FG on Fox: The Brilliance of Johnny Cueto

Before the year started, an easy prediction for National League Cy Young Award winner would’ve been the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw. Then Kershaw, last year’s winner, went and got himself hurt, and though he’s presently back in action, the voters have historically been big on full seasons.

When Kershaw went down, an easy substitute NL Cy Young prediction would’ve been the Marlins’ Jose Fernandez. Then last year’s NL Rookie of the Year who, finished third in the Cy voting, got hurt and is having Tommy John surgery on Friday.

So, the field’s open.

Philadelphia’s Cliff Lee, certainly, is a contender, if he doesn’t get traded to the other league. Washington’s Stephen Strasburg now has his ERA under control, and of course there’s no forgetting St. Louis’ Adam Wainwright, last year’s runner-up in the Cy voting.

However, if the voting were to be conducted today, the certain winner would be Cincinnati’s Johnny Cueto … even if Kershaw and Fernandez hadn’t suffered their injuries, because Cueto has been that dominant.

Read the rest on FoxSports.com.



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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.


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Iron
Guest
Iron
2 years 4 months ago

Although I am not as familiar with bWAR, I am fascinated that Cueto is listed at 3.5 bWAR for the year so far, second only to Tulo and way, way above any other pitcher.

jpg
Guest
jpg
2 years 4 months ago

I was watching the Mets/Yankees game and Gary Cohen mentioned that Cueto is the first pitcher in about 100 years to have nine straight starts in which he’s tossed at least seven innings and given up two runs or fewer.

Last six starts:

51 IP – 20 H – 10 BB – 5 ER – 53 K

He’s a beast.

Yovani
Guest
Yovani
2 years 4 months ago

Past 9 starts: 8 homeruns given up. He’s tied for the 14th most homeruns given up.

khuss18
Member
khuss18
2 years 4 months ago

First of all he’s given up 7 home runs, but that is over 72 innings, which is far and away the most innings pitched. He’s given up 0.88 HR/9, which puts him right in the middle of the pack for qualified starters (also 5 of those HR have come in 39 innings pitched at GABP, probably the most home run friendly park in the league)

Schuxu
Guest
Schuxu
2 years 4 months ago

Makes the small amount of runs even more impressive.

Steel
Guest
Steel
2 years 4 months ago

What do you think a realistic regression would look like for that 99.5 percent strand rate of his?

Iron
Guest
Iron
2 years 4 months ago

80?

SpiceFreeman
Member
SpiceFreeman
2 years 4 months ago

Does anyone know the last time a SP averaged 8 innings/start over a 9 game span? Halladay? CC during his Brewers stint? I’d be surprised if it’s happened more than a few times in the past ~20 years.

Evan
Guest
Evan
2 years 4 months ago

Cliff Lee did it July 30th to September 15th, 2011. He also averaged over 8 for a 21 start stretch from April 30th to August 16th, 2010.

Evan
Guest
Evan
2 years 4 months ago

Also Verlander for 10 starts in 2011 and Shields for his final 11 of 2011.

SpiceFreeman
Member
SpiceFreeman
2 years 4 months ago

Wow. That’s an amazing stretch. Thanks for the info.

StrikeThree
Guest
2 years 4 months ago

In ’68 Tiant had 10 consecutive starts (4/28-6/9) with 7 or more IP (total 78), 2 or less ER (total 8), 68 K’d, 23 BB. 5 shutouts. Record 9-1 over 10 games.

Flag
Guest
Flag
2 years 4 months ago

99.5% strand rate? Is that a typo? BABIP over 100 points below his career average? K-rate highest in years, with no discernible change in what he’s throwing?

But no, these are not red flags. They are red flags soaked in gasoline and set on fire.

Iron
Guest
Iron
2 years 4 months ago

Well of course regression is going to happen. That doesn’t mean he is not likely to continue having a fantastic year.

Flag
Guest
Flag
2 years 4 months ago

Possible – assuming he stays healthy. However, if his K/9, BABIP, and strand rates regress to even the neighborhood of career averages, he doesn’t look all that special in this pitching-dominant era.

peopletocakeratio
Guest
peopletocakeratio
2 years 4 months ago

it looks like brayan pena was catching for all 4 of the gifs. to me, someone with an untrained eye, the framing of these pitches looks pretty darn good. pena was a member of the tigers last year, so that’s another change for cueto.

is it possible that pena’s receiving skills have inspired a bit more confidence for cueto to throw at the inside/outside edges of the plate, knowing there’d be a good chance he’d get the call if he hit his spot?

Redlegs
Guest
Redlegs
2 years 4 months ago

I love all the ‘assuming he stays healthy’ stuff.

Look, the dude was on the DL last year 3 or 4 times for the SAME injury. Read: it never healed right. Or maybe more accurately: Dusty never allowed time for it to heal right.

His ERA for the past 4 years or so is better than just about everyone whose name doesn’t rhyme with Flayton Swershaw. His Ks are way up, but if you read through the link, it explains why. Will batters adjust? Probably. Will his K rate regress? Likely. Does that mean he’s really not a very good pitcher? Absolutely not. He’s a bona fide ACE, and after next years $10M club option, he’s going to be a very rich man. Too bad we tied so damn much money up with Homer. Should have signed Leake for a third of Homer’s contract and saved the rest for Johnny Rocket. Way to go Walter, you numbskull!

Strikethree
Guest
2 years 4 months ago

’68 Tiant: 1st 12 starts? 12 ER, 91 inn., 81K, 27 BB. He would go on to lead AL with ERA < 2, and K 9 / 9 innings.

Swfcdan
Guest
Swfcdan
2 years 4 months ago

Would you trade any pitcher for him right now?

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