For Reference: The Seven Pitchers Selected Ahead of Michael Wacha

During the FOX telecast of Thursday night’s Game Two contest between Boston and St. Louis, there was some speculation among those gathered about what sort of players could have possibly been selected in the 2012 draft ahead of 19th-overall pick Michael Wacha, the Texas A&M product who has pitched excellently for the Cardinals this postseason just a year-plus after having been acquired.

In part, such feelings are understandable. One finds, in Wacha, a young pitcher excelling at the highest level under very demanding circumstances. That Wacha was chosen by the Cardinals — an organization whose player-development department appears, not unlike an early 1980s iteration of Tom Cruise, to have all the right moves — likely only compounds the impression that Wacha’s talents were there to be seen, had anyone been looking properly.

Of course, to make these assumptions is to dismiss the scouting efforts of the 18 organizations that selected ahead of St. Louis — and also, probably, to distort the player-development process. That Wacha is presently outperforming the pitchers* selected ahead of him is undeniable; however, one must also consider that there is possibly, among those other pitchers, one who possesses a higher ceiling and who might, ultimately, have a more productive career.

*To compare Wacha with those playing the same position.

Below is a brief summary — for purposes of reference — of the seven pitchers to have been selected ahead of Wacha in the 2012 draft. Ages are “baseball” ages (i.e. as of July 1, 2013). Stats provided are from level at which pitcher recorded the most innings this year. For each player, the author has also provided a brief (and largely unstudied) summary of that player’s present status.

If one is interested in drawing conclusions from the information presented here, probably the one to draw is that — to the half-trained eye, at least — there existed reasonable arguments for selecting the pitchers who were taken ahead of Wacha. There’s also reason to believe that certain of these pitchers have generated causes for optimism apropos their own future major-league careers.

Player: Kevin Gausman, 22, RHP (Link)
Club: Baltimore Orioles
Drafted: 4th School: Louisiana State Univ.
2013 Stats: 47.2 IP, 9.3 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 1.5 HR/9, 3.99 FIP (MLB)
Comments: Actually made his major-league debut on May 23, a week before Wacha. Like Wacha, pitched ca. 50 innings as starter and in relief. Like Wacha, exhibited impressive fastball and changeup (or, in his case, splitter). Like Wacha, recorded well above-average peripherals. Unlike Wacha, was less fortunate by other measures: .328 BABIP, 18.6% HR/FB, and 64.4% LOB. Still, rather impressive.

Player: Kyle Zimmer, 21, RHP (Link)
Club: Kansas City Royals
Drafted: 5th School: Univ. of San Francisco
2013 Stats: 89.2 IP, 11.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.12 FIP (High-A)
Comments: Despite playing collegiately in West Coast Conference (i.e. not typically a baseballing powerhouse), distinguished himself as amateur by means of excellent arm speed. Threw 95 mph a lot this season, according to internet. Lots of optimism regarding makeup, as well, according to Royals AGM J.J. Picollo. Placed 28th on Marc Hulet’s midseason prospect list. Very encouraging, all that.

Player: Max Fried, 19, LHP (Link)
Club: San Diego Padres
Drafted: 7th School: Harvard-Westlake HS (CA)
2013 Stats: 118.2 IP, 7.6 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9, 3.90 FIP (Class A)
Comments: High-school selection. Received first extended exposure to professional batters this season after being handled lightly following draft. Known for excellent curveball. Command not “issue,” per se, but something to monitor. Talent and relative youth are both causes for optimism. Ranked 41st on Hulet’s midseason list. Still quite promising, one would say.

Player: Mark Appel, 21, RHP (Link)
Club: Pittsburgh Pirates
Drafted: 8th School: Stanford Univ.
2013 Stats: 33.0 IP, 7.4 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.26 FIP (Class A)
Comments: Stats are from 2013, but not recorded with Pirates organization. Returned to Stanford following draft. Picked subsequently by Houston. Relatively low draft slot in 2012 was more question of signability than talent.

Player: Andrew Heaney, 22, LHP (Link)
Club: Miami Marlins
Drafted: 9th School: Oklahoma State Univ.
2013 Stats: 61.2 IP, 9.6 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 0.3 HR/9, 2.60 FIP (High-A)
Comments: Was actually more dominant, one could argue, than Wacha during their respective juniors years in Big 12, posting a lower ERA and better strikeout-to-walk figures. Injury limited him early in 2013. Went on to post excellent numbers in High-A Florida State League. Ranked 37th among all prospects by Hulet at midseason. Has case for best left-handed prospect in baseball, says Jim Callis.

