The Cubs have signed Bob Howry to a three year, 12 million dollar contract. For the past two years, Bob Howry has been one of the better relievers in the American League by posting back to back sub-3 ERA seasons. Let’s see if there’s any chance he can make his sub-3 ERA, a three year occurrence.

His strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9) have been fairly inconsistent. In 2004 he had an excellent K/9 of 8.2, but in 2005 it dropped to a below average 5.9. Despite the drop in his K/9 he was able to keep a high strikeout to walk ratio (K/BB) by decreasing the number of walks he allowed.

The one area where I see a real problem is his Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP). In 2005 he had a BABIP of .222, which is incredibly low. It was so low that it puts him in the 99th percentile of all pitchers. Considering the league average is right around .300, I’d say there is absolutely no chance of him repeating his .222 BABIP.

I can’t say I’m too optimistic that Bob Howry will have another sub-3 ERA season. The decrease in his strikeout rate is somewhat troubling as it means he’ll have to be extra careful not to walk batters. Then there’s the unsustainable BABIP which I wouldn’t be too surprised to see above .300 next season considering how lucky he was in 2005. Don’t think that a move to the National League will help him either as NL relievers actually had a higher ERA than American League relievers last year. Yeah, I’d say the chances of Bob Howry having another sub-3 ERA season are pretty slim.

A couple of weeks ago, Javier Vazquez formally requested to be traded. If the Diamondbacks don’t trade him by March 15th, he will have the option to become a free agent. Up until being traded to the Yankees in 2004, he spent six years in Montreal where he was one of the better pitchers in the National League. After spending one devastating year with the Yankees, he was sent to the Diamondbacks where he showed vast improvement, but failed to completely recapture his pre-Yankee days. Will Javier Vazquez ever return to being the dominant pitcher he was in Montreal?

If you look at his strikeout to walk ratio (K/BB), it actually looks like he already returned to his pre-Yankee days. However, the same cannot be said for his ERA.

The main reason for his failure to post such a high ERA despite his very high K/BB is that he gave up 35 home runs, the second most in baseball.

For Javier Vazquez to completely recover from his year as a Yankee, he’ll have to reduce the number of home runs he allows. A move to a pitcher friendly park would certainly help him in this area. Other than his home runs, it looks like he’s back on track to be a dominant pitcher.

Peter Gammons is reporting that the Marlins’ Josh Beckett will be heading to Boston along with Mike Lowell in exchange for Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez and a player to be named. Yesterday I talked about Josh Beckett‘s considerable upside, but Mike Lowell is coming off the worst year of his career. What should Red Sox fans expect from Mike Lowell next season?

As you can see, Mike Lowell had an extremely low batting average (BA) last season which was way out of line with his career averages. Most likely this was the result of an equally low Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) of .256. So, was he just incredibly unlucky last season, or was this indicative of something else?

I’m leaning strongly towards unlucky. His walk to strikeout ratio (BB/K) remained a very good 0.79. Actually, the last time someone hit for such a low batting average with such a high BB/K was Paul Konerko in 2003, and he just had back to back 40 home run seasons. However, unlike Paul Konerko in 2003, Mike Lowell‘s Isolated Power (ISO) never reached previous levels at any point during the season.

I suspect that Mike Lowell‘s batting average will bounce back next year in a big way. As for his power numbers, I think he’ll definitely hit more than his 8 home runs in 2005, but I’m hesitant to say he’ll completely revert to 2004 form. Moving to Fenway Park may also give his power numbers a boost. Either way, there’s no doubt in my mind that in 2005, Mike Lowell was just unlucky.

Apparently the Marlins are trying to move 2003 World Series hero Josh Beckett in an attempt to cut their payroll. The two possible trades would be Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell to the Rangers for Hank Blalock and John Denks, or Peter Gammons suggests he could be sent to the Red Sox for Hanley Ramirez and either Jon Lester or Anibal Sanchez.

