FanGraphs Prospect Stock Watch – 05/23/2012
Xander Bogaerts, SS/3B, Boston Red Sox
Current Level: A+
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: 1st
Current Value: Star-in-the-making
Bogaerts lept into the hearts of prospect watchers (and diehard Boston fans) last season when he took the full-season South Atlantic League by storm and produced a wRC+ of 120 despite his relative lack of experience. Bogaerts, still just 19, is now leaving his impression on the high-A Carolina League. Although he’s currently hitting .278, Bogaerts’ power display is down from last year (.249 to .137 ISO) but he’s a better all-around hitter; his walk rate has increased more than 1% over last year and his strikeout rate has dropped almost 6% to 18.6%. He’s still playing at an above-average level for his league with a wRC+ of 117. The Aruba native’s ceiling remains huge and he’s eventually going to tap back into his above-average raw power.
Kole Calhoun, OF, Los Angeles Angels
Current Level: MLB
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: Sleeper
Current Value: Part-time Player
This former eighth round draft pick out of Arizona State has provided outstanding value for the organization. In less than three pro seasons Calhoun, 24, has reached the Major Leagues and he made his first appearance in the big leagues last night. Prior to his promotion, the hard-nosed outfielder was enjoying his time in the triple-A Pacific Coast League with 21 extra base hits and a .296 batting average. Along with some league-aided pop, Calhoun was showing off his speed with two triples and six steals in eight attempts. His walk rate has been down a bit this year at 8.5% (12.3% last year) but he also made a big jump from high-A ball to triple-A ball, skipping double-A entirely. With three outfielders on the 40-man roster out with significant injuries, Calhoun (and his left-handed bat) has a chance to prove himself as a worthy MLB contributor and could stick with the club even when veteran Torii Hunter is activated from the restricted list but his ultimate ceiling will likely be as a platoon or back-up player.
Sean Gilmartin, LHP, Atlanta Braves
Current Level: AA
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: 5th
Current Value: Overvalued
Gilmartin was the Braves’ first round draft pick in 2011, as well as the 28th overall selection so he has some expectations to carry around. The Florida State alum signed relatively quickly after being drafted so he was able to make six starts in the regular season, split between rookie ball and low-A. He then pitched another eight games in the Arizona Fall League and responded favorably. Aggressively assigned to double-A to begin 2012, Gilmartin has been solid but not flashy. His FIP and ERA are almost identical (3.49/3.38) and he’s provided 56.0 innings of work in nine starts (an average of more than 6.0 IP per start). The lefty has displayed outstanding control (1.77 BB/9) but his strikeout rate is low (5.79 K/9) and he’s inducing fewer ground-ball outs than I like to see from a pitch-to-contact guy. Gilmartin is looking like a third or fourth starter at the big league level, which is not what you want to hear from a prospect that was given more than $1.1 million and came at the expense of a first-round pick.
Chris Hermann, C, Minnesota Twins
Current Level: AA
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: NR
Current Value: Stock is Rising
Herrmann deserves some attention after scorching the ball over the last two games while going 8-for-9 with two doubles. He’s by far the best catching prospect in the Twins system and could be the heir apparent to Joe Mauer, once the veteran moves to another position in an effort to prolong his career. Herrmann played a number of positions in college and he remains versatile, but he’s only been catching full time for about three years. He moves well behind the plate and has a strong arm but his game calling still needs some work. The 24-year-old prospect makes good contact at the plate and should hit for a solid average but he’s an aggressive hitter (6.0 BB%) with limited power. Even so, left-handed hitting catchers with competent defensive skills are quite valuable. He’s about a year away from being big-league ready.
Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
Current Level: A+
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: 1st
Current Value: Static
Jungmann has gone about his first pro season with very little fanfare. The 12th overall pick in the 2011 draft, the former U of Texas hurler has produced a 2.90 ERA in 10 high-A starts. He’s also inducing a high number of ground-ball outs and low walk rates, which are encouraging signs from a 6’6” pitcher – as many taller hurlers tend to struggle with their control and have difficulties getting the ball down in the zone on a consistent basis. On the negative side, Jungmann hasn’t been striking many batters out (5.96 K/9) and his changeup has been slow to develop, as witnessed by his lefty/righty splits (.279 average vs LHB, .205 vs RHB). If he can find a way to miss more bats and polish up a third pitch Jungmann has the potential to be a No. 2 or 3 starter at the big league level.
“Gilmartin is looking like a third or fourth starter at the big league level, which is not what you want to hear from a prospect that was given more than $1.1 million and came at the expense of a first-round pick.”
This is not the sort of thing I would ever expect to hear from a “prospect expert.” If you land a guy who can make a meaningful contribution to your big league club at the end of the first round that’s a big win.
