Hamilton Fallout: Trade Bourjos, Trumbo, or Morales?

After losing out on Zack Greinke, the Angels decided to just take the money they had ticketed for a pitcher and sign Josh Hamilton instead. It’s certainly a bold move, and even with all of Hamilton’s red flags, he should probably project as something around a +4 win player for 2013, though of course the variance around that mark is probably larger than with most hitters. However, for the Angels to realize the full value of adding Hamilton to the roster, this can’t be their last move, because they already had an outfield full of useful players, and paying $125 million for the right to bench Mark Trumbo or Peter Boujos just doesn’t make any sense.

The Angels still have a gaping hole in their starting rotation. With Hamilton in the fold, they now have four outfielders who deserve to play regularly. A trade seems inevitable. Now, the Angels just have to decide which player to move.

Mike Trout‘s obviously not going anywhere, and Vernon Wells wouldn’t even bring a batting tee in return, so it’s likely going to come down to one of three options – Bourjos, Trumbo, or Kendrys Morales. There are only two line-up spots for those three players, and all three are good enough to be big league starter. So, who goes and who stays?

Each player comes with their own pros and cons. Let’s break them down individually.

Peter Bourjos, CF

Bourjos is an elite speed-and-defense center fielder, but then again, so is Mike Trout, and they can’t both play center field in Anaheim. But, as teams have begun to realize over the last few years, there’s nothing wrong with having two center fielders in the outfield, as range in a corner position can still save a lot of runs. Three of the four teams to make the LCS this year had a guy with center field skills playing in a corner; the Giants with Gregor Blanco, the Yankees with Ichiro Suzuki, and the Tigers with Quintin Berry. The days of every successful team having 35 homer guys in both right and left field are long gone. Bourjos and Trout can play next to each other, and it can work.

But, there are some diminishing returns associated with having a speed-and-defense guy in a corner. Corner outfielders have fewer opportunities to run balls down than center fielders. In general, Bourjos would probably be more valuable to a team that didn’t already have a star center fielder, so there’s a chance for a win-win trade with a team who can maximize Bourjos’ value. If Bourjos is a +2 to +3 win player for the Angels, maybe he’s a +3 to +4 win player for a team that can use him in center field. Unlike with Trumbo and Morales, the difference between Bourjos’ value to the Angels and to another team might be enough to make him the best guy to move.

Mark Trumbo, OF/1B

Trumbo has been something of a sabermetric whipping boy over the last few years due to his low OBPs, but he’s legitimately one of the best young power hitters in the sport, and if you look at his overall production rather than just his ability to avoid making outs, he’s graded out as an above average player in both 2011 and 2012. And, aggressive young hitters can turn into patient older hitters, with Trumbo already showing some signs of increased selectivity, as his swing rates and out-of-zone swing rates both improved last year. Of course, his contact rate also sunk, but Trumbo has shown enough to believe that he can be an above average hitter going forward, and has the potential to perhaps turn into a legitimately good bat.

However, he’s never going to be anything more than adequate in the outfield, and his long term position is probably first base or DH. If the bat doesn’t take a step forward, he might never be more than the +2.5 win guy he is now, and there are more teams looking for outfielders than looking for good-not-great first baseman – just ask Adam LaRoche. If a team views him as a capable corner outfielder, however, he could potentially fetch a nice piece in return, since power hitters are often overpaid in the free market and acquiring a cost-controlled slugger who isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2016 season could be quite enticing.

Kendrys Morales, 1B/DH

With just one year left on his contract, no ability to play the outfield, and lingering health concerns, Morales will certainly have the least amount of trade value of the three. Like Trumbo, his overly aggressive approach at the plate limits his overall offensive value, but he is a switch-hitter on a team that is mostly right-handed in the middle of their batting order, and if the Angels think he can get back to 2009 form, then he probably provides more value in 2013 than Trumbo would. Moving him and keeping both Trumbo and Bourjos might be the best long term decision, but would help them the least in 2013, as he’d likely only bring back a marginal rotation upgrade and might be a better DH for the Angels than Trumbo next year.

With both Bourjos and Trumbo, the Angels would be selling four years of team control for above average Major League players, including one league minimum year and three arbitration years. For a team with a hole in center field — hello, New York Mets — Bourjos is probably the better player, and the Angels can point to what Ben Revere just cost the Phillies as evidence that speed-and-defense center fielders are getting more valuable every year. With R.A. Dickey as the #1 trade candidate on the starting pitcher market, the Mets are almost certainly going to be team most heavily linked to the Angels, and which player gets moved might depend on their player type preference. But, don’t count out a team like the Braves, who are looking for a left fielder who can also lead off and have pitching to spare.

Adding Hamilton makes the Angels a little bit better than they already were. Giving them another valuable trade chip to fill a hole in their rotation could make this move pay off in a significant way for the Angels. In that way, the follow-up to this signing could be just as important as the signing itself.



