned it around lately. His SB numbers don’t look like they’ll be where they were projected to be, though.

9:11	Chris Cwik: I wouldn’t cut bait with Heyward.

9:12	Paul Swydan: But for me he has never been an elite fantasy guy. Better guy in real life than in fantasy. The slow start kind of cinches it for me. Especially in that guy’s case, since he’s already in last in power.

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: Not here either.

9:12	Comment From ricer Trout + Hamilton + Pujols traded for some mid level prospect. Which side says no?

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: Angels

9:13	Paul Swydan: I would think the Angels say no. Even if they got rid of Hamilton and Pujols, still too tough to give up Trout.

9:13	Chris Cwik: Well, the Angels would never do that…but if they did, I don’t think they would have a tough time dealing Trout. The other two, I’m not so sure.

9:13	Comment From BipRoberts How would you guys rank the following starters ROS – Bailey, Fister, Cain, Iwakuma, Holland?

9:14	Paul Swydan: Fister, Iwakuma, Cain, Bailey, Holland

9:14	Chris Cwik: Cain, Fister, Bailey, Holland Iwakuma

9:14	Chris Cwik: DISAGREEMENTS

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: Bailey, Cain, Fister Holland, Iwakuma

9:14	Paul Swydan: Whoa, Jeff is not on the Iwakuma train.

9:15	Comment From Pantsless Joe MacNamara Do you think Bartolo Colon literally eats innings?

9:15	Chris Cwik: I bet he could

9:15	Paul Swydan: Everything about this makes me smile.

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: and buffets

9:15	Comment From Matt Carpenter Paul, weren’t you the guy who thought I couldn’t stick at 2nd base? In case you haven’t noticed I am 4th in all of baseball in WAR.

9:16	Chris Cwik: His fielding numbers are really great. I haven’t seen much of him defensively, but I’m really surprised if he’s this good.

9:16	Chris Cwik: Great call by the Cards thus far.

9:16

Paul Swydan: I am.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove12/story/_/id/8820297/st-louis-cardinals-upgrade-rafael-furcal-daniel-descalso-middle-infield-mlb

But my argument was never about his bat – his bat is great. It was more about him being able to stick there for a full season. Which, to be fair, he has not yet done.

9:17	Paul Swydan: There just are not a lot of players hit height who have been able to play second base full time. If he makes it the whole season, it’s obviously a HUGE win for St. Louis.

9:17	Paul Swydan: his height

9:18	Comment From Kate Upton: Fantasy MVP ETA for Jansen replacing League as the Dodger’s closer? League’s ERA is like 6 now.

9:19	Chris Cwik: Boy, you would have to think it would happen soon.

9:19	Paul Swydan: He never should have been the closer to begin with, so I’m not all that confident they’ll replace him now either.

9:20	Comment From Puig Is Puig the Dodgers’ best OFer (rest of season)

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: Who knows for sure, it should be soon, check out the shutdown/meltdown ratios: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=22&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

9:20	Chris Cwik: I say Kemp pulls it together

9:20	Chris Cwik: And Crawford has been pretty good too

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, but it is pretty low hanging fruit right now.

9:21	Paul Swydan: Kemp should still be better, but Puig certainly is right there with him and Crawford.

9:21	Comment From HamJenkinsIII Cocoa Puffs or Raisin Bran RoS?

9:21	Paul Swydan: Cocoa Puffs FTW.

9:21	Chris Cwik: Cocoa Puffs

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: Cocoa Puffs ………………………………………………………Raisin Bran.

9:22	Comment From LudeBurger wow all 3 of the idiots are here! its a village

9:22	Chris Cwik: Yuuuuuuup

9:22	Comment From LudeBurger Jansen was named closer today in fact…http://www.truebluela.com/2013/6/11/4420954/kenley-jansen-dodgers-closer-brandon-league-don-mattingly

9:22	Paul Swydan: Well, you know, they say it takes a village. I don’t know what the IT is, but either way we’re doing some good, right?

9:22	Paul Swydan: Oh, well how about that, I sit corrected!

9:23	Chris Cwik: I didn’t see that either.

