Has Matt Wieters “Finally” Arrived?
The Baltimore Orioles are off to a hot start, and are currently leading the American League East by a game over Tampa Bay and New York. It almost certainly will not last — raise your hand if you think the Orioles’ pitching staff will end the year with their current 3.60 ERA — but at least it is a short period of fun for the fans. It is not simply that some Baltimore pitchers have gotten off to good starts. The Orioles currently have three hitters with a seasonal wOBA of around .450: outfielders Adam Jones (.447) and Nolan Reimold (.457), and also former future franchise savior Matt Wieters (.447). Jones and Reimold are surprises, of course, but this is exactly what one would expect from the rookie catcher after his domination of the minors.
Oh, wait, Wieters is actually in his fourth year in the majors. His current .308/.413/.641 slash line might be a bit higher than what was expected of him in his 2009 rookie debut, but without singling anyone out, it is not that much higher that some had him projected back then. We all know that 2012 is a small sample, but is there a sense in which Matt Wieters might finally be “arriving?” Only if you are one of those people who did not realize that he was an excellent player prior to this season.
I should be honest and say that I do not have a great concept of what the “average fan” (whatever that means) thinks of Wieters. I suspect many fans, while not thinking of him as a bust, think of him as a good role player who they thought could be something more. It should be admitted, too, that in earlier seasons his offense did not live up to expectations laid on him prior to his major league debut.
However, even if he was not exactly Lance Berkman with the ability to play good defense as a catcher (more on that in a minute), as some thought he would be, his offense was actually good for a catcher right from the start. A .330 wOBA in 2009 was a bit below average in the Orioles’ park (94 wRC+), but for a catcher, that was very good. His plate approach was a bit problematic — he had a below average walk rate and a lot of strikeouts, but again, he was a catcher and a rookie. While his approach improved a bit in 2010, regression from the previous season’s .356 BABIP caught up with him. I suspect that the frustrations with Wieters’ bat stem largely from the 2010 season and its .303 wOBA. Again, that would be okay for a catcher, but whatever his other virtues, Wieters was expected to be more than a guy who hit like a typical catcher.
The main culprit in the “disappointment” of Wieters’ 2009 and 2010 offense was his relative lack of power, (.124 and .129 ISO, respectively). In 2011, while his walk rate stayed about the same, his average on balls in play dropped again. The latter issue was mitigated by another year of improvement in Wieters’ strikeout rate. Wieters’ most significant improvement in 2011 as against prior seasons was his power, which went up to a .188 ISO, primarily fueled by 22 home runs. Still, a .339 wOBA (110 wRC+) is not on the level of that was expected of Wieters prior to his rookie year. He was expected to be more than a “good hitter for a catcher.”
If that is as far as one wants to go, one might have concluded that Wieters was an above average player with a good (not great) bat who was playing a premium position. But while catcher fielding is a difficult thing to quantify (although I am not sure we are much worse off there than we are with fielding in general), it is pretty clear that the Gold Glove voters got at least one thing right in 2011 in recognizing Wieters’ value behind the plate.
The simple catcher ratings I have done in the past showed Wieters to be the best defensive catcher in the American League in 2010 with respect to the cumulative value of catching base stealers, blocking pitches, and avoiding fielding errors. In 2011, the same basic method found him to be easily be best in baseball at about 15 runs above average. Other, more sophisticated methods also found Wieters to be among the best in the league at blocking pitches, controlling the running game, and to be at least average in pitch framing.
Considering his bat as projected prior to this year, Wieters was probably a three or four win player. Clearly above average, but not a superstar. However, once one incorporates his estimated fielding value, he is at the very least a four-win player, and the five wins he put up according to FanGraphs in 2011 may indeed be close to his current true talent.
It seems silly to say that Matt Wieters has “finally” arrived. I could go through the small sample of his 2012 start and pick things out and write things like “well, it’s a small sample, but if he keeps it up…” as happens so often early in the season on sabermetrics-friendly blogs. It seems more worth noting that even on the basis of his pre-2012 hitting performance, Wieters projected as every being about as valuable as Yadier Molina — Molina might have the better glove, but Wieters has the better bat (yes, I realize Molina is also off to an insanely hot start). Wieters is also about four years younger. Molina got five years and $75 million in the off-season.
Despite his hot 2012 start, Matt Wieters probably is not going to turn into the combination of Mike Piazza and Joe Mauer some thought he would be. However, I am pretty sure that if he was a free agent right now, he would get substantially bigger contract than Molina’s. He may not be world-historical, but Matt Wieters had already arrived as one of the best catchers in baseball, a star player and building block for the Orioles. If they do not have other materials to put around him, that is hardly his fault.
its a contract year for him, u just dont know it yet, he will get a 6/50 mil deal in sept or feb.
I snack on batting donuts.
thats good to know if u dont perform u might recieve a 2 year 8 mil deal
Yeah, Scott Boras seems like just the type to settle for a 6/50 deal. I’m actually not 100% convinced that Boras would have him sign a six year deal for exactly twice that amount (probably, given he still has two years of arbitration, but not a guarantee).
I still laugh heartily at the moronic “biggest bust ever” slander thrown at Wieters by at least one so-called expert in 2010.