Josh Beckett has at times been compared to a young Roger Clemens. Unfortunately, much of his young career has been marred with blister problems. In 2005 he pitched in 29 games, the most of his career, and posted a 15-8 record with a 3.37 ERA. How much more can be expected of him?

Josh Beckett‘s strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9) have been on a slight decline the past two years, but it still remains an excellent 8.4. That’s good enough to rank him among the top 10 of all starting pitchers in 2005.

Fortunately, any decrease in his K/9 has been offset by a greater decrease in his walks per 9 innings (BB/9). There is still a lot of room for improvement here and he’s heading in the right direction. If you take a look at his strikeout to walk ratio (K/BB) graph below, you can see every year he has made slight improvements.

Josh Beckett will only be 26 years old next season. The only thing stopping him thus far has been his blisters and he was only bothered by them once last year. Each year of his young career he has taken small steps forward and I expect that next year he’ll take yet another step forward.

Apparently the Padres are interested in re-acquiring David Wells from the Red Sox. Over the past four years David Wells is tied for the 8th most wins in baseball with a record of 61-29. Over that same time period, he has had the most run support of any player in baseball with 605 runs, a whopping 4.94 runs per start. What I’m trying to infer is that he’s been the benefit of some pretty gaudy run support and maybe he hasn’t pitched quite as well as his record indicates.

You certainly can’t accuse David Wells of giving up many free passes. Over the past three years he’s walked 61 batters in 91 starts. He only struck out 5.2 batters per 9 innings last year, but when you’re walking only 1 batter every 9 innings, you can live with a lower strikeout rate. As you can see in the graph below, his strikeout to walk ratio (K/BB) is extremely high.

David Wells will be 43 years old next season, which is getting up there for a baseball player. It’s hard to pinpoint any specific areas of decline on his graphs, but if I had to point to one thing it would be his opponent’s batting average (AVG). It looks like he might be starting to become a more hittable than he used to be. This worries me for a pitcher that relies on keeping the ball in the strike zone.

While David Wells may be exceptional at limiting walks, he’s pretty average at everything else. A move to PETCO Park would certainly help him give up less home runs, but I doubt we’ll see another 15 win season from him next year.

Yesterday it was reported that the Mets will trade Mike Cameron to the Padres for Xavier Nady. The trade is contingent on Mike Cameron successfully passing a vision test since his 2005 season ended prematurely after butting heads (literally) with Carlos Beltran. Let’s take a look at how he might fare with a change of scenery.

The two nice things about Mike Cameron are that he has both power and speed. He’s been a 25 Home Run / 30 Stolen Base guy on a few occasions. Unfortunately, as you can see from the graph above, he doesn’t hit for average. He did however hit for a career high .273 last season, despite his falling walk to strikeout ratio (BB/K).

I do find this downward trend in his BB/K rather disturbing as it is nearing unacceptable levels. This decline was masked by a very high Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP), which explains the career high batting average. Assuming his BABIP returns to a normal level next year, he’ll probably hit closer to .240 than .270.

As for his power numbers, a move to PETCO Park certainly won’t help him as it’s the most difficult park to hit home runs in. Yet, I honestly don’t see much of a decrease since he’s played in Safeco Field and Shea Stadium the past 6 years which are also difficult parks to hit home runs in for right handed batters. Also, the Padres like to steal as much as any team, so I don’t see him stealing any fewer bases. All in all, he should have a very typical Mike Cameron year; decent power and speed, with no consistency to get on base.

Nomar Garciaparra has had a rough couple of years. He went from being one of the premiere shortstops in the baseball, to an oft injured scapegoat. He didn’t even get to celebrate a World Series championship with the team he spent so many years with. He’s played only143 games the past two seasons, but how did a healthy Nomar Garciappara perform when he returned for the final two months of this past season?

Surprisingly it looks like he was back to his old self, as far as batting average goes. After he returned from his groin injury, he batted a very old-Nomar like .318. Not only was he hitting for average, but he was also hitting for power. In August and September he hit all of his 9 home runs.

