How Much is Playing a Game Worth?

NOTE: If you haven’t seen the poll, then click that FIRST, then come back here to read more.

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I asked this question in a poll:

Player X created 105 runs in 105 games. AFTER which player would you slot him in, wrt MVP?

And I gave a list of Player A (150 runs) to Player F (100 runs). But in all cases, those guys played 162 games.

A straight arrow reader deduced the true intent of the question:

So the question is how you handle 57 games of production from somebody else.
a. Do you ignore it completely and just judge the guy on his 105?
b. Do you assume replacement level production?
c. Average?

If you simply give this player zero credit for the missing 57 games, then you would slot this player who created 105 runs in 105 games in between Player E (110 runs in 162 games) and Player F (100 runs in 162 games).

But perhaps you want to go the other way, and figure that the missing 57 games will be picked up by an average player, and so, you credit Player X with those runs (28.5 runs in this case), and so his 105 runs in 105 games is EQUIVALENT to created 133.5 runs in 162 games. Therefore, you’d slot him between Player B (140 runs in 162 games) and Player C (130 runs in 162 games).

Perhaps you think both those options are unfair:
(i) it’s unfair to presume an average player would pick up the slack
(ii) it’s unfair to presume that those 57 games would be a complete black hole

So, perhaps you decide that those 57 games need to get some runs credited to our Player X. Since the average player would create 28.5 runs, and a black hole player (i.e., pitcher as batter basically) would create 0 runs, then maybe something in-between, say 14 runs is what you should count.

Our Player X, with 105 runs in 105 games would be equivalent to a player with 119 runs in 162 games. And so, you would slot that player between Player D (120 runs in 162 games) and Player E (110 runs in 162 games).

The consensus pick was between Player C (130 runs in 162 games) and Player D (120 runs in 162 games). Therefore, Player X (105 runs in 105 games) would be equivalent to a player with 125 runs in 162 games.

Mathematically, you’d write this as:

105 – 105x = 125 – 162x

Rearranging the terms:
20 = 57 x

Solving for x gives us x = 0.35

Therefore, we give our Player X a rate of 0.35 runs per missing game.

Since the average rate (as noted in the poll) was 81 runs in 162 games, or 0.50 runs per game, then our “replacement level” is 0.35 runs per game, or -0.15 runs relative to average.

And -0.15 runs per game times 162 games is 24 runs per season. That’s where you readers have established the replacement level. And, as luck would have it, that’s pretty much exactly where saberists like to set the replacement level.

How you chose your answer is exactly how you handle replacement level for MVP discussions. For those who slotted him between the 110 and 100 runs created player, then you don’t believe that you should use replacement level for MVP discussions.



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chri521
Member
4 years 11 months ago

Worth more when Jim Hendry is fired!

Colin
Guest
Colin
4 years 11 months ago

Tango, was there a way to calculate the replacement level based on what you gave in the last poll?

Telo
Guest
Telo
4 years 11 months ago

Sure, the league average was stated as 81 runs in 162 games, so .5/g, and replacement, as deemed by the results is .35/g. So wRC+ 70 (=.35/.5) is replacement, at the plate

Chadam
Guest
Chadam
4 years 11 months ago

I love this article – but I saw it before I even saw the poll that was posted this morning, and I check Fangraphs daily. Wouldn’t it have been better to let the polll marinate for a day or two before this follow up post? Just curious.

Friedman
Member
Friedman
4 years 11 months ago

tango had it on his site a day or two ago

Corey
Guest
Corey
4 years 11 months ago

I like the idea sure, but I don’t think slotting him between 110 and 100 counts as “not wanting to use replacement level”; you could just as easily think that whatever games that player doesn’t play shouldn’t be counted towards their MVP consideration, whether they are replaced with an amazing hitter or an awful one.

I would actually argue that slotting them above 110 is misleading: if you have a shortstop who produces 105 runs in 105 games, that’s going to much more valuable than a first baseman who does the same, and so giving the first baseman credit for a higher replacement level in those games that he doesn’t play actually negates the real value of the shortstop when compared to his peers.

If you told me, for example, that you had a catcher who had produced 105 runs in 105 games and asked for a MVP vote for him over a first baseman who had produced 130 in 162, I wouldn’t add the value of his replacement; I would consider instead how much more the MVP candidate did for his team than his replacement would have done in those 105 games. Maybe I’m old-fashioned.

Mike K.
Guest
Mike K.
4 years 11 months ago

I think you’re supposed to assume all-else-equal.

