How Trading for David Price Changes the Odds

Something I assume the Rays understand: From here on out, they project to be perhaps the best team in the American League East. Something else I assume the Rays understand: They’ve dug themselves into too deep a hole, so this year the playoffs presumably aren’t in the cards. And that’s why we’re probably going to see the Rays trade David Price within the next couple weeks. He can help them only so much in 2014, he’ll be difficult for them to afford in 2015 and pieces received in return could replenish what’s become an emptier system than usual. This is how the Rays do the Rays. Price’s status is no kind of secret.

Given how good Price is — and given how many teams consider themselves to be in the playoff hunt — the lefty has a number of potential suitors. Price is the premier impact player available, so no one out there can shift the balance like he can. He might be worth 2 WAR in the final two-and-a-half months; then there’s the playoff bonus, to say nothing of 2015. It’s pretty easy to plug in numbers and see how Price could improve any rotation. But how do those improvements translate to changes in the odds?

Another way of asking the same question: Who might stand to benefit the most — in 2014 — from acquiring a guy like David Price?

Everything you’re going to see here is an estimate. In college, in analytical chemistry, we were instructed to count up all the various potential sources of error in an experiment and measurement. There are very real sources of error here. We don’t know how confident we can be about Price’s rest-of-season projection. We don’t know how confident we can be about the rest of the projections. We don’t know how confident we can be about the rest-of-season simulator. We don’t know how confident we can be about the Price improvement in each given staff. Every additional source of error makes the error bars a little bit wider, so I implore you to see these as less like numbers and more like ideas.

Now then, a chart is going to follow, featuring a dozen contenders. I’ve included each team that’s so much as been whispered as a possible Price destination, and then one or two others just for my own enlightenment. Some of these teams are far more likely to end up with Price than others, as, for example, the Angels almost certainly aren’t going to get anything like this completed. I figure it’s better to have too much information than not enough.

The chart shows differences in odds, by percentage points. The starting points are the current odds. The other points are those odds with a fresh, new David Price in the rotation, starting this week. So what you’re seeing are Price odds — current odds. I had to call on David Appelman for help, since he runs the simulator, and in order to set him up, I needed to make some guesses about how Price would fit in with each staff. To make room for Price, I had to take innings away from other guys, and this is another one of those potential sources of error. I also had to estimate Price projections in various ballparks and leagues, so there’s more potential error. Again: error. These numbers are very far from perfect, but they should at least convey more or less the right ideas. So, let’s get into this.

pricetradeimpact2014

In blue, we’ve got gains in playoff odds (by percentage points). In red, we’ve got gains in division-series odds, which means odds of getting past a one-game playoff. And in black, we’ve got gains in odds of winning it all. Every single team, of course, would be improved by adding David Price, because David Price is one of the best pitchers in baseball. But all those teams would improve differently.

By regular playoff odds, no one would stand to benefit more than the Blue Jays, which we’ve got gaining about +16%. I shouldn’t need to remind you of all the potential sources of error, but that seems sensible enough to me, as the Jays are in a tight race for the AL East lead and for the Wild Card. Unsurprisingly, the Jays are said to be in the market for front-level starters, even though lately they’ve been more damaged by injuries to the position players.

It’s the same with getting to a full series. No one would stand to benefit more than the Blue Jays, which we’ve got gaining about +15%. For Toronto, the bulk of the improvement comes from improved odds of winning the division. It’s the Mariners who’d have the biggest gain in terms of winning the Wild Card, and the Wild Card leads to the next round half the time. But there’s a belief out there that it’s not worth selling out if you think your season is going to come down to one game.

And then there’s the matter of championship odds. We’re dealing with smaller magnitudes here, because the playoffs are hard and all the teams are good. In terms of winning the World Series, though, no one would stand to benefit more than the Dodgers, which we’ve got gaining almost +5%. Price wouldn’t do a ton to adjust the Dodgers’ odds of making the playoffs, since they’re already heavily favored to move on, but then you get to thinking about a playoff rotation that starts with Price, Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. By these numbers, Price would most help the Blue Jays, in terms of advancing. But in terms of finishing the job, he’d most help the Dodgers. The Dodgers, too, are unsurprisingly interested in Price’s services, and they have the pieces to get him if they want.

