As of now, the 2008 Bill James Handbook projections are available on the player pages.

On a side note, all the minor league players have been synced with the major league players, so there will no longer be duplicate entries for minor league players that were called up last season.

After last night’s Red Sox game 7 victory, I was rather curious to see who would win the ALCS Most Valuable Player award. Without looking at the numbers, I thought it should go to Kevin Youkilis. I thought there was a chance it would go to Manny Ramirez and also a chance it could go to Josh Beckett. When Beckett was announced the winner, I was a little surprised and went to check the numbers.

It turns out that Josh Beckett did lead all players in Win Probability Add (WPA) in the ALCS. In two starts his WPA was .516 wins compared to Youkilis’ .203 wins. Manny Ramirez‘s WPA was just slightly below Beckett’s at .483 wins. Jon Papelbon and Hideki Okajima also were also contenders for the WPA title with .467 and .286 wins respectively.

If you look at things just in terms of run production taking the context out of the situation. Youkilis was indeed the most productive player with a Batting Runs Above Average (BRAA) of 9.3 runs. Ramirez came in second with 6.2 runs, while Beckett was the next best with 4.7 runs.

In today’s New York Times, Dan Rosenheck uses some of the tools available on FanGraphs to delve into the Arizona Diamondbacks dubious Pythagorean record.

While I’m at it, I figure I’ll mention a few things that are going on at FanGraphs.

- Live Win Probability will continue through the post season. I’m sure there will be a few improbable comebacks, which will certainly be fun to follow.

- I will be traveling to Japan next week and will be attending a Yomiuri Giants game and Seibu Lions game. I’ll be sure to write about my impressions of the games along with posting various baseball related photos from my trip.

Just thought I’d throw this in the blog for archival purposes:

I was browsing through the Win Probability leaderboards and noticed that Troy Tulowitzki is in the top 10 in Win Probability Added for the season with 2.32 wins. A quick glance in the Batting Runs Above Average column shows he’s the only player in the top 50 who is below average with -1.75 runs. His Clutch hitting has netted him an additional 2.08 wins over what he should have, considering how well he’s hit. So far this season, Tulowitzki has been the most clutch hitter in baseball.

His latest and greatest hit of the season came just two days ago on June 25th when he hit a three-run-homer against Bob Howry to give the Rockies a 9-8 lead against the Cubs. Unfortunately, Rockies closer, Brian Fuentes, couldn’t nail down the save, making his big hit for naught.

As of today, the Red Sox have the best record in baseball. If you look at their Win Probability numbers, their batting has contributed 4.38 wins, their starting pitchers 1.54 wins and their bullpen 4.08 wins. The bullpen which was considered a big question mark to begin the season has surprisingly been just as valuable as their offense, much in thanks to Boston’s lesser known Japanese import, Hideki Okajima.

For the past two seasons, David Ortiz has racked up more WPA than any other player in baseball by adding an incredible 17 wins to his team. About one-third of the way into this current season, Ortiz has accumulated a mere 1 win, but still leads all Red Sox batters in WPA.

Last season, David Ortiz had 15 hits worth more than .2 wins, not to mention a pair of home runs worth .78 wins and .90 wins. This season he has no hits over the .2 wins mark. That’s not to say he’s not having an excellent season. When you take the context out of his wins using WPA/LI he’s 3rd in baseball with 1.93 wins, but the hits just haven’t been as timely as last season. The huge disparity between his WPA and WPA/LI gives him the 5th worst “Clutch” with -.88 wins.

So who has been getting the big hits for the Red Sox if their previously “clutch” star hasn’t? Let’s take a look:

On May 13th, newcomer Julio Lugo was the catalyst for the biggest play of the season. With 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th, down by 1 and the bases loaded, Lugo singled in the tying run while Erik Hinske scored on an error. The whole thing was worth .718 wins and capped off an incredible 9th inning rally (including a Jason Varitek double worth .343 wins) that overcame a 5 run deficit. At the start of the inning the Sox had a mere .9% chance of winning the game.

In a classic Yankees-Red Sox battle on April 20th, Coco Crisp tripled in two runs to tie the game at 6-6 off Yankees closer Mariano Rivera. This triple was worth .472 wins. Immediately following Crisp’s triple, Alex Cora singled allowing Crisp to score the go ahead and final run of the game. In contrast Cora’s hit was worth .123 wins.