9:23	Comment From RWG Does Putz get the job back? looks like he gonna be ready for a Rehab Assignment and be back soon (assuming no setbacks of course)

9:23	Chris Cwik: I think he gets the job back, yes. As long as he’s healthy, he’s the guy.

9:23	Paul Swydan: This will be an interesting one. I can’t call it. Bell obviously has that veteran closer juice, so it’s not a slam dunk call.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, that is how it works sadly.

9:24	Comment From zack What is your opinion of Neil Huntington as a GM? Seems like he has built a good farm system and also made some moves to upgrade the big league team without sacrificing the longterm (Burnett trade, Russel Martin signing, LIriano)

9:24	Paul Swydan: I would agree with this statement. I think that his fatal flaw is not being aggressive enough with low-cost, high-upside deals in free agency. Stuff like Fernando Rodney and Kelly Johnson and Bartolo Colon. But he has done a good job overall, I think.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: Good moves, the boot camp thing was a little weird, but I would take him over Dayton Moore in a heart beat.

9:25	Chris Cwik: Yeah. It’s still tough to say. He preached the five year plan or whatever, and it took a long time. But it does look like things are getting better. I’ll say leaning slightly better than usual, but let’s see what happens when he’s a contender.

9:25	Chris Cwik: Oh yeah, the boot camp thing was awful

9:26	Paul Swydan: And for all of his warts, Clint Hurdle isn’t the worst manager in the world either.

9:26	Comment From Bob 10 TEAM 6X6 LEAGUE,Carl Crawford just put on waivers.Use my number 1 waiver priority to pick him up? Currently 8th in steals.

9:27	Chris Cwik: I would give him a shot, yes.

9:27	Paul Swydan: If he’s really going to be back in the 15 days, then absolutely.

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: Never keep a waiver priority, get him.

9:28	Comment From Eric Blair Should Toronto just blow the team up and start over.

9:28	Paul Swydan: I say no. They don’t have a ton of bad contracts and can still keep this core together for another shot next year.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: I would give it another year at least. They need to find a way to stay healthy.

9:29	Chris Cwik: Not yet. Most of their guys are still under contract for a few seasons, and Lawrie and Reyes have been hurt.

9:29	Comment From Derek Morris hello..bharper..miss thee

9:30	Paul Swydan: So sad. Chris is going to be watching a lot of 1-run and 2-run games by the vaunted Nats offense this summer.

9:30	Chris Cwik: Rendon has looked good the past two games. At least that’s exciting.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: But… but… Jayson Werth

9:30	Paul Swydan: Yeah that’s true. And he has a nice little baby afro going too, which was a surprise.

9:31	Comment From Jaack Nothing involving Superman can be amazing. It will always be Superman being uber heroic until kryptonite shows up and then a deus ex machina and superman goes back to being uber heroic.

9:31	Paul Swydan: That’s not at all how this movie looks to be. But Jaack is ALWAYS right about movies, you guys.

9:32	Chris Cwik: I think that notion is cancelled out by “everything with Chris Nolan can be amazing.”

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: I agree with Jaack on this one.

9:32	Paul Swydan: That IS how Superman Returns was though, which I re-watched this weekend to get ready for Man of Steel.

9:32	Chris Cwik: Nolan helped with script.

9:32	Paul Swydan: Yup. And is producer, is he not?

9:32	Comment From RoboUmp Yadi or Posey?

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: Real life, Yadi, Posey for fantasy.

9:33	Paul Swydan: Posey is four years younger. Posey.

9:33	Chris Cwik: What Jeff said

9:33	Comment From Jaack Nolan holds the same title for Man of Steel as Steven Spielberg held for Transformers.

9:34	Chris Cwik: Hey, quit it with the facts, Jaack

9:34	Paul Swydan: That’s not at all a valid comparison, because Spielberg gets that credit for anything that comes out under his Dreamworks shingle. And he also does tons of movies. Nolan is FAR more selective, and doesn’t run a huge production company either.

