Finding Fits For Hanley Ramirez
Yesterday, the Marlins officially declared themselves sellers, as they shipped Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante off to Detroit for a group of prospects headlined by pitcher Jacob Turner. Within hours of completing that deal, rumors began to swirl that teams were also scouting Josh Johnson and that the Marlins were definitely open to moving Hanley Ramirez. Johnson makes sense for contenders shopping for a non-rental starting pitcher, and I expect he’ll be in heavy demand over the next week, with the Marlins able to command a strong return for their ace if they do decide to move him. However, when it comes to their mercurial third baseman, finding the right fit for a deal isn’t going to be quite as easy.
The primary issue with trading Ramirez is that he simply hasn’t been very good for a couple of years now. Since the start of last season, he’s hit just .245/.328/.405 in 776 plate appearances, good for a .323 wOBA that puts him in the same class of hitter as guys like Jeff Francoeur, Bobby Abreu, and Johnny Damon. That’s a far cry from the .393 wOBA he posted from 2006 to 2010, when he was on the same level as Mark Teixeira, Jim Thome, and Ryan Braun.
Ramirez’s regression at the plate last year was mostly written off as a function of injuries, as he spent time on the DL with back and shoulder problems, and ended up playing in just 92 games last season. However, he’s been healthy enough to play regularly this year, and his performance is nearly identical to what he posted a year ago. While he’s gotten a bit of his power back, it’s come at the expense of fewer walks and more strikeouts, so the overall package has still just added up to an average hitter.
Some players can be extremely valuable while producing league average offense — Elvis Andrus and Matt Wieters, for instance — but Hanley Ramirez is not a good defensive player, and the move to third base hasn’t seemed to help him much. In addition, his previous exploits running the bases have slowed way down, and he’s only been successful on 34 of 48 stolen base attempts the last two years. A 70% base stealer isn’t adding much in the way of value, so right now, Ramirez’s entire value is tied up in how well he hits. And for that kind of player, a league average wOBA just won’t cut it.
So, any team acquiring Ramirez has to be willing to accept that present day Ramirez is not the Ramirez of several years ago. He’s just 28, so there’s reason to believe that he could rebound, but that’s more hope than substance at this point. Today’s version of Hanley Ramirez is an average player without a defined position, and one that is due $31.5 million over the next two years. At that kind of price, you can’t just hope that there’s some rebound potential — you need it to be likely in order to justify the salary, especially if the Marlins are going to ask for legitimate talent in return.
Given what’s left on his contract, there are probably two kinds of deals that make sense for Ramirez — a large revenue team just taking his contract off Miami’s hands for little or no talent in return, or a smaller revenue club surrendering a real prospect in exchange for the Marlins paying some of the freight to ship him out of town. Given that the Marlins just opened their new stadium and don’t want to bring back memories of previous cost-cutting fire sales, the latter probably makes more sense, as it’s easier to convince your fan base that you aren’t going cheap if you’re kicking in cash in order to give the fans a shiny new young player with which to identify.
So, that’s the criteria – small-to-mid revenue team in need of an upside play on offense that is willing to sacrifice future talent in an effort to upgrade in the short term. Ken Rosenthal suggested the Oakland A’s, but they might be too small in terms of revenues to make it fit. They opened the year with a $53 million payroll, and so even if the Marlins picked up $5 million each of the next two years, Ramirez would represent 20% of their total Major League budget. You can make that kind of bet on a superstar, but probably not a guy with the risks associated with Ramirez. The Marlins would probably have to eat something closer to $8-$10 million per year to make it work for the A’s financially, and at that kind of cost, the Marlins asking price in terms of talent might be too high to have it make sense for a team that might just be in the wild card trap.
The Orioles also have been mentioned as a possibility, but Wilson Betemit offers a very similar average-offense-and-bad-defense combination at the hot corner, and the Orioles have more pressing issues elsewhere (read: pitching) if they’re looking to upgrade. They have the payroll necessary to take on most of Hanley’s contract, but they’re probably better served focusing on other parts of their roster and continuing with the youth movement, given that sustainable success in the AL East requires a commitment to developing from within. I wouldn’t count them out, but I think there’s a better fit for Hanley within their same division, just across the northern border.
The Toronto Blue Jays have been perpetually stuck in the middle of the AL East, and while Alex Anthopolous has done a remarkable job of undoing some of the damage done to the organization before he took over, the team has yet to make the leap from solid team to legitimate contender. Their firm stance on long term contract avoidance means that their upcoming payroll flexibility might be better used to acquire a player already under contract rather than trying to negotiate for a coveted player in free agency. And, as we’ve seen with Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto is a terrific place for a talented right-handed power hitter to get his career back on track.
