FanGraphs Crowd: The Top 82 Free Agents

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs once again facilitated this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2015-16 free-agent market.

Below are the results of same. For each player, respondents provided estimates of the years and dollars he’s likely to receive. Also, in such cases as a player is a candidate to receive a qualifying offer from his club, readers predicted whether he would or not — and whether, having received a qualifying offer, that player would accept it. Answers to other questions — regarding options, for example — also appear below.

What the reader will note regarding this particular list relative to previous iterations of same is its considerable length. This same exercise last year contained 55 names; the year before that, 47. Below, one finds 82 of them. The greater size is not the product of a concerted effort to provide greater coverage, but rather of mere necessity: the quantity of useful free agents (or potential free agents, at least) appears itself simply to be greater than in recent years.

Note that players with options certain to be exercised were omitted from balloting. Note also that, despite having received ballots, both Jaime Garcia and Torii Hunter have been omitted from the list below, owing to their near futures having been already determined — by the exercise of an option in the former case, retirement in the latter. Note finally that the crowd has demonstrated a distinct tendency to underestimate the overall contract values of free agents — especially among those players expected to receive the greatest compensation.

Players are ranked by total median projected contract value — and then, in such cases where players have received the same median contract estimate, by the total average contract value. A spreadsheet containing the results is available here. Statistics are from 2015. Offensive and defensive value are expressed relative to league average. Defensive value accounts both for defensive runs and positional adjustment. One can read more about both metrics here.

 

#1 David Price (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
29 220.1 9.19 1.92 40.4 % 2.45 2.78 3.24 7.1 6.4

Median Years: 7
Median AAV: $28 million
Total: $196 million

Average Years: 6.9
Average AAV: $27.5 million
Total: $190.8 million

 

#2 Jason Heyward (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
25 610 9.2 % 14.8 % .293 .359 .439 .346 121 21.6 16.4 6.0

Median Years: 8
Median AAV: $23 million
Total: $184 million

Average Years: 7.7
Average AAV: $22.7 million
Total: $174.7 million

Will the Cardinals extend Heyward a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 98%. No: 2%.

Will Heyward accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 98%. Yes: 2%.

 

#3 Zack Greinke (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
31 222.2 8.08 1.62 48.0 % 1.66 2.76 3.22 10.0 5.9

Median Years: 6
Median AAV: $26 million
Total: $156 million

Average Years: 5.8
Average AAV: $26.7 million
Total: $155.3 million

*Assumes he opts out of the three years and $71 million remaining on his contract, which he’s expected to do.

 

#4 Yoenis Cespedes (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
29 676 4.9 % 20.9 % .291 .328 .542 .367 135 31.2 10.6 6.7

Median Years: 6
Median AAV: $22 million
Total: $132 million

Average Years: 6.0
Average AAV: $21.5 million
Total: $128.4million

This guy really has the goods, doesn’t he?
Agree: 45%.
Strongly Agree: 29%.
Stupid Question: 15%.
Disagree: 10%.
Strongly Disagree: 1%.

 

#5 Johnny Cueto (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
29 212.0 7.47 1.95 42.5 % 3.44 3.53 3.78 4.3 4.1

Median Years: 6
Median AAV: $22 million
Total: $132 million

Average Years: 5.5
Average AAV: $21.0 million
Total: $115.6 million

 

#6 Jordan Zimmermann (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
29 201.2 7.32 1.74 42.0 % 3.66 3.75 3.82 2.9 3.0

Median Years: 6
Median AAV: $21 million
Total: $126 million

Average Years: 5.6
Average AAV: $20.8 million
Total: $116.8 million

Will the Nationals extend Zimmermann a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 99%. No: 1%.

Will Zimmermann accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 99%. Yes: 1%.

 

#7 Justin Upton (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
27 620 11.0 % 25.6 % .251 .336 .454 .340 120 18.8 -4.6 3.6

Median Years: 6
Median AAV: $20 million
Total: $120 million

Average Years: 6.4
Average AAV: $20.4 million
Total: $129.7 million

Will the Padres extend Upton a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 100%. No: 0%.

Will Upton accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 99%. Yes: 1%.

 

#8 Chris Davis (1B)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
29 670 12.5 % 31.0 % .262 .361 .562 .390 147 36.3 -5.5 5.6

Median Years: 5
Median AAV: $20 million
Total: $100 million

Average Years: 5.3
Average AAV: $20.5 million
Total: $109.3 million

Imagine to yourself 1,000 different universes. In how many of them do the Orioles extend a qualifying offer to Chris Davis?
100% of them: 46%.
Somehow more than 100% of them: 45%.
99% of them: 9%.

 

#9 Alex Gordon (3B/OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
31 422 11.6 % 21.8 % .271 .377 .432 .351 122 10.2 2.2 2.8

Median Years: 5
Median AAV: $18 million
Total: $90 million

Average Years: 4.9
Average AAV: $18.6 million
Total: $92.2 million

After Gordon declines his $12.5M player option, the Royals will extend Gordon a qualifying offer ($15.8M). Will he accept it?
No: 100%.

 

#10 Jeff Samardzija (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
30 214.0 6.86 2.06 39.0 % 4.96 4.23 4.31 1.0 2.7

Median Years: 4
Median AAV: $16 million
Total: $64 million

Average Years: 4.3
Average AAV: $16.2 million
Total: $69.7 million

Will the White Sox extend Samardzija a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 92%. No: 8%.

Will Samardzija accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 90%. Yes: 10%.

What mnemonic device, if any, do you employ to spell correctly this player’s surname?
Top Response #1: Google his name and let it auto-correct me.
Top Response #2: Wait, mnemonic device starts with an “m”?
Top Response #3: The black void swallows us all.

 

 

#11 Ian Desmond (SS)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
29 641 7.0 % 29.2 % .233 .290 .384 .294 83 -7.1 3.3 1.7

Median Years: 4
Median AAV: $15 million
Total: $60 million

Average Years: 4.2
Average AAV: $14.4 million
Total: $59.9 million

Will the Nationals extend Desmond a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 81%. No: 19%.

Will Desmond accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 84%. Yes: 16%.