9:35	Chris Cwik: What Paul said

9:35	Comment From jv what is the breakdown % of hitting/defense/baserunning for total WAR? Like 70% of WAR is hitting, 25% defense, 5% baserunning?

9:35	Paul Swydan: I think Jeff can answer this best.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: 50 hitting and baserunning, so probably 47% hitting, 3% base running. The other half is about 35% pitching, 15% defense. someone can then run the numbers for getting the position player traits up to 100%.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: Total WAR = 50% hitting and baserunning

9:38	Comment From zack Will the really do the whole Choo in center field all year? His defense has looked awful.

9:38	Chris Cwik: I think it lasts the whole year. They’ll just ride it out.

9:38	Paul Swydan: I don’t watch a ton of Reds baseball, because Dusty’s decision-making angries up my blood, but his UZR is obviously pretty awful. But yeah, I think he’s doing it all year.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: Looks like JV is pretty close 72% hitting, 5% base running and 23% defense.

9:40	Paul Swydan: Cool. Thanks Jeff. One more Choo note – he has the 4th-worst UZR/150 in baseball. Only Kemp, Duda and Callaspo worse.

9:40	Comment From Archer Is the strikeout rate going to come around for Cashner? Tonight seems like a decent chance for him to raise it a bit against the Braves.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Is the team more productive with him in CF than without. Just keep him there. MigCab is horrible at 3B but he is staying there.

9:41	Paul Swydan: I think we’re seeing what we’re going to get from Cashner. Which is certainly more valuable than a one-inning reliever. But I think the dreams of Cashner being an elite starter are just that – dreams.

9:41	Chris Cwik: I wrote about him a few weeks ago. His fast slider is gone. Either he can’t throw it hard as a starter, or he’s throwing something new. I’m not super optimistic the K rate is going up much.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: His K rate will go down , just more than people expected, it happens.

9:42	Comment From Guest Got offered mccucthen for Puig. I hate the Pirates. What should i do?

9:42	Paul Swydan: ACCEPT THE TRADE.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Take it now.

9:42	Chris Cwik: You swallow your hatred. That’s what fantasy is all about.

9:42	Comment From shelby miller Is rookie of the year mine to lose?

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: to Puig

9:43	Paul Swydan: No. Between Gattis, Puig and Gyorko, and you and Harvey (does Harvey qualify?) it’s still anyone’s race. Might even have to throw Cole in there if he keeps this up.

9:43	Chris Cwik: Miller all the way

9:43	Comment From zack If the rockies are in a tight playoff race come august/september, given the state of their pitching staff is their any chance Jonathan Gray makes an appearance in the big leagues?

9:44	Paul Swydan: I don’t think so, no. The Rockies have never been that aggressive with a recently drafted player. Not even Casey Weathers, who was expected to be ready right away.

9:44	Chris Cwik: I would trust Paul here

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: I could see him in the pen. I was not overly impressed with him in person. He could use some wrinkles ironed out in the minors.

9:45	Comment From Steve H2H 10 team keeper. I have Harper, Stanton, Bautista,Gomez, Nava. Should I be worried at all?

9:45	Paul Swydan: Not in terms of your outfield. Jeez.

9:45	Chris Cwik: You’re ok. I like Gomez, actually. Stanton and Bautista should be fine. Just need Harper to get healthy.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: Better than any OF I have on a fantasy team.

9:46	Comment From Crusty Joyce homered off Lester. Does that mean his platoon splits are over?! Let us all hope so.

9:46	Paul Swydan: I think it just means that Lester is being whomped by the regression stick at the moment.

9:46	Chris Cwik: Pleasant surprise

9:47	Comment From stonepie is mccann that much of an upgrade from lucroy fantasy wise?

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: I need him to turn it around in my big money league or Dickey.

9:48	Paul Swydan: I think McCann is, yes. He has a 130 wRC+, and Lucroy is at 103. Lucroy is just a guy to me.

9:48	Chris Cwik: I would say he’s a mild improvement.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, by a mile.

9:49	Comment From RoboUmp The best team in baseball has the best prospect in baseball waiting in the minors. Ridiculous.

9:49	Paul Swydan: Who are we talking about? Red Sox and Bogaerts?