Whatever They’re Calling The Skydome Now inflates home runs by right-handers by 5%, triples by 21%, and doubles by 2%, so the Jays would offer a nice landing spot for Ramirez to start tapping into his previous power once again. And, as we’ve seen from their willingness to take Colby Rasmus and Yunel Escobar, the Jays aren’t afraid of taking players that have worn out their welcome with their previous organization. In terms of environment, Toronto is probably one of the best possible places for Ramirez to get his career back on track.
The question would be positional fit. With Brett Lawrie catching everything hit towards third base, Ramirez would probably have to change positions again in order to fit in Toronto. That would leave the team with two options: give him his old job at shortstop back or convert him into the outfielder he was meant to be from the start.
Yunel Escobar hasn’t hit much this year and it’s rumored that the Jays wouldn’t mind getting rid of him, so the team could make a pair of moves that swaps out defense for offense at short and hope that Lawrie has enough range to compensate for the fact that Ramirez isn’t much of a shortstop. The defensive downgrade might outweigh most of the offensive gains, though, and they’d be selling low on Escobar, so instead, the Jays should push for Ramirez to accept a new role as an outfielder.
As a strong armed athletic guy with speed who struggles making basic plays on ground balls hit right at him, the outfield is almost certainly where Ramirez would have his most defensive value. In fact, with a bit of work, it’s not hard to see Ramirez becoming a quality defensive outfielder, as he has the physical tools to run down balls in the gap that most corner outfielders can’t get to. While the Jays are currently experimenting with Anthony Gose and Travis Snider in the corners while Jose Bautista is on the shelf, neither have Ramirez’s present offensive abilities and they probably don’t have his upside either.
Gose, in particular, might be an intriguing trade chip for the Marlins, where he could take over as their center fielder of the future, a position that is currently blocked in Toronto by the presence of Colby Rasmus. He’s the kind of talent that they’d likely eat a substantial portion of Ramirez’s contract in order to acquire, and a Gose-for-Ramirez-and-lots-of-cash swap could end up being beneficial to both franchises.
With Bautista, Encarnacion, and Ramirez, the Jays would have three right-handed bats who can take advantage of the ballpark, and a career resurgence from Hanley could propel the team into legitimate contender status. They probably won’t run down the Yankees this year, but a move like this could make their September games a bit more interesting and set them up to make a run at the division title for the next several years.
Ramirez has his warts, but that’s the main reasons he’s available to begin with. The Blue Jays have overlooked downside in a chase for talent before, and if they’re willing to do it again, they could end up buying low on a talented player who could push them into relevance once again.
I wouldn’t mind it if the Dodgers gave up a c prospect for the right to take on his salary for the next couple of years. They’re desperate for bats all over the lineup.
This is exactly the type of trade Dave dismisses as not being good for the Marlins based on their history of dumping high salaried players for nothing. The Dodgers could use Ramirez but I’d have to think that the Marlins would insist on eating a bunch of salary and getting something pretty good in return.
You’re right, be did say that. What I’m questioning is how is it so easy to assume that’s the case? I can see the Fish sending him to LA to save money.
good guess
I bet the BoSox would offer something better than ” little or no talent in return.” Maybe we will see.
I heard a C.Crawford for Ramirez swap mentioned somewhere…. Does that make sense for either franchise? Would Boston be eating a bunch of the Crawford contract? It has to just be some crazy rumor, right?
Boston would have to eat a ton of Crawford’s contract. Otherwise, it doesn’t make any sense for the Marlins.
What about shipping him across state to TB, if the Marlins will eat a large chunk of the salary? They Rays have a black hole at SS and the Marlins could use a pitching prospect in exchange. Hell maybe even Shields could use a change in scenery, which would perhaps free up enough cash for the Rays to take on some of that contract.
Doesn’t really seem like the Rays’ style, does it?
rays value defense and smart base running. not a good match
Rays value baserunning and defense because they’re not priced the same in the market as offense. They’d take cheap offense any day.
I think the Jays would rather gamble that Travis Snider provides at least what HanRam would provide in left for far less money.
Snider is still very much a question but given his last 2 years, so is Ramirez. I don’t think that it’s a slam dunk that Ramirez has the better ceiling now. He may have already hit it and started his decline, whereas Snider is still only 24 and could still put it together.
If the Jays deal with the Marlins, it would be for Johnson. Ramirez might be in that deal, but it would be as a salary dump, not a key figure.
