Foul Ground Home Field Advantage

By no means am I a veteran of the press box. But already I’ve tapped into a strange phenomenon that may be universal to all baseball writers — I’m not rooting for a team, I’m rooting for my story.

For example. Going into the American League Division Series, I decided I would do some research on the home field advantage offered by the extensive foul ground in Oakland. After gathering some quotes — easy, considering the optics of Josh Donaldson, running forever for a foul ball — I was ready for a Game-Changing Moment. A foul ball over the bullpen mound in the late innings. A missed foul ball by the Tigers. I was rooting for a foul ball.

I didn’t get my big foul ball, or you’d have gotten this story, with a much different lede, weeks ago instead of now. Looking back through my numbers, though, there was a surprise. More the kind of surprise you get when you turn on the television in the fall and get a random Arizona Fall League game. More that than the sort of surprise that Nate McLouth got when Donaldson did this:

The stage was set for this sort of surprise during the ALDS. Bob Melvin said he chose Daric Barton for a few of those games because the first baseman “covers a lot of ground” and would help specifically because of the foul ground in Oakland. “You have a hundred-something feet out there,” Barton said. Barton added “there’s a lot of outs out there,” but admitted that “they say it’s worth about ten-to-fifteen points on your batting average.” He laughed about that one, though — that cuts both ways and “it’s so frustrating.” But Barton felt that he knew the ground well and that there were plenty of times when he got to balls that people felt were automatically in the seats.

Watch that highlight of Donaldson, and listen to Barton talk about how he can avoid the mound, and about plays like the one where Trevor Crowe went after a foul ball and fell on the bullpen mound, and it’s easy to think: Oakland must get home field advantage from their intimate knowledge of the foul ground.

Turns out, not so much. Check out the home and away foul ball outs by stadium, 2012-2013:

Home Team TFO RTFO HTFO HFA
Phillies 204 119 85 34
Mets 215 123 92 31
Twins 191 110 81 29
Padres 158 92 66 26
Dbacks 207 112 95 17
Rangers 188 99 89 10
Giants 218 112 106 6
Angels 188 96 92 4
Brewers 210 107 103 4
Athletics 398 200 198 2
Cubs 149 75 74 1
Indians 173 87 86 1
Red Sox 165 83 82 1
Yankees 209 105 104 1
Royals 238 119 119
Astros 194 96 98 -2
Reds 182 90 92 -2
White Sox 222 109 113 -4
Rockies 139 67 72 -5
Braves 214 104 110 -6
Tigers 228 110 118 -8
Dodgers 165 78 87 -9
Pirates 157 70 87 -17
Mariners 270 126 144 -18
Nationals 223 102 121 -19
Rays 242 111 131 -20
Orioles 218 98 120 -22
Cardinals 204 89 115 -26
Marlins 198 86 112 -26
Blue Jays 254 103 151 -48

TFO = total foul outs in the stadium
RTFO = foul outs that occurred while the road team is batting
HTFO = foul outs that occurred while the home team was batting
HFA = RTFO – HTFO

Yeah, so Oakland, over the last two years, has played almost exactly neutral in foul grounds, despite having the largest foul ground in baseball.

Thanks to Bill Petti’s Interactive Spray Chart Tool, we can see, graphically, how different the foul grounds are compared to, say, the number one team in foul ground home field advantage: the Philadelphia Phillies.

Park_Comparison

You can’t quite blame this on personnel. According to Josh Reddick, the outfield portion of the foul ground is about the same as most parks, and he figures that it’s mostly on the first baseman and third baseman to get to these balls. The combined UZR over the last two years for the first and third baseman on the Phillies (-10) and Athletics (+31.3) has the signs reversed if you want to blame this phenomenon on the defenders on the corners. Shortstops and second basemen can get to some of those balls, too, though — the range components for the infield in Oakland (+22.4) and Philly (+24.9) tell a bit of a different story.