9:49	Paul Swydan: Cardinals and Taveras?

9:49	Chris Cwik: Hahaha…um…the Rangers? They already called up Profar.

9:49	Chris Cwik: Cards and Taveras could work

9:51	Paul Swydan: Either way, yes, both are great examples of the rich getting richer. I can’t wait for Bogaerts. I’ve had him stashed on one fantasy team all season, burning up a roster spot I should be using for a bench guy. I’m that excited about him.

9:51	Comment From zack Rank the following pitcher ROS: Kershaw, Wainright, Lee, Harvey, Latos?

9:51	Paul Swydan: Exactly the order you have them. Maybe flip flop Lee and Waino.

9:52	Chris Cwik: In the order you provided.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: Kershaw, Lee, Wainwright, Harvey, Latos

9:52	Comment From Shark Mapiro If your name was on the Biogenesis list, what would you want your code name to be?

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: Paul Swydan

9:52	Paul Swydan: Chief Wiggum.

9:53	Paul Swydan: Or maybe Apu’s fake ID name.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: A.J. Pierlkfdajsaofjlajfsky

9:54	Paul Swydan: What do you say we take a relaxed attitude towards work and watch the baseball game? The nye [New York] Mets are my favorite squadron.

9:54	Comment From Crusty Biogenesis code name… best chat Q of the night. Not even close.

9:54	Paul Swydan: It really was. Where were you with that half hour ago? GOSH!

9:54	Comment From Sami Was just offered Madison Bumgarner for G Cole and Medlen. 8 team nl-only league. Guy offering is a huge pirates fan, you accept right?

9:54	Paul Swydan: Absolutely!

9:54	Chris Cwik: Go for it

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: YES

9:55	Comment From Sami Was offered M Bumgarner for G Cole and Medlen in an 8 team nl-only league. Guy offering is a huge pirates fan, do you accept?

9:55	Paul Swydan: Oh, well that changes things.

9:55	Paul Swydan: I’m still leaning towards doing it though, even with Medlen having improved recently.

9:56	Paul Swydan: Wait. It said Medlen both times. I’m an idiot.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: and wrong about the question being different.

9:56	Paul Swydan: Yup.

9:56	Chris Cwik: I like Bum. I don’t know what Paul is doing.

9:56	Comment From zack If the league wide strikeout % keeps rising will MLB consider doing something like lowering the mound?

9:56	Chris Cwik: MLB hates change, so this would take years. Decades, even.

9:57	Paul Swydan: The mound has been lowered a number of times over the years. It’s really not that steep of a slope now. I don’t think you could really do this again.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: No, it is not dominating yet, sadly, if a town could handle it, it may be time to expand.

9:57	Comment From RoboUmp Arguing with a buddy, better rest of season, Matt Holliday or Dominic Brown?

9:58	Chris Cwik: Holliday

9:58	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Holliday.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: Holliday, but I feel good for Brown finally getting a chance.

9:58	Paul Swydan: Yeah, agreed to that Jeff.

9:58	Comment From Chris H (San Diego) Why are we seeing recently drafted SP make their debuts so early? Gausman, Wacha, Cole come to mind and they’ve had varying levels of success.

9:59	Chris Cwik: Partially guys being more polished. Partially teams realizing they should promote guys who are ready ASAP

9:59	Paul Swydan: I think MLB teams are realizing what guys like Gary Huckabay and Rany Jazayerli and Will Carroll have known for a long time, and that’s pitchers only have so many bullets, and if they’re close to being ready you let them fire those bullets in the majors.

9:59	Chris Cwik: That’s a big part

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: pitcher break down, might as well use them while they are healthy. There is no aging curve for pitchers, just a downward slope.

9:59	Paul Swydan: Exactly.

10:00

Paul Swydan: And unfortunately, there is also nothing but a downward slope for this chat. So we’re going to end on the highest note possible!

Thanks for hanging out with us tonight. Same time next week?

10:00

Chris Cwik: Bye everybody

BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC*	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM*	PIT	SDP*
PHI	STL	SFG

FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 6/11/13