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Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.


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Nik
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Nik
3 years 9 months ago

Bourjos can’t get on base to be a lead-off hitter and it looks like his speed doesn’t translate all that well to the base-paths.

AA
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AA
3 years 9 months ago

His speed translates extremely well on the bases – especially in extra bases.

iallm
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iallm
3 years 9 months ago

You can’t steal first base.

Ice T
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Ice T
3 years 9 months ago

Nigga please

JT
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JT
3 years 9 months ago

Why would the Braves want Bourjos for lead-off? Aren’t leadoff hitters supposed to be good at getting on base? Bourjos is more of a #9 hitter than a #1 hitter. The Braves also have a CF so they don’t need him.

AJ
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AJ
3 years 9 months ago

I suppose they could bury him at the bottom of the lineup and play him in CF with Upton in LF.

JT
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JT
3 years 9 months ago

But Frank Wren stated that Upton is their CF and he will not be moving. Thus, it would be a total waste for the Braves to get Bourjos and then play him in LF. They may as well just use Constanza in LF and not give up a valuable prospect or young pitcher.

Anon21
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Anon21
3 years 9 months ago

Yeah, Wren seemed pretty unequivocal that Upton would be the starting center fielder, even if that doesn’t make a lot of sense in light of the trade candidates available. I could see them getting in on Trumbo if they were convinced he will stick in the outfield for the duration of team control. Or maybe not; they may want to keep a spot in LF open for Uggla in 2014, and might prefer to do a LF rental this year.

JDub
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JDub
3 years 9 months ago

Moving Upton to left would marginalize his value

Spike
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Spike
3 years 9 months ago

They’ll prob move Trumbo to 3B.

rdj3video
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rdj3video
3 years 9 months ago

No way. Mike never gave that an honest effort with Trumbo last March/April. They could try it again, but I’d be surprised as Mike goes nuts over poor defense.

Spit Ball
Member
Spit Ball
3 years 9 months ago

I’m gonna back Scossia up on this on. Their is bad defense and then their is Mark Trumbo at third base. Plus what has Callaspo done to make that so important.

AA
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AA
3 years 9 months ago

Trumbo was scary bad at 3B.

fjtorres
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fjtorres
3 years 9 months ago

I’m thinking DiPoto is going to be busy on the phone; Cubs, Indians, Braves, Mets, maybe Tampa Bay… Not sure if they’d deal with Seattle.
Anybody else with pitching still looking for power or a CF?

Baltar
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Baltar
3 years 9 months ago

Tampa certainly could use power and a CF, but they are no longer overloaded with MLB pitching. They do have a lot of good pitching prospects.

Nik
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Nik
3 years 9 months ago

Dickey > what the Phillies Gave up
Revere value > Bourjos value (if you include the control years)

Dickey for Bourjos would be a TERRIBLE trade for the Mets.

rdj3video
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rdj3video
3 years 9 months ago

I agree with that. Peter probably deserves a shot to play, but I’m not totally sure his beastly speed and bunting ability on MLB2K12 will translate to real baseball in 2013.

AA
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AA
3 years 9 months ago

Bourjos actually has a bit of power.

Spike
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Spike
3 years 9 months ago

Halos would have to juice that up some but it’s a decent start for Dickey.

Turks Teeth
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Turks Teeth
3 years 9 months ago

That might be true if there were more than one year left of Dickey’s contract. There are four years left of Bourjos – and he’s cheap, cheap.

Bourjos has put up 8.3 WAR in a season and a half of plate appearances. Dickey put up 4.6 WAR last season in the only season he’s ever delivered more than 3 WAR.

I’m surprised that posters on Fangraphs of all places would fail to understand defensive value. Bourjos truly has an elite glove in centerfield.

DC
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DC
3 years 9 months ago

Exactly in which season did he put up 8.3 WAR?

Dick Almighty
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Dick Almighty
3 years 9 months ago

Hmm… Fangraphs LOVES Bourjos’ defense. For comparison’s sake, Bourjos has a career 4.2 WARP according to Baseball Prospectus. Both sites think his bat is crap; Baseball Prospectus doesn’t think his defense is as great as Fangraphs does. Not endorsing one over the other; just noting there are different takes on Bourjos’ value. That said, I think I’d prefer four years of Bourjos over one year of Dickey.

Matthias
Member
Member
3 years 9 months ago

@DC

His point was that Bourjos has only recorded about 1.5 full seasons of plate appearances in the last three years, and in that time he has accumulated 8.3 fWAR. Obviously that isn’t sustainable, but his per-plate-appearance production has been exceptional.

Turks Teeth
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Turks Teeth
3 years 9 months ago

One year left of Dickey’s contract. There are four years left of Bourjos – and he’s cheap, cheap.