The Angels don’t seem like they’re genuine suitors. Neither do the Yankees, who are kind of screwed without Masahiro Tanaka. The Braves, the Brewers, the Giants, the Orioles and the Pirates would all be better with Price, but those are extremely unlikely landing spots. It seems like this might come down to the Jays, the Dodgers, the Mariners and the Cardinals, with the Indians as a dark horse. By playoff odds, the Jays would improve the most, the Dodgers would improve the least, and the other three teams are around the same place. By division-series odds, it’s the Jays, then the Cardinals, then the rest, with the Mariners bringing up the rear. Finally, in terms of the World Series, it’s the Dodgers, then the Jays and Cardinals, then the Indians and Mariners. Much of this feels intuitive, as it seems like the Indians and Mariners are more than one big piece away from having strong title hopes. The others are more like teams that could get over the top.

About the Blue Jays’ pursuit: It’s unsurprising, but it might cost them an in-division premium. Maybe that’s worth it, or maybe Toronto’s better off chasing Cole Hamels, or someone else. This is an opportunity for Toronto, but Price isn’t the only player on the market.

And that’s something to consider. This is about David Price. This doesn’t consider other, smaller improvements from other, smaller acquisitions. Nor does it consider that other teams in the race would be trying to make their own roster tweaks. So even if the Jays were to add Price, who’s to say the Orioles don’t do something, and the Mariners don’t do something, and the Indians don’t do something? The Price trade won’t actually be made in isolation, but it’s likely to be the biggest trade.

The last thing to keep in mind: These are the numbers right now, during the All-Star break. Once baseball resumes, situations change and the numbers begin to get a more obsolete. They won’t change that much over the course of a day or a series, but the sooner a team acts to acquire Price, the sooner it can have Price and put him in ballgames. Something like 10% playoff odds hang in the balance, on average. Price doesn’t make anybody a shoo-in, but that’s less about Price and more about the nature of baseball, a game that requires contributions from several players every single day if you’re a team looking to go anywhere.

David Price is almost certainly going to change his uniform in the weeks ahead. He’ll land with some contender that’s paid a sky-high tax, and the idea will be that Price will help the team drive to the playoffs and steamroll through them. There’s not a team out there that Price wouldn’t make a good deal better. But there are teams that would benefit more, and teams that would benefit less. It’s only one more thing to think about, as if navigating the trade deadline weren’t already complicated enough.



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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.


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JEB
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JEB
2 years 8 days ago

I wouldn’t bet on the Indians landing Price. Antonetti said he is uninterested in trading for rentals. Great article though Jeff, thanks!

Eminor3rd
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Eminor3rd
2 years 8 days ago

They’d get him for next year too.

JKB
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JKB
2 years 8 days ago

This is a reason why the Padres should not be discounted either. San Diego is looking to unload some good veterans so a combination of veterans and prospects from the Padres is not completely out of the question. The Pads are restructuring from the front office down, and Price could be a great way to keep their current fan base in the seats while they dump some franchise names.

Steven Gomez
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2 years 8 days ago

Just because you’re getting him for more than two months doesn’t mean he isn’t a rental, especially if he’s very likely to jump shit at contract’s end and start a bidding war. He could be a 1.3 season rental rather than a 0.3 season rental for a lot of teams.

Ned
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Ned
2 years 8 days ago

The last time I jump shit was during a basketball game. The towel boys weren’t sure what to do with that puddle.

clint h
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clint h
2 years 8 days ago

the chart excludes the Washington Nationals, I suspect they are a more likely landing spot than several of teams mentioned.

bomok
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bomok
2 years 8 days ago

They don’t have enough prospects.

m
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m
2 years 8 days ago

Neither do the jays really. I wish the they did though.

JArrB
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JArrB
2 years 8 days ago

Oh they have the pieces. Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, Pompey, Dan Norris….and more. I hate the rumoured cost in prospects tho.

Torgen
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Torgen
2 years 7 days ago

I think an important question in these odds calculations is whose place in the rotation is Price taking? He’s less valuable taking Stroman’s spot than Happ’s.

Lucas Gioloto
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Lucas Gioloto
2 years 8 days ago

Really? I have friends.

Za
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Za
2 years 7 days ago

That’s wrong, I think. They don’t have the prospects for Tulowitzki but they do have Giolito, Cole, and Souza, which would definitely be enough for 1.5 years of Price.

Sandy
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Sandy
2 years 8 days ago

The starting rotation is the last place the Nationals need help. Another bat would be much more helpful to them.