On April 26th, Orioles closer Chris Ray (who also gave up the hit to Lugo on May 13th) gave up a grand slam to Wily Mo Pena which put the Sox up by 3 to win the game. Down by 1 at the time, the home run was worth .43 wins.

Alex Cora on April 19th, in the top of the 9th with 1 out, tripled, allowing Julio Lugo to score the go-ahead run. While not quite as big as Crisp’s triple on the 20th, this one was still worth .373 wins.

Erik Hinske’s two run blast in the 7th inning of a tie game back on May 17th rounds out the top 5 most important Red Sox hits so far this season. Manny Ramirez owns the next two biggest which were both worth juts over .3 wins.

David Ortiz is no where to be seen on this list with his biggest hit worth .197 which came on April 25th in the 7th inning of a tie game. In the 9th inning or later in a game, Ortiz is actually a -.213 wins while in 2006 he was 2.34 wins; far and away the most in baseball.

I’m sure as the season goes on, things will start to even out and there will be some big hits here and there, but fortunately for the Red Sox, they haven’t exactly needed Ortiz to be the savior he’s been the past two seasons.

With the exception of last week, it seems that there are more or less the same players in the top 10 week after week. In an attempt to make things more interesting, let’s look at the top 11-20. But first, let’s pay homage to the actual top 10.

Alex Rodriguez, Barry Bonds, Albert Pujols, John Maine, Ichiro Suzuki, Derek Jeter, Josh Beckett, Jose Reyes, David Ortiz, David Bush. These guys round out the top 10. I have not been visiting Bush’s page a whole lot this week either. And I’ll continue to assert that he will turn things around. Onto the top 11-20.

11. Manny Ramirez – A previous fixture in the top 10, he’s fallen all the way down to number 11. Manny has really started to turn things around and is batting just about .350 in the month of May. He’s also wracked up a solid .42 WPA for the American League’s most winning team.

12. David Wright – He’s another player who started off a bit slow. He’s batting just under .300 for May and more importantly is starting to hit with some pop. He also stole 3 bases in last night’s game; a feat which has only been accomplished about 100 times in the past 5 years.

13. B.J. Upton – While he continues to challenge Ryan Howard for the major league lead in strikeout percentage, the main difference between the two is that B.J. Upton has pummeled major league pitching. He’s been a bit less stellar in May, but no one’s going to complain about a .916 OPS.

14. Daisuke Matsuzaka – Yawn. Dice-K is 4th in the AL in K/9; striking out just over a batter an inning. FIP suggests his ERA should be in the mid-3′s as opposed to the high-4′s. Giving up 10 runs to the Yankees has been his only problem.

15. Kelly Johnson – Though his batting average graph looks like a camel’s back, he still leads all second-basemen in OBP (.409). Unfortunately, he hasn’t been walking much this month either and the graph looks eerily similar to his batting average.

16. James Shields – He only threw 9 innings of 3 hit ball the other day. Despite his obscenely high WPA of .766 in that game alone, his team still didn’t get him a win. He’s good.

17. Jonathan Papelbon – The Red Sox closer currently has a 1.35 ERA. Last year he’d only given up 1 run at this point in the season. This year, he’s already given up 2. For shame.

18. Roger Clemens – He’s back with the Yankees, but you probably knew that already.

19. Chien-Ming Wang – His ERA now sits at 5.40 after a disastrous outing against the Rangers. If it weren’t for his 2 hit gem against the Mariners, his ERA would be over 7. He was a hot topic for debate this off-season and so far things are not looking good for Wang.

20. Dustin Pedroia – Alex Cora really tore things up while Pedroia was riding pine. The big difference between him and Cora is that Pedroia can actually take a walk. Despite his troubles, Pedroia should continue to be out there everyday.

You may have noticed there’s a new tab in the player pages called “Play Log”. This will give you every single play for the selected player in any given year. It’s currently sorted by WPA so you can easily tell which plays were the most/least important.

It’s a little slow for my tastes and I’ll see what I can do to speed it up. Sorting is currently disabled because it was extremely slow. If you desperately want to do sorting, you can add “&sort=wpa” query string to the end of the url. The options for the querystring are “li”, “braa”, “wpa”, and “day”. Update: Sorting is now enabled, but you can no longer click on the play to find out the pitch sequence. I’ll get that fixed soon enough.

This is still pretty bare-bones right now, but I’m sure as the season goes on there will be substantial improvements.