Player: Nick Travieso, 19, RHP (Link)
Club: Cincinnati Reds
Drafted: 14th School: Archbishop McCarthy HS (FL)
2013 Stats: 81.2 IP, 6.7 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.96 FIP (Class A)
Comments: Another high-school selection. Regarded as probably rawest talent among group. Ranked 40th by Baseball America among draft-eligible players entering relevant draft. General sentiment indicates he has excellent arm speed and flashes of dominance, but lacks command and pitchability. Not present among Hulet’s top-50 preseason prospects. Muted expectations, one could say, perhaps.

Player: Lucas Giolito, 18, RHP (Link)
Club: Washington Nationals
Drafted: 16th School: Harvard-Westlake HS (CA)
2013 Stats: 22.2 IP, 9.9 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.32 FIP (Rookie)
Comments: Possible top selection in 2012 draft, if not for injury to UCL in senior year of high school. Underwent Tommy John surgery almost immediately after signing. Returned July of this year, healthy. Earned promotion to Low-A, eventually. Sat in mid-90s, according to internet.



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David
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David
2 years 11 months ago

I expect, as a follow up, a well commented listing of the 1,389 players selected before Mike Piazza.

Mike D
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Mike D
2 years 11 months ago

Shouldn’t it just be the first basemen (where he played at the time) that went ahead of him? That narrows it down to 250, plus or minus a few.

Green Mountain Boy
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Green Mountain Boy
2 years 11 months ago

I’d like to request the same for the 401 players drafted before Albert Pujols.

blue
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blue
2 years 11 months ago

Yes, this was my cue to explain to my wife why McCarver is so awful of an announcer.

Bud
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Bud
2 years 10 months ago

McCarver an awful announcer? Hardly. You’re probably just an awful listener.

Mike Green
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Mike Green
2 years 11 months ago

I don’t know that Gausman’s higher BABIP than Wacha’s this year was unfortunate, rather than a consequence of being a more hittable pitcher. His line-drive rate was over 25%; Wacha’s was under 17%.

Gausman is still a very good pitching prospect.

cass
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cass
2 years 11 months ago

As far as I understand it, line drive rate isn’t a very stable or reliable measure.

leeroy
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leeroy
2 years 11 months ago

It’s not all that stable. However, my understanding is that Mr. Wacha’s command is far superior to Mr. Gausman’s, which could feed in to their respective BABIP talent levels.

*This is all speculation of course, as we are yet to figure out a good command metric that we could use in a study to confirm said relationship and how material its effects are.

Guest
Guest
Guest
2 years 11 months ago

But it sure does speak to how hard you got hit.

AddyMac
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AddyMac
2 years 11 months ago

Looking for command metrics is hazy. I’ve had a great time though, looking at strike-zone vector charts, sort of speak, on BrooksBaseball.net, and only looking at % of FASTBALLS ONLY thrown to certain quadrants of the zone.

IE–Pitcher X threw Y% of fastballs to ‘vector 7’ of the strike zone, which is the “down and in” square to a RHB if the strike zone is divided into nine “quadrants”.

Dan L
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Dan L
2 years 11 months ago

This doesn’t exactly pass the smell test. Not only does a pitcher’s BABIP vary rather dramatically from year to year, but here are a few of the starters who were among the Top 20 in BABIP this year, among qualified players: Justin Verlander (6th), Felix Hernandez (10th), Anibal Sanchez (17th), Adam Wainwright (19th), AJ Burnett (20th). As to the idea that lower line-drive rates make for a more “unhittable” pitcher, Wainwright had a line-drive rate of 23.4%, and Clayton Kershaw had a line-drive rate of 22.7%, both closer to Gausman than to Wacha and both pretty unhittable. All this is to say that BABIP and LD% aren’t entirely predictive of hittability, and that even within a season, we’re still dealing with a relatively small sample size, especially where guys like Gausman and Wacha are concerned.

coldseat
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coldseat
2 years 11 months ago

Babip & ld% is all that is available, but I also wondered why the same people who scored what a ld is don’t just score balls that are hit hard/squared up v. the ones that are not. I’d rather know that a kid hit a hard ground ball v a soft ld. Is the quality of contact what ld & babip is trying to get to anyhow?

