Have A Day, Jose Fernandez

As spring training gave way to the regular season, the Marlins turned some heads when they announced that Jose Fernandez had made the team. No, not just made the team, but that he wasn’t even an injury replacement for Henderson Alvarez or Nathan Eovaldi — he was here to stay. Yesterday, he made his debut, and he made quite an impact. The debut was arguably one of the best for a pitcher of his age in baseball history.

Just 20 years old, Fernandez won’t turn 21 until the non-waiver trading deadline. Drafted by the Marlins with the 14th overall pick in the 2011 first-year player draft, Fernandez becomes the fourth player chosen in that draft’s first two rounds to debut in the majors after Trevor Bauer, Dylan Bundy and Jackie Bradley Jr. He signed early enough in ’11 to get into two games, one with the Gulf Coast League Marlins and one with the short-season Jamestown Jammers. It was just 4.1 innings though, and as such expectations were tempered nationally heading into 2012. Fernandez placed third on the Marlins’ top prospects list at Baseball America, and both our Marc Hulet and ESPN’s Keith Law had him second behind Christian Yelich on theirs, but neither BA, Hulet nor Law ranked Fernandez as a top-100 prospect.

That would change heading into this season, and with good reason. The Marlins challenged the 19-year-old with a spot in the South Atlantic League, and he was one of just 13 teenage pitchers to rack up 70 innings in the SAL last season. There were a few big names among those 13 pitchers, but Fernandez’s 1.78 FIP and 1.59 ERA were the best of the group. In fact, they were the best marks of all 94 pitchers to toss at least 70 innings in the league period, with his ERA being nearly a full run better than second-place finisher Tyler Anderson. Fernandez then moved to High-A Jupiter, where he kept on dominating. He would toss just 55 innings in the Florida State League, and was the only teenage pitcher to do so. There, his 2.15 FIP was second among those who tossed at least 50 innings in the FSL, and his 1.96 ERA placed fourth, though the pitcher who bettered him in FIP was 24, and the pitchers who bettered him in ERA were ages 22, 25 and 22, respectively.

Simply put, Fernandez was on fire. Heading into this season, he placed fifth on BA’s top 100 prospect list, eighth on Hulet’s and 16th on Law’s, giving him one of the most meteoric rises from ’12 to ’13. And now he’s in the majors. Since 1983, only 40 players aged 20 or younger have made their major league debut as a starting pitcher, and it’s not hyperbole to say that Fernandez’s start yesterday was one of the very few that can be considered the best of that group.

In his outing yesterday, Fernandez tossed five innings and 80 pitches — the Marlins will keep him on a loose innings count of 150-175 this season, so low innings totals per start are nothing to be alarmed about — and according to Brooks Baseball, featured a fairly balanced four-pitch mix. He featured his four-seamer and curve most frequently, but mixed in enough changeups and sinkers to keep hitters honest. He worked mostly off of his fastball when behind in the count, and exclusively off of his fastball and curve once he got to two strikes on a hitter. Both pitches were incredibly impressive. He touched 97 on the four-seamer, and averaged 94.8 mph with the pitch according to Pitchf/x and 95.6 according to Brooks. Either way, his velocity puts him in league with Stephen Strasburg, Jeff Samardzija and Brandon Morrow for fastest fastball velocity by a starter a week into the season. Perhaps most impressive is the fact that he was able to freeze both left-handed and right-handed hitters with his curveball — Lucas Duda, Ike Davis and David Wright all walked back to the dugout with the bat on their shoulders after watching Fernandez’s curve drop into the zone for strike three.