Bourjos has put up 8.3 WAR in a season and a half of plate appearances. Dickey put up 4.6 WAR last season in the only season he’s ever delivered more than 3 WAR.

I’m surprised that posters on Fangraphs of all places would fail to understand defensive value. Bourjos truly has an elite glove in centerfield.

Adam Christian
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Adam Christian
3 years 9 months ago

There is no way that the Mets would give up Dickey for Bourjos alone. While Bourjos is a good young player, he really is a dime a dozen. There are more than enough players with his skill set out there for close to nothing. Is he capable of having some great years that would improve his value? Of course. But, he has not been given enough of an opportunity to show off his skills in Orange County, so his trade value should bring back maybe a number 4 or 5 pitcher, or a set up man.

Also, the Angels farm system is one of the worst in MLB, and it only got worse with the Greinke trade. I do not think they can get Dickey, but if they package some players together they might be able to get a decent number 3 type pitcher.

Deelron
Member
Deelron
3 years 9 months ago

WAR underrates knuckleballers.

MetNut
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MetNut
3 years 9 months ago

You’re absolutely right. Question is what in addition to Bourjos would DiPoto be willing to add. I’d be looking for Kole Calhoun and a pitcher, either Nick Maronde or Garrett Richards. Hold on . . I know that’s asking alot . . probably more than I should expect for just Dickey. So I’d be willing to add one or two of the Mets prospects to the mix. Also, to those who are concerned about years of control, remember that a deal for Dickey would probably come with a window to negotiate an extension, giving the Angels 3 years of control at the least.

philosofool
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philosofool
3 years 9 months ago

I don’t know if it would be great, but it would not be terrible. Dickey is a one year rental who appears to be willing to extend his contract for 2/26m. Bourjos has 4 years left on his contract and is a very good player. Dickey isn’t a sure thing and such a trade could work out well for Mets.

paqza
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paqza
3 years 9 months ago

One is a Cy Young winning starting pitcher who has a sub 3.00 ERA over the past 3 years and pitched 235 innings in 2010, 208.2 in 2011, and 233.2 in 2012. He also is the only pitcher in baseball with a 0% risk for Tommy John surgery.

The other is a speedy outfielder who has been below average offensively over the course of his career, and missed 38% of games his team played in 2012 while putting up an atrocious sub .300 OBP.

It’s pretty clear who the “surer” thing is.

marlins12
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marlins12
3 years 9 months ago

Bourjos for Nolasco. I would love that.
I would even take on Vernon Wells contract in order to get Bourjos to play CF here.

a) This team has no talent.
b) This team hasn’t spent any money anyway.

Difference between Nolasco/Wells contracts is 10 million in ’13.

The Marlins are likely not going to spend the next two offseasons so just deal with Wells contract and get a real CF’er for a change.
Sort of like an expiring contract but for two years since the Marlins aren’t likely to compete in ’13 and ’14, anyway. After that, he leaves.

From the Angels standpoint, they get their pitcher. If they’re interested in Blanton, they’d probably have some interest in Nolasco. Basically the same guy. Strike-thrower, could have better results with a better defensive team. Nolasco’s main problem has to do with shitty .BABIP’s, in part because the Marlins defense always sucks. Because this front office is clueless. Fortunately, DiPoto seems to know the value of a good defensive team.

Spit Ball
Member
Spit Ball
3 years 9 months ago

That’s funny.

chiefglockandhummer
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chiefglockandhummer
3 years 9 months ago

no one would blame you if you just stopped rooting for that team

rdj3video
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rdj3video
3 years 9 months ago

The batting tee for Wells might work the best, although that’s one expensive batting tee.

Ned Yost
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Ned Yost
3 years 9 months ago

Would love to see the Royals deal Hosmer to get Trumbo. Hoz probably needs to go back to AAA this year, then he can slide in for Kendry after his contract is up next season. Since they suddenly have about 8 fifth starters, Hosmer, Mendoza and a prospect could get it done for Trumbo methinks. They really need a legit feared power hitter in the middle of that lineup, not a big kid with a mohawk who swings at everything.

Dayton Moore
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Dayton Moore
3 years 9 months ago

Why trade for Trumbo when we can overpay Delmon Young?

Stuck in a slump
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Stuck in a slump
3 years 9 months ago

I would LOVE to see the Indians try hard for Trumbo and stick him in RF to replace Choo. The combination of youth, control, and power would help balance out the lineup with his RH bat and set the team for long term success. Once Reynolds’ deal is over, Trumbo could slide over to 1B.

JDub
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JDub
3 years 9 months ago

Reynolds AND Trumbo in the same lineup. Would pitchers have any incentive to throw strikes?

Kinsm
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Kinsm
3 years 9 months ago

Ha, you forgot about Drew Stubbs. The Indians have the first combo of 200+K hitters in history.