In today’s Hardball Times, Matthew Carruth did an analysis on extreme groundball pitchers and how they do not really give up more home runs-per-fly ball (HR/FB) than your typical pitcher. There has been some thought that extreme groundball pitchers do tend to give up more HR/FB because they’re only allowing fly balls when they throw a bad pitch, thus making it easier to hit the ball out of the park. Carruth’s analysis even suggests that the opposite might be true, though the correlation was quite weak.

I decided to run a similar analysis using data from 2002 to the present. The average HR/FB rate during that same period is 10.7%. If we look at the 2002-present totals of all pitchers with a groundball percentage (GB%) greater than 55% and more than 100 innings pitched, they have an average HR/FB of 12.2%. That 12.2% is not a weighted average, it’s just a simple average of each qualified pitcher’s HR/FB.

Using the same method, if you look at pitchers with a GB% less than 35%, they have an average HR/FB of 9.9%.

Now I’ll admit this is a much simpler approach than the route Carruth took, but the results seem to be considerably different and I wondered why this would be the case.

First off, if you use my approach with the 20 pitchers Carruth selected in each group, you come to the same conclusions as Carruth did. This leads me to believe the batted ball data from Retrosheet (which Carruth used) and the batted ball data from Baseball Info Solutions don’t quite match up.

Just taking a quick look at the top 10 players, their GB% don’t match. For exampe, Retrosheet has Brandon Webb with a GB% of over 70% and BIS has him at 65%. That’s the first difference.

The second difference is that the time period he used was between 1988 and 2006 where the HR/FB according to Retrosheet was 13.57%. This is considerably different than the HR/FB of 10.7% that Baseball Info Solutions reports between the 2002-present time period. Using the 13.57% for all pitchers over a 18 year period where there’s been some considerable influx in home run totals is probably going to cause some issues as well.

To me it seems there is at least some evidence that extreme groundball pitchers as a group do give up more HR/FB than your typical pitcher. The two most extreme groundball pitchers in the past 5 years have an average HR/FB of 15.5% (Brandon Webb) and 13.1% (Derek Lowe).

The other option is it really has nothing to do with GB% at all (sampling size issue maybe?) and it’s just that some extreme groundball pitchers tend to have higher HR/FB. In their case instead of regressing to the league average, you’d just regress to the player’s actual average; treating it more like you’d treat a batter’s batting average on balls in play (BABIP) than you would a pitcher’s BABIP.

The other day I attended an Orioles game and just like every other baseball game I’ve been to in my entire life, I didn’t catch a foul ball. I didn’t catch a home run ball either, but that would have been impossible where I was sitting.

While I was watching a few lucky fans snag souvenirs, I wondered what my chances of catching a foul ball actually were. Doing some quick back of the envelope calculations, I figured there were maybe 30 balls a game hit into the stands, and maybe around 30,000 fans at each game. If that were the case, about 1 in every 1000 fans would walk away with a foul ball/home run.

In reality, there were 120,946 foul balls and home runs during the 2005 season and 74,915,268 fans in attendance that same year, which ends up being about 1 in every 619 fans end up with a ball. This is probably better than the actual odds since not all foul balls are hit into the stands.

If we were to say half of all foul balls were hit onto the field and the other half hit into the stands then the odds jump to 1 in 1189.

Finally, there are some places in a stadium where you couldn’t possibly catch a foul ball, and other places where you’d likely increase your chances, making that 1 in 1189 is hardly 100% accurate, but good enough for a rough estimate.

Odds are, the only way I’ll be getting a baseball at a game, is at the souvenir stand.

I haven’t been blogging much in the past couple weeks, but I’m hoping to turn over a new leaf with this past week’s FanGraphs top 10. There are more than a few surprises:

1. John Maine – The momentary Major League ERA leader (1.35) is also this week’s #1 player on FanGraphs. He’s been getting a lot of hype and some skepticism lately. I think everyone can agree he’s not as good as his 1.35 ERA, but I think there’s still a lot to like.

2. Barry Bonds – He hit 2 home runs this week and is now just 12 shy of breaking Hank Aaron‘s record. He’s playing like the past 2 years didn’t happen.

3. Alex Rodriguez – Since hitting 2 home runs on April 23rd, A-Rod has now gone 41 at-bats without a single home run. I wonder if for every record breaking streak, there’s an equal (and opposite) record breaking slump?

4. David Wright – The other New York third-baseman has been in a season long slump. He’s both walking and striking out more, while his Isolated Power (ISO) has been cut in half. What’s the statistical culprit? A failure to get the ball off the ground.

