Fun with zMLE

Dan Szymborski, the brain behind the popular ZiPS projections found here at FanGraphs, has put together three decades of MLE’s available for download at the click of a mouse. Talk about a fun way to kill some time while chilling in your mom’s basement. Where have you gone, Adam Hyzdu?

Perhaps at another time we’ll dig up some of the Ken Phelpses That Never Were, but for right now I want to focus in on some interesting seasons of current minor league players. Like for instance, did you know Ruben Gotay has 102 walks this season in Triple-A? This is same Ruben Gotay that has walked 60 times in 811 big league PA’s. Instead of getting a September call-up from the Arizona Diamonbacks, a team who is probably in need of a second baseman for 2010, Gotay is playing for Puerto Rico in the Baseball World Cup in Barcelona. His MLE line for 2009 was .258/.390/.402.

Shelley Duncan, the brother of Chris Duncan and son of Cardinal pitching coach Dave Duncan, has already experienced his Kevin Maas-like day in the sun a couple of summers ago, but he may deserve another look. That shot may not come with the Yankees again, but he has a nifty looking MLE: .262/.346/.508 with 28 homers in 461 at-bats.

–The Cardinals’ suffered through months of Joe Thurston with an injured Troy Glaus on the shelf. They also traded away their third baseman of the future (Brett Wallace) and traded for Mark DeRosa. DeRosa’s production has been down since coming over the NL, no thanks to a wrist injury – .240/.314/.417. 25-year old Allen Craig, who has played extensively at third base throughout his career. has an MLE line of .277/.327/.455. DeRosa and Holliday are both free agents at the end of the season. Craig just might be the Cardinals’ 2010 starting 3B or LF.

–The Rays got much more than a throw in for a PTBNL in the Scott Kazmir deal. Sean Rodriguez, a middle infielder by trade, put together a solid season in the power department, with an MLE slugging % of .456. The Rays already have a pretty solid core of infielders, but Rodriguez could provide a nice power boost off the bench for next year.

John Bowker is a mystery. For Triple-A Fresno, Bowker not only tearing the cover off of the ball, but was also walking in 18% of his plate appearances. Since being called up to the Bay, he’s doing his best Bengie Molina impersonation, drawing just one walk once in 42 plate appearances. His MLE line is .283/.385/.460. That production beats the heck out of everyone else in the Giants’ lineup save Sandoval, it’s too bad he wasn’t called up earlier, and it’s also too bad he’s not really shown much in the little playing time he has received.

Download the files for some fun, and please consider giving Dan some gratuity for his efforts.




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Erik Manning is the founder of Future Redbirds and covers the Cardinals for Heater Magazine. You can get more of his analysis and rantings in bite-sized bits by following him on twitter.


3 Responses to “Fun with zMLE”

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  1. Joe R says:

    But my hard drive is already so full of mother’s basementing and pornography.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Evan says:

    Where can I find just 2009 MLE’s?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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