Bookbook
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2 years 8 days ago

Sure, but where would they play one?

Sandy
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Sandy
2 years 8 days ago

They could really use another OF–not having an above-replacement-level fourth outfielder really hurt them when Harper was out, and is a big reason they’re not currently running away with the division. If they could move a low- or mid-level prospect for a serviceable fourth outfielder, they’d be in much better shape come playoff time.

JKB
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JKB
2 years 8 days ago

So throw in Zobrist

Clown Commenter
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Clown Commenter
2 years 8 days ago

When they already have one of the best 2B in Danny Espinosa?

David
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David
2 years 8 days ago

There aren’t a lot of bat trades that make any sense. The only short-timer in the lineup is LaRoche. So you could move him, I suppose, and install Zim full time at 1B. That opens a spot at either 2B or 3B depending on where you want Rendon to play. So you’d be moving LaRoche and have to get a better bat back at 2B/3B …. how many of those are there?

Vil
Member
Member
Vil
2 years 7 days ago

I don’t think that LaRoche is the only short-timer. Ian Desmond rejected a big contract extension before the season and settled for a two year deal.

So the Nats could be looking for a SS after this year. Moving Espinosa to SS is a possibility, but that leaves a huge hole at 2B with Rendon moving to 3B next year for good.

In any event, a rotation of Strasburg, Zimmermann, Fister and Gonzalez will be one of the best of the playoff teams, so there’s no urgency to acquire Price.

Remember that the Nats still have 10 years–at least–to go on a TV contract where they essentially get screwed on revenue from the shared TV deal (the MASN deal) with the Orioles. It’s doubtful they give up players over whom they would have club control for a long time, like Giolito, to get a player they probably can’t sign long term.

Ivan Grushenko
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Ivan Grushenko
2 years 7 days ago

I dunno the improvement from Tanner Roark to David Price seems pretty big in the regular season. The improvement from Gio Gonzalez to David Price seems significant in the post-season.

Victimize
Member
Victimize
2 years 7 days ago

I dont see that happening, but if it did that is one filthy rotation. Stras-Price-Zim-Fister and Gio shifting to the pen for the playoffs… wow

Pale Hose
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Pale Hose
2 years 8 days ago

Is there a rough way of translating the change in playoff odds into dollars?

Costanza
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Costanza
2 years 8 days ago

From what I recall in “Diamond Dollars”, a playoff appearance for a team that hasn’t made the playoffs in the last couple years is something on the order of $30-50 million (paid out in increased revenue over the next 5 years).

Phillies' Front Office
Member
Phillies' Front Office
2 years 8 days ago

RE the Jays, I don’t know that they have an impact, Addison Russel type prospect that the Rays would reasonably want in any package. One and half seasons of David Price is probably worth more than 2 seasons of Jeff Samardzija/Jason Hammel, I couldn’t see Tampa parting with him for anything less than something like what the Cubs got.

Just spit-balling:
Toronto: Daniel Norris, Dalton Pompey, (both midseason BA top 50) + intra-organization Top 10 prospect of choice

Brewers: Jimmy Nelson (midseason BA top 50), Tyrone Taylor + top 10 prospect

Indians: Lindor + Frazier

Cardinals: Piscotty (midseason BA top 50)+ Alexander Rays +top 10 prospect. Alternatively, the Rays kick in something to get Oscar Tavares.

SickRick
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2 years 8 days ago

Seems like Carlos Santana plus Danny Salazar is the basis of the package from the Tribe.

The Cards could obviously put together a nice package if they include Tavares.

The M’s could also cobble together a nice package of prospects from Franklin, Wilson, Walker, Paxton, Peterson, Marlette, etc.

I don’t think the Brewers or Jays are really in this one.

Pirates Hurdles
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Pirates Hurdles
2 years 8 days ago

Pirates are the dark horse, they certainly have the talent package and the need. Huntington said he came close to doing something big last year (even called it slightly stupid). He may flex his OF and SP prospect depth. I don’t think its a great idea, but I wouldn’t dismiss it completely.

Phil
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Phil
2 years 7 days ago

Santana is worth more than Price straight up when you factor in cost and team control. Adding in Salazar as well is just overkill. That said, Indians scouts have been told to focus on the Rays prospects over the next few weeks. The Rays might be adding more to their side of the deal.