Stefan K.
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Stefan K.
2 years 11 months ago

I wonder which of these seven the Cardinals would have selected ahead of Wacha, if the were not drafted by slot 19.

Pirates Hurdles
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Pirates Hurdles
2 years 11 months ago

Yeah that would be the more relevant thing. Baseball America had Wacha 4th (#8 overall) behind Zimmer, Gausman, Appel. That said, Giolito, Fried, and Stroman were the immediate next 3 guys after Wacha.

The mainstream press sure does love these type of time machine, softy analyses.

cass
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cass
2 years 11 months ago

What we also don’t know is 1) how good these other pitchers would be if they were pitching to Yadier Molina and 2) how good Wacha would be if he were not pitching to Yadier Molina.

Mateo
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Mateo
2 years 11 months ago

Fair point, but note that Wacha’s performance in the minors was great and had nothing to do with Molina, and he was pitching at a higher level than most of the guys on the list.

Tman
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Tman
2 years 11 months ago

A very interesting question indeed. I would note though not all pitchers that Yaddy catches perform like Wacha. A more interesting question may be” Why has St. Louis produced so many great prospects in the last couple years”? Maybe the truth lies in the way the cardinals scout AND prepare young players…..

TRace
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TRace
2 years 10 months ago

Part of wacha’s success has been increased velocity. Reports out of college were were 89 -97. Stl advocates unlocking velocity with young pitchers (see e.g., Lance Lynn mechanical adjustment in AAA). No doubt wacha’s velocity was always there; more than likely all that was needed was some sort of strength training/long toss program. A mechanical adjustment is possible, though. Whatever the cause, the effect is a tighter (and higher) range, which has increased effectiveness.

Reds Fan
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Reds Fan
2 years 11 months ago

Painful to see the Reds could have had Wacha … but instead went with the pitcher who (as of now at least) is looking like the least valuable of the lot.

Flip flopping those picks would sure help offset the widening gap between the two organizations!

83champ
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83champ
2 years 11 months ago

Travieso is raw, but has potential. This was his first real season in pro ball, so some off-the-field adjustments are to be expected, which will affect on-field performance. There was possibly a sign-ability factor as well. Long way to go before rendering judgement.

SteveD3
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SteveD3
2 years 11 months ago

Wacha didnt just become good because Molina catches him, he didnt catch him in the minors. Sometimes talet slips.

Gio
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Gio
2 years 11 months ago

Next let’s go over the players that the Brewers have drafted over the past 7 years and turned into good major leaguers… actually that was a pretty short list.

Hurtlockertwo
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Hurtlockertwo
2 years 11 months ago

You could also look at the six pitchers (and 14 players) taken in front of Jose Fernanadez in 2011.

Bip
Member
Member
Bip
2 years 11 months ago

Here’s a thing: We don’t even know how good Wacha is. As if a good half-season and great postseason run is all we need to know to conclude he’s going to be the next big thing.

This type of retrospective analysis is always dumb, especially so since we don’t know if one of the above will be better than Wacha, and especially especially so since we don’t even know how good Wacha will really be. 18 teams are not dumb and one of them would have drafted him if he was clearly as good as he appears right now.

83champ
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2 years 11 months ago

When Tim Lincecum made his big league debut, the Dodgers had a player drafted before him at low A Midwest League: Clayton Kershaw. Patience…

coldseat
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coldseat
2 years 11 months ago

I thought that’s the whole point; to see which team’s draft war room proved correct?

This is not directed to anyone in particular, but there seems to be a refusal to look back after results to guage who scouted/evaluated the best, but then there seems to be almost no questioning the various prospect list as a guage of the same?

motownrob
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motownrob
2 years 11 months ago

how bout two pitchers drafted in the 1st from the same high school!

BenRevereDoesSteroids
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BenRevereDoesSteroids
2 years 11 months ago

I remember talking about that when I watched the draft. I think they said that one of them made a name for himself his junior year, and then had to sit out his senior year with injury while the other had his breakout year. Pretty amazing, though, when you think of the 1000+ players selected every year that two would be HIGHSCHOOL teammates.

