FanGraphs Staff Playoff Predictions
After Wednesday night’s madness finally set the playoff series, we asked our writers to chime in on what they thought might happen over the next few weeks. Trying to predict the outcomes of short baseball series is a fool’s errand, but I do think there are some interesting things to be learned from the collective opinions of some pretty smart people who follow the game closely. My individual predictions might be worthless, but there’s strength in numbers, and the overall assessment of what our staff is expecting produces some interesting results.
ALDS: Rays vs Rangers: Texas (12), Tampa Bay (10)
I was surprised at how even the split was here, given that the Rangers have been able to setup their rotation for round one while the Rays are scrambling a bit after getting in on literally the last play of their regular season. Still, even with rookie Matt Moore on track to start game 1 and the Rays limited to just one start from ace David Price, a good portion of the staff here thinks TB pulls off the upset.
ALDS: Tigers vs Yankees: New York (13), Detroit (9)
Given the presence of Justin Verlander and how well the Tigers have played lately, plus questions surrounding all the NY starters not named Sabathia, it feels like the national opinion is swaying towards Detroit in round one. However, most of the voting authors here feel that New York will still be able to advance – I’d imagine there’s some residual skepticism about whether overachievers like Doug Fister and Jhonny Peralta can keep up their strong performances from the regular season.
ALCS: New York (7), Texas (6), Detroit (5), Tampa Bay (4)
Here’s where the parity really shows up, as no one is an obvious favorite, and everyone gets a decent amount of support for the AL Championship. This seems like a pretty fair assessment of the actual odds of these teams winning the pennant to me.
NLDS: Brewers vs Diamondbacks: Milwaukee (20), Arizona (2)
Yeah, so much for parity – nearly everyone on staff thinks the Brewers are going to win. Despite 94 wins, an MVP candidate, and two quality starting pitchers, the Diamondacks still don’t seem to appear as on par with the big boys, and Milwaukee’s strong rotation and powerful sluggers are expected to carry the day.
NLDS: Phillies vs Cardinals: Phidelphia (21), St Louis (1)
Speaking not being given much of a chance, hello St. Louis. They clearly have a better than 4.5% chance to win the series, but with the Phillies steamrolling the National League all season and the Cardinals throwing Kyle Lohse in Game 1, it’s tough for anyone to justify actually picking St. Louis in the first round. Just given the nature of baseball and a five game set, the Cardinals probably have something like a 30-35% chance of winning the series, but they’re pretty clearly the biggest underdogs of round one.
NLCS: Milwaukee (13), Philadelphia (9)
Surprise! If you put any stock in the consensus among our staff members, the Brewers are the team to beat in the National League, not the Phillies. Just to appease the angry hordes from Philadelphia, I will note that there was no discussion among the writers about who was picking who, and no one’s selection was influenced in any way. The Phillies will almost certainly be seen as favorites from the national perspective, but the Brewers are a good team and an NLCS between the two should be a good fight. That said, I’m still surprised that the majority of our staff went with the boys from Wisconsin. I’d peg the Phillies as slight favorites in a straight up battle, and I think they have an easier path to the second round. But, hey, that’s why we’re giving you the consensus opinion and not just my ramblings.
World Series: Milwaukee (7), Philadelphia (7), Texas (3), New York (3), Detroit (1), Tampa Bay (1)
The NL teams lead the charge, as the teams with the two strongest sets of starting pitchers are considered the favorites to take home the whole enchilada. The four more balanced AL squads each get some support, while not surprisingly, neither of the two NL squads who got much support to advance past round one are represented here. I do think that Philadelphia and Milwaukee are probably the two most likely teams to win it all, but this kind of voting process likely overstates those odds. In three weeks of baseball, anything can happen, and I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the eight teams still alive was having a parade at the end of the month.
And, for transparency and to make accusation’s of bias easier, here’s the vote by staff member.
I really, really wanted to pick MIlwaukee to win it.
But…and shhh…keep this on the DL…those Philly guys can pitch.