5. Derek Jeter – The other and still “true” Yankee always seems to make the top 10. He’s having a pretty nice season which isn’t all that different from his MVP seas… oh wait… nevermind.

6. B.J. Upton – The rookie is having a phenomenal year and apparently everyone wants to see what all the hoopla’s about. Upon further inspection, he’s striking out only 38% of the time which puts him right there in Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn territory (sans the high walk rate). My magic 8 ball tells me this about his hot start: “Outlook Not So Good”. That’s how I do all my analysis, by the way.

7. David Bush – I’m a big David Bush fan and it could just be me visiting his page ever so frequently that pushed him up to #7 of the list. Despite his ERA over 6, he has the 3rd highest K/BB in baseball. Good things should happen soon.

8. Manny Ramirez – As soon as A-Rod started slumping, Manny started to pick things up. Since A-Rod hit his last home runs, Manny has batted just over .300 with 7 walks and 3 home runs, including a 2 home run game on May 3rd.

9. James Shields – This guy is looking really really good and should be on everyone’s radar. Few pitchers in the history of baseball have struck out over a batter an inning while walking under 2 batters per 9 innings. In fact, there have been just 11 starting pitchers to do it in a single season. Bruce Sutter, Tom Seaver, Sandy Koufax, Jason Schmidt, Johan Santana, Ben Sheets, Roy Oswalt, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz, Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson make up the 11.

10. Ichiro Suzuki – He’s off to a slow start, which apparently is concern enough for him to make his first top 10 list. He’s still getting infield hits but his BABIP is considerably below his norm. Fortunately for him, there’s still some 5 months of baseball left to right the ship.

If you haven’t noticed, there are a few new team blogs currently on FanGraphs. Garth Sears (Royals), Erik Manning (Cardinals) and our latest addition Tito Crafts (Red Sox) have been doing a fantastic job looking at games from a Win Probability angle, among other things.

If you have an idea for a baseball related blog, whether it be team specific or something entirely different, and you’re looking for a place to get started, feel free to send me a note. From there we can talk in more detail. You can either fill out a contact form, or e-mail me at david@fangraphs.com.

The 2007 Minor League stats are up and available for viewing in both the stats pages and the Leardboards. They will be updated every morning no later than noon Eastern.

Also, I’ve taken down the projections and spring training stats by default in the stats pages. You can still view them by clicking on “Show Projections” or “Show Spring Training”. I figured now that there was almost a full month of the season underway, the projections weren’t being used as much and they were causing some unneeded clutter. I’m open to putting them back up by default, but as long as I don’t hear complaints, they’ll stay hidden by default.

Bradford Doolittle wrote about WPA today in the Kansas City star and gives FanGraphs’ new Live Win Probability quite the favorable review. You can check that out here: These stats add something to the game

There’s also a Q&A session with me on his blog for those interested in some of the behind the scenes happenings at FanGraphs: Q&A With David Appelman

Last night we rolled in some changes to the way Clutch is calculated. For the most part, the results remained the same, but there are a few key differences which you should be aware of.

Clutch is no longer calculated using OPS Wins. Instead it’s calculated using WPA/LI, which is WPA divided by LI on a play-by-play basis. Take Alex Rodriguez for example who has a WPA of 1.03 and a pLI of 1.51. His WPA divided by pLI on a full season basis would be .68. Unfortunately, that is weighting each play incorrectly and does not correctly neutralize WPA. When you correctly weight each plate appearance by LI, his WPA/LI is 1.16. To get the new Clutch score, you merely do: WPA – WPA/LI.

Tangotiger goes into the details of what’s going on here in comment #5: What Exactly Clutch Measures.

One of the biggest complaints I see about WPA is that it’s not predictive. The mere mention of it’s non-predictability seems to be enough for many to write it off as a mere toy used by some of stats community.

So let’s see how it actually correlates from year to year compared to the stats we all know, like AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS. I’ll throw in Batting Runs Above Average for fun too.

Looking at the r-squared from 2005 to 2006 for batters with over 300 plate appearances, here’s how WPA stacks up against the regulars:

AVG: .12
WPA: .27
BRAA: .35
OBP: .36
OPS: .36
SLG: .38

Here’s the same deal, 2004 to 2005.

