FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 7/9/13

6:03
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9 pm ET. Chris and I for sure, hopefully Jeff too. We’ll talk baseball, we’ll talk how awesome I thought “Man Of Steel” was, and we’ll talk about other stuff too. Get your questions and comments in now! (polls at bottom of transcript)

9:02
Paul Swydan: What’s going on, Voltron?
9:02
Paul Swydan: Speaking of Voltron…
9:03
Chris Cwik: Hi
9:03
Comment From Wobbles
did they have to take braun off the DL right before he’s suspended? ow, right in the stashing options!
9:04
Chris Cwik: He’ll appeal, and this thing will be dragged out for soooo long.

9:04
Paul Swydan: Ha. For the record, I don’t think it matters. Someone in my Twitter feed mentioned that Freddy Galvis served part of his suspension while on the DL.
9:04
Jeff Zimmerman: and so did Volquez
9:04
Comment From filihok
If both were free agents after this season. Who would you want to sign? Miggy or Cano? How much/long?
9:04
Paul Swydan: Miggy. But it’s close.
9:05
Jeff Zimmerman: Miggy, 5 years, I don’t think Cano will age well.
9:05
Chris Cwik: Miggy as well.
9:05
Comment From Steve
Man of Steel was bad. Awfully bad. Compare it to a baseball player?
9:05
Paul Swydan: Leave this chat right now.
9:05
Chris Cwik: Didn’t see it yet, but want to. Heard mixed reviews.
9:06
Paul Swydan: I loved it, if that wasn’t yet incredibly clear.
9:06
Comment From Bruce
Hi…my first time in chat. Can we ask quest. About fantasy players etc?
9:06
Jeff Zimmerman: Sidd Finch, never seen either one
9:06
Paul Swydan: But of course!
9:07
Comment From Tom
Lee + cash to the cardinals for Wong and Martinez?
9:07
Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t think the cash needs to go if sent to the Rangers. Phillies will get more from them.
9:07
Paul Swydan: I think that’s light. Wong hasn’t been anything special in the PCL.
9:08
Chris Cwik: Yeah, Wong is the issue there. He doesn’t have a high ceiling.
9:08
Comment From Nick
Did this chat change days? Or did I just miss it last week?
9:08
Chris Cwik: You probably missed it.
9:08
Paul Swydan: We did it on Wednesday last week, because I went to the Red Sox game on Tuesday.
9:08
Chris Cwik: Cause it didn’t happen on the right day
9:09
Comment From Ryan
So, the (potential) Biogensis-related suspension of Nelson Cruz opens the door for Manny in Texas, right? Any thoughts on whether he can still play in the majors?
9:09
Chris Cwik: I think Manny is cooked.
9:09
Paul Swydan: Now that would be ironic, wouldn’t it? But I think Berkman’s annual injury also opened the door.
9:10
Paul Swydan: He may also be cooked, of course, but that doesn’t mean he won’t get a chance.
9:10
Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t know about Manny still having it, but it is a small risk for the Rangers.
9:10
Jeff Zimmerman: and is better than relying on Overbay like the Yankees are.
9:10
Comment From Zaun
Rank these guys 1-6 in order of who you think will be the most productive offensive player longterm. Harper, Buxton, Puig, Trout, Taveras, and Machado
9:11
Chris Cwik: Harper, Trout…Jesus, why did you make this so hard? They are all awesome, but I’ll take those two first.
9:11
Paul Swydan: Trout, Harper, Puig, Machado, Taveras, Buxton

But the last two are just a guess. Don’t think we really know what to expect w those guys yet.