Agreed no chance Gose is moved unless JJ is involved.
Personally, I think the most logical move for the Jays (should Hanley actually be in play) would be to ship out Johnson and try Hanley at second.
He won’t be a superstar on D, but the skills of a former SS do translate well to 2B and he certainly could hold his own should the bat come back around. It’s not as though Johnson is a defensive whiz right now.
2B is a question mark for the Jays going forward and they could certainly do worse than Hanley..
Wrong Johnson…
What in God’s name are you talking about?
While the Dodgers certainly feel like a fit, too, I’m a Jays fan hoping that Dave’s got it right in the article.
Me too yona, me too
I think the Marlins would tell you that they already have a “Center-Fielder of the future” in the farm system in Christian Yelich. Yelich is also much more highly touted than Gose and is also a lefty-bat.
He’s also most likely a corner OF, though, and not a CF.
And isn’t that much more highly rated than Gose, but apart from that…
Fair point regarding his OF positioning, but offensively he is rated considerably higher than Gose and projects to offer above-average defense in LF.
Yeah, they are calling Skydome the Rogers Centre, its second name since inception. Not exactly a revolving door of names.
Seems defiant rather then cheeky. I like Skydome better then RC anyway.
If you believe SOME of the press from around the time of his death, so did Ted Rogers who purportedly regretted the name change…
Trading for someone like Hanley is tough, because his name-value is much greater than his production-value. Some team will give up way too much because they’ll think he can still be an MVP-caliber player with a change of scenery. I don’t know who will make the trade for him, but I think it’s likely that the Marlins will come out on top of that trade.
I disagree entirely. I think so much has been written about how much Ramirez has struggled and the issues with him switching positions, about needing Ozzie Guillen to coddle him, etc. that no GM is going to overpay for him. Besides, while some GMs are smarter than others, I’d be willing to bet that they can all look at Ramirez’s basic stats from the last 2 years, compare them to the previous years, and know better than to give away too much.
If Hanley does move his talents to the frozen North, why not move position to second base? It’s not like Johnson is hitting the cover off the ball and he’s a free-agent at the end of the year anyway.
And AA (via Rogers) is more likely to want less money included in any move t reduce the level of the prospect going the other way. They paid $6M with Halladay to get better specs, why not this time too?
Why do you think such a notoriously bad fielder could do well at second? It’s probably a more difficult position than third, and it’s got a whole set of separate skills involving turning DPs. I can’t see it.
Agreed. Plus it would waste his 2 defensive talents: arm and speed.
I have always though that Ramirez should be a CF. Maybe he’s not too old to switch.
The skills from SS translate fairly well to 2B and nobody is expecting a world beating D from him there… Just passable with a good bat.
Jays aren’t exactly hurting for D at the moment, so they could take a SLIGHT downgrade (being that Johnson isn’t a gold glove calibre player either) at 2B
I disagree. I think a slightly below average (“notoriously bad” is a stretch) SS with Hanley’s skill-set could make that transition fairly well.
They got (Wallace which turned into) Gose, Drabek, and D’arnaud. Incredible trade
This is just an aside, but I thought I’d mention it since it’s brought up here: why is everyone saying the O’s biggest need is pitching? They’re 9th in the AL in runs against, tied for 10th in runs scored. They’re also dead last in the majors in UZR. On top of that, most of the pitchers they’re running out there are young, talented guys with upside. Tillman, Matusz, Britton, and Arrieta have all struggled at various times and are inconsistent, but they at least offer the ability to be very good and occasionally toss some gems. In the meantime, the lineup last night included Endy Chavez and Ryan Flaherty. They play with below average defenders at every single position except SS and C (and maybe 2B). They’re starting Mark Reynolds at 1B, Chris Davis in LF, and Wilson Betemit at 1B while Nick Markakis has gone from above average in RF to worst in the league.
Seems like the most obvious way to improve this team is to find some guys who are either good hitters or good fielders and at least league average at the other. Having a terrible defense is also not a great way to support the development of young pitchers.
Seems to me the most obvious
I don’t see how Hanley is anything other than a dump. Not sure how he could command any good prospects in return. He’s a 1B/DH/LF who’s been league avg. at th eplate for 2yrs.
As a salary dump to make the price of gettin Johnson cheaper in prospects? Now that makes plenty of sense.
AA should offer Deck McGuire and the Marlins should be happy to accept.
ah my favorite troll again! still bitter that I was 100% right about your beloved Red Sox, eh? keep fighting the good fight, my friend!
As for Hanley, the Marlins should be happy to have him claimed off waivers at this point. He’s worth less than your boy Youk.
