FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 7/8/14

6:43
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

I’m sure you didn’t miss us last week, but we missed you. Join us at 9 pm ET, when hopefully word of a Jake Peavy trade will have leaked and I’ll finally have some good Red Sox news to digest!

Until then, fill up the queue. See you soon!

8:58
Comment From hittfamily
Germany just scored again. 9-1.
9:01
Jeff Zimmerman: Breaking newz: Royals sign J. Buck and A. Soriano
9:02
Paul Swydan: More Breaking news: Steve Lyons has no idea what he’s talking about.
9:02
Comment From AFK
Really hard up for power. Should I stash Alfonso Soriano and hope for the best…or add a player like Cory Hart or Mike Moustakas (UTIL spot)? Thanks.
9:02
Paul Swydan: If those are your options, I’d just stash Soriano.

9:03
Jeff Zimmerman: I like the Hart play right now. Moose will get platooned.
9:03
Comment From Guest
If you were an old school ballplayer, what would you want your nickname to be? E.g. Paul “Jackrabbit” Swydan
9:03
Paul Swydan: Oh man, that’s a great question. Steamroller? Definitely not Jackrabbit.
9:03
Jeff Zimmerman: more like Jacka$$
9:04
Comment From Frank
Pick two of these four SS for rest of season production (most overall production in 5 cat roto)- Brad Miller, JJ Hardy, Jed Lowrie, A simmons. Thanks.
9:04
Paul Swydan: miller and kowrie
9:04
Jeff Zimmerman: Lowrie and………. Miller.
9:05
Paul Swydan: agreements!!!!
9:05
Comment From Hollywood Hogan
What do you think about Xander B as a replacement for E5? Is he going to pick it up?
9:05
Paul Swydan: He’ll pick it up as soon as Farrell wises up and moves him back to shortstop. Don’t hold your breath on that happening this month.
9:06
Jeff Zimmerman: He will be fine, but he will not be close in production, but not many choses since 3B is a waste land this season
9:06
Comment From Frank
Is Jose Quintana a top 50 SP? Do you have him ahead of Marcus Stroman going forward?
9:06
Paul Swydan: Maybem and no.
9:07
Paul Swydan: Maybe, not maybem. Stupid fat fingers.
9:07
Jeff Zimmerman: No (probably), I like Stroman better.
9:07
Comment From Matt
OBP dynasty Abreu/Springer for Posey/Polanco who wins?
9:08
Paul Swydan: I don’t see Abreu as being a big on-base guy. More of a slugging guy. So I’ll take the Posey side without double checking the stats. But that is a damn sexy challenge trade. I like everything about it.
9:08
Jeff Zimmerman: Abreau > Posey. The real rookies are a crap shoot so even.
9:08
Comment From Adam
If you needed power would you deal Pablo Sandoval and A Lind for Pedro Alvarez? Sick of all these noodle bats man…offense is weak this year.
9:08
Paul Swydan: If you can take the hit in batting average, sure.
9:09
Jeff Zimmerman: I am with Paul (sadly).
9:09
Comment From Adam
Last 30 days, Mikey Moustakas is hitting .280 with 6 Hr. What’s going on? Is he worth a flier add? Thanks man.
9:09
Paul Swydan: I’ll let Jeff take this one.
9:10
Jeff Zimmerman: He is better since he is basically in a platoon. Crazy how that works.
9:10
Comment From $
why is first strike percentage kept up with but not getting to a 1-2 count after 3 pitchers percentage kept up with. if you get the first strike but then go 2-1 that isnt as good as throwing a first pitch ball and then getting to 1-2
9:12
Jeff Zimmerman: Some where on the interwebs is an article that states the results of the 1-1 pitch is more important than the 0-0 pitch.
9:12
Paul Swydan: I guess I’m not sure what you mean by “kept up with,” but I think the reason why we focus on first-pitch strikes more than 1-2 counts or 2-strike counts or what have you is because strikeout rate ends up being a pretty decent proxy for how a pitcher does with 2 strikes.
9:12
Comment From Tony G.
I have to ask the weekly Mookie question. What are the Red Sox doing with him and is he destined to be sent back down any time soon?
9:13
Paul Swydan: I think that if things don’t turn around in a week or so, Gomes is on his way out of town and that we’ll see Bradley and Mookie in the lineup on a more regular basis, together.
9:13
Jeff Zimmerman: I think he heads down once Victornio is back. A lot of missed time for everyone.
9:14
Paul Swydan: But the general theme right now is that if you’re winning, it’s OK to play veterans. If you’re not, you need to change up, and John Farrell has been INCREDIBLY, INCREDIBLY, INCREDIBLY slow to change up. There is no point in losing 3-0 every night with a team full of veterans. Play the kids.
9:14
Comment From Ethan
Do you think the Red Sox trade Lester and/or Koji at the deadline? What kind of return could they get?
9:14
Paul Swydan: No, I think the Sox may sell off some guys – Peavy and Gomes first and foremost – but I don’t think those two guys are going anywhere.
9:14
Jeff Zimmerman: They will be traded or resigned IMO.
9:15
Jeff Zimmerman: Link to article on 0-0 vs 1-1 count: http://grantland.com/the-tr…
9:15
Comment From Mookie
if you turn the M upside down I’m Wookie!
9:15
Paul Swydan: I like it.
9:15
Comment From Johnny
How much does someone like James Shield lose in free agency if he gets a QO? how about Cruz or Colby Rasmus if TO is so bold
9:16
Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure on Shields, but not a ton of FA pitching. I think he will be out of KC.
9:16
Paul Swydan: I don’t think Shields will lose any money in free agency if he gets a QO. Someone is going to give him whatever he wants.