AVG: .14
WPA: .24
OBP: .27
OPS: .30
BRAA: .31
SLG: .33

It’s true, WPA doesn’t correlate as well from year to year as OBP, SLG, or OPS, but it does have some correlation from year to year. In 2004, a players OBP was almost indicative of his 2005 OBP as his 2004 WPA was of his 2005 WPA. Yet, that wasn’t quite the case in 2005 to 2006. BRAA which is calculated by using Run Expectancy on a play-by-play basis (much like WPA uses Win Expectancy), holds its own against the regulars.

Anyway, the point is, let’s stop using the argument that WPA isn’t predictive as a crutch, because it does actually show some correlation from year to year.

This week’s top 10 most popular players on FanGraphs is devoid of Corey Hart and because of that it makes a lot more sense. Let’s get right to it:

1. Alex Rodriguez – You’ve not only managed to become number one in Win Probability Added (and nearly every other stat in the first week), you’re also the most popular.

2. Albert Pujols – Slipping from the top spot lats week, Pujols got off to a rough start by going 1-13 to start the season. But yesterday, he went 2-5 with one home run, signaling the end of the bizarro first week of baseball.

3. Derek Jeter – What has Jeter done this season to deserve such a prominent place on the FanGraphs top 10? Besides being Jeter, WPA says he’s the second most valuable Yankee thus far this season. Fitting he should be the second most popular Yankee.

4. Barry Bonds – His one home run this week puts him just 20 home runs shy of tying Hank Aaron‘s all time best 755 home runs. At this rate he’ll have broken the record by September 3rd. Anyone know the vegas odds on that?

5. Felix Hernandez – His 8 inning — 3 hit — 12 strikeout performance gave him a Game Score of 87, which just happens to be the highest Game Score this season. Hopefully the weather will allow him make a second start sometime this season.

6. Todd Helton – He’s off to a decent start, but I’m not sure why he’s in the top 10. It could have something to do with the nosedive his Isolated Power has taken since the 2004 season.

7. Johan Santana – Why wouldn’t the best pitcher in baseball make the list?

8. Adam Dunn – The always intriguing Dunn is off to a hot start after having a scorching spring training. He’s batting an uncharacteristic .381 with 3 home runs so far this season.

9. Brad Lidge – Speaking of spring training, Lidge has been just as awful the first week of the season as he was during spring training. He’s pitched 1.2 innings, giving up 6 runs (3 of them earned) for an ERA just over 16. If he can’t get things together soon, he’ll definitely be out of the closers job, and possibly a job altogether.

10. Ryan Howard – Even though he’s batting just .217 with no home runs, he’s already drawn 7 walks, which ties him for the most in the National League with fellow teammate Jimmy Rollins. He only hit 1 home run in his first 11 games last year, so not much to worry about yet.

11-20: David Ortiz, Cole Hamels, John Maine, B.J. Upton, Jose Reyes, Ian Snell, Grady Sizemore, Roy Oswalt, Erik Bedard, Elijah Dukes.

In yesterday’s 10-7 victory win against the Orioles, Alex Rodriguez‘s game winning grand-slam was the second biggest hit he’s had in the pats 6 years according to Win Probability Added (WPA). It brought his team from a mere 28.8% chance of winning to a complete victory.

In 2006 however, Rodriguez was about as far from being a clutch hitter as you could possibly get. But before we delve into why, let’s get familiar with two stats: REW and OPS Wins. REW is calculated much like WPA, except it uses Run Expectancy (as opposed to Win Expectancy), which doesn’t take the score or inning into account. It does however account for how well a batter does with runners on base. OPS Wins on the other hand is how a player would do in a completely context neutral environment.

Looking at 2006, Rodriguez’s 3.18 OPS Wins and his REW of 3.34 wins are fairly close, but in general he did a little bit better than expected with runners on base. When you take into account the inning and the score (or late and close situations), he accumulated just 1.18 wins. Basically he performed much worse than he should have in high leverage or “clutch” situations. This is measured by a stat called “Clutch” which is the difference between WPA and OPS Wins once leverage adjusted. Rodriguez’s Clutch was -2.16 wins; the third worst among qualified players in 2006.

Last season was the worst season he’s had in the past 5 years in terms of clutch hitting and probably his worst season ever. Yet in his previous two seasons with the Yankees he was actually a clutch hitter with a Clutch of .76 wins in 2004 and .41 wins in 2005.

Since joining the Yankees, he’s still the 9th most valuable player in baseball according to WPA. If we look at just the Yankees batters since 2004, he ranks first in terms of WPA.