 

#12 Mike Leake (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
27 192.0 5.58 2.30 51.8 % 3.70 4.20 3.93 3.1 1.7

Median Years: 4
Median AAV: $14 million
Total: $56 million

Average Years: 4.4
Average AAV: $14.0 million
Total: $61.4 million

 

#13 Yovani Gallardo (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
29 184.1 5.91 3.32 49.3 % 3.42 4.00 4.31 4.3 2.5

Median Years: 4
Median AAV: $14 million
Total: $56 million

Average Years: 3.9
Average AAV: $14.0 million
Total: $55.2 million

Will the Rangers extend Gallardo a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 89%. No: 11%.

Will Gallardo accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 91%. Yes: 9%.

 

#14 Dexter Fowler (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
29 690 12.2 % 22.3 % .250 .346 .411 .333 110 8.1 0.6 3.2

Median Years: 4
Median AAV: $14 million
Total: $56 million

Average Years: 3.9
Average AAV: $13.8 million
Total: $54.3 million

Will the Cubs extend Fowler a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 76%. No: 24%.

Will Fowler accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 84%. Yes: 16%.

 

#15 Wei-Yin Chen (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
29 191.1 7.20 1.93 40.5 % 3.34 4.16 4.01 4.2 2.8

Median Years: 4
Median AAV: $13 million
Total: $52 million

Average Years: 3.8
Average AAV: $13.1 million
Total: $50.2 million

Will the Orioles extend Chen a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 71%. No: 29%.

Will Chen accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 83%. Yes: 17%.

 

#16 Howie Kendrick (2B)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
31 495 5.5 % 16.6 % .295 .336 .409 .325 109 7.1 -2.8 2.1

Median Years: 4
Median AAV: $13 million
Total: $52 million

Average Years: 3.7
Average AAV: $13.2 million
Total: $48.5 million

Will the Dodgers extend Kendrick a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 73%. No: 27%.

Will Kendrick accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 79%. Yes: 21%.

Without looking, guess which figure is closest to Kendrick’s career BABIP over nearly 5,000 plate appearances.
Median guess (selected from range of .260-.350 by 10-point increments): .320.

 

#17 Matt Wieters (C)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
29 282 7.4 % 23.8 % .267 .319 .422 .321 100 -2.7 2.5 1.0

Median Years: 4
Median AAV: $12 million
Total: $48 million

Average Years: 3.7
Average AAV: $12.6 million
Total: $47.1 million

Will the Orioles extend Wieters a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 64%. No: 36%.

Will Wieters accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 69%. Yes: 31%.

 

#18 Daniel Murphy (2B)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
30 538 5.8 % 7.1 % .281 .322 .449 .325 110 5.9 1.0 2.5

Median Years: 4
Median AAV: $12 million
Total: $48 million

Average Years: 3.7
Average AAV: $12.6 million
Total: $46.2 million

Will the Mets extend Murphy a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 61%. No: 39%.

Will Murphy accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 73%. Yes: 27%.

 

#19 Scott Kazmir (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
31 183.0 7.62 2.90 42.9 % 3.10 3.98 4.14 3.6 2.4

Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $14 million
Total: $42 million

Average Years: 3.3
Average AAV: $14.6 million
Total: $47.8 million

 

#20 Ben Zobrist (2B/OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
34 535 11.6 % 10.5 % .276 .359 .450 .349 123 13.3 -11.5 2.1

Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $14 million
Total: $42 million

Average Years: 3.3
Average AAV: $14.1 million
Total: $46.3 million

 

#21 Hisashi Iwakuma (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
34 129.2 7.70 1.46 50.4 % 3.54 3.74 3.27 2.5 1.8

Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $14 million
Total: $42 million

Average Years: 3.0
Average AAV: $14.5 million
Total: $42.8 million

Will the Mariners extend Iwakuma a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 83%. No: 17%.

Will Iwakuma accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 83%. Yes: 17%.

 

#22 Colby Rasmus (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
28 485 9.7 % 31.8 % .238 .314 .475 .339 115 13.4 -3.0 2.8

Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $12 million
Total: $36 million

Average Years: 3.4
Average AAV: $12.4 million
Total: $42.5 million

Will the Astros extend Rasmus a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
No: 57%. Yes: 43%.

Will Rasmus accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 75%. Yes: 25%.

 

#23 Marco Estrada (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
31 181.0 6.51 2.73 32.2 % 3.13 4.40 4.93 4.5 1.8

Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $12 million
Total: $36 million

Average Years: 3.1
Average AAV: $12.0 million
Total: $37.4 million

Will the Blue Jays extend Estrada a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
No: 58%. Yes: 42%.

Will Estrada accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 53%. Yes: 47%.

Were you to inform your past self from, like, a month ago that you were contemplating Marco Estrada’s potential receipt of a qualifying offer, would your past self believe you?
No: 69%. Yes: 31%.

 

#24 Ian Kennedy (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
30 168.1 9.30 2.78 38.5 % 4.28 4.51 3.70 -0.3 0.8

Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $12 million
Total: $36 million

Average Years: 3.0
Average AAV: $12.2 million
Total: $37.1 million

Will the Padres extend Kennedy a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
No: 57%. Yes: 43%.

Will Kennedy accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 62%. Yes: 38%.

 

#25 Denard Span (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
31 275 9.1 % 9.5 % .301 .365 .431 .348 120 8.9 -4.0 1.4

Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $12 million
Total: $36 million

Average Years: 3.0
Average AAV: $12.0 million
Total: $35.4 million

Will the Nationals extend Span a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
No: 57%. Yes: 43%.

Will Span accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 59%. Yes: 41%.

 

#26 J.A. Happ (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
32 172.0 7.90 2.35 41.6 % 3.61 3.41 3.69 3.2 3.3

Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $11 million
Total: $33 million

Average Years: 2.8
Average AAV: $11.0 million
Total: $30.6 million

 

#27 Brett Anderson (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
27 180.1 5.79 2.30 66.3 % 3.69 3.94 3.51 1.9 1.7

Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $11 million
Total: $33 million

Average Years: 2.7
Average AAV: $11.1 million
Total: $30.1 million

Will the Dodgers extend Anderson a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
No: 54%. Yes: 46%.

Will Anderson accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 52%. Yes: 48%.

 

#28 John Lackey (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
36 218.0 7.22 2.19 46.0 % 2.77 3.57 3.77 5.9 3.6

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $15 million
Total: $30 million

Average Years: 2.4
Average AAV: $14.9 million
Total: $35.0 million

Will the Cardinals extend Lackey a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 85%. No: 15%.

Will Lackey accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 80%. Yes: 20%.