Rasmus – there’s no way he gets anything of substance if the Jays make him a QO.

Cruz – Hard to say. His big year may turn some heads.

9:17
Comment From Thomas Müller
Sell Nel Cruz and Latos for Stanton in an OBP/SLUG 14team Dynasty league? Or ride out the career year Cruz is going to put up? I am in 2nd and absolutely playing for this year.
9:17
Paul Swydan: If that’s all it takes to get Stanton, do it RIGHT. NOW.
9:18
Jeff Zimmerman: Sell, Latos is crap, Correa and Gibson are comps to Latos right now.
9:18
Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Do you think Tulo will be trade in the next 12 months? And does his No-Trade clause help the yankees? (as we know he would accept a trade to them).
9:19
Paul Swydan: I think, ultimately, that the organization loves Tulo but is indifferent on CarGo, and CarGo has replacements readily available right now. I expect CarGo to be traded this winter, not Tulo.
9:19
Comment From john
as the reds are starting to play better do you think they will make a splash before deadline
9:19
Jeff Zimmerman: No idea really
9:19
Paul Swydan: I never expect the Reds to make a splash. Ever.
9:19
Jeff Zimmerman: The Reds never trades, at least it seems that way.
9:19
Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Thoughts on the HR derby Contestants (Brian Dozier??).
9:20
Jeff Zimmerman: I haven’t seen who they are and truthfully don’t care.
9:20
Paul Swydan: Dozier is there because the game is in Minnesota and it’s nice to have someone for the home team. I might quibble with Adam Jones, but after Cruz turned it down, he was probably the most willing. Overall, it’s a great field.
9:21
Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
IF, they come up with strong evidence that some banned substances do help prevent arm injuries for pitchers, would you be all for legalizing them?
9:21
Paul Swydan: I’m all for legalizing them now. End the charade.
9:21
Paul Swydan: Education is the way to get kids to not do drugs. Banning them has no effect.
9:22
Jeff Zimmerman: What Paul said.
9:22
Comment From Jimmers
Could you hit a 3 iron further than Giancarlo hits a baseball?
9:23
Jeff Zimmerman: No.
9:23
Paul Swydan: Definitely not. If I could hit a 3 iron 450 feet, I probably wouldn’t be doing internet chats.
9:23
Paul Swydan: I can’t even hit my driver 450 feet. Who can?
9:23
Comment From Johnny
Verlander has given up 5 runs in the first, which contract will be more hindering long term: JV or Miguel>
9:24
Paul Swydan: Always bet on the pitcher to fall apart first. We all tend to love Verlander, but that contract never made much sense to me.
9:24
Jeff Zimmerman: Remember when Roy Halladay was never going to break down?
9:25
Comment From a snake
What’s the highest pitch sound you’ve ever heard?
9:25
Paul Swydan: Probably my daughter crying, which is happening right this very second.
9:26
Paul Swydan: (Don’t worry, my wife is on it. Though she’s not real pleased about it.)
9:26
Jeff Zimmerman: Don’t know……
9:26
Comment From Guest
Ho great would it be if Colorado hit the reset button by trading Tulo and Cargo in two separate blockbusters on the same day??
9:27
Paul Swydan: I just don’t see the argument for trading Tulo, unless you’re getting a major league caliber shortstop back in the deal. And chances are, you wouldn’t be.
9:27
Jeff Zimmerman: The internets would burst and the residents of CO would smoke a bowl and eat some girl scout cookies.
9:28
Paul Swydan: Or some edible marijuana. Come on Jeff, keep up.
9:28
Comment From Vliet
Could use some trade advise. Give Lucroy and get J. Zimmerman and Rosario. Thoughts?
9:28
Paul Swydan: Nope, not enough.
9:29