Backwards looking, sure. 28th pick who ends up being a number 3 starter for a period of years certainly isn’t a failure. But if people are already talking about a number 3 / 4 starter this early in his minor league career, with plenty of risk to get there, I don’t think that is worthy of his draft spot or bonus terms
There’s about as little risk with Gilmartin as you can find in a guy less than a year removed from being drafted (which is basically what Marc says anyway when he says he’s looking like a 3/4 starter, not a POTENTIAL 3/4 starter). Either way though, that’s really irrelevant as Marc’s position here is completely contradicted by what actually happens in the draft. Look at Mike Leake and Mike Minor, who both went in the top 10 despite everyone knowing that they were unlikely to ever be anything more than #3/#4 starters. It’s not easy to get one of those guys, so when you can find one you think can be ready within 2-3 years, it certainly makes sense to take them at the end of the first and pay them 1.1 MM. Look at the success rate of late first round draft picks. Quite a few of them never even manage to have the success at the AA level that Minor is already having. The only people who could possibly call his performance so far disappointing (especially in light of the fact he wasn’t even making top 100 lists anyway) are the ones who don’t actually understand how prospecting works.
Well to say I have no idea of how prospecting works is a bit harsh, don’t you think? I’ve been doing this for about 10 years. You and I can disagree about drafting approaches, or how to rank or analyze players.
In this case I personally advocate spending high draft picks on high-ceiling talent rather than taking the “safe approach.”
I certainly can’t say that Atlanta was completely wrong in their decision; it’s a wonderfully run organization; their choice just goes against what I would have done.
To be fair, I didn’t specifically say you have no idea how prospecting works. If you want to take my comments to imply you MAY not understand how prospecting works, then so be it. In general I like your articles, but your comments on Gilmartin make absolutely no sense here. Gilmartin wasn’t a top 100 prospect coming into the season, so I’m not sure how a solid performance in AA in his first full year of pro ball in anyway points to him being overrated. He was drafted 28th overall, so I’m not sure why you would consider that a high draft pick where you should be taking high-ceiling talent (especially considering high ceiling talent at that point tends to cost significantly more than slot and/or tends to be much. much riskier.
I’m definitely not a prospect expert, but I don’t understand the difference between Gilmartin and say the guy you write up two spots down. Jungmann comes out of the same class, but was drafted significantly higher (I think there’s a big difference in 16 spots in this case), and is pitching very similarly to Gilmartin (not a lot of Ks, but doing well). If he looks like a 2-3 and Gilmartin is a 3-4, I see these as being fairly even considering where each was drafted (especially since Gilmartin is currently pitching at a higher level).
If you have concerns about Gilmartin, I completely understand and again, I’m no expert, but based on your assessment I like the Braves ’11 pick. I just think it is odd to talk about how a guy has been pitching well, has been moved aggressively up the later, looks like a future MLB-quality starter, but is overvalued because he was drafted 28th overall and got $1.1 million. Those statements together seem off to me.
I agree Gilmartin shouldn’t be considered a huge disappointment, but a lot of teams like ceiling over how close they are to reaching it. For some teams, it could be a good pick, but the Braves have good depth at the major league and minor league levels and could have potentially gone with a higher ceiling pitcher.
Jungmann has a better fastball, better frame, and potential for a better breaking ball. He isn’t better right now, but his ceiling is higher.
I agree about Gilmartin. A high ceiling prospect like Mikie Mahtook fell to the Braves yet they didn’t pick him. Since the Braves really need position players (particularly outfielders) in their farm system this pick was even more baffling.
You mean the corner OF that’s a level lower than Gilmartin and struggling to hit for anything resembling acceptable power? There’s the sort of guy that should be talked about as disappointing this season.
I’m pretty sure that Atlanta drafted Gilmartin w/ precisely that type of future-profile in mind. If you assert otherwise, you must also believe that Atlanta’s internal projections of Gilmart were different from nearly every prospector report I’ve ever read on his potential/projection.
#3-4 starters, as they say ad nauseam, don’t grow on trees. At the 28th pick, I’d say that’s pretty good value.
Marc:
I understand your point, but the fact of the matter is the minor leagues are full of “high ceiling” guys who never sniff the big leagues. The other poster’s point was valid; even if Gilmartin only makes the big leagues as a 3 or 4 starter, it was a succesful draft pick.
I was all geared up to defend Gilmartin and didn’t have to. Thanks guys. Gilmartin was always a 3/4 type. His stock hasn’t really dropped at all since draft day. He is a high floor, extremely likely major leaguer. Atlanta called a “time-out” on that pick, which I didn’t even know existed until the draft last year, to get extra time. This led a lot of people to speculate Atlanta really wanted Robert Stephenson, who went the pick before to Cincinnati, who was a much higher ceiling pick than Gilmartin.