In all, Fernandez allowed just one run on three hits and a walk. That alone would have put Fernandez on the short list for best debut start for a 20-year-old in the past 30 years. Of the 40 pitchers on the list, only six worked five innings and allowed three hits or less — Jeff D’Amico, Matt Cain, Dwight Gooden, Felix Hernandez, CC Sabathia and Jacob Turner. But Fernandez upped the ante by striking out eight of the 19 hitters he faced, for a silly 42% K%. No one else on our debut list struck out eight, and only three — Clayton Kershaw, Oliver Perez and Kerry Wood — struck out seven. From a holistic perspective, we find that Fernandez’s 64 game score ties him with Edwin Jackson for fifth-place on this list all-time:

Rk Player Age Date GSc
1 Ramon Martinez 20.144 8/13/1988 68
2 Joel Davis 20.193 8/11/1985 67
3 Jeff D’Amico 20.184 6/28/1996 66
4 Jose Fernandez 20.250 4/7/2013 64
5 Edwin Jackson 20.000 9/9/2003 64
6 Jordan Lyles 20.224 5/31/2011 63
7 Alex Fernandez 20.354 1990-08-02 (1) 61
8 Clayton Kershaw 20.067 5/25/2008 60
9 Dwight Gooden 19.143 4/7/1984 60
10 Scott Kazmir 20.212 8/23/2004 60
11 Jacob Turner 20.070 7/30/2011 57
12 Felix Hernandez 19.118 8/4/2005 57
13 Oliver Perez 20.305 6/16/2002 54
14 Dennys Reyes 20.085 7/13/1997 54
15 Gil Meche 20.301 7/6/1999 53
16 Madison Bumgarner 20.038 9/8/2009 53
17 CC Sabathia 20.261 4/8/2001 52
18 Matt Cain 20.332 8/29/2005 51
19 Rick Ankiel 20.035 8/23/1999 49
20 Zack Greinke 20.214 5/22/2004 49
24 Kerry Wood 20.300 4/12/1998 44
26 Julio Teheran 20.100 5/7/2011 43
30 Phil Hughes 20.306 4/26/2007 37
31 Rick Porcello 20.103 4/9/2009 36
36 Carlos Zambrano 20.080 2001-08-20 (2) 25

You’ll recognize a lot of the names on this list, in which I included the top 20, and then the players on this list that is currently pitching or just recently stopped pitching. Fernandez is in some pretty good company here.

One start is one start is one start, and since Fernandez had never pitched above Single-A ball before and didn’t face the Mets during Grapefruit League play this spring, there’s a pretty good chance that they were going in blind yesterday. Yes, the Mets had been raking, but if you’ve never seen a pitcher before that is generally considered a big advantage for said pitcher. As video builds up on him, the league is likely to catch up to him. But a guy with a 97-mph fastball, a knee-buckling curve and no fear (unless it’s roller coasters or snakes, that is) is a dangerous pitcher. Yes, 20-years-old is young for a pitcher, but the Marlins are hardly setting precedent here. If the Cuban native can keep pitching even in the neighborhood of how he pitched yesterday, we will be enjoying his starts for quite some time.




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Paul Swydan is the managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for the Boston Globe. He has also written extensively for ESPN MLB Insider. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan.


16 Responses to “Have A Day, Jose Fernandez”

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  1. ALEastbound says:

    That was #beastmode

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  2. John says:

    Keith Law had Fernandez at #16 on his Top 100 Prospects, Baseball America had him at #5 and unless Hulet is a complete moron, I’m sure he made his top 100 list too.

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    • Phil says:

      Ummmmm yeah, that’s all in the article

      “Heading into this season, he placed fifth on BA’s top 100 prospect list, eighth on Hulet’s and 16th on Law’s, giving him one of the most meteoric rises from ’12 to ’13.”

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  3. John says:

    Nevermind, I see he was talking about going into 2012. My mistake.

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  4. Z..... says:

    Even though I absolutely dont agree with Jose Fernandez being in the big leagues right now, I have to say that I am really excited to see how he continues after today’s great outing. The kid is completely filthy at 20 years old. Free and easy delivery with an easy 97, a filthy breaking ball, and what looked like a really improved changeup that had run on it away from the lefties. The kid was absolutely dirty today, with great command, and is clearly above the maturity level for his age after all that he has been through.

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    • CircleChange11 says:

      You listed a bunch of very good reasons of why he SHOULD be in the majors …. but preface it by saying you don;t agree with him being in the majors.

      My view is that since minor league pitchers aren’t throwing any easier or much less innings/pitches in the minors, you might as well get as much major league service out of them as you can before free agency.

