Hot Corner Departees

Continuing our series of looking at the free agents to be, by position, we move from the backstop to the hot corner, checking out the third basemen who will be available this off-season. Eight third basemen of note are going to be free agents, which include three pairs from the Rangers, Brewers, and Dodgers, a productive when healthy player, and a player only in the major leagues for his ability to play each and every position with league average skills. Here are the eight:

Name                  Age        G            Slash        WPA/LI
Hank Blalock           28       65   .287/.338/.508          0.21
Willie Bloomquist      31       71   .279/.377/.285          0.32
Joe Crede              31       97   .248/.314/.460         -0.57
Ramon Vazquez          32      105   .290/.365/.430         -0.10
Russell Branyan        33       50   .250/.342/.583          1.21
Nomar Garciaparra      35       55   .264/.326/.466          0.26
Casey Blake            35      152   .274/.345/.463          0.89
Craig Counsell         38      110   .226/.355/.302         -0.29

Blalock has an option on his contract for 2009, which should be exercised given that, despite the small sample size, he looked more like the 2003-2004 version of himself than the 2005-07 version. His ISO, OPS, and BB/K all returned to their 2003-2004 ranges, back when he was an all star. He also hit 12 home runs in 258 at bats and was a league average defender. His -3 and -4 defensive ratings in 2006 and 2007 support that he is probably average or slightly below average, but if he can produce for a whole season what he did in 1/3 of the 2008 season, he will definitely be worthwhile for the 6.2mm option.

Willie Bloomquist is a player that actually lives up to the oft-used example of why batting average does not tell the whole story. The example compares a player who hits in the .270s but with no extra base hits to someone in the .250s but with plenty of extra base power. Bloomquist had one double, and everything else was a single. He played all over the place this year, generally ranging from -2 to +2 wherever he found time. He may find a home somewhere as a utility player, but he does not have much value.

Crede was worth about a half win less than an average player in just 97 games, but managed to be the fourth best fielding third baseman, at +13 in the field. He did hit 17 home runs in 335 at bats and has established himself as a capable performer, so if he can stay healthy, he could be a nice addition. Ramon Vazquez was the opposite in the field, at -10, and despite a nice .290/.365/.430 line, it was more of a mirage than an accurate performance indicator. Ironically, his 2007 and 2008 seasons were eerily similar in terms of playing time: he played 104 games last year and 105 this year; he amassed 300 AB in both seasons; he stepped to the plate 345 times in 2007 and 347 times in 2008. He walked more, struck out less, and added more hits to improve his overall numbers. Unfortunately, this hinged upon an unsustainable .355 BABIP. He may have had a nice season, but Blalock is the much better bet here.

I cannot speak enough about Russell Branyan and it pains me that he does not play more. Yes, he strikes out, but he walks and absolutely mashes as well. In 132 at bats this year he hit 12 home runs, and managed to play +2 defense when he found himself at third base. Three true outcome players usually decline around the 35 years old mark, so the Bran-man should have a couple more productive years in him.

Nomar’s career reminds me a lot of Grant Hill’s: they were megastars for six or seven seasons, well on their way to the respective halls of fame, but injuries slowed them down and turned them into nice role players but nowhere near go to guys. Casey Blake was a nice pickup by the Dodgers to solidify the position down the stretch, but I would not expect him to be re-signed by Ned Colletti. I would expect Nomar to land himself a 1B/3B job somewhere, and Blake to be a starting third baseman for at least one more season.

Craig Counsell, however, has probably reached the point where he hangs up the cleats and becomes a bench coach. From what I have heard, he is destined to be a manager, and it might be time to start that process. He was not awful with the bat, but is a below average hitter still hanging on due to his ability to play multiple positions and do “the small things.” Blalock is the real catch here, and so it is likely the Rangers will keep him for at least 2009.

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Eric is an accountant and statistical analyst from Philadelphia. He also covers the Phillies at Phillies Nation and can be found here on Twitter.

6 Responses to “Hot Corner Departees”

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  1. Basil Ganglia says:

    Re Willie Bloomquist.