Pinstripe Wizard
Member
Pinstripe Wizard
3 years 9 months ago

Hey strikeouts worked for the A’s last season.

jim
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jim
3 years 9 months ago

they could trade bauer for him, because lol indians

d_i
Member
Member
d_i
3 years 9 months ago

Seeing as the Royals seem to be trying to make a run and GMDM is hearing about his Frency love, I could see tthe Royals making a run at Bourjos (and moving Cain to right) or Trumbo. Not sure exactly what it would take, but they still have bullets left to fire (though probably not ML ready starters unless LA wants Santana back or has interest in Chen/Hochevar) if they really want to go all in for the short term.

Jaker
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Jaker
3 years 9 months ago

Who DHs for Angels next year? With Hamilton’s atrocious UZR last year, does anyone see Hamilton DHing or at least splitting time with Morales there (assuming he isn’t moved)?

Mike
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Mike
3 years 9 months ago

Hamilton will play left or right which will greatly help his UZR, since he was a -12.6 in CF and a 0.2 in LF last year. The two previous years he was positive in LF as well in over 700 innings each year.

Jaker
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Jaker
3 years 9 months ago

That’s what I envision as well, it just depends on which pieces end up being moved. If Morales goes, it frees up some room at DH.

saxon
Guest
3 years 9 months ago

Then in 2014 when Morales is gone, I imagine they platoon DH with Hammy and Pujols.

Which leads me to think Dipoto might want to hold onto Trumbo.

Average_Casey
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Average_Casey
3 years 9 months ago

The Mariners fan in me says trade them all and get not that much in return. If I were the GM though, I would get rid of Morales as he’s about done and Bourjos can be a defensive replacement late in the innings and can play the outfield when Hamilton gets hurt like he does almost every year. I wouldn’t trade Trumbo as he may turn into an all star caliber player.

JDub
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JDub
3 years 9 months ago

The benefit of getting a decent starter for Bourjos far outweighs his value as a 4th outfielder.

Daniel
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Daniel
3 years 9 months ago

“The days of every successful team having 35 homer guys in both right and left field are long gone.”

Not for the Angels if they go Trout Left, Hamilton Right, Bourjos Center or Trout Center, Hamilton Left, Trumbo Right. The second one may end up having all 3 outfielders with 35+ HR. Not impossible.

jaysfan
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jaysfan
3 years 9 months ago

Trout is not hitting 35 home runs

Ryan
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Ryan
3 years 9 months ago

He hit 30 last season without playing the first month. Why couldn’t he hit 35 home runs?

HalosPhan
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HalosPhan
3 years 9 months ago

Yah he is. MARK IT.

dzburnham
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dzburnham
3 years 9 months ago

Trout just hit 30 homers as a rookie. You’re probably right that he won’t hit as many next year, but after that he’ll only get better at the plate and stronger. His isn’t the power hitter Harper will be or Stanton is obviously, and his value will come from AVG, OBP and doubles, but don’t count him out. Trout has 40-40 potential. We may never see it, but it is certainly a bet I would take.

Erik
Guest
3 years 9 months ago

Why not? He was 5 short last year, missed a month of the season, and is now a year closer to his prime…

AA
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AA
3 years 9 months ago

Trout is a legitimate 40-40 threat. Now.

jim
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jim
3 years 9 months ago

considering they didn’t have any player who hit more than 32 in 2012, combined with their home park, it’s not something you should be expecting

Cidron
Member
Cidron
3 years 9 months ago

Trouts problem is that he may have peaked.. serious, do any of you really think he will have another year like the one he just had? That was a year for the ages.

Eminor3rd
Member
Eminor3rd
3 years 9 months ago

Send Morales to the Astros for like Bud Norris or something.

HalosPhan
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HalosPhan
3 years 9 months ago

Kinda like this, but that is now an inter-divisional trade.

Pedantic Bear
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Pedantic Bear
3 years 9 months ago

More like an INTRA-divisional trade, amirite?

a seattle fan
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a seattle fan
3 years 9 months ago

So? it’s the Astros. who cares what division they’re in.

steve
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steve
3 years 9 months ago

Why would the Astros want an expiring Kendry Morales?

Pedantic Bear
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Pedantic Bear
3 years 9 months ago

This is the much better reason why such a trade wouldn’t happen.

Cleveland Cavs
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Cleveland Cavs
3 years 9 months ago

Expiring contract?? We’ll take it!

Bill
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Bill
3 years 9 months ago

Why would Houston be interested in a one year rental of anyone, regardless of cost? I guess you could make a case for Trumbo or Bourjos, but not for Morales.

