How Would Jose Reyes Fit on the Marlins?

In thinking of the likely landing spots for Jose Reyes, few, if any, would have guessed the Florida… er, Miami Marlins. But with multiple reports speculating on such a possibility, it’s worth taking a look at how exactly Reyes would fit in with the Fish.

The biggest question of course, is what do with incumbent shortstop Hanley Ramirez (for this exercise, let’s assume that he will not be traded). It’s no secret that Ramirez isn’t a great defensive shortstop. Over the past three seasons, only Asdrubal Cabrera and Yuniesky Betancourt have worse UZR/150 marks at shortstop than does Ramirez, and only Betancourt, Orlando Cabrera and Derek Jeter have a lower combined DRS. But interestingly, Reyes is not all that much better statistically. Over the same three year span, Reyes’ -4.6 UZR/150 is only marginally better than Ramirez’s -7.3 mark. The same goes for DRS — Ramirez is worse (-20), but the margin for error between him and Reyes (-12) is within a win.

So can it all be so simple as just leaving Ramirez at third and finding a new position for Reyes? No, it really can’t. If that was the end of the evaluation, you could make a case for leaving Hanley at shortstop out of respect for the fact that the Marlins are his team. But it’s not. Ramirez no longer has a prototypical shortstop body, and it shows in the 2011 Fans Scouting Report. While Ramirez had an average 53 rating this season, Reyes’ 76 tied for 19th best in the game. Reyes has both the statistical and subjective edge.

If you did leave Ramirez alone though, you would probably move Reyes to second base, where he played some in 2004 during the great Kaz Matsui experiment, but that seems silly. You would still have a subpar shortstop, and Reyes couldn’t be expected to play any better than Omar Infante does at the keystone. Moving Ramirez is the better strategy.

So, again, what do you do with Ramirez? From a filling holes perspective, the easy answer is to move him to third base. While you could move him to center field, the Marlins already have two guys who can play out there in Bryan Petersen and Emilio Bonifacio. You’ll notice I didn’t say Chris Coghlan. To refresh your memory, Coghlan had both knee and shoulder trouble last year, and kept the knee injury hidden until the Marlins were ready to send him to the Minors. In a related story, Coghlan is no longer central to the Marlins’ plans, and very well may be out of a job. So for now, let’s just consider Bonaficio and Petersen.

Bonaficio isn’t any great shakes, as his .372 BABIP probably isn’t sustainable, and if that regresses he will likely be below average both offensively and defensively. Petersen on the other hand has a chance to be at least league average. Across the past two seasons, spent cumulatively at Triple-A and the Majors, Petersen has walked 10.5% of the time. Combine that with what has been good defensive play to date and you have a pretty decent player (which isn’t to say he will wrest playing time from Bonaficio immediately — Emilio’s 40-steal campaign is shiny enough that he will probably have to play his way out of a job).

On the flip side, there is little indication that Matt Dominguez is ever going to be ready to hit at the Major League level. After putting up some respectable numbers at Double-A in 2010, it was thought that Dominguez would be given the starting nod at third base out of the gate last year, but the Marlins wanted to see him handle Triple-A pitching, and he never really did that. And while it’s usually best to ignore gaudy stats put up by hitters in the Arizona Fall League, it’s never a good sign if a hitter flops there. And unfortunately, that’s exactly what Dominguez is doing, as he has hit just .216 with a .272 on-base percentage in his 18 games there thus far.

Now, I know what you’re saying — Ramirez didn’t exactly hit well last season either, and then he needed shoulder surgery in September. But since I am not a doctor, nor do I converse with them, I tend to leave the medical evaluations to my good friend Will Carroll. Here’s what Carroll had to say about Ramirez in September:

Ramirez’s shoulder will be tightened up and he should be back in plenty of time for spring training. Players have come back from this type of surgery well, with B.J. Upton the best example.

Now, I am not saying Ramirez is going to suddenly start producing like he did from 2007-2009. But if he can replicate his 2010 numbers — and I think there is a good chance that he can since none of his ratios really took a turn for the worse last season — he is probably going to be in the neighborhood of four wins better than Dominguez, unless he falls apart defensively. Which he shouldn’t.