 

#29 Austin Jackson (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
28 527 5.5 % 23.9 % .267 .311 .385 .305 94 -3.4 8.3 2.3

Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $10 million
Total: $30 million

Average Years: 2.8
Average AAV: $9.9 million
Total: $27.3 million

 

#30 Asdrubal Cabrera (SS)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
29 551 6.5 % 19.4 % .265 .315 .430 .319 104 3.3 -0.5 2.2

Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $9 million
Total: $27 million

Average Years: 2.7
Average AAV: $9.6 million
Total: $25.9 million

 

#31 Gerardo Parra (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
28 589 4.8 % 15.6 % .291 .328 .452 .334 108 7.4 -22.1 0.4

Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $8 million
Total: $24 million

Average Years: 3.0
Average AAV: $9.1 million
Total: $27.1 million

 

#32 Mat Latos (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
27 116.1 7.74 2.48 43.9 % 4.95 3.72 3.69 -0.1 1.5

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $11 million
Total: $22 million

Average Years: 2.2
Average AAV: $10.3 million
Total: $22.2 million

 

#33 Darren O’Day (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
32 65.1 11.30 1.93 35.1 % 1.52 2.49 3.05 2.7 1.8

Median Years: 3
Median AAV: $7 million
Total: $21 million

Average Years: 2.8
Average AAV: $7.5 million
Total: $20.8 million

 

#34 Doug Fister (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
31 103.0 5.50 2.10 44.6 % 4.19 4.55 4.46 0.2 0.2

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $10 million
Total: $20 million

Average Years: 2.0
Average AAV: $10.5 million
Total: $20.9 million

Will the Nationals extend Fister a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
No: 90%. Yes: 10%.

Will Fister accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
Yes: 74%. No: 26%.

What percentage of Fister’s appearances in 2016 will come in a starting capacity?
Median answer (selected from range of 0%-100% by 10% increments): 90%.

 

#35 R.A. Dickey (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
40 214.1 5.29 2.56 41.9 % 3.91 4.48 4.72 3.6 2.0

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $10 million
Total: $20 million

Average Years: 1.6
Average AAV: $10.6 million
Total: $17.0 million

The Blue Jays hold a $12.0M option on Dickey’s contract ($1.0M buyout). Will they exercise it?
Yes: 77%. No: 23%.

 

#36 David Freese (3B)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
32 470 6.6 % 22.8 % .257 .323 .420 .325 110 4.4 1.2 2.2

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $9 million
Total: $18 million

Average Years: 2.5
Average AAV: $9.5 million
Total: $23.8 million

 

#37 Mike Napoli (C/1B)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
33 469 12.2 % 25.2 % .224 .324 .410 .321 98 -3.8 -5.4 0.7

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $9 million
Total: $18 million

Average Years: 1.8
Average AAV: $9.1 million
Total: $16.2 million

 

#38 Mike Pelfrey (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
31 164.2 4.70 2.46 51.0 % 4.26 4.00 4.45 1.5 2.0

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $8 million
Total: $16 million

Average Years: 2.1
Average AAV: $8.1 million
Total: $16.9 million

 

#39 Alexei Ramirez (SS)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
33 622 5.0 % 10.9 % .249 .285 .357 .279 72 -25.3 0.4 -0.5

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $8 million
Total: $16 million

Average Years: 2.0
Average AAV: $8.2 million
Total: $16.2 million

The White Sox hold a $10.0M option on Ramirez’ contract ($1.0M buyout). Will they exercise it?
Yes: 54%. No: 46%.

 

#40 Juan Uribe (3B/SS)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
36 397 8.6 % 20.2 % .253 .320 .417 .319 104 2.7 2.6 1.9

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $8 million
Total: $16 million

Average Years: 1.6
Average AAV: $7.8 million
Total: $12.7 million

 

#41 Joakim Soria (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
31 67.2 8.51 2.53 42.3 % 2.53 3.71 3.57 1.9 0.4

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $7 million
Total: $14 million

Average Years: 2.3
Average AAV: $7.4 million
Total: $16.9 million

 

#42 Nori Aoki (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
33 392 7.7 % 6.4 % .287 .353 .380 .326 112 2.1 -0.5 1.5

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $7 million
Total: $14 million

Average Years: 2.1
Average AAV: $7.6 million
Total: $15.7 million

The Giants hold a $5.5M option on Aoki’s contract ($0.7M buyout). Will they exercise it?
Yes: 96%. No: 4%.

 

#43 Alex Avila (C)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
28 219 18.3 % 30.1 % .191 .339 .287 .294 82 -5.8 1.8 0.3

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $12 million

Average Years: 2.2
Average AAV: $7.3 million
Total: $16.1 million

 

#44 Chris Iannetta (C)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
32 317 12.9 % 26.2 % .188 .293 .335 .281 80 -11.0 5.4 0.5

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $12 million

Average Years: 2.0
Average AAV: $7.2 million
Total: $14.2 million

 

#45 Steve Pearce (1B/OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
32 325 7.1 % 21.2 % .218 .289 .422 .308 91 -3.5 -3.9 0.3

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $12 million

Average Years: 2.0
Average AAV: $7.1 million
Total: $13.8 million

 

#46 Will Venable (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
32 390 9.5 % 24.1 % .244 .320 .350 .296 87 -1.4 0.4 1.2

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $12 million

Average Years: 1.9
Average AAV: $6.7 million
Total: $13.0 million

 

#47 Chris Young (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
31 356 8.4 % 20.5 % .252 .320 .453 .332 109 3.6 -4.3 1.2

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $12 million

Average Years: 1.9
Average AAV: $6.6 million
Total: $12.3 million

 

#48 John Jaso (C/DH)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
31 216 13.0 % 18.1 % .286 .380 .459 .364 136 4.4 -5.3 0.7

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $12 million

Average Years: 1.8
Average AAV: $5.9 million
Total: $10.9 million

 

#49 Dioner Navarro (C)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
31 192 8.9 % 15.1 % .246 .307 .374 .296 84 -5.1 3.6 0.5

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $12 million

Average Years: 1.8
Average AAV: $6.1 million
Total: $10.9 million

 

#50 Alejandro De Aza (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
31 365 8.5 % 23.0 % .262 .333 .422 .326 104 4.5 -4.9 1.2

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $12 million

Average Years: 1.7
Average AAV: $6.1 million
Total: $10.2 million

 

#51 Rajai Davis (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
34 370 5.9 % 20.5 % .258 .306 .440 .320 101 2.1 2.5 1.8

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $12 million

Average Years: 1.6
Average AAV: $5.9 million
Total: $9.4 million

 

#52 Mark Buehrle (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
36 198.2 4.12 1.49 45.9 % 3.81 4.26 4.46 2.3 2.1

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $10 million
Total: $10 million

Average Years: 1.4
Average AAV: $10.8 million
Total: $14.7 million

This offseason, Mark Buehrle will either retire or not retire. Which one, though?
Retire: 58%. Not Retire: 42%.

