How Much Does Zack Greinke Improve the Angels?
On Friday night, the Angels landed the big prize of this trade deadline season, acquiring Zack Greinke from Milwaukee in exchange for shortstop Jean Segura and pitchers Ariel Pena and John Hellweg. Given all that the Angels have invested in their current club, pushing the team forward with another big upgrade makes sense on paper. In fact, given that they’ve cut the Rangers lead down to five games in the AL West, the value of a marginal win for Anaheim is extremely high, as the difference between a division winner and a wild card is enormous.
So, acquiring an impact player makes sense given the Angels position in the standings and their desire to win in the short term, but in looking at the specifics of the Angels roster, I wonder if they won’t realize a smaller improvement than one might expect from a team acquiring a top flight starter.
Before the trade, the Angels rotation consisted of Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, Dan Haren, Ervin Santana, and Garrett Richards, with Jerome Williams serving as a sixth starter and insurance for the first five. Greinke’s acquisition pushed Richards to the bullpen for this week’s series against the Rangers, but if Santana has another disaster start, he could be the one losing his job. Neither Richards or Santana have pitched particularly well this year, so replacing either with Greinke is a legitimate upgrade.
But, to be honest, the Angels could have already replaced either Santana or Richards if they didn’t perform all that well down the stretch. While Jerome Williams required a DL trip with “breathing issues” that he related to asthma and anxiety, he’s pitched pretty well since returning and has been a pretty effective starter for the Angels over the last year. Dating back to the beginning of August last year, Williams has thrown 145 innings with a 4.29 ERA/4.23 FIP/4.06 xFIP, a perfectly acceptable performance from a back-end starter. He doesn’t do anything amazingly well, but he’s solid across the board, and the Angels simply could have used him to replace Santana or Richards if they felt that was necessary.
Of course, Williams could have only replaced either Santana or Richards, so Greinke is still taking the place of the other, which means that they will have a much better pitcher on the hill once every five days than if they had stood pat. Using the ZIPS rest-of-season projections, we see that Greinke’s expected ERA over the final two months of the season is 3.28, while Santana comes in at 4.83 and Richards at 5.79. Even adjusting that for the move to the American League, a 1.0 to 1.5 run gap on a per-nine-inning basis can really add up, even over a period as short as two months.
Greinke will likely make 12 starts for the Angels in August and September, and he averages about six innings per start, so you can pencil him for around 70-75 innings going forward. At a 3.50 or so ERA level, he’d allow 27-29 runs in those innings. If we assume that the Santana/Richards hybrid would combine for a 5.00 ERA, that would equal 39-42 runs, so Greinke looks like about a +10 to +15 run improvement in the regular season. In other words, this move adds around a win to the Angels expected ledger, and if Greinke pitches really well, maybe even as many as two wins. That’s about as large of an upgrade as you expect to get at the deadline.
However, that’s the regular season. The Angels clearly acquired Greinke with the intention of playing in October and putting a devastating playoff rotation together that could carry them deep into the playoffs. With Weaver, Wilson, Haren, and Greinke, the Angels certainly have the best rotation of any AL contender, and perhaps the best rotation of any club fighting for a postseason berth in either league. Here, though, is where the significance of this upgrade seems to be diminished.
In the best-of-five Division series, only the Game One starter is asked to take the ball twice, and even in the best-of-seven League Championship Series and World Series, the team’s #4 starter only makes one start no matter how long the series goes. In fact, a #4 starter in the playoffs is effectively marginalized by the schedule to the point that it’s one of the least important positions on a playoff roster. And this is the position that Greinke effectively upgrades in October.
This acquisition essentially pushes Dan Haren into that #4 spot, meaning he’ll get just one start in each playoff series, while Weaver/Wilson/Greinke will be lined up to potentially make two starts each if the LCS/WS go seven games. But, while Greinke’s a good pitcher, the upgrade over Haren is much smaller than the upgrade over Santana/Richards. In fact, due to the playoff schedule, the impact of the #4 starter is fairly heavily marginalized. While Haren has struggled this year, pushing him into a lesser role for October isn’t nearly as impactful as pushing a poor player off the roster entirely.
While Greinke is likely to help the Angels make a push for the AL West, they probably could have gotten by in October with either Williams or a lower cost trade acquisition (such as Paul Maholm) in the #4 spot. Given who they already had in the rotation, the Angels probably needed Greinke less than just about any other contender.