Jeff Zimmerman: Depends of depth of league, getting both in a NL league would be huge. All depends on WW depth or the lack of it.
9:29
Comment From Guest
Girl scout brand space cakes
9:29
Comment From Pork Sale
What would the Cardinals have to give up for Cole Hamels? With that salary commitment, wouldn’t a Piscotty headliner get it done?
9:29
Jeff Zimmerman: I could get fatter off them for sure.
9:30
Paul Swydan: A Piscotty headliner would definitely not get it done, no.
9:30
Comment From Matt
Hey guys uhhh if you’re above 11 years old you sholud be able to hit your driver 450 ft…
9:30
Jeff Zimmerman: Like the Phillies are going to trade aging vets. Get real.
9:30
Paul Swydan: Should I? I am thinking yards instead of feet. What are the general measurements at a driving range?
9:31
Comment From Matt
250 yards is a nice, solid adult drive
9:31
Comment From Matt
Pros hit 300+
9:31
Jeff Zimmerman: I can’t do that, I haven’t golfed in 15 years.
9:31
Paul Swydan: OK, so my mistake. Why did I think it was feet?
9:31
Comment From Brian S
Let’s just take the rest of the night and explain golf to Paul
9:32
Paul Swydan: Yeah, seriously.
9:32
Comment From Pork Sale
With Tulowitzki’s recent comments, would , or more importantly should the Cardinals make a run at him. Would the Rockies take Peralta as part of the no doubt, large return? Would Peralta, Piscotty, Martinez, and a high upside lower level guy be close?
9:32
Paul Swydan: A) The Cardinals should be calling the Rockies every day.
B) No, that’s not enough.
9:33
Jeff Zimmerman: It would take Taveras, top 10 guy and more.
9:33
Comment From Uncle Bill
What’s yall’s favorite sandwich?
9:33
Paul Swydan: Meatball or chicken salad, usually.
9:33
Jeff Zimmerman: Good ruben
9:34
Paul Swydan: Yeah that’s a good one too. Not too many places where that happens, tho.
9:34
Jeff Zimmerman: Po’boy
9:34
Paul Swydan: Also good, same thing about scarcity. Unless you live in the south, I guess. Which I don’t.
9:34
Comment From Ryan
Whose extension looks worse: Votto or Verlander?
9:34
Paul Swydan: Still Verlander, but Votto’s isn’t looking pretty.
9:34
Jeff Zimmerman: Torta with machca (sp?)
9:35
Jeff Zimmerman: Verlander.
9:35
Comment From Rick
Bautista for Kluber and Marte a solid deal?
9:35
Paul Swydan: Yeah that’s solid. I like that.
9:35
Jeff Zimmerman: In a keeper I Kluber and Marte more.
9:35
Comment From Joe
Because literally every FG writer must answer this question: Opinion on the A’s/Cubs trade?
9:36
Paul Swydan: I thought it was win-win, especially when you look at the list of available starting pitchers now to contenders. Weaver coming down with back pain last night was like a double whammy.
9:36
Jeff Zimmerman: I like it, both teams got good pieces. The Cubs now need to figure out what to do with their pieces.
9:37
Comment From Pork Sale
Wow! Taveras plus a top ten guy? Would that at least include taking on Peralta? I get it, but the whole Coors factor/118 million owed would seem to factor in a bit more. Thanks for the answer!
9:37
Paul Swydan: The Rockies have absolutely no reason to take on Jhonny Peralta. He only makes sense for a contender, and the Rockies can’t even contend with Tulo. Sorry.
9:38
Comment From Geust
In a world where they all pan out, do the Cubs really have that big of a problem? Bryant’s bat plays well in the OF, Baez/Castro/Russell can spread around 2B/SS/3B…
9:38
Paul Swydan: Whoops, sorry Jeff.
9:38
Paul Swydan: Oh, Jeff will be right back.
9:39
Paul Swydan: As to Geust, you’re forgetting about Arismendy Alcantara, who is also a top 100 prospect and is hitting very well for the iCubs this year. They have one more infielder than they can play, even with Bryant going to the outfield.