If Nomar Garciappara can remain healthy for an entire season (and that’s a big if), it looks like he still has the ability to be one of the best offensive shortstops in baseball. When he finally does play an entire season, I’m sure there will be a comeback player of the year award waiting for him.

Scott Eyre did something incredible today. He received one 10th place MVP vote to become the first relief pitcher to receive a vote without recording a single save. Please feel free to use this gem of trivia to stump everyone you know. Someone in the Baseball Writers’ Association of America is a huge Scott Eyre fan. He actually had a nice season, going 2-2 with a 2.63 ERA in 68 plus innings of work. Let’s see if he has any hope of receiving a vote next year.

Last season, Scott Eyre was able to get his walks per 9 innings (BB/9) down to a career low 3.4. While this is not a spectacular number, when coupled with his solid strikeout rate of 8.6, it makes him a successful pitcher.

He was also able to get his home runs per 9 innings (HR/9) down to a career low. He only gave up 3 home runs the entire season. This is where I see danger flags. Over the past couple season, Scott Eyre has transformed himself from a groundball pitcher to a flyball pitcher.

I think it’s highly unlikely that he will be able to allow as few home runs as he did last season, especially with his increased fly ball tendencies. Even though this will lead to an increase in his ERA, I think he’ll still be able to have a solid season. Unfortunately, I’d say the chances of Scott Eyre getting another MVP vote are just about zero.

Rumor has it that the Cubs are close to trading for the Marlins’ center fielder Juan Pierre. We all know about Juan Pierre’s speed. He was second in the National League in stolen bases and over the past four years he led the majors in them. In 2004 he hit for an excellent .326, but this past year he had his worst season, hitting only .276. Should Juan Pierre be expected to rebound next season?

Despite the downward trend in his walk to strikeout ratio (BB/K), he’s still in the top 20% of all batters. If it starts to dip any lower then we can start to worry. For now it looks like he just had an off year, much like the one he had in 2002.

The area he dropped off the most was his batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Just like his batting average, his BABIP was the worst of his career. What I find most odd about this is that 25% of his balls in play were line drives. That’s a pretty high line drive percentage.

While it’s not unusual for a batter to hit for a high line drive percentage and a lower batting average, I would consider it “unlucky”. Taking that into account and his lower than usual BABIP, I’d say Juan Pierre had a fairly unlucky season altogether. I’d expect Juan Pierre to rebound nicely in 2006.

MLB.com asks this about free agent Abraham Nunez: “Nunez is one of the harder-to-read players on the market. Did he reach a new level in 2005, or was it a fluke?” Good question MLB.com. In Abraham Nunez‘s first season with over 400 at bats, he had a career high batting average of .285. That’s a huge improvement over his previous career average of .238.

There’s nothing special about his walk to strikeout ratio (BB/K). He had a terrible 2004 season, but rebounded to career averages in 2005. This doesn’t account for the increase in his batting average.

His Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) was the best best of his career. It was also way out of line with his career average. Furthermore, 25% of the balls he hit were line drives; once again, way out of line. Both of these do account for the rise in batting average.

I think it’s highly unlikely Abraham Nunez will repeat his .285 batting average next season. He probably won’t hit for a dismal .238, like he did in 2004 either. Teams looking for a versatile infielder or utility man could do a lot worse, but they should think of him more as a .250-.260 batter.

There’s been a lot of talk recently about the Mariners potentially signing the Japanese catcher Kenji Jojima. I was able to track down some of his statistics.

Year	AB	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	SB
1995	12	2	2	0	0	1	0
1996	58	5	14	2	4	9	1
1997	432	49	133	24	15	68	6
1998	395	53	99	19	16	58	5
1999	493	65	151	33	17	77	6
2000	303	38	94	22	9	50	10
2001	534	63	138	18	25	95	9
2002	416	60	122	18	25	74	8
2003	551	101	182	39	34	119	9
2004	426	91	144	25	36	91	6
2005	411	70	127	22	24	57	3

I wasn’t able to obtain his fielding statistics, but he won 7 straight gold gloves at the catcher position. Not too shabby.

