Comments on: How Will Chase Utley Age?

By: wobatus

wobatus — Wed, 02 Mar 2011 18:31:56 +0000

I don’t know that I’ve heard much evidence that a player’s tendency to be injured is related to his physical talents. Eric Davis was one of the more physically gifted players of his era but injured all the time. Harmon Killebrew was a bit more of a sloth and didn’t last all that long, but for his era was normal, and he still was playing relatively full season at 36 (ok, he didn’t play 3rd by then, but in his prime he wasn’t injured at the rate Davis was). Sure, a real fat out of shape guy won’t be able to play 2b at 35, but most of the guys we are talking about here were not out of shape (maybe Baerga-I have a friend who claims Bobby Valentine told him baerga’s slide was indeed because he stopped juicing; apologies if that is hearsay twice removed from a perhaps unqualfied source and thus inadmissable). Alomar didn’t seem to lose skills due to injuries and seemed in relatively decent shape at the end, just not productive.

For 2b, you do bring up where agility is relevant, in getting out of the way of an oncoming runner with your back turned. It still seems to me like 2b, like c, is a relatively more taxing position than others. This is something Bill james remarked upon in one of his early ’80s Abstracts. I’ll have to thumb through and see if I can find it. I don’t think he studied it, but gave a list and maybe was just passing on received wisdom. Unlike him though and if he said it he likely believed it.

By: gradygradychase

gradygradychase — Wed, 02 Mar 2011 06:58:17 +0000

No problem.

Chase is sooooooo underrated that a few accidents would never diminish his value completely.

By: Greg H

Greg H — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 18:46:07 +0000

I think the data would show that elite shortstops do not age any differently than their double-play counterparts. Perhaps the notion that second basemen are failed shortstops needs to be revisited. Perhaps a more reasonable conclusion is that middle infielders, due to the unique demands their positions require, do not age well, as opposed to the notion that 2B do not have as far to fall.

Just a quick-and-dirty analysis reveals the following SS with multiple seasons of 7+ WAR in the last 50 years:

A-Rod (6 times, and 2 additional times after moving to 3B)
Ripken (4 times, none after age 31)
Trammell (2 times, none after 29)
Garciaparra (2 times, none after 27)
Hanley Ramirez (2 times)
Jeter (2 times)

Unless I’m overlooking something, that’s the entire list; not any longer than the list of 2B Dave used in his essay.

We aren’t sure how A-Rod would have aged had he stayed at SS instead of moving to the less demanding 3B. I believe his numbers would have been very similar. But his production has been in decline since he turned 32, and if that trend continues, as I suspect it will, he would fit the pattern shared by elite second basemen. Ripken and Trammell both saw rather steep declines in production after 30, especially Trammell.

Ernie Banks had five seasons of 7+ WAR as a SS, his last time coming in 1960. He moved over to 1B after 1961 and was never as productive a player. Banks also showed a drastic dropoff in production after the age of 30 although he had stopped playing SS.

Jeter seems like an outlier, as his two 7+ WAR seasons were ten years apart, the second one coming in 2009 when he was 35. Perhaps Jeter is the George Brett of shortstops, minus the injuries. The jury is still out on Hanley Ramirez since he is still in the prime of his career.

Notable shortstops who never had 7 WAR seasons include Ozzie Smith and Barry Larkin. Smith aged very well and became a far more productive hitter after the age of 30 (the Warren Spahn of shortstops?), although his range declined as one would expect. Larkin, perhaps laregely due to injuries, did not age so well. Robin Yount could be included as a two-timer if his 6.9 WAR in 1983 is rounded up to 7. He moved to the outfield at the age of 30 after his range at SS and production at the plate had substantially declined.

I’m not sure what, if anything, this proves. But I think there is a reasonable conclusion to draw that 2B and SS age similarly.

By: Matt Trueblood

Matt Trueblood — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 08:24:13 +0000

The most instructive comp here is Biggio. That guy took his knocks, too, and often unwisely played through things that slowed him down for parts of seasons. He also had Utley’s penchant for getting the way of the ball.

http://matthewtrueblood.wordpress.com/2010/11/09/daily-dopplers-chase-utley-and-craig-biggio/

By: mattymatty2000

mattymatty2000 — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 06:13:44 +0000

All of which was noted in the article.

By: Klatz

Klatz — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 04:08:35 +0000

I see some flaws in your analysis. If 2nd basemen are taking more of a beating than any other position besides catcher, you really don’t need to make a WAR cutoff, and just compare all 2nd basemen pre and post 32 years (using your age cutoff). Otherwise you’re artificially limiting your sample size.

Also why not compare 2b to SS? If your hypothesis is true than SS should age better assuming they are better athletes to start with. And, depending on numbers you could take a look at all SS who had to transition to 2b. They should also do worse than pure SS.

By: Plasnick

Plasnick — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 02:54:59 +0000

Terrific thought.