 

#53 Bartolo Colon (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
42 194.2 6.29 1.11 42.3 % 4.16 3.84 3.94 1.2 2.5

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $10 million
Total: $10 million

Average Years: 1.3
Average AAV: $9.8 million
Total: $13.1 million

This offseason, Bartolo Colon will either retire or not retire. Which one, though?
Not Retire: 83%. Retire: 17%

 

#54 Tony Sipp (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
31 54.1 10.27 2.48 38.8 % 1.99 2.93 3.34 1.7 1.0

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $5 million
Total: $10 million

Average Years: 2.0
Average AAV: $4.9 million
Total: $9.9 million

 

#55 J.P. Howell (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
32 44.0 7.98 2.86 60.3 % 1.43 3.34 3.53 1.5 0.3

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $5 million
Total: $10 million

Average Years: 1.8
Average AAV: $4.9 million
Total: $8.8 million

 

#56 Tommy Hunter (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
28 60.1 7.01 2.09 44.9 % 4.18 3.83 3.89 0.2 0.3

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $5 million
Total: $10 million

Average Years: 1.9
Average AAV: $4.7 million
Total: $8.8 million

 

#57 Bud Norris (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
30 83.0 7.70 3.36 43.4 % 6.72 5.04 4.29 -1.7 0.0

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $9 million

Average Years: 1.7
Average AAV: $6.4 million
Total: $10.6 million

Will Norris make the majority of his 2016 appearances in a starting or relief capacity?
Starting: 60%. Relief: 40%.

 

#58 Chase Utley (2B)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
36 423 7.6 % 15.1 % .212 .286 .343 .274 71 -13.0 -0.3 0.0

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $8 million
Total: $8 million

Average Years: 1.4
Average AAV: $7.5 million
Total: $10.2 million

The Dodgers appear to hold an $11.0M option ($2.0M buyout) on Utley’s 2016 season. Will they exercise it?
No: 80%. Yes: 20%.

 

#59 Antonio Bastardo (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
29 57.1 10.05 4.08 31.0 % 2.98 3.33 4.27 0.8 0.6

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $4 million
Total: $8 million

Average Years: 2.0
Average AAV: $4.6 million
Total: $9.4 million

 

#60 Shawn Kelley (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
31 51.1 11.05 2.63 42.7 % 2.45 2.57 2.91 0.6 1.0

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $4 million
Total: $8 million

Average Years: 2.0
Average AAV: $4.5 million
Total: $9.0 million

 

#61 Jimmy Rollins (SS)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
36 563 7.8 % 15.3 % .224 .285 .358 .283 80 -15.2 -0.3 0.2

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $8 million
Total: $8 million

Average Years: 1.2
Average AAV: $7.4 million
Total: $8.8 million

Rather than playing at all, do you think Rollins will retire this offseason?
No: 67%. Yes: 33%.

 

#62 Mark Lowe (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
32 55.0 9.98 1.96 40.3 % 1.96 2.57 2.83 1.6 1.2

Median Years: 2
Median AAV: $4 million
Total: $8 million

Average Years: 1.7
Average AAV: $4.4 million
Total: $7.3 million

 

#63 Justin Morneau (1B)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
34 182 7.1 % 13.7 % .310 .363 .458 .353 107 2.4 -3.7 0.5

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $7 million
Total: $7 million

Average Years: 1.5
Average AAV: $7.3 million
Total: $10.7 million

 

#64 Alfredo Simon (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
34 187.0 5.63 3.27 43.6 % 5.05 4.77 4.78 0.4 1.0

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $7 million
Total: $7 million

Average Years: 1.5
Average AAV: $6.9 million
Total: $10.6 million

 

#65 Marlon Byrd (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
37 544 5.3 % 26.7 % .247 .290 .453 .317 100 0.3 -7.8 1.0

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $7 million
Total: $7 million

Average Years: 1.4
Average AAV: $7.2 million
Total: $9.8 million

The Giants hold a $8.0M option on Byrd’s contract. Will they exercise it?
No: 59%. Yes: 41%.

 

#66 Shane Victorino (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
34 204 7.8 % 15.7 % .230 .308 .292 .271 68 -5.6 -0.9 0.0

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $7 million
Total: $7 million

Average Years: 1.3
Average AAV: $6.7 million
Total: $8.9 million

 

#67 Rich Hill (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
35 29.0 11.17 1.55 48.4 % 1.55 2.27 2.50 1.6 1.1

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $6 million

Average Years: 1.5
Average AAV: $6.5 million
Total: $9.9 million

Given the paucity of information regarding Hill but also the quality of his late-season run, his is the most compelling/least predictable free-agent case of the offseason.
True: 53%. False: 47%.

 

#68 Tim Lincecum (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
31 76.1 7.07 4.48 44.3 % 4.13 4.29 4.64 0.4 0.3

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $6 million

Average Years: 1.4
Average AAV: $7.0 million
Total: $9.9 million

Will Lincecum, who’s returning from season-ending surgery on his hip labrum, re-sign with the San Francisco?
Yes: 61%. No: 39%.

 

#69 Chris Young (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
36 123.1 6.06 3.14 25.5 % 3.06 4.52 5.33 3.0 0.9

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $6 million

Average Years: 1.3
Average AAV: $5.9 million
Total: $7.9 million

 

#70 Alex Rios (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
34 411 3.6 % 16.3 % .255 .287 .353 .279 72 -11.8 -0.2 0.2

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $6 million
Total: $6 million

Average Years: 1.2
Average AAV: $6.2 million
Total: $7.7 million

 

#71 Trevor Cahill (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
27 43.1 7.48 3.32 63.1 % 5.40 3.92 3.50 -0.3 0.1

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $5 million
Total: $5 million

Average Years: 1.6
Average AAV: $5.2 million
Total: $8.4 million

The Cubs hold a $13.0M option on Cahill’s contract ($0.3M buyout). Will they exercise it?
No: 100%. Yes: 0%.