I think you solve this by trying to move Castro for pitching. Or by making Alcantara an outfielder as well. Not sure. Interested to see what they do.

9:39
Comment From Rated Rookie
Paul: Is that really your headshot on your Twitter profile?
9:40
Paul Swydan: I mean, it’s not a professional headshot or anything. It’s just a pic my wife took of me in our kitchen. But yes, it’s really me, if that’s what you’re asking.
9:40
Jeff Zimmerman: Yep that is Paul
9:40
Comment From russ
Ottoneu, just lost E5, I have a tenuous 1 point lead for first, who do you start at 3B: Josh ‘All Star’ Harrison or Chase ‘I’m a disappointment to my own mother’ Headly (5×5 old school)
9:41
Paul Swydan: Uh, probably Harrison unless Headley is traded.
9:41
Jeff Zimmerman: Harrison for now.
9:41
Paul Swydan: Though really, I’d just go matchups.
9:41
Comment From Marge Schott
Would you take Alex Rios or Brandon Moss, ROS ?
9:42
Paul Swydan: Moss for me, though it depends on your need… your need, for speed.
9:42
Jeff Zimmerman: Moss, take the power.
9:42
Comment From Rated Rookie
McAllister or Salazar on Saturday for CLE?
9:43
Paul Swydan: Kind of not my call, but I’d like to see Salazar get another crack at it in advance of the trade deadline. If he’s fixed, then CLE’s need to trade for a SP goes down dramatically.
9:43
Paul Swydan: McAllister is who McAllister is.
9:43
Jeff Zimmerman: McAllister is the safe call, but I would love to see Salazar.
9:44
Comment From Skimpy
When will the O’s admit Gausman is the best SP they have and stop messing around with him?
9:44
Paul Swydan: When they sent him down, it read like they were doing so to keep his innings down a little bit. Seems silly to me, but at least they had a reason other than “we have five better guys.”
9:45
Jeff Zimmerman: Because he has pitched horrible without any results to prove other wise. He will be the Orioles Phil Hughes with his flyball tendencies.
9:45
Comment From russ
Adam Jones extension seems to be paying off, since people are talking about extensions and all. Fun fact: it made AJ highest paid player in Orioles history. Not fun fact: Jiminez’s deal was highest pitchers FA deal in Orioles history
9:46
Jeff Zimmerman: more on Gausman: https://twitter.com/jeffwzi…
9:46
Paul Swydan: Yeah, no one ever talks about Adam Jones, but he just consistently puts in work. Gotta respect that.
9:47
Jeff Zimmerman: Jones just does the same thing every year. Kind of reminds me of Matt Holliday.
9:47
Paul Swydan: Yes, I like that comp.
9:47
Comment From Guets
I think they have been giving Alcantara reps in CF.
9:47
Jeff Zimmerman: ok
9:48
Paul Swydan: Yes, but they also have Albert Almora coming in center. The question is whether or not an outfield of Alcantara-Almora-Bryant is good enough. That’s two infielders in the outfield, and Alcantara doesn’t profile to have the typical corner outfield power. Not saying it can’t work, just that it’s probably not ideal.
9:48
Paul Swydan: Of course, having an entirely homegrown infield and outfield IS ideal, so….
9:48
9:49
Paul Swydan: That dude is ugly. And what the hell is he looking at, anyway?
9:49
Jeff Zimmerman: Eno’s hair?
9:49
Comment From Matt
Paul you love Taveras correct?
9:49
Paul Swydan: Love is a strong word. I’m a little concerned that it took him this long to break through. But I definitely like him.
9:50
Jeff Zimmerman: He needs to begin producing soon.
9:50
Comment From The Watcher
What would you feel if I told you ever question you answered tonight was submitted by me under a rotating array of socks?
9:51
Paul Swydan: This would probably be funnier if I hadn’t given up on Fringe in the middle of season 2.
9:51
Jeff Zimmerman: I have done weirder things… a lot weirder.
9:51
Comment From Jimmers
If in 5 years, hitting and scoring is reaching all time lows, what changes do you think should be implemented to get the hitting back up?