That doesn’t mean this deal wasn’t worth doing, however. They still gain significant value from their increased odds of winning the division, especially since they also kept him from going to Texas by acquiring him themselves. And, reports suggest that Greinke had Anaheim high on his list of potential suitors, so they may end up getting him signed before he even gets to free agency, and perhaps at a price that helps justify the price they paid to acquire him. Given the Angels situation, trading future talent for present talent makes sense, and this was probably a good deal for the franchise as a whole. However, given that they already had three pretty good starting pitchers, I don’t know that this deal is going to do that much to improve their chances of going deep in the playoffs.
Without looking at the post-season schedule, would a 4th impact starter be more important if the Angels end up with one of the wild card spots?
This is an excellent point.
This was my first thought. My second thought was about depth; if one of the Angels’ top three starters has an injury (serious or not), they lose very little now.
This was a good move for a team with lots of resources.
I do believe that this is one of the rarer cases where acquiring the soon to be FA should increase the Angels chances of resigning him.
The Angels have $39 million coming off the books guaranteed next year. And club options for both Santana at $13 mil and Haren at $13 mil.
The Angels could pretty easily afford (only if they are making money this year) another big name FA or two. It would also be pretty easy to back load contracts to take advantage of Wells’ deal coming off the books after 2014.
There’s also the potential that they have to burn their number 1 starter in a one game playoff, so then adding another top of the rotation pitcher would be slightly more valuable in that first series after that wild card playoff, assuming they win it, of course.
But this also sets up the Angels much better in the Wild Card scenario. Presumably, the #1 starter will pitch the Wild Card game, which pushes the #4 starter into the very significant #3 starter role for the best of five Division series.
He would still only pitch once in the series.
I don’t think it’s fair to assume that #1 will pitch the Wild Card game, because it seems likely that teams will be fighting for that final spot up until the last day or two of the season.
In this scenario, Greinke represents a huge upgrade, because it allows the Angels to start an ace in the play-in game, regardless of where they are in their rotation (at worst, one of Weaver, Wilson, Greinke or Haren would be available on 3 days rest).
Why in their right minds would The Angels start Haren in front of Greinke in the playoffs? Greinke is almost surely going to be the game 3 game 7 starter.
The idea is that the Angels already have Haren, so Greinke is an upgrade over whoever the number 4 starter is, and that player isn’t that valuable in the playoffs. In your scenario, the difference in value is Greinke over Haren, then Haren over the number 4 starter, which essentially becomes Greinke over the number 4.
RMD -
you understand that the article explicitly states the opposite, that haren would be #4 and greinke would start game 3, right?
Is there any value in the Angels also preventing the Rangers from getting Greinke to bolster their rotation?
texas could have traded for him but they preferred to keep their prospects
Just saying that by acquiring Greinke, the Angels ensured that Texas would be putting some combination of Feldman/Ogando/Perez out there instead of Greinke. Thus addition by subtration.
I absolutely agree! |The first thing I thought when I heard that the relatively pitching-rich Angels were the victors in the Greinke hunt was that they had blocked the Rangers from acquiring him. Considering the depth of the Rangers farm system, I don’t understand why Texas allowed the Angels to outbid them.
When a team starts to have consecutive short & poor outings from the starting staff, you start to see “bullpen collapse” like the Blue Jays have suffered this year. The effect of a good pitcher who doesn’t use up the bullpen helps the whole staff. Rangers could use this!
First, props to Dave Cameron for consistently being one of the two or three best baseball analysts on planet earth.
As an Angels fan, I’d be scared to death to have Richards/Williams/Santana starting a playoff game. Also (as many have mentioned), failing to trade Segura would’ve been akin to wasting resources given the extensions Howie and Aybar signed. Thus, while I agree that the difference for this year’s regular season may indeed be marginal, I’m stoked that DiPoto pulled the trigger.
Post-script: Please, no Maholm mentions. That’s the same dude who needed 6 pitches to strike out Billy Crystal. http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/03/13/a-swing-and-a-missed-opportunity/
This is a question, not a criticism of anything Dave said, which is well thought out.
How much, historically, has a team’s chances of signing a pending FA improved by trading for him at the deadline?
Wouldn’t he want as much money for an extension as he would expect to receive as a FA?