 

#72 Ryan Madson (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
34 63.1 8.24 1.99 55.0 % 2.13 3.09 3.32 1.9 0.9

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $5 million
Total: $5 million

Average Years: 1.5
Average AAV: $5.5 million
Total: $8.1 million

 

#73 Jonathan Broxton (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
31 60.1 9.40 3.28 52.8 % 4.62 3.65 3.24 -0.2 0.3

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $4 million
Total: $4 million

Average Years: 1.5
Average AAV: $4.5 million
Total: $6.6 million

Broxton’s contract features a mutual option for $9.0M in 2016 ($2.0M buyout). Will Broxton exercise his half of the deal? 
Yes: 94%. No: 6%.

Will the Cardinals exercise theirs?
No: 97%. Yes: 3%. 

 

#74 David Murphy (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
33 391 5.1 % 12.5 % .283 .318 .421 .318 103 -0.1 -9.8 0.3

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $4 million
Total: $4 million

Average Years: 1.4
Average AAV: $4.6 million
Total: $6.4 million

The Angels hold a $7.0M option on Murphy’s contract ($0.5M buyout). Will they exercise it?
No: 85%. Yes: 15%.

Murphy has averaged precisely 0.0 WAR over the last three seasons. Would you consider him the “quintessential replacement-level player”?
Yes: 55%. No: 45%.

 

#75 Geovany Soto (C)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
32 210 10.0 % 30.0 % .219 .301 .406 .311 94 -1.2 4.9 1.1

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $4 million
Total: $4 million

Average Years: 1.4
Average AAV: $4.4 million
Total: $6.3 million

 

#76 Matt Joyce (OF)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
30 284 10.6 % 23.6 % .174 .272 .291 .255 62 -14.5 -7.8 -1.4

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $4 million
Total: $4 million

Average Years: 1.2
Average AAV: $4.2 million
Total: $5.3 million

 

#77 Brandon Morrow (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
30 33.0 6.27 1.91 47.4 % 2.73 3.56 3.72 0.9 0.5

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $4 million
Total: $4 million

Average Years: 1.3
Average AAV: $4.2 million
Total: $5.3 million

Morrow failed to pitch even 55 innings for the third consecutive year. Will the majority of his 2016 appearances be recorded in a starting or relief capacity? 
Relief: 69%. Starting: 31%.

 

#78 Jeremy Guthrie (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
36 148.1 5.10 2.67 34.4 % 5.95 5.62 5.11 -1.0 -0.9

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $4 million
Total: $4 million

Average Years: 1.2 
Average AAV: $4.3 million
Total: $5.0 million

Guthrie’s contract features a $10M mutual option (with $3.2M buyout) for 2016. Will he exercise his portion of that option? 
Yes: 95%. No: 5%. 

Will the Royals exercise their portion? 
No: 92%. Yes: 8%.

 

#79 Stephen Drew (SS)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
32 428 8.6 % 16.6 % .201 .271 .381 .284 76 -14.0 1.5 0.2

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $4 million
Total: $4 million

Average Years: 1.2
Average AAV: $4.2 million
Total: $5.0 million

 

#80 Joe Blanton (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
34 76.0 9.36 1.89 48.6 % 2.84 2.92 3.01 1.2 1.1

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $4 million
Total: $4 million

Average Years: 1.2
Average AAV: $3.7 million
Total: $4.5 million

 

#81 Kelly Johnson (2B)


Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR
33 335 6.9 % 24.2 % .265 .314 .435 .323 107 1.9 -9.9 0.3

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $3 million
Total: $3 million

Average Years: 1.2
Average AAV: $3.3 million
Total: $4.1 million

 

#82 Kyle Kendrick (P)


Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR
30 142.1 5.06 2.85 38.8 % 6.32 6.12 5.09 -0.5 -1.0

Median Years: 1
Median AAV: $3 million
Total: $3 million

Average Years: 1.1
Average AAV: $3.3 million
Total: $3.8 million

If there had been an option above for “minor league deal,” would you have selected that instead? 
Yes: 61%. No: 39%.



Print This Post



Carson Cistulli has just published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.


Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
TKDC
Guest
TKDC
6 months 25 days ago

I think the author is Juan Uribe’s agent, or else I have to wonder why a guy is listed as a “3B/SS” when he’s played 5 games at short since 2010.

Opie Curious
Guest
Opie Curious
6 months 25 days ago

Alex Gordon (3B/OF) is a similar grace note. In 2011 he played at first base in seven games. Otherwise, he has played only left field since 2010 (and even then, only eleven corner infield games). And his early career at third was kind of a disaster, so I don’t think anyone’s going to be jumping at the chance to move him back there.

Larry Bernandez
Guest
Larry Bernandez
6 months 25 days ago

Bummer. I was really hoping for a post showing the top 86 free agents.

Jason
Guest
Jason
6 months 25 days ago

And I for the top 79. Sadly, we are both disappointed.

DJL
Guest
DJL
6 months 24 days ago

Why no 82 page slide show? I’m bummed.

baseballfan123
Guest
baseballfan123
6 months 25 days ago

I guess the average fan does not understand how qualifying offers work. There is NO way the Mets would NOT extend a QO to Murphy; just like there is NO way he would accept it

vivalajeter
Guest
vivalajeter
6 months 25 days ago

Weren’t there serious questions a few weeks ago (before his post-season HR barrage) about whether he would be offered a QO? It didn’t seem like a guarantee.

What I want to know is who are the 2% that think Heyward won’t be offered one, or that he would actually accept it?

Tramps Like Us
Guest
Tramps Like Us
6 months 24 days ago

Those 2%? They’re the ones who think the moon landing was staged. And the pyramids were used to store grain.

Umberto
Guest
Umberto
6 months 25 days ago

Despite his nice DS/CS performance, Murphy’s a pretty borderline candidate. Stephen Drew’s 3.4-WAR 2013 performance earned him a QO followed by difficulty in obtaining employment. They are, of course, different types of players; though Mr. Drew’s 2013 was better than Mr. Murphy’s 2015, the latter has been more consistent in the recent past and derives more value from skills teams are willing to pay for.

Considering no one has yet to accept a QO, I wouldn’t put money on anyone being the first. But I don’t know that it should be an obvious choice on Murphy’s part. After all, the Mets (presumably) won’t be on the market to repeat the Cuddyer debacle with another questionable draft pick burn.