BenRevereDoesSteroids
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BenRevereDoesSteroids
2 years 11 months ago

*that is HIGHSCHOOL teammates in the first round.

Bip
Member
Member
Bip
2 years 11 months ago

Not quite the same, but Clayton Kershaw and Matthew Stafford were high school football teammates.

Jim
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Jim
2 years 8 months ago

wscg
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wscg
2 years 11 months ago

Other weird thing is that Harvard-Westlake is a relatively small, super elite prep school in West Los Angeles, known more for being full of movie star’s kids than being an athletic powerhouse. Two kids in one draft is bizarre.

Bud
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Bud
2 years 10 months ago

You mean that the lib movie stars send their kids to elite prep schools rather than the government schools? Say it ain’t so.

blue
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blue
2 years 11 months ago

Day after the draft, St. Louis would have traded Wacha + something for Zimmer and Gausmann (and Appel if they thought they could sign him).

Adam
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Adam
2 years 11 months ago

Two words: Tyler. Naquin.

Signed, an Indians fan.

Professor Ross Eforp
Member
Professor Ross Eforp
2 years 11 months ago

Look, there is no denying that almost every team in baseball probably now wishes they had drafted Michael Wacha (except definitely the Twins who snagged Byron Buxton at #2 and probably Astros who snagged Carlos Correa at #1), but MLB is not the NFL.

Naquin signed for less money than Wacha did and the Indians were able to save $500M against their bonus pool ($1.75MM vs. $2.25MM). Wacha signed for the amount that his pick gained in the bonus pool ($1.9MM).

The Indians then went over the bonus pool amount by $160M to get Mitch Brown and over by $460M to sign D’Von McClure. This isn’t an exhaustive list as the Cardinals also managed to go $1MM over on Carson Kelly. I’m just pointing out the give and take at play.

Now, do I wish that the Indians had signed Wacha regardless of who else they were able to sign? Hell yes I do. Hitting like the Cardinals have on Wacha basically makes a draft.

Paul
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Paul
2 years 11 months ago

The Cardinals did not draft Waucha. He was a player that was acquired in the Albert Puhols deal.

Professor Ross Eforp
Member
Professor Ross Eforp
2 years 11 months ago

They still drafted him, but it is definitely a double score that they not only did not sign Pujols but were able to take Wacha with this pick. He certainly would have been off the board if they did not have this pick.

Softballer
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Softballer
2 years 11 months ago

Your spelling is maybe worse than your knowledge. As you will have heard many times, Pujols left as a free agent. There was no “deal”. Wacha was drafted with a draft pick that the Cardinals got as compensation for Pujols signing. That draft pick was used by the Cardinals. There’s probably video somewhere of Selig announcing that “with the 19th pick the St. Louis Cardinals select Michael Wacha, a pitcher from Texas A&M.”

TRace
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TRace
2 years 10 months ago

Nope…i’m pretty sure that one of the conditions of the pujols contract was requiring every team in front of the #19 comp pick to pass on wacha. ;)

Todd
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Todd
2 years 11 months ago

The thing that bothered me about McCarver’s comment isn’t even that drafting is difficult and hindsight makes it so much easier. It’s that he didn’t even consider the possibility of HS pitchers. No one taking a HS pitcher ahead of Wacha would have reason to think that pitcher would beat Wacha to the majors.

McCarver is dumb, what’s new.

Bip
Member
Member
Bip
2 years 11 months ago

Was this article prompted by a McCarver comment? I heard this nonsense from Morosi after game 2 of the NLCS, and his original comment may have been earlier than that.

Bud
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Bud
2 years 10 months ago

McCarver is not dumb. He has forgotten more about baseball than you will ever know.

Tanned Tom
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Tanned Tom
2 years 10 months ago

Okay I get it, you’ve a man crush on him. But to everyone else he’s the most annoying, know-it-all announcer going. What really grates about his personality is that he so clearly is not as smart as he thinks he is. Good riddance douchebag.

GigaGiantsFan
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GigaGiantsFan
2 years 11 months ago

Wacha was intended to be the Giants 1st rounder but the Cardinals got him from the pick they recieve from the Angels for signing the biggest albatross in baseball history and the pick the Giants ended up selecting, who was supposed to have Wacha’s development path, had a velocity drop in A ball according to klaw.