William
Member
William
3 years 9 months ago

If I was the angels, I would try to send a packaged deal of bourgous AND vernon wells to a rebuilding team that could take on salary (like houston or chicago), then use the money for vernon to sign someone like edwin jackson or anibal sanchez

user1290
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user1290
3 years 9 months ago

No one is taking Vernon’s money. $42m over the next two years? The Halos would need to virtually all of that even if they threw in Boujos and got virtually nothing back.

Ask yourself this – “If the Cubs will really pay $26m of Alfonso’s $36m remaining money and accept the likes of Dominic Brown in return, how much of Vernon’s money are you going to have to pony up even if you throw in Boujos?” He’s had a combined .258/.409/.667 line over the last two years. Anybody think he’s getting significantly better as he gets older?

There’s no possibility of “using his money” for anything except paying Vernon, although I suppose if you threw in Mike Trout somebody might take on VW’s money.

dzburnham
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dzburnham
3 years 9 months ago

Mariners are a prime example. They might jump at taking on some of Well’s contract if Trumbo was involved. Unfortunately, it is inner-division and the M’s don’t really have the big league starting pitching the Angels need. Will never happen…

Kazinski
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Kazinski
3 years 9 months ago

A trade within the division is unlikely, but the Mariners trading Paxton for Trumbo might make sense for both teams, even though Paxton is not MLB ready yet. If I were the Mariners I wouldn’t give up more than that, or at least anything significantly more than that.

And that is only if the Mariners can’t sign Swisher. Trumbo is a poor mans Nick Swisher. Same positions similar power numbers and avg, but Swisher has much better defense and OBP.

dzburnham
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dzburnham
3 years 9 months ago

Trumbo has more power and potential.. but the Angels are in win-now mode, so no go on Paxton or any of the big 3, even though the Angels are digging a hole for the future. I still would rather have Swisher’s veteran, now presence than Trumbo’s potential…

a seattle fan
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a seattle fan
3 years 9 months ago

I don’t trust the Angels after Bavasi and Figgins.

Ruki Motomiya
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Ruki Motomiya
3 years 9 months ago

Could they just have Wells sit on the bench and eat it?

fjtorres
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fjtorres
3 years 9 months ago

They can even DFA him if they are willing to admit he is sunk costs.
And they should, too.

Cdub
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Cdub
3 years 9 months ago

Why DFA him? You still have to pay him. He is an above average bench Ofer still, that can be decent in all 3 OF spots in a pinch.

dzburnham
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dzburnham
3 years 9 months ago

Wells is not quite a sunk cost yet. In fact, his slash line would start on many teams in baseball, just not a contending team haha. He’s trash for the Angels, and anyone with that ridiculous contract, but since he has it, you might as well have a chance at a pinch hit home run and average defense in case injury prone Morales and Hammy fall once more…

AA
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AA
3 years 9 months ago

Putting aside Wells’ contract, he is not exactly a waste of a roster spot. Can back up CF, has power, etc.

Jason B
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Jason B
3 years 9 months ago

“He is an above average bench OFer”

Is he?

saxon
Guest
3 years 9 months ago

I imagine one of these guys will also be coupled with another young player. Maybe Conger…or Garrett Richards. Maybe Nick Maronde? I just can’t imagine the Mets doing a one for one swap with P-Bo for Dickey.

Either way I am sure Jerry Dipoto’s phone is ringing off the hook right now.

dzburnham
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dzburnham
3 years 9 months ago

It will have to be a package of course, Bourjos and a top prospect. Bourjos is equal to a lower A, high B-level prospect. Won’t be an all-star, but could be a decent starter. Dickey will require at least another prospect to make it happen. But without doubt the Angels are working on it…

budman3
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budman3
3 years 9 months ago

Bourjos and Cron for Dickey and Wilmer Flores

Jeff
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Jeff
3 years 9 months ago

Angels are kicking butt and taking names.

John Smith
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John Smith
3 years 9 months ago

Except for the winning games part of course.

spencer
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spencer
3 years 9 months ago

angels had more wins then the tigers…..

Jim Lahey
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Jim Lahey
3 years 9 months ago

Am I crazy to say this…. play Trout in LF, Bourjos in RF, and Trumbo in CF? Would the range of Trout/Bourjos on both sides make up for the shitty CF?? Also.. in other news the As/Blue Jays will be acquiring Kendry Morales

dzburnham
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dzburnham
3 years 9 months ago

Not the A’s after they beat out the Angels this year, and why would you put those guys in the corner? Your defense has to be based around the CF, Trout stays there…

Ian R.
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Ian R.
3 years 9 months ago

It would make more sense to hide Trumbo in a corner and shift the other two over to cover more ground. Say, have Trumbo play RF a few steps closer to foul territory, have Trout stand almost in left-center and have Bourjos play a little closer to right. That way, the best defensive OF is still in a position to get to the most balls and the team is set up to take advantage of both Trout’s and Bourjos’ range.