M W
Guest
M W
6 months 25 days ago

Murphy would have no problem finding a contract attached to a QO, even before his postseason performance.

Dooduh
Guest
Dooduh
6 months 25 days ago

As for how the Mets reach a decision about whether to make a qualifying offer, Alderson said: “Take it out of the Murphy context. I think you have to start with whether you want the player back. If you decide the answer is yes, then it’s easy to make a qualifying offer. If you decide no, then you get to the question of, for gamesmanship purposes, whether making a qualifying offer is a good idea. Murph has been a great player for us over the years. He’s been a Met over his entire career. So we’re going to make that decision a little later this week.”

Josh
Guest
Josh
6 months 25 days ago

Great stuff Carson! One thing, could you add a column to the spreadsheet with the number of votes each player received? I think that would be really interesting to look at.

Chris Young
Guest
Chris Young
6 months 25 days ago

(looks at ranking)

(nods head) Nice

bmarkham
Guest
bmarkham
6 months 25 days ago

I’m surprised you were that high really. You signed for $700,000 last year, I could see you gettng a raise but close to 1,000% seems higher than I would have thought.

I’m hoping my Cardinals make you their long reliever until the inevitable injury occurs.

Chris Young
Guest
Chris Young
6 months 24 days ago

That’s long TALL reliever to you, Bub.

VandelayIndustries
Member
VandelayIndustries
6 months 25 days ago

Zobrist prediction seems low.

Brent Henry
Member
Brent Henry
6 months 25 days ago

Zobrist 3/42 seems low considering half the league wants his services.

Bip
Member
Member
Bip
6 months 25 days ago

I guess we see Zobrist as our little treasure – no one knows how great he is except us.

The fangraphs crowd would all pitch in to offer him at least 4/64.

Bill
Guest
Bill
6 months 24 days ago

Considering even the backwards Royals saw him as a worthwhile pickup, I’m sure every team sees his value now. Of course, the Royals meant to ask for Ike Davis but a monkey spilled ink on the offer sheet in such a way as to change the name to Ben Zobrist. A crazy coincidence for sure, but considering the same thing happened on an earlier trade when Kyle Farnsworth was changed to Wade Davis, it can’t be that unusual.

hobbes020
Member
hobbes020
6 months 25 days ago

If there’s a way to see how many votes were cast for each player that would be wonderful information to have? (unless I’m missing it somewhere)

MjwW
Guest
MjwW
6 months 25 days ago

This isn’t meant as a criticism, but this could have been formated better.

Dan
Guest
Dan
6 months 25 days ago

What is it meant as?

troybruno
Member
Member
troybruno
6 months 24 days ago

Possibilities for what it *might* have been meant as:

1. a casual insult
2. evidence that MjwW “likes” Carson and is a 5th grade boy
3. 1st in a long list of “what this could have been,” coming right before “a meatball sub”
4. a waste of our time from an idiot

Brian
Guest
Brian
6 months 25 days ago

Sure it is.

But that’s also ok.

Dan
Guest
Dan
6 months 25 days ago

Yes, I should have added that, too. Nothing wrong with criticism.

Umberto
Guest
Umberto
6 months 25 days ago

Mm…formating.

Only GLove, No Love
Guest
Only GLove, No Love
6 months 25 days ago

This isn’t meant as a criticism, but you could grow some balls.

Dr. Evil
Guest
Dr. Evil
6 months 25 days ago

David Price will sign for $1 million.

ScreechOwl
Guest
ScreechOwl
6 months 25 days ago

Are you talking about getting his autograph?

Well-Beered Englishman
Guest
6 months 25 days ago

might wanna check that commenter’s username

Brent Henry
Member
Brent Henry
6 months 25 days ago

Theres the idea out there that Heyward may want to test the market again when he’s ~32. I wonder if some people factored that in to their vote. Everything I’ve read says he’s almost certainly getting more than 8 years with an opt out clause.

Merkle's Boner Pill
Guest
Merkle's Boner Pill
6 months 24 days ago

I can’t see St. Louis giving Heyward (or anyone) the leverage of an opt-out. As an organization, they’re almost fanatical about meticulously mapping their budgets in both three and five-year plans. An opt-out is far too large of an uncontrolled variable.

Prediction! Cardinals will in fact sign him for 9/200 guaranteed, shaped as 14-16-18-22-24-26-26-27-27, with $3M deferred per year over each of the final six years of the deal. Also, two or three club options at roughly $22-24M apiece. Great player, great guy, someone the team would like to make a Redbird-for-remainder-of-his-life.

Kevin
Guest
Kevin
6 months 23 days ago

That could happen, for sure.

Or, you know, one of the other 29 teams in baseball might be content to give him a contract he’d rather sign. As it turns out, just because he has played for the Cardinals doesn’t mean he will always play for the Cardinals.

Not sure if you know, but there’s an American League team that plays in a joke of a stadium where LHH can hit home runs pretty easily. And that team both has a bunch of money and a history of signing players to contracts that include opt-outs. Not saying they’ll sign him, but they’re one of many who could.

jon
Guest
jon
6 months 25 days ago

Over/Under 75 of these players get a contract who’s total value is higher than the median projected here.

burgh_fan
Member
burgh_fan
6 months 25 days ago

It will be under. To get under 75 that’s only 8 players. I would be shocked if none of these guys retired or ended up taking minor league deals and that right there would already cut into that list.

I also suspect a pitcher(s) like Fister will strongly consider a 1 year deal over a 2 so he can enter the weak market next year.

Those things right there I think will probably account for at least 5 players not getting a contract with a higher value. Of the rest I think there are at least 3 players up there who will get their projected amount or less.

I think something like an O/U of 65 or 70 would be better.

jon
Guest
jon
6 months 25 days ago

I probably should have phrased it in reverse: over under 8 players get a deal worth less than the average posted. Obviously a bunch of these guys have weird circumstances attached like options and whatnot, like you mentioned.

But in general, do we ever over-estimate contracts here?

Brent Henry
Member
Brent Henry
6 months 25 days ago

It’s a sick sick world we live in where Jeremy Guthrie is anticipated to earn $4m next year and little kids are out there starving.

Blerick
Member
6 months 25 days ago

You mean, $10m

Umberto
Guest
Umberto
6 months 25 days ago

I see your point, but Jeremy Guthrie’s employer’s ability to pay him that much — and still turn a healthy profit and see massive ROI — makes me far more ill vis-a-vis child hunger.