Batter                WPA
Alex Rodriguez      11.27
Derek Jeter         10.54
Gary Sheffield       8.91
Jason Giambi         7.61
Hideki Matsui        6.46
Jorge Posada         2.92
Bobby Abreu          1.96
Johnny Damon         1.76
Tony Clark           1.05
Tino Martinez         .77

Whether you like him or not, he has been the most valuable Yankees batter according to WPA the past 3 seasons including the few games played this season. Of course, Mariano Rivera bests him by half-a-win with a WPA of 11.73.

A friend of mine’s — co-worker’s — friend’s — son is Micah Owings. This was a shocking revelation to me. I’m only 4 degrees of separation from THE Micah Owings who made his big-league debut yesterday. More importantly, he picked up the win, throwing 5 innings of 1 hit ball while striking out 6 and walking 3. That’s a pretty good start for the rookie who pitched against the Nationals; possibly the worst team in recent history.

It’s only his first start, but his control was definitely off since he hit 2 batters, and threw 1 wild pitch. The 3 walks weren’t so wonderful either. He hasn’t exactly been a control master in the minors either, walking 34 batters in 88 innings (BB/9 of 3.60) in AAA. It’ll be interesting to see how he pitches next time against Cincinnati.

- The great Albert Pujols has just 1 hit in 13 at-bats this season. He’s still walking a healthy 19% of the time, so there’s still 43 Major League regulars who have a worse OBP than he does at this point in the season. Don’t fret Cardinals fans, Pujols went 1-13 between July 4th and July 7th just last season. After that, he went on an 11 game hitting streak where he went 20-46 with 4 home runs. If anyone in any of my fantasy leagues would like to jump ship on Pujols at this time, please let me know.

- Speaking of Pujols, Miguel Cabrera (or as I call him: Pujols-lite) has been on an absolute tear to start the season. He already has 6.98 Batting Runs Above Average (BRAA) which just happens to be tops in the majors by more than half-a-run. He’s on pace to have 282 BRAA, which I’m sure would easily be the best season ever. At this rate, I’ll have to start calling Pujols, Cabera-lite.

- The other day in Daisuke Matsuzaka major league debut, he struck out 10 in 7 innings of work. He also gave up 6 hits, 1 solo-shot and only walked 1. This is just the obligatory mention, since you can read about this nearly anywhere else.

- Oliver Perez struck out 6 in 7 innings against the Braves. More importantly, he walked zero. This is definitely a guy to keep an extremely close eye on. He was lights out in 2004 so there’s no question that he has the ability to be a dominant pitcher, the only question is can he do it consistently. He’s off to an excellent start following his solid spring. Between Perez and John Maine, there could potentially be much less doom and gloom surrounding the Mets rotation.

- After being banished to the minors last season in favor of Brandon Watson, Ryan Church is showing why he should have always been on the Nationals roster. He’s batting just under .300 with 2 home runs and an OPS of 1.224. He’s always been an intriguing player and should continue to be one of the bright spots in the Nationals offense.

- Finally, in the land of Win Probability, B.J. Ryan blew his first save of the season giving the Devil Rays a fairly improbable comeback for the second time this year. Who had the winning hit? None other than B.J. Upton. The Devil Rays now find themselves in first place.

The Nationals just had a great comeback against the Marlins this afternoon. The final game graph (unofficially) looks like this:

The Marlins newly acquired Jorge Julio pretty much blew the entire game for them with a WPA of -.903 wins. The Nationals low point in the game was in the bottom of the 6th with 2 outs when they had a mere 3.7% chance of winning the game.

But let’s draw our attention to one very specific play at the end of the game: the sacrifice bunt when the score was 6-5 in the bottom of the 9th. Before the sacrifice bunt there was a runner on first with no outs. The Nationals at the time had a 34.4% chance of winning. Manny Acta, the Nationals new manager, had Felipe Lopez hit a sacrifice bunt. It was successful, but it didn’t improve their chances of winning the game. Instead of increasing their chances, it actually decreased it by 6% to give the Nationals a 28.8% chance of winning.

If you were watching the game on FanGraphs, you got to see exactly why the following is true:

To quote The Book: “With a non-pitcher at the plate, and a runner on first and no outs, advancing the runner in exchange for an out is a terrible strategy. It significantly reduces the RE in almost any run environment. It also reduces the WE in almost any run environment, even late in a close game.”

Fortunately for Nationals fans (while unfortunate my hopes and dreams), they ended up winning anyway.