Tonight’s All-Star game was by far the lowest scoring All-Star game in the past 5 years, but it certainly did make for an exciting Win Probability graph thanks to Michael Young‘s 2-out, 2-run triple in the top of the ninth. The National League was very close to pulling out a win, but in the end they still remain without a win in the past decade.

In today’s New York Times, Alan Schwarz takes a look at the All-Star selections by Win Probability Added.

“Most back-and-forths about All-Star selections focus on the player’s longtime all-starness (whatever that means) or, toward the statistical end of the spectrum, his runs batted in, his earned run average, even his on-base percentage plus slugging percentage. But if your image of an All-Star is his season-long contribution to victories, then the more blue-collar W.P.A. — Win Probability Added — could make your next All-Star symposium less, well, cheesy.”

As always, you can find the Win Probability sections here:

Win Probability: Individual Game Graphs & Stats
Win Probability: Team Stats

They say that 50 is the new 40, but I like to say that Francisco Liriano is the new Felix Hernandez. Seattle’s Hernandez made a splash in his major debut last year, going 4-4 with a 2.67 ERA and displaying great velocity, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground. Sadly, he has not performed as well in 2006, though his long-term potential remains intact.

This year, Minnesota rookie Liriano is even better than Hernandez was last year, with a 9-1 record and a 1.99 ERA. Like Hernandez, Liriano strikes out batters, doesn’t walk them and keeps the ball on the ground. But some of you may have forgotten that Liriano actually made his debut last year, when his ERA was very similar to Hernandez’s 2006 ERA (admittedly, in only 23.2 innings pitched). In fact, the two youngsters over the past two years form an “X” on this ERA graph:

Two pitchers, so similar in stuff, have been contrasts the past two years. Let’s take a closer, graphical look at some of their components to see if we can spot the key differences between them last year and this year.

Both pitchers are premier strikeout pitchers, though Liriano is particularly impressive. He leads the major leagues in strikeouts per nine innings and Hernandez is 14th.

Both pitchers also have great control — Liriano has particularly improved his control this year, a key to his great start…

In general, pitchers have the most control over strikeouts and walks — after that, things start to break down a bit. For instance, a big difference between these two young studs in 2006 is the last of the “three true outcomes,” the home run. Hernandez and Liriano have have formed another “X” on either side of the major league average, which partially accounts for Liriano’s improvement and Hernandez’s decline.

Once a ball is hit in play, a pitcher is dependent on his fielders for help. Liriano’s fielding support has remained around the major-league average, but Hernandez’s hasn’t, as you can see in this graph of each pitcher’s Batting Average on Balls in Play.

But the most dramatic difference between the two phenoms the past two years has taken place on the basepaths. Take a look at the percentage of baserunners each pitcher has left on base this year and last:

Felix’s LOB% has gone down, and Liriano’s has gone WAY up. Now, this change isn’t entirely random; pitchers with a 1.99 ERA will almost always have an impressive LOB%. But it’s one more part of the equation for each pitcher, which might be summarized as follows:

Hernandez in 2006: more home runs, more hits falling in, more baserunners scoring.

Liriano in 2006: improved control, fewer home runs, fewer baserunners scoring.

These trends mean next to nothing regarding each one’s long-term promise. In fact, the most meaningful difference between the two is one I haven’t graphed, age. Hernandez is two-and-a-half years younger than Liriano, which makes his potential long-term career a bit brighter.

Here are a couple of bonus graphs, the batted ball types for both pitchers. First up is Hernandez’s, and you can see that he hasn’t been as strong a groundball pitcher as he was last year (Note: the green line is the percent of batted balls that are groundballs, the blue line represents the flyball percentage and the red line represents the percentage that are line drives):

Finally, here is Liriano’s graph. The key is that he is getting batters to pound the ball into the turf as often as Hernandez. In fact, the two kids rank fourth and fifth in highest groundball percentage among all league pitchers — an extremely impressive stat.

Remember that combination: groundball pitchers with 95-100 mph fastballs and great control. You can’t beat it.

Tonight, Adam Dunn became the 23rd player in Major League history to hit a grand slam in the bottom of the 9th to win the game by one run. This feat has been dubbed an “Ultimate Grand Slam” and is only slightly more common than say, throwing a perfect game. The last player to hit one of these grand slams was Jason Giambi over 4 years ago on May 17th, 2002.

In terms of Win Probability, the Reds pretty much defied all odds to pull out a win for the ages. Dunn’s grand slam was worth about 90 points of Win Probability Added (WPA) giving his former season total of 30% a nice boost.

