For Once, Fortune Smiles on Cleveland
Cleveland fans have a rough life. It seems like all their sports success is tainted with pain: the Cavs were good in the 2000s, but then LeBron James dissed them on national television; the Browns were good in the 1980s, but they consistently lost in heart-breaking fashion in the playoffs and have only had three winning seasons since; and the Indians were great in the late 1990s, but haven’t won a World Series since 1948. There are many markets in the running for the title of “most miserable fans,” and while I won’t go so far as to crown a winner, I think Cleveland has a case to be considered among the best (worst?) of them.
So it should come as no surprise that after the Indians’ hot start, which has included an eight-game winning streak and a sweep of the Boston Red Sox at home, some Cleveland fans are already talking about being buyers at the trade deadline and making a run for the playoffs. While obviously it’s waaay too early in the season to be making such pronouncements, is there reason for hope in Cleveland this season?
Entering 2011, the Indians were predicted by most projection systems to have a rather low win total: 70 wins by CAIRO; 73 wins, according to Las Vegas and the FANS Standings; and 74 wins according to PECOTA. Cleveland was ranked #26 in the FanGraphs Organization Rankings, and the team polled near the bottom of the majors in present talent. Considering that the Indians only have played 12 games this season, we don’t have enough information to change those opinions. Most likely, the Indians are still a mediocre team riding a hot streak.
That said, there is still some hope to cling onto for Cleveland fans. The Indians are a team full of young players with lots of upside, and the team’s early success has been driven by those players. Asdrubal Cabrera has four home runs (more than he had all of last season), while Mitch Talbot is striking out eight batters per nine innings and Justin Masterson has looked like an ace, with a 2.63 FIP through two starts. Carlos Carrasco is a young pitcher who could be a serviceable mid-rotation starter (4.47 FIP projected by ZiPS), and Michael Brantley has been hitting for average (.311, .350 BABIP) and walking at a higher rate (9.6%) so far this year.
Many of these early season performances are unsustainable. With young players, it’s difficult to untangle how much of a performance is talent-driven and how much is a result of variability. I don’t expect Mitch Talbot to keep striking out eight batters per nine, but it’s possible that he’s become a better pitcher than he was last season and will increase his strikeout rate from last year’s 5 K/9. Similarly, I don’t expect Michal Brantley or Asdrubal Cabrera to keep hitting at their current rates. But considering both Brantley and Cabrera are still in their mid-20s, who’s to say that their performances so far this season aren’t a result of them becoming better players?
Also, even if none of these players keep up their hot performances over the course of the season, the Indians haven’t yet begun to get production from their stars. Shin-Soo Choo and Carlos Santana both have wOBAs around .245, while Fausto Carmona has allowed four homers this season and has a 6.11 ERA and a 5.34 FIP. The Indians are bound to get decreased performances from their young players, but they’re also likely to get better performances from this group. Right?
For the Indians to be in the AL Central race at the trading deadline would require everything to go right for the them. Not only would Cleveland need its players to outperform their projections and take significant steps forward, but the team would need things to go wrong for the other AL Central clubs. Look how things are shaping up so far: the Twins are in a slump and just lost Joe Mauer to the disabled list. The Tigers and White Sox were only projected to win around 82 games this season. The Indians have already banked a couple wins with their early streak, and if things continue to break in their favor….well, you never know.
I’m not about to put any gummi bears on the Indians maintaining their current pace, but that’s the beautiful thing about the early season: it gives hope — however slim — to all sorts of teams.
Don’t forget Grady Sizemore! One more week!
Tribe fan here. Very nice article. I think at this point us Cleveland fans are all realists but it’s just been nice to see a competitive team thus far. Hopefully it keeps up!
If Grady returns to form, they potentially have 5 win players at 3 positions(Choo, Santana,Sizemore)
When was the last time Grady was a 5 win player?
The last time he played a full season, and he was at 7.1
In your face, Wes!
Also, every AL Central team is flawed.
Every team is flawed, no team is perfect. Do you really think the White Sox or Detroit are flawed enough to allow Cleveland to take the division? The Sox took 2 out of three at Cleveland.
