2008 Stats: Now Updated
The site is now up to date with 2008 stats and will of course be updated nightly. The new pitch data usually runs a day or two behind and that’s why all the pitchers in yesterday’s game have undefined pitch type and velocity data.
Couple quick reminders:
- We’ll have live win probability data all season long including the all-star game and playoffs.
- The live play-by-play data is different from the data that becomes “official” in the nightly loads, which often causes WPA values to change slightly from those found in the live data.
David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.
I’m curious about the WPA effect of Emil Brown being caught between 2nd and 3rd after doubling Daric Barton in in the bottom of the 10th in the opener. It doesn’t appear from the graph that this was separated out from the RBI double itself. According to the Markov model for 2007 from the “Hardball Times Annual”, runner on 2nd, 1 out is worth .743 runs, while nobody on, 2 out is worth .107, so his blunder cost the A’s .636 in (average) run expectancy. However, those figures ignore the inning/score.
Can you give the WPA figure for the A’s if Brown had held at 2nd?
Thanks,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Alan: It wasn’t separated out in the graph or my play log, but there’s a possibility the game will be updated to show that later. In any case, the win expectancy for the A’s if he had stayed on 2nd would have jumped to about 29%, but since he was out it’s about about 5%. His blunder cost the A’s about -.24 wins (which is a lot). Brown was accurately credited with -.064 wins on the play since the win expectancy before he doubled in the run was only 11.5%.
Thanks, David, for the quick reply. That makes sense. Of course, he turned around and hit a 3-run homer the next night, so I guess they’ll keep him for a while.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
David, do you have a definition of win probability? how is it calculated? I am wondering in particular if it takes into account the strength of each team. Let’s say the Rays are playing the Red Sox and the next day the Yankees play the Red Sox, and there are identical situations in each game. would the Yankees win probability be higher than the Rays in an identical situation, simply because the Yankees are better?