Home Run Rates in 1998 and 2012

They’re announcing the Hall of Fame results today, so a lot of people are talking about steroids right now. When people talk about steroids, they talk about home runs. And they talk about the integrity of the game, the disgrace of the “steroid era”, and what the muscle-bound cheaters did to the hallowed history books with their absurd power totals. 1998 is often held up as the pinnacle of the steroid era, where two PED users both broke the 61 home run barrier, and Mark McGwire was the first player to ever hit 70 home runs in a season. It was, obviously, the result of rampant steroid usage, you are going to be told.

To those who tell you that, please ask them to explain this simple fact.

Season	PA	Home Runs	Contact Plays	HR per Contact
1993	174,548	4,029	131,933	3.1%
1994	124,482	3,306	92,709	3.6%
1995	156,694	4,081	115,814	3.5%
1996	177,251	4,962	130,453	3.8%
1997	175,522	4,639	128,477	3.6%
1998	188,265	5,063	138,345	3.7%
1999	189,682	5,528	139,097	4.0%
2000	190,246	5,692	139,086	4.1%
2001	186,933	5,458	136,851	4.0%
2002	186,615	5,059	137,229	3.7%
2003	187,449	5,207	138,910	3.7%
2004	188,539	5,451	138,639	3.9%
2005	186,294	5,017	138,646	3.6%
2006	188,071	5,386	138,752	3.9%
2007	188,623	4,957	138,600	3.6%
2008	187,631	4,878	136,738	3.6%
2009	187,079	5,042	135,278	3.7%
2010	185,553	4,613	133,920	3.4%
2011	185,245	4,552	134,185	3.4%
2012	184,179	4,934	131,550	3.8%

Contact Plays are simply defined as a plate appearance that doesn’t end with a walk, strikeout, or hit batter. In other words, the batter hits the ball and it goes some distance.

Note: the rate of home runs per contacted ball was higher last year than it was in 1998. It was higher last year than it was during most of the years of the so-called “steroid era”.

The drastic decrease in home runs since the inception of PED testing is due mostly to the dramatic rise in strikeouts we’ve seen over the last five years. The league average strikeout rate hung at around 17% for most of the “steroid era”, but climbed to a record high 20% last year.

If you put forth the current run environment as an example of what baseball looks like without PEDs, please understand that you are arguing that PEDs caused hitters to be able to make contact more often, not hit the ball over the wall more often when they did make contact. That is what the facts demonstrate. We’re all entitled to our own opinions, but we aren’t entitled to our own facts. And the fact is, the rate of home runs on contacted balls was higher in 2012 than it was in 1998.