Zak
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Zak
2 years 8 days ago

The Brewers don’t stand a chance unless they added a cost controlled major leaguer to the package like Wily Peralta or Scooter Gennett plus the guys you mentioned, because they simply don’t have the high end prospects to get a deal done.

munchtime
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munchtime
2 years 8 days ago

The Brewers aren’t trading 2 SP plus 2 more prospects for Price.

Zak
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Zak
2 years 7 days ago

That was my point. The only package the Brewers could offer which would attract the Rays would include current major league players which obviously they don’t want to do.

Chicago Mark
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Chicago Mark
2 years 8 days ago

Do you think the Rays turn down any/all offer(s) for Price that aren’t >/= what the Cubs got for Samardz and Hammell? I’m not certain that trade set the bar for them.

TheRealRyan
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TheRealRyan
2 years 7 days ago

I think they’ll be looking for at least an equal package. Looking at Friedman’s history of trading SP and he seems to get a larger package than most people expect. The Rays received a top 5 OF, top 75 SP and two other good prospects for Shields and a top 30 SP, top 100 SS, two other good prospects and a quality, controllable 4/5 OF for Garza. I expect the return on Price will be huge and probably eclipse that of what the Cubs got for Shark/Hammel.

joser
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joser
2 years 8 days ago

Dodgers can offer some combination of Urias, Pederson, and Seager (all mid-season BA top-20 prospects).

SickRick
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2 years 8 days ago

The Dodgers would already have the best playoff rotation in baseball. There is absolutely no way they are mortgaging their future by dealing 2 of their 3 best prospects for 9 mos of David Price.

Belloc
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Belloc
2 years 8 days ago

Nice try at disguising yourself, Mr. Colletti. I suspect you are just posturing to the media as a negotiating ploy. We know your team is the frontrunner in the Price sweepstakes. But if you are being sincere about your apprehension, allow me a moment to play devil’s advocate.

You know there is no room at the inn for Joc Pederson, and there never will be until 2019. It is unlikely that his trade value can ever get higher. Urias is 17 years old and 160 pounds soaking wet. His comp you can-dream-on isn’t Pedro Martinez. It’s Ron Guidry. The probability that Urias is the next Ron Guidry is remote when compared to the probability that Urias’s arm will turn to jelly. And the probability that Jose Urias is really a 23-year-old named Hector Rodriguez is at least equal to the probability that he will be the next Ron Guidry. Offer up Urias and Pederson to the Rays, and you can keep Seager.

Josh Beckett has a debilitating hip injury in which his best case scenario is a return to the mound with a much shorter stride and crossfire delivery – or else pitching with enormous pain. If any pitcher can make these adjustments effectively, it’s Beckett. But you cannot count on him being the same pitcher before the injury. While serviceable, Dan Haren doesn’t scare anyone and is too homer prone to be starting in a playoff series. He’s a SoCal boy and would be thrilled at this juncture in his career to have a seat in the dugout while his teammates fight for glory.

If Greinke opts out early (as you would hope, because the alternative is that Greinke has completely melted down and your team is saddled with an $80 million sunk cost), then he and Price will become free agents after the 2015 season, which gives you the opportunity for payroll flexibility, i.e. choosing which one to keep and which one to flip into compensation picks. And when Time Warner predictably gobbles up Direct TV and every other competitor, the $8.35 billion in cash the Dodgers are owed will actually be real money. You know you could afford to re-sign both pitchers to long extensions, and it wouldn’t make your bosses blink. And even if you think it’s a stupid move, Magic Johnson will veto you.

Finally, if you play the “we will not tear apart our future” card and simply go with the horses you’ve got, what makes you think this year will turn out any different than last year? Luck? Remember what your forebear Branch Rickey said about luck: “Luck is the residue of design.” With Kershaw, Greinke and Price in the postseason, luck becomes far less relevant.

SickRick
Guest
2 years 8 days ago

a Price deal w/o Seager is far different than Pederson, Urias AND Seager is it not? Still, with the best 1-2 atop any rotation in baseball, I think there is little to gain from adding a good 3. The difference from Ryu to Price in the playoffs just isn’t a difference maker.

The Dodgers best matchup for improving their roster might be the Phils – Ruiz plus maybe Papelbon or Bastardo.

Ivan Grushenko
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Ivan Grushenko
2 years 7 days ago

I disagree that the difference from Ryu to Price isn’t significant, and also that the improvement from Haren to Ryu isn’t significant. They both are. A 5% increase in World Series winning odds seems pretty significant too.