9:11
Jeff Zimmerman: Harper, Machado, Trout, ….. not sure on rest.
9:11
Chris Cwik: I would possibly put Buxton third based on some of the reviews this year.
9:12
Comment From Jason
What’s the deal with Justin Smoak? Smoak and mirrors or legit turnaround?
9:12
Jeff Zimmerman: i think quite a bit of Trouts value is in his Defense and running.
9:12
Paul Swydan: Same goes for Harper though, I think.
9:13
Jeff Zimmerman: .600 babip in July is not going last (Smoak)
9:13
Chris Cwik: Smoak has a .331 BABIP against a career .267. I know .267 if low, but…I dunno if I expect much more than this.
9:13
Paul Swydan: RE: Smoak, let’s see what happens when his BABIP comes down from .331 back to his career norms.
9:13
Paul Swydan: AGREEMENTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
9:13
Comment From AJT
Man of Steel was okay. Had some issues, but I enjoyed it overall.
9:13
Paul Swydan: It had ZERO issues. But you didn’t insult it, so you can stay.
9:14
Comment From regressing errdyay
Adam Eaton just got called back up. What should we expect from him this season? What would be some comps? Thanks
9:14
Paul Swydan: I am hesitant to put the expectations on him that I had before the injury, but I would hope for.280 and at least 10 steals.
9:15
Chris Cwik: Who is an all around slightly above average outfielder? Maybe a Shane Victorino in his prime, but with better defense?
9:15
Chris Cwik: Eventually…not this year.
9:15
Jeff Zimmerman: David DeJesus in his prime?
9:15
Comment From Ryan B
Over/under 1 month before Braun, ECab, et al start serving Biogenesis suspensions?
9:15
Paul Swydan: Over. As Chris said, there will be appeals.
9:15
Jeff Zimmerman: Over, way over.
9:15
Chris Cwik: Yup.
9:16
Comment From Aaron
If Krypton was such a technologically advanced society, why did Jor-El have to ride that four-winged dragon thing?
9:16
Paul Swydan: You’re saying a four-winged dragon isn’t more technically advanced than a two-winged dragon? OK……
9:16
Jeff Zimmerman: Because riding a dragon would be the bomb.
9:16
Paul Swydan: Also, it’s a dragon. Who the hell WOULDN’T want to ride it!
9:17
Comment From Sgt. Pepper
This is the only chat I’m ever awake for
9:17
Paul Swydan: I think this is a compliment, but I’m not sure….
9:18
Jeff Zimmerman: I am sure there are some non-baseball chats you could involve yourself with.
9:18
Comment From M. Titus
Does UZR have it wrong about Jon Jay this year? Seems like his defensive numbers have taken a serious dive, but he’s still making plays on the field.
9:18
Chris Cwik: I don’t see enough of him to give you a great answer here.
9:19
Paul Swydan: Keep in mind that UZR mentions things besides the plays that a player actually makes. A high fielding percentage won’t necessarily equal a high UZR.
9:19
Jeff Zimmerman: and the baseline could have changed, better CFer’s
9:20
Paul Swydan: Having said that, Jay hasn’t been deemed such an overwhelmingly good defensive player in the past that his current UZR is way out of line.
9:20
Comment From Sgt. Pepper
Hayhurst says trade Janssen because they have a deep pen and “proven closers” are overvalued. Yes/No/What could they get for him.
9:21
Jeff Zimmerman: A couple of bullpen prospects at best.
9:21
Chris Cwik: He’s right. You could deal Janssen and replace him easily, but you wouldn’t get a high impact guy
9:21
Paul Swydan: No reason to trade a high-performing member of your bullpen when you’re trying to reach the postseason. And as we’ve said in previous chats, the Blue Jays are bringing the same team back next year, and with better health they could be much better, so there’s no reason to sell off. Especially for a modest return, which is all they would get IMO.
9:22
Paul Swydan: Honestly, the more I hear from Hayhurst the more I’m convinced that he’s just another talking head who we really shouldn’t be paying any mind.
9:22
Comment From zack
Man, how desperate are the giants if they were willing to take a chance on Francoeur?
9:22
Jeff Zimmerman: Well, on a side note, Chipper Jones will not be watching the the Royals-Yankees game tonight.
9:22
Chris Cwik: Yeah. I don’t know what to make of this Giants acquisition. I guess they are really looking for some power?
9:23
Jeff Zimmerman: No real chance, they just have to pay him a pro-rate amount of the league min. They could dump him in a week.
9:23
Paul Swydan: I honestly don’t see the issue with the Francoeur move. The Giants have exactly one outfielder who has a better than 100 wRC+. It’s not like he’s going to be stealing time from All-Stars. If it works, it works, if it doesn’t, what was the harm?
9:24
Jeff Zimmerman: Still my favorite memory of Frenchy: http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/1439293/FrenchThrow_medium.gif
9:24
Comment From Tim
Man of Steel was great. Steve is a fool
9:24
Paul Swydan: Tim is the best.
9:24
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Hey Paul, I heard that Lone Ranger was pretty bad. Tell me how good it was.
9:24
Jeff Zimmerman: Yea Paul.
9:25
Paul Swydan: Lone Ranger is slated to lose $140 million. It was a disaster from the moment it was conceived. I’m insulted you would even draw that comparison.