Once again, my fake troll of already fake me appears, how convoluted a game we play.
No need to layer on the sarcasm or play it thick in an attempt to be me, the standings and statistics speak for themselves. Your pathetic Red Sox are one of the feeblest franchises in baseball, while my Blue Jays are fast become the it spot for marquee free agents.
your red sox still suck, my friend. I was right, you were wrong. No amount of trolling in my name will ever, ever change that.
lol riiight
How old are you two? Your idiocy and stubbornness have really gotten old. You two need to act like you’re older than about 9 and change your screen names and quit trying to ruin threads with your idiotic back-and-forths.
Both of these accounts need to be shut down by some sort of administrator here. Their trolling in multiple articles day after day really needs to stop. It’s just something that shouldn’t be allowed on a reputable site like this.
Life would improve if everyone called everdiso got banned. Actually, I suspect they are all the same person anyway.
Interestingly enough, Hanley has not suffered playing in the Marlins new pitchers park. In fact he has a massive home road split:
Home .303 .387 .494 (looks like old Hanley)
Road .187 .251 .363 (wtf)
Everdiso has always acted like a doucebag on this site.
true enough. I am a douchebag. though I have a feeling red sox fans think I’m more of a douche than anyone else, even if in the end they’ve ended up agreeing with me on lackey and crawford et al.
That’s not the real Detroit Michael. It’s a troll stealing my nickname.
so an alternate title is “LOLMarlins”?
Haven’t we seen Chicago White Sox GM Kenny Williams trade for exactly this sort of player (i.e., a big name reclamation project with a large salary that is wanting to get dumped by his current team) repeatedly in recent years? And isn’t Williams wanting to respond to the Tigers’ trade for Omar Infante and Anibal Sanchez in order to keep up in the hunt for a playoff spot? Alexei Ramirez is hardly a stud SS and can be moved over to 2B, where he’s seemingly an upgrade over Gordon Beckham, who has been pretty lousy this season.
I thought the same thing. They could also play him at 3B…I think Peavy and some other salaries (Floyd?) will be off the books next year, so they can probably make the payroll work.
” In fact, with a bit of work, it’s not hard to see Ramirez becoming a quality defensive outfielder, as he has the physical tools to run down balls in the gap that most corner outfielders can’t get to”
Well, he has the physical tools to play shortstop and third base too. This is the story of Hanley’s career. H It’s the “bit of work” that’s the issue. I don’t see him adding much value defensively anywhere.
If the Jays do get both Hanley and JJ in a trade, they are immediately make the leap and become playoff contenders. Maybe not this year because of detrimental injuries to their staff but next year I would spot them as a favorite for WC1 and could make a strong case to challenge for the division, even if they had to give up Gose, Snyder or both
Josh Johnson, Brandon Morrow, Ricky Romero. Thats a strong 1a, 1b, and a number 2 as your top 3 starters. As well they have Santos the closer waiting in the wings. An already dangerous lineup that would add Hanley to the Hitters Haven of the AL East….imagine this lineup
Lawrie
Rasmus
Bautista
Encarnacion
Ramirez
Lind
Arencibia
Escobar/Johnson
Davis/Thames/ (or whoever)
….wow is all that comes to mind.
hey dave, what about the dodgers?
Ive just about had enough of this
Ramirez and Donnie Ballgame–sorry Dodgers bad move Ramirez is lazy and thinks too much of himself,Donnie is the answer to the question,ballplayer–This may be the WORST Dodger deal in history,however miracles have happened.
I can think of a lot worse moves.
2 years, 36 million to Andruw Jones
Carlos Santana (and change) for Casey Blake
Huge contract to Jason Schmidt knowing his shoulder was suspect
Mike Piazza trade.
Paul Konerko for Jeff Shaw.
This was actually a good move.
Given that the M’s weren’t mentioned, I kindof already have my answer here. But, I’ve been wondering for a while if the M’s shouldn’t be looking for these types of contracts. I’m guessing Hanley can’t play short any more, so that leaves third, which maybe makes him less of a fit.
But, the M’s *SHOULD* have money (who knows any more given how much the budget has gone down)… and overpaying for someone with marginal talent might beat playing the AAAA types we’re playing now. Seemingly the M’s are in the middle of the two scenarios Dave mentioned, they *should* have some cash, but they could also throw in a Liddi or a Peguero or a Robinson (not really sure about the level of prospect the Marlins would need).
In short, shouldn’t the M’s be looking for buy-low type players, who won’t cost too much in terms of prospects, but might be expensive on the money side?