You have to admire the Cardinals for their ability to evaluate talent, but truth is that organization is really lucky too. Most guys like Carpenter, Freese, Craig, Adams never make MLB, let alone be solid regulars in The Show. They’re almost a backwards organization: most teams focus on developing stars and signing fringe guys to fill in the gaps. The Cardinals only focus on the fringe but they turn them into regulars and get the stars through trade (Waino, Holliday) or free agency (Beltran).

Richard
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Richard
2 years 11 months ago

If an organization unearths late-round gems consistently, it’s not luck, any more than a poker player who manages to win more with bad hands than anybody else is lucky.

channelclemente
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channelclemente
2 years 11 months ago

I have to agree with you, and add the Cardinals development philosophy and system certainly played a part in the product you see on the field. Just think, Maddox at Texas could have got his hands on him. Then we might be discussing Wacca in the opposite light.

TRace
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TRace
2 years 10 months ago

I think you’re missing the point. Certainly organizations look for future stars in drafting, but the ultimate goal is to find players who will become major league players. This requires drafting players like Jay, Craig, M. Carpenter who obviously had tools to make it to the majors, but had question marks regarding the other areas of their games. Development saw that either those areas were shored up or the players were moved to positions which accentuated their skill sets.

The Cardinal model is obviously working with a roster full of “lucky” examples. Thus, since they have done it on purpose, it has not been luck.

Brent Anderson
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Brent Anderson
2 years 11 months ago

Three of the pitchers were HS. Carpenter was an original Blue Jay along with Halladay and Kelvim Escobar. All three in their early 20’s. Supposed to be mainstays of a great staff for years to come. Funny how things change for a team. Will Cardinals keep all their good arms for a long time?
McCarver even excused Holliday for striking out on a pitch very high out of the strike zone. Too close to take!

Bud
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Bud
2 years 10 months ago

The Cardinals have a history over the last decade or so of not being able to keep their good arms for a long time. Milwaukee alone wound up with two or three of the Cardinals’ good pitchers.

TheLastClown
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TheLastClown
2 years 11 months ago

McCarver is ridiculous man. “There aren’t many players who are winners without the numbers to back them up. Jonny Gomes is a winner.”

Also from Game 2.

tom s.
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tom s.
2 years 11 months ago

I’m wondering how helpful it is to talk about Baseball America rankings at this point; it’s only been ~16 months since the Wacha draft, so mid-season draft rankings still give guys huge credits for being drafted in the first round. A year’s worth of data isn’t really going to shake someone’s placement.

In other words, does it tell us much at all to cite the rankings, if being ranked is basically synonymous with “was drafted in the first round in 2012”? If Fried (just as an example, not to pick on him) can throw for a full season with a K/BB of less than 2 and still be #41, then I just don’t think the rankings tell us much for whether this group has done well or badly.

Appel, Gausman, and Giolito are the only unranked guys on this list. Gausman was unranked because he’d played in the majors. Appel was redrafted and not considered, and Giolito had been rebounding from TJ surgery and hadn’t yet pitched in pro ball.

Noxious Quizmaster
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Noxious Quizmaster
2 years 11 months ago

Q: What two things do Jackie Davidson, Wayne Dotson, Stan Hilton, Erik Sonberg, and Rich Stoll have in common? (Answer at the bottom.)

I don’t think Wacha’s current dominance (and clear long term ace potential) were actually all that apparent on Draft Day, 2012. He was a fairly skinny 20-year-old with plus command & composure, a very good changeup, no above average third pitch, and merely okay velocity typically described as 91 to 93-or-94. Jon Garland was the ubiquitous comp — no doubt due in part to the physical resemblance. It wasn’t unreasonable to project Wacha as a solid 3/4 with a chance to be a 2/3.

But St. Louis put him in the pen post-draft, where he gained 3-4 MPH rather than the more standard 1-3 ticks. Moreover, upon Wacha’s return to rotation duties, they encouraged him to try to maintain as much of the velocity bump as comfortably possible, rather than overtly “pacing himself” at lower, collegiate-level speeds. And sometimes he retains more of that plus-plus velocity than other times… with interesting results.