Yah, I’m a bit confused by this. Was this poll about the teams who people would LIKE to see win, or the teams they actually think are LIKELY to win. Because while I have a big soft spot for the Brewers this year, I’d definitely bet 100 bucks that the Phillies win an ALCS against them.
I mean… betting against 2 starts from Roy Halladay? I just couldn’t take that side of the bet. So uhm… if there are some FanGraphs writers who like taking bets with less than 50% payout… I’m putting 10,000 internets on the table if that matchup occurs.
ALCS?
Matt Moore starting game 1? CC Sabathia vs Justin Verlander? The big 2 free agent 1B for this offseason? A young, surging underdog team from Arizona that nobody expected to be anywhere near here? And I haven’t even mentioned the Phillies rotation. I love me some October baseball. No Mariners, so Go Rays!
I’m surprised the yankees only got 3 votes to win it all
The WS totals are likely skewed a bit by the fact that the staff clearly thinks the two strong NL teams have an easier path to the NLCS, so therefore their odds of winning it all are higher. The perceived tougher first round opponents in the AL makes it less likely that any AL team wins it all.
I think a clearer way to say this is:
13 writers picked the Brewers and 9 writers picked the Phillies to appear in the WS, so the max possible that could pick them to win the WS is 13 and 9 respectively. On the other hand, only 7 writers picked the Yankees to even make it to the World Series so it is only possible that 7 could pick them to win the WS.
I’ll go with the ratings nightmare.. AR vs Det.
Or worse, AZ vs Rays.
True.
The expansion series! RATINGS GALORE!
That’s actually the series I’m hoping for!
Despite the Rays position, I think their game 1 starter is on par with the Rangers. And obviously it just gets better for the Rays after that.
I feel like the Brewers are being overrated. They haven’t fared well against good clubs and were under .500 on the road. I feel like they are being selected since they are the best team in the NL that isn’t the Phillies. All of the AL teams are superior to the Brewers though.
…of course, predicting short series is near impossible, etc.
“All of the AL teams are superior to the Brewers though.”
I don’t think this is true, AT ALL…and I’m no Brewers fan, either.
Everybody knows about their offense, but take another look at their SP and Bullpen. That ain’t no joke.
Perhaps you are correct. I have to admit to being seriously biased against the Brewers because I witnessed the Yankees utterly destroy them earlier this year (I know its a silly small sample, but I’m human).
It is actually my opinion that the Brewers have a problem with offense. I think their lineup is very heavily tilted towards a few players and that these are the types of lineups that can be shut down by good pitching. Perhaps this is why they have a poor record against winning teams.
You have to remember tho.. the brewers were a different team when they faced the Yankees earlier this year
Ah, typical AL fanboy bigot. It’s also a foregone conclusion that you believe in the myth of AL superiority.
guilty.
I would love to see the MSM implode when Philadelphia gets swept by the Brewers.
why would that happen? ….either of those things?
Even worse if it’s St. Louis.
Haven’t you been watching ESPN this week?
StL was 6-3 vs. PHL in 2011.
Shoot, we had to start Lohse in hagme 1 just to give the Phils a phitin’ chance.
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Would anyone be really surprised is AZ beat MIL? or any of the AL teams beat any of the other AL teams?
IMO, any of the 4 teams in the AL could win the WS and it wouldn’t be surprising.
Likewise in the NL, only the DBacks seem like a surprise team … and a lot of that could be because of their lesser exposure of the west coast and lesser star power (name recognition).
PHL is a heavy favorite and I think a lot of folks picking MIL (trying to look insightful or see something no one else sees?) may look really silly not picking PHL.
I wouldn;t be stunned if the Brewers simply repeated the Cubs performance form the 2007 performance. I like the Brewers team talent, but I don;t trust them.
I have no explanantion for this.
Game 1.
I don’t see how anyone could objectively pick anything but Phils over Yankees in the big show. I think your staff is letting their wishes trump their reason.
Having said that, I am picking the Rays just because I want them to win.