LaLoosh
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2 years 7 days ago

At what cost? Pederson perhaps, but not Pederson + Seager.

munchtime
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munchtime
2 years 8 days ago

David Price is fantastic, but I wouldn’t want to give up Jimmy Nelson for him. Yes, that means the Brewers probably wouldn’t be able to get him. But trading your top prospect/#5 starter is a win-now proposition, and I don’t know if the Brewers are in a position to cash in on that gamble.

Ivan Grushenko
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Ivan Grushenko
2 years 7 days ago

But Jimmy Nelson is not fantastic. The problem is that he’s not enough, not that he’s too valuable.

munchtime
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2 years 7 days ago

I though I was pretty clear, but apparently you misunderstood me.

The Dude Abides
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The Dude Abides
2 years 7 days ago

You didn’t mention Sanchez (Top 20 prospect) or Stroman (former Top 20 prospect recently promoted to the majors). The Rays would likely demand two of Sanchez, Stroman, or Norris.

Paul Clarke
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Paul Clarke
2 years 8 days ago

I wonder how these change compare to adding Price (or a similar quality player) at the start of the season. And by “I wonder” I mean “I wish Jeff would do all the work and tell me”.

Steve-O
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Steve-O
2 years 8 days ago

I believe,about a month ago the Reds had less than 5% chance of making the playoffs according to Fangraph projections. At one point despite the worst record in the AL East the Red Sox were projected to win the division. The Yankees had 40% chance 3 weeks ago. The Dodgers weren’t even close. The projection system here should be taken with a huge grain of salt.

Kenny
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Kenny
2 years 8 days ago

I completely agree. All five teams in the AL east are likely to finish within a tiny distance of each other. While this doesn’t make it that likely that Tampa ends up the winner, it’s sufficiently not out of the question that they may just want to hold on here.

Ivan Grushenko
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Ivan Grushenko
2 years 7 days ago

Ya, if they don’t get back what they want, whatever that is, they don’t absolutely have to trade Price. For one thing even if they don’t win anything with him, they can trade him in the offseason.

Vil
Member
Member
Vil
2 years 7 days ago

Agreed. On Friday, the Orioles–who are 11 games up on the Rays in the loss column–embark on a tough 10 game West Coast road trip.

If the Orioles stumble badly during this road trip, the Rays could make up substantial ground. While Tampa’s hitting is woeful, Price, Cobb, Archer and Odorizzi are currently the best foursome any team in the AL East can line up as starters for the stretch run. If somebody like Boxberger becomes their answer as a closer, why can’t they make a run for the division title?

On the other hand, if they are still 9 or 10 back in two weeks, I think Price is gone.

tz
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tz
2 years 8 days ago

In re-projecting the Dodgers, who got bumped from the rotation? I’m presuming it was Haren.

I wonder if the Dodgers would move Ryu to get Price. The Rays don’t seem to consider themselves ready for a full rebuild, and Ryu’s under control for several years at an affordable price.

Ivan Grushenko
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Ivan Grushenko
2 years 7 days ago

Ok but Ryu isn’t that great. The minute he starts to decline he’s kinda useless.

tz
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tz
2 years 7 days ago

If he was great (or Beckett’s health could be trusted) the Dodgers wouldn’t have a ton of incentive to go after Price

And even if Ryu declines, he’s getting $7M per year plus up to $1M in incentives for 2015-2018, and he’ll just be 31 in 2018. That’s a nice fixed cost for an average pitcher, over a stretch where the Rays may still want to contend.

Of course, the Dodgers would need more than Ryu to get Price. But adding Joc Pederson or Alex Guerrero to Ryu could be attractive enough for Tampa Bay that they don’t ask for all LA’s long-horizon blue chip prospects.

JArrB
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JArrB
2 years 8 days ago

Oh the comment from tz has me thinking re: Jays. It seems very likley that troman has to be included in a package for Price. If Stroman isnt who was removed from their rotation after a trade, I think that greatly reduces the odds calculated

Awesome
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Awesome
2 years 8 days ago

Great article. There are two more things I’d love to see:
a) The affect to Tampa’s chances by losing Price
b) The raw numbers after Price rather than the relative changes

JKB
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JKB
2 years 8 days ago

I am trying to locate the current MLB players that project best in Tropicana field, and to a lesser degree the other MLB East stadiums (RE: Price). Does anybody know where I can access structured data containing all current MLB players and their individual park factors?