Of course, with Hamilton this idea becomes fairly moot.

Ian R.
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Ian R.
3 years 9 months ago

Another really crazy move (but potentially workable with an extreme groundballer on the ground) would be to play Trout in left-center, Bourjos in right-center and stick the nominal center fielder right behind the second base bag. Anything hit to the outfield would be trouble, but the five-man infield would be nearly impossible to sneak a grounder through and would probably even catch most low line drives.

Bill
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Bill
3 years 9 months ago

Put Bourjos in shallow Right, Trumbo and in shallow left and let Trout cover the outfield.

Sinnycal
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Sinnycal
3 years 9 months ago

Trumbo in shallow left, Bourjos in left-center, Trout in right-center, Hamilton in right, no third baseman.

Jon
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Jon
3 years 9 months ago

Unless Bourjos learns to get on base, Wells still has considerably more negative value than Bourjos has positive (in other words, if someone would take both Wells and Bourjos and give nothing in return, the Angels should jump on it). It can’t hurt to try though.

Perhaps they could find some team to fall for Wells, Bourjos, AND Morales in exchange for nothing?

B N
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B N
3 years 9 months ago

Hahaha. That’d be a fair trade if the Angels kicked in some cash! :)

BJsWorld
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BJsWorld
3 years 9 months ago

4 years of Bourjos. He’s a reasonably safe bet for 3 wins. That gives you 12 wins or $60M or so in value. His cost will most likely clock in at $15M or so. That’s $45M in surplus.

If you take on Wells and his entire contract and he does absolutely nothing for you you are out $42M.

So, Bourjos projected at 3 wins/season is roughly equivalent to DFA’ing Wells or keeping him on for limited pinch hitting duties. Obviously, if you think Bourjos is more likely a 4 WAR player than you are looking at $20M+ in surplus value even with absorbing Wells.

Not saying that a team should do that but I don’t think the idea is entirely crazy when you look at it from a value perspective.

Paul Wilson
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Paul Wilson
3 years 9 months ago

Really enjoy reading your work Dave – thanks man! Keep it up.

steve
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steve
3 years 9 months ago

Drop Wells, he’s a sunk cost.

Keep Bourjos in a fourth OF role. Hamilton’s going to get hurt sooner or later, and Bourjos doesn’t have a lot of trade value at the moment.

Preston
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Preston
3 years 9 months ago

Yeah, Hamilton and Morales both have durability issues. So it’s not hard to envision Borjous and Trumbo in the lineup together some days. If Big Mike is any kind of manager he should be able to find 500 ABs for all of Trumbo, Borjous and Morales.

Jon
Guest
Jon
3 years 9 months ago

Eh, I’d still hold onto Wells, unless they can get some team to pay at least $4 Million/year or so of his salary. You can do worse for a 25th man – he hit very well against LHP as recently as 2011, and character-wise he can’t be beat (yes – I know, I know, but what I mean is he’d essentially be acting as a coach).

He can DH and pinch hit occasionally against lefties, fill in when an OF goes down, and be a good mentor. He was always one of my favorite players to hear speak.

BJsWorld
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BJsWorld
3 years 9 months ago

I’ve never understood this desire to DFA guys either. You are already paying for him. As long as he isn’t a distraction and isn’t keeping somebody off the team let him ride the pine. He still has some value in a limited role.

AA
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AA
3 years 9 months ago

There are some guys who should absolutely be DFA’d. Juan Uribe, for example.

fjtorres
Guest
fjtorres
3 years 9 months ago

At best, Wells is insurance against nagging injuries.
But roster spots are limited and a 4A OF that can be shuttled in from the minors could give you what Wells does in case of injury.
It is a zero-sum game; every AB Wells gets comes at the expense of a better player.
Now, say you eat 90% of the salary, what team would take him and give him ABs? The Marlins, maybe. Not Houston, not Seattle, not the Cubs (if they’re bidding for Sanchez they’re dreaming of non-suckitude)…
If you can’t find a trade for even a minor league scrub and the guy offers you nothing of value…
Well, that’s what DFA is for.
It’s not as if “good guy” Wells is willing to be outrighted to AAA for the good of the team and be the 4A guy riding the shuttle.

Alex
Guest
Alex
3 years 9 months ago

The Angels are clearly a win-now team and most of their top prospects are blocked for the foreseeable future. I wonder if this is the team the Mets get their “monster” package from. Bourjos, Cron, Calhoun for Dickey and Wilmer Flores?

Rilke metro
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Rilke metro
3 years 9 months ago

How about Bourjos+Conger+SP(Williams/Richards) = David Price?

Alex
Guest
Alex
3 years 9 months ago

I highly doubt that the Rays are trying to trade their ace to a fellow contender…If he is available at all, unlikely, he would most assuredly be going to the NL.