Any team that pays the same for their entire team that the Giants pay for just Zito, Rowand and Huff has to be my heros.
You might have a point with the Phillies, however the Yankees are not clear favorites against anybody except Arizona or St. Louis (and I’d be surprised if either of those matchups happen).
Why can’t someone objectively prefer the Tigers over the Yankees? Or the Rangers? or even Tampa with their pitching?
…and I say this as the most biased of Yankees fans…
Don’t you mean Red Sox over Phillies?
The playoffs are a crapshoot. Anyone can win any series. There are just not enough games for the best team to emerge. In 2010, people were ready to hand the World Series trophy to the Phillies pre-playoffs, and look what happened. Let them play the games.
In 2011 people were ready to hand the trophy to the Redsox and they didn’t even survive the regular season. Does that make the regular season a craps shoot too?
I dislike the idea that the playoffs are a craps shoot because it implies that it is essentially random. This is not the case. The better teams have better odds of winning a short series. However, the odds may never be that far off 50-50. This doesn’t make it random. It just makes it appear random because we aren’t looking at enough series.
+1 for calling out hyperbole
It’s funny that everyone’s giving Kyle Lohse no shot…..when he’s actually been pretty good down the stretch. Obviously it’s a favorable pitching matchup for the Phillies, but the same matchup went emphatically the Cards way two weeks ago. It’s not likely, but let’s not write it off either…… I firmly believe the Cards win at least one of the two in Philly. Cards in 4.
How exactly is Doug Fister overachieving? His FIP – ERA is 0.19. Not exactly a strong candidate for regression.
Dave –
I was looking at the table with everyone’s predictions and I noticed a couple of mistakes in yours. First, you picked Detroit over the Yankees but that can’t be the case since you hate Justin Verlander. Secondly, you have the Phillies in the World Series. That’s obviously a mistake since every other article you write is about how Ryan Howard is overpaid and, in general, you hate the Phillies even more than you hate Matt Cain.
You should really fix those predictions as soon as possible.
Trolling or stupidity….hard to tell.
This is why predictions are usually a waste of time. In a short series (where there’s more unpredictablity) the Cardinals have essentially no chance against the Phillies according to the polls. In a long series, which favors the better team more than a short series, the Brewers are the favorites over the Phillies. By the basic principles of logic, the Brewers are considered a vastly superior team to the Cardinals when there is absolutely no evidence of that. The season narratives (which I don’t take a whole lot of stock in) state that the Brewers outplayed the Cardinals for about two weeks back in August. The cold hard numbers (3rd order wins) would suggest that the Brewers are about 4 games better over a full season. Not impressive.
Also, by third order wins, the juggernaut in this postseason is the Rangers. The numbers suggest they are 5 wins better than the Phillies over a full season and at least 10 wins better than anyone else.
I agree, predictions are a waste of time. I’m going with the Rangers.
As usual, the Diamondbacks don’t get anything close to the recognition they deserve. Its ok, I don’t mind shoving it in your faces when they win again.
I have the Red Sox as the best beer drinking team.
Rockies will win it all. We all know they are one of MLB’s elite teams.
I get a kick out of the inane comments that blindly say that one team is better than another.. is this Fangraphs or ESPN.com?
That said, I’m very surprised at how many picked the Brewers to win it all. As a Brewers fan it is great to see that, I just don’t feel extremely confident that the crew would be able to get past Philly’s pitching (my assumption being that the Brewers and Phillies make it past the NLDS).
@Dave. Each writer has one team from each league in the series. Therefore the bias you suggest should not exist.
Why do you hate TB, NY, AZ, and STL, you biased prick.
Forget about predictions, what about odds? At least odds eliminate the bias that people might have and show the simple heads up probability that each team has of advancing. In a 5 game series, the Cardinals still have at LEAST a 15% chance of winning three games before the Phillies do. I understand and appreciate the predictions on a case by case (individual) basis but together they count for nothing. Even the Dbacks and the Cards have a chance (slight as they are) of winning it all.