How to Go for Broke, Blue Jays Style

A week ago, I was one of many who criticized the Royals decision to trade a package of young talent — including Wil Myers, one of the best offensive prospects in the game — for James Shields, even though I’m a big fan of his and I think he’s likely to provide a significant upgrade to Kansas City’s rotation. The argument against making the trade essentially went something like this; the Royals aren’t likely to be a playoff team in 2013 even with Shields, while Myers himself could have served as a valuable upgrade over the ineffective incumbent.

Today, it seems likely that the Toronto Blue Jays are about to make a very similar trade. According to Joel Sherman, the current incarnation of the big rumored trade is a seven player deal that would ship R.A. Dickey (and stuff) to Toronto for Travis D’Arnaud, Noah Syndergaard, and stuff.

The deal isn’t done, and we don’t even know the names of the secondary prospects going each direction, but it’s probably safe to assume that the structure of this deal is going to be similar to the just-completed Shields trade. In this case, D’Arnaud is Myers, Syndergaard is Odorizzi, and the rest of the stuff is probably going to be some offsetting combination of near term value versus long term potential. While that trade wasn’t Myers-for-Shields, and this trade won’t be D’Arnaud-for-Dickey, both deals are centered around an elite-prospect-for-front-line starter swap.

The 2012 Royals were 72-90 and were outscored by 70 runs. The 2012 Blue Jays were 73-89 and were outscored by 68 runs. The talent exchanges are similar. The cost and team control of the acquired pitchers will be similar, assuming Dickey signs an extension with Toronto, which seems like a pretty strong bet. So, if we ripped the Royals for the Shields trade, how can we not rip the Blue Jays for making a similar trade?

In this case, the prior moves make all the difference in the world.

Preceding the Shields acquisition, the Royals brought in Ervin Santana and Jeremy Guthrie, who both could be roughly league average starters in 2013 if they bounce back from their more recent poor performances. And that’s basically it. They added a couple of pitchers who might add +5 wins between them if you take the most optimistic projections possible, and then added Shields as the final piece.

With a roster that produced a lousy team in 2012, the Royals added something between +5 and +10 wins, depending on how you feel about the three pitchers they brought in. Even if you project significant steps forward for those returning from last year’s squad, it’s tough to project the Royals as better than an 80-85 win team for 2013. And so, in my estimation, the team’s odds of making a playoff run didn’t improve enough to justify the long term cost.

The Blue Jays, of course, have been much more aggressive before making this push for Dickey. They signed a useful second baseman in Maicer Izturis, then signed Melky Cabrera to fill a spot in the outfield. Both players come with legitimate question marks, but both could also be productive everyday players and fill significant holes on the team. In many ways, Izturis and Cabrera are the Blue Jays version Guthrie and Santana, only they cost half as much.

But Toronto didn’t stop there. If they had, I’d be killing them for making this trade too. But, in between adding a couple of stop-gap guys to fill some holes, the Blue Jays traded for every good player on the Marlins not named Giancarlo Stanton. They replaced Yunel Escobar with Jose Reyes. They replaced Henderson Alvarez with Josh Johnson. They replaced Aaron Laffey with Mark Buehrle. They replaced Omar Vizquel with Emilio Bonifacio.

Reyes, Johnson, and Buehrle can probably be reasonably projected for something like +10 WAR between them, and Bonifacio could be a pretty nifty bench guy, providing some value at multiple positions in order to keep the team from having to waste at-bats on replacement level scrubs. They’re not replacing entirely unproductive players, so the net upgrade is a little less than that, but it’s still a huge step forward. That trade, coupled with the Cabrera and Izturis signings, pushed the 2013 Blue Jays from also-ran to interesting potential contender. That trade probably made them something like an 85 win team, even with a few problem spots still on the roster.

For the Blue Jays, Dickey isn’t the entire off-season. He’s not being positioned as the guy who is going to change everything. Toronto’s plan wasn’t to acquire an ace and wait for their young guys to turn into championship players. Toronto’s plan was to overhaul a bad roster, and they did exactly that before they decided to surrender their best prospect to land a frontline starter.

If they complete the deal, Dickey may very well be the piece that turns the Blue Jays from a team on the bubble to AL East favorites. He would be an acquisition at the peak of the team’s win curve. And so, while I’m probably not going to call this a steal for Toronto any time soon, paying this kind of heavy price can be more readily justified.

It might not work, of course. Dickey might not age as well as softer throwing knucklers have. D’Arnaud may turn into a franchise catcher for the Mets. The Blue Jays are taking a huge risk here, giving up some potentially bright futures for a short term upgrade. But, the Blue Jays did enough already this winter to make this kind of short term upgrade worth pursuing. They put themselves in a position to turn a bad team into a good one. They went all-in on 2013, and adding Dickey would be the final piece, not the only piece.