9:25
Comment From Uncle Chips
Better ROS….De Aza or Josh Reddick?
9:25
Paul Swydan: De Aza is currently one of just 11 players to already have a 10-10 season. I’ll stick with him.
9:26
Jeff Zimmerman: Reddick, but both have issues. Aza if needing a speed in a fantasy league.
9:26
Chris Cwik: Didn’t realize that. Guess you might have to grab De Aza
9:26
Comment From Tom
Who wins the NL West?
9:26
Chris Cwik: D-Backs
9:26
Paul Swydan: I said Giants at beginning of year….so I guess I’ll go down with that ship. They shouldn’t be this bad.
9:27
Jeff Zimmerman: I am with Chris, D-Backs.
9:27
Comment From gordon
Schierholtz or Nava?
9:27
Paul Swydan: Nava, but I like both.
9:27
Chris Cwik: I would also go Nava
9:27
Jeff Zimmerman: Schierholtz
9:27
Comment From Jim
If the biogenesis suspensions are ruled valid, when do you think they’ll start being served?
9:28
Chris Cwik: Probably next year. I could see this dragging into the offseason.
9:28
Paul Swydan: Right after the ruling, but I don’t think that happens this year. I also don’t think there’s any way an impartial person could view them as 100% valid.
9:28
Jeff Zimmerman: Off season.
9:28
Comment From mick
Does Machado know when I bench him and does he then punish me for it…
9:28
Paul Swydan: You have a better 3B option on your team than Machado? Can I join your league?
9:29
Chris Cwik: Why do you bench him? That’s the better question
9:29
Jeff Zimmerman: Sounds like my Ottoneau league (miggy also)
9:29
Comment From F U Jobu
Does Schoop inherit the 2b job next year or do the O’s sign a veteran rental for insurance? or maybe resign Roberts cheaply?
9:30
Chris Cwik: I don’t think they turn to Schoop, so one of those other two things you mentioned.
9:30
Jeff Zimmerman: I am not a fan of Schoop at all, hate the wide stance (if he still has it). I think they will have a plan B and C in place.
9:30
Paul Swydan: If Schoop can come back after the break and prove he is healthy, I would assume he inherits the job with Flaherty being his veteran caddy. I doubt Roberts is guaranteed a major league job by anyone this offseason. He’d be an NRI for any team I was running, certainly.
9:31
Comment From Someone
I took your advice and joined a fantasy league! Would it be reasonable to draft Hanley Ramirez with the 17th pick? (5×5 redraft league)
9:31
Paul Swydan: For right this second, it’s not a bad pick, but there are other guys I would want with that slot. I don’t think Hanley keeps up the torrid pace he has set the last couple of weeks.
9:32
Jeff Zimmerman: Yea. could be worse.
9:32
Chris Cwik: Agree with Paul. But would consider Hanley around that spot.
9:32
Comment From guest
what is your favorite thing about carson cistulli?
9:32
Chris Cwik: His glasses
9:33
Paul Swydan: Carson is incredibly quick with witty retorts.
9:33
Jeff Zimmerman: It physique, I can stand next to him and look like He-man.
9:34
Comment From zack
Paul, your Padres have started sucking again. What gives?
9:34
Paul Swydan: They refuse to add a pitcher. Not sure why. Almost like they want to suck.
9:34
Jeff Zimmerman: They are hurt and not that good.
9:35
Chris Cwik: You don’t look so smart now, Paul. Do you?
9:35
Paul Swydan: I’ve never looked smart before, why start now?
9:36
Comment From Not Zack Greinke
Do you think Zack Greinke is cute?
9:36
Chris Cwik: I wouldn’t call him cute.
9:36
Jeff Zimmerman: Nope.
9:36
Paul Swydan: He has kind of sharp angles on his face that I find a little offputting.
9:36
Paul Swydan: So…no.
9:37
Comment From zack
How hilarious was it to watch Bartolo Colon bat and run?
9:37
Paul Swydan: Not as hilarious as it was to watch Rich Garces hit and run.
9:37
Chris Cwik: I want all the GIFs
9:37
Jeff Zimmerman: I always preferred watching the Big Unit hit.
9:38
Comment From UdUpLaYeR
Best thing about Cistulli: his appearance in ESPN Magazine’s Body Issue (see the pic I uploaded in the comments of his latest NotGraphs article).
9:38
Paul Swydan: I’m not sure I want to!
9:38
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Greg Holland strikes out a lot of guys. Talk about that.
9:39
Paul Swydan: He should have AT LEAST been a final vote candidate
9:39
Chris Cwik: Agreed.
9:40
Jeff Zimmerman: He struggled for a bit, but is now lights out. Last night vs. the Yanks was just awesome.
9:40
Comment From David Wells
I bunted for a hit in my first game with the Dodgers. Beat that, Bartolo!
9:40
Paul Swydan: Yeah, Bartolo!
9:41
Comment From Gila Monster
Would you deal Pablo Sandoval if you had HanRam at 3rd and J.J. Party at SS?
9:41
Paul Swydan: Yeah probably. Sandoval hasn’t been all that great this year, and if you can get someone to trade on his name, then you may come out ahead.
9:42
Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, as long as it fills a nice void on your team.
9:42
Comment From Gary
Friend and I were talking: If the fences at all parks were moved back 50 ft what would you have to change as a GM in prioritizing players?
9:43