Dick Almighty
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Dick Almighty
3 years 9 months ago

Not even close to enough for Dave Price.

fjtorres
Guest
fjtorres
3 years 9 months ago

And with Shields gone, Price isn’t moving until Moore matures. It’s not like the Rays are rebuilding; they want to win now.

LK
Guest
LK
3 years 9 months ago

What team do you root for? It’s really difficult to tell since your analysis seems so objective.

Rilke metro
Guest
Rilke metro
3 years 9 months ago

From an Angels perspective I wouldn’t do Bourjos-Dickey.

Alex
Guest
Alex
3 years 9 months ago

Why exactly? Bourjos was struggling to get at bats last season before the Hamilton signing. He has value to the Mets as a half-way decent CF. The Angels offense looks downright scary right now, but there are serious question marks past Weaver in that rotation. Dickey may be the piece that puts them over the top.

BJsWorld
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BJsWorld
3 years 9 months ago

The situation with AB’s hasn’t changed. Sure they brought in Hamilton but they swapped out Hunter. If anything, Bourjos could reasonably expect to get more AB’s given Hamilton’s injury history.

In any event – Bourjos projects to have somewhere (conservatively) near $25M worth of surplus value over his next 4 years. If the Angels sign Dickey there is little chance that he provides that same value. Dickey would need to be a 6 WAR pitcher. Not going to happen.

Now, if the Angels could extend Dickey at a reasonable rate (say 2/24) then the deal has the potential to be more equitable. As it stands now, the Angels lose on this deal when you talk about absolute value.

However, the deal makes a lot of contextual sense. The Mets don’t need Dickey’s 4 WAR 2013 season. They can drop in a replacement level pitcher and not have it impact their prospects for the post-season. The Angels are definitely in a win now mode. Given what both teams are facing for 2013, a deal like this makes sense. The Angels actually lose in overall value BUT they trade from a surplus and fix a glaring hole. The Mets are probably worse off in 2013 but it doesn’t matter much. They also have their starting CF’er for the next 3 years beyond that.

KS
Guest
KS
3 years 9 months ago

This Orioles fan is lusting after Trumbo. He’s just what the O’s need, a young power hitting 1B/DH to replace the recently departed Mr. Strikeout+LowAverage. And they have excess starting pitchers. DD claims other teams value the O’s young pitchers, let’s see if he can pull off something….

Ivan Grushenko
Guest
Ivan Grushenko
3 years 9 months ago

Trumbo for Arrieta?

Bill
Guest
Bill
3 years 9 months ago

I think this deal works for both teams. Arrieta certainly still has worlds of potential, but the rotation is soon to be very crowded in Baltimore with Bundy and Gausman on their way. The Halos aren’t going to get a better pitcher than this for Trumbo, but if they can get Dickey or similiar in a deal that includes Trumbo, Bourjos, Morales, I think they would go this route instead.

Crumpled Stiltskin
Guest
3 years 9 months ago

The Angels or any team looking to trade guys of the caliber of Trumbo or Bourjos, guys with serious flaws who are still overall good players should have a major stumbling block in Texas. If I was running a major league team, I wouldn’t make any such trade until Texas sorted out what it was doing with the whole Andrus/Profar/Kinsler situation and Beltre/Olt/Moreland situation.

Really, an Upton for Andrus trade made too much sense not to happen. The only thing I can see is that they feel Leonys Martin can adequately handle cf and is ready for the majors. Or they are planning on moving one of the middle infielders there? But they need to do something to since they have too many major league ready ball players for two few positions.

For teams with holes in both the infield and outfield, it seems that Texas would still be the ideal trading partner. And for teams looking for outfielders, I’d definitely take a run at potential buy-cheap candidates like Upton (no way he’s going to ever sign another contract with Arizona) and Mike Stanton.

Obviously, Bourjos and Trumbo have value but the Angels seem more likely to extract it at the trade deadline, after some of the larger pieces have moved off the board. Though of course, stranger things have happened with trades in baseball, perhaps two or three times in the last month, as impatient teams look to “strike while the iron is hot.”

deezy333
Guest
deezy333
3 years 9 months ago

Morales and Conger for Niemann and Lobaton?

Cody
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Cody
3 years 9 months ago

Trumbo for Vargas? Vargas does have 600 innings of above replacement starting pitching in the last 3 years. Swisher isn’t going to happen. I think nobody who hits for power will sign with the M’s again. Beltre/Sexton was the last.

Phightin21
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Phightin21
3 years 9 months ago

I would really like Trumbo in the Phillies outfield and as a 1B in two or three years. But I don’t think the Phillies got anything to give up, the ANgels look for

AA
Guest
AA
3 years 9 months ago

The presumption that Bourjos would play a corner with the Angels is a poor one. Trout would be moved into a corner. Bourjos is better defensively in every way, except perhaps how far over the fence Trout can get. There is a reason that Scioscia would shift Trout when he subbed Bourjos in for defense.