9:52
Paul Swydan: I don’t think any changes should be implemented at a league/rules level.
9:52
Jeff Zimmerman: Expansion or tighter baseball.
9:52
Jeff Zimmerman: The baseball will not be official.
9:53
Comment From Jimmers
What is a good batting avg to have in a softball league?
9:53
Jeff Zimmerman: .750 at least.
9:53
Paul Swydan: Your batting average in a slow-pitch softball league isn’t good unless you’re hitting .900.
9:53
Comment From The Watcher
*Fringe
9:54
Comment From Tommy From Quinzee
Am I the only one annoyed by fans clamoring for the Red Sox to blow things up and “let the kids play”??!? Like letting the kids play isn’t the reason why the team sucks?? Great, let’s rush more prospects to the majors and burn service time during a lost season, perfect way to prepare for the future right there! Like they expect the team to be a contender next year by running out the same awful lineup, but with CHRISTIAN VAZQUEZ, who will be their offensive savior. I guess they think Xander will suddenly start hitting again after he’s moved back 40 feet to the left, because his mind is so fragile he can’t take the change!! Isn’t there a better plan than “do nothing and hope it gets better”? Because that plan ISN’T WORKING. Who the hell is going to carry the team’s offense next year?!?
9:54
Jeff Zimmerman: Which free agents are available again?
9:55
Comment From russ
Cruz. (answer to Sox FA available question)
9:55
Comment From Cub fan
Relax man, your team has won a lot lately
9:55
Comment From Idea man
Have Paul and Jeff pitch all the innings!
9:55
Paul Swydan: First of all, settle down.
Second of all, they’re already burning the clock on Betts, Bogaerts and Bradley, so you might as well play them.
Third of all, the Red Sox don’t need to play service time games.
Fourth of all, you play the kids because watching veterans suck at baseball is about as fun as that torture Daniel Craig had to endure in Casino Royale.
9:56
Comment From Bradley
Quest for Paul: Why did Bost call betts up and sit him on bench?
9:56
Paul Swydan: No clue.
9:57
Comment From Paul Swydan
I’ve been hanging out with Elijah Dukes a lot recently … I’ve learned so much more about the game
9:57
Paul Swydan: Hey now, that hurts.
9:57
Comment From Joe
Jon Lester, career year or a real step forward?
9:58
Paul Swydan: Going to say career year.
9:58
Jeff Zimmerman: Career year. Step forward are uncommon at his age.
9:58
Comment From Cash4Gold
Which fangrapher is most likely to sit on a phonebook while driving?
9:59
Paul Swydan: Wiers, probably.
9:59
Jeff Zimmerman: I was going to say Cwik … Wiers is it.
9:59
Comment From Battle Royale
Which one of you would win in a fight?
9:59
Jeff Zimmerman: Me
10:00
Paul Swydan: Jeff! Jeff was in the Navy. He probably knows 13 ways to kill me before I even land a punch.
10:00
Comment From russ
can FanGraphs have a hangout somewhere on the East Coast somewhere south of the Mason-Dixon at some point?
10:00
Jeff Zimmerman: or just send you 4400 words on TJS.
10:00
Jeff Zimmerman: Cameron’s house?
10:00
Paul Swydan: I’d be down to have an event in Charleston if Appelman wants to pay for my flight down there!
10:01
Comment From Cash4Gold
I’m surprised you computer nerds even know what a phone book is.
10:01
Paul Swydan: One was thrown in my driveway yesterday. I promptly tossed it in the trash. What is it, 1994?
10:02
Paul Swydan: OK, guys, I think we’re going to have to call it a night. Thanks so much for hanging out. Talk to you next week!


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Paul Swydan is the managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for Boston.com. He has written for The Boston Globe, ESPN MLB Insider and ESPN the Magazine, among others. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan.


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