If Carmona wasn’t apart of that 1st game…Indians win 10-5. We had 17 hits to Chicago’s 18. It’s all relative…but just saying.
CLE now 9-4 with a run difference of +22, good for 3rd in MLB, and 10 ahead of WSox and KC. They could slow down quite a bit and maintain a hold of the AL Central.
“Every team is flawed”
Not the Red Sox! They are perfect in all parts of the game, I read it on the internet!
;) But seriously, I am not even sure what a perfect team would be. Would they win every game?
Saying that any team is flawed is like saying “small sample size” on any stats article written about the beginning of the season.
Don’t forget the very good prospect depth in the infield and a solid bullpen.
best fangraphs article in the history of fangraphs writing.
i’ve said it from the get go….to all my surrounding friends and family….to both rob dibble and casey stern (who actually cut me off the air after my reaction to him saying the royals would place higher in the central than the tribe) on mlb.xm radio….that the central is anybody’s to win. and that includes the tribe. if the pitching hold’s near to what it’s done up until this point, then this team is legit.
not mentioned was the healthy shoulder that resides in travis hafner this year. he had a game in seattle where im almost sure he put a ball into orbit. im not saying that he’s back to 2006 form, but he’s at least got himself healthy and productive.
and like htpp mentioned above, grady is back next week and im forced to feel that he’ll be that piece of the puzzle that either, puts this team out there as a legit contender in the central or shows what alot believe to be a grady that has somehow lost his abilities to play good baseball.
here’s to being hopeful and despite hesitancy…riding the wave of joy that’s come with the indians up until this point.
and steve….get ya gummi bears out, cause things about to get real.
Forbes.com actually just declared who they think the Most Miserable Sports Fans are: the good people of Seattle, Washington.
http://sports.yahoo.com/top/news?slug=ys-forbes_most_miserable_sports_cities_022811
As a Seattle sports fan…. I concur.
As a Washington sports fan…I also concur.
Washington, DC, that is.
The Onion got straight to the point with a “man on the street interview” with a Clevelander who pointed out, “We’ll win the same number of championships with or without major league teams.” http://www.onionsportsnetwork.com/video/suffering-cleveland-bans-all-professional-sports,19701/
The best part was the bulletin at the bottom of the screen stating “All CLE pitchers to quickly win Cy Youngs some where else”
You left out something pretty significant about Cleveland – the Browns were moved in 1995 and subsequently won the Super Bowl a few years later as the Ravens.
Watching the Indians and the Orioles play this weekend, I noticed that the Indians and the O’s are in similar situations, namely that they are potentially interesting teams that can cause some damage if a lot of things go right. For the O’s, that would involve their veteran hitters like Vlad and Reynolds to find a new lease on life, and for the new culture that Showalter introduces into their clubhouse to actually make a difference. The Indians, on the other hand, need their young players to live up to at least some of their potential right now. This means Masterson continuing to emerge as a solid #2 or even the ace, for Matt LaPorta to do SOMETHING, and for Sizemore to come back as at least a shadow of his former self. Travis Hafner seems to have bounced back, Orlando Cabrera is a welcome improvement over anything the Indians had at 2B until Jason Kipnis is ready, and the backbone of their lineup Choo and Santana) haven’t even really gotten started yet. And later this year, Lonnie Chisenhall is going to be coming up, if he comes into a situation where the Indians are actually still in it, and makes an impact the way Asdrubal did when he came up a few years ago, who knows what could happen?
The clock may have struck midnight for the O’s already, and every seasoned Indians fan is waiting for the same to happen to us at any moment. But they are already performing far above expectations. I don’t think they’re going to stay on top of the division, but if even a few of the many variables with this team end up going their way, a .500 season (with legitimate hope for the future) is not out of the question.
I remember watching the Indian’s last division title. That was really something … Willie Mays Hayes coming around from 2nd on the bunt single, and Rick Vaughn slamming the door shut. It was great.
That wasnt their last title, it was in 2007…lol