Taking a look at his slugging percentage (SLG) graph, you can see he is well above the MLB average using his Japanese statistics. This probably isn’t the fairest comparison, but I think it still gives you a good idea of where he stands.

In addition to hitting for power, he can also hit for average. I wish I was able to obtain his walk and strikeout totals for 2005, but in 2003-2004 he showed an excellent walk to strikeout ratio (BB/K) of 1.07. There’s bound to be some drop off as he learns to adjust to new pitching, but it appears that Kenji Jojima should be capable of being one of the better offensive catchers in the Major Leagues.

Todd Jones really pissed me off last year. See, I had Guillermo Mota in my fantasy league and when he got injured, Todd Jones pitched so well that Guillermo Mota never got his closer job back. Now that Todd Jones is a free agent, should teams expect him to be the lights out pitcher he was last year?

Can you say career year? His 2005 strikeout to walk ratio (K/BB) was way out of whack with the rest of his career. It’s not because he learned to strike batters out, it’s because he learned how not to walk them.

His walks per 9 innings (BB/9) were nearly 2 points lower than it was at any other point in his career. That’s a drastic improvement for a veteran pitcher. In addition, he only allowed 2 home runs the entire season. This can be somewhat attributed to an increase in his ground balls induced. Even for an extreme ground ball pitcher, 2 home runs sounds more like an anomaly to me.

While it seems like Todd Jones was an entirely different pitcher this year, I would approach him with extreme caution next year. A large spike after years of consistency seems extremely fluky to me. Even if his improvement was for real, there’s little doubt in my mind that he’ll never be quite as good as he was in 2005.

Today my faith in the Baseball Writers’ Association of America was restored after they voted to give Chris Carpenter his first Cy Young award. Despite Dontrelle Willis‘ MLB high 22 wins, and Roger Clemens‘ MLB low 1.87 ERA, Chris Carpenter was actually the superior pitcher in 2005.

If you compare their strikeout to walk ratio (K/BB) you’ll see that Chris Carpenter was a good deal more effective than his counterparts. He led the majors with 27 quality starts and for 4 months in the middle of the season he had 22 consecutive quality starts where he compiled a stellar record of 16-2.

Oddly enough, he was not the same pitcher in the second half of the season as he was in the first half. As you can see, his strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9) took a large dip in the middle of the season and never recovered. He went from a K/9 of 8.9 in the first half to a K/9 of 6.8 in the second half. His walks per 9 innings (BB/9) followed nearly the same pattern.

The dip in strikeouts is definitely something to keep an eye on early next season, but long as he can keep his walks low, there’s no reason he can’t continue his success. Chris Carpenter can live with striking out a few less people, as he’s one of the top groundball pitchers in the league.

If you remember, the Mets did not pick up Braden Looper‘s contract leaving the team without a closer. I wrote about that here if you need a refresher on how mediocre Braden Looper really is. The Mets Plan “A” is to acquire Billy Wagner who is one of the best closers in baseball. Plan “B” seems to be to acquire Danys Baez. Would Danys Baez really be an improvement over Braden Looper?

If you compare their strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9), you’ll see that Danys Baez was a good deal better than Braden Looper last year. Unfortunately, a K/9 of 6.3 for a closer isn’t very appealing. Take a look at the list of closers who over the past 4 years had a K/9 under 8.