Reality
Guest
Reality
6 months 25 days ago

Good news is that instead of feeling sick next time you want to watch a baseball game for 3 hours you can go volunteer at your local homeless shelter or charity organization. Do recognize that the professional athlete can get paid millions of dollars because you selfishly decide to watch sports for your own entertainment rather than help those in need. Makes me sick to think that while there are over a billion people starving out in the world and you still find the peace of mind to spend time reading baseball messaging boards and watch sports.

Umberto
Guest
Umberto
6 months 25 days ago

One’s choice of how one spends his or her time — which could, naturally, include allotting equal amounts of time to recreational and charitable pursuits (or further still, establishing a career toward charitable ends) — has little impact on the structural problems of the human society on this earth. We are not resolving food distribution issues in developing countries by logging ten hours a week at the neighborhood soup kitchen, nor through two years in Kenya in the Peace Corps (alas). Whether this is the correct venue for Mr. Henry’s malaise (or my somewhat pedantic but, I hope, labor-friendly nitpicking), watching baseball games or reading this site — perhaps done as short distractions while working toward the very ends you put forth — are not likely the difference between a world of great wealth and nutrition access equality and the one we live in today.

Ebenezer
Member
Member
Ebenezer
6 months 25 days ago

If cable subscribers had the ability to purchase only the channels they wanted (a la carte), then you might be correct. However, the vast majority of cable subscribers don’t watch ESPN or their local sports cable network, but they’re forced to pay for it as part of their cable subscription. (There’s been substantial coverage by Fangraphs on this, and how much cable sports network deals contribute to overall MLB team revenues.)

Unless you’re suggesting people stop subscribing to cable altogether, and stop attending MLB games.

Reality
Guest
Reality
6 months 25 days ago

So your argument is that you volunteering 10 hours a week wouldn’t solve world hunger or any other epistemic societal issue but somehow reallocating Jeremy Guthrie’s million dollar salary would be the final million out of 10’s of billions that finally ends it all. Sure.

jfree
Member
jfree
6 months 24 days ago

One should always finish reading everything on baseball message boards and then send the leftovers to starving children in Ethiopia

Bill
Guest
Bill
6 months 24 days ago

Be heartened! The venerable Jeremy Guthrie gives abundantly to charity! So, your dollars and the dollars of oh so many other fans will work their way to the hands of the starving children, provided, of course, the corrupt monkey leaders of their respective countries do not first steal said dollars, which will almost certainly happen… Poor kids.

Shirtless George Brett
Guest
Shirtless George Brett
6 months 25 days ago

Didnt Buehrle already retire?

Shirtless Bartolo Colon
Guest
Shirtless Bartolo Colon
6 months 25 days ago

He probably should. Getting up there in age.

Pantsless Tommy Lasorda
Guest
Pantsless Tommy Lasorda
6 months 25 days ago

You guys should really wear shirts.

Shirtless George Brett
Guest
Shirtless George Brett
6 months 25 days ago

I’m constantly covered in BBQ sauce and pine tar. Shirts are a waste.

Seriously though, I’m pretty sure Buerhle said he was done after the last game of the season.

Ullu Ka Patta
Guest
Ullu Ka Patta
6 months 25 days ago

Will the Cardinals extend Heyward a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?
Yes: 98%. No: 2%.

Will Heyward accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 98%. Yes: 2%.

I think from these data points we can conclude that roughly 2% of Fangraphs readership either doesn’t know what they’re talking about or are just trying to screw with the poll results.

Bip
Member
Member
Bip
6 months 25 days ago

I charitably assumed that those 2% thought that the Cards would sign Heyward to a long contract before the QO comes into play.

Bip
Member
Member
Bip
6 months 25 days ago

EDIT: I just realized that, though my previous comment may explain the 2% who think they don’t give him a QO, it certainly cannot explain anyone thinking he accepts a QO if offered one.

Maybe I’m one of the 2% ???????

Hurtlocker
Guest
Hurtlocker
6 months 25 days ago

Seems the players over 50 on this list are the “scrap heap”, with Drew the king of the acrap.

NotAnotherPun
Guest
NotAnotherPun
6 months 25 days ago

The Jeff Samardzija portion gave me the humor I needed to start my day

someone
Guest
someone
6 months 25 days ago

Much like Jaime Garcia, Dickey’s option was already exercised

Mr. Freeze
Guest
Mr. Freeze
6 months 25 days ago

I for one would love to see David Freese offered a 2.5 year contract, how fun would that be?

J
Guest
J
6 months 25 days ago

It seems like we’ve underestimated the middle tier of starting pitchers even more than the top. Decent but unremarkable pitchers like Mike Leake and Jeff Samardzija will probably be asking for at least the 4/82 contract that decent but unremarkable Rick Porcello has, right?

Merkle's Boner Pill
Guest
Merkle's Boner Pill
6 months 24 days ago

Ahhh, but you can’t use Ben Cherington’s idiocy as a standard for other GM’s. When it comes to bad contracts, Cherington is (was) the Brian Sabean of the Junior Circuit.

Biscuit
Guest
Biscuit
6 months 25 days ago

Dave Cameron mentioned in his chat that these lists tend to always come in a bit lower than the actual signing, mainly due to that fact that this reflects the median of a wide range of values while the actual player signs for the highest bid. It wouldn’t make sense to use the “Fans” highest bid, because those are probably very unrealistic outliers. But I bet there is a upper percentile, say 85th or something, that better approximates the actual signing value. To that end, I bet you could use the data from years past to “calibrate” the fan data so that you report the percentile that offers the highest correlation.

Or you could do none of this because it just an arbitrary exercise, I suppose.

TKDC
Guest
TKDC
6 months 25 days ago

Yeah, I try to consciously ratchet up my predictions to account for this. It’s silly to be surprised every year that so many guys got so much money.

Dooduh
Guest
Dooduh
6 months 25 days ago

oh I think this is a false narrative. there are plenty of players who struggle to get what the projections indicated.

and I also think that Cameron theory is flawed also. People are estimating what the high bids will be (what the player signs for assumes it’s the high bid). The question isn’t what do you think average offers for x player will be.

Only GLove, No Love
Guest
Only GLove, No Love
6 months 25 days ago

Impossible. This theory and his obsession with sequencing will both stand the test of time. They are not overly simplistic or based on a lack of familiarity with the underlying processes.

Roger
Guest
Roger
6 months 25 days ago

But how often do the fans properly account for inflation, player evaluation, strengths and weaknesses in the market, etc.?