Jeff Zimmerman: extreme flyball/home run hitters. And it would be tough to hide a bad defender in the OF.
9:43
Paul Swydan: I would think you would have more speedy outfielders signed as defensive replacements.
9:44
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Best Arnold movie. For me it’s Total Recall.
9:44
Paul Swydan: Total Recall is a big fave of mine, but T2 is prob the better movie. I also have a soft spot for Predator as well.
9:45
9:45
Comment From Preston
Will the Mariners make Morales and Morse available?
9:46
Paul Swydan: Well, there was no reason to sign them in the first place, so I don’t think that we can be certain that they’ll trade them now either.
9:46
Jeff Zimmerman: No idea, they are just unpredictable.
9:47
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Cwik vs. Swydan vs. Zimmerman – Steel Cage Deathmatch. Who comes out on top?
9:47
Paul Swydan: I’m pretty sure Jeff would kick the crap out of both of us.
9:47
Chris Cwik: Me, obviously
9:47
Jeff Zimmerman: Does Cwik have his mustache?
9:47
Paul Swydan: He needs all the help he can get!
9:48
Chris Cwik: Maybe
9:48
Comment From filihok
Why don’t the FanGraphs leader boards allow one to get league totals over a range of seasons?
9:48
Jeff Zimmerman: They do
9:49
Jeff Zimmerman: the multiple season option.
9:49
Paul Swydan: I’m not sure, but I’m guessing it’s because there are different adjustments for each season.
9:49
Paul Swydan: I did that Jeff, GOSH.
9:50
Jeff Zimmerman: You’re the smart one Paul.
9:50
Paul Swydan: ha
9:50
Comment From Jaack
Better defensive outfielder: Lucas Duda or a Walrus stapled to the ground?
9:50
Paul Swydan: The walrus.
9:50
Chris Cwik: Walrus based on wingspan?
9:51
Jeff Zimmerman: I need to IM Eno on that one.
9:51
Comment From Uncle Chips
Dynasty League…..Should I trade my Encarnacion and Longoria for his Goldschmidt and Carlos Gonzalez?
9:51
Chris Cwik: I don’t think I would, actually.
9:51
Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, now.
9:51
Paul Swydan: Oooooooo. E5 is the oldest…
9:52
Comment From Eddie
kemp or marte as a keeper for next year on a 4-keeper HoH league? already have CarGo, HanRam, and Rizzo as the other keepers..
9:52
Jeff Zimmerman: Gold > E5 and the others are wash.
9:52
Chris Cwik: Kemp
9:52
Paul Swydan: Can’t trust Kemp for next year, so Marte by default.
9:53
Jeff Zimmerman: Marte is the safe bet, Kemp has the upside to be a top 5 player. It all depends on how much risk you are will to take.
9:54
Comment From Gary
if the M’s are unpredictable. Which organization is predictable then?
9:54
Chris Cwik: Cards?
9:54
Paul Swydan: Marlins are fairly predictable.
9:55
Jeff Zimmerman: The Royals, the will sign every low OBP free agent to a multi-year contract.
9:55
Comment From matt
Whose story would make a better movie…Ubaldo or Jose Fernandez? Bonus question: which would make the better musical?
9:56
Chris Cwik: Ubaldo is the better musical based solely on name.
9:56
Paul Swydan: Ubaldo’s. There’s more story there. Jose Fernandez’s story is just beginning.
9:56
Jeff Zimmerman: I will go with Paul on this one.
9:56
Comment From Owen
Why staple a walrus to the ground? Let that guy roam the outfield!
9:56
Chris Cwik: Indeed
9:57
Comment From Jaack
The Dodgers are really predictable: they will just sign everyone.
9:57
Paul Swydan: Agreed! Several teams are predictable, I feel like.
9:57
Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Why does FG list players that were traded midseason as 2 Teams, instead of their actual teams? Does it have something to do with the WAR calc?
9:58
Paul Swydan: You can see the breakout if you click on “partial seasons” at the top of the stats box.
9:58
Jeff Zimmerman: if it works.
9:58
Comment From Boddington Leigh
Silk and spices to America for Thomas Jefferson and cash?
9:58
Paul Swydan: Probably a fair deal.
9:59
Jeff Zimmerman: Before or after the Louisiana Purchase?
9:59
Chris Cwik: Jefferson is worth more than that.
9:59
Comment From Gary
for an ownership stake in the beloit snappers: field f/x eta?
10:00
Jeff Zimmerman: I would bet on never.
10:00
Paul Swydan: Pretty sure there is no ETA. I’ve been told to not expect it to become publicly available, so I think something drastic would have to change.
10:00
Jeff Zimmerman: We would see hitf/x first.
10:00
Comment From Callous Carlos
Fowler or Jennings?
10:00
Paul Swydan: Dexter Fowler is a bad man.
10:00
Chris Cwik: Fowler
10:01
Jeff Zimmerman: Fowler, but I would not have made this call before this season.
10:01
Paul Swydan: I WOULD HAVE!
10:01
Comment From Garys Friend
I think doubles are the most satisfying base hit in baseball.
10:01
Chris Cwik: Triples more fun
10:02
Jeff Zimmerman: Fowler is your love child Paul, I know you cried when he wasn’t picked for ESPN’s body issue.
10:02
Paul Swydan: I didn’t cry, because I got to do my own private photo shoot.
10:02
Jeff Zimmerman: Infield singles by big boned men.
10:02
Paul Swydan: Maybe doubles are the most satisfying, but I think the triple is the most exciting.
10:03
Paul Swydan: And now, for me, it’s the most exciting part of my day — the part where I go to sleep!