To wit (all 4-seam V courtesy of BrooksBB):

Wacha at 95, 4 starts, 30 IP, 9 hits, 1 ER

Now, you can choose to say that Wacha at sub-94 MPH has allowed 17 earned runs over 32 innings in his age 21 season, and that’s the player most scouts quite reasonably thought the Cardinals were drafting.

Or you can choose to say that Wacha at 93+ has permitted just 9 earned runs on 28 hits over 66 innings, and that on his better days that’s the pitcher he’ll be going forward. I think the Cardinals would rather look at it that way.

Answer: The above five pitchers (1)never got to the majors, and (2)represent half of the pitchers drafted ahead of Roger Clemens thirty years ago — when he was also chosen 19th in the draft.

bud
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bud
2 years 11 months ago

3) Did not use PEDs

Tony Bosch
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Tony Bosch
2 years 11 months ago

How do you know whether thy used PEDs or not?

Noxious Quizmaster
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Noxious Quizmaster
2 years 11 months ago

What the hell; that’s twice now this has happened. Sorry. Anyway, the part that was somehow cut out of the above text: Wacha at <93 MPH, 3 starts, 15 IP, 27 hits, and 12 ER. Blecch. But at 93-94, 3 starts, 17 IP, 11 hits, and just 5 ER. And at 94-95, also 3 starts, 19 innings, 8 hits, and just 3 earned runs. His results at 95+ are above. Again, apologies.

rick sharp
Guest
rick sharp
2 years 11 months ago

CANT WE JUST APPRECIATE THAT ALL OF THE TALENTS DRAFTED ARE QUALITY ATHLETES, AND BE HAPPY FOR THEM ALL INSTEAD OF TRYING TO PICK THINGS APART.I WISH ALL OF THEM TO ACHIEVE GREATNESS AND TO STAY HEALTHY. I AM A CARDINAL FAN SO I APPRECIATE WACHA’S CONTRIBUTIONS IMMENSELY.

I Agree Guy
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I Agree Guy
2 years 11 months ago

LOUD NOISES!

Roy Hibbert
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Roy Hibbert
2 years 11 months ago

lawl wacha has 2 good pitches. developing another pitch is unlikely. Bullpen =]

Ian
Guest
Ian
2 years 11 months ago

I might be wrong, but Nolan Ryan only had two effective pitches and his career turned out pretty well.

jmoultz
Member
jmoultz
2 years 10 months ago

Wacha possesses no plus-plus pitches and barely has two plus pitches so his odds of continued success are not very good. This current run is fun so we should enjoy it but it’s certainly no predictor of future or sustained success. The premise of this article is correct in that most of the pitchers that were taken before Wacha have higher ceilings and I’m sure several MLB teams would still take many of them over Wacha, now and in that draft. At best I’d still have to call him a #3 who’s looked like a #2 at times.

Nolan Ryan threw a plus-plus FB and a plus curve and even developed an average changeup later in his career so comparing him to Wacha isn’t exactly apples-to-apples.

Darby
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Darby
2 years 11 months ago

WACHA-WACHA-WACHA—-GO CARDS !!!

Dwayne Carter
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Dwayne Carter
2 years 11 months ago

I liked Joe Morgan as a broadcaster. Once advanced metrics are developed for broadcasters…as soon as I heard McCarver say that, I predicted a FanGraphs article.

awalnoha
Member
awalnoha
2 years 11 months ago

To quote the great prospect analysis of Adam Horovitz

Wacha, Wacha, Wacha want….

It is at least as relevant as McCarver.

Green Mountain Boy
Guest
Green Mountain Boy
2 years 11 months ago

Thankfully, it appears I’ll outlive McCarver’s final stint on Fox. ANYONE at ANY TV network who hired this man to do color comentary over the last 30 years should have been summarily fired.

And people ask, why don’t kids watch or play baseball like they used to? Because even they can tell McCarver is a fossil and his commentary is gratuitous. He doesn’t give anyone the slightest reason to explore the game further. He makes it BORING.

Fox would be well served to replace him with someone like Eric Byrnes, whose passion for and knowledge of the game shines through every time I see him on MLBN, and just let him be himself. Might help Fox’s ratings, you think?

Feeding the Abscess
Guest
Feeding the Abscess
2 years 11 months ago

They’ll probably hire Harold Reynolds

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