    Omitted from the discussion is Bloomquist’s ability on the bases. He is a proficient at stealing bases, and has often been called on to do so as a pinch-runner in late innings. He’s an 81% career base-stealer, with a disproportionate number of those steals occurring when being deployed as a pinch runner late in a game, when the opposing teams knows he will be attempting a steal.

    I think there a player who can be used as a late inning substitution, who can play almost any position in the field, and who is not a total embarrassment at the plate is a useful role player on the end of the bench. Bloomquist has often been a whipping boy in the Mariners blogosphere, but that’s because the Mariners over-valued his particular skill set.

    For a contending team, Bloomquist is a fine addition to fill out a roster. If he is used as a strategic substitution in late innings, I think he is a nice complementary piece. providing value above and beyond ordinary bench-filler. A smart team will see that value, use him in that role, and let him know that he shouldn’t whine about not being a starter.

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  2. Nathan says:

    I couldn’t have been pulling any harder against you, but congrats on the pennant all the same. I too am a 22 year old baseball freak, only my hometown is New York City, so you know how it is.

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  3. Paul says:

    I was just having a look at what Counsell did this year and was fairly surprised at how “good” he was. Seems to me he was the victim of fairly terrible luck. I don’t think anyone’s going to argue that even with standard luck he’d be fantastic, but take a look:

    23% LD
    .268 BABIP
    15.6% BB (!)

    That’s over 248 ABs, so while not huge, it’s still fairly significant. Perhaps he could prove to be a useful player still.

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  4. Nothing against Blalock personally, but he’s totally a product of his home park (career stats):

    home: .306/.375/.531/.905, 19 AB/HR, 225 ISO
    away: .244/.299/.402/.702, 31 AB/HR, 158 ISO

    Giants fans have been drooling over him for years, but he can’t even break 800 on the road in any season, even in shortened seasons. And he only got close twice out of his 7 seasons played, otherwise he didn’t even hit well enough for a SS. His away batting line is very Neifi-ish, though he does have 20 HR power on the road, OK not good or great.

    There is only one park – career – that he has had PAs over 25 where he has hit over .800 OPS at, Fenway. Otherwise, he has hit poor to below average at 14 other parks with at least 49 PA.

    And his highest AB/HR among these 14 parks is Tropicana with 20 AB/HR but then the next highest is basically 3-4 parks at around 30 AB/HR, then many in the high double digits.

    There are a few parks he has mashed in, like Cincinnati, but in limited ABs. Them, ChiSox, Tropicana, maybe Citizen Bank Park (they need a 3B again, though they are stuck with Feliz at big bucks), and of course Fenway.

    The Giants need a 3B, but only Branyan looks interesting, but he’s been interesting for years and still the Giants never kicked his tires, so I assume that’s not going to happen. I thought Dallas McPherson was an obvious one last season and he fell through almost immediately after he was available.

    However, Blalock is the only one in the right age range for long term among these free agents, so I’m afraid that the Giants might try to sign him. Luckily, Blalock’s numbers aren’t that great for his career even with the Texas boost for half his ABs, so they might decide to pass if there are other teams hot and heavy for Hank.

    I think it could depend on how well Kevin Frandsen plays in the winter. If he plays well and shows his old self is back, they might leave 3B open to give him a spot to slide to if he doesn’t win 2B outright (that is my guess). If he totally blows, then they got Velez at 2B, slide Sandoval to 3B, and play Ishikawa at 1B. If he wins 2B, then again with Sandoval at 3B and Ishikawa at 1B. And that’s if the Giants aren’t able to trade for a 3B prospect from somewhere. The Giants like to Rubik’s cube it sometimes and see what happens when all the dust settles.

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  5. Drew says:

    Regarding Branyan, he hit 10 of those 12 homers in a 17 game stretch (.306/.405/.855) early in the summer, then played terribly (.200/.282/.343) as a part-time starter and pinch hitter in 30 games where he only hit 2 home runs.

    Both stretches are a small sample size, so this is not meant to be an indictment of Branyan. Overall, he killed righties and was 0-14 against lefties, against whom he never started. I’m sure his numbers in more plate appearances would be decent for the most part.

    Perhaps he wasn’t used correctly.

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  6. Hola, he estado mirando por el blog y no encuentro una forma de ponerme en contacto contigo. Me podrĂ­as decir una forma, por favor? Muchas gracias.

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