I wonder if there are trends about what kinds of players the fans underestimate vs overestimate.

Atreyu Jones
Guest
Atreyu Jones
6 months 25 days ago

I think there are trends (but I don’t really have anything to back it up). I think the fans’ sometimes underestimate the superstar deals, but over-estimate what some of the low-tier free agents will get.

troybruno
Member
Member
troybruno
6 months 24 days ago

well, the good news is that we’ll have an answer to this in a few mos and can go back and look at prior years… sooooo….

Erik
Guest
Erik
6 months 24 days ago

You have to figure that there is more than one team who is interested in signing a player because they anticipate that their final price will fall within an acceptable range. Ultimately that price moves beyond the acceptable range of all but one of the teams interested.

With 30 teams I think you could take the median of contracts above the 93rd percentile. This would scale the fan votes to mirror an average of the top two teams bidding on a player.

TKDC
Guest
TKDC
6 months 25 days ago

Considering the Giants pretty blatantly reduced Byrd’s plate appearances to ensure the option wasn’t automatic, it’s odd that a full 41% think they will pick it up anyway.

Ebenezer
Member
Member
Ebenezer
6 months 25 days ago

That’s ridiculous. The Giants played Byrd regularly until they were eliminated (with only five games remaining), even though they were out of the race in early September (following a seven-game losing streak). While I like Byrd, it would have been much more beneficial for The Giants to play Jarrett Parker and other young outfielders to see how they’d do in the majors.

TKDC
Guest
TKDC
6 months 24 days ago

Ok, my phrasing might have been a little off. But if the option had (stupidly) been the opposite, that it vested if Byrd didn’t get 550 plate appearances, do you really think the Giants would have acted the same?

Also, they declined the option, for what that’s worth.

Here is the article I was basing my comment on: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/09/marlon-byrd-option-wont-vest-giants.html

Perardo Garra
Guest
Perardo Garra
6 months 25 days ago

I didn’t pay much attention to him this season, but I’m kind of surprised to see how poor Gerardo Parra’s defensive numbers are. I always thought of him as a defensive first player. Is there a reason they’re so bad or is it just the inaccuracy of defensive stats?

Rerardo Rarra
Guest
Rerardo Rarra
6 months 25 days ago

He had a sub par year and the stats are inaccurate. But he was better than the stats say.

Only GLove, No Love
Guest
Only GLove, No Love
6 months 25 days ago

It looks like he had some bad luck on the plays categorized as “unlikely”. He still makes the remote plays at a solid clip though so make of that what you will as to overall skill. I make out that he is still really really good.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/7/23/9019421/gerardo-parra-brewers-defense-mlb-trade-deadline

fwuekhe
Guest
fwuekhe
6 months 25 days ago

So as usual we’re low on a lot of these. But I think that the Heyward estimate is unrealistic and a reflection of the site this survey was taken on. There’s no way a corner outfielder whose most notable skill is his defense gets that contract. Not saying that he wouldn’t be worth it, just that he won’t get it. Someone is going to get a massive bargain on Heyward.

David the non-robot
Guest
David the non-robot
6 months 25 days ago

In the 2024 baseball season, the median team payroll will likely be somewhere on the order of $220M unless the next national television contract takes a massive step backward, and the FA market rate of WAR will be (perhaps significantly) north of $12M. Betting on 1.7 WAR from 33-year-old Jason Hayward in 2024 is probably one of the safer bets you could make in this year’s FA class.

Only Glove, No Love
Guest
Only Glove, No Love
6 months 25 days ago

Spot on. I think this is exactly the right analysis. And it only takes two smart (to me!) GMs to send the price up to that point. Personally, I think that is low and he gets +190 for 10 with an opt out. The opt out is based on his agents track record obv.

I just hope MOZ pays the freight.

I am betting even the Votto contract is unremarkable by the end.

bmarkham
Guest
bmarkham
6 months 25 days ago

I’m not so sure about that. Smart people are running the big money clubs now, and while the Yankees aren’t generally thought of as having a smart FO they have shown that they value defense (Ellsbury, Gardner, Headley, Ryan). Word is the Tigers owner is high on him as well.

The Yankees, Dodgers (Friedman), Cubs (Epstein), and Tigers could all be in on Heyward, which could make him expensive quick.

bmarkham
Guest
bmarkham
6 months 25 days ago

I will be absolutely thrilled if the Cardinals can get Heyward for $184/8.

Rick Hahn
Guest
Rick Hahn
6 months 24 days ago

If Jeff Samardzija gets 4 years, I’ll cut off my dick.

Dave
Guest
Dave
6 months 24 days ago

Twist, Rick Hahn is female.

Orsulakfan
Guest
Orsulakfan
6 months 24 days ago

These all seem too low to me… are there a bunch of GMs secretly logging on here to skew the numbers?

jon
Guest
jon
6 months 24 days ago

Well I guess there is the first big shock… 96% said the Giants would exercise Aoki’s 5.5 million extension, but they actually let him walk. Given the buyout, that means they pegged his value under 1 year/$4.8 million (!)

Josh
Guest
Josh
6 months 24 days ago

It means they didn’t want him on the team next year at that price. It is less a commentary on his value but rather a reflection of his value to their specific team. These decisions are made with context. Perhaps they need the payroll flexibility for another part of the roster and/or they have a replacement ready or some other plan to alter the composition of their roster.

Brian Mangan
Guest
6 months 24 days ago

Last year’s list was closer than 2013’s list, but still noticeably under. If they were right on years, they were under by 15%-25% on overall value. I’d expect a similar markup this year.

From last year’s list:

Scherzer Crowd 6.5/153
Scherzer Actual 7/210

Lester Crowd 6/128
Lester Actual 6/155

Hanley Crowd 5/87
Hanley Actual 4/88 (+22m vesting)

Shields Crowd 4.7/86
Shields Actual 4/75 (+16m club opt)

Sandoval Crowd 5/79
Sandoval Actual 5/95 (+17m club opt)

From 2013’s list:

Cano Crowd 8/196
Cano Actual 10/240

Ellsbury Crowd 6/112
Ellsbury Actual 7/153 (+21m club opt)

Choo Crowd 5/80
Choo Actual 7/130

McCann Crowd 4/59
McCann Actual 5/85

Garza Crowd 4/59
Garza Actual 4/50 (+13m vest)

wpDiscuz