Third base is not only the best place for Ramirez from a lineup hole perspective, it also fits his game best. One of the main benefits of sliding from shortstop to third base is that generally speaking, you don’t need as much range to handle third. Sure, you have to charge on bunts, but by and large, it’s a reaction position, there isn’t nearly as much running involved as there is at short (or in center). And that might be just what the doctor ordered for Ramirez. Both for his career and across the past three seasons, his bugaboo has been range. His RngR is easily the worst piece of his UZR puzzle, as he compiled a -11.1 RngR the past three seasons, compared to a much more palatable -3.1 DPR and -0.8 ErrR. And since Ramirez has the arm strength to handle third, it becomes clear that third base, and not center (or second), will be his best bet.

Getting back to Reyes, if he hits the way he did in 2011, he would be an upgrade over Ramirez not just defensively, but offensively as well. Again, though, let’s be conservative and say instead of a 149 wRC+ he comes down to the 130-135 wRC+ range. This is likely to be slightly better than what Ramirez puts up as well. As an added bonus though, Reyes would help better align the batting order. Bonaficio/Petersen could be slid to the number two slot, and Infante and his .311 career wOBA (.305 last year) could be moved to the bottom of the lineup where it belongs. Here’s what a Reyes-filled would probably look like:

SS Reyes
CF Bonaficio/Petersen
3B Ramirez
RF Mike Stanton
LF Logan Morrison
1B Gaby Sanchez
C John Buck
2B Infante

Now, if I was going to construct a more optimal lineup, I would probably hit Morrison second, slide Bonaficio/Petersen down to seventh and move Sanchez up a spot. This would keep a mostly left-right balance and stack the team’s best hitters at the top of the order. But new Marlins skipper Ozzie Guillen is fresh off a season where he hit Juan Pierre leadoff 154 times, so I’m trying to be as realistic as I can be.

So let’s tally this up. Conservatively speaking, Reyes figures to upgrade shortstop by about a win, and Ramirez figures to upgrade third base by about four. In case you’re having trouble adding that up, that’s a five-win upgrade for the Fish, and it could be even better than that. Last season, the Marlins finished in last place for the first time since 2007, but if they are successful in bringing Jose Reyes into the fold — no matter how they shift their currently rostered players to accommodate him — it will probably be their last trip to the basement for a few more years.

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Paul Swydan is the co-managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for ESPN Insider. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan.

18 Responses to “How Would Jose Reyes Fit on the Marlins?”

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  1. anon says:

    have an all-star shortstop with poor fielding metrics.
    get an all-star shortstop with better fielding abilities.
    move better fielder to third base anyway.

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  2. Anthony says:

    That sounds like A-Rod/Jeter all over again, anon.

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  3. Keystone Heavy says:

    At Hanley’s current rate of decline, by 2014 he will create 1.7 outs per PA and will sit in the dugout while the Marlins are on defense. I think that by the last month of 2012, he will have stopped carrying a bat to the plate altogether, and will average 2 balls kicked into the outfield per 3 game series.

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  4. Husker says:

    A very good article. I had thought moving Ramirez to CF would be best, but you have convinced me otherwise.

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  5. Luke says:

    I’d rather have Hanley at third for my fantasy team. Can they take that into consideration?

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  6. Drew says:

    +1 for wu tang link

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  7. MC says:

    I’m a bit surprised that Reyes is signing for 18-20 million per year and only five years. I thought that teams would be more aggressive.

    I think at these prices it might make sense for the Mets to match.

    Also, if Reyes signs with Miami the Mets get hosed in terms of draft picks because the Marlins have a protected top 15 pick. So the Mets get a sandwhich pick and a 2nd round pick, which is basically terrible. Either they should’ve traded him at the deadline or they should match, IMO.

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    • Who? says:

      Reyes was on the DL with a hamstring injury from 7/2 to 7/19 which really hurt his trade value. After he came back he really struggled. Teams were probably wary of trading their best prospects for Reyes at that point.

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      • MC says:

        Perhaps but this wasn’t the official story which was as I understand that the Mets front office didn’t want to make the team totally uncompetitive (w/o Reyes).

        Anyway I can’t imagine why the Mets wouldn’t match the Marlins’ price. Even if you overpay a bit by going 5 years, at 18 or 20 each…who cares?

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  8. cs3 says:

    ” Bonaficio isn’t any great shakes, as his .372 BABIP probably isn’t sustainable, and if that regresses he will likely be below average both offensively and defensively. Petersen on the other hand has a chance to be at least league average. ”

    I think you are selling Bonifacio well short.

