Comments on: 2008 ALCS: Same Picture So Far http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2008-alcs-same-picture-so-far/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Sun, 12 Feb 2012 23:34:21 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Lee Gregory http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2008-alcs-same-picture-so-far/#comment-48182 Lee Gregory Wed, 22 Oct 2008 03:58:12 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2008-alcs-same-picture-so-far/#comment-48182 I find it more interesting to re-plot the whole WE data set converted into and ALCSeries win expectancy. To do this I have to make a simplistic assumption though that the outcome of each game, going into it, is a 50/50 proposition. Then I can calculate the expected series win probabilities at the beginning and end of each game, and convert the game WE for each event to a series WE. An example can be seen at http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?s=&showtopic=37598&view=findpost&p=1956974 I find it more interesting to re-plot the whole WE data set converted into and ALCSeries win expectancy. To do this I have to make a simplistic assumption though that the outcome of each game, going into it, is a 50/50 proposition. Then I can calculate the expected series win probabilities at the beginning and end of each game, and convert the game WE for each event to a series WE.

An example can be seen at http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?s=&showtopic=37598&view=findpost&p=1956974

]]> By: sibpin http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2008-alcs-same-picture-so-far/#comment-47981 sibpin Tue, 21 Oct 2008 04:11:52 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2008-alcs-same-picture-so-far/#comment-47981 Scappy, what's your basis for using 4 as a WPA multiplier? I've set up a table to describe what WPA multipliers should be, based on the difference in probabilty a team wins the World Series before/after a given game. That data, plus a description of the Red Sox' performance, is available at http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?showtopic=37598&st=340 Scappy, what’s your basis for using 4 as a WPA multiplier? I’ve set up a table to describe what WPA multipliers should be, based on the difference in probabilty a team wins the World Series before/after a given game. That data, plus a description of the Red Sox’ performance, is available at http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?showtopic=37598&st=340

]]> By: Scappy http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2008-alcs-same-picture-so-far/#comment-47842 Scappy Mon, 20 Oct 2008 14:08:00 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2008-alcs-same-picture-so-far/#comment-47842 It would be nice to see a WPA graph that instead of going from -0.5 to 0.5 it goes from -2.0 to 2.0. So any event in game 7 is effectively multiplied by 4 to reflect the added importance of the game. It would be nice to see a WPA graph that instead of going from -0.5 to 0.5 it goes from -2.0 to 2.0. So any event in game 7 is effectively multiplied by 4 to reflect the added importance of the game.

]]> By: lookatthosetwins http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2008-alcs-same-picture-so-far/#comment-47785 lookatthosetwins Mon, 20 Oct 2008 06:45:11 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2008-alcs-same-picture-so-far/#comment-47785 It would be interesting the see a comparison of the Yanks/Red sox series from 04. The Yankees had to have at least a 99.3% chance of winning that series at some point. It would be interesting the see a comparison of the Yanks/Red sox series from 04. The Yankees had to have at least a 99.3% chance of winning that series at some point.

]]> By: billso http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2008-alcs-same-picture-so-far/#comment-47758 billso Mon, 20 Oct 2008 00:45:10 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2008-alcs-same-picture-so-far/#comment-47758 I knew the Rays really should have finished off the BoSox in Game 5... this just makes it painfully obvious. I knew the Rays really should have finished off the BoSox in Game 5… this just makes it painfully obvious.

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