Telo
Guest
Telo
4 years 11 months ago

The MVP lens very slightly obfuscated the replacement issue, for the exact reason you bring up. Some people just have different ideas about MVP that don’t directly correlate to “how much value you provide your team”, which is how I interpreted the aim of the exercise.

Telo
Guest
Telo
4 years 11 months ago

But it looks as if Tango really did want to look at in terms of MVP voting for some reason.

Telo
Guest
Telo
4 years 11 months ago

And it’s articulated here, I skipped over it too quickly:

My question however had one additional parameter: MVP. And that is, how does someone CREDIT a player for those games. Basically, some people are uncomfortable basically GIVING a player 0.35 runs for each missing game. So a guy misses 57 games, but he “earns” 20 runs anyway.

Remember though, in reality, a team EXPECTS 20 runs to be earned just by playing 57 games, because that’s how many runs the scrap heap player will generate. On average.

So, I was trying to find out from people if they are comfortable with replacement level talk even for things like MVP, or, do they still expect those players to “earn” their runs, even if they are being “given away” (i.e., scrap heap players basically perform at the minimum acceptable level, and they’ll earn 20 runs in 57 games).

Todd
Guest
Todd
4 years 11 months ago

Corey, I would assume that the number of runs is position adjusted for the purposes of this exercise.

That said, I agree with your first paragraph, which is why I voted for between 100 and 110. Replacement level isn’t a guarantee. The player who replaces this theoretical candidate could well be average… or he could be below replacement. This candidate has no control over that, and shouldn’t get credit for it. Looking at replacement level for this is useful for roster construction (both MLB and fantasy), but if we’re evaluating the player by himself, he doesn’t get to take credit for a teammate’s contribution.

Scott Clarkson
Guest
Scott Clarkson
4 years 11 months ago

I couldn’t agree more with your analysis Todd. the Most Valuable Player to me is a bedrock that played 140+ games or made 30+ starts. See my post below with a more drawn out version of a similar argument. Especially with regards to the playoffs, do you really want to roll the dice with 110/110 guy if it was health/platoon issues that kept him from playing 160 games? Maybe I’m risk-averse but I’d take someone 10% less productive per PA rather than risk the roughly 33% chance I can’t/shouldn’t use this 110/110 player in a given situation.

Blue
Guest
Blue
4 years 11 months ago

Exactly. I don’t care if its Barry Bonds, if he only plays 110 games he isn’t going to get my MVP vote. It isn’t a contest for “most valuable roster slot.”

JP
Guest
JP
4 years 11 months ago

You can turn the thought process around and break “value” into run creation pace (runs / games played) and durability (games played / 162 games). Then you can assign weights to how important each is.

Based on the assumptions above (that the “105 runs in 105 games” player is equal to a “125 runs in 162 games” player), the weights break out like this:
PACE = 0.606
DURABILITY: 0.394
For the first player = (162 * .606) + (105 * 0.394) = 139.5
For the second player = (125 * 0.606) + (162 * 0.394) = 139.6

So, in terms of value creation, that suggests that production is ~61% of value and durability is ~39% of value. To me, that estimate of the contribution from durability seems somewhat high, but potentially right.

TK
Guest
TK
4 years 11 months ago

I think there should be an option in the poll for 1st. The rationale being the MVP should be given to the best player in a year provided a decent sample size, and the 105/105 player is better (when playing) that year than anyone else. I don’t agree with this (I went with the “add replacement level” and crudely added 19 runs (57 games x 1/3)). Just saying it should be an option.

Scott Clarkson
Guest
Scott Clarkson
4 years 11 months ago

I am still not quite certain why we should give a player “credit” for what his replacement produces, regardless of what level that production is at.

Durability/Health also has value and here is my argument for why:

Sure, you get more production per AB from player X who produces 110 runs in 110 games vs. any player who produces less than a run per game. In Theory, you would rather have this 110/110 guy come to bat in a high-leverage situation/the playoffs.

I am assuming that he has only played in 110 games for one of the two following reasons:

He’s had some injuries:

Rough math says this player’s health level has only allowed him to particpate in ~68% of his team’s games. Would you want to risk the ~1/3 chance that you have to field the replacement player instead of player X come the playoffs?

Or, He is occasionally platooned/protected from tough RHP/LHP:

Again, is this guy as valuable to your team as a 10% less productive per PA player who you can confidently use in more situations and who cannot be neutralized by bullpen deployment in a playoff situation?