    Sure his BABIP was really high last season but that not totally unexpected from a player with his speed that slaps the ball to short on a regular basis to beat out infield hits.

    His BB% (9.2%) and OBP (.360) were both well above league average, and his K% was right in line with league average. His speed is just a bonus.
    And I dont think the metrics have any idea how good/bad a defender he is since 2010 and 2011 were basically polar opposites of each other and because hes played so many different positions over the past 2 yrs.
    All in all, he seems like a pretty valuable player to me.

    You really expect Petersen, a guy who has a .312 wOBA and just 266 career MLB AB’s, to outproduce a guy who put up a .341 wOBA over 600+ AB’s just last season?
    You can regress Bonifacio all you want, but thats just downright unlikely.

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    • Paul Swydan says:

      The just released (they were released after I wrote this article) Bill James 2012 projections look as such:

      Petersen: .327 wOBA
      Bonaficio: .312 wOBA

      I get that Bonaficio has played multiple positions, but guys that play a ton of positions usually do so because they are not good enough to stick at one.

      Bonaficio’s BABIP in ’11 was his highest mark since High-A ball, and was higher than his highest Major League mark by nearly 40 points. Sorry, but I have to disagree. However, thank you for taking the time to read and for your comment.

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      • cs3 says:

        perhaps the most important factor (that i didnt mention before) is that last year was Bonifacio’s age 26 season so he was just entering his prime… and also happened to be the first season in which he played every day.

        also in 2008 he had a .373 BABIP in AAA over 400+ AB’s (exactly matching his 2011 MLB number) so its not like hes never done this before.

        its likely that he has improved his skill level and will sustain some of that success. projecting a wOBA that low just seems overly conservative.

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    • j_ordan says:

      i think if you look deep into boni’s numbers there are definitely a few things that might support that he could be an acceptable player next season. for one, he dropped his o-swing% three points from 2010, and dropped his f-swing% four points 2010. he was a really reckless swinger in year’s past, and he may have just finally understood how to approach at bats successfully.

      he also learned how to hit a damn fastball. he was negative runs above average on fastballs for his entire career up until last year when he was 10 runs above average. obviously i have no idea why that is, and i suspect pitchers will get around to throwing him more crap, but that’s still a potentially interesting development. i don’t think it’s a coincidence that his LD% was up two points from 2010, and six points from 2009.

      ALL THAT SAID, i think the argument over boni vs petersen is almost a moot point when it comes to the marlins bcuz boni is the marlins number one back up at every position except catcher and first (and if gaby sanchez got hurt, the marlins would move morrison over there and play boni in left). inevitably guys are gonna get hurt, or guys are gonna need days off so boni and petersen will both play a lot anyway.

      altho i do think petersen has a lot of potential, and he’s great from a defensive standpoint, and boni makes more sense as a super super sub than a starting player, unless his second half was actually for real.

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  9. j_ordan says:

    re hanley in center

    i don’t know if he’s athletic enough to play center and not be a disaster there, i think it would end up being a situation like matt kemp or adam jones where the guy just looks “right” out there but isn’t any good (not that athleticism is kemp’s or jones’ problem).

    also i have my doubts over whether or not hanley would ever stay healthy enough in center. his season ended this year because he dove for a blooper over his head and fucked his shoulder up (again) upon impact. third base just makes the most sense.

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  10. thomas says:

    but Bonaficio’s xBABIP was .361 he dosen’t seem due for much regression.

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  11. thomas says:

    Using Bradley Woodrum’s FIB calculator, Bonaficio should hit 103 and Petersen should hit 106. However, that’s a very small difference and I’m not sure Petersen can handle CF .

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  12. Antonio Bananas says:

    the Marlins don’t have some latin SS in their farm right now that will be better, cheaper, and healthier than Reyes over the next 5 years? Big deal, Reyes has a good year at age 28 for the first time in about 3 years. Now he’s going to decline. His main tool (speed) is going to go first and quickest, which brings down everything else he does well. Plus as he gets older he’ll get hurt more. Why would the Fish waste money on him?

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  13. Telo2 says:

    I really can’t beleive that this article is comparing bonafacio to peterson. When given a chance Bonafacio one of the most exciting players in the game. This was his first full season in the majors and he put up redic numbers. He has the speed, the defense, and gets on base at the top of the order. A lineup with bonafacio, reyes, hanley, stanton is pretty disgusting. Who cares about Peterson.

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