Thanks everyone for hanging out tonight. Not sure what we’ll be doing next week, but if you want us to live blog the whole ASG holler at Chris or myself on Twitter.

Night!

10:04
Jeff Zimmerman: Eno on the stapled Walrus vs Duda: at least the Walrus would field the balls hit right at him.
10:04
Paul Swydan: True that!
10:04
Chris Cwik: See y’all later
10:04
Jeff Zimmerman: Later.

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Paul Swydan is the managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for the Boston Globe. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan.


10 Responses to “FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 7/9/13”

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  1. Edge O says:

    What is it about Joe Blanton that historically the last 3-4 years, his ERA underperforms what his FIP and xFIP says it should be?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Edge O says:

    What is happening with Cody Buckel? Is he hurt? Re-working mechanics somewhere? Mental break ala Greinke or Danny Duffy or Dontrelle Willis?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Clifford says:

      this might be the strangest question ive ever seen. Comparing Cody Buckel to Greinke, Danny Duffy, and Dontrelle Willis. Awesome.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. Edge O says:

    Max Kepler has recently returned from injury and off to a hot start. He’s a few years away but do you see him as a regular? What kind of upside? A comp?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. Edge O says:

    What’s the deal with Fielder slugging less than 500. Walk rate and K rate are relatively in line. Do you see something?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Travis L says:

      Power takes a long time to stabilize. He’s just 29, I wouldn’t be overly concerned but do expect him to start his decline in the next couple of years.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. Simon says:

    What’s up with Edge O?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  6. Edge O says:

    If Peralta is suspended Tigers will need a SS to go with a closer. Tall order for a mediocre farm system?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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