True fans who have had the pleasure of watching him every day know what the Orioles have: a guy who calls a great game, handles his pitching staff extremely well, throws as well as any catcher in the game and blocks pitches far better than anyone has a right to expect from a guy his size. That his offense has steadily improved the past two years is icing on the cake. He still hasn’t reached his peak, behind the plate or as a hitter.
There’s no young catcher I’d rather have on my team, Buster Posey included.
¡ hola amigo !
Hi. I’m better at baseball than you.
I like Wieters, I think he’s a solid catcher and was underrated as a hitter before this year. I do have to ask, though – what in the world leads you to believe he calls a good game?
The Orioles have been worst in the league in ERA or thereabouts every year of his career…so in what way does he call a good game?
You can’t really fault Wieters for catching a plethora of pitchers who can’t execute their pitches.
That doesn’t mean he’s not a bust. The Orioles fans I know expected him to be a generational player, better than Piazza or IRod, an 8 WAR / season player — that hasn’t happened, so he has to be considered a bust.
Yea, his BABIP is about where you expect, and while the ISO is certainly not going to stay so high, if that walk rate proves to be real (ish) and the power stays, he could be finally delivering all the goods.
It seems like they should see if they can wrap him up with Zimmerman money now…because soon he goes from a generally underrated catcher on a losing team to the Best Catcher In Baseball, just 2 years from free agency and a monster contract with some evil team.
I hope that evil team is the Red Sox.
How is he only 2 years from FA? According to BR, he’s FA eligible in 2016. Even if he was a super 2, you have 2012, 2013, and 2014 of arbitration. Unless you mean “2 more years” not counting 2012, which is still in mid April.
It seems like catchers age faster than other players. If he becomes a FA in 2015 he’ll be 29, if 2016, he’ll be 30. I think it’d be wise to not throwdown a bunch of money on a long term deal then.
To the guy who says “I hope it’s the BoSox”, if he’s 29/30 and the BoSox give him 6/90. I hope so too, it’d be hilarious.
Did no one see his pre and post all star splits from last season??? The dude has obviously figured something out and I fully expect him to crank out 30 homers and hit +.280 the season. The average might be a stretch, but we’ll see …
Matt Wieters took batting practice this morning. There were no survivors.
oh, are we allowed to do “matt wieters facts” again?!
Instead of turning into Joe Mauer with power, he became Yadier Molina with power. And I’m happy with that. His defense is a tremendous help for the inexperienced pitching staff.
I’ve watched the Orioles for nearly 40 yrs. now and without a doubt Wieters is the best defensive catcher the team has had during that period. He’s one of the best I’ve seen, period.
He does a phenomenal job blocking errant pitches but his ability to keep other teams from running is extraordinary.
Last weekend, I watched him scoop up a breaking ball about half a foot from the dirt and in practically one motion throw a perfect strike to the first base side of second to nail Lawrie. He has not only a cannon for an arm, but he’s very accurate.
Earl Weaver would have loved having Wieters, since Earl always stressed 3 things during his tenure: pitching, defense and the 3 run homer.
Last year, Matt Weiters was the best defensive catcher in the game by a lot of defensive metrics. I’m fully willing to believe he is also on his way to becoming the best offensive catcher in the game too. It can take a while for catchers to develop offensively, given the priority of their other assignments.
What’s up with all the “quotation marks?” Does “finally” not finally?
Read into the “sarcasm”, Capt. Obvious
sup bitches.
where is the love
I always wonder about switch hitting power prospects… Seems like they could be a bit more moody than others…
Against the Yankees last week, Wieters was crossed up by a fastball (expecting offspeed) that he had to reach across his body for, and he caught it just in time, with unbelievable reflexes. It was a pitch that normally goes to the backstop, but Wieters got to it and actually got a strike call. He’s good.
Drafted him last year and traded him a couple weeks later. Rode Avila through the all-star break, then traded back for Wieters. Drafted him again this spring, and not letting go. Melikes this kid. He good.
When a young player is expected to put up very good offense numbers AND be a golf glove defender right from the start, “disappointment” might be the most likely result.
The “problem” is most likely in the expectations, not in Matt Weiters.
We can likely watch the Royals over the next few years and see something similar.
Weiters was basically expected to be a top 5 catcher right from the start. That’s probably not fair.
To name names, it was BP’s Steven Goldman (Yankee-phile without any particularly useful baseball insight) who said Wieters was a top 50 bust of all time. Note the use of past tense. I.e., he was not claiming that Wieters would become a bust but rather that a 24-year-old who was already an above average major league catcher was a historic bust. Unrelatedly, Goldman’s tenure at BP ended less than a year later.
Circle change nailed it. If folks expect you to be a near-MVP before you’ve played a big league game, being an All-Star caliber player makes you look like a bust.
When we’re discussing players who seem to have broken out, why focus on wieters? Adam Jones is only 9 months older than wieters and has been thought of as a prospect on the cusp for several years, despite putting up some pretty decent offensive nos through his career. Why is it so unthinkable that he’s making a jump in his age 26 season?
Because he’s still striking out a bunch and not walking at all. The only difference between this year and last year is that he’s hitting a lot more fly balls and has a 5% higher HR/FB%
Jones isn’t as good defensively in the OF as Weiters is behind the plate either. Not only that, but it’s easier to be an elite offensive catcher (by easier I don’t mean that it’s physically easier, I’m sure taking a pounding every game makes it harder). 25 HR from an outfielder is good but it happens. 25 from a catcher and a high average and high OB is elite.