So let’s put the foul ground home field advantage up against the UZR infield range factors for the past two years. It doesn’t seem to match up.

Home Team HFA IF RngR
Phillies 34 -1.5
Mets 31 -1.4
Twins 29 -33.3
Padres 26 -6.9
Dbacks 17 -33
Rangers 10 17.9
Giants 6 5.5
Angels 4 34.7
Brewers 4 -21.6
Athletics 2 22.4
Cubs 1 51.6
Indians 1 -52.6
Red Sox 1 26.7
Yankees 1 -13.1
Royals -10.4
Astros -2 -42.1
Reds -2 43.1
White Sox -4 -19
Rockies -5 -27.7
Braves -6 18.3
Tigers -8 -29.7
Dodgers -9 64.6
Pirates -17 23.1
Mariners -18 -3.1
Nationals -19 20.5
Rays -20 57
Orioles -22 28.5
Cardinals -26 -46.9
Marlins -26 -45.5
Blue Jays -48 -26

So if it’s not about the field itself, and it’s not about the interaction between the field and the specific players about it, is there another source of foul-ground-inspired home field advantage? What about day/night splits? Perhaps some players know their foul ground better and can navigate it better at night?

Home Team HFA Night
Padres 27
Phillies 25
Dbacks 21
Mets 14
Twins 14
Angels 7
Rangers 6
Dodgers 3
Giants 1
Red Sox 1
Rockies 1
Royals -1
Pirates -3
Tigers -3
Athletics -4
Braves -4
Astros -5
Reds -5
Indians -6
Brewers -7
Nationals -7
Cubs -10
Rays -10
White Sox -10
Yankees -11
Orioles -18
Cardinals -21
Mariners -24
Marlins -26
Blue Jays -37

Well, it works in Philadelphia for some reason. Guess I’ve got a story for the next time Cody Asche ranges deep into foul territory in a big spot in a big night game for the Phillies next year.



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With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here or at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris.


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xenc
Member
xenc

I don’t know if you can actually check statistics on this, but is it possible that a team like the Phillies had fewer fly ball fouls in their home foul ground than their opponents?

Brandon
Guest
Brandon

Yeah, it seems this could likely be caused by a pretty direct correlation of IFFB rate.

MustBunique
Member
Member

I thought that would be the case, too. A quick look yielded these results (IFFB, home split):

Athletics,0.131
Blue Jays,0.116
Braves,0.116
Mets,0.112
Royals,0.111
Marlins,0.109
White Sox,0.108
Yankees,0.108
Orioles,0.107
Rays,0.105
Mariners,0.105
Dodgers,0.103
Phillies,0.101
Astros,0.101
Rangers,0.1
Pirates,0.096
Red Sox,0.095
Twins,0.094
Cardinals,0.092
Tigers,0.09
Nationals,0.088
Padres,0.086
Cubs,0.086
Angels,0.084
Rockies,0.083
Reds,0.081
Brewers,0.08
Diamondbacks,0.08
Giants,0.079
Indians,0.071

There doesn’t appear on first look to be that strong a correlation between high Home IFFB rate and Eno’s HFA.

Brandon
Guest
Brandon

If I’m not mistaken this number would correlate to HTFO, not HFA.

HFA would correlate to (Home team IFFB rate / Away team IFFB rate).

The point is, if your team just simply hits more popups at home than whoever it is that the away team is does, then it would skew your numbers. So there is a lot of room for random error here, especially over single-year IFFB numbers.

The results of this study simply aren’t reliable since they aren’t statistically significant.

Jackson
Guest
Jackson

It may not be only correlation with the home team’s IFFB rate, but also with their opponents IFFB%. Notice how the 4 out of the top 5 NL teams in IFFB% are NL East teams. So the Phillies and Mets may play a disproportionate number of their games against high IFFB% teams.

si.or.no
Member
Member
si.or.no

Where would one get this data? I would be interesting in looking at [ HTIFFB/HTFA ] / [ RTIFFB/RTFO ]

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