Kyle
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Kyle
2 years 8 days ago

I would think it might be beneficial to show proportionally how much he changes the odds relative to before.

Team A: 5% chance now of making playoffs
Team B: 80% chance now of making playoffs

For both teams, their odds go up 15% when adding Price.
Team A: 20% chance w/ Price
Team B: 95% chance w/ Price

I feel as though Price would be far more beneficial to Team A, because he literally triples their playoff chances, compared to a solid increase for Team B, which could go without him and still have a 4/5 chance of making the playoffs.

Kyle
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Kyle
2 years 8 days ago

quadruples*

PackBob
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PackBob
2 years 8 days ago

In this circumstance I think you’d also have to factor in what was given up. If team A gives up top prospects for a still very poor shot at the playoffs, that might also keep them from the playoffs for years to come. Team B would be trying to maximize their opportunity, which may not come again for a long time.

Even though team A sees a larger jump in relative odds, it makes more sense to me for team B to go all in.

Ivan Grushenko
Guest
Ivan Grushenko
2 years 7 days ago

I’m finding it hard to think of a non-Trout/Harper prospect that would keep anyone “from the playoffs for years to come”. Even Addison Russell doesn’t project that well. You’d have to project as a perennial MVP candidate.

PackBob
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PackBob
2 years 8 days ago

It has been a while since I’ve been implored upon.

GMs deal with this kind of uncertainty and more all the time and implore their fans (although never using that word) to understand and have patience. Geoff should have better luck here.

danny c
Guest
2 years 7 days ago

StL gives up S Miller, A Craig, R Grichuck, Cooney or Gonzales for Price
and Zorb…

Ivan Grushenko
Guest
Ivan Grushenko
2 years 7 days ago

Rays say no. If I’m the Rays, I want Taveras plus somebody like Miller or Gonzales.

Vil
Member
Member
Vil
2 years 7 days ago

I doubt that St. Louis would part with Taveras when Holliday is in decline. They’ll need to replace his power in the OF.

Besides, it’s not the Cards M.O. to trade away players that they have club control for somebody who could turn out to be a rental for less than a season and a half.

I’d be very surprised if a Price deal involves the Cards. Their farm system has done a good job of producing arms.

If the Mariners can find another useful bat to add to their lineup, and they don’t stumble terribly in the next two weeks, I could see them parting with T. Walker, Peterson and possibly Franklin to make a run for the World Series. Where that bat comes from is anybody’s guess.

The size of the Cano contract practically screams for them to make a run for it now and in 2015. Why spend all that money on a player whose production will almost certainly decline in a 2-3 years if you’re not serious about becoming champions? A playoff rotation that begins with King Felix, Price and Iwakuma would be formidable.

But they need at least one more decent bat. And that’s problematic. That extra wild card means fewer teams are willing to be sellers.

Famous Mortimer
Member
Member
2 years 7 days ago

Agreed, I can’t see a Cardinals thing happening now. They’re more likely to go for a lesser name, give up less, and rely on another young arm coming through in the offseason. Or figuring out how Shelby Miller can improve his stuff.

21_22
Guest
21_22
2 years 7 days ago

regarding sources of error:

i think all of items mentioned, specifically the projections, could be assigned probabilities and therefore provide a measure of confidence because they were all derived from analyzing a set of data.

i think the wording “we don’t know” is a little misleading since to me it implies that the knowledge is unknowable, when really we dont know because no one did the calculations

jdbolick
Member
Member
2 years 7 days ago

I’m surprised that Sullivan deems the Orioles “extremely unlikely.” I’m not sure if any team could claim more minor league pitching talent, they have room to add payroll, and they have reasonable playoff aspirations. The one negative would be trading within the division. If Tampa is looking for hitting then the Dodgers would seem most likely.

JimH
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JimH
2 years 7 days ago

Has there ever been an all Lefty rotation? If he was with the White Sox next year they would have Sale, Price, Quintana, Danks, and Rodon (if he gets to the majors as quickly as Sale did). All except Price would be on team friendly contracts. Danks is a bit overpaid but comes off the books in 2016 and has been getting better with each start and seems near his pre surgery form.

Marco
Guest
Marco
2 years 7 days ago

I don’t get the Lindor for Price talk at all.