Name		K/9	BB/9	SV	BS	S%
Danny Graves	4.3	2.4	85	18	83%
Jose Jimenez	4.8	2.4	69	12	85%
Danny Kolb	5.7	4.1	72	17	81%
Braden Looper	5.8	2.8	98	22	82%
Mike Williams	5.9	4.5	74	11	87%
D. Hermanson	6.0	3.0	52	14	79%
Jose Mesa 	6.3	4.0	139	25	85%
Rocky Biddle	6.7	4.4	46	13	78%
Danys Baez	7.1	3.9	102	23	82%
Tim Worrell	7.2	3.0	58	19	75%
Bob Wickman	7.4	2.9	78	8	91%
Todd Jones	7.4	3.1	43	18	70%
Jorge Julio	7.8	4.1	83	20	81%
Mike DeJean	7.9	4.5	46	14	77%

11 of the other 13 were ejected from closer position for poor performance. If I were the Mets, I’d seriously consider a different plan “B”. I don’t think Danys Baez is the right person to fill their empty closer position.

Today Bartolo Colon was named the 2005 American League Cy Young award winner. He won 21 games with a 3.48 ERA. Not too shabby, but I think Johan Santana should have won his second consecutive Cy Young award instead. Here’s why.

Johan Santana had a better ERA than Bartolo Colon.

He had a better WHIP.

He had a better strikeout to walk ratio (K/BB).

Bartolo Colon did win one category besides wins and that was run support. The Angels gave Bartolo Colon 149 runs, while the Twins gave Johan Santana only 121 runs, a difference of 28. Furthermore, Johan Santana left the game with the lead 19 times and had the bullpen blow his lead 3 of those times. On the other hand Bartolo Colon never lost when leaving the game with the lead. Johan Santana also had 24 quality starts compared to Bartolo Colon‘s 21 quality starts.

So here’s the list of things Johan Santana did better: ERA, WHIP, Strikeouts, Walks, Runs, Innings Pitched, Hits, Home Runs, Losses, Complete Games, Shutouts, Quality Starts, and Pitches thrown per inning. The Cy Young award is supposed to be given to the best pitcher in the league, not the pitcher with the best bullpen and offense. Johan Santana was clearly the best American League pitcher in 2005.

Congratulations to Ryan Howard for winning the 2005 National League Rookie of the Year award! In his first full season he hit 22 home runs in only 348 plate appearances. There are only 25 other active players who hit 20 or more home runs in their rookie year.

Name			Season	AB	HR	SLG	ISO
Albert Pujols		2001	590	37	0.610	0.281
Ryan Howard		2005	312	22	0.567	0.279
Brian Daubach		1999	381	21	0.562	0.268
Jason Bay 		2004	411	26	0.550	0.268
Lance Berkman		2000	353	21	0.561	0.263
Jonny Gomes		2005	348	21	0.534	0.253
Tony Clark		1996	376	27	0.503	0.253
Mike Piazza		1993	547	35	0.561	0.243
N. Garciaparra 		1997	684	30	0.534	0.228
Paul Lo Duca		2001	460	25	0.543	0.224
Preston Wilson		1999	482	26	0.502	0.222
Mark Teixeira		2003	529	26	0.480	0.221
Carlos Delgado		1996	488	25	0.490	0.219
Todd Helton		1998	530	25	0.530	0.215
Juan Gonzalez		1991	545	27	0.479	0.215
Jody Gerut		2003	480	22	0.494	0.215
Nick Swisher		2005	462	21	0.446	0.210
Craig Monroe		2003	425	23	0.449	0.209
Brad Wilkerson		2002	507	20	0.469	0.203
Eric Hinske		2002	566	24	0.481	0.201
Bobby Crosby		2004	545	22	0.426	0.187
Scott Rolen		1997	561	21	0.469	0.185
Chipper Jones		1995	524	23	0.450	0.185
Verno Wells		2002	608	23	0.457	0.183
Carlos Beltran		1999	663	22	0.454	0.161
Travis Lee		1998	562	22	0.429	0.160

He’s in pretty good company. Taking a look at the graph below, you can see his Isolated Power (ISO) increased steadily as the season went on.

Unfortunately, the increased power came at the price of his strikeout percentage which also increased steadily. He was one of the ten worst players in strikeout percentage.

There’s no doubt that Ryan Howard has tremendous potential, especially looking at his power numbers. However, if he wants to hit for power and average, he must learn to pick his pitches better.