Perhaps my concerns about roster optimization and such are not relevant to the point of this study, but this is a circumstance where I feel value over replacement is different than partial value plus replacement.

Andy
Guest
Andy
4 years 11 months ago

Ditto on this. In the context of the MVP discussion it only really matters what the player in question did. The question to me was, in essence, where does player x’s extraordinary 1 run created per game fit in the context of the relatively small amount of games played by players A-E.

Andy
Guest
Andy
4 years 11 months ago

correction: relatively small amount of games played compared to players A-E.

Neal
Guest
Neal
4 years 11 months ago

I was looking at the AL CY Young race, and this exact issue was on my mind. The question was a little different if you add in the extra variable of starts by others in the rotation they currently have (or had). If you only compare Verlander and Weaver, I don’t want to go too far, Verlander has 14.1 extra innings pitched at this point. How would those innings be added to Weaver’s stats?
1. Not at all
2. Average Starting Pitcher
3. Replacement Starting Pitcher
4. Average current Rotation Replacement (Harren, Santana, Chatwood, Pineiro, possibly others)
Would this only be considered for the 1 missing start?
Would the other innings have to based on relief pitchers? If so, would the standard have to include the same issues?

Jordan
Guest
Jordan
4 years 11 months ago

For me, this was partly about replacement level but mostly about the fact that 105 runs created in 105 games is far more valuable than 105 runs created in 162 games. I know ‘runs created’ doesn’t map onto any actual stat, so this is just an example, but one 12 WAR player is more valuable than four 3 WAR players. Another example: one guy compiles 60 career WAR in 8 seasons, the other reaches 60 in 15. I’d say the first guy is at least in the HoF discussion, and the second was just a nice player for a long time.

Dan
Guest
Dan
4 years 11 months ago

tango,

One thing to consider is that this relationship may not be linear. For example, is the “penalty” for missing 50 games the same as missing 100 games, on a per game basis? Or, does the penalty increase, per game, the more games the player misses?

Greg S
Guest
Greg S
4 years 11 months ago

See, I thought of this question differently when I responded. I looked at this as a question probing the appropriate balance between rate stats and counting stats in an MVP race.

I voted for the consensus pick (between 120 and 130 run player) but mainly because I saw that as the proper balance between the rate-based credit due our 105 per 105 player (a 1 run per game player) vs. the counting-stat-based credit due the 120 and 130 per 162 game players.

On the one hand, we have the overall value of the 120- and 130-run players as indications of a great player performance. However, their run-per-game rates were .74 and .80 respectively.

On the other hand, our 105 per 105 player had a better run-per-game rate of 1.00, a DIFFERENT indication of a great player performance. However, his overall value of 105 was an indication of a lesser performance.

Therefore, I balanced these two competing indications of player performance as I saw fit and slotted our 105 per 105 player smack-dab in between our 120- and 130-run players.

Barkey Walker
Guest
Barkey Walker
4 years 11 months ago

Have you ever noticed that when a guy does go on the DL, the player who subs in is *way* below replacement?

If the 1B player goes on the DL, you usually have to go to your utility infielder who is overqualified to field the position but drastically under qualified to bat as a 1B player–where it doesn’t matter how good you are, you won’t make much run suppression.

Similarly, when you catcher is on the DL, the backup catcher is usually way, way below replacement.

In the other extreme, there is no such thing as a replacement level closer (can you imagine if a club said, “The closer accepted a better contract offer from New York, so we’ve decided to grab a guy with the rule 5 draft for the role.” In fact what happens is that the replacements is absorbed down the line… the setup guy becomes the closer, some other player becomes the setup guy, and everyone moves down a chair in the pecking order.

The only place were the team usually has a replacement level player on hand is starting pitchers and mid-relief where you need a boat load–it’s the only position where a bunch of guys fill the same role .

Oliver
Guest
Oliver
4 years 11 months ago

I object strongly to the use of “Consensus pick” here when not even a majority of voters chose option C.

On a more serious note, considering that playing in 105 games means that our hypothetical batter wouldn’t even qualify for the batting title, it seems likely that he wouldn’t get into the MVP race at all unless the 57 missed games were at the start of the season when his team was floundering and he came back to lead his team to the playoffs.

JoeIQ
Guest
JoeIQ
4 years 11 months ago

I gave him credit for average, but that is probably high. He deserves the credit for what a low end repalcement would have done in that stretch.

YX
Guest
YX
4 years 11 months ago

It’s interesting… but the poll result would center on C no matter what the options are (provided not too landish)

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