I really don’t think it matters much as it’s usually the team that shells out the most money that lands the player. However, if Greinke likes Anaheim and with the Angels penchant for throwing out money, it seems reasonable that this trade at least gives the benefit of the doubt if money is equal.
“gives the ANGELS the benefit of the doubt.”
Dave Cameron: Always making you think
Perhaps most important, they obtained marginal improvement at virtually no cost (unless you think Arte Moreno’s money belongs to you, which is a common notion in certain circles).
What would be really nice is if Greinke could make Morales, Wells, Hunter, Ianetta, Aybar, and Callaspo into better hitters.
Because Pujols Trout and Trumbo aren’t enough?
No kidding, my team would kill for those kind of offensive problems. Sigh.
The Phillies Four Aces worked so well in the playoffs last year.
You’re cherry-picking examples.
So are you.
A bullpen with Dan Haren is vastly better than the current Angels pen. Haren would get his innings in one way or another in the postseason.
1. There was a big trade
2. Over less than half a season, replacing an average starter with a good one isn’t that huge
3. However, it becomes more important in the playoffs
Thank you for this groundbreaking article, “one of the two or three best analysts on Earth.”
[not even criticizing Dave Cameron, just laughing at the reaction of some of the above commenters]
A few things:
“Santana comes in at 4.83″ Given Santana’s recent performance, the Angels would love it if he could perform at this level for the rest of the season. But, in 2 of his last 3 starts he hasn’t been able to get out of the second inning. His ERA so far in July is 16.00
The other issue is, at the time of the trade, nobody knew if Haren would bounce back from his back stiffness and be able to pitch effectively.
So, in reality, you have two reliable starters in Weaver and Wilson, and an underperforming/injured ace in Haren, a guy who is an automatic loss every start in Santana, and two inconsistent pitchers in Williams and Richards. Greinke gives them a third reliable starter; if Haren can rebound then they have 4 and the other guys can help solidify the bullpen.
The Angels are in third place in their division and it is not guaranteed that the Angels win the wild card.
There’s got to be some “value” in knowing that with the many days off in the playoffs, a team is guaranteed to start, at worst, Dan Haren in a playoff game. Effectively, the Angels can now run out four guys who are, IMO, far more likely to turn in a quality start (or better) than any other team’s top four guys. How is this not a major advantage in a playoff series and therefore worth the cost to get Greinke? In very very rough but fun terms, the chances that the Angels lose a playoff game because of a SP sucking went from “he’s Ervin Santana what did you expect?” to “I didn’t see that 2 IP 7 ER game coming from Haren”
If LAA want Greinke long-term, and he stayed with MIL this season, would they have lost their 1st round pick to MIL when signing him?
Obviously, MIL may have dealt him to someone else(then they don’t lose a pick), but not losing a 1st round pick that could turn into a player of Segura’s caliber is at least worth mentioning.
I doubt the playoff rotation figured much into the reasoning for this trade. It seems like Greinke was one of the best upgrades available at a decent price. There are 6-7 teams going for 2 wild card spots. Anything to separate the Angels from the pack will help. And if they can get lucky and claim the division, going from 6.25% WS victory chances to 12.5% – all the better. Point being that they are on the cuspy part of the win curve where they should be going all out. Plus in terms of longer term cycles they are in mega-win-now-mode due to the Pujols acquisition.
The feeling just knowing that they don’t have to roll out a unusually shaky Haren now and can throw Weaver, Wilson and Greinke out in a shot series and know the beast waiting in the wings has to have them feeliong great…especially since Texas pitching blows! It still doesn’t wake up all the Angle bats, but certainly helps the cause!
I know that 10 runs=1 win because of something. Why doesn’t it changed based on the offensive climate? To me it just seems like too even of a number to be accurate. Like depending on the year, it should be 6.73 or 5.98 or something.
It’s not ten, it was always ten-and-a-bit. And it does change by offensive environment, by Pythagenpat, I believe.
But there’s no point fussing over decimal places when you’re using projected ERAs anyway. The error in projections overwhelms it.
There’s also the second-order effect where you credit pitchers for lowering the run environment on a game-by-game basis, so that each run added by the offense is worth more.
That is, if a pitcher has a 0.00 ERA, the win value of a HR by that team’s cleanup hitter is now worth much more (it would be half a win, except you’d expect someone else to score a run eventually so not really), because that HR just wins the game.