I know this guy who drafts Kip Wells every year in his fantasy league thinking that this will be the year he breaks out. I couldn’t help but laugh when I saw he led the majors with 18 losses this year. This was partly due to his insanely low run support. It was the lowest in baseball for the past 4 years. Knowing that, the 18 losses don’t entirely fall on Kip Wells‘ shoulders, but it’s not like he pitched well either.

Over the past 4 years he has managed to increase his walks per 9 innings (BB/9) every single year. His BB/9 now sits at a horrible 4.8, the second worst of any starting pitcher. If you’re going to lead the league in walks, you better have some serious strikeout potential.

Unfortunately, Kip Wells‘ career strikeout rate is rather average. He did show some potential in 2004 when he struck out a healthy 7.5 per 9 innings (K/9), but it’s probably more realistic to expect a K/9 in the mid 6′s. It’s also worth mentioning that he used to be one of the top ground ball pitchers, but in the past two years he’s only been slightly above average at inducing ground balls.

I doubt he can repeat his 18 loss season, but if he doesn’t do something about his walk rate, he will most likely see an ERA over 5 again. If you’re waiting for Kip Wells to break out in a big way, don’t hold your breath.

After playing 15 years in Chicago, the White Sox bought out Frank Thomas‘s contract for 3.5 million dollars making him a free agent. The White Sox would have had to pay him 10 million dollars this season, which apparently they thought was a bit steep considering his recent injury history and age. He’ll be 38 years old next season and he has only played in 108 games the past two years. What should teams looking to acquire Frank Thomas expect from him next season?

Despite his age, Frank Thomas remains a real home run threat. Taking a look at his Isolated Power (ISO), it looks as though he has just as much power as he ever has. While healthy last year, he actually had the most home runs per at bat of any player in baseball.

The power has come at a price though, as he struck out nearly 30% of the time. I somewhat attribute this to his limited playing time last season, but the worrisome trend is still there. Fortunately, his walk rate remains one of the best in the majors.

I think Frank Thomas be one of the bargain acquisitions this off season. Any team that is willing to take a chance on him should be greatly rewarded if he can remain healthy.

Yesterday the Nationals traded Vinny Castilla to the Padres and in return Brian Lawrence. Trading the 38 year old 3rd baseman to make way for Ryan Zimmerman was a good idea, but how excited should Nationals fans get about Brian Lawrence?

Taking a look at his Strikeout to Walk ratio (K/BB), he’s been headed in the wrong direction his entire major league career. In recent years he has struck out around 5 batters per 9 innings; rather unspectacular. But one thing Brian Lawrence does have going for him is that over the past four years he’s been one of the top ground ball pitchers in baseball.

Since he’s only 29 years old, there’s still time for him to have a breakout season. Even if he doesn’t, the Nationals don’t need to him to pitch like an ace, as he’ll likely be pitching behind Livan Herandez and John Patterson in the rotation. All he needs to do is pitch 200 solid innings with an ERA around 4 for him to be a successful acquisition. You can pencil him down for that at the very least.

Matt Lawton tested positive for steroids today and will serve a 10 game suspension since it’s his first offense. Let’s see if the steroids worked.

The first thing that comes to mind with steroid users is power. Over the course of his 10 year career Matt Lawton has shown very average power. There’s not a thing here that makes me want to yell steroids user. Perhaps if we look at his rolling game by game Isolated Power (ISO) we’ll get see some substantial power spikes.

Nope, nothing really eye popping here. He showed some power towards the middle of the season this year, but I was hoping for something more visible, like Brady Anderson‘s out of the blue 50 home run season.

I think Matt Lawton used some defective steroids. He’s been pretty consistent through out his major and minor league career so I doubt he’s been a long term user. If he was tricked into taking steroids (like all steroid using baseball players are), then it’s quite possible it was only for a short amount of time and had no major impact on his stats. Unlike the Rafael Palmeiro suspension, this story has no legs.