If they can pull value for Trumbo, the better deal for the Angels is to trade him and play Bourjos in CF. Probably want to put Trout in LF and Hamilton in RF, as Trout’s arm isn’t as good.

tz
Guest
tz
3 years 9 months ago

What about Trout for Price, McGee, and Archer?

Seriously, if you’re trying to win now, and your biggest goal was re-signing Greinke, why not make a winning bid for Price (subject to him signing an extension) and get some good young pitching depth in return.

hernandez17
Member
hernandez17
3 years 9 months ago

Given how important CF defense is, I would imagine there will be several teams in the hunt for him. But he’s been rumored to be on the move for a while now. Angels should jump on the first offer of a serviceable starter they get for Bourjos. Dickey may be aiming a little high, but they should flip him for pitching. That rotation will be their undoing as it stands right now.

fjtorres
Guest
fjtorres
3 years 9 months ago

What the Angels need is a good number 3 pitcher.
Ideally another #2 but a 3 is the minimum. Could be a guy with a higher ceiling coming off a bad year (say Masterson) or it could be an older player on a short term run (Dickey/Garza-type).
Top choice might be a Sanchez who’ll “only” cost money.
Or if money is in fact an issue, an Edwin Jackson or a trade.
(It’s not as if the team was actually *bad* last year; the slow start just killed them.)
They do need some quality innings in the middle of the rotation so a workhorse would be a better fit than a younger pitcher.
On those terms, trading Bourjos just get the job done.

TK
Guest
TK
3 years 9 months ago

If the Mets just want an strong defensive CF who can’t hit, they can bring up Matt Den Dekker. He’s a lefty, but other than that trading for Bourjos would trading for something they believe they already have, even if he might be a year away.

The tricky part about this situation is the Mets could easily and would happily sign Dickey to a couple year extension for 12-13M/yr if they don’t get what they want, so from their perspective they’re giving up on three years of Dickey, yet the trade partners are probably only getting one year of him.

YABooble
Guest
YABooble
3 years 9 months ago

How about Trout and Wells to the Phillies for Halladay, Lee, and a batting tee to be named later?

Pinstripe Wizard
Member
Pinstripe Wizard
3 years 9 months ago

Can we change it to a batting tee to be named later accompanied with a Tom Emanski/Fred McGriff video?

Pinstripe Wizard
Member
Pinstripe Wizard
3 years 9 months ago

The Angels should sign Michael Bourn to go with their ensemble of CFs. When they play the A’s, I vote they play without fences and play slow pitch softball style. Both teams could put 5 CFs out there and really go and rob some deep shots.

KS
Guest
KS
3 years 9 months ago

I’d pay for that! Hell, I’d even go to a game in Oakland for that!!!

Frank Sinatra
Guest
Frank Sinatra
3 years 9 months ago

Rays would be mildly interested, though probably more so in Morales. That would give them Zobrist (S), Longoria (R), Morales (S – left side best), Joyce (L), Jennings (R) and Morales could DH most days.

I don’t know what Morales contract is or years, but isn’t he a FA next year? If so, don’t expect too much back.

Jeff
Guest
Jeff
3 years 9 months ago

Minor point here, but Quintin Berry does not have CF defense skills. Takes horrible routes, but his speed allows him to make some spectacular catches that should have been routine. SSS defensive metrics agree with me.

Bob LobLaw
Guest
Bob LobLaw
3 years 9 months ago

Bourjos for Mike Minor. Roll the Dice on Teheran and Delgado as your #4 and #5 knowing Beachy will come in to save the day midseason if necessary.

NateW
Guest
NateW
3 years 9 months ago

Borjous can fill the role of a 4th OF just fine, he’s inexpensive still. A defensive replacement for Trumbo late in games and some starts when Hamilton needs days off or DH days. Morales will be the most day DH.

And that leaves Wells rotting on the bench… The Angels are probably wise to just hold only everyone unless a trade blows them away. Hopefully the Mets don’t get stupid and offer Dickey for Borjous and Conger.

iallm
Guest
iallm
3 years 9 months ago

I’d keep em all.

I don’t know whether trout will hit 40 home runs, but I gauran-dam-tee you one of these guys is gonna miss at least a month next season.

And if you trade one away, that will be the one who dont get hurt.

John Rhee
Guest
John Rhee
3 years 9 months ago

Vernon Wells would be a great DH for the Seattle Mariners or Peter Bourjos and Kendry Morales at outfield as they can use some help on offense. Angels can alone address the need at relief pitching by acquiring Erasmo Ramirez, starting pitcher James Paxton, infielder Alex Liddi or Brendan Ryan, and a player to be named later.

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