Over the next 8 months, Price gets you 6-7 WAR for $20M. We’re looking at, rough justice, $22m in excess value. (6.5 WAR * $6.5M/war – $20M in salary)

Now take Lindor. Just for laffs, exclude his 3 ARB years and assume they provide no value. Since he’ll be making league minimum, just about all of his contributions will be excess value, so if he provides in excess of ($22M + $1.5M salary)/$6.5MperWAR = 3.6 WAR over three years he’s a better deal.

I’d say he’s a pretty safe bet to eclipse 1.2 WAR per year, and at 3 WAR/yr it’s a HUGE win for the side that ends up with Lindor, providing additional 10’s of millions of excess value.

You have to weigh all of that against the additional playoff odds, but from the Indians’ perspective can the increase from a 23% chance of making the playoffs to 35% really be worth it?

Ivan Grushenko
Guest
Ivan Grushenko
2 years 7 days ago

This is only true if your objective is to maximize excess value, which I hope isn’t anyone’s goal.

Marco
Guest
Marco
2 years 7 days ago

?
Teams like the Indians and Rays can’t compete without having lots and lots of excess value.

Winning is the end result, but it’s tough to win on a lower third budget if you make a habit of giving away 10’s of millions in excess value for 8 month rentals.

HawaiiFO
Guest
2 years 7 days ago

Just for giggles, what if the A’s landed Price? Assume T.B. is happy with Milone, Pomoranz and the three best remaining A’s prospects.

Ivan Grushenko
Guest
Ivan Grushenko
2 years 7 days ago

After reading all these offers it’s weird that the Rays didn’t jump at Addison Russell for Price if they were going to trade him at all.

Preston
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Preston
2 years 7 days ago

Yeah, it is hard picturing them getting a better haul than that for Price. However, there might have been a cost consideration on the A’s part. Samardzija is making 5 million this season and probably will get around 8 next year. Price is making 14 million and will probably command 20 next year. Could the A’s really afford that kind of salary AND give up their best prospect. Maybe not, hard to know.

Vil
Member
Member
Vil
2 years 7 days ago

No. The Athletics definitely couldn’t afford to pay that salary and give up their best prospect.

Radermecher
Member
Radermecher
2 years 7 days ago

Great response,just remember,David Price does not come cheap.

Yilan Dai
Guest
Yilan Dai
2 years 7 days ago

Rather than selling the farm for Price, I think the Dodgers should go after Jon Lester and Koji Uehara of the Red Sox for an alternative. Both are free agents by the end of the year so the Red Sox, whose season is lost, will be more eager to trade them.

Dodgers: OF Joc Pederson, P Zach Lee, P Chris Anderson
Red Sox: SP Jon Lester, SP Koji Uehara

tz
Guest
tz
2 years 7 days ago

As a Sox fan, I’d seriously mull this over. Of course, you’d have to look at the prospects vs. the FA compensation picks the Sox would get (I’d keep making qualifying offers to Koji every year until he starts to decline).

But because I like Pederson, and I don’t think Boston can keep Lester without overpaying at this point, it would be interesting.

As for the Dodgers, Lester would be a big boost, but having Koji for the 8th inning before Jansen makes the bullpen downright scary. Talk about a no-mercy pitching staff.

Mike Green
Guest
Mike Green
2 years 7 days ago

When Jeff is projecting playoff odds, there are assumptions about performance from existing players. So, for instance, in a trade where Price goes to the Blue Jays for Stroman and a minor league prospect, you have to account for the loss of Stroman (who is projected to be the best Blue Jay starter for the remainder of the year from a rate perspective). The Blue Jay playoff odds will not go up by anything like 16% in that event.

John C
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John C
2 years 7 days ago

Based on Price’s last few postseasons, trading for David Price would help a team greatly if their goal is to get to the playoffs and make a quick exit. Price hasn’t looked the same pitcher in October, probably because the Rays worked him like a rented mule to get there and he had nothing left. The best team to acquire Price would be a team that didn’t actually need him to get to the postseason, and who therefore would take it easy on his workload the rest of the regular season.

jim haley
Guest
jim haley
2 years 6 days ago

The Cubs have a stock pile of prospects more than any team in the minors + a few good ones that are playing up now. They just made a nice haul from the A’s & have 3 solid ss. Remember the Archer-Garza deal went to the Rays.

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