In Season ZiPS Projections

Daily updated in season projections of the ZiPS variety are now available in all the player pages!

There are two lines, the RoS line which is what a player is projected to do in only the remaining part of the season and then the Total line which is what a player’s total season stats are projected to be at the end of the season.

All the credit goes to Dan Szymborski of Baseball Think Factory for letting me implement his projection system! And a hat-tip to Dave Cameron for pointing me in the direction of his in-season projection tool! If you want to mess around with in season projections yourself, you should download his spreadsheet here: 2009 ZiPS In-Season Projection Tool

In other news, we’ve hidden all the pre-season projections by default but you can still click on the show projection button to check them out. If they’re not hidden by default, just hit the refresh button on your browser or hit F5.




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David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.


23 Responses to “In Season ZiPS Projections”

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  1. dan says:

    ZiPS still shows even when you click to hide the projections (and after pressing F5 a few times too)

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  2. The updated ZiPS or the pre-season ZiPS?

    There’s currently no way to hide the updated ZiPS projections, but I can probably get a button in there pretty soon.

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    • dan says:

      Now it shows the two updated ZiPS projections (RoS and Total) all the time, with the pre-season one hidden. Why not just make the two new ZiPS lines part of the overall projection button, so it’s hidden by default unless you want to see all the projections? Just a suggestion.

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      • Unless there’s a ton of people who want them hidden by default, I want to keep them visible by default because they’re brand new and if I hide them, I’m betting the majority of the people who visit the site will never know they’re there.

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      • dan says:

        I see… didn’t realize what you were going for there.

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  3. Ryan says:

    is there a way that you can add a cookie or something so that our preferences will stick with our computer? it would be awesome if you could “hide projections”, “hide zips” and “hide minor leagues” and never have to see them unless you want to. love the additions of in-season zips.

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  4. Trey says:

    Can you explain the Zips tool in a little more detail? Specifically, how much does it take current batting trends and production into account for a hitter through the first month+?
    For example, is BJ Upton now projected to hit .239 by year end because of his terrible start or does that .239 represent just the difference between his pre-season projections and his current stats? Just trying to figure out how a player’s skill set (hot/cold start or “on pace”) factors into the equation.

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    • Eric Seidman says:

      Trey, here’s a brief explanation… Upton was projected by ZiPS to post a .271 BA in 2009. In 25 games so far, his BA is .167. What these in-season projection systems do is calculate a moving true-talent level. So combine the weighted prior three years and comparables with however else ZiPS is calculated (a .271 BA) with this season (a .167 BA) and it says his true talent level from now until the end of the season is a .257 BA. However, we cannot just erase the .167 that has already occurred, so an updated .257 true talent BA coupled with the ugly .167 BA start in 25 games produced a .239 BA.

      He is projected to be at .239 by year end based on the in-season update to his true talent level thanks to this year’s data being weighted the heaviest, bringing down what we expect him to be able to do… these lowered expectations coupled with the previously poor numbers is what pegs him at .239.

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  5. jinaz says:

    David (and Dan),

    Thanks for this. I loved being able to use Sal’s in-season Marcel calculator last year, and this makes that whole process even easier, and (assuming it works as it should) it uses a better projection engine. You’ve basically automated everything I used to have to do myself–fielding, WAR, and now in-season projections. Thanks!
    -j

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  6. Skoodog says:

    Obviously these are computer-generated numbers as Manny’s going to have a hard time hitting 400 ABs in his remaining 85 games (4.5 AB per game vs his 3.4 up til now), unless they are moving him to leadoff.

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    • Heh, well, no one is calculating anything on FanGraphs by hand. I’d never get anything done and would probably still be working on the 2005 stats.

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      • Dave Cameron says:

        Get your nose out of the spreadsheet, Appelman.

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      • neo says:

        I certainly understand that you can’t do things manually overall. But if there was some way to incorporate known DL time or suspensions to the data that would make this even better.

        So, part would stay automated: “weighted prior three years and comparables with however else ZiPS is calculated with this season results to fin true talent level from now until the end of the season”

        But the manual part would be putting in a list of DL/Suspended information to fix the Manny problem. Note: this wouldn’t be anticipated DL/Suspended, since that is impossible. It would be actual DL/Suspended, based on data from mlb.com.

        Probably still too much manual work, but that would be incredible.

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  7. Dan says:

    ZIPs really, really likes Ian Stewart.

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  8. Skelly says:

    I might be missing it, but is it possible to get the leaderboards for the ROS projections of ZIPS?

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  9. Skelly says:

    Thanks for adding it!

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  10. Alex says:

    Is there some way to download a full set of in-season ZIPS projections, rather than having to get the data player by player?

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