There is a time and a place to cash in future value in exchange for a better chance to win now. With his pre-Dickey acquisitions, Alex Anthopolous put himself in that place, and gave his new roster a real shot to win the AL East if they could get one more big piece. Now, he’s trying to get that one more piece. This is how you go for broke. This is how you change a losing culture.

The price still looks steep. There’s no question that Toronto is giving up some valuable assets in this trade, and will likely regret this move in the long term if they don’t win in 2013. But, by being aggressive in pursuing upgrades before making this kind of future-for-now swap, the Blue Jays have made it more likely that the whole series of moves results in a playoff run. And that’s what makes these kinds of moves worth it.





Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

234 Comments
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jimmy
11 years ago

You could also argue that the Jays were better than their final record/run differential just due to the injuries they suffered in the 2nd half last year (Bautista, Lawrie being the main ones)

Brennan
11 years ago
Reply to  jimmy

Agreed. And though I’ve never been high on Rasmus’ or Arencibia’s offensive potential, both of them missed time and dealt with nagging injuries.

PBI
11 years ago
Reply to  Brennan

Pretty much. There was a long stretch in August and September where the team had 1-2 regulars playing every day due to the number of injuries. Not to mention all the injuries in the rotation (Morrow, Drabek, Hutchison, etc.).

I agree with Dave’s point but comparing the records of the two teams when one team’s record was a more accurate reflection of their talent level while the other was playing back ups for most of the second half doesn’t make much sense.

Neil S
11 years ago
Reply to  Brennan

I remember there being one point in the season where, from among all the opening day starters, only Edwin Encarnacion and Kelly Johnson were in the line-up. Yep, it got that bad.

Colin
11 years ago
Reply to  jimmy

You are right but he makes a very strong effort to equate the too to give the benefit of the doubt to the royals. It makes the rest of his analysis even more powerful.

Dave also didn’t mention that the jays probably have more flexibility over future seasons because of their stronger revenues, so if Dickey backfires its less likely to kill them than the royals

Different Colin
11 years ago
Reply to  jimmy

Sure, they missed time, but basically every team misses time from their best players. The Nationals were without Werth, Zimmerman, Morse, Desmond and Strassburg for over a month each. The Orioles were without Markakis and Hammels for a while. The Reds were without Votto for 50 games. The Cardinals were without Carpenter for most of the season.
Point being, the number of wins lost due to the injuries to Bautista and Lawrie are not necessary an unlikely amount. Point being, the expected number of wins for the given run differential is for the average team with that run differential. While better luck with injuries is possible, it seems a dubious reason to believe a more favorable outcome is likely.

Well-Beered Englishman
11 years ago

With the Nationals, add Storen and Ramos.

Baltar
11 years ago

Yes, and the Rays lost Longoria for half the season and several others.
But the persistence and extent of injuries for the Jays was extraordinary. Many people were even saying the Jays pitching coach must be doing something wrong.
Their likelihood of staying healthier next season is huge.
With Dickey, and assuming they give up only prospects in the trade, they should be a slight favorite to win the AL East, though the Rays, Yanks, Orioles and Red Sox (in approximately that order) should all be tough.

Mike
11 years ago

The nationals are really the only team you can say had a similar circumstance of huge numbers of guys missing significant time. The O’s would have been ruined by these circumstances (which was only 2 guys, one of whom was on pace for a WHOLE 2.5 war season) if not for their once every 20 years luck on winning extra innings games. The other teams you mention had 1 guy out. Every team has a guy out. And it doesn’t even mention that Romero played hurt/won’t be getting more than 50 innings if he doesn’t play better next season as opposed to being one of the worst pitchers in baseball last year. For a month of the season the Jays only had Ricky Romero with his above 5 era from their original starting rotation.

The contention is that the Jays were probably closer to a high 70s win team with normal injuries (low 80s wins with good health) and have upgraded to a high 80s-low 90s win team with normal health if they add Dickey.

Zimmerman missed 17 games all season so it sounds unlikely that he missed a month. Strasburg missed 4 starts total. Their best 4 starters missed 5 starts total (detwiler missed 5 starts as well though that was more about Wang). The rest are just straw men examples that are a disingenuous representation of how unlucky the Jays were especially in the rotation.

Michael
11 years ago

Did the injuries to the nationals occur at the same time? Did they lose 3 pitchers within 5 days? Were they left with 1/9 of their opening day lineup? The Jays were hit with a nasty injury bug and were helpless when competing against the other teams which were moderate to full health.

paint771
11 years ago

I’m not sure if it’s dubious, given that the team with the same basic core but more league-average rate of injuries won 81 and 85 games the two years before, which is a very different situation for the Royals. And, I think you underplay the injuries themselves – this wasn’t a case of impact guys being gone for a month here or there, but literally scratching 3 of the 5 rotation starters (and then 2 of the 3 backup options), not to mention the closer and best hitter, for the season.

