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Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.


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yosoyfiesta
Member
yosoyfiesta
4 years 4 months ago

How has Jesus Montero not lived up to expectations? He’s 22, in his first full season and owns a .275/.289/.431 slash line. His ISO isn’t .262 like it was in the small sample last year and he’s not walking as much, but he’s clubbed 4 HR and is on pace to hit 20-25 with decent production stats. His walk rate and OBP will come around, so aside from his OBP and walk rate being down, I’d say he’s absolutely lived up to expectations. If anyone thinks he hasn’t, I’d love to know what their expectations were of him, because they were probably bordering on lunacy.

SchoolboyQ
Guest
SchoolboyQ
4 years 4 months ago

Simply pointing out the walk rate doesn’t mean it’s now free from criticism. Hitting a few home runs in a SSS isn’t meaningful either way, his approach has been disappointing so far. I’d much rather he was homerless at this point with good rates, because I never really doubted his power. You can point to age all you want, his body is much more developed than guys his age and he doesn’t have as much room to grow as the usual 22 year old. For a guy with no positional value, his performance certainly can’t be looked at as any type of victory.

yosoyfiesta
Member
yosoyfiesta
4 years 4 months ago

Not sure what leagues you’re playing in, he has C eligibility in the 3 leagues I have him in. You talk about his rate stats as if they’re terrible, they may be sub-what-you-hoped-for, but it’s still early. Great, so he looks bigger than most guys his age, doesn’t change the amount of time he’s had in the majors. The guy can hit, he’s an aggressive hitter and he’s going to take his cuts. I’m not exactly sure what you’ve seen in his approach that you’ve found disappointing, you’d have to be more specific. If you simply mean that he’s an aggressive hitter and you’d like to see him be more selective to get his rate stats up, fine. Seattle didn’t go out and get him to watch him take pitches, they want him to hit and hit he will!

Steve
Guest
Steve
4 years 4 months ago

Dave, you said “bunt defenders” assume a 100% success rate on sacrifices, when often, bunts fail. I am by no means a bunt defender, but sacrifice bunts often result in outcomes much more favorable than expected (bunt hits, errors, etc.). While sac bunts might not be 100% successful, the net result is that they are more valuable than if they were.

Excerpt from The Book:

If you were to ask almost any manager whether he would rather advance the runner to second in exchange for an out, or have the batter attempt a sacrifice, how do you think he would respond? If you answered, “Take the guaranteed sacrifice,” we think that you would be right. What a poor decision that would be. It’s not even close!

Shauntell
Guest
Shauntell
4 years 4 months ago

Hamilton is not clearly a better hitter than Fielder.

Fielder has got a career 141wrC+, Hamilton a 140wrC+. Fielder has a lower batting average, but has more power and walks more

wpDiscuz