FANS Playoff Probabilities – NL Version

Last week I presented American League playoff probabilities based on a simulation I had created (which I came to find is similar to the one produced by xls sports if you want to play around with this yourself. They even have incorporated home field which I have not yet). If you are interested in the details of the simulation, give last weeks post a quick read. Remember, these are based off of standings generated from the FANS projections. Without further ado, let’s take a look at the National League results.

East       Div Win %    WC Win %   Playoff %
Braves           56%          9%         65%
Phillies         23%         11%         34%
Marlins          12%          7%         19%
Mets              7%          4%         11%
Nationals         2%          1%          3%
Central    
Cardinals        63%         6%          69%
Cubs             12%         5%          17%
Brewers          11%         5%          16%
Reds             10%         5%          15%
Astros            3%         1%           4%
Pirates           1%         0%           1%
West      
Rockies          35%        12%          47%
Diamondbacks     31%        13%          44%
Dodgers          18%        10%          28%
Giants            9%         6%          15%
Padres            7%         5%          12%

and again some other useful data points compared to historical data

Division        Avg. Wins      2002-2009 Avg Wins
East              94           95
Central           93           93
West              94           91
Wild Card         91           91

The big surprise here is the Braves/Phillies flip-flopping in the East. It would be interesting to go back through the FANS projections for the two teams and see who the FANS are higher/lower on than other projection systems. In the Central, the Cardinals have the tightest hold on any division in baseball according to the FANS, while the West looks like it will be a dogfight.

Next on the simulation to-do list is to simulate some of the most probable playoff scenarios.



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Steve's ramblings about baseball can also be found at Beyond the Box Score and Play a Hard Nine or you can follow him on Twitter


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The A Team
Guest
The A Team
6 years 6 months ago

Without actually looking into it, I’m guessing that the fans are more optimistic about Jurrjens and Hanson than other systems and less optimistic about Rollins, Happ, Moyer, Blanton, and Hamels.

Tom B
Guest
Tom B
6 years 6 months ago

They also seem to be forgetting they lost Vasquez and replaced him with… uhm…

David Appelman
Admin
Member
6 years 6 months ago

Vasquez for the sake of these probabilities isn’t on the Braves, even if he’s still on the Braves projection page.

Cooper S
Guest
Cooper S
6 years 6 months ago

…Tim Hudson.

Jon
Guest
Jon
6 years 6 months ago

Its this brand new thing called having 5 good starters already.

Sky Kalkman
Member
6 years 6 months ago

Assuming you’re right, I think the fans would be wrong on Jurrjens, Rollins, and Hamels, bringing the Phillies a little closer to the Braves.

Neat to see another perspective that the Phillies aren’t runaway favorites at all.

neuter_your_dogma
Guest
neuter_your_dogma
6 years 6 months ago

Could be subjective bias creeping in, belief being that it is difficult for any team to win a division 4 years in a row.

Jason B
Guest
Jason B
6 years 6 months ago

The Braves showed how difficult that was for eleven consecutive years.

Werthless
Member
Werthless
6 years 6 months ago

The Phillies won’t run out a starter (like Moyer) with a 5.00 ERA for over 120 innings. They have enough resources to have other options (via trade or an available free agent like Pedro Martinez). This would explain the pessimistic FANS projection, which is only the sum of the opening day parts.

bobo
Guest
bobo
6 years 6 months ago

I’m not sure I understand how the true team winning percentages were derived for the pupose of the simulations, i looked back at the prior posts but with all the adjustments I wasn’t sure I’d be able to reproduce the data. I looked at the FAN projected WAR for most of the Braves and Phils starting position players and starting pitching, I ignored the relief pitchers because I got tired of looking at individual pages. It looked like there weren’t any projections for Heyward. The other projections all seemed skewed too high as has been mentioned in the prior threads.

I was surprised the D’backs were projected to win their division that many times, I think those are some pretty optimistic fans out there. I would have placed them 4th in that division.

Steve Sommer
Guest
6 years 6 months ago

bobo,

For the purposes of the sim, I just used the FANS standings as produced by David Appelman to derive the true talent win %. He’d have to weigh in with how he derived those, as I took them at face value.

Ivdown
Guest
Ivdown
6 years 6 months ago

The Dodgers are just so underrated, and I’m not sure why. Is it because Padilla is the 4th starter? Because his value level is reflected in many staffs at the 4th starter spot. Is it because the 5th starter isnt known yet? Because there are a few people fighting for that spot that would make many team’s back end of the rotation.

I just don’t know.

Paul
Guest
Paul
6 years 6 months ago

Your site and all of the sims are new to me, but I’d have to question any system that gives the Phils only a 34% of making the playoffs and the Braves a 65% (virtual lock) on a spot. As a longtime Braves fan, I’m just hoping that they can make the divisional race interesting. While their pitching is solid, I wonder where their runs are going to come from. I also think they’ve picked up some injury prone players when their best hitter (Jones) can only be expected to be in the lineup (and healthy) about 70% of the time (at most).
Obviously, I hope these projections prove to be true, but they seem to defy basic baseball knowledge/common sense.

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