You’re right that injuries could always be an excuse, but of course sometimes that excuse is justified. Toronto really got nailed last year above and beyond what you’re normally find with any old 162 game season, and just checking out their record from the years before or even the first half of the season before Bautista and their last remaining pitchers went down, I would say pre-Miami trade this was an 80-85 win team.

That may sound a bit nitpickey, but if you’re starting from that assumption, it puts them in a very different projection range than if you’re assuming they’re just a 70-75 win team to start with. It’s always those last wins that are the hardest to get, but Dickey may well buy them the wins to push a 90 win team to the over rather than under.

Well-Beered Englishman
11 years ago

Michael, while the Nationals’ injuries did not occur all at once, there was a point of time in May where they reached an apex of sorts. On May 6, 2012, the game in which Jayson Werth went down injured for the next few months, Steve Lombardozzi was starting at 3B for Ryan Zimmerman, Chad Tracy was starting at 1B for Adam LaRoche, and the bullpen was missing DLed Drew Storen and Brad Lidge.

Ryan Zimmerman returned the very next game, but Wilson Ramos was knocked out of the season six days later.

Bipmember
11 years ago

The Reds are hardly comparable. They didn’t even loose Votto or half the season, they got unlikely help from Frazier, and, perhaps most remarkably, they needed one one (!) start from a pitcher not in their opening day rotation.

YanksFanInBeantown
11 years ago

And at that “apex” they were much more healthy than the Jays were for the second half of the season.

joser
11 years ago

But the comparison here is with the Royals. The whole point of this article is “Why should our opinion of the pending Dickey/D’Arnaud/etc trade be different from our opinion of the Myers/Shields/etc trade?” In that context the injuries some other random team might have suffered are irrelevant — the Nationals don’t matter in this context any more than the Redskins or Wizards do.

And I don’t believe the Royals suffered the loss of an offensive player as significant as Bautista or a pitcher as significant as, well, pretty much the entire Jays starting rotation. (Arguably the Royals didn’t even have an offensive player as significant as Bautista to lose). So the nearly equal record from 2012 would be misleading even if the Jays hadn’t been busy upgrading everywhere on the diamond prior to this trade. And that, to answer the question, is why our opinion of the two trades should be different.

Jason H
11 years ago

The Yankees played pretty much the entire year without:

Mariano Rivera
Andy Pettitte
Michael Pineda
Brett Gardner
Joba Chamberlain

They missed significant time from:

ARod
CC Sabathia
David Robertson
Mark Texiera

People just forget how unhealthy the Yankees were because they still managed to win a lot of games.

Baltar
11 years ago
Reply to  jimmy

And most of their pitchers.

matthewinger
11 years ago
Reply to  jimmy

All teams suffer injuries, as Boston, New York, and Tampa Bay can tell you. If Evan Longoria (and half the rays at some point), Pineda (assorted yankees) , carl crawford, cody ross….
The list goes on…
You could have made a strong case for the rays for the Playoffs if Evan Longoria had stayed healthy, For example

exxroxmember
11 years ago
Reply to  matthewinger

Santos: gone for the whole season
Morrow: about to months
Bautista: half the season
Lawrie, Arencebia: 1 month each
Drabek 5/6th of the season
Hutch: similar to Drabek
Rasmus and Kelly: clearly hampered by nagging injuries

The Nats’ rotation was actually in very, very good health; their lineup did lose some games played and has a better argument.

Boston was a better example in my opinion. They lost Crawford, Ellsbury, Ortiz, Youkilis, et al for extended periods of time.

TtD
11 years ago
Reply to  matthewinger

Not to dump on exxrox work, but he’s miss a fair bit there.

C: Arencibia hurt in July, D’Arnaud out for season, meant months of Mathis
1B: Lind dealing with back strain all year, Cooper out final two months, Gomes and others got starts
2B: Johnson playing hurt a lot of the season
SS: Escobar mostly healthy but missed a month in bits and pieces dealing with a thigh strain and leg issues
3B: Lawrie missed a couple months via camera-well diving and a jammed finger, reliant on Vizquel
RF:Bautista gone from the week after allstar break, reliant on Moises Sierra
CF: Rasmus playing hurt from mid-June
LF: Healthy mostly, unfortunately this was healthy Eric Thames and then Rajai Davis. Davis missed a couple weeks.
DH: Encarnacion, played carrying an injury all through August and September

SP1: Romero pitched all year, had surgery in the offseason
SP2: Morrow out two months of season
SP3: Alvarez healthy \o/
SP4: Hutchison, out to TJ, replacement Happ breaks foot in September
SP5: Drabek, out to TJ

Closer: Santos out to season long injury
Bullpen: Lost Perez to TJ, Frasor misses time with minor injuries, for the most part not too bad though.

The Jays essentially had one healthy starting player this year (the weakest positon on the diamond), one healthy SP who shouldn’t have been in the majors yet, and a collection of mostly healthy bullpen pieces. You can’t win much with that.