      If he has the stuff and mental maturity to handle the major leagues, then that’s where he belongs.

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      • Z..... says:

        You would normally be correct about that. The problem that I have with it is that if they wait a month or so, we keep him for an extra year of control. Him starting the season now, when its not needed, means that another rebuild is gonna come down the line. By the time we start competing again in a couple of years, he will already start getting expensive and his agent is Scott Boras. It seems that this would mean that he will likely be traded in 3-4 years and by then, Stanton will likely be gone as well, and we wouldnt even get full value for him b/c we waited too long to trade him when we knew he wouldnt sign here. Love the young talent. Very excited to see them perform. I’m just frustrated that we’re gonna have to rebuild again in a couple of years instead of taking advantage of the talent we have

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  5. Ryan says:

    It will be interesting to see if attendance figures differ at all for games he starts in Miami. He’s got to be one of the only reasons to go see the team play right now.

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  6. Ben says:

    Usually I’d be very much against Fernandez spending time in the big leagues right now, but I’ve been touched by the magic angel dust he seems to spread everywhere he goes. Scouts and others are dazzled not only by the 19 year olds talent but by his deportment off the mound. I remarked that his body type and ease of delivery reminded me of a young Felix Hernandez, but I after more thought it seems as though he’s his own body type. He does repeat his easy, smooth, jerkyless delivery so deftly it seems as though he began working on it out of the womb. He’s a pitcher that could easily spend some more time in the minors, and I know financially it might not be the best move, but if he can produce for the Marlins now, I’m all for it. 170 innings seems to be the limit they have him set for this season, hopefully all 170 come in the big leagues.

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    • Z..... says:

      The problem that I have with it is that if they wait a month or so, we keep him for an extra year of control. Him starting the season now, when its not needed, means that another rebuild is gonna come down the line. By the time we start competing again in a couple of years, he will already start getting expensive and his agent is Scott Boras. It seems that this would mean that he will likely be traded in 3-4 years and by then, Stanton will likely be gone as well, and we wouldnt even get full value for him b/c we waited too long to trade him when we knew he wouldnt sign here. Love the young talent. Very excited to see them perform. I’m just frustrated that we’re gonna have to rebuild again in a couple of years instead of taking advantage of the talent we have

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      • Oh, Beepy says:

        Holy shit its a Marlins fan!

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        • Z..... says:

          you do know that there were at least 33,000 people at the game last night (which did surprise me) out of the 36,000 available seats? There could be even more as a lot of fans at that park tend to roam around instead of using their seats. It was a pretty nice atmosphere last night with the roof finally open

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  7. rd says:

    Can anyone explain why he is starting now? They lose some control over him and assuming he has an innings limit, starting him in April is just going to mean he will meet that innings limit earlier. Is it an attendance gimmick? (I can’t imagine that, he hasn’t gotten that much hype)

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    • Z..... says:

      I would assume that they’re not gonna limit his innings the same way the Nationals did it with Strasburg. They’ll likely do it the way all the other teams have done it over the years by doing it over the course of the season rather than letting him go and shutting him down when he reaches the limit. Regardless of that, as I said above, I hate the financial repercussions of this move as all it does is make me anticipate another rebuild 3-4 years from now, right when we are just starting to compete again

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      • GoodasGoldy says:

        I agree on the Marlins spacing out his starts vs the Nats approach. If they are really smart they will control Jose’s innings by giving him the bulk of his starts at home. Then not only do they get the innings limit they’re looking for but they also get the potential gate benefit. A team has approximately 27 home stands so it wouldn’t take much rotation flopping/spot starts to get him 20 starts at home using 4-7 days off between starts.

        The reality is the guy could become a Fernando-mania type in Miami regularly adding 10,000-15,000 extra fans when he pitches. That’s more than a half mil of incremental gross revenue per start or +10mil over the 20 stars.

        The important thing is it doesn’t look like he will be over matched with his arsenal and control. He’ll take some lumps learning to limit damage but at worst he’ll still be one of their top starters.

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  8. Paul says:

    so he is afraid of snakes eh? The Diamondbacks are going to give him fits then.

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