Mark Teixeira hasn’t had a good first half. He’s batting .282 with an OBP of .366, figures that are very much in line with his performance the last three years. But he’s only hit eight home runs, compared to 38 and 43 the last two years. As a result, his power numbers are down. On the left graph, you can see the key stat for Teixeira, his Isolated Power. Last year, his Slugging Percentage was fifth-best in the league. This year, his power has been just average.

So, what happened? Well, the first thing to note is that Teixeira’s underlying profile hasn’t changed much at all. For instance, both his walk and strikeout rates are in line with career stats — if anything, he’s improved in these two areas.

When a player’s home run count drops suddenly, you might assume that his flyball rate has dropped, too. After all, pitchers’ home run rates are often a simple result of their flyball rates. However, batters don’t typically change their batted ball profiles very much, and Teixeira hasn’t really changed his this year either, as you can see in this graph:

Teixeira did hit a lot more flyballs in the beginning of the year, but his groundball rate has risen (not a good trend) and his average flyball, groundball and line drives rates are now in line with his previous years. So, what gives indeed?

The simple answer appears to be that he’s not hitting the ball as hard as he used to. Over the last three years, 20% of his outfield flyballs were home runs. This year, he’s at 7%. The good news is that his out rate on outfield flies is holding steady around 77%, which means that last year’s home runs are falling for singles and doubles this year. In fact, he’s tied for second in the AL with 26 doubles; his career high is 41.

Mark Teixeira is the same hitter he’s always been, just less powerful. Perhaps his timing is off, or perhaps pitchers know something about him. Perhaps he’s in a protracted power slump and he’ll turn it around the second half of the year. Perhaps he has a nagging injury. In this age of unsubstantiated rumors, I don’t want to make any other guesses. Let’s just watch and see what happens.

With Albert Pujols on the sidelines, the best player in baseball right now is Carlos Beltran. Beltran is fourth in the league in Runs Created, behind Pujols and two Designated Hitters (Thome and Hafner). Add his excellent glove in center field, and you’ve got the best player currently playing.

Things didn’t go so well for the multimillionaire last year. He batted .266/.330/.414 for the entire year, compared to.300/.408/.643 so far this year. Plus, he’s already stolen 17 bases in 19 attempts, vs. 17 of 23 last year. Improved health has got to be a factor for the Mets’ center fielder, as well as adjusting to New York. Let’s see if we can spot any other details in his peformance graphs.

First of all, Beltran is striking out at a noticeably higher pace this year, higher than at any time in his career.

Strikeouts aren’t necessarily a bad thing, however, if they’re offset by higher walk rates and performance, and Beltran is doing quite well in both categories. His walk rate has spiked this year, and the following graph illustrates that 2005 appears to have been an aberration against a longer trend of increasing walk rates.

Most importantly, Beltran’s batted ball profile has changed dramatically this year. Last year, he hit more groundballs than flyballs, a pattern he had established in three of the previous four years. This year, however, he’s following the same pattern he had in 2004, batting most pitches far into the sky and forsaking groundballs and line drives. On the following graph, flyballs are blue, groundballs are green and line drives are red. I think the changing pattern is pretty clear, don’t you?

The bottom line is a marked increase in Beltran’s Slugging Percentage. In fact, if he were to maintain his pace for the entire year (an unlikely event), it would establish a career high.

Carlos Beltran has become a different type of hitter this year: a swing-for-the fences power hitter with great plate discipline and speed. This is probably a permanent change in style for the 29-year-old — many players have undergone similar changes at this age. If he avoids injury for the next few years, Met fans will not regret that big contract after all.

It’s the latest baseball scandal — Jason Grimsley took steroids, he took greenies, he took Human Growth Hormone. Once diligent steroid testing began (and after he tested positive for steroids in 2003), he quit the ‘roids. But he kept taking HGH, and he’s not the only one. Now that he’s been caught, he’s naming names.

I know it sounds terrible, but I take some pleasure in this latest news. Hasn’t it been obvious that lots of players beside Barry Bonds have taken illegal drugs for years to enhance their performance? Can’t we now spread our ire to the many instead of the few?

This is obviously just the beginning of the next black mark for baseball. In the meantime, I’ve been wondering if we could pick out when, exactly, Grimsley started using the stuff. According to the affidavit, he first took steroids in 2000 to help him recover from Tommy John surgery, but he may have been taking them sooner. Can we pinpoint a date? Did the drugs have an impact? Let’s see. First, here’s a graph of Grimsley’s ERA for every year of his career…

Whoa. Tom Verducci claims that Jason Grimsley was a different pitcher in 1999 and it sure looks like something happened between 1996 and 1999, doesn’t it? Of course, maybe he just got better, or maybe he performed better in relief (he was primarily a starter before 1999 and a reliever afterwards) Let’s take a closer look at some of his component stats. First, strikeouts per nine innings…

If steroids impact strikeout rates, it doesn’t appear that Grimsley’s medical routine had an impact until 2001 and 2002. And even then the evidence is sketchy. How about walks per nine innings?

This is surprising. It appears that Grimsley’s drug routine may have helped him locate the ball better. I’m sure the truth isn’t that simple, but this kind of finding is perplexing. How about home run rates, you ask?

Some evidence, but nothing too compelling here. Steroids and HGH might have helped Grimsley keep the ball in the park but, as a groundball pitcher, he didn’t give up a lot to begin with. For one last clue, let’s take a look at his Batting Average on Balls in Play (or BABIP):

This is, perhaps, most telling. Grimsley’s batted balls were fielded more often, for whatever reason, after 1998. As a groundball pitcher, Grimsley’s BABIP would tend to be above the average, but pehaps he gained an extra measure of movement or speed on his sinker, making his balls more fieldable and giving him more confidence to throw strikes.

This is all speculation, of course. Drugs may have had no impact on Grimsley’s performance at all. Perhaps he was just better suited to a relief role. If drugs did make an impact, it seems that he started taking them before 2000.

Uncovering the impact of performance-enhancing drugs for any single player is not going to be easy.

In his second consecutive complete game, C.C. Sabathia shutout the twins while striking out 8 and allowing only 6 hits. He’s been brilliant since returning from the D.L. and has allowed only 7 runs in 40 plus innings of work, giving him a 0.92 ERA in his past 5 starts.

The 26 year old is proving that his stellar end to the 2005 season was no fluke and has picked up exactly where he left off last season. His strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) has been in “elite” territory for the past two-plus months he’s been healthy. Even the most devout C.C. skeptic will have trouble debunking his recent success.

My whipping boy in the off season went 3-3 with a home run, 2 stolen bases, and 2 walks last night to raise his batting average to just over .300 for the season. Corey Patterson must have made some significant changes to go from hitting a horrible .215 to a good .306 in just one season, right?

Well, the main thing Patterson has done is actually make contact with the ball. Last season he struck out in 26% of his at-bats and this season he’s only striking out 17% of the time. However, it’s not all good news since he still can’t (or won’t) decipher when pitches are in the strike zone. He chases “bad pitches” over 30% of the time making him one of the 10 most aggresive swingers in baseball. While he has made real improvement and can probably be elevated from “whipping boy” status, I just don’t buy him as a .300 hitter.

Brad Penny and Hee Seop Choi for Guillermo Mota, Paul LoDuca, and Juan Encarnacion. That trade made two years ago was most likely Paul DePodesta’s defining transaction as GM of the Dodgers. Nobody seemed to like it, arguing LoDuca’s leadership couldn’t be replaced and Mota was the glue holding the bullpen together (Eric Gagne, anyone?) Those in favor of the trade saw a top-notch starter in Penny and a young power-hitter with patience and potential.

The short story is that Penny immediately injured himself and missed the rest of the season, while the Dodgers still managed to win the division. The long story is that Choi never performed up to expectations, Mota’s been a disappointment for the Marlins and Indians, and LoDuca’s still a nice catcher, but his legend status has disappeared. Penny, after an above-average 2005 season where he managed to toss 175 innings amidst injuries, has turned into an early Cy Young candidate in 2006. Paul DePodesta is long gone, but is this the year that his 2004 trade is finally recognized as a plus move for the Dodgers?

Penny’s ERA currently sits at 2.53 in 53.1 innings pitched. That’s an ERA 1.4 runs below his career rate and currently ranks him fourth in the National League. He’s never posted a full-season ERA below 3.00 before, but came close in 2004.

So, let’s see what Penny‘s doing better this season that explains the ERA drop. He’s been consistently average with his strikeout rate over his career and 2006 is no different. Control-wise, he’s walking half a batter more per game this year than last, but the 2.7 BB/9 is in line with his career rate and better than average.

On the other hand, Penny‘s homerun rate has been amazing so far in 2006 — he’s only given up 2 homeruns in 53.1 innings. Keeping the ball in the park has been a strength throughout his career, but he’s actually allowing more fly balls this season than in the past, in addition to fewer groundballs and more line drives. A shift like that in batted ball profile would tend to imply an increase in homeruns, but Penny’s only allowing 3% of fly balls to leave the yard, compared to a career norm of about 9%. Expect that number to rise, and Penny’s ERA along with it.

A second indicator of a potential rise in ERA is Penny‘s left-on-base rate in 2006. Over his career, 72% of base-runners were left on base, whereas that number is up to 81% this season. That number will likely regress as the season goes on and with it more runners will score.

Penny‘s Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) sits at 3.31, significantly higher than his actual ERA. FIP accounts for the high LOB%, but unless Penny continues to be historically stingy with the homeruns, expect his ERA the rest of the season to be at least 3.75. If he can stay healthy enough to pitch 200 innings, however, his 2006 season will still garner a lot of attention, especially if the Dodgers continue to rebound from 2005 and challenge for the division lead.

Last night Jake Peavy struck out 16 batters in the Padres 3-1 loss to the Braves. The last time anyone struck out 16 or more was way back in September of 2004 when Mark Prior mowed down 16 Reds. This also marked a career high for Peavy and was the 12th ten-plus strikeout performance of his career.

Yawn… another start, another good performance for the soon to be 25 year old. He’s struck out 35 batters in his last 19 innings while issuing just 4 walks. His strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9) have now returned to just about where they were last season. Yeah, he’s pretty good.

With an 8 run lead in the 9th, Keith Foulke was brought in for mop-up duty and allowed back-to-back home runs to Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada. He ended up with 4 earned runs on the night raising his ERA from 3.47 to 4.81.

Despite the poor, meaningless outing, Foulke appears to have mostly returned to his 2004-self after battling a knee injury all of last season. He’s striking out about 7 batters per 9 innings and walking just over 1 per 9 innings, giving him a career high strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB). Too bad it’s going to take about 10 scoreless innings for his ERA to return to where it was.

Who would have thought that nearly two months into the season Mike Maroth would have the 5th best ERA in baseball with a 5-2 record to boot? To get right to the point, there’s only one graph you have to look at with Maroth: his left-on-base percentage (LOB%) graph.

Every stat this year except for his ERA and LOB% has shown either no significant change or have been worse than last season. In other words, he’s not really pitching any better than last year, but has been the benefactor of, dare I say, luck? Barring any significant change in his strikeout or walk habits, expect his LOB% to drift back to earth causing his ERA to be more in-line with his career average (4.68).

Last night’s 3-5 performance bumped Ichiro Suzuki‘s batting average up to .314 for the season and marks the 15th game on his current hitting streak.

Over the past month or so, he’s seen a drastic rise in the number of groundballs (green) he’s hit, bringing him back to his typical batted-ball profile. Furthermore, he’s been beating out these same grounders for singles over 20% of the time, the highest at any point in his career. With his groundball percentage nearing a career high, it’s doubtful he’ll reach last year’s 15 home run mark, but I don’t see anyone complaining. Looks like this could be one of his “better” years in the average department.

After going homer-less in his previous 41 plate appearances, Aramis Ramirez hit home runs in his first two at-bats in the Cubs 7-4 victory of the White Sox. The two dingers resulted in a 26.6 Win Probability Added (WPA); his largest contribution on the season.

While struggling through back injuries he batted a horrible .197 in April, but is hitting a much better (though mediocre) .263 this month. Last season he had a scorching June compiling 35 hits for a .363 average including 7 home runs. Oddly enough, it appears he’s seeing the ball better than ever as shown by the dramatic increase in his walk-to-strikeout ratio (BB/K). Assuming his back troubles are over, it looks like he’s primed for a serious hot streak.

Scott Kazmir shut out the Marlins for 8 innings while striking out 11 batters and walking just one. Today’s win was his 7th; tying him for the league lead.

Is there any pitcher hotter than Kazmir right now? Over his past 5 starts he has a 0.77 ERA with 37 strikeouts and just 4 walks. He’s always been able to strike batters out, but he’s managed to cut his walks per 9 innings (BB/9) almost in half this year. With his wildness under control, starts like this are going to become old hat.

I have a soft spot for players like Corey Koskie — guys that are above-average players, but don’t get the recognition they deserve because they don’t do even one thing at All-Star level. Koskie’s highest finish on a league top 10 list was sixth in sacrifice flies in 2003 and he finished 25th in the league in MVP voting in 2001. His lack of a significant weakness has resulted in consistently above-average production. He’s been above average in runs created per game (RC/G) every season since his 11 at-bats in 1998.

While Koskie‘s overall performance has been consistent, the profile of his play has taken on a few different personalities. He cranked 25 homeruns in 2001 and 2004, he walked in 14% of his plate appearances in 2000 and 2003, and he’s hit anywhere from .250 to .310. Combine the best individual numbers from across all his seasons and he’s an All-Star, albeit a poor one.

Let’s take a look at what Koskie did in 2001; his best season. He hit 26 homeruns and broke the century mark in both runs and RBI, coming to the plate 649 times, 75 more than in any other year. The power can be explained by his profile as a fly ball hitter in 2001, which was similar to his 2004 season where he hit 25 home runs. In both those seasons his batting average was below his career norms. Fly balls are turned into outs more often than groundballs, and Koskie’s fly balls (blue) also came with a price of fewer line drives (red), which explains the lower average.

Koskie‘s worst season (2005) saw his fly ball rate fall by 10%, causing his home run total to decrease to 11. He’s had other successful seasons without much power, but in those seasons he saw both a higher line-drive percentage and walk rate. In 2005 he hit a lot of groundballs and both his power and average dipped because of it.

So what kind of player has Koskie been so far in 2006? His on-base percentage (OBP) lies at a career norm of .365, but he’s slugging a career-best .515 thanks to a .286 average and 14 doubles. Looking underneath those numbers though, his 2006 looks a lot like 2005. His batted ball profile is unfortunately very similar to last year, yet his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is up to .341; the highest it’s been since 2003. One of those two figures will change as the season goes on, likely the latter. Most disappointingly, his walk rate (BB%) is at a career low 9%.

An up and coming team like the Brewers should be concentrating on letting their young guys develop, but they also need to fill a few positions with veterans. Acquiring an underrated third baseman like Koskie at a salary below value is a great move. Most teams in Milwaukee’s situation tend to overspend on players such as Tony Batista and Carl Everett. But while Koskie seems to have bumped up his performance from last year, his profile hasn’t changed much except for a decrease in walks.

I expect his walk-rate to become more in line with his career performance, but the batting average and doubles power will likely come down from their current levels. I’ll still be rooting for Koskie, but it seems like his days as an above-average player may be over.

By now everyone’s heard that Francisco Liriano has joined Minnesota‘s rotation and will start Friday in place of Carlos Silva. Liriano has one of the highest ceilings of any pitching prospect and has shown that so far in 2006 he’s ready to live up to the hype. While Silva has been disastrous this year, the same can also be said for two other Twins’ pitchers: Brad Radke and Kyle Lohse. Which of these three starters really deserves to be banished from the rotation?

Radke is the only one of the three whose ERA fits on the graph below, and it’s still over 7.00. Over the past few years Silva has the best track-record, with Radke about league-average and Lohse slightly worse than that. Based on past ERA and age, Silva looks like the best bet to lower his ERA.

If we dig deeper, however, that’s not really the case. Silva has been walking a fine line for the past few years, striking out an amazingly low 3.4 hitters per 9 innings in both 2004 and 2005. In fact, all three pitchers struggle to accumulate free outs, and except for Lohse’s 2006 data point, all three are riding downward trends.

The other thing a pitcher has direct control over other than strikeouts is walks. Silva‘s success in 2005 can be attributed to a historically low .43 BB/9; he walked only 9 batters in 188 innings! Radke is also considered a control specialist, and Lohse is above average as well. Is it any surprise that all three pitchers have seen an increase in their walk-rates this season?

You’ve seen the bad. Here comes the ugly. None of these three pitchers allowed homeruns at a better than average rate in 2005, but they might as well let opposing batters hit off a tee this year. Lohse is the only one of the three whose data point appears on the graph. He’s giving up about 1.5 HR/9 which still falls into the poor category. Radke is allowing 2.3 HR/9, and Silva deserves a trophy for his 2.9 HR/9 rate — that’s 15 homeruns in 46 innings.

Homeruns are a function of allowing fly balls, so there might be hope for any of these pitchers if their batted-ball profiles are in line with previous seasons. In other words, perhaps hitters are just getting lucky this year. That might be true for Radke, as his fly ball rate is actually lower than at any point over the past five years. Lohse is allowing more fly balls than last year, but it’s not out of line with his previous three seasons. Silva, on the other hand, has suddenly become a fly ball pitcher, not a good idea for somebody who encourages hitters to get wood on the ball.

One last important aspect of pitching performance is actually a measure of the fielders behind the pitcher — allowing hits on balls in play. Considering that all three of our subjects allow a lot of balls in play, good fielding is critical for success. In 2006, the Twins have been the worst fielding team in the majors. Sure, they haven’t committed many errors, but that’s because, other than Torii Hunter, they don’t have the range to get to many balls.

Defensive Efficiency Ratio (DER) is the percentage of balls in play that get turned into outs. The Twins DER this season is .651 against a league average of about .700. The Tigers have the highest DER at .737. From a batter’s perspective, that’s the difference between hitting .267 and .349.

Compared to the rest of their careers, Carlos Silva, Brad Radke, and Kyle Lohse are all allowing more walks and more homeruns, they’re striking out fewer batters, and the Twins defense is letting a huge percentage of balls in play go for hits. It’s the perfect storm of pitching. I agree with the assessment that Silva needs a break from the rotation and while he probably won’t help the bullpen one bit, he needs to figure out how to ease his K/BB back towards his career level and reduce his fly ball rate.

Lohse may actually be the best of the three options right now, and could bring his ERA below 5.00 if he lowers his walk-rate. Radke’s ERA should fall as well, especially if his current homerun rate really is a fluke. But let’s not kid ourselves, the most positive news from this whole discussion is the fact that Francisco Liriano is now in the rotation. How long will it be before we see Boof Bonser (2.01 ERA in 49.1 IP) called up?

SportsIllustrated.com is currently running a feature on the great Albert Pujols. I was lucky enough to have my PitchZone charts included. You can find the article and all the PitchZone goodness here:

Hot Spots, Cold Spots: Where do the best sluggers do the most damage?

With all the injuries suffered by the Los Angeles Dodgers, it’s been the starting trio of Brad Penny, Brett Tomko, and Derek Lowe that’s kept their record at .500. Lowe’s had an interesting career — he led his league in saves in 2000, won 21 games in 2002 with the Red Sox and also managed to throw the first Fenway park no-hitter in 37 years. Last season, his first year in Los Angeles was deemed successful (3.61 ERA) and in 2006 he’s seen his ERA drop to under 3.00. Can Derek Lowe sustain his current level of success the rest of the season?

Right away, let’s dispel the myth that Lowe’s ERA is a good measure of his value. As David Gassko pointed out, groundball pitchers tend to have a higher percentage of their runs allowed credited as unearned because more errors are made on grounders than fly balls. Lowe just happens to lead the majors in groundball percentage and last year his 24 unearned runs were also the most in the majors. This year he’s allowed 5 unearned runs, with only a handful of pitchers ahead of him.

What has me worried about Lowe is that his strikeout and walk rates are returning to where they were during his last two years in Boston. In his years as a reliever, he struck out about 8 batters per 9 innings (K/9), but as a starter, he’s never had a K/9 much above 5 except for last year when it was just below 6. This year, it’s dipped to 4.5; a career low.

Looking at 2002, Lowe‘s best year as a starter, the key to his success (in addition to Rey Sanchez‘s glove) was a low walk-rate of 1.97 per 9 innings (BB/9). When his ERA ballooned into the 5.00′s, his BB/9 also rose to around 3.5. He’s not quite at that level this year, but a walk rate of 2.6 is just too high considering he doesn’t strike anybody out. The last time he had a walk-to-strikeout ratio (K/BB) this low were his final two disastrous seasons in Boston.

On the positive side, all those groundballs Lowe induces definitely help him keep the ball in the park. Last year’s rate of 1.14 home runs per 9 innings (HR/9) was way out of line with the rest of his career. A return to about .7 HR/9 this season is impressive and quite reasonable.

One of the stranger quirks in Lowe‘s career in Boston was his love of Fenway, a hitter’s park. His ERA at home was always significantly lower than on the road. When he moved to Los Angeles and the pitcher friendly Dodger Stadium, that trend actually reversed itself. For some reason, his ERA last year was slightly worse at home, and the difference has been magnified in 2006. Perhaps the spacious outfield yields more room for line-drives to fall while not helping much with keeping his few fly balls from doing damage.

Realizing that Lowe was actually a sub-par pitcher in 2005 certainly changes our expectations for 2006. Cutting down on the homeruns should counter his lowered walk-to-strikeout ratio, but it won’t turn him into an All-Star. He may be able to sustain an ERA between 3.50 and 4.00 with his insanely high groundball percentage, but considering the additional unearned runs he’ll allow and the added benefit from pitching in Dodger Stadium (